 Okay, very good morning. It is Monday the 8th of March and happy International Women's Day to any of our female followers in our community and Also, as well, we're just around 26 subscribers away from our next meaningful milestone on YouTube, which is 20,000 subscribers, so hit that subscribe button help us get over the line take us to 20k It'll be much appreciated Just quite amazing really how that community is grown and long may continue. We really love Delivering the content that we do on the channel. So yeah, it'd be great if we could get to that 20k level But look the briefing for this morning normal rules apply I'm going to update you a little bit about some of the major weekend news flow We're also going to have a look at what's the store for the week ahead There's definitely some interesting things to talk about here at the open Which I'll go into from the oil market and to also the US 10-year to continue focus on yields And then as I said some interesting things this week with the likes of the ECB policy meeting as well So look, let's get straight into things and look at the cross asset class mix this morning And the dollar is firmer once again, albeit relatively marginal It's about zero point one four percent, but it is exerting some Initial downside weight in both these major currency pairs here looking at EUR a dollar first We did go through 119 a very early in European trade And you can see now that providing a bit of a degree of near-term resistance having broken through on the failed break that we saw during some of the initial payroll Dollar fluctuation on Friday so worth keeping an eye here because last week we closed beneath the technically important area which was that one 1961 60 level which was the previous low that we had to beginning of February And then we are at the moment trading our lowest levels in the euro since going back to late November But here you can see is quite a key level test already being seen At 118 89 and you can see that encapsulates some of those relative highs that we were seeing in sep october of 2020 really was Restricting some of the upside price action until we broke out of that in late November So any breakdown of here in price the next clearer target is quite some way off technically Looking on the higher time frame on the daily chart here would be around the 118 hand or oh four and a half As I've got marked which is that low that we had on the 23rd of November So this all coming of course as we continue to see generally higher yields this morning stock rotation So tech stocks week overnight in Asia a Continuation of that play of the higher yield environment And that has been more favorable for the dollar for the time being which might put further downside weight on that euro currency pair Likewise then if you are looking at cable It's a similar type of story So it's definitely the green back in focus rather than anything sterling specific and was just looking here on a 60-minute chart of cable and we've obviously seen quite a decent pullback over the last two weeks or so in sterling and Quite an interesting range to keep an eye on here in some of the near-term price action in the intraday Market we've already had Resistance found at the pivot level very early as Europe's come back in but really for the session and near-term price action I'll be keeping an eye at these two areas Which was that momentary low that we had around payrolls again with dollar movement that we saw And then that brings in that low that we were trading going back to the 12th of February You've also got the s1 residing just below there So 137 76 in the futures as the lower level of that that current range that we're in and then on the upside 138 63 Which was the highs that we were seeing on Friday back on the second and then also back in early and mid February as well So cable I'd be quite interested to see how we perform around these levels any breakdown on the downside then It's this kind of area here Which was the the resistance kind of range high that we were trading during? Late January early February that would be a key area of downside support for the week as a whole to keep an eye That'll be around 137 50 should we get down that low at any point? Okay Otherwise elsewhere Gold has had a little bit of a bounce overnight But it's failed to sustain that a mid generally the dollar strength and dollar strength higher yield this this environment that we've been Used to seeing the last two weeks. We're seeing moderate signs of that restarting again this morning and With a light calendar it could well be that those trends really Are the most definitive factor of the session ahead without any kind of scheduled? Economic kind of Reese's due for today So the dollar picking up a little bit as Europe's come in has just reversed that overnight bid in gold and moving back down again Through 1700 so on the downside obviously we keeping an eye at these lower levels Which we flirted with last week which was around that 1683 level having on the dailies Broken down significantly last week in a continuation of that ongoing trend Otherwise in the equity indices Yeah, it's quite clearly evident already at the moment that the NASDAQ is an under performer And that was the case overnight in the Asia-Pacific session China and Hong Kong led the regional retreat tech stocks were the hardest hit and Just looking here on the NASDAQ It's just touching session those as I speak and I want to flip it on the daily and Just want to have a look at a couple of different things here. So this chart that I'm sharing here now Encapsulates the entire pandemic picture So the onset of the pandemic the the March route that we had in 2020 Phenomenal recovery that