 You know, look at your next demand zone. You're talking about 10 points on the spies. Now, for now, these are just data points. For now, you could turn to them and say, well, we did hold here. When we did hold here, and we did hold here, we did hold here. Again, the question is, is this time good? Welcome to Access a Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey, guys. Good morning, everybody. Welcome to another edition of the AccessaTrader.com Weekend update, which I hope everybody is having a great weekend. It is right now. Let's see here. It's about a quarter to nine, right? It's about a quarter to nine Sunday morning. My kids have literally four basketball games within the next six hours. So I'm going to be crazy busy today. It's a great. So being a dad is the greatest thing in the world, except when you have 12 basketball games in a weekend. And then you have to figure out where to pick your spots to get refocused, recharged, and get going for the next week. And it's a very, very odd week last week. I think it was interesting. If you remember, if all you guys only just watched the weekend update, if you guys remember last weekend, we were faced with a pretty interesting scenario. This was the first time the SPYs closed below the rising support. And this is where we turned around and said, look, you've got to be a little bit cautious just because, again, when stocks trade from channels from supply to supply, and especially from demand to demand, you have to be flexible to trade both sides of the market. And the way the week started was a really premium week. We were prepared for Monday's session. Market sold off very aggressively. Tech gapped up, got stuffed into supply, they sold it off. Came Tuesday, exactly the same thing happened, and the SPYs improved on their back testing. And the one point when you have to look at technical analysis in the most purest form is you believe that you will get to the next supply zone. But sometimes we always talk about the one thing the stocks and charts don't correlate at times, and there's an old adage that says charts don't lie, but sometimes they don't tell the truth either. And what I mean by that is technical analysis doesn't need to be there in one day, right? Your validation doesn't have to take place in an hour or a minute for something to kind of transpire. And the way the market played out this week, there was a lot more sitting and waiting for a collection of data than anything else. So for example, we were, again, we were prepared for Monday's sell-off, right? We caught the tech sell-off, a lot of names, all technology got really, really killig. If you go back to, again, all of last week's video was starting from Monday and Tuesday, you kind of see what I was thinking. So Monday and Tuesday, really aggressive sell-offs right at the open, tech got stuffed into technology. Wednesday became kind of a very odd area, okay? And for all you guys who remember, especially the Qs, and this was kind of a very, very important point. So the Qs started to sell off on Wednesday, right? And if you guys remember, 3.24 was a, 3.74 was a monster, monster area. And the problem with Wednesday's session was we were sitting literally at 3.24, which was literally the rising 20-day moving average on the Qs, and we sat there for three hours. We literally sat there for three hours. The bulls were defending the 3.24. The bears are trying to seize control of 3.24. And what made that day kind of impossible, right? Think about it, who would actually knowing that there's a line in the same 3.24, how can you justify going long on support? And then how can you justify going short knowing there is support? So we sat there literally from the open till about lunchtime watching this clash of the Titans who would get control over the 3.74 area. And the most really important area part of that was we needed to know what was gonna happen next. So if you guys remember, I literally went to lunch at noon, came back at one. The bulls not only held that 3.24 level, they closed it pretty much at the highs of the day, which was setting up, right? Which was setting up when you have a really good hammer off of rising support, was setting up a really good potential for the next day. So now we knew the bottom of the channel here and now we knew that the bulls needed to reclaim the 10 day moving average. So if you've been watching these videos for a very long time, you know how important the 10 day moving average it is for me. It really does show you the birth of the trade. So the five days is the shortest sentiment, but the 10 day moving average will dictate what should happen next. And the one thing that happened or didn't happen on Thursday was we couldn't get through the 10 day moving average. So what should have been a progression, a build upon what the bulls did the previous day holding that rising 3.24 level and never transpired. And slowly but surely we started kind of fading the day, no fear though, right? Absolutely no fear, but they started fading the day only to rally it up the next day and to improve on the previous day session. So logically going into Friday session and we close right at the 10 day moving average, I was probably, I don't think I could have been any more by bias going into Friday session. I loved Amazon, I loved Netflix. Actually Netflix actually kind of improved on the session. I loved Tesla, I loved NVIDIA. I was really technology long bias. I wasn't long overnight, but I was a long bias. And all I knew is, I knew we had to just confirm this 10 day moving average and the market was going to absolutely rally. And the problem is, and this is where sometimes again where our research doesn't kind of match up to our reality. And we started seeing slowly but surely some strength in the morning, right? Absolutely, Amazon was strong in the morning, Tesla was strong in the morning, Netflix was strong in the morning. I said, all right, it's just a matter of time. Let's just wait for these confirmations. And we should have a very, very big premium day. Da-da-da-da, market started selling off. Did absolutely nothing on that first part of the day, the meat and potatoes turned to day. And not only did we not reclaim the 10 day moving average, we started going back down to Wednesday's low. And this is kind of where we're set up going into Monday session. We are in a really tight channel, right? Very, very tight channel. And