 Hello and welcome to NewsClick. Today we have with us a national Badra Kumar and we are going to discuss the current say, Ibrahim Broglieau in Saudi Arabia which has involved President Trump saying he believes that the crown prince has done no wrong and it's all the fault of other people. He's also presented a bill of 450 billion dollars for having said this one presumes. There's been a lot of criticism that Trump is cynical but hasn't this been always the US policy that they have supported shall we say human right violators when there was money involved or American interests and opposed quote unquote human right violators when they're against American policy? Absolutely. You know it's from the point of view of the international community the stunning thing about this statement is that Trump has done as a favor. You know this is US foreign policy you put it you nailed it you know it's completely self-centered devoid of any principles you call it pragmatism realism whatever that is using sophistry but ultimately doing what's in America's interests and any kind of compromises with principles or justice or fair play is possible if the objective is in terms of bringing some returns for America. What Trump has done is completely consistent and if you noticed it on the webpage of the White House this statement starts with the slogan America first. This is really though the caption says it's on Saudi Arabia is really not about Saudi Arabia it's America first. He starts the statement with that slogan which is there on the website in italics and he ends the statement with this America first. So you see it's a statement on America first basically. Historically speaking this has been the American foreign policy and he's reiterated it no American foreign policy president has ever dared to say this as openly and candidly. No fig leaf. No fig leaf and he's completely maybe he said it with vengeance because he had a predecessor whom he hates who always used to speak about American exceptionalism but he's made it very clear that that is completely bogus. There's no such thing as American exceptionalism. It's sheer greed of the United States and its capital. It goes to the credit of Trump that he brought this in. Why did he bring it in? He brought it in not to spite Obama or not to you know make a confession or anything like that. He sizes up that the kind of line that he's going to take on Saudi Arabia will have the highest acceptability in the American public opinion if he projects it as what it is really that this is in the American national interest. He's giving 450 billion reasons why the United States public should support him on this. And that in turn will make the lawmakers in the US Congress think twice if they try to blackmail Trump or pressure. There is always a method in Trump's madness. He clearly anticipates that the likelihood of more damaging materials to come and these can come from sources other than American sources. We know that Turkey is sitting on a lot of information and he knows it too. So therefore if you analyze the statement closely what do you see there? He has not supported the Saudi stance at all. He has taken a detour to justify why the preservation of this relationship is of the utmost importance for the United States. He has even mentioned there that the Crown Prince Mohammed Salman may have known it. Maybe he has not known it. He has even left it open. So he's hinting there that there may be a requirement for a plan B. This may not be the final position. Meanwhile what he has done is he has praised the Saudi Arabians for being a consistent ally of the United States and in the bargain he has slipped in a few demands. He's told the Saudi Arabians that he expects them to bangle the American military presence in the Middle East. He praised them to the heavens that they have been the strongest supporter of the United States in its fight for fight against radical Islamic terrorism. Which as we know has been underpinned by Saudi Arabia. Can there be a more cynical statement than that by a world statesman that Saudi Arabia is so lily white that it is America's strongest supporter. Now this is a country which probably had its hand fully in the 9-11 attack on the World Trade Center in the United States. That's the country that Trump is praising. But then the flip side is he is telling them look buddies the money must continue to flow. So you see it's a very carefully drafted statement extremely ruthless in its strategic calculations. Secondly he has gently reminded them that you promised me when I came there in November last year that you would invest 450 billion dollars in the American economy and this was reinforced or the reiterated also when the Saudi crown prince later visited the United States for projects relating to America first. And then he has also said that this also includes 110 billion dollars for purchasing arms and he has also mentioned the companies from which the Saudi Arabians have agreed to pocket, Boeing and all that to buy. Now it has come out in the American press that the Saudis are not done anything on this arms purchases really so far and that all he has said about this creating tens of thousands of jobs in the U.S. is all in the air only. So he has linked that with the Kashukji issue. This is not just about money. This is also about and I am going to substantiate the point which I wanted to make in the downstream that this is a tall demand for the Saudis and for what reasons and there is going to be a problem here. So you have to bangle the military presence 450 billion dollars out of that a segment of 110 million which is outright purchase which you know how lucrative defense deals are which means basically transferring wealth from Saudi Arabia to the United States. Then comes this question about there is a major contradiction here on the question of oil. Now the relationship was anchored on the understanding between Franklin Roosevelt and the Saudi king in 1945. In the immediate aftermath of the Yalta summit when the war was ending and the Americans were already looking at the post war to scenario and preparing themselves for a quantum leap on the global stage as a superpower. They are just arriving as a superpower and the biggest underpinning they gave for that quantum leap was this relationship with the Saudi Arabians. This went worked splendidly well for both sides. This is really dominating all oil deals in dollars which was the strength of the dollar economy. Yes that is yeah the Saudi Saudis would have seamless political security support from the United States and in lieu of that like to use George Kennan's words famous