 Okay, very good morning to you. It is Monday, the 7th of December, so have been doing well and had a fantastic weekend Going to do my usual routine on a Monday So I'm going to summarize some of the main headlines over the weekend and then going to give you an update on a few key things to look out for in Fundamental kind of themes for the week ahead and for any of the kind of more chart Analysis from a technical perspective and trade setups the team will be going through all of that live on Amplify live. So do check that out if you're not already part of the community But just having a look at the charts this morning and looking at how sentiment is as we recommence a fresh week and a couple of observations equity index futures just very minor negative territory Nothing really too great to speak of there a little bit softer overnight in Asia some new talk about US sanctions On Chinese officials coming overnight But in contrast we have some positive export and trade data coming out of China Otherwise Brexit very much a dominant theme as you've seen over the weekend and Sterling is underperforming against its European counterpart a little bit this morning Cables down around 40 pips you can see here in the top-center chart in the futures trading around I'm finding some support at the 134 handle for the moment. You're a dollar down just 12 by comparison Otherwise elsewhere gold not too much movement seen in the overnight session If anything just grinding up just a touch wrap around three and a half dollars top right and in the bottom right You've got t-notes, which is up around two to three ticks in the overnight session Just finding in the futures bit of resistance and tightening in price action around the pivot Which it resides just below at the moment with some of the softness seen in the equity index futures Oil markets are trading around a $46 handle. So we still remain at the top end of the kind of band On trading range that we are in predominantly from a most of last week Obviously the market generally liking what it heard from OPEC plus in that agreement to increase a level of production But only 500,000 brows per day But having now a sequence of monthly reviews going forward And so we continue to kind of monitor now We know the supply picture at the demand side with things like more vaccine updates expected this week Which I can talk about in a moment. So that's the overall kind of theme As we get into things so let me just go into a couple of these stories in more detail And we'll look at a calendar and main events that we're we're monitoring. So starting with Asia as I mentioned We have some Chinese data overnight So Chinese exports rose at the fastest pace in almost three years in November So the number for exports came in at twenty one point one percent versus expected twelve percent So particularly strong analysts that improving domestic demand and higher commodity prices Helping boy the reading But if you remember with the PMIs that we had last week in China both from a manufacturing and services perspective Both pretty much accelerating at around decade-type levels in terms of speed But now also exports the fastest pace in almost three years So continuation of pretty pretty decent numbers coming out of of China Take for them their accuracy as you will but Overall, this is a positive kind of sign for the overall global picture at the moment and for short-term sentiment That China is not just stabilizing but performing and functioning fairly well at the moment On the flip side though from a political point of view Donald Trump seems pretty intent in just getting the final few blows In before he departs from the White House and the US is said to be preparing To sanction at least dozen more Chinese officials over their role in recent Disqualification of Hong Kong legislators according to two people familiar with the plan So at the moment China hasn't really responded to this Obviously we'll keep an eye out if they do I don't anticipate that they will be Particularly harsh on any type of rhetoric given the fact that now The the transition is kind of underway, but it's worth just keeping an eye on this And certainly as Biden comes in How they're going to tackle if they do in a more unified form with the rest of the kind of mainland Europe and the UK for instance, so still still bubbling away in the background But I wouldn't say it's a particular particular focal point for for markets this morning that needs us then on to Probably was the most dominant new scene over the weekend, which is that of Brexit Actually, as I'm speaking I can see pound just slipping again a little bit down to the s1 now in the sterling futures contract and let me get up to speed and what the latest is which is that UK and the EU Are striving to finalize a deal before This evening a compromise on the long-standing stumbling block of which was the access to British Fishing waters is starting to emerge. I a compromise on that contentious issue According to people familiar with discussions on both sides and reading through the press both last night and this morning It seems like and in actuality I'm not sure how much more symbolic than it was actually even actually getting a deal done in In its difficulty on that particular issue. So it looks like that's been resolved That would mean then the level competitive playing field is now one of the main last remaining issues to deal with EU chief negotiator Barney a this morning. He's been out on the wires He's basically told EU envoys that there is no UK trade deal yet. The three main issues are still open as according to EU source and So overall the pound has traded a little bit weak if you remember It's mainly been driven if anything by persistent dollar weakness last week I mean the Dixie this morning is actually up around just shy of two tenths of one percent So it is weighing on those major pairs But the underperformance of the fact that look no trade deal has come as yet If you remember we started last week the same as we start this week that was supposed