 For those of you who don't know I'm Ryan Sickles assistant director of media relations at CSIS work with Andrew on behalf of Andrew welcome Happy Easter and Passover I have three Three experts here to brief on the briefing. I know some of you have to get to the White House So we'll go ahead and get started. I'll introduce Dan again when he gets here To my right Meredith Broadman is our senior advisor and shoal chair in international business She was the former assistant US trade rep for industry market access and telecom and Steve Johnson is the director of our America's program former deputy assistant secretary of defense for Western Hemisphere affairs Meredith is gonna start off give us a little What's happening or not happening as far as the trade front and the At the summit Steve's gonna give us a little history of the summit itself and some of the regional implications and security implications, etc And I think all of them will be Happy to take any questions on the Ruseff visit in the Q&A section But I don't know that that's necessarily gonna come up in the opening remarks. So Meredith. I'll let you get us started I'll be pretty brief. Unlike in years past when trade has been a big headline Issue in a summit like this where we've got you know a lot of bilateral Relationships that are bumping up against our shores and and concerns about How sort of economic integration proceeds in the hemisphere This year this year I don't see trade at this point figuring very very high and on any headlines that might come out of the meeting Back in the 1990s, you know, we had the summit of the Americas which launched the The goal of the free trade agreement of the Americas which really envisioned Hemispheric economic integration sort of a free trade agreement that would would knit NAFTA with Mercasor and the The the trade groups that were were growing in the region that of course has has not really panned out as as the thought was to begin with and and Trade relations has really kind of taken a different turn in the hemisphere. I think recently The biggest development has been The declaration of the impasse in the in the Doha around in Geneva. That was that's the multilateral trade Negotiation where the US negotiates negotiates with all of Latin American countries all of Europe all of the rest of the world And most of our trade relations with the region particularly with the big economies like Brazil and Argentina Were being really addressed in that forum. They were part of the BRIC groups part of the advanced developing countries on tariff cutting formulas they They had their own set of Potential reduction mechanisms that might apply to them Because of the impasse that was declared in the year in the Doha round I think this is kind of a rebuilding year We're all looking at the region to see see where we go next on broadening trade and economic ties Trade of course by the private sector and just the demographics of the region between the big countries and the United States is growing very fast You see exports to Brazil going at 25% a year, you know, we have 40 43 billion dollars of exports there now But this is really growing growing outside the context of what governments are doing and just the general Energy of the private sector in both places to continue to grow And I think Brazil as the United States is recalibrating trade policy Where do they go now that most of their eggs are not in the WTO basket? Is there something that we could do in the region that would that would open things up a bit? Brazil of course is the the keystone of the Mercasor agreement and really values those relationships And I think there's a lot of leaders particularly in Congress that would someday like to see a bridge between NAFTA and Europe Mercasor agreement, but that's a really long way off and I think right now We're just taking stock about where countries go after after the end of the Doha round you saw Last week and Steve Johnson, I did just a quick critical questions on this on a trade sanction Was taken against Argentina, which is probably one of our one of our more antagonistic trade relations that we have in the region the because of Activities I think and not respecting arbitral awards on US investments the US decided Interagency to actually make Argentina no longer Eligible for trade preferences under the generalized system of preferences And that's a pretty pretty unusual act in the sense that countries have not been completely excluded from GSP for many many years You haven't seen a whole country just being removed from this this preference program And I think it's been 10 or 11 years and those countries tend to be pretty bad actors So I think it's it's a reflection that there is a lot of friction and in trade relations with some of these countries Argentina has a a very different philosophy on how to develop its economy. It is Really throwing up some huge barriers to UX US exports to to Argentina right now that Are hurting US companies and I think when the company's raised these problems in the Argentine government Takes measures to to make the companies feel even more uncomfortable in Argentina So things aren't really smooth in the bilateral relationships with some of the major economies right now I think on the plus side Columbia, of course, just just We've had the success of getting Congress to finally implement the free trade agreement And that was just a real success got that off the table and now I think as Columbia works its way through the implementation process they've got to do Get their labor some of their labor laws Updated and so forth, but I think that's on track and and within the year Columbia will have that free trade agreement Implemented and then can we can look forward with this really strong trading partner to see where do we go in the future? And and there are many that would hope that Columbia would want to request to be a member of the Transpacific Partnership negotiation for example and that would be Kind of a next stage of taking that trade relationship to to another level And Columbia, of course, is hosting a big CEO summit as I understand it So the US business groups will probably have some good good things to say about what they see in the future I know Companies like Walmart and so further sending representatives down there to to talk about what they're seeing in the future and the trends That they see coming so so far. I don't see huge trade headlines coming out of this It's a rebuilding time in the wake of of the impasse in the Doha round but trade continues to grow and expand based on the demographics and the energy of the private sector and Would appreciate any sort of reflections you all had on what you see. Thank you Great, and I think the CEO summit leads well to our next briefer Dan Rundie There's a Shire chair director and project and prosperity and development at CSIS as well as The co-director of our US leadership and developments looks a lot at public-private