 Okay, traders, welcome to today's live market analysis session with me, Patrick Munley. If you can hear me and see the Tick Mill welcome screen, if you just type a Y in the chat box. Okay, so before we get going with today's material, we as always want to adhere to the risk disclaimer. As we probably most of us are aware by now, trading carries an inherent financial risk. You can lose more capital than you necessarily have on deposit. And most importantly for today, the views or opinions expressed by me are solely mine and they are not representative of those held by Tick Mill UK or Tick Mill Europe Limited. So before we get started, I just for those who are here for the first time, want to give you a brief introduction as to who I am and where I'm coming from with respect to the markets. After I graduated from Kings College London, I joined a city consulting firm. I left with some colleagues and went on to successfully co-found and exit a consulting startup, post-emerge, that's a code around late 2004. I then moved on to explore my passion for markets. Let me one second, let me just turn off this audio feed, let's get rid of that. I then went on to explore my passion for markets. So with some capital to play with and some time in my hands I started day trading or should I say day gambling, the S&P and after some early beginners luck ran out, I actually experienced a six-figure financial hit. It was at this point that I had to step back from the markets, a gut-wrenching experience to say the least. But in stepping back, I decided to get serious about trading. And so I sought out a mentor who demonstrated excellence in the field of trading and I worked with him for 18 months or two years. It was a period during which I upped not just my technical game in terms of developing, researching my strategy extensively back and forward testing it, all of which was underpinned by a rigorous risk management approach. But most importantly, during this period of mentorship, I significantly developed my mental game. And probably the most important watershed that occurred during this period was that I moved from being a highly goal-orientated individual focused on financial gains to being purely process-orientated. So what does that actually mean? Well, it means I had to stop focusing on what I could make from the markets and start focusing solely on managing my mindset to allow me to consistently execute my trading strategy oftentimes in the face of negative feedback from the markets in the form of losing trades. Once you become process-orientated and have a professional trading mindset, and you understand the true nature of trading really being a numbers game in which you're simply playing the probabilities, you then lose that emotional investment and that hellish emotional roller coaster of living and dying by the outcome of individual trades. I'm no longer concerned with the outcome of individual trades or even strings of trades. My focus is on the next 100 trades because I know if I focus on excellence in terms of execution, my edge will demonstrate itself over an extended series of outcomes. My multi-strategy approach has delivered profitable annual returns since 2008. From 2013, I've also been managing investor capital through my managed account service delivering annual positive returns and currently responsible for managing a multimillion dollar portfolio. Performance for this service is on the screen at the moment, in the top right-hand corner there. Since 2010, I've also personally mentored over 100 private traders of all experienced levels from complete novices to former CME floor traders in developing the technical and more importantly the mental skills to reap consistent returns from the markets. I've also consulted to numerous brokers and trading education brands contributing written content webinars and live presentation on a range of topics from market analysis to trade and strategy development and execution. In addition to my fund management and private mentoring, I'm also a resident market expert for TICML, providing markets and trade analysis on a daily basis through my daily market outlook and chart of the day. You can subscribe to this via the TICML blog and you can actually receive these directly into your inbox. My other real passion project is as the head of trading and trader education for a leading trader education brand called FXcareerswap.com, offering development and more importantly funding to retail trading talents at FX Careerswap. We don't just develop retail traders market and trading knowledge. We work on mindset development through our structure program that culminates in managing our firms capital at zero personal financial risk on a profit share basis. For those who are interested, I'll post a link in the chat at the end of today's presentation. OK, so that gives you a flavour of where I'm coming from. So let's jump into today's material. Just want to check back and remind you guys in terms of where we are in terms of broader risk assets and the risk markets and our barometer for that being the S&P 500. We have been looking for the markets to top out as they have done over previous