to be a deal It's been pretty much a recurring pattern We've had for the last several weeks and then here we are again Monday morning, and there's still nothing concrete as yet Tonight is apparently going to be The kind of the self-imposed the night that a deal is going to get done and the reasoning for that is that it needs to Be then ratified with enough time before the end of the transition period at the end of the year So what I would say is if you're trading any sterling position today It's going to be particularly acceptable to headline your noise because I'd say the rumour mill and various different sources is probably going to be in Full flow today, so just be be mindful and be careful of that in terms of any type of deal Concrete coming out remember normally have a full day's worth of Deliberations and then by around 4 p.m. Type time London time is when normally we get the exit then for the day's talks And we know the the kind of outcome of where we stand and that can create quite a meaningful move in sterling As I speak I'm just seeing some new headlines come out Barnier was relatively downbeat on the prospect for a deal in this morning's briefing according to a senior EU ambassador has just come out now probably why we've just bumped down just a little bit more in sterling just now Separately another thing to be aware of is the UK's internal market bill If you remember that that was the one that broke The law so to speak in regards to what was a contested issue Just a few weeks ago That's to return to the House of Commons on Monday The government intends to reinstate controversial clauses that would give ministers powers to rewrite parts of the original Brexit divorce deal after the House of Laws removed them, but And importantly what we have seen over the weekend is that a signal That p.m. Johnson could be preparing for an agreement He's prepared to drop those clauses if they are no longer needed according to people familiar with the matter Remember EU were going to sue the UK for reneging on this deal on the terms legally that it had agreed to With then securing the exit and then transition back in January of this year Basically what long story short was happening according to sources at the weekend Is the Johnson's willing to say look okay fine We'll basically drop this whole internal market bill some of these clauses in order certain appease and get a deal over the line So it definitely looks like we are centering in on some kind of deal at the moment so Deal or no deal. I guess is if they are able to get something later on today I'd expect then a kind of recovery a full-point move I think it wouldn't be out of out of the realm of possibility in terms of a relief rally back to the upside to Reverse costs and the selling we've seen overnight in the end of last week If they have an inability to do so then I think we continue to just trade quite heavy and sterling As we go through the week that's probably gonna just wait even further more and more so Okay, a quick look elsewhere one of the other big things I think this week And something which obviously has supported general equity direction Which has been this forever push to kind of all-time high territory has been this talk last week that we had about Stimulus and so President Trump and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell will come on board With the apparent 908 billion dollar package to provide pandemic relief according to a bipartisan Group this was citing Bill Cassidy a Republican from Louisiana That they're seeking legislation before the end of the year So I guess anything in regard to that will be quite key and whether that's going to be successful in Progressing or not then in a more negative way Goldman Sachs I read in a comment from one of their notes the weekend said they believe That that number will be riddled whittle bound to around 700 billion dollars once Republicans demands are met so the idea here being that markets generally like what's happening from equity perspective when we get closer to stimulus talks and so Anything more than that confirmation just supports the underlying trend a Continuation going in towards the year-end particularly the risk of a government shutdown looming as one of about a week's time Also at the end of this week Then that could well start to weigh as a negative headwind one thing to be aware of then Politicians are somewhat incentivized to get something done sooner rather than later This is looking at the latest new reported cases by day on the seven-day average in the US And you can see we are starting to see that little Thanksgiving bump Starting to come in which many had feared and new reported deaths Certainly are up there at the highest that they've ever been And then hospitalized COVID-19 patients by day is particularly high at the moment up at around that consistent 100,000 level and what this has led to is that California will impose their home orders in areas where Intensive care units are close to capacity remember even last week around Thursday Friday They were 85% so given these rates put it even closer to maximum capacity now and New York City's average Positive test rate rose above 5% for the first time since May at the moment. So still a very serious and evolving situation in a negative way Which means then that you know if politicians aren't in the coming weeks able to really come to market with a sizable stimulus relief package then We we could find this kind of gravy train all one-way direction to all-time highs and equities could see a little bit of a blip But I would say that expectations are that they will probably broker some kind of deal because they have to That generally seems to be the way at which politicians seem to work On that front on vaccines a couple things to be aware of Britain is preparing for the first country to roll out Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine this week initially making the shots available at hospitals before distributing stocks to doctors clinics The other main thing we're looking