 The following is a presentation of TFNN The power trading hour with your host David white Call now toll-free at 1-877-927-6648 or internationally at 727-873-7618 Now David white and welcome all to another excellent power trading hour as Always it doesn't matter where you're at as long as you're here and with me at the appointed time The following takes place between 2 p.m. And 3 p.m. So what do we have? Well, we're up a little bit Early expiration this month on the 14th the course closed on the 15th that Friday good Friday, right? so our Easter weekend so I'm gonna be having a kind of a front-loaded market here options continue to be rather bearish from option market makers for that 14th, which is what 10 11 days from now Yeah, had a frog in my throat Anyway So everybody's kind of diving back in kind of acting like nothing happened last week the biggest thing is The amount of stocks that are lower Are is pretty horrific compared to the handful of The usual suspects that are higher and holding the index is higher But as far as I can tell We're still for the bulk of the market in a Distribution mode and I think that goes on for a while as I said I'm pretty bearish I'll take any opportunity for bounces to add more to short positions Until the option market makers tell me now that I'm on the wrong side, but at the moment They're all there. So I don't know what it's gonna happen. We've had kind of the easy part In the market and now we're getting to the part where I suspect is the long Extended sell-off and we'll have days like this, but If we are in the bear market, I think we'll probably see the Dow and the S&P Reverse pretty much everything that we've seen maybe even into Friday in the next Well, I'll say next trading day by the time we talk tomorrow Probably gonna get at least started Wednesday is Delta neutral day and then I'll get a much better read Maybe they'll tell me I'm all wet, but I don't think so Volume has been incredibly light on rallies in the last few months and that kind of tells you what's going on As I always quote the CBO we consolidated tape We are just a hair under seven billion shares So this is a very light volume rally and that started off early in the day One of the reasons why we're probably kind of light tends to be Tends to be Probably because there's almost no shorts in the market. There's I'm gonna say we're probably pretty close and I didn't do the numbers over the weekend probably should have but just Eyeballing it. We're probably very close to some of the lowest levels of short selling Even in the Friday, you couldn't get anybody to buy any huge amounts of downside In the market by the end of the day, we were back down to some historical lows That's generally not an indication that you're not going lower But it is a big indication that if you go lower, it is significantly lower So if this market starts to slide over the next two Couple of days do not be surprised if we blow out the lows from Friday Fairly succinctly there are not many if any Short sellers that are going to be there to slow the roll lower We also have a fairly good amount of The Fed job boning and moving and trying to hold the markets up but hey, what can you say eight seven seven nine two seven six six four eight and And What else do we have email me at path at tfnn.com and What else do we have? That's some emails already Repeat What's my take on Tesla? Well, we have kind of two things right with Tesla He went out and bought a big hunk of Twitter and my thought on This kind of all goes together he wanted to be able to do what other big Movers and shakers have done which is own enough of a newspaper or a Outlet like a cable news station so that you can beat on your foes because they've beat on you and of course, we've got the old CEO of Amazon who owns one of the Washington papers so he can influence the politicians but There's an old saying when I heard that Elon had bought 9% of of Twitter today and it did bounce fairly fairly well and that was You don't Was a quote you don't get in a Fight with someone who buys ink by the barrel and that was an old saying that went back before of course even television and radio That you were never gonna win because they're gonna be there tomorrow beating you up if they want to and there's not a whole lot You can do about it He wants I apparently for a couple billion dollars You can get the little just one tick under control of The amount of shares you need to to control Twitter So I think at the moment what he's saying is You know, all I have to do is buy one more percent about nine I buy one more percent and a lot of people think you got to buy 51 percent of a Of a company stock to get control There have been people that really had control with less than five or six percent. They just happen to be the Yeah, the biggest whale, but of course in an Atlantic Ocean, but You get the right things and especially people like to follow Musk. He's kind of a hide piper He certainly could get it and I think he just wants a fair shake. He's tired of everybody Trying to censor him. I know how he feels Most people are like that, but I think Getting rid of the Deadwood over at Twitter and a lot of the the folks that I Guess just missed all the history class of Stalinism and all the other kind of authoritarianism and book burnings by the Nazis but Yeah, yeah, like I say, I think they all those folks just missed that part the horrible part of Totalitarianism and authoritarianism, but Maybe we'll have one of these places. I this is