this tight channel is going to be kind of an important area of what happens next. And if you're an investor of the market, again, this has really nothing to do with you. Your long-term investments are going to be fine. If you're a long-term investor of Google, you're going to be fine. If you're a long-term investor of Nvidia, you're going to be fine. We're just talking about worst case scenarios. Again, as a trader, your job is always to assess risk. Always, you know what the upper echelon possible potential is, but you also have to know the bottom of the range as well. And this is kind of where we are. If you look at the top of the range here, the queues have been getting stuff around that 379 area, right? That's the top of the range, okay? People talk about top of the range breakouts and bottom of the range breakdowns. Top of the ranges that just means intervals that a lot of data points are stacking up one by one by one. I usually like to use at least a week's worth of data to kind of validate a channel. And if you look at this channel here, this is about a week's worth of action here. So you see the top of the range here, 379. You see the bottom range here at 373. Something's going to give this week, right? And the one thing, and I've been doing this for 22 years, as much as I love a bull market, everybody loves a bull market, right? It's just mentally much more seamless. I never want to use the word easier, but it actually is a little bit easier. I mean, who doesn't love a good bull market when everything's going nuts, when everything's putting in big candles? But after years and years and years, you realize that price action is just price action. You can take advantage of technical analysis, you could take advantage of the other traders' emotions working against them, and you're always looking at the big picture. So what I've been doing for years and years and years, I always play devil's advocate. What happens here, right? What is my worst case scenario here? So I already know that my worst case scenario, if I'm a bull, right? If I'm a perma bull, if I start losing this bottom range here, my worst case scenario is the rising 50-day moving average. Now, before you turn around and say, well, you know, and again, nobody would ever say this, that's trading less than 10 years, but I see a lot of new traders very, very arrogant in their opinion. Okay, you'll realize really quickly how your arrogant opinion doesn't mean anything. But a lot of new traders turn around and say, oh, just buy the dip, buy the dip. Keep this in mind, right? Keep this little channel in mind, right? That's exactly what happened with the spies, right? Spies lost this rising support and went to the 50-day moving average. So if you look at the cues, right? If you look at the cues, the way it is setting up, they're setting up exactly the same way. So if you're a long-term investor, okay? Again, this doesn't apply to you. But if you're a short-term trader and you are taking advantage of price action, don't be arrogant enough to naive to think that the cues cannot follow the spies. And again, there is no fear in the market yet because we've been on such a massive uptrend the last four and a half years. But again, that goes away very, very quickly. If you're sitting there buying the dip of your favorite company and then all of a sudden you get a macro technical sell signal in the market, that little 50-cent move that you say, ah, it's okay, let's buy a dollar move that turns into a $12 candle. And this happened very, very quickly. It happens when you are in your most vulnerable moment, your most emotional state. And what's gonna wind up happening is you're gonna start making emotional decisions. So before that happens is you have to put in the right frame of mind, this is the stock market. The market will go up the same way it's been rallying for generation after generation for generation, but it will have pockets of weakness that number one that you have to know as a active trader on that side of the market or an active investor. But a more important is you don't need to be exposed to what's gonna happen after the fact that the charts are right in front of you, right? Your warning signs are right in front of you. Your technical areas of support and resistance are right in front of you. Everybody gets exactly the same data every single day at exactly the same time. You have two choices. You either respect the data or make believe it doesn't exist, right? But unfortunately, when you pretend it doesn't exist and you put the blinders on, unfortunately, when they do technically confirm and there is potential technical damage, you're gonna feel the technical damage. So the upside of the market, again, we got 379 on the cues. The downside of the market is any close ball 373. And if we do close below 373 on the cues, this is not a subjective conversation. Stocks trade from demand to demand, right? Again, just look at the spies, right? They broke the 20, they went to the 50. And again, here's the problem with the spies. You've seen how many times they held the 50? Look, just in the last couple of months, once, twice, three times, four times, right? The question going into Monday's session is, are the spies going to confirm down? And if they do confirm down, again, if you believe in the theory, stocks trade from supply to supply and demand to demand, look at your next demand zone. You're talking about 10 points on the spies. Now, for now, these are just data points. For now, you could turn to them and say, well, we did hold here. When we did hold here, and we did hold here, we did hold here. Again, the question is, is this time different, right? It's a very, very fair question. It's a responsible question. I don't care if you're trading for two weeks or 22 years or 28 years, whatever the case may be or something in between. These are data points that you have to look at every single day after the close and say, is my money safe? Am I exposed? Am I potentially putting myself in a situation that 12 hours from now, I can be looking at a really ugly reality. You don't want to do that. You want to be prepared. And if we do hold the bottom of the channel here, and if we do hold the bottom of the channel of the Qs, right? Everything will be fine because then we'll start rallying back up. But again, let the market tell you that's what's about to happen. If you're sitting there and just keep on