we've had up to these all-time highs that were printed Only back on the 16th of Feb, which was up at these levels at 13 1900 so we've pulled back and This morning we're training a little heavy again and as that 100 futures already down close to 200 points this morning We did see an about turn on Friday After equity markets had a little bit of an indecisive reaction to payrolls eventually moving higher But we were reversing a lot of that at this present point in time So here then what I was just marked up or a couple of rectangles that Friday low Down at 12 to 34 I think is quite key and he break down of that would then be looking to eye up the Kind of mid-November late November area, which was around here, which was 12,086 anything below there would then be that same time period on the low end of that range at 11 808 and then below there would be down here at 11 500 basically the bigger move of course would be if we did get down to around these sort of levels at 11,000 and Whoops percentage wise what would that be so from current price down to those those lows That would be about a 12% move down to around that 11,500 would be about a seven and a half percent move from where We are at the moment I guess the point I wanted to make is and the reason why I'm talking about these downside levels is Even if we got down that far Looking at where we were pre-pandemic we were here. We were down sub obviously 10,000 so When we start talking about pullback to 11,000 being a really deep move Doesn't seem that deep when you look at it in context then of where we were so that being said I do think this NASDAQ is susceptible for some further downside In these current conditions at the moment, which seemingly don't seem to be going away And I think that rotational play will likely be ongoing for the time period Ahead and if that is the case then as we take out some of these key levels There could be some days when we continue to see this is under performance in the NASDAQ And technically speaking you could see some quite quick runs in price action lower down Before you start to be met with some strong dip buying then which which will happen at one point Because I think at the moment the market is in a Readjustment mode for this new yield environment that doesn't detract from the point that in the end. I do still think that with policy Remaining low and with fiscal stimulus coming there might be a rotational effect But generally I think once we get lower down. It's a positive narrative for equities all round It's just that valuations are quite high and particularly punch on the tech space which have got to be Shifted from you know potentially into value from growth to this point. All right Oil is the the one I want to kick off with them This is just a quick look at WTI crude. We gapped up overnight We briefly ran up in the front months futures up to 68 bucks and if you look on the daily This is going back all the way to 2018 when we initially hit peak just over to 75 bucks and as you can see we've got over the April 2019 high now So we're not now trading at the highest levels in crude that we have done since going back to kind of Q3 Q4 of 2018 next stop you got to think you 70 bucks now psychologically on the upside and Why have we continued this this move up? I mean underpinned of course by The rollovers from from Saudi predominantly decision to to not move on that 1.5 million a little bit of a Gimme to the Russians and Kazakhstan to just get them to agree to that But overall that helped oil prices last week comes in the context of that improving kind of gross Perspective in the period ahead with stimulus and vaccination improvements and so on and so forth and now you've got continued renewed tensions in a very sensitive geographic region and that takes us into our first story then which is Yemen's Houthi forces on Sunday fired drones and missiles at a Saudi Aramco oil company facility and Ras Tanura and military targets in the Saudi cities of Daman a sir and Jassan according to Iran's aligned groups military spokesman Now if I flip over to here This is a look at the the Ras Tanura terminal. It's the world's largest oil export port So it's particularly important and then therefore potentially for causing supply shocks in the media scene There's the the price of WTI that we trade Here then the export facility is the so-called Sea Island. It's actually three interconnected offshore platforms as you can see Where super tankers dock and there are two large oil tank farms, which you can see here on on this kind of This backside here of this island our post if you like with the north and south piers now I Think an important thing that's that's happened here is The tensions here have been ongoing for a while actually More recently on March 4th Saudi Arabia was subject to several missile attacks with Houthi's claiming that they'd managed to hit a Ramco oil facilities in Jeddah and so This doesn't come as a new thing But the frequency of these attacks is definitely rising even if the impact on energy infrastructure appears limited Which is the case actually from the weekend The capacity though is cause for serious damage does exist and so What basically people are looking at is that the boost to risk premium for oil has got to increase Given that there's always the risk of a significant disruption And as I said given that this is the world's biggest offshore oil loading facility So definitely one to watch These things tend to kind of pick up in this way because then it's met with aggressive Kind of posturing politically as any potential responses And so this is definitely one to watch as we go through the rest of the rest of the week but in in the picture of everything else