 This is covering the spread part of the fan dual podcast network It is the first night of the NBA play-in tournament for 2023 we've got the Hawks in the heat the Wolves and the Lakers we're gonna break down both those games with Brandon Goodula for today getting his read on those games from a betting perspective and Get you sent for this week's PGA tour event the RBC heritage welcome on into covering the spread That's right here on the fan dual podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire joined here as mentioned by Brandon Goodula He is a senior managing editor of number fire calm Brandon Talked about this yesterday on the show in recapping last week But John Rom a winner for you at plus 950 so Congratulations on that. How are you doing today? I'm good. Yeah, Rom was the guy who just showed some value. It was Boy, I'll say this much. I was really hope really rooting for him for multiple reasons Four reasons inside the top five potentially yeah You know it was it was interesting to see Brooks Capco back. It was obviously Fascinating to see Phil Mickelson play the way that he did on Sunday, but yeah Rom had that look in his eye. I think he He wanted to make a statement and he he sure did He was two to one between the third and fourth round on Sunday Data golf had him at 37% so I did take him at two to one not quite 950 But happy about it regardless, but like you said he kind of he's playing well That's one of the best things about like a favorite is yeah, that's sure like mathematically and Just practically that is a huge difference, but it's also kind of like not You know if if he's if he's in contention You can maybe up that unit and kind of get the same return as you would on a single it It's not perfect, but yeah, yeah, if you missed out on Rom Hopefully you caught him during the tournament. It is weird though because like I Feel a lot different about hitting a two-to-one golf bet than I do about like a two-to-one baseball money line like if I had a 200 baseball money line, I'm losing my mind if I lose a 200 Like outright for golf. I'm like, man, bad that terrible. What was I thinking like moron? 33% implied odds to win you idiot So different sentiment there, but rom back in the field once again as people talk about that later on the first Well, there are things off with the NBA play-in tournament to get you ready for both of tonight's game But first a reminder to make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast We got some more NBA talk tomorrow along with NFL draft discussion via dr. Ed Feng last more baseball coming up this week I'll talk some NASCAR. I'm sure at some point Shocker there more NBA discussion plenty good stuff all right here in the number fire The covering the spread podcast feed only one slip-up on which podcasts I'm talking about so far for this week By covering the spread wherever you get your podcast and over on the Fandall YouTube page The NBA playoffs are here. You can turn crossovers into cash with Fandall Just visit Fandall right now and place a five dollar bet You'll get instant hundred and fifty bucks in bonus bets win or lose There is no better place to bet all the playoff action than America's number one sports book Just go to Fandall and sign up to get a hundred and fifty bucks in bonus bets when you place your first five dollar bet Fandall official sports betting partner of the NBA gambling problem call 1-800 gambler or was the fandall dot com slash rg hope is here a gambling helpline ma.org or call 800 327 5050 for 247 support in Massachusetts in New York 1-8778 open wire techs open wide must be 21 plus and president select states Fandall is offering online sports Wadring in Kansas under an agreement with Kansas Dark Casino LLC Bonus issued is not with reliable bonus bets that expire seven days after receipt Or strictest apply see full terms at fandall dot com slash sports book 1-800 2707 1 1 7 what state is that? Where did I skip to? I have no idea what state I just read anyway. Let's go back to Arizona 1-800 next step or text next step to 53342 in Connecticut 1-888-789-7777 Over the ccpg.org slash chat in Indiana 1-800 9 with it in Wyoming in Kansas 1-800-522-4700 in Kansas KS gambling help calm Louisiana is 1-877-770 stop in Maryland MD gambling help org in in New York in West Virginia 1-800 gambler net they change the order of the states and it's totally messed up my flow. So it's it's on me hashtag no excuses But I've I'm not playing like a champion today. So there we go mess up the name of the podcast mess at the states So let's talk now about some NBA the play out play in tournament playoff play in whatever Oh my gosh play in tournament begins a into the NBA Let's talk about both those games here in just one second the brain Let's start things off here by talking about the broad adjustments. You're making for the playoffs We do see differences between the regular season and the playoffs So from a handicapping perspective on your end, what adjustments are you making as we get the play in games underway tonight? Yes, so honestly I'll go away from a model a bit more for a few reasons one You know teams shorten their benches and so the the types of samples we get Over a full season on a per game basis are going to be a little bit different than what we get in the playoffs where starters are playing elevated minutes. Therefore fewer fewer rotations fewer possessions from reserve level players. So it does become a little bit harder In that regard, that's not to say that I won't lean on my model because I definitely will and I Do already exclude low leverage possessions credit to pvp stats calm