pre-election cycles in the September time frame. And what we're looking for now is for risk markets to basically trade sideways to down heading into the election and potentially post the election depending upon the results we get. Obviously, we're hearing a lot of sound bites from Trump at the moment talking about potentially contesting the election if Biden wins. So that's increasing an amount of uncertainty in the markets. We also had the sad passing of Ruth Bader Ginsburg last week and we now have Trump trying to get a new chief justice through to the Supreme Court. That's also causing some concern for markets with respect to the Supreme Court will ultimately be the final arbiter of any legal wranglings with respect to the US election. So I want to keep these charts in mind in terms of the seasonal set up and how the market is playing out at the moment. So let's jump in and look at some charts. So what I've got here is the dollar index. And for those who joined previous sessions, you'll understand this fractal pattern that I've been tracking. And what I'm anticipating is that we see a correction now versus the overlay from the September 2017 set up. And you can see that we've made a low here in September. What we're looking for now is a move higher. And what I've overlaid here, this internal orange box, basically replicates the prior corrected phase. Will it necessarily map perfectly? We don't know. But certainly you can see the similarities in terms of how price action has been developing with the structure being very similar to what we saw during 2017. So ultimately, what that means for me at the moment, anyway, is that I'm looking for a correction here in the dollar. And then I'm looking for new loans as many of you will know who follow me or work with me. I'm pretty structurally bearish the dollar over the coming period, as I've talked about previously. What I also want to highlight here is the similarity in terms of the site indicator here. You can see that we've broken out from the bear channel here. And we had a similar breakout during this prior corrected phase. So everything's sinking up pretty nicely here. And what we're going to be watching for now are levels or areas where we could potentially engage the dollar to initiate new short positions. And we'll look in detail at that now. So what we've got here is the broad dollar index. It's the dollar index versus six pairs, slightly outdated now with respect to the input from the Swedish Krona. And we don't have the Australian dollar factored in here. But what we're looking for is potential confluent areas whereby we could see opportunities to look at reselling the dollar. And we are certainly testing one or getting close to testing one in these coming sessions. These markets have a tendency, or certainly statistically, they have a tendency to you see cycle tops and bottoms either on Fridays and Mondays. That's the highest distribution of market tops and bottoms. So here what we're looking at is a correction to complete basically, we have the descending trend line resistance, we have symmetry swing resistance, and we also have this equality objective here. Let's draw that in into this zone here at the 9450. So what I'm watching for now is for reversal patterns. Now, you can look at these on the intraday time frames, the hourly or the four hour time frame. I don't necessarily suggest going any lower than that as those lower time frames are certainly very noisy, but you can certainly start to probe those intraday time frames hourly or the four hour, watching for reversal patterns, but most importantly really on the daily. You can also see we're testing the channel here in terms of the psych indicator and we're starting to find some resistance there in terms of that momentum study as well. So really want to pay close attention today, tomorrow and Monday as we also have the 50% retracement of that decline from July. So everything's sinking up pretty nicely here. We have the prior spike lows at 9480. So this is the zone, the potential price reversal zone that we really want to keep an eye on in terms of the dollar. Obviously, we're going to look at the majors in a minute and you'll see the implications for those and the current levels are testing there. We'll just quickly take a look at, this is the equal weighted dollar index, the Dow Jones dollar index. And this is dollar index versus the Euro, the Aussie, the yen and the sterling on an equal weighted basis. You see a slightly different pricing structure here, but certainly you can see the similarities in terms of the price action and the setup. And I always like to see the dual confirmation. So if the broad base dollar index is going to roll over from here, then I'm also looking for this equal weight dollar index to roll over from its current levels as well. Where you get that dual confirmation, then for me anyway, and the team I work with, I call it a dollar basket sell signal or dollar basket buy signal. And certainly you can look, when you get a strong signal here, you can certainly start paying attention to the Euro, sterling and the Aussie, not so much the dollar yen, but as you'll see in a minute, I'm