what I don't think will ever happen at Facebook or metamucil whatever they're calling themselves today because you literally cannot throw him out Even if he went to jail for murder and never could get out you can't displace Zuckerberg at metamucil unless he wants to go he's always got 51% of controlling voting chairs by himself. He didn't even need his wife So not much you can do there But I think Twitter may get a free speech for free By Elon. We'll be back in a Are you grinding in the market but seeing little to no return or are you a successful trader simply looking to make your job a Little easier learn to take the path of least resistance with David White's powerful trading newsletter David White is an accomplished trader whose deep understanding of technology and the markets allows him to consistently find and share winning Trades support and resistance define the ranges in which stocks trade by understanding these trading ranges David White is able to find a path of least resistance David White's trading newsletter the path of least resistance is delivered daily Before the markets open to make every trading day an easy win Visit tfnn.com today and subscribe to David White's ultimate trading newsletter for $119 a month and try all of our newsletters risk-free with our 30-day money back guarantee Take the path of least resistance at tfnn educating investors What's separating you from the most successful men and women on Wall Street? That's right Information having all the information gives us the perspective We need to place the right trades at the right time The TAS profile scanner is the premier market profile base scanner powered by its acclaimed task proprietary algorithms This feature rich scanner instantly filters over 2,500 plus global financial markets such as stocks ETFs commodities futures and forex this powerful suite of tools Leverages instant trade filtering and strategy formulation to show you emerging trades Before they happen for a limited time you can save $100 off your first month by using the promo code upgrade And you still get a 30-day money back guarantee So you have nothing to risk Level the playing field with the TAS profile scanner which you can find under the services tab at tfnn.com Sign up today Sharpening your skills as an investor is like getting better at playing a musical instrument You have to practice sure, but you also need excellent instruction from experts at tfnn You'll get advice and guidance from the authority and technical market analysis And it's not just dry tedious text either Tfnn airs live financial content stream live on tfnn.com and Tfnn's YouTube channel with Tiger TV live every market day from 8 30 a.m To 4 p.m. Eastern for free each host is an experienced trader and gives their take on the market while taking calls and questions Live from around the world from the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds Tiger TV has eight different shows with Expert hosts to help you make the right moves with your money watch online at tfnn.com Or on tfnn's YouTube channel and become the investor you were born to be tfnn educating investors As one eight seven seven nine two seven six six four eight Internationally at seven two seven eight seven three seven six one eight As we return a little more on Tesla Last week as it went sideways and even a couple of days before that About one out of every three shares were shorted during the day. You don't know how many of those people covered That's from the FINRA data but you can see that As long as Probably the easiest rule is Tesla is not going lower as long as everybody's shorting And you had a little bit of a pullback out here. You don't have much in way of volume here but Friday was the first day that they got under 20 percent. So one in five shares were shorted And of course those folks probably were sitting on it all week long And it really just went sideways but One of the best patterns for Tesla is when it goes up on light volume and people quit shorting it you see like 12 or 13 percent maybe 14 percent Shorts for a handful of days that pretty much tells you the shorts have given up And the light volume tells you the buyers have waned and then you're ready for the next big ride on the Tesla Stock what would you call it Tesla? Eh Just the cult stock That's uh, I never thought I'd see one that lasted this long I still think it's worth about 40 or 80 bucks But uh, I do digress The question is when Does that last move start lower and everybody's in love with it? I know but uh Yeah, the price you're paying today. You're buying the next 30 years of growth already baked in I don't think any industrialized company Is worth that? Uh, it's really margins that are probably rather dubious But uh, hey everybody's got to have one of those kind of guys at the In history during when you live That is the pied piper 877-927-6648 The other question in here is starbucks as what's going on with this one It's got a lot of people in In the stock market really mad they were pretty happy when they thought that Schultz was coming back Not exactly sure why they weren't happy with the last guy But uh, he wouldn't have none of it Um, and of course, uh, they got Schultz back and I'm not too sure he didn't engineer this comeback Uh, but people forget why he was kicked out before and he was kicked out Although they were very nice about it And he was kicked out because he turned all the stores into hell holes Where you couldn't go into the bathroom because of the needles and uh And