 Hi, everyone, Mish Schneider here, Chief Strategist of MarketGauge.com, October 17, the end of the day. And of course, there's no shortage of news going around. So what we're going to try to do is quiet all that noise, focus on a few instruments, including obviously what you see in front of you, which is the dollar yen pair. But then we're going to move on to the SPX, a couple of big earnings reports this week taking a look at those stocks, and then have our final look, of course, at the futures markets with particularly oil and gold, the two most potentially impacted commodities as we see things progress, or at least stay lateral. We're not really sure yet as far as the Hamas-Israeli situation is concerned. So let's get started here right now with the chart of the USDJPY. Such an interesting chart, because really, since we've spoken about this last week, we mentioned that $148.50 was the number that it had to break below, so let me get right down to it. It breaks below this, well, $148.50, you can say $148.40, $148.40, $148.50, whatever. You know, it's a very, very small difference between the two. But you can see why I would think that that would be such an important area to hold for the dollar to remain strong or fail for the yen to start catching up. And especially if you follow the cursor to the left here, you can see the dotted line. And we go back to a low here before we shot up. And then of course we go back to the last gas pie before it sold off, never took that point out again. And then of course had the major sell off in terms of the dollar. And of course we're looking at on November 2022, so a year ago. But right now, that hasn't happened yet. We've seen some intraday moves that have weakened the dollar, but it comes right back to in its favor. And of course we know why it's still a flight of safety. However, I still say that as a flight of safety, given everything that is going on, it's not really impressed me all that much, at least not yet. Over 107.50 in terms of the pure DXY, then I would start to think, okay, we're heading up to 110. However, just as this has not broken down, it hasn't exactly broken out either. Remember this one day, maybe the Bank of Japan intervened, maybe they didn't. This range is still intact. So we have to go back to the top of that range at 150.16. And we take that out, again we have to go to some history. Then it would look like 150.30, which is not that much higher. And of course the peak high from that day, which would be 151.91. So that would probably be the next area before we start to see some profit taking coming in. Now, of course we must look at momentum, which we said had a mean reversion. And we're still working that mean reversion. However, we're also holding the 50 day moving average. So on top of a rally here to prove further strength in the dollar, we would also have to see the momentum get back over all these levels or over the Bollinger Band. And then it's very possible that we'll start to see things get worse for the end and a lot better for the dollar. Okay, let's move on. So now we have to take a look at the big earnings for this week. And of course there'll be a few, and by the way, American Airlines, I believe it was, or Delta Airlines. One of the airlines just reported, obviously better than expected. But remember with earnings, before you get too bogged down, there's always the reaction, but you have to remember that they're also lagging indicators, not necessarily leading indicators, until we hear conference calls with CEOs that tell us what their expectation is going forward. And that of course means that we'll hear from Elon Musk for sure. This is Tesla, and we have two time frames we're looking at here. One of course is the monthly chart. So this is a 23 month, this is an 80 month. And I've talked a lot about the 80 month, particularly when it comes to small caps. When it comes to Tesla, you can see it had a perfect drunk to it. This was at the very beginning of 2023. And here we've had this rally where we've taken out the 23 month or the two year business cycle. But except for that one big month that we had in July before we got into that July calendar reset, which we'll talk about in a moment, we've really been just kind of hanging out around this 23 month moving average with a negative slope I might add. So that's the monthly basis. To me, the monthly basis suggests potentially lower. However, if we look at the daily chart, here's that six month calendar range. So I mentioned it got reset in July, it broke down under the six month calendar range low, had a brief visit above it here in September, tried hard to get through it so far. This month hasn't been able to. So when we look at those six month calendar ranges, we have to make an assumption that that means it's weak from a seasonal standpoint. However, we had this beautiful exhaustion gap bottom here. That was probably your best indicator right here to get back into it. And now it sat right today on its correction on the 50 day moving average. So to me, that makes it pretty easy for coming into or at least right after earnings. 250, let's mark that down as your pivotal area. We get above 250. I would say that we're gonna be looking at two, well, really basically 257. I would say somewhere between 257 and 257. 50 would be a good point to clear. And if it does that, then we're back looking at probably that six month calendar range low or 265. Of course, 250. We've had a series of higher lows. Here you go on every peak down. So there's one, there's two. And so far, I wouldn't exactly necessarily call this a peak low, but there's three. So that means just looking at today's range, if we break down under 247, which was the low of the day, and under 250 of course, then I would think that this is going to have some issues. And we could see 240 pretty quickly, maybe even down to 230. And I'm mentioning that to you because my gut is that Tesla will actually go down. Not necessarily forever, but at least in the near term and certainly as a reaction to earnings. And it is underperforming the spy. Here's our leadership indicator. And then on momentum, we have a bearish divergent because it's actually trading below the 50 day moving average, even though price is sitting on it. Okay, the other big earnings this week is Netflix. Now it's so interesting because Netflix has already been so beaten up. Clearly it had issues with the writer strike and then it's raised its subscription prices, its password sharing. I don't think they ever really successfully were able to bust that. And there was a whole host of things, but actually the writer strike is over. And as we're getting into a season where people might be home more, it's possible that Netflix will actually improve over time. But for right this moment in time, here's your monthly. So we had a death cross in the monthly chart, but yet it's sitting right on the 80 month moving average. So it broke down sharply here in 2022. And that would have been for this a poor business cycle, but instead it came back through and it even took out the 23 month. But it ran into all the resistance