watching the dollar yen today. But certainly when you get a reversal in this equal weighted dollar index, then that immediately gives you or should draw your attention to potential opportunities in the Euro Aussie and the sterling. And we're going to take a look at those now. So with the Euro, we are testing in the Euro equality support. So we have equal weight, equal legs into this zone, this 1650, haven't really caught a bit as of yet. We have just below us the symmetry swing support. So let me just draw that in for people who aren't aware of what I'm talking about when I say symmetry swing. So basically we're looking at the largest corrective leg in the current cycle and identifying where that completes as well. And so you can see we're in the zone here, this 1650 to 1586. So we've got about 50 or 60 window here. We're are again, want to be paying close attention to see if we can get a reversal going here in the Euro. Let's just also see if we've got the channel similar to that of the dollar. You can turn that and bring this down here. And you can see we're testing the channel support as well. So if we start to see bids emerge here in the coming sessions, then this could actually then be our fourth wave low sorry, in the Euro. Let me just draw that in for you. So this is wave one and two, extended wave three. This will put us into wave four. And then what we'll be looking for would be at a minimum and equality objective. Oops, that's in the wrong place. Let's put that there and clone that. This would give us this upside target of 121.50. So we just take out those prior cycle highs and that's the pattern or the earlier wave structure for those who follow earlier wave to be looking at certainly or certainly pay attention to the potential for that. Now, if we don't find anyone home here in terms of buyers at this 1580 to 1650 area, then if we go back to the fractal, that would mean that we are likely to extend in terms of the dollar index. So that would see the dollar index pushing up back towards these breakdown lows here. Let's draw that in. So we have this break point here. So that would see the dollar index extending its current gains. And then if we go back to, well, actually we've got to have drawn that I've put the same fractal on the Euro here. So what we're essentially hypothesizing at this stage is that we're in this phase of price action now, similar to the dollar index being in this phase. So if that's going to be the case, then we could actually extend to the downside here to actually retest our breakout point above that 115 high. So we're paying attention to this current level, 1650 to 1586. If we fail here, then we're anticipating that we'll trade down to retest 115. That would be the next area of interest in terms of looking at swing trading this Euro on the long side. And then obviously if we fail to hold 115, then we're looking at potentially meaningfully, trading meaningfully lower in the Euro. But for now, the base case scenario for me is watching this current area. And then if we fail there, watching the 115. So that should give you a sense of what I'm looking at in terms of the Euro. Let's check in with the Dolly Yen. So Dolly Yen did a video on this this morning. We've come into the symmetry swing resistance. We're retesting the broken ascending trend line support where we traded through the bottom of this triangle. And what I'm watching for now is the potential that we put in a double top here, got two nice tails developing at the moment. Obviously I'm gonna wait to see where we close on these. But if we hold this 105, 30, 105, 50 area as resistance, then I think we can see the Dolly Yen trade lower. And certainly I've been looking at a move, something like this to get us down into that 103, 50 zone, which is the 78.6% retracement of the advance here. So that would be the downside objective. So a couple of hundred clips to play for here. But again, we need to see, we need to get the confirmation to either get those closes on the intraday, the four hour or the daily timeframe are the preferred ones to watch for that confirmation. Got the Looney, Dollycat trading up into its symmetry swing resistance. And these prior lows, also the 50% retracement of this decline. So if we can get a reversal here in terms of the Looney, then we should be looking at initiating short positions, certainly targeting a retest of this 130 low. And if we get through there, then the 127 extension comes in at one, 128. So again, paying close attention. It's got a bit of work to do here in terms of the daily timeframe for those who trade my strategy. What I'm looking for is a close back below this near 10 volume wasted average price. This is a five period look back in terms of the ticks and what basically what that's giving us is giving us a look under the hood and the past five days of data and letting us know whether or not there'd be more up ticks than down ticks. So more bids coming into the market and more offers. And at the moment, it looks buoyant, but like I say, watch these closes. If we've got a reversal, always stall out at this level here, consolidate overnight and then tomorrow we get the reversal. That's