of course, uh, as the old the brother knew I wanted to say old saying go woke go broke Uh, he was on the vanguard of uh doing stupid stuff Uh, when uh, you are investing other people's money Uh, but he's back again and of course the first thing he does is say no dividend As I said last week for all those people buying stocks That have dividends If I am right on the market pulling back And I I think I'm 60 chance of being right maybe 40 chance of being wrong Maybe more But I I'd say at least uh the coin flip would fall on the side of weakness in the market through the rest of the year But uh, I do digress anyway on this just the idea cutting the dividend Uh, and some kind of veiled I would call it a threat veiled in new window that that money's all going to the bristas Uh at your local coffee shop. I'm not exactly sure how that works anyway But uh, if you've got stocks and you're counting on the dividend, uh, this is probably just the first of many Uh stocks over the next year year and a half that you're going to see cut dividends and why Uh, I'm trying to remember who it was. I think it was stocks and commodities Did a long-term survey of stocks Uh that people bought for dividends uh in lean times and uh They almost all had two things one the dividend was cut And the stock price went much lower and they lost a bunch of money Um, one of the worst long-term Uh plans is buying a stock Uh in a downturn because of dividends eight seven seven nine two seven six six four eight Uh I don't know what they're talking about here Uh SPR I saw a very interesting article about the strategic petroleum reserve this weekend They basically said that they weren't letting them put in roads so that they could get any of that oil out So maybe that's why we bounced right back up on oil today. I never believed much of it to begin with Uh to to path at tfnn.com. So hopefully that answers the beginning of the questions out here today Yeah, I think that's it. Uh, anyway, yeah, I think this is the Beginning of starbucks going lower Uh Okay, got a couple emails here. Anyway, we're up 25 points on the s&p cash dows up 66 nas x up, uh, 214 And uh, do you got more emails? Okay, I deserve the best Okay, that sounds good. And what did I want to get here? Oh, that's why I wanted to get a little history repeating On this day in 1994 19 years to the day after microsoft was formed mark andreason and jim clark created the mosaic communications corporation Which later will be renamed at netscape communications andreason had developed the mosaic web browser While working at the national center for supercomputing applications at the university of illinois I was in a computer club with mark andreason in 1990 there And uh, he was a pretty sharp cookie. I don't remember a whole lot about him The only good thing was that he gave me an introduction to jim clark, uh, who ran sgi and of course, this is just a couple of years after jim clark had After What was that movie that came out the dinosaur movie? I'll think about it Anyway, I'd been out and I got an introduction and did a couple of summer sabbaticals Uh out at sgi, but uh, yeah I met both gentlemen named in the above probably the most interesting thing as I wanted to build a product for the sgi Which is a digital disc recorder? jim clark at the time, uh, this has got to be Right around here. Maybe 1995 or six Wanted to do exactly what microsoft did which is licensed His operating system for other machines and sell the operating system Uh, but uh, the board would have nothing to do with it He set up yours and went to uh fund, uh, along with mark andreason at sgi and cashed in for about a third time at silicon Having fun trading the markets but having trouble finding like-minded individuals to discuss your trading and investment ideas with Become an apex predator in the trading markets and join the tiger's den trading room only at tfnn.com The tiger's den is an exclusive trading room where successful traders from around the world come to exchange trades and ideas Join the den and surround yourself with the sharpest minds in the trading world Subscribers to the tiger's den are also the first to have their questions answered live on air And can privately chat with our tfnn hosts live during their shows Interact with other tigers and tigers as they share trading ideas news analysis and discuss the market action all trading day Subscribe to the tiger's den risk-free with our 30-day money back guarantee and become part of the tfnn trading community educating investors You could be making money off the stock market and if you're already making money off the stock market You could be making a lot more Check out tfnn and tiger tv and get expert investing advice to give you the power to control your financial future Go to tfnn.com and find the newsletter for you Whether you're into trading gold metals futures currencies or options You'll get advice and analysis to help you seriously get ahead tfnn also features trading services with a 30-day money back guarantee for new subscribers As well as tfnn's tiger den trading room trading software and educational webinars for all trading levels And make sure you check out tiger tv for free on tfnn.com or tfnn's youtube channel for live financial content From 8 30 a.m. To 4 p.m. Eastern on market days stop watching on the sidelines while other people get rich and become the investor You were born to be tfnn educating investors tfnn is excited about our new software charting program the art of timing the trade