there for for that data Again, great resource if you want to look at on-off splits a little bit more detail You know accounting for like leverage on possessions Maybe who's who's playing any game or who's off the court, you know Sometimes for some of these teams that we're going to talk about it's hard to find like a large sample that we want to trust for Tonight's game, but you know, we'll get there. Well, once we start breaking down those games, but honestly for me I will You know, I think that I think the best part about playoff basketball is like you see you see a series on fold You see matchups you see the way the teams adjust and frankly look I I use my models for for everything for golf basketball just everything but basketball is the sport that I know best From a you know a viewing standpoint. I played at the most. I just know it most and so I'm not saying it's a necessarily positive but I do kind of Use a little bit of my personal knowledge and assumptions to kind of impact things so that doesn't help You know people listening necessarily, but I do think that it's a situation where you know You're you're going to be looking at samples of teams playing against different teams and then trying to put that into how they're playing against a specific team over a Seven-game series, but you know as far as the data goes, I think there's another tweak that we have to be aware of Since 2016 and if you exclude that the COVID season home teams play better in the playoffs Then in the regular season the regular season of fifty seven point three percent win rate Average point differential of two point three cover rate of exactly fifty percent In the playoffs, it's up to sixty one and a half percent win rate Average point differential of four point seven points cover rate of almost fifty two percent I know Sighting cover rates is a bit tricky because in a perfect world. Well, I guess in in a perfect world for us There are no adjustments. Yeah, but you know, it is what it is and you know, we also kind of see that We see an impact in terms of over-unders in the regular season there Fifty point one percent over rate, but in the playoffs forty seven point three percent and a reason for that is the league-wide pace ticks down The league average pace last season in the regular season was ninety eight point two Possessions per game was down to ninety five and a half in the playoffs even Even if you just exclude the a lot of like bad teams play up tempo and that kind of skews things but Just the playoffs teams themselves average ninety seven point nine possessions in the regular season and then again down So like we're looking at like a two and a half ish percent Pace decrease across the past few years. So paces down it takes out a few possessions here and there for each team And you know, if you just kind of have ever watched NBA playoff basketball, you know Things slow down keeps things a little bit tighter generally, but blowouts definitely exist whenever teams are lopsided So I would say the biggest adjustments for me are If I don't have a good read kind of lean on the home team to kind of bring it but also You know, no one loves watching unders that that they bet but I think that's generally the way that I go as well Yeah, I had a Patrick Corbin under last night and like it was right around my bedside because I'm old and I was like Refreshing like please pull him. Please pull him. Please pull him. They did it was good But like hundred percent relate to that now you mentioned the possession change the pace change you said that you don't lean as much on your model in the postseason as other times but That's something you can't account for than a model So when you were running your model for these games, are you baking in reduced pace kind of an assumption for these teams? Yeah, I scaled back pace So I use the same process where I pull up, you know account for injuries and Basically health, right? Like, you know, you don't want to look at the Lakers full season splits They're a different team whenever they have LeBron whenever they have Anthony Davis They also obviously made some some trades tonight like Minnesota is gonna be a bit shorthanded So, you know, all that's the same but I do factor in an expected decrease in pace In a very slight uptick with home court. I don't want to kind of get too aggressive there But yeah, it is factored in and so while I said I don't lean on the model as much. I still I'm gonna use it But there's like a five to ten percent, you know, I'll say I test here just because I You know, I want to take out all of the emotion when it comes to this But I can't help but think sometimes I can figure out how things are gonna trend And how teams might adjust as series unfold. It doesn't really apply for tonight's matchups necessarily but yes as series unfold I kind of Let my my thoughts creep in a little bit more and I do think in an ideal world That's how we do things as betters if we feel good enough better eye test abilities I think that that is an important thing to factor in I'm a very much numbers-based guy, too, but I realized there is value in my test like I I've watched the Bristol dirt races. I'm not betting Kevin Harvick to win based on watching those if my model shows value So I think in an ideal world we're filtering in both and I think that it's nice that you have enough confidence there to do That too, so let's talk about tonight's games We've got the heat and the Hawks first right now The heat are five point favorites at Fandals sportsbook total here is 228 and a half Brandon. Let's start things off with this one. Where are you seeing