partnerships, etc And that's went quite a lot of time in and out of Brazil. So keep that in mind for the Q&A Thanks very much. I would say that from a development standpoint That this has been the best ten years in Latin America in the last two centuries. So from a development standpoint This is a moment where There's been actually a number of positive things that have happened in the region. I think if you look at Columbia I think Columbia's country brand Hasn't fully caught up with the re the good news story. That is Columbia. You've had Several years now of year-on-year growth They've put the they've got the FARC on the ropes. So when people think about Columbia you tell people you're going to Columbia people still say oh You know really actually Columbia is a really great place to be and it's really a great It's a great news story in the region And so I think one of the things to be looking at is is how much progress they've made over the last ten years and in combating terrorism and combating the The FARC and and paramilitaries and that's been a bipartisan project between Republicans and Democrats over the really last 15 years Clinton administration Bush administration Obama administration. So I think that's that's one of the good news stories to watch I do think though that the administration. I'm sure Steve will make reference to it I do think that the Obama administration has some serious fence mending to make with the Colombians They have been our best ally in the region and I think there's been I think it's been Almost shameful the way in which the administration has treated the Colombians Given the fact that it took three long years to get this Colombian trade deal done I think it's really unfortunate to have such a great ally in the region and to take that long to get a trade deal done And that's related to development It's about signaling about what kind of a commitment that we have to that country So I think it's been very awkward and I'm sure Steve will tell you that they've looked around for other friends Given the fact that we've we sure took our sweet time to do it and that's been unfortunate So I'm looking forward to seeing the administration Men fences here and so this will be a nice opportunity to do that and as I said, it's a good news story Rest of the region again, like I said best ten years perhaps in the last two centuries Brazil has reduced its poverty at the absolute number of poor people in Brazil has been reduced I think in the last ten years by 30 million people think about that I mean, it's a country of 150 million people. They made tremendous economic progress Number of other countries as well So there's a lot of good news in the region from a development standpoint some of it a lot of it driven frankly by trade agreements and so it's linked to trade and so I think it's great that There's been some interest in by the administration on on TPP but I think that there's the need for us leadership on Hemispheric trade and I think this is something that we should be pushing and we should be more aggressive About because it's about prosperity. It's about poverty alleviation and to the extent that we have not been aggressive about this this Administration, I think that it has impacts on poverty in the region So that's on the on the good news side Let me just make reference to the Inter-American Development Bank on two points about the Inter-American Development Bank the United States Led it or basically came along around to the idea of supporting a general capital increase for the Inter-American Development Bank This is an essence sort of providing them with more money to make loans In the region there. They're a big player in Haiti They're a big player in terms of infrastructure and they're a thought leader in terms of social infrastructure in the region So they are they are in a very good place in terms of as a development leader of the president of the Inter-American Development Bank It's Colombian and it's very close to president Santos And so it's gonna they're gonna do their best to support the summit to be as as good a success as you can can hope for given the context The second point is that as Meredith mentioned there is gonna be a CEO summits the first time There's a parallel CEO summit with it with one of these Summit of the Americas I don't expect huge announceables coming out of this, but I do think it's a very good innovation That they are gonna be doing this on an ongoing basis, and I think the I think it's great that the IDB is convening it I'm not sure the IDB is is completely equipped to to build all the partnerships that that that could come out of this But I think that You know we ought to be seeing organizations like Canadian SIDA or USAID or the Inter-American Foundation or other or Philanthropies tied to the region as potential partners and I know they'll convene a number of folks But I think so I think the IDB has the convening power But may not have all the instruments to actually actualize all the opportunities And so bringing some of these other actors to the table whether it's aid or Canadian SIDA is a good thing and are even organizations like ABC Which is the Brazilian aid agency which has a 30 or 40 million dollar technical assistance budget? Let me just So that's on the positive side. They're continuing to be challenges in the region Obviously there continues to be great inequality in the region There continues to be deficits on infrastructure There continues to be transnational challenges around gangs which is something of interest to the administration and is a challenge especially in Central America as well as the the challenges for democratic governments to deliver public goods and to be That you have there's been a an uptick and support of democracy in the region in the last five or six years Partially reflecting the fact that there's been increased prosperity and so people associate the current governments with prosperity There were several years ago about six or seven years ago There was a real low point in supporting democracy in the region. That's ticked up over the last five or six years But I do think that it does mean that there is still continues to be a challenge around governance around supporting Supporting activities to fight corruption because to the extent that you have corruption or or you have poor governance Poisoned the well on sort of the democratic project You poison the well on the sorts of reforms that oftentimes you need to see further prosperity happen in a society And then finally, let me just make one reference to Argentina I think There I think it's going to become harder and harder for Argentina to remain a member of the G20 with this sort of behavior So I think they're probably too polite to say so in in in open in open But I think a good replacement for Argentina from a Latin America standpoint would be Colombia So watch that space. I think that as can Argentina can be a bit bad actor