charts In collaboration with tom o'brien and using his best-selling book the art of timing the trade your ultimate trading mastery system David white has programmed an outstanding piece of software that will complement any trader's methodology Using this first of its kind program the art of timing the trade charts allows you to scan thousands of stocks for Fibonacci formation setups including guardleaf abc's butterflies and much more The art of timing the trade charts is designed to help you when scouring the markets for stocks Just beginning to form the trading patterns that many investors spend days weeks or even months Surging to find and right now we're offering licenses available at only 79 dollars a month We are so confident that you're going to love this new charting software that will even give you a 30 day Unconditional money back guarantee don't miss out on this incredible new piece of software Yet your copy of the art of timing the trade charts today by visiting tfnn.com This segment is brought to you by think or swim for more information Just click the think or swim banner on the front page of tfnn.com We uh take a look at it. We'll go through the usual suspects that are actually holding uh the indexes up You got microsoft up on extremely light volume on friday. You did 27 million shares today. You're just doing 13 This is going up right against resistance. You had one Close below the three by three. Maybe you get a close above it up here The next close below it my guess is where this thing is really going to start showing some weakness Apple also Popping up a little bit higher It has a basic similar pattern for those people that have Listen to the show for a long time They know how much I love jordan aptly's double repo pattern that is 10 to 15 days above A Three by three displaced moving average a day or two Below at a day or two above it the next move below it is the one where the big destruction comes Uh, but you got one two three four five six seven eight nine ten eleven twelve On apple one close underneath it a light volume pop Which gives you a much better indication that you're going to get that double repo pattern And the double repo pattern is 10 to 15 days up Uh above a three by three displaced which is a little faster than the nine day Let's go ahead and show what the nine day looks like kind of the same thing But three by three just a little bit quicker to react. Anyway, you had uh friday still closed just a hair underneath it Now you're back above it, but uh again friday had 78 million shares 79 today. You have about 50 So you're probably going to be a little light even at apple Um So what else do we have out here? But a lot of these look similar in Lx we'll see how some of the dogs Uh that haven't been doing much are doing Uh and friday had 4.6 million shares with netflix today may get that Uh, you're going to need something in the neighborhood of five to six Probably more than six to get this thing uh to break above march 29th, but you've got that Uh to to what else? Uh amd bought uh the uh Company that's kind of big for them, uh in the uh server space And I think they only spent about two billion dollars It kind of interesting that they were I think at about 113 pre-market 112 something like that. Uh, they got um, what's the low out here today? 107 Uh and a little bit up off that but uh Not a lot of love in there Nvidia was doing better Again, let's take a look at this one. Um now they closed lower Uh on friday well actually thursday and friday than the trend higher Now you just kind of hit that today And closed back below it. I'd still like a close above This on Nvidia and then a close back below But we've got a lot of stocks that are in this pattern and why I'm fairly bearish out here Uh, and my scan, I don't know about one o'clock showed that, uh, there's a lot of stocks that could Again a day or two higher the next move back underneath that line generally Races back down to where it all started in this case for an invidia to be back down to 230 Again, probably better stocks to short than apple microsoft and Nvidia, but uh, they do not look good Uh to to okay. What else do we have here? You know, most of these things are just consolidating Even some of the ones that are the strongest The kind of the pattern you have here that's developed in kamiko Which is a couple of days of weakness, but light volume on it For ccj. You're down to three and a half million shares You almost into this candle from march 29th that had 7.3 million shares So I think maybe just a little bit more If you get down there with like two or three million, that's probably another good opportunity to take a stab at it gold Not exactly sure what's going on in it It certainly from the charts should have broken out last week. It did not it's up 12 bucks today But uh, it's exactly what I dislike Which is uh thursday and friday should have been able to close Significantly higher and move back up. This is actually a little bit of a danger zone Uh, and I would much rather pay a little bit more for gold Knowing that it isn't at this level here where it is Problematic, let me put it that way, but uh, you were up A little bit off the low on friday Um, I mean the chart looked fairly good And then nothing happened and that's uh, I'm always worried about the dog that doesn't bark if you get the Sherlock Holmes reference Okay, so we looked at that looked at that question about micron. It's up, uh, a little bit earlier a little bit stronger As I said, most of these