 Hello and welcome to the Monday market update with me David Madden. Today's date is Monday the 20th of August 2018 and the time has just gone 945 British summer time. Well this week this European session I started off on a very positive note The putty, the Dax and Keck are all up on today's session And the big themes of the week are going to be similar to the themes we saw last week The the talks the trade talks between China and the United States are due to kick off on Wednesday And even though it is just this is just the announcement of talks and it's thought this is just beginning or the Rebeginning of trade talks. There's no guarantee that anything will actually come come from this, but not that as traders are fairly optimistic It wasn't too long ago President Donald Trump stated that that the United States of America is winning the trade war given this slump in the Chinese stock market and also the Chinese currency Both of which have actually fallen since then so Peter Trump probably feels that he can has the upper hand on the same time China or any position whereby they are The stock market and the currency have been relatively weak the last number of weeks So they could be in a position to actually be a bit more accommodating when it comes to actually striking a trade deal with the United States But just because the talks are going ahead and beginning of Wednesday. There's no guarantee anything will actually be reached on the back of it And Turkey is going to remain in focus as well at the back at the back end of last week After the the European close S&P five SME standard and poor's and Moody's both downgraded Turkey's sovereign debt further into junk status This is a concern because if you're an international investor You're you be a bit more concerned about lending money to Turkey And if the Turkish government is finding it difficult to get their hands finding it harder to get their hands on funds It is that that's also going to put Turkish banks in a more difficult position as well And it's a possibility we could see downgrades To individual Turkish banks in the coming days and weeks and should we see that I could then put like I then read my fears Eurozone banks that have exposure to Turkish banks in the form of Euro or Euro or else US Denominated loans the US dollar donated loans are indeed exposure to a large Shareholding in Turkish banks we could see the old fear is that there's a big occasion between the Turkish lira and also the Eurozone as a whole So taking a look at the week ahead and week ahead can be found on our website If you go to cbcmarkets.com under the news and analysis section, you'll see that the week ahead article So covering the major corporate and economic stories of the week So tomorrow we first half figures from persimmon the British home builder on Wednesday We've an update with the minutes from the Federal Reserve also Wednesday. We have second quarter figures from Target on Thursday we have the ECB minutes and on also on Thursday We have the German or French flash PMI so services and manufacturing updates And then also on on Thursday we have third quarter figures from HP and on well beginning of Thursday through Saturday We've ejected all the policy over in the United States of America So taking a look now at some of the major markets, I see how they be appearing this morning So the first day what 100 I've managed to find decent of support from the during the moving average this red line here Which comes into play in around the seven thousand four hundred and eighty nine mark Trailer slightly below it on Wednesday last week But ever since then market has been has been pushing higher As you can see that the markets is pushing higher. We can see a slight increase in negative momentum So setting pressure is waiting which confirms it the open move in the in in the price If you manage to push on higher from here the next ever to keep my for will be this blue line the 50 moving average Which comes into play at seventy six forty six and also acted as both support and resistance only only a few weeks ago So it's been a significant Dometric has been a significant importance recently it makes them more likely there will be a significant importance in the future So that's allowed to keep an eye for on the upside I showed you going to push on higher from there keep on out on the psychology board 7700 mark and if you go beyond that to them be looking up towards the the recent highs of the highs of The highs of June of seven thousand seven hundred and ninety four And then if we go beyond that you could be looking up towards seven thousand nine hundred Taking a look now what's going on on the chair market in the DAX So the DAX managed to receive received received fairly decent support from this area here in around the 12,123 which was to get the lows of late juice market has managed to Has managed to bounce off that and it's pushing higher. It's still in a negative enough position It's it's well below the turn the moving average, which we just suggest that sentiment will remain weak But the near term Things are looking are looking optimistic for the DAX the markets been pushing higher and raising sessions We've seen a slight decline in negative meantings. So once again, the second pressure is waning and also the market is moving higher So we could see the market push up higher from here We could see the market at up towards the twelve thousand five hundred area and if you go beyond that We could be looking at targeting the turning moving average which comes to play at twelve thousand seven hundred and twenty six a break below this area here 12,123 What would would be quite bearish and the potential for for a further losses and we could see the market head down towards 12,000 Take a look now. What's going on over in the US markets, which were in far better shape The S&P 500 at a positive close at the back end of last week as we can see here. What's you the the S&P 500? after a sell-off in the middle of middle of in a in the middle of last week Market has been bouncing back. We're not too far away from the recent highs in earlier this month Which is two thousand eight hundred and sixty three and if you go beyond that trainers will maybe look up towards the all-time I of two thousand eight hundred and seventy seven So we're not too far away from the all-time high in the S&P 500 Which really kind of sums up how positive the sentiment is as also we're pointing out to that the S&P 500 Is not too far away from a full-time high in comparison with the tax which is languishing behind And it's it's a few new points below. It's turning moving average So I get an indication of the differences between the United States and also the rest of Europe It's also tying in what's going on in relation to the Turkish lira You result as a structure of problems of its own before even we see any contagion in relation to the Turkish lira Whereas whereas the US is sort of acting as a bit of a flight to quality safe haven't play at the moment It's only if we do manage to kind of break lower say south of say two thousand eight hundred or two thousand seven hundred and ninety one But that area there that kind of hot that ten pointer twelve point region I'll get active for decent support for the SB 500 It's only if you go south of two thousand seven hundred and ninety one this area here can we then potentially see further