in the international system That they may have their license to participate as a as a constructive middle-income country taken away from them I'll stop there Thanks, Sam Steve you want to back clean up my Take on the summit of the Americas is that it contrasts greatly with a couple of meetings that we've just had or a meeting that is ongoing today and What it really is is kind of a difference between a Group of a large group of nations that comes together to discuss topics and then a small group of nations three in The case of the North American leaders summit in which you have a rather harmonious discussion of things that three countries More or less agree on This is 33 countries including the in addition to the United States that will be coming together at the America's summit and as a result of that because there are so many differences between these countries It's naturally going to be a little more contentious than a Summit and where you have partners that are pretty much committed to certain ideals So that may be the the big news story coming out of this This upcoming meeting on April 14th and 15th I think expectations should be tempered by a low common denominator of agreement on Projects small likelihood that most of the commitments will actually be Fulfilled and the possibility that intermissions on Cuba drug legalization and Argentina's Falklands Malvinus claims will be brought up From a US perspective the Obama administration facing shrinking foreign operations budget We'll have very little to offer. So while the summit may be useful its impact may be limited Now there's certain themes that will be brought up, but they're not easy to find in it They've only come together rather recently also should note that It's taken Pretty much the span of four years since the last summit to put all of this together and the country of Colombia should be Congratulated for being able to do this in consultation with other countries It's come up with the following sub themes reduction of part poverty and inequality is of both Dan and Meredith mentioned This has been a very good decade for Latin America Growth on average has been four to five percent in most of the countries in the region have not suffered as the United States did during the Recession of 2008 and 2009 that said Many countries especially in South America The Andean region and Central America Still have poverty rates that are in the neighborhood of 25 to 30 percent some as high as as 50 to 60 percent and then there's there's Haiti as well so that's still a problem and then there's the inequality the difference between the rich and the poor and Again, there's a lot of work that needs to be done noting. However, the Latin America's come a long way natural disasters as populations grow larger demographic argue demographics argues that Natural disasters are going to affect more and more people So this is an important subject for people to discuss at these summits and how do you coordinate assistance because In the past it hasn't gone very well. Haiti's kind of a showcase where it did But there was that was fairly close to US shores And we had an opportunity to to make a fairly rapid and immediate impact, but other earthquakes of volcano eruptions and perhaps some Hurricane incidents in the eastern Caribbean may not afford that opportunity so The to the extent that it's possible for the United States and other nations to agree on a fairly easy topic to agree on we can improve Coordination on natural disasters access and use of technologies is another sub theme and it remains to be seen whether Latin America can pull ahead of other regions and developing regions in the world in terms of its penetration for the use of broadband Internet and Computers citizen security and transnational crime Dan brought this up It is kind of a sad fact that the 32 most violent cities in the world are actually in the Americas So there's some work to be done there in drug trafficking, which is about a 400 billion dollar a year industry is something that Impacts this hemis hemisphere inordinately There will be talk about regional integration physical integration highways railroads Pipelines things of this nature energy networks of the energy grid in Latin America is about sufficient to take care of the current population the way it is, but that population is Thought to to grow it may may be growing by about 200 million people In the next 12 to 15 years The current grid is not going to be able to handle that so there's Some work that needs to be done on that and also to make it more resilient. It has to be more connected supportive cooperation this is really in sort of dance field, but Something that'll be brought up this year that could be useful is North-south cooperation south-south cooperation where Countries in sub-regions should be able to coordinate and work to help themselves on development issues And then the issue of trying to get NGOs to be less is small governments unto themselves and coordinated players In countries of need Now again, what's not going to be on the agenda, but is probably going to be brought up and be Something that's likely to make news the issue of Cuba. It's important to understand that to Cuba is not a democracy and and so until it is it's not welcome in the This forum notwithstanding What to individual leaders may say it's something that the states themselves have to agree on and the two crown jewels of the Organization of American states that organizes the summit our democracy and human human rights So for those that have said this should be the last Summit without Cuba, of course, that's true. It should be the last but Cuba has some work to do to Continue the reforms that have been started under Raul and to become a member in good standing of the OAS Bottom line given the need for consensus One might ask whether such summits are a waste of time for countries Resources and leaders Time so far the summit of the Americas process can be said to have kind of an uneven Record, however, it can be credited with a number of things that positive things that have managed to come out of it like the Inter-American Democratic Charter in in 2001 aid contributions to Haiti Contributions in public health for AIDS programs. These are notable achievements for the summits The other thing though that's worth mentioning and I'll quit with this is that the summits Offer a unique forum for dialogue and mutual understanding for regional leaders and more most importantly They provide one location where a broad gathering of leaders can engage in private bilateral and honest discussions on truly divisive issues in Policides in separate meetings private meetings between leaders and that is truly the summit of the Americas greatest value because you can't get so many people together and have truly a substantive talks At one place unless you have something that organizes them all to get into that place and affords an opportunity to sit together