stocks, uh, that I went through today at one o'clock were um a little higher Not much volume and look like they continue to find Uh, we as micron should be one of the strongest stocks out here today It is not and I think that's telling you something right there Uh Okay Did test the William Sonoma? WSM Well, you'd get right up to resistance again another stock with fairly light volume a couple of days ago You had 2.4 million shares. You're doing about 745 thousand shares Again, I think it the easiest thing to say is that you're going to go back and test the high volume lows that we saw Probably back on february 24th on a lot of these stocks Uh, and maybe you get the lower volume there and there I could make a bear a bull case But uh, there's so many of these stocks that need to come back and test it Uh, that just having microsoft and apple And maybe amazon up is not enough, which reminds me. I didn't look at amazon Same thing with amazon. You've got uh One two three four five six seven eight nine 10 11 12 13 You got two days below you got today up on light volume one and a half million shares Uh compared to three million shares on the downside on the 31st Um, if you do get another, uh closed below that three by three, which won't take much Over the next couple of days that would be a double repo pattern two and all of those double repo patterns Suggest that it goes right back to where the whole thing started in this case. That'd be about 2800 on uh amazon eight seven seven nine two seven six six four eight And see what else we have going on here Yeah, I got mail I got mail Man, how long does anybody even remember a well anymore? And it just seems like We'll be back in a minute. We'll look at the sm8 Are you in the market for buying or selling real estate in the bay area? Including the surrounding st. 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That's tfnn.com then hit watch tiger tv And we had somebody in the then bring this up. I probably haven't uh talked about it on air in a while I'm a big fan of the three by three displaced moving average And the idea behind the three-day move a displaced moving average is it gives you a little bit of An idea of where the market should be going if it follows its trajectory and gives you Numbers in advance Today of what you were looking for and there's a seven by five and a 25 by five that are pretty standard But generally what you do is you take three days so You take a three-day average and you put that three days into the future. So in this case 45 46 47 Right is going to be put out here. So you know that that three-day moving average is going to be 46 Three days ahead So that actually you don't have to have those So anyway, you put that three days So average three days you take that average and put it ahead three days, right? So this would be something like 44 45 and 46 for the average of those three days ahead and In the art of timing the trade charts, you'll see that this line goes forward into the right of today's date And if you go back out here and look you'll see There it is 7684 for the xle for tomorrow That's if we close here today So that would be for tuesday wednesday. It's 77 And Thursday it would be 76 83 but the whole point of this is to give you a ballistic curve of where this thing should be And when we went back to the other patterns where everything had been going straight up it is Three days or excuse me seven to 15 days sometimes even longer Above that line So just it's a straight parabolic move up a couple days below it A couple days maybe above it and then the next close below it is generally where the wheels fall off the wagon But that's called a displaced moving average This means you take a average mostly The one I use is three by three three days Put that average the last three days put that three days into the future And that's what that line is it's predicting the future out here. That's kind of sideways Oh because the whole point was that someone wanted to look at the xle and then we'll look at the smh's But Three by three is a good kind of short term trend line and it lets you know In advance what you're looking for Which is why I like it And it's short Then it doesn't get you too far off in the weeds if you're wrong Anyway going sideways here with the xle. I don't think there's much you can say about it. I'm not um Even with the SPR as I said, uh at the the beginning of the show I saw some fairly interesting were uh Interviews about how even though they were going to open it up They're not going to let anybody take the oil out And I think uh that word got around over the weekend. So we saw the pop back again And uh, you know, you can say you give an oil lease if you don't give the permits You still can't fully oil even if you give the permits if you don't let anybody drive a road in there So that they can get in there and get out of at the oil It doesn't matter. So you can play word games, but uh, there is a decided uh policy to make sure that we do not extend u.s. Development of a look of uh oil Uh production here in the united states and it hadn't changed on even if it's already been produced and it's in the ground Down in louisiana somewhere. They're not letting them build the roads either so I would say that you'd want to stay probably long energy and not surprised that it's up four bucks today after the Announcement that we were going to release a lot of oil that apparently we're not going to release uh eight seven seven nine two seven six six four eight, uh, we're gonna