value here at Fandals? Yes, the heat and again, this is one of those spots in the playoffs. You can look like regular season Series and see if that's something that you want to factor in I really don't but you know while I'm here the heat did win Three of the four games. They played twice in March Miami won both of those, but all these teams were within eight points three of them were exactly an eight point differential The most recent game was a two-point win for Miami if you look at the heat with Jimmy Butler the 35 and 29 but an adjusted point differential Which is just my own metric for how I adjust for teams of point nine So not even a full point there But that's definitely something that like we got a factor in for the heat and then for the Hawks There are all the memes and all the jokes that they are Super average and that is the case like it's it's funny how much of their splits how much they hover 500 is just accurate, but In games with Trey young Clint Capella and Dijonte Murray 30 and 25 adjusted point differential point eight So a little bit better there It's something again. You kind of want to factor in so that being said both teams are pretty average And I know that we talked about home port advantage, but how much is that going to matter? I don't in my model. I don't see it mattering enough to want to go With the heat to cover Because the heat have been playing really slowly Not a whole lot of points despite the fact that the total is two twenty eight and a half so I think this game is a Sort of slower low scoring game, which makes it easier For you know just to take the points for the Hawks, so for me I am on the Hawks plus five as well as the under I Don't know why that's going up frankly, but I think it's Probably got a lot to do with the fact that people love to Bet overs and these are pretty public games to given they are the the standalone NBA games of the night There were no NBA games to bet on yesterday So there's a lot of public attention on these for sure and that can lead to Potentially less efficient markets. I know they're the more money that isn't a market typically the sharper it is But during NFL playoffs and stuff like that We talked to John Shearer in a fan dual sports book and he said you'll often see Less efficient lines in play up playoff games because there's more public money in the market that can influence things play a more Outsized role there. So two twenty eight and a half the total right now under is minus one ten I'm guessing you feel better about that than the Hawks plus five correct So it's one of those where like Historically like the seven seeds have won these games But for me, I think that these two teams have played pretty close in the past and I think that the the fact that Atlanta is pretty healthy I'm kind of up on them right now just to keep it close and I just sort of feel like it's gonna be The type of game where it's not released. We're not really sweating the over-under. I hate to say that kind of stuff But I feel like it's gonna be super low scoring and then in that regard. I always have a hard time Not taking the points when I think it could be really close in those scoring Yeah, you can and those two things are correlated fewer points means less or lower odds to cover a larger Sprout five is decently large. You can see in game parlay them. It's plus two eight two forty eight So Fan dual is privy to the fact that those two things are correlated getting plus two forty with those two combined At minus 110 apiece, but you can play that way if you decide you want to I'm not typically a parlay person as we've discussed You're on the show, but you have that option you decide you really feel good about both those ankles for the hawks and the heat Let's discuss the second game now That is the Wolves at the Lakers a lot of moving pieces here for the Wolves. No Rudy go bear due to a suspension Jaden McDaniels has a broken hand fighting a wall typically does not go well for the fight II Right now the spread is eight and a half that is lengthened quite a bit I think you'd open it like five or so so it's it's lengthened quite a bit total in this game is 233 What do you see in this one Brandon? Yeah, and in defense of McDaniels I think he was trying to fight like a plastic curtain and there was a wall behind it I think that's the report that I saw so I mean the plastic curtain also is not gonna put up a huge fight So that that's a little lopsided he went from you know a lopsided fight to one that he's not gonna win Well, I'm sorry the wrong way But yeah, this this you know There's a lot of movement here the the over-unders going up a lot the spread is widening primarily due to the fact of Minnesota's absences, but also for the Lakers LeBron James Anthony Davis D'Angelo Russell all listed is probable Going back to Minnesota. It's hard to find a good sample for them one that has you know Enough possessions to feel really good with you can you can kind of make it work But you know Carl Anthony Towns is missed a lot of time Adam Mike Conley go bear as out So it's it's a bit tough But the splits that I have sort of settled on have them as about a league average team and then for the Lakers like again, they have that trio healthy and Not a whole ton of sample in terms of You know this trio being together, but there's seven and one in games they've played together Raw point differential of over 12. You'd like to see that So factoring that in I'm I'm with clearly the the public On the Lakers, I don't really see how they don't win this game. The problem is the spread is is climbing To a degree that makes me a little