that it had here really going back into 2021, never was able to take out that 475, 480. So that's like the big, big overhead number. Now looking a little bit more near term here, you can see psychologically, anywhere from 350 down to 345, that should be your area of support. If it breaks that below, then I think we'll obviously see some issues and we'll look at the daily chart in the moment. But if it can hold 345 to 350 level, particularly if it gets its way back up over this 80 month, then it is possible that we'll actually see it move probably immediately up to 375 to 380. And then of course we'd be looking at 400 and so on. In terms of the daily chart, we've broken down in everything. By the way, look at your six month calendar range. So when I say you can have fake outs up and down, technically what it's really telling you is once you break that six month calendar range low, seasonally it's showing a lot of weakness. Look how weak it is relative to the benchmark of SPY. On the real motion indicator, we had a little bit of a mean reversion here. We got kind of a pop, but it didn't really go anywhere. Obviously we had a death cross here in the momentum indicator. So that was also another clue that it was gonna go lower. And now we're sort of skidding along here against the Bollinger band. Today's action was not that great. And so we have to kind of zoom out a little bit here. And to me, the most important area, besides what I just showed you in 345 on the monthly chart, is this 345 gap that it had back in May of 2023. So it has to hold 345. Otherwise, again, I think we can see 330, maybe even lower. Last lows that we had back here, which was in the early part of May was down at around 313. And of course on the flip side, we hold that 345. That gives you a nice level to be looking at. 355 would be another one, more immediate. And then I think we get through really 367. I would be looking at that 375 and beyond. So next we're gonna take a look at the SPX. This is the S&P 500 index. So clean, so amazingly clean here. This rally off the 200 day moving average right into the 50 day moving average. This is so good to know about charts because they behave themselves. Like I said, they quiet the noise. So again, makes our job kind of easy. We get through 440, then it looks 450 would be probably the next place that people would be looking. We don't get through 440, particularly with everything going on. And we start breaking down, right under where we kind of closed today, which is 4,373. Then I would say that's your pivotal number by the way. Above that, more friendly. Of course, we still have to get through that 440. Below that, more negative. And then of course we're starting to look at some support that will come in at around 4,340. Under that though, I think we could make a pretty good trip rather quickly to about 4,270. And of course, here's your 200 day moving average that comes in just above 4,200. And that's the number that everybody's looking at. So of course we'll see what happens there. We've held it so many times, you have to wonder what happens the next time we visit it. Now on the actual momentum indicator, also interesting because we have a bearish diversion. We've had a bearish divergence for a while in that this is under the 200 and under the 50. Here it's over the 200 and under the 50. And of course, even though we cleared the Bollinger Band here until we really get back over the moving averages, we cannot call this a strong momentum. So given what I just mentioned about that pivotal area, about 4,370. If this starts to wane in momentum along with that or even if volatility starts to pick up, then I would think the next area we'd be looking at at momentum is here. And if you look at where we were chart wise when the momentum was down here below this particular day was at 4,216. So there you go. To me, it doesn't have any reason to stop there the next time we visit. So that's as far as the SPX goes. What's so amazing to me about oil, people say, well, why isn't it at $100 already given all of the geopolitical stress? Well, there's a couple of reasons. One is we are still exporting oil here in the United States. Two is this talk of making a deal with Venezuela. Three is, like I said, right now Iran is not involved. Israel Hamas are not exactly oil rich nations. If Iran got involved, different picture. So again, let's quiet the noise and look at the chart. So you've got a 50 day moving average here that we're really basically using as a pivotal number. So we can call it 85, let's get more exact here, 85, 15. So let's say 85, 15 is really the number that we have to keep an eye on above positive, below negative. We get through that, of course, your next real big point would be over 88. We get back over 88, by the way. This is the December contract. And then I think we'll be looking at 90 pretty easily. You can see, if we just go back to these levels right here where there was great resistance, we cleared it for like intraday. We closed at it on this day, but we haven't really actually cleared or confirmed above it. So you gotta keep your eye really basically on 93.70. If we get through that 88 to me, that would be, like I said, the big number. And of course, the pivotal, just to give it to you again, would be about 85, 15. Do I get negative oil? Not really, not until we break down under the 200 day moving average. Lastly, let's take a look at gold. Here's another chart that we might say, oh gee, why isn't it trading higher? But remember that 1865, that was my number. So that's still my number in terms of bottom line support. But at this point now, we could probably raise that and say 1,900 is the area to hold. We break down under 1,900. I don't know what we can assume about that, but we can certainly make assumptions that at least that it's not as bullish as it is right now. And even though we had that dead cross here with the 50 underneath the 200, we're sitting right here at that 200. So that's 1,940. So 1,900 is your big support. 1,940 is your interim resistance. And of course, if we can get through that 1,940, not only do I think these last couple of days inside this big bar that we made last week means a much bigger move higher. Yes, of course, we have to look at the classic areas of resistance, like 1,950 up to 1,970. I like 1,980. To me, that's the next big area to clear. So if we go from 1,940 to 1,980, we clear 1,980. I don't even see why 2,000 is all that important. I think we can go through 2,000 and continue on higher. Also from a geopolitical standpoint, that's probably not really good news. On the flip side, of course, we break down. Even we can even go tighter here. We can say under 1,920. Then we might be looking at a little bit more of a correction back down to that 1,900. So let's say above 1,920, friendly, above 1,940, definitely friendly, above 1,980, up we go. Below 1,940, eh, 1,920, yeah, a little bit more negative. Of course, and then under 1,900, all bets are off. Peace breaks out in the world. Okay, that's it for now. Thanks so much for watching. Hope this was helpful. Y'all have a great day and happy trading.