off to the side and talk about things that really matter Thank you Great, so we'll take some questions, but just a reminder. We're Transcribing and the audio and video will be available later. So please use the microphone as you ask your question Yeah, we'll start here Thank you very much. Vladimir Karamazov with our TV. I have a couple of questions for Mr Johnson, they actually both follow-offs of what you of what you mentioned first on Cuba There was a threat of the of the boycott earlier. I think if I'm correct. It's just a president of Ecuador in the end Who's not coming? How significant do you think that that fact is that he's not there and do you expect this pressure to continue to grow? For Cuban it's current totalitarian state to be present In fact, if you could just explain how is that gonna work For instance, does the US have a veto if if the majority of other nations would like to invite communist Cuba there and Secondly on the on the Falkland Islands, you said that Argentina is likely to raise that question Is it just gonna be a symbolic move or is it gonna be a some kind of a meaningful discussion on the on the Falklands there 30 years after the after the war. Thank you Vladimir on on Cuba The important thing is that Cuba begins to make progress to Become eligible to to join this forum and also to participate as a full member of the OAS There's a great deal of pressure to to bring Cuba in The the thing that stands in contrast to that would be the the democratic charter and also the organizing charter of the organization of American states So the ball is actually in Cuba's court to be able to do that Nonetheless, that's not a message that the United States can easily take to the Cuban leadership but it's incumbent on Latin America's leadership that has Relations with Cuba to be encouraging to Raul to go farther than just some of the economic reforms that have begun to transform the economy there to include a Move to open up the political system to competitive elections and and to true citizen participation where people aren't asked to rubber stamp or approve in in the Cuban Congress laws and initiatives that are proposed by the leadership but that Truly initiatives can be developed at the grassroots and and brought up through this the system Cuba has a great deal of native talent and That talent should be allowed to have a voice And it deserves. I mean it doesn't it's not a question of allowing it. It deserves a voice on the Falkland Islands Malvinus question That's something that is probably largely symbolic But Argentina outside of the summit process has all already tried to encourage some of its neighbors in South America to Boycott or ban flights or shipping to the islands Until there's a resolution that favors Argentina. So it's moving already on the diplomatic front and Reasserting its its claim. It was disastrous the last time that it took this into a military Attempt at a solution I don't think Argentina is going to go that far, but it's certainly going to be an important topic of conversation Yeah, Roger Thank You Roger running out of Bloomberg news a question for all three of you describe for us what you think the state of relations is with between the US and South America right now compared to say five years ago and second For all three of you The president goes down there mindful of the elections So what things coming up here are going to limit him because of the elections Okay, let me stick my little toe into those waters State of the US South American relations compared to five years ago I think President Obama enjoys a great deal of popular approval personally in Latin America and the Caribbean and and certainly continues To have as a US leader substantial amount of approval and in Canada as well and that's Really holds him and in puts him in a very good position The unfortunate thing is that given the economic situation and also the tendency of this administration to look to the Middle East is its main area of engagement and then recently state that is turning to the Pacific Rim and Asia to Plus up its its Relations and also its military involvement Makes it seem as if it doesn't have a focus for the Americas and that's something that's been noted by some of the leaders The administration doesn't have the luxury of being able to go to the summit as some previous ones had from the very beginning up until 2005 with a grand idea such as the free trade area of the Americas Unfortunately, that's that's not there some so some other things which have to do with Specific areas and Dan can get into this that have to do with development The United States can take those it can talk about some of the work that it's been done on Citizen security, but the fact of the matter is is that the United States is not as much of an aid player as it was in the past For a number of factors that the Dan can can talk about and the other thing is on trade is that the FTAA is actually Moving along in piecemeal fashion. It's not a grand bargain. It's not a grand strategy But it is moving forward and Meredith can kind of Discuss how that's that's happening now. So the United States is is Moving forward in relations. I think are getting better, but not in a way that Makes the United States the the center of attention like it would have been Five or six seven or eight nine ten ten years ago. It's more of an equal partner It certainly has a great deal of weight and great deal of influence and probably always will But it's not going to be necessarily the most preeminent Actor on the stage at any one time in terms of the limits of the elections The president's got limited amount of time that he can't spend on foreign affairs except for very big issues And so it's not likely that The Americas will figure greatly in that although in the upcoming campaign certainly his ideas for Policy toward the Americas toward the Hemisphere and toward Latin America may figure and the degree to which the Americas is an important Part of the world for this White House and for any White House For all the candidates It's one that matters to us a great deal because of family relationships geographic connectivity And growing amount of trade Latin America itself is our number four trade partner Mexico's number three Canada's number one. So the Americas in economic terms still count Okay On the development side the inter-American development banks that lends out about 12 billion dollars a year in Resources and we have a grant US government has about a 1.5 billion dollar year Assistance program in the Americas. There's there's other other pieces to it But that's sort of a pretty and that's a that's a zip. Those are two zip code Numbers for you to think about I think we I think from ten years ago Again, I go back to there's been a lot of progress made so I do think there are a number of countries where we continue to provide We have a small assistance program in Brazil, which I find frankly very strange We're