bit uncomfortable. I do have the Lakers favored by double digits. So I'm still fine with eight and a half Seven and a half was was where I initially saw it But again, I think the better play here is the under once again. I don't You know, we might be playing in the angle of oh Rudy's out. Therefore their defense is bad but even with him out It's not been that bad over the sample that I can kind of pinpoint is the best one to use So above average defense there same thing for the Lakers especially so Including the pace decrease, you know expectations. I have the under here If I'm betting the spread I still I still think the Lakers Minus eight and a half works if you're a money line person. I really like the Lakers money line, but Yeah, I just I hope we can get this before it gets up because this one like this spread might even might even grow Yeah, as you mentioned seven yesterday when I sent you the rundown It's now eight and a half you told me to take it when it was seven. So luckily I did there. Thank you for that I appreciate it total at 233 and it sounds like You want both unders here and you could that situation where Parlias are not bad bets that both bets are good individually or if there's a tie between them And if you think there's a tie between them where the pace lends itself towards unders I think there is a consideration you made for potentially tying those together plus 264 the part if you were to parliate both of the unders or these two games across tonight, but I Think in situation where even if it was going up You can have a decent amount of confidence in what your model is saying and feel confident in the under despite You know betting against the market is usually bad But I think in the situation the logic that you have is good, which is why I personally am way to trust it myself Look everything comes down to for me. Can I be logical about it? I'm probably logical to a fault where sometimes I miss out on things that I feel like I have a good grasp on So I'm gonna try to get a little bit more open in the NBA playoffs and entrust myself a little bit more but yeah, I think it just is again, we'll use that word logical to Generally not not exclusively not just it, you know, but generally target unders in the playoffs. Yeah, so again Under 233 is where Brandon likes that under 228 and a half at the first game Hawks plus five potentially there And then also the Lakers money line minus 375 at Fandall Sportsbook right now That's going to conclude our NBA discussion for today. Well more NBA discussion tomorrow here on the show with Dr. Ed Feng we'll talk more about the play-in gains and the playoffs as things roll along for right now, though Let's talk about some golf We had some fun with Augusta last week and this week it's another elevated field for the RBC heritage Brandon there at Harbor Town Golf links. What should we know about this course before placing our bets over at Fandall? Yeah, to keep it simple It's about as opposite of a week-to-week Switches we can get coming from Augusta, which is long and demanding off the tee Harvard Town is pretty much the complete opposite stroke scan off the tee has a weaker than usual correlation with stroke scan total But we see an uptick in the importance of iron play and a wedge play putting is about average. So more or less last week we gave a Bit of a lean toward Golfers who hit it far off the tee, you know, we talked We talked, you know, why that wasn't the only stat that mattered But this week off the tee play doesn't matter a ton. This one's more about Your approach play you're around the green play and you're putting You just can't really overpower the place. And so what that does is puts a lot of golfers who are short hitters in the conversation that does not Mean that golfers who hit it far off the tee are bad plays or get discounted a lot Yes, some of their advantage is mitigated, but they're still hitting shorter clubs into greens from You know because of how far they hit their clubs relative to a shorter hitter like that still translates over But these greens are tiny second smallest on average Compare only pebble beach has smaller greens. So you're gonna miss greens You're gonna have to get up and down you're gonna have to save par whenever you can so this is kind of listed is like the The perfect remedy for the distance problem in golf and then I think there is a distance problem in golf But this course specifically like it's a good all-around test and it's not just about drivers. So Lot of guys in play for this week as a result Yeah, and hitting a small green is easier if you're closer to it So the distance can still help But I think that the overall takeaway of more guys are in play is important That does play into the betting markets here as we see both John Robin Scottie Schaeffler plus 850 to win the event right now at Fanville Sports Book and with no roar You'd think that'd be shorter, but with more guys in play that does make a lot of sense looking at the outright spranden Here for the RPC heritage any value you see right now based on your numbers Yeah, more guys in play, but also rom specifically He's gonna have to get right back on it after winning the master Super simple to brush off winning your second major and putting that green jacket on and stuff like that and for him I mean it was such a like a whirlwind With with all the the history of you know, his heroes from Spain winning the Masters, so I You know, I'm not gonna get there with rom specifically this week But yeah, otherwise, I'm looking a little bit down the list Long shots are in play to a degree But for me, I kind of