that's going on At the moment from OPEC supply deal to the general growth outlook In the pandemic recovery and now you sprinkle in Some geopolitical unrest in this highly sensitive area. It's kind of the perfect cocktail for for potential upside in oil at the moment And so yet so many bucks So remain quite bullish there that that will be achieved at some point in the near future Moving on then in the Senate we had over the weekend The 1.9 trillion dollar plan was approved in the Senate on Saturday And this means then that the House is scheduled to vote on Tuesday on the Senate's version Which then must happen and approved before then it goes to Biden for being signed in for signature into law Democrats are seeking to enact the legislation before unemployment benefits expire on the 14th of March The 14th of March being this week on Sunday. So time off the essence there From a Federal Reserve point of view worth noting that this week as we go into the coming sessions that the Fed go into their blackout period Because we do have the next week the mid-March FOMC next meeting And so there will be no speeches then from Fed officials So interesting then that the recent comments that we have had from Powell multiple times But from also from his colleagues, which is no real explicit comment to try and push back against the whole yield Increase that we've had of late. There's there's no other opportunity now into the blackout period for them to comment on that But that doesn't mean that we couldn't get source comments come out from the lights of Bloomberg I've got a Wall Street Journal and so forth if this yield movement was continued to be Particularly impactful on markets that doesn't go to say that they they can't find a way backdoor to communicate So something to be aware of The ECB then is is quite a big thing this week and it isn't so much actually the ECB meeting on Thursday Which although will be looked at I'm not expecting a great deal from the policy meeting in itself Christine Lagarde, of course is going to be asked about this recent rise in yields and its impact on just general Financial conditions and whether or not what would be the threshold for them to respond to anything of that nature So her skills on the press are definitely going to be put to the test. The other thing is Analysts that I and G note for the ECB itself They're expecting a modest downward revision to the 2021 GDP growth forecast and the upward revision to CPI Forecasts, but neither of which that they're anticipating to make too much of an impact on the euro Downgrading growth. I think as comes as absolutely no surprise just given the relative slow Vaccination program rollout that we're observing in Europe and so consequently a more protracted longer lockdown and slower reopening So the downward revisions have a more pessimistic on growth, but more Kind of more bullish on inflation Again very much expected just given the continued resurgence in energy prices And and and that's going to really lift things on that side of off the projections So what is it that we're looking for? Well, actually it's today. Today is a particularly quiet calendar for global markets, however as you will see from Here one of the main things that's highlighted is the ECB pep so the ECB weekly update on their pandemic emergency purchase program and Data on the bank's purchases due today will cover the week through March 5th And this has drawn considerable attention if you are reading any of the press over the weekend and given the movement We've had in yields over the period of which this data would have measured Although I I don't see a huge surprise on the back of it today I think you certainly need to keep an eye out for it because it's more than likely that there will be a temporary increase in the pace of purchases that the ECB were doing in order to Counteract some of the sharp yield rise that we've been observing of late Analysts expect the ECB to step up the pace of its bond purchase in that week After they fell to 12 billion euros in the final week of February down from more than 17 billion The year or the week earlier These are these numbers are important because it's going to give you a reference point from when that announcement comes out later on this afternoon I think it's around 2 45 p.m. London as to what to look for as a reference then the ECB watcher at pick a Ducre du Crozet says he sees a number above 20 billion As a as a as a number to based in any subsequent reaction around So yeah, that that that would be quite key today for for euro and euro is on the back foot at the moment And generally speaking what we're seeing across asset classes this morning just to iterate with a quiet calendar ahead It just tends to draw focus back to the predominant top-level things and that is continuation of higher yields firmer dollar So equities weaker tea notes lower gold lower currency pairs down And then I was a side point almost separately to this in its own Dynamic oil is generally quite elevated at the moment But upside could well be capped by if we get further Strong increases in the in the dollar Then the other thing then is over the weekend just to be aware of China February exports posted this record surge From COVID-19 depressed levels, but that in its sense does discount Then I think the fact that in dollar terms exports were up a hundred and fifty five percent in February compared to a year earlier So I would get too excited about that It did provide a little bit of a positive start to Chinese trade however Generally sentiment there deteriorated as the as the overnight session went on When the end the final thing I wanted to have a quick comment on was was COVID-19 on a global level and