saying, buy the dip, buy the dip, buy the dip, yeah, it's worked because the market's been a tremendous uptrend. But when the market starts to confirm lower levels and you've seen how incredibly aggressive they become, if you go all the way back to May in the Qs, when they close below the initial 20-day moving average and then finally lost the 50-day, you know, you saw a lot of people on social media. Well, cash is a position. You don't need to be cash is in the position. You don't need to be sitting there in the fetal position. You could take advantage of the price action both to the upside and to the downside. But the most important part is be prepared, right? That's the greatest gift you can give yourself going into a trading session, going into a trading year, right? Be prepared for anything that could come at you. I'm not saying anything bad. It shouldn't be insulted that the market could potentially go down. I've been through the worst and the most aggressive bear markets in the history, right? 9-11 was the worst, right? Was the absolute worst market in 2001. 2007 through 2009 was terrible. You guys are facing sometimes days that you have two days of selling and it's like the end of the world. Go two, three years of selling and then you talk to me about the appreciation of to be prepared for it. Nobody told us what was gonna happen back then, right? We had to figure it out. Now you have so much information at your disposal. You have so much technology at the snap of your fingers that you could figure out for yourself what's about to happen next. And that's our job, just to be prepared of what's gonna happen. The problem going into Monday's session is, and again, I don't wanna use the word problem. There are some stocks that look pretty good, right? That kind of with how this sell off, they brush to the side and they look like they're going high. The problem is there's a lot of names in the same indexes that look like they're about to fall off a planet. Something's gotta give here. And again, we don't wanna jump the gun coming into Monday. Again, we wanna be prepared and the most important part is we wanna have some longs on deck, we wanna have some shorts on deck and we have to respect technical analysis. Eventually either 73 falls on the Qs or 79 is gonna get reclaimed. And then and only then can we figure out finally where we could finally get some more aggressive and seamless aggression on that side of the market. Again, to be determined. So let me give you guys some ideas that look good. You know, look at Peloton. Peloton looks like it's going to, again, had this really aggressive sell off. And again, you can see how important the 20 going to the 50, just to kind of case in point of what could happen to the indexes. But you see the 20 going to the 50, losing the 50, having a really, really aggressive move down, again, just to kind of an example of what could happen if the index is confirmed down. But again, here's your first close below the 10 day moving average. Again, the birth of the trade. If Peloton confirms the channel here, you can get a move all the way back down to the bottom of the range. And again, look at a name like Pepsi, right? Same thing here. You got the, yeah, it held the 50 day moving average. If this thing kinda mirrors the indexes and starts building below the 50 day moving average, you got some pretty decent move down. Again, you have to be a little more patient with a name like Pepsi, but you definitely have a lot of good looking potential to the way down. Look at Google, right? It had this monster, monster run. Really good monster run. But look how it closed, right? This is the first close here. If this thing confirms, right? Folks, if we get a pull down in the market and Google confirms, it has room all the way down to 27, 30 to the 50 day moving average. It has a lot of room down. NVIDIA, who's been really one of my favorite stocks in the last couple of years. This thing is, again, also one day away from really getting aggressive to the downside. And on the flip side, there are still pretty good setups to the long side as well. So for every name that's been weak to the downside, you know, look at Tesla, right? Look how strong Tesla is. Look how strong, for example, a name like HZNP is, right? Maybe it's a name a lot of us don't look at on a daily basis, but boy, oh boy, look at his channel here. If this thing confirms this channel here, this thing can really, really, you know, get aggressive to the upside. This snowman has been going nuts. Does anybody even, does anybody even realize how strong, I mean, I know a lot of people do, but this stock has been just an absolute on fire. So there is no clear and imminent threat on both sides of the market. Now we have to actually see which way it confirms. And the most important part is, again, you're either putting on a trade or you're putting on your position, excuse me, I wanna say it a different way. You're either looking for a trade or you're looking for a career, right? Again, I think a lot of times when you're a brand new trader, you're just running wild, you're still in the honeymoon stage, it's all about the action, it's all about the juice, right? It's all about the love affair. As you get older in this business and you become more mature and kind of more reserved, you really understand the importance of kind of gathering data to make your, you make your next move very, very important. So if you are moving, you're moving in a way of, you have complete conviction of your thought process. And last week, it started out very aggressively. And then, yeah, you could pick your spots throughout the week and there was some pretty decent ideas. But the point is we had a way for that confirmation. And the most important part going into this week is, we acknowledge this, right? We acknowledge where we are. It's not a mystery, it's not a guess. We don't have to hope and pray. The information is right in front of us. We either confirm to the upside, we confirm to the downside. And that's not a situation that we see every single week, but we are definitely faced with that reality going into Monday. So know your levels, understand what you're potentially exposed to and make sure, again, the most important part of being in business is staying in business. Guys, no surprises, no expectations. Have a great, great Sunday. And with God's help, I'll see you all tomorrow. Take care, everybody.