 Hi yw'r ffordd, 7.52. yma yw Llywodraeth 13 ddweud. Roedd yn y gallu gwneud ar y cyflwynhau. Mae'r cyflwynhau sydd gennych y dyfodol ar unrhyw o'r wych o'r awdurdod ar y golf o'r Oman, yw'r ymgofau'r arfer, yw'r tynnu oed, mae'r cyflwynhau oedol ar gyfer y chart, mae'r cyflwynhau yma yw'r awdurdod, mae'n rhaid i'r bobl sydd yn 3.2% ar y pryd yn y prif o WTI ac yw'r ysgrifennu 5150, erbyn eu hunain i $53. Rydyn ni wedi gweithio'r cwrdd a'i werthwyr ymddangos i'r rhoddi, ac mae'r perthyn calidadau gwahanol o'r fawr o oed. Rhyw gweithio'r arweigio yn y llwyr, rydyn ni wedi gweithio'r erbyn o'r perthyn, yr oedd erbyn sfath a eitid. Rydyn ni'n gweithio yma, ac mae'r gweithio'i gwahanol oed, latter board and following yesterday's DOEs which saw price tumble again. If we have a quick look at why this is important, it comes a month after an attack on four oil tankers of the UAE in the Gulf of Donbé, the US blaming Iran for that attack. Then again today there had been two explosions where these oil tankers had sent distress signals. Mae gwasanaeth i wneud o'r bywyr neu ddweudio. Mae'n gweinio'n ddweudio, a mae'n gweinio i'r chyflwynt fel o'r 7 o'r clwrs. Felly, fel y gallwn i'n gweinio, mae'n lleolol yn 51-50, mae'n golygu roi ddim yn agor. A llunio'n gweinio'n fwrdd, mae'n gyfnod o'r Blwngbergau yn y TV, mae yna'n gallu gweld i'r ardal, yn y cyfrïdd o'r hoffi ar y noeg gweithio, mae'n hyn yn yw ddiwrnod o belly o'i wahanol o'r hoffi i'r hunain sydd gwaith yn blodd i'w amlŷ, sy'n hyn i'r hoffi ar lwn, ac mae'n hefyd yn dod o'r hoffi i brwynau bod gallwn gwneud hynny o'r hoffi y mhag oherau fyddai, yna eu chwm yn ymgyrch yn ddiogelol friendiau, ac mae'n ddod o'n 7 o'n 10 o'n 10 o'n 10 o'n 10 o'n 1 o'r hoffi nid yn oed. ganwsrwydd a gweld yn y tychwb yr unrhyw mewn grwraith, dwi'n dweud o'r awr hwllgo diolch fawr. Felly hwnnw yn dweud i ddweud o'r awr hwll heatingfyniad, fel yw'r gweithio'r cwyrd, byddai'n dweud i'r rydyn maen nhw'n cyfeirio maeth yn y maith. Mae'r hollio maelırd yma yma o wneud. Yna'r holl o'r holl ymlaenâu'r holl o'r holl mwy, rydym ni'n gweithio'n gweithio newydd a'r gweithio'r bod yn cael y Cymru'r bai, fe wedi bod yn ein gafodau pleidio yn fferm ac os yn ddechrau'xfawr, ac mae'n gweithio'r gweithio'r gweithio'r gweithio i ddechrau'u rhai ar y stym First Prince. Rhaid digon weld oed yng nghydfawr hefyd mewn bai, a i'n gweithio'r cyfwyr ar y sesion. five minute it won't take you long to work out where this candle was on this deal not getting passed so the idea behind the deal was that it would have given the opponents of a no deal brexit the chance to table legalization to fought the UK leaving without any agreement on the 31st october deadline so say that was going to be the case and we were going to leave no deal labour would have basically been able to attempt to stop it that is now not the case and you can see from where that was released yesterday just before five o'clock we had a decent push lower down to the lows of 127 36 on the futures starting at 127 87 so 50 tick move I think that's fair enough I think it we would have seen a much bigger reaction to the upside if it had been the opposite if labour had got that through we'd have seen a decent push on however not to be the case in the pound since then well it's if anything just drifted a bit lower I did say to the trainees in the first stage of our program yesterday how I was surprised it didn't really move a bit more you are starting to see that just drift down a bit this morning of course today we we do as well have the the first rounds of the the conservative ballot if you like so the that all starts to kick off today and expecting the result sometime after one o'clock so trading the pound today there's no 930 data so you're probably still looking for a follow through from the the labour decision or the labour cross party vote yesterday which was negative for the pound so probably still looking for a short as we build up into this this ballot any comments that obviously come out any leaks perhaps could move things around but in in all truth I think most likelihood is that Boris is going to have a healthy lead here it's going to look like he's nailed on and I would argue that there wouldn't really be a trading opportunity for that when would there be well if some of the other candidates had a healthier healthier number of votes and it might indicate a Brexit decision elsewhere come the 31st of October so that all begins to today the last 10 or the final 10 rivals facing the first ballot of those Tory MPs conservators will begin the process to choose the new leader and the next Prime Minister this morning voting as we said will take place in a secret ballot in the Commons and expected result just after one o'clock this afternoon so afternoon will that will be the the main focus in the early part of that any of the 10 candidates who fails to secure 17 votes will be eliminated now if we have a quick look over at this pie pie chart here you can see the percentage of and this is from yesterday of where the Conservative MPs are looking to who they are looking to back Boris Johnson with 80 so