in some ways fighting the last war and development in a place like Brazil that now has its own foreign assistance program Has a space satellite program is has a sovereign wealth fund is the G20 member I think we are I think there's an opportunity for the administration and I think they've Begun to grab you know have been grappling with this. I think and doing as best they can so I think it's It's something that's going to evolve over time But how we rethink the sorts of Cooperation approach that we have with what are called middle-income countries countries like a Brazil or a Mexico or Columbia I can imagine a time over the next five years where we don't have an assistance program in Colombia that we That it does so well in beating the FARC and that it that it is in a place where we don't need to be there anymore I think that's coming So we certainly don't need to have an assistance program in in Brazil and that but it's and but I do think we have to Think about how we reset our relations with these middle-income countries in ways that? create exchanges or Leverage our expertise have small amounts of catalytic funding perhaps in the form of a bilateral Foundation something that looks like if people are familiar with the German Marshall fund Which is an endowed foundation that sort of encapsulates our holds our relationship between the transatlantic The Western Europe and the United States I think we need to be thinking about something like that for our relationship with Brazil and perhaps for a number of other Countries in the region. We have something like this in Costa Rica a small version of this in Costa Rica that when we exited from a from an assistant standpoint So I think We I do think there's a sense of don't forget us There's a little bit of that sense within the within the region. I think as Steve was saying But I think because of this changing economy and the changing dynamics of the society that perhaps the instruments that we have We may be offering chicken or beef and they may not want chicken or beef They may want Something different than chicken or beef in terms of we can offer them in terms of cooperation in terms of our relationships Let me just say on the US elections. I do think that It's going to be you know things that would be good for development like a more aggressive trade regime I don't think the administration is going to be pushing because I don't think it's Unfortunately, it's something that I think would be great for the region and great for development But we're not gonna I don't think we're gonna see additional political capital given the reluctance the administration's had on pushing trade agreements It sort of had to be driven kicking and screaming. I think unfortunately I also think Discussions about broader hemispheric energy security and energy progress. I think are sort of marred by the unfortunate state of affairs with our neighbor to the north and and they've already talked about saying we'll find They'll find markets elsewhere So I do think that it does impact our we want to say we have energy cooperation with countries like Brazil or Mexico and to the extent that we're playing Games with with our one of our best allies to the north. I think that doesn't that's not particularly helpful I think that's I think also politically driven Yeah, I think I remember what your question was on to stated what's the Relation what sort of has a relationship from five years ago. Yeah, what's holding back? I Guess I see the the two most important trading partners in the region Brazil and the United States are kind of stuck in our bilateral relationship as far as the government's concerned and what future objectives are And I think as I mentioned, it's a result of some of the problems in the Doha round I think we need to figure out what this is for the future Right now. I don't think Brazil has has strong aspirations to want to build its trade relationship with the United States in that in some ways is really curious because As two countries we have very similar success in the international marketplace we're both huge exporters and depend on an international trading system that works and protects our Our exports and make sure that there's fair treatment But for whatever reason we were not able to come to agreement in the WTO and now are both kind of Spinning off doing our own agendas and I think right now as the US defines it It's the Trans-Pacific Partnership negotiations Which is basically focused on grabbing a lot of the economic growth that's happening in Asia and then Potentially in the future if the administration wants to take it there bringing kind of like-minded countries Into that platform and and we have not gotten there yet But I think a lot of people will hope that that that will be a successful platform on on to which to build our next kind of trade trade little liberalizing organization But that still leaves a question of where it wears a future for Brazil in the United States And you see in the Trans-Pacific Partnership negotiations both Canada and Mexico very interested in joining And this is this is kind of a subtext in the tent in the sense that both leaders have come to the United States to the president Obama said we really want to be involved and the president's going to have to make some decision and Some message to them about what their future is. What's the entrance ramp into this negotiation if he sees one for them? And I think that's sort of a first hurdle, you know that there are like-minded trading partner from NAFTA our longest Retrait agreement Relationship so if if we can't kind of net get to the next level with them I don't think we we will with Brazil anytime soon, but Brazil has its own strategy in the region focused on Mercasur Not a lot of talk about bridging between NAFTA and Mercasur At this point and then countries like Columbia Peru that are kind of in the middle that are probably in the like-minded camp Are having to make their choices on what their future trade relationships look like So it's a really interesting time as people try to to recalibrate and figure out what they want to do for the next eight or ten years on trade Karen Boehan of Reuters Steven, I just wanted to follow up on Roger's question Okay In terms of the effort the administration's made to engage with the hemisphere The president did say at the beginning of his administration that that he wanted to deepen ties there how do you think he's done overall in terms of fulfilling that promise and To what extent do you think the distractions of the Middle East have have hampered him? And has he been able to form a personal rapport with any of the leaders in the region in particular? Karen that's a good question. You know you look back in in history and you see presidents like President Reagan the president Clinton and even George W. Bush that had surrogates that could work even when they didn't have time to be able to meet with different leaders and and