also the alternative scenario. So certainly want to pay attention to the close here. We're testing some pivotal resistance. Got a similar situation developing here in the Singapore dollar. You can see that we had symmetry swing resistance versus that initial recovery from the post-reaction highs. And so what I've been looking for in the Singapore dollar, again, similar setup is if we can get a reversal here, then I think we make new loads in the Singapore dollar down to 133 currently trade 137. Again, notice these closes. And one of the challenges for me in terms of this setup is the dispersion with respect to where price is trading and the volume wasted average price. So we'll have to watch this one, but watching for reversals here, similar to the Canadian dollar if you don't have the option for trading the Singapore dollar. Let's look at Sterling. Sterling highlighted this pattern in the weekly market outlook. That's on Monday. Saw the similarity or the potential for the similarity. Now again, with these price patterns, you don't necessarily match to the PIP here, but certainly you can see the similarity in structure. And at the moment we're holding this projected ascending trend line support. Now this, the Sterling, we could certainly see a bullish reversal here. And if we get that, then I'll be looking at being long sterling into this evening's close for another leg higher here. And certainly we could be up re-challenging the breakout point here at 1.3050, currently trade 1.2780. So I mean, you know, there's 300 PIPs even just trading back into that prior support to actors resistance, but we could trade meaningfully higher here. UK Chancellor has been out today promising an open-ended checkbook essentially to basically secure the UK economy through these next six months of extended restrictions. The market seemed to cheer that. And so let's see where we close here with Sterling, but certainly an opportunity potentially developing in Sterling. Now again, the equal weighted dollar index, which a cat which takes an equal weighted measure of Sterling is obviously taking its lead at the moment from that bump in Sterling because we're certainly not at this point anyway seeing that Euro strength. The other major constituent being the Aussie. Aussie still trading heavy here. I'm looking for the Aussie basically to test to take out stocks below the 70 level. I think then maybe we can see a bounce, but like I say, to my mind at this stage, it will be just a bounce. Let's just see. I think we've actually exceeded the quality objective here. Let's draw this then. Yeah, we have, but what we've got now is the 161 extension. So this 161 extension, which is coming in perfectly now, this is sending trend lines. So I want to pay attention to 6980 area. And again, you can look at this if you've got the time to be watching the screens. I know there are quite a few screen junkies out there. The intraday timeframe to the hourly, four hour watchful reversal patterns in around this area to look for loans. And we can certainly re-challenge this break point from below in terms of the Aussie. Let's take a look at the Kiwi. Kiwi's trading into potential support here or what I think might be the development of that line in terms of a potential head and shoulders pattern which may develop here in the Kiwi. This to my mind is the first leg down in the corrected pattern. And what I've been looking for ultimately is a push back up into the 67 area. This is obviously, let's just draw this in for clarity. So this is going to be our shoulder and this is our head here. And then we're looking for a right shoulder to develop like so. So look for a move. Any way back up into this 66, 67 area as a shorting opportunity, watch for those reversal patterns to get short. And I'd be looking for a target move down into this 63, 70 in the Kiwi dollar. Let's see the other one is a lot of flagged up here, Euro Yen. So Euro Yen, another symmetry swing setup developing here with the Euro Yen. You can see this last big corrective move we had while I'm looking for an equality objective. So I'm looking for the Euro Yen to test this 122 area and certainly again watch for those reversal patterns as a minimum I would think that we could get a bounce back up into this break point here, which again, those eager eyes, head and shoulders watchers could be the leg that sets up another head and shoulders pattern here in the Euro Yen and then we could see price trade lower to retest this base back towards 119. So this is the level to watch. 