he's safely through as his go hunt and dominant Robin potentially javid as well but you can see the others the the remaining five there all below the 17 now there hasn't been 100% of people that have put there they're backing behind someone I think of this tweet it's about 70 80% I'll confirm that in a moment but you can see anyone that doesn't get 17 votes would be dismissed so that's worth thinking about later I think if Rory Stewart he's the main one if you're if you're looking for the pound to push higher here Rory Stewart is one that you want to get through you want him to to get that 17 that might be a bit of a shock to the market okay maybe there is some room for this soft the Brexit but after the vote we saw yesterday I would be incredibly surprised the market would be pretty surprised as well so I don't really see that happening but of course that's what moves markets the most the unexpected so one to keep an eye out come one o'clock so any of those 10 candidates who don't get the 17 votes they'll be gone see you later and we move on and do the same again next week actually and then the two most popular MPs moving to a run-off of Tory party members the winner of the contest and of course this you know when it's the final two it goes to the 100 and whatever thousand conservative members and they would vote if we're going by what is on here looking like it's going to be Boris Johnson and then between Hunt and Gove I think that is what I would expect as well of course things can change it might be after the first round those who put their name into you know Ledgson or Stewart or Hancock they may of course well their course will have to then change their votes to someone else and we might start getting a couple of stories about someone you know putting all their their votes behind you know one of the not well not the front run of Boris Johnson but the others and we could start to see things develop from there but today I think the only opportunity is going to be if maybe Dominic Raab gets a lot more than expected who's favouring of the the no deal perhaps more than Boris Johnson at the moment after his comments yesterday or and that would obviously leave to the pound going lower or if Rory Stewart gets through and I think that we'll see pound going higher I'd say those are the opportunities today anyway ahead of this week's vote of course next week it continues and then the 22nd of June will be the the vote where the majority what the Conservative members will effectively vote on the final two and then expected to be announced the winner and the next prime minister on the 22nd of July doesn't leave them much time to get things through of course with your your late August recess and everything that's going on in in September October with Europe in the the new European commissioner being elected well doesn't leave much time before 31st of August so who's looking like they're going to get through Gove, Javid, Raab, Hunt and of course Boris as well those ones that are just struggling a bit Hancock, Stewart, Ledson, Harper and McVeigh they're hoping to to get through and then build momentum if you like to into the next vote I really really wouldn't be surprised if it's just those five if it's just those five and potentially Hancock as he's on 15 as well um well I mean time will tell let's have a quick look over at the bookies odds on uh and your odds checker and if we just say use lab bricks for some reason sky better have taken it off lab bricks have got Boris Johnson one to two so that's the the shortest he's been certainly for a while hunt and ledson unbelief is I don't really understand why ledson's third favourite according to to um well to lab bricks it tends to one so if we're looking here goes at 12 hunt five I mean I guess it makes it ledson I'd be surprised looking at certainly this from from Guido forks who I definitely would recommend following doesn't look like they're going to get much way through so probably not the best opportunity there to uh to be back in her um reaction of the market if we have a quick look over at the pound let's just go through those scenarios I was mentioning Rory Stuart through I think we get back up to at least the pivot low of yesterday and maybe beyond uh Dominic Raab perhaps if he was to you know take a big chunk out of that uh 80 of Boris which would you know when you've got the public backing uh already uh that'd be quite unusual I would say you get down to 127 uh s2 126 90 uh relatively quickly but for now price contains and going back moving off the the back of uh a labour decision the labour vote yesterday which uh obviously provided a bit of an opportunity the bigger one would have been the other way uh round um equities yesterday let's have a quick look over the charts you can see just over the last few minutes we have been drifting higher we put this on the 60 minute we have been drifting lower we have been drifting lower and uh there's a good good little chart here from from Bloomberg as I'll just bring this in um global stocks catching breath after seven day rally it's a bit of that it I wouldn't really say