losses Another index which is just you do very well, even though it hasn't been making massive moves recently is the NASDAQ 100 The NASDAQ 100 has managed to kind of weather all these kind of storms be at the trade uncertainty with China and also the fear of contagion In relation to the Turkish lira over in Europe The NASDAQ 100 has been a very decent shape Cramped it the high that we saw in the middle of August didn't quite reach the all-time high of July But still it is looking it is looking quite positive We're comfortable to be above the 50 moving average here Which notice how it actually managed to act of support in the beginning of the month While we're in north of this blue line here at the 50 moving average which comes to play at seven two eighty four It's likely the outlet for the S&P event NASDAQ 100 is gonna be impulsive So push hard from here could bring seven thousand five hundred into play If you do drift lower to towards the 50 moving average We may see bars out of the fold and step in seeing as active support recently It's only if you take out this low here on from the 30th of July Which comes to play in around the seven thousand one hundred thirty seven Because that would be potentially paved the way for further losses Take a look now at the gold chart So the back to our last week It's at the back in the last week both of those lowest level since early 2017 But the market the gold market has actually been kind of bouncing back since then so we it's We obviously in this this the long wick on this candle here The market fell down to a slow level since January 2017 the long wick suggests that she indecision And the indecision it would appear that since then the market has been pushing higher So it would appear that the market was driven down to a fresh multimodal low And then fire stepped into the fold to actually push the price up higher because they thought that the sell-up was oversold And then as the market started to push higher again It would appear that short sellers then got nervous and looked to actually buy back their positions to close out their trades I mean I would see them receive the market bounce back here It's worth pointing out that the that the gold market has been clearly been in a downward trend since So the wider picture it remains negative on the near term We could see that this push higher in gold continue and if it does push on higher from here You'll be looking at targeting 1200 or higher up high as a 1204 or as only if I have a really decent rally Can we see the rocket head up towards 1225 or 12 12 36? move the downside Could retest 1160 and if you go south of that you could be heading back down towards a 1150 that region Take a look at what's going on the oil market By the Brent crude oil So Brent crude oil Ever since heading up multi-year high in May hasn't has been broadly speaking pushing lower has been at particularly aggressive sell-off But China is a major important of all It's also the second largest economy in the world and we are seeing some signs that the Chinese economy is slowing down The tariffs are in place for the United States the trade talks The next round the trade trade talks will begin in a couple of days But there's no guarantees anything's actually gonna be achieved at those talks as a trend are a bit concerned about said demand from China For example, so you can see here that that market has been creating lower lows and lower highs It did manage to get decent support after turning moving average here at the red line Which comes into play at 70 spot 48? While we remain above that line this the out as possible the outlook will remain a bit positive But by and large the market has been moving moving off the last few months So I wouldn't I would be mindful of that if you do manage to break below that during the moving average support We come into play in around the kind of $69 mark or perhaps even lows down as 67 spot 50 And if you push higher from here, we really would need to kind of take out to the the mid-July the mid the mid The late July high of around 70 75 dollars and 47 cents before become more confident The awkward trend is actually gonna take off So that's Brent to take a look at WTI now similar situation WTI Where by the market at a multi-year high in June? But still ever since then has been has been pushing lower and yet again Managed to find decent support from the to the moving average this red line here Which comes to play at 64 spot 69 The market has been creeping up again So producer producer you get market to do to push a bit higher bounce back resistance like him into play in a 67 spot 50 or at this at this At the yellow line here at the 50 moving one of the moving average which comes to play at 68 spot 68 spot 60 but like I was saying If you do make it dig a decent support of the 20 moving average and break below that Because they bring in the early June low into play at 63 spot 58 Take a look now at the Euro dollar So the Europe in this study losing crown diversity the US dollar since April The fact is actually just off. It wasn't that long ago. We were back in levels not seen Since that from June last year. So we're talking about 14 month lows the market Has been steady in a downward trend even though that she is pushing higher at the moment If you do manage to get a push on higher on the Euro dollar We could be looking running resistance in around the one spot 15 10 area And if you go beyond that the 50 moving average is blue line here in a one spot 16 16 might come into play but that only if we have a Solid our downward trend to get him at the University of the US dollar We could see a the decreasing triangle here. That was in formation. So if you draw a line between the highs of June Connecting all the collecting all the highs in July with this with a line straight across here This kind of base formation and once about 15 10 if we measure but that appears to be a decreasing triangle and which is a continuation pattern and the pattern before that That's before there was a downward trend So it looks like we could see what the other downward trend continue And if you kind of measure the gap between the base of the triangle, which would be the height here at one spot One spot 18 51 down to one spot 15 one spot 15 10 It's about a three hundred fifth three hundred forty point PIP Base and if you project that down the way it brings us down towards one spot 1170. So They kind of work on a medium to cut it medium to longer term target on the Euro dollar could be down as low as one spot 1170 in the near term if you manage to take out the most recent loads We could be looking at heading back down towards the one one spot 1250 area Lastly now look at the palm of the first of the US dollar Palm dollar has also been losing ground for the since April. So it's been a study study decline We have seen a bit we have seen a bit of a bounce back in starting in the last couple of sessions But nothing major ultimately Brexit uncertainties are still very much angle over the starting if we do manage to If you do manage to keep pushing lower and the downward trend still remains in play We could see one spot 25 90 be being targeted 11 last seen in June last year And if you do manage to actually have a better bounce back with our resistance might come into play In around this area here in one spot 29 57. Well, that's all for me this week. Thank you very much