The other question was the smh's um You know, you're just back in kind of an inside day on friday for the smh's I don't think anything gets better as we talked last week There's still a lot of shortages in production, but probably the worst part of it is that wafer shortage They're saying that's going to continue throughout 2022 Or they think it will And I don't see how that makes the smh's any better If I wanted to go long or thought about going long, I'd want to at least retest the 250 gap we have When this gapped up on the 16th of march with 11 and a half million shares You really haven't had much since then you never really had a lot of follow-through You did have one day out here at a high with a kind of a doji that did Roll off. So i'm just thinking that this probably comes back to 250 it's not the end of the world for the smh's but It's not going higher either Okay Why we're in here was to take a look at More usual suspects like amat This one is kind of the pattern I was looking for in the smh's when you did gap up and you had some decent volume just a little under 10 million shares You got into that though with 10 million shares on friday And it didn't do much today. You got a half hearted bounce on about half the volume, but there's not much there Uh, we already looked at micron question about pltr. Did it finally break out of this downtrend? Yeah, it's kind of really Yeah, let's look at a little Sort of version you're really just coming up Uh to pretty severe resistance and this the previous high on february 1st at 1382 or no That one 1437 excuse me february 1st had 70 million shares You tried to get into that high again february 16th on 58 million shares Uh today you're doing about half that about 29 million shares So when i'm saying that the volume is light today, it is light now Do they try to just hold this thing up for a day or two for fun buying? Yeah, it could be And we're kind of pushing here a little bit now, but I don't think there's much out here And again the volume continues to be wimpy wimpy wimpy Uh Not hefty hefty hefty Okay question about ibb I mean it's slowly drifted up Again, you had about four million shares on the february 10th high that you're getting into today Uh, you got about uh, what 2.2 million shares now So There aren't a lot of people, but knocking down the doors to get into these just about everything Uh question about ung Quick look here keep them coming path at tfnn.com Yes, uh If if today was fun buying It would so they would be the last well You get the first three days of the month and the last two So you really had Monday, I mean friday being the first of those days you may have tomorrow Be back in a minute Sharpening your skills as an investor is like getting better at playing a musical instrument You have to practice sure, but you also need excellent instruction from experts at tfnn You'll get advice and guidance from the authority and technical market analysis And it's not just dry tedious text either tfnn airs live financial content streamed live on tfnn.com and tfnn's youtube channel with tiger tv Live every market day from 8 30 a.m. To 4 p.m. Eastern for free Each host is an experienced trader and gives their take on the market while taking calls and questions live from around the world From the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds tiger tv has eight different shows with expert hosts To help you make the right moves with your money watch online at tfnn.com or on tfnn's youtube channel And become the investor you were born to be tfnn educating investors You might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market You're going to need a crystal ball after all it's impossible to predict the future, right? 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That's 877-518-9190 Catch Tom O'Brien professional trader and educator founder of TFNN Also a special guest on CNBC Tom will bisect and dissect the markets The Tom O'Brien show next on TFNN As we return G7 and the Den points out also Some of these ETFs with light volume last time We're into this candle that popped up a gap up on 68 million shares On the 29th of March That had 68 million shares today were up on 32 So You know day's not over yet, but it doesn't look promising out here And I am taking time to add Two short positions mostly with puts today on some of the stuff that I like Okay, what else do we have out here? Take a quick look at one of the other ones, which is work day Yeah, that thanks John. That is also another one This one tried to go back through the March 3rd high. That was $250 That had 6.6 million shares back then tried to hit it with 2.3 million shares on March 29th Today you're up on a million shares. So yeah, when we look at these and especially Looking for any kind of clothes back below Um problematic at best So the bear case continues to get better the bull case weaker especially If this is fun buying we should be having just an absolute ton of volume come in. It's been pretty light. Okay Sally it wants to know what I think about the TLT Um I thought we probably should have had a great deal better bounce than we did Um In to fill these gaps down and we're not even getting much of that Uh, the fed at least is trying to take the sharp edges off of this market I think as it goes lower, but uh, and a whole lot of nothing today not a little under 10 million shares um At 23 and a half million shares on Friday So it is a light volume day. A lot of these candles are on the inside a lot of them are worse