words those are our resources. The resources will be handled by the United States. This was the whole package at that time. Now there has been a phenomenal shift in the calculus behind this deal in the most recent years. Shale America's diminishing dependence on the Saudi oil and America's growing profile as an oil exporter oil and gas exporter. So the two countries have now become virtually competitors for the world market. We are moving into a different phase altogether. Not only that there is a clash of interests. Clash of interest in so far as the shale oil needs a price which is high enough for the investments to bring in returns. About 70 dollars. Yes yes something like this. But then the point is the shale oil after investments have been made and if the production becomes in a big way and the export turns out etc it can come down also. But on the other hand if the price is too high it will hurt the American economy which is in a boom undeniably today and the credit goes to Trump in the upcoming 2020 presidential poll and therefore certainly between now and 2020 the price should not show up in a way that it will become a factor of domestic discontent socially economically and so on and certainly western allies but Trump doesn't think about western allies. So there is a clash of interests here because it's very well known that Saudi Arabia is in financial difficulties. You know we have a conception that Saudis have a lot of money to throw around but that's not really the case now because there's a growing unemployment there's a very big unemployment problem and it's a very young society rising expectations and the kind of a subsidy which used to be given to people is no longer sustainable and this Crown Prince's program called Vision 2020 2030 and now it may be I read extended as 2035 is basically in two three directions. One is this that they should reduce their dependency on oil and should diversify their economy and secondly they must attract a lot of investments in Saudi Arabia from in terms of FDI and thirdly to find resources for this ambitious program. They have to find resources. This is a different ballgame altogether and one of the ways that they can get this resources is in terms of putting on the market the Aramco. Aramco shares public IPO. Now the main reason why Trump went to Saudi Arabia fairly well known in all people who have been following this is that he wanted Aramco to be listed in New York. Wall Street and then what happens is this equity will be more or less cornered by the American companies. So even though it is five percent only you know Aramco's market value is rewarded as somewhere about some observed amount you know some few trillion dollars worth you know I mean not many countries come even say anywhere near that close to that. So this is a big deal for the Americans but Saudi is a assistant because there is a legislation which allows these 911 victims to sue Saudi Arabia. So they were afraid that if the IPO takes place there they may get into very serious trouble so they're hesitant and the IPO which has to have been this year has been postponed to next year and maybe even beyond that and meanwhile they even started discussing about places like Shanghai to have this IPO. To have it outside the jurisdiction of the US courts. So I'm placing on the table the contradictions on the oil question that have shaped up you know between the two countries keeping 1945 as the benchmark and see how the situation has changed today. It's not easy for Saudi Arabia to fulfill Trump's demands apart from 450 billion dollars. Their interest lies in oil prices going up which has taken them to the Russians and now they have a back to back deal with the Russians. Saudis are really no longer bothered about OPEC they are having a bilateral arrangement with the Russians bilateral understanding with the Russians to decide where the oil price is to be and we know well even though the Russians have budgeted for a price of 54 billion dollars 54 dollars per barrel as oil price for their economy to be functional without any deficit problem and so on and with cushion for various social programs which Putin has lined up money is always welcome you know and so you know the high oil price not very high because you know the they will have other counter effect on the market in terms of dampening the demand and so on a recession is not something which Russians will want so but sufficiently high. So you see there is a three way thing today taking place the United States wanting to prescribe control the oil price and the Saudis and the Russians also having their own interests in the situation and are cooperating very deeply. So in this statement Trump has literally told the Saudis to come back and have it sorted out with the Americans how this they can do it I really don't know. Basically they are asking for a complete subservience because if you want if we bailed out and you want to be the future king yes then you have to play ball the way we want you choose the message they are saying. You will deduce correctly the political message in this in two three directions one is let me put it in first term first in first in first person singular I am facing a lot of flux from other quarters that I should punish you but I am not doing that I know that you have done a horrendous crime is revolting but I don't care because I value our relationship and then I he says I value the relationship for XYZ reasons which if you turn around becomes my wish list now you must fulfill now you must fulfill if you go through the complete statement you will find that he has not defended the Saudi stance even once that's not the issue for him as I am not bothered about it I am coming to that I am not bothered about the right and wrong of what you have done but I am under pressure so now therefore I am a stakeholder for these reasons that you promised so much and that matters to me so what is the corollary if you don't do this buddy then there is going to be a problem you know of course if we see the other part of the US foreign policy assassination drones use of drones to quote unquote take out people baseball cards who are going to be taken out every Tuesday this is a part of the US policy today and they have also supported Israel and its assassinations in different parts of the in West Asia so they have never been particular about this issues as the claim for others this is all the time we have a news click today we'll continue to continue to discuss West Asia, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and other issues in the region with Ambassador Bhadrakumar and on other programs