really looking at the US UK and European situation So here looking at daily new confirmed COVID-19 cases per million as you can see Italy Continues to be heading in the in the wrong direction at the moment Quite a rapid acceleration and by far the highest level of COVID rates that we've seen since the year got underway France remains kind of doggedly high without really going anywhere in terms of the downside and obviously this come after they made that choice a few weeks ago about not Going into a full national lockdown and then Germany as well has been seeing Levels not just plateauing but very marginally increasing and this of course goes to the opposite of the UK Case rates thankfully continue to head south as to is the same case in the US Or be it a slightly slower fashion and then overlaid that with the current vaccination situation Things are improving in Europe. They're starting to pick up and heading in the right direction How albeit there's still quite a significant divergence between what it looks like in the rate of Administering these these vaccines compared to the UK and the US Interestingly in the UK things have slowed a little bit after that real key government push and acceleration And we had to hit that mid-February target since hitting that target things have actually when we hit the target We were basically peaked and since then it has dropped off a little bit and the US has now superseded the UK in terms of Doses administered per 100 people an interesting thing that one of our guys on Amphi live was looking at this morning was looking at the latest figures on vaccine hesitancy rates and You can see here the UK has probably the least amount of hesitancy and also obviously a very high amount of Adults who have already been vaccinated. So we're up here at 85 percent The point being here is that somewhere like in the US. It's more like 50 50 in France even lower at 47 and There was kind of three things to watch that one of our guys was giving us a kind of briefing on this morning very early and that was one Premature opening up of certain predominantly Republican states the reason why he's brought that to our attention is that as we looked at some of those case rates Particularly COVID declining in the US as we've seen here and now with the rate of Vaccination program rollout being at its fastest pace it has been and expected to continue in that direction particularly given the recent Coordinated manufacturing deal between Merck and J&J as well with some of the latter drugs still to come online So premature opening up in certain predominantly Republican states could be scientific out for remember in America It's not a nationwide blanket coordinated strategy. It's very much fractured onto a federal and state level So there will be differences within the nation in itself to the reluctance of younger groups to take up the the vaccine I guess generally as well transmission rates between those Where mobility is very high then in three the spread of escape Covid strains like the Brazilian P1 that may have ability to overwhelm already acquired immunity So kind of three factors there to have a look at so markets definitely looking generally through that at the moment But they're still potentially a bumpy road ahead was the point that our guy was making So the main thing being that that's US Specific and the reason why the UK doesn't fall so much into that that categorization is the fact that most UK people Do have in mind they want to be vaccinated Born of the most highest in the entire planet at the moment with all nations being measured all right a quick look at the the calendar then for for the rest of This week, there's a few things to be aware of so Monday very quiet looking out for the speed pep Announcement later on this afternoon Tuesday then you get your zone GDP and employment numbers, but these are final Q4 readings So shouldn't be too much of a market move if any at all You do have the German trade balance first thing at the European Open on Tuesday Wednesday then things start to get a little bit more interesting definitely for the US and I can incorporate then that with Friday with the US where you do get PPI and also University of Michigan sentiment March preliminary preliminary figure so Last week the five-year break-even rate in the US hit hit 2.5 percent that was the first time since 2008 and with US yields climbing at the moment It has led to the fact that expectations for the year-on-year US CPI has actually risen now to 1.7 percent Although the Fed have made clear that they're willing to look through this kind of temporary push in inflation in the short term and Markets are definitely sensitive to inflation metrics in in the context of Movement, so I definitely would be keeping an eye out for that I don't think ultimately it's going to move the Fed's hand But it could well provide a catalyst for subsequent price movement when we get to Wednesday session The other things then is these jobs claims usually on Thursday Michigan on Friday alongside PPI So Michigan expectations of a slight month-to-month improvement given the decline in COVID case rates and Speeding up the vaccination rollout in America And then you've got the ECB on Thursday, of course, which concludes really the the main Order of play with UK GDP also coming out on Friday Morning and that is it so quite a lot to digest there Remember to check out Amphi live and the community Sam did share his technical look ahead across the trade Setups on Sunday as he will normally be doing now going forward So it's definitely worth having a look at that as well. All right guys Have a good week ahead and any questions. Just let me know in the discord room. Thanks very much