make trips to the region and certainly they did and certainly this president has tried to to make time to To visit the region and is doing so now and has actually had a very busy month with his North American leader summit his state to visit with the Joma Rousseff and Then the summit in in Cartagena, but that said he doesn't really have a very deep Coterie of Latin American hands that he can outside of the the career and the Named officials that he has to work in in the region President Clinton had Mac McCarty McClarty President Reagan had a number of people over the years that Worked for him that were sort of semi-official ambassadors George Bush had his brother Jeb, but we don't see you know what? A number of people that might be able to do that for President Obama, so he has spread fairly thin and with this region in particular you find that at least success in Building agreements and finding common ground Relies a great deal on contact and being able to talk to people Quite a bit and maybe that's a little bit more so than other areas of the world Where relationships can be a little more institutional, but contact personal contact means means a lot In the Americas and there's hasn't been a lot of time to be able to To build up that that sense of goodwill has it hurt him. I think the jury's still out on that certainly there are a number of things that Have helped us relationships, but again, you know, we're living in different times We're living in times when Many countries have graduated into the middle-income status They're asserting leadership on their own They're becoming regional leaders and there be they're gaining roles and in the international arena Which sets up a very different dynamic and certainly you see that with Brazil with Columbia, Chile, Mexico, Peru to some extent and Those countries that are contributing to the international community and that's you know a very different Thing so the United States doesn't have that sort of lead role that it used to have one thing in the military Area that we always used to talk about was building partnership capacity and that's been a mantra for the last ten years, but in all areas in economics and politics and Security there's been an effort by US diplomats to build partnership capacity and when this happens Then the relationships change a little bit because all of a sudden these countries are more In a collegial status than they are in a supplicant status and that's a very different ballgame Yeah, Julie. I won't come down here Hi, I'm Julie pace from the Associated Press I'm at two quick questions one on drug legalization I was wondering if you could characterize where the discussions on drug legalization stand particularly in Columbia and Mexico and what the Prospects of that moving forward are especially if there's no US backing for it and then second on Iran Iran obviously has tried to build relationships with countries in Latin America And I was wondering if you could talk about how that That dynamic might impact the dynamic between some of the Latin American countries in the US and whether you thought Obama might try to raise the Iran issue with any of the leaders he meets in the summit Steve it sounds like she read your report Okay, well, I'll just refer you to the report I have nothing for you Julie, you know, those are those are good questions the drug legalization I think in some Aspects That has been overblown a little bit because what that is and it was really started by Guatemala's president president Perez Molina and I think out of a sense of frustration due to the high cost of Doing drug interdiction and also Dealing with the attendant violence that accompanies narcotics trafficking Trying to seek a different solution that would relieve the state of having such a huge burden And if you look at Guatemala, which has about a 40 billion dollar and and I think I'm right on this About a 40 billion dollar gross domestic product If you look at this in in economic terms if you're facing a global industry that's got a 400 400 billion dollar Income globally and they have the the luxury of being able to steal or to even buy airplanes for one time use I've said this over and over again and then fly them in and crash land them and then transport their Product to market to over land and over sea and that kind of thing And you're having trouble buying one or two helicopters yourself You're really up against a difficult situation So you've got to appreciate that especially with a small Central American countries They don't look at Belize population of 370,000 people how are they going to pay that bill to be able to be a big actor on That and so I think they're looking for a little Economic relief which is which is part of this But I don't think in in any case that it's gone to the point where they're saying that we've got to Legalize drugs or we've got to decriminalize drugs either in Mexico or Colombia What I think they're saying is that we need to have a talk We need to have a dialogue on this and to see if maybe there's not a better way To be able to deal with this and then on Iran If you look at to the sum of Iran's Relationships over the last decade certainly they have picked up in this region. Although they're not Unusual in that Iran has had the relationships in the Americas that go back for more than a century And a lot of them are based on oil diplomacy with OPEC And in addition to that also a concern even in the Shah's time for developing Nations and and this the Islamic Republic is still playing that card Very much trying to do that very much to its own advantage and it's added to that a page out of the United States Public diplomacy playbook in the during the Cold War In that it is trying to develop a strategic communications component with international broadcasting and websites and and content to development to For media that it can exploit in countries that are friendly to it, but In looking over the the the whole range of joint ventures and things that Iran is doing It's really questionable as to how much it's actually getting out of its relations with Certain countries the Alba countries for instance in in Latin America and the two really big players Argentina and Brazil are really institutional and they're more interested in selling grain beef Commodities to Iran then they are in any kind of a strategic A relationship in Argentina's case it's got Argentina's interested in resolving what happened with the Israeli Embassy in the Jewish Community Center bombings in Brazil's case quite frankly a Self-invite by President Ahmadinejad just recently was turned down. So what kind of a signal does that? send I think the one thing that the United States could do is take advantage of the fact that there are some countries that are very Friendly to us that have relationships with Iran and that we should be talking with them to gain insights into what's going on in Iran and Who's really doing the talking and and? What the