out for this week Which particularly could be be one of the key events is that the US FDA Meets to discuss the vaccine made by the companies Pfizer-BioNTech on Thursday if the FDA Authorizes emergency use what this means then is that human health services Secretary Alex Azar over the weekend said that Vaccine distribution in the US could begin within 24 hours So kind of very reminiscent of what we had once we had UK approval last week Could we see that in the US as soon as this Thursday and obviously? Securing this authorization process to then start getting at least underway some of the frontline workers Particularly in a very stressed situation like we're seeing in the state of California for example where hospitalizations and nearing capacity is Very important for continuation of some of the the general market direction We've had of late both with increasing US yields securing of a vaccine the stimulus talk These will all continue to roll over as key themes for this week because overall US data is fairly quiet So they will be quite dominant still as key themes The other thing is from a central bank decision. I mean we do have things like DCB as well coming out We know that this lady here the president Christine Lagarde is very much expected to Deliver an increase of 500 billion euros to the PEP the pandemic emergency purchase program and also to extend it out The pandemic by a bond buying program to at least the end of next year We heard sources comment saying to that fact last week New economic projections need to be a likely to show the eurozone economy contracting in the current quarter as Opposed to when they last issued their forecasts, which would have been back in September, of course They were forecasting expansion So the reality setting in then as we've seen in countries like Germany, for example Who continue to roll over a fairly stringent degree of restrictions as although we're hitting a somewhat plateau in some of these areas of new Cases they just want to make sure that they get this virus under control. And so therefore Limitations to a certain degree of normal operating Kind of rules if you like have been slow to come back in the reopening of these economies And that's having an economic impact and so hence the reason why the ECB needs to take further action Definitely for sure we need to be watching out for what Christine Lagarde has to say in the following press conference as well Which will come on Thursday and really reference at all to the euro given the fact that We have traded up close towards one twenty two now And obviously that's two four points above the previous area of concern that the ECB had shown when the euro had got to those levels Before just back in September. I guess one of the stress points At the moment is that It's very difficult I think for the ECB to really get that euro recent move higher under control because predominantly it's being driven by not so much euro strength But more dollar weakness. So I'm interested to see what she has to say there What the ECB can can do or construct in a form of a type of rhetoric or forward guidance to try and harness that euro In terms of the continue move higher that we've seen Looking at the week ahead so Monday today it is pretty quiet We'll be looking out for Brexit updates That's probably one of the main days this week is today on that that you will see the pound fairly sensitive As I said, it could be particularly volatile because they're expecting an increase in a number of sources That will then dictate then whether or not the House of Commons debates and the Lord's amendments to eternal market bill We'll need to go ahead or not. I'm sure Boris might use that as a little bit of leverage to hopefully try to get a deal over the line We shall see in due course Then going on to Tuesday. You've got the likes of German ZDW Eurozone GDP, but this is Q3 final readings As you can see pretty light on the docket then both for Monday and Tuesday on the US data front Wednesday Put the German and Chinese. Excuse me inflation readings CPI and PPI You also get job job openings in the US and you've got the Bank of Canada rate decision Not expecting much in a way of any policy changes there Thursday We get UK GDP readings Expensive come a little bit back down to reality after the big pop that we had in the prior reading so He considers this estimate for a move back down to point four percent from ten point one previously We then have the ECB rate decision as mentioned and you've also got US CPI, which is anticipated to have risen But a couple of things to be aware of here with US data CPI I don't think is I think it's still a relative tier one piece of macroeconomic information, but how market moving it is Probably not a great deal I would say and we are anticipating a slight slowdown in in demand at the moment and then with US numbers on Friday You do get University of Michigan the December preliminary reading Which is expected to show slight deterioration from the prior time out and that's mainly down to the fact that of course we've been seeing a worsening coronavirus situation in in the US and The restrictions coming into play which is going to have dampened consumer sentiment to a certain degree So that's that's pretty much the week as you can see is it pretty quiet in terms of major calendar events in terms of data US CPI Michigan on Friday CP on Thursday jobless on Thursday as well. Of course ECB on on Thursday Otherwise, I'd say more of the major themes centered around the latest Brexit situation for sterling specifically Vaccine update coming out from the US FDA approval not on Thursday on Pfizer by NTECH and then also you've got Just a general theme on the stimulus tools coming out the US which will be quite critical this week So that should run down as I said, I haven't looked at the charts at all. I'm aware of that Sam Tim and the other guys will go to all the charts in greater detail on Amplify live So look forward to seeing you guys in there and I will see you same time tomorrow. Thanks very much