necessarily there's a massive game changing reason that stocks are now drifting lower uh the s&p a great little uh wind streak for for this month so far nice push higher 2900 bit of resistance failure to push push on we're just drifting down uh a bit but you know if we take where we're trading now well it's exactly where price closed last Friday nothing to to worry about uh at the moment yesterday was weighed down by energy tech and financial stocks we saw treasuries push on a bit gold as well uh certainly into the beginning of the afternoon although it did come a bit lower last night uh before pushing on today so relatively flat to be honest yesterday I wouldn't say there was much in the way of of a big move uh for for stocks um obviously we've we've oil pushing down uh yesterday to the back of the the session that did weigh on things certainly overnight but if we have a quick look over at all just to bring us up to date again we're still nicely above where we were this morning following the the gulf of Oman uh fire or the reports of that or the tankers that are are on fire um interestingly this was reported uh yes then obviously and then uh again released on the wires this morning trump says he has no deadline for imposing fervor tariffs on china he's got the market in his back pocket he will get that china deal through when he wants i firmly firmly believe that and for me this is just saying it it's not right now uh g20 back end of the month could be uh we'll come on to a couple of tweets by the global times uh um ji well hu ji jin i don't want to say his name wrong hu ji jin a couple of comments he said uh about that uh about the deal even getting done at g20 that's an opportunity uh it looks like the last couple of days if the last couple of days are anything to go by uh things will just be drifting lower into that but listen i i honestly do think come the the back end of the year we will have a deal in place and it's going to be fabulous as uh as uh or tremendous as trump would say but yeah here's the headline trump says he has no deadline for imposing um the tariffs on china he was saying this to uh reporters i have no deadline my deadline is what's up here and then he pointed to his head uh in typical trump fashion uh he told reporters yesterday we'll figure out uh the deadline those comments to to be aware of um from from hu ji jin as far as i know china's state media will publish more heavyweight commentaries criticising the us and demonstrating china's determination it's rare to see scaven attacks against the us and state media this shows beijing is preparing for china us ties getting further worsening so that's something to just to think about today look you've got tenots pushing on gold are higher stocks are mixed maybe this morning preferring the opportunity to look to go short today last couple of days trump hasn't been too positive he hasn't been too positive so if anything favouring that to drift lower today but i do think there'll be a good run at uh all-time highs again soon um another tweet from yesterday more recent one from hu ji jin from information i have access to there is no sign that china is relaxing its countermeasures against the us trade war chinese basically have no trust in the mild signals the us side sent occasionally will there be a breakthrough at g20 i dare not to be optimistic at this moment it's worth having uh you know a look at these these tweets and following uh huji jin who uh only really a couple of i'd say a month ago wasn't uh as important but his tweets have talked about their squawked about it's definitely someone to follow if you don't already and i'm on the up by a twitter account and i'm going to follow them right now um to to make sure that we do got to practice what you preach of course going back to that that trump headlin of course trump had threatened to raise uh tariffs on chinese goods if ji uh doesn't meet him at the g20 so that would be obviously a big move of that effectively i would say isn't really priced in we've had a decent recovery of late so if they were not to get something done at g20 you would come down lower but of course if he was to implement them trump would still say they have a fabulous relationship that he received an amazing letter and they're going to get the best deal done uh ever uh in typical trump fashion if it's bad let's make it good um yesterday as well will boros uh the the commerce secretary played down the chance of a meeting as well um and of course uh as yesterday's inflation number was was worse um also stepping up the uh the criticism of the fed urging the central bank to reconsider the height that we had back in december quick look at that data from yesterday if i just bring this into picture here you can see opportunity wise it wasn't amazing you had a slight miss on the on the core year on year point one uh and the headline point one as well that's not enough really it's not enough for a massive reaction either way and we have a quick look at the euro dollar uh at the time we we spy a tire on that miss uh only to come back down you can see we drifted lower into