the state of the power play in that government might be Yeah, down here, and then we'll go down to Dan Thanks, I'm Lauren McGinnis from Reuters. I've continuing on the theme of drugs and security I wondered how much pressure Obama's likely to face to do more to confront the violence and Trafficking that's happening in Central America, you know after the US having been so involved in Colombia and sort of successfully addressing the problem there it's been described Often as sort of a spillover Sort of the trouble moving as a result of that in the US not doing anything in response I just wondered how how big of a theme that's going to be this weekend Well, one of the things that you have to face Laura is is that? In the trafficking areas in the areas where the actual trafficking is taking place near the borders and things like that It's actually very peaceful It's the where the violence is is in the cities where there's our turf war is going on between rival organizations And that's that's the real problem. So you could say well drug better drug interdiction and Reduction of demand and also treatment would be helpful and that may have some degree of Effect on the overall problem but really the the nub of the issue on violence is Building an institutional capacity into law enforcement police reform and also the criminal justice system And these are still rudimentary reforms in most countries They're all different in each country that the mix of the problems You know the sub-problems is is completely different So you couldn't just say that it's one answer would would fit all but generally it's those two areas in policing and and law enforcement and also providing economic Opportunity for people so that they'll choose something other than a life of crime For a way to survive and to make a living Sorry But how much pressure is President Obama likely to face in terms of the US engagement on that theme in Central America and Mexico Well, he's probably going to give some pressure himself because In terms of law enforcement and police reform those are two things that those countries themselves have got to confront and and in Mexico's case my sense is that Many in Mexico and the Mexican public are still in denial that they have a problem with their judicial Criminal systems and and also their their law enforcement that still have a ways to go to to overcome years of neglect And and certainly Mexico is doing a lot right now, but it's it's a long road ahead But the other thing though in terms of pressure on the United States is that there will be pressure to help pay for some of these reforms and also pay for equipping police and in some cases the military in drug Interdiction and doing certain kinds of things that offer better territorial protection to build up sort of rural gendarmes rural Security forces where some of this Where some of the connections are on drugs and then of course in the cities, but it all takes some money and with limited gross domestic products And then if you've got historically low Taxation Collection tax collection rates The governments themselves are cash strapped, which means they've got to do a better job of collecting their taxes but Also big ticket items Donors like the Inter-American Development Bank others the United States Will play a role in buying some of that stuff if we think that's important to us Yeah, yeah so we had the We had the drama three years ago with the handshake with President Chavez Haven't checked. There's a few days ago. I thought he was still going to show up At the summit what where does he his influence stand in the region at this point? What what impact do you think he has as big as that been compartmentalized to the specific group to the Alba group? What where is all that stand? This one works Luco Chavez is going to command the line limelight No matter where he is or what what state he's in I don't think we really have a very good idea what His health condition is because so we're relying on on Third-party information for most of that and then what he says so we don't know But he's certainly a gifted thespian and he will make the most of every opportunity to make his influence Felt and certainly at this summit to where he's recommended that members of the Alba countries that attend I'm sure that he will Try to do that I've been to the region a couple times recently and I do get the sense that there's been a compartmentalization of his influence I think partially because Some of it's certainly the resources are nice But the policy advice that goes with it oftentimes is perceived as screwball I guess is that's the think tank term for it. So Here and then we'll come back on on the side Well, my name is Gallegorio Meras. I'm correspondent for television whose network For a long time you as you seen the certification process have been putting pressure on the Latin American countries To force them to eradicate the drug production and the traffic etc Now too many countries believe that there was a kind of hypocrisy because Maybe the main problem of it of the drugs is the unstable Unstoppable appetite for drugs in the US Do you think president Obama is going to face a sort of Demand to do something Clear and strong To reduce the appetite of drugs first to stop this muggle of weapons to Mexico that are empowering the cartels to To provide more assistance to Mexico and the latin American countries in a way may be similar to what Have done with Colombia. Well, that's a very good question I think the impression is still that the United States is the major market for this actually the the Use of hard narcotics in the United States has been declining slightly and has really plateaued In the last few years. It's still not to say that It's not a significant amount of Drug flow that comes into this country but at the same time a number of other countries are starting to complain about the Amount of drugs that are coming into their countries and not just for Transshipment other parts of the world, but also to satisfy growing local Markets and consumption Argentina comes to mind. It's got radars up near the Bolivian border and in its School of the north day the the northern shield program that has gotten started chili has plus up its presence on its northern border and It is worried about growing consumption as well as becoming a transit shipment point to for the Pacific And to far away places like New Zealand and in Australia so It's not a problem. It's necessarily localized to the United States and just to the north It goes south and then it goes east and west from there And I think there's some worry about what the long-term future for that will be Do you think Mexico will put? More pressure as but has been doing president Calderón to for somehow the White House to compromise in stopping the flow of weapons to Mexico well, that's a Constitutional issue for the United States and it's not something that's Easily regulated, but certainly there will