I'm noticing a few names who haven't necessarily won well two guys have won kind of recently but The the thing I love about the model that I that I use is just it reminds me of who's good And just maybe who hasn't won and therefore where the odds are longer than it should be but for me Zander Shafley 25 to 1 a name that I mentioned a lot, but T 10 at Augusta last week while having a pretty neutral putter Was fourth and T to Green play last week fifth and approach specifically. He's 19th and putting over the past 50 rounds He's third over the past 50 rounds according to data golf and stroke skin approach through putting so really good fit for his yander And I think he's just kind of he's gonna be lingering as always So I like Xander at 25 to 1 Also a name that doesn't sound like of course fit based on the fact that I said like drivers not super vital But Tony Fiena 27 to 1 He is fourth and approach through putting over the past 50 rounds So if you take driver, which is one of his biggest strengths out of the equation He's fourth in the field and just you know irons wedges and putter, which is is super Super sick and it's another situation where like the odds are getting longer on Tony because just hasn't won super recently as it there's an exact kind of situations that My model is designated more or less to remind me that these guys are Very good and not just chase the high-end super high-end finishes and for Fina. He's been like living around T20 That's good form. He can break through and then the third guy. I'm targeting It's kind of a coin flip between Max Homa at 29 and Tom Kim at 37 I'm gonna go Tom Kim because the odds are better, but really like Homa Talk more about him in a second But Tom Kim great course fit extremely accurate off the tee great irons when he's on and You know didn't really see him in coverage last week, but T16 good. Yeah T16 at Augusta last week gaining an approach. That was his first trip there So good performance for a debutant. This will be his first trip to harbour town if I'm not mistaken But it's not it's not quite the same level of daunting this there to learn this course, but yeah Should hit a lot of fairways and then being great position to you know Gain a lot of greens on the field because he is that precise. So I think Tom Kim at 37 to 1 another name that just probably Would be long or sorry would be shorter if he had like more Top 10s top 5s, but I think that there's a lot to like about Tom Kim for this week and Tom Kim longer tournaments I don't have had a lot of those I think we're seeing him get back to Showing that top-end form last week in a in a good showing at Augusta is really intriguing Is he had a bit of a low leading into Augusta? But 37 to 1 a good number on him other ones you mentioned Tony Fina 27 and Xander Shafley at 25 to 1 what about the not-outrights the menu here? Not quite as expansive as we get for like the Masters, but still a good number of options any non-outrights you like this week Yeah, just some finishing positions. I mentioned Max Homa the top 10. Is he is he plus 360? He is Yeah, plus 360 I have that as a good number I mentioned like Fina being top 4 in stroke scene approach around the green and putting combined Homa's third Homa's like main weakness is the driver and so makes a lot of sense from a profile standpoint To things that Homa can kind of bounce back. I know that he'd love to shake off a bad performance at another major but I think that the outright numbers a 29 a little bit shorter than I'd like to see of a plus 360 to top 10 very nice for me this and Then I got two top 20s both at plus 450 very similar profiles With Andrew Putnam and Brendan Todd both more course fit plays They're awful off the tee generally which is fine because they're accurate. They're just not long They got top 10 combined short name Which for me is you're stroking around the green in your stroking and putting combined over the past 50 rounds according to data golf They got kind of like mid-level iron. So that's fine. A lot of guys are going to miss these small greens anyway so It's gonna be about hitting fairways hitting greens whenever you can and whenever you don't Saving par what you do through having you know those good wedges And in the good putter so put them course form pretty bad But the form better is is good So I'm not like worried about that Todd was 26 here last year all we're asking for is top 20 So I think those are good numbers and a model agrees with that at plus 450. Yeah, and I put when put them doesn't have the course form I think the plus 450 is a forgiving enough number word. That's accounted for I think that that makes him pretty enticing So the finishing numbers Brandon likes max homo plus 360 top 10 Andrew Putnam and Brendan Todd top 20 both at plus 450 That is all the time that we have here for today on covering the spread breaking down the NBA play-in games and The RBC Heritage Brandon want to thank you once again for Swinging by for today. Have fun watching the playing games for tonight. Good luck to you with RBC Heritage as well We'll talk to you once again next week Yeah, good luck everyone. Enjoy it and we'll see you next week And hopefully we can go back to back with another winner as with wrong last week find Brandon on Twitter I can do a 13 find all of his PGA sims over at number fire.com. I am on Twitter at Jim sonnis JMS a NNES you can also follow the fan dual podcast network at fan dual podcast back with dr. Ed Fang once again tomorrow talking about NBA Turner or the NBA playoffs and some NFL draft as well This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network