122 potential there to get long looking for a 125 test and then lower again if the head and shoulders pattern lays out. So we look Aussie CAD, that's in the range, nothing to do the Kiwi CAD is a bit more interesting. You can see here, got a potential third test of the ascending trend line. And for those who work with me on a regular basis, they will know that these third tests tend to be decent opportunities, high probability opportunities. So any move into this ascending trend line at the 87 handle, again, you can watch on those intraday time frames for reversal setups or reversal patterns. And then again, another potential head and shoulders scenario could develop there in the Kiwi CAD, CAD Swiss, trading in the triangle still, nothing to do there. So let's take a look, S&P 500 testing pivotal support here. If we take out this trend line, then I'm looking for this 31, 36 to be tested. And that would be the equality objective. We also have the weekly S3 coming in there. So again, what I'd be thinking is an interim low to be put in while we then have the potential to back and fill. But ultimately, I think, again, thinking about that pre-presidential election cycle, I think we trade sideways to lower, and certainly we could be back into this 3000 level ahead of the US elections. You can get some type of, sorry, equal weighted, three pushes, three equal legs down, completing a correction into this 3000 level. So that's also on my radar NASDAQ. Whilst it looked like it was gonna hold an equality objective in terms of the channel here, but we're failing. So now we want to think in terms of the quality objective using price pattern here. So this could have the NASDAQ back down at the 10,000 level. And so certainly if we get through these lows at the 1066, then that is gonna open up this 10,000 level NASDAQ. Let's check in with the metals here, gold, continuing to trade in this protracted, what we potentially a fourth wave setup. We have the equality objective, sorry, symmetry swing objective and the equality objective here, all suggesting that we should see an 1800 test. And from there, certainly again, we'll be paying attention for those reversal patterns as buying opportunities. And we could be re-challenging highs and potentially take those out. Certainly if we had into any type of contested US election, that should see money flood into gold. Similar scenario in silver, actually sitting on the trend line support and the equality objective here in silver. So watching for bullish reversal patterns here, silver may lead gold in this instance. So again, paying attention to this 22, 30 area in silver, crude, correcting still here, I think certainly whilst we hold 41, 65, look at the minimum of the 33, 75, we also have the weekly S3 coming in there, 33, 30. And finally, I just wanna highlight copper here. This copper has basically been leading the charge in terms of the correction in commodity currencies, but we look like we might be rolling over here we're sitting on the weekly S3. So I mean, I could see some profit taking and a bit of a pullback, but look for the equality objective initially here. Sorry, the symmetry swing objective, which would bring us into the 290 level. And then again, I think with copper, if we can get this move develop, then I think that would be the first leg in what could be a more meaningful correction. Let's just say. So again, this would coincide with a bit of a pullback in the Aussie and the Kiwi before we then see another leg lower to retest this base back to 277. And then again, we could be thinking about a more meaningful head and shoulders scenario developing in copper. Okay, so those are the main instruments and opportunities I'm monitoring at the moment. Are there any questions? So then ask Nasdaq, what do we measure against that please? Have you said what? You can't really measure the Nasdaq in, yeah, again, it's a risk asset as such, but what the major correlation with the Nasdaq, ironically, had actually been the Aussie. They pretty much been tracking very well and it would now appear as you can see here, you can see the similarities in terms of the structure. Obviously didn't have quite the blow off move that the Nasdaq had, but if you think in terms of risk market or the risk assets being the equity market, then you think in terms of risk FX being that, the Aussie and the Kiwi are the two prime considerations. Hi, Charlie, how are you doing? Patrick, you're right. I couldn't be first. So it's kind of a quick question, it's just more on the equidistant swing. It's just what would you actually, what would kind of like invalidate a swing, so to speak? You have to take out the swing high. So as long as the swing high is in place, then this is the measured move objective. So when it comes to like redrawing, when a trend is like progressing, what kind of, what factors would you look for for that? Well, there's nothing to redraw because whilst the swing high is in place, then this is the pattern. Ah, got it. So the only way you'd have to reconsider this is if we took out that high here. Right, okay. From there to there. Does that make sense? Yeah, it does. Yeah, just wanted to clear that one up. Yeah, swing low and then you'd have a new high. And really in terms of corrections, once we're through the 78.6%, then the likelihood is that there isn't a correction and the trend remains firmly intact and we're going to break out to make new highs. Yeah, good stuff. That makes sense. Yeah, that was just about right. Thanks very much. Any other questions? Taipei, and in the chat box, just so I know that we're all on the same page and everyone's satisfied. Okay, great stuff. Well, look, thanks very much for your time today. I hope this has helped and we will reconvene at the same time next week. Thanks very much.