be pressure to regulate to to some degree to a better degree Gun sales So that There is at least some reduction across the border But again the problem with that is is that guns are kind of like oil They're fungible in that that if the United States If people aren't able to come to the United States and buy them and transport them over the border They're certainly able to get them anywhere else in the world. So it wouldn't make really very much difference for Mexico It's a Problem that they will have to deal with themselves And if you allow me just one more thing you say that the Mexican government have been doing some things but not enough Who do you think is neglecting and refusing to accept that? The problem is bigger and requires a stronger demand a stronger Reforms up to now most of the efforts have been made at the national level in Mexico And that's the easiest one to tackle but the hardest level to tackle are the state and the municipal levels Where reforms are harder to? enact the budgets are smaller and The police pay is typically a lot lower and low pay is is one of the major problems in reforming and Improving the performance of police when you're only making 200 to 250 dollars a month. It's real tough to Look the other way when somebody offers you a bribe and that's that's part of the problem Also the state and the local courts the United States has a very similar Structure in terms of its federal system But in Mexico's case that federal system had been at least at the state and municipal Levels had been neglected for many years. I think we'll take a last round of questions We'll take them all I'll keep tally and we'll we'll let these guys sort of wrap up So let's go here and then Scott and then if you could make your way to a microphone We'll do that. Hi Amy truth BNA. I wanted to ask about Columbia you had mentioned that there was some resentment because it took so long in terms of the free trade agreement I wondered what kind of interaction there might be between President Obama and his Colombian counterpart and also I wanted to ask in terms of the Trans-Pacific Partnership if there's going to be any reaction and I believe Meredith Mentioned something about Interest in Colombian joining an agreement and I kind of wanted to hear a bit more about that. Thank you Okay, Scott. Let's let's take a round Dan I wonder if you could just elaborate a little bit on what is jeopardizing Argentina in the G20 Sir Yeah, I had a quick question With the strong economies you talked about in Central and South America is the United States doing as much as They possibly can to take advantage of that. Okay. That was a good round. So You and take Meredith you and take the FTA TPP piece Dan, maybe Argentina and Can end up with Steve? Yeah, I mean I think the the issue of Colombian TPP is a little premature in the sense that they've got to implement the Existing free trade agreement the bilateral with the US So I'm not sure that that will particularly be a discussion of this meeting I think folks that are interested in supporting an active trade agenda I think Columbia would be a great candidate to join the TPP as soon as it's it feels like it's Willing to do so and interested so I think there'll be a lot of folks in the business community in the United States and so forth that will be Enthusiastic about that prospect But it is a little bit premature because the FTA still has to be implemented Columbia needs to put in some laws and regulations and kind of get get the the FTA up and running now that it's been passed by both governments Take the Argentina one. I think the first is there's this reference to this WTO situation I think that's that's the first point I think the second is they've been lying on their prices for about six or seven years in terms of their inflation rate the Economist has actually Gotten rid of the official Statistics of the country of Argentina I think it's I don't know if there are any other countries where they do this and they use a an alternative system to track prices So nobody nobody takes their official number seriously and then the third is that they're not recognizing their contractual obligations on a number of judicial There've been there've been essence adjudicated conflicts within the World Bank Group There's something called the Ixid don't ask me to tell you what Ixid stands for I know what it's called in Spanish It's called siadi, but I couldn't tell you what it but it's basically and is part of agreements when you as part of But but basically the Argentines have had a number of claims go against them and they've refused to recognize them And so you've got a trade problem You've got this Ixid problem and you've got a lying on Price statistics problem just just as just for starters. So on the issue of Columbia my assumption is is this is a showcase opportunity for President Santos? and so I think that I think it's in both countries interests to to Put the best to have a put the best face on on what I think was in was an unfortunate five-year delay Which was way too long for that for that trade agreement on? economics on The the economic prosperity that's been evident in Central and South America, of course, it's a little more spotty in Central America These economies being small and and also being impacted by The violence and drug trafficking in the area, but South America has been rather impressive in the past Five to six years. Is the United States taking advantage of this? Well, how might the United States do that? Obviously in the growth of trade that's one area that the United States has been able to do that and in the sort of Going by the philosophy that a rising tide lifts all boats I think the United States has been quite correct in pursuing policies of the freer markets a rule of law to help neighbors become more prosperous because if in fact the Latin America is the number four trading partner of the United States then that means that Its prosperity will enable it to buy more US exports I think in terms of being able to do better though that some of those aspects of Rule of law such as institutionalization of criminal proceedings Developing more capacity and in judicial institutions those things are Reforms that have only gone about halfway and if they go further and if the United States is able to push that further It'll have an economic benefit of making those markets Freer and the benefit of course is that it will enable small Enterprises to start up quicker and easier And that will boost the number of jobs and that eventually will affect the genie coefficient and So that will reduce some of the the social inequality Those are all positive things that can come from pressing rule of law reforms Folks thanks again for coming Please let me or Andrew know we can help you get a hold of these experts or any others as the summit is going on Like I said North Korea let us know Victor's around Hope to see some of you at GSF on Wednesday. Take care