the back end of the session uh and longer term let's have a quick look here at the euro it has been messy hasn't it you know we don't certainly been confusing people as of late when's going to be a good opportunity to to get short this market and uh see reversal i mean i probably want a bit more probably want a bit more here this trend line break of that uh would uh would perhaps later on be uh the this low area as well that we've had a double bottom on then we might start to see a further push lower why do i look at that trend line well if we have a look uh certainly on the recent uh trend of these markets any decent recovery is broken through uh by a trend line so that's something i would be favouring for euro dollar when can we get that key that maybe we are going back down time will tell going through eight o'clock to have a quick look over european stocks choppy as usual higher lower back to where we were looks pretty much like the s&p does here line in the sand pivot higher of the morning that could be your cue to to get long if we can confirm a break above that pivot to the downside is choppy but you have a trend line from the the lows of the day or lows of the uh sort of six a.m. candle uh break of that might lead to a further run down to the downside uh is well so that yet that those inflation numbers not great also overnight we had some data out of australia will bring the the chart into picture just before we go through that looking at that we spiked higher to come lower um yeah so it was perceived to be worse um the employment if we just bring this in the employment change was positive the participation rate was up but the unemployment rate which is what people were talking about here was worse up 0.1% to 5.2 so the Aussie is under a bit of pressure i'd favour still looking to go short can we get a retracement can we get to yesterday's low that would be somewhere i'd be focusing on uh as well as a potential opportunity so the pound i'd prefer the short uh the euro uh the euro can we break that trend line uh the the pound i don't think i said the pound is there the short euro and Aussie short uh is well stocks i think possibly looking for a bit more risk off than the market is tea notes and gold can we get uh longs um it's quite uh interesting looking at headlines and reaction if you were to read this on australia's unemployment rate holds steady in may you would have said that the Aussie dollar was near the low of the day following uh this release it stayed at 5.2% but was worse than expectations uh you having uh comments coming out and uh certainly from there was an economist at capital economics saying the surge in employment in may is unlikely to be sustained at the softness in the economic activity limits employment growth given the downturn in domestic activity in the softness in business surveys we think the unemployment rate is more likely to rise from here than to fall growth in the Australian economy fell to its weakest rate in almost a decade in the first three months of the year the country has been grappling with a housing downturn and the slowing Chinese economy uh it looks like the next decision is going to be a rate cut there it was you know take us back six weeks ago we were expecting the next one to be a rate cut as well two in a row we've got one but then looked like they were going to hold this data set here uh it now looks like we are going to get another cut uh china us situation if anything you can say is just stalling that's not going to help looking for the Aussie short today maybe more medium term as well is not a bad decision to go for let's have a quick look over the the calendar for today just to to wrap things up uh have i got this up yes i have relatively quiet morning uh any any hearsay conservative ballot will be worth keeping an eye on as the pound is coming under a bit more pressure this morning but data wise scheduled it's limited uh not expecting too much you've got a bit of industrial production at 10 am if you're in a position for euro the risking um but it's uh it's from from april uh and not expecting too much uh from that into the afternoon import and export prices at half one with the weekly initial uh well the initial job this claims and job this claims four-week coverage non-movers unless a wildly out of line uh so not expecting data to move markets today i'll be looking for trade comments g20 i'll be looking at where we go dax just coming down to test that trend line here just getting a bit jumpy around that little false break worth keeping an eye on the where this five-minute candle pushes and how that could bring stocks lower back to the the calendar is like it's got a bit excited there um it's relatively limited speakers you can see as well nothing of note there as well any questions as usual please do uh do let me know it's going to be a day dictated by uh sentiment rather than uh data schedule data conservative results looking about 1 pm can oil sustain its push higher will stocks drift lower uh as safe havens are pushing higher at the moment hope you'll have a great trading day and rest of the week