 The following is a presentation of TFNN. The morning market kickoff with your host, Tommy O'Brien. Good Wednesday morning, everybody. It's Fed Day just after 9 a.m. Eastern time. We got a decision at 2 p.m. Eastern time today. We have a press conference to follow at 2.30. Right now you've got markets beginning in positive territory. S&P is positive by 34 points. That's about nine tenths percent. Pretty interesting how the percentages change, right? When you're trading at 3,700, 37 points becomes 1%. We were up at 4,800, you had to get to 48 points. We're now dealing with some pretty lofty percentages. You have the Nasdaq 100 right now, positive. By 1.2%, 11,482, you're up 137 points. And again, Nasdaq 100, you're up at 16,000, I think. You needed 160 points for a 1% move, now 137 points. As we've traded dramatically lower already in these markets, bear market for the S&Ps below that level for the Nasdaq. Dow off 219 at 30,574, you got the, excuse me, up, off. Used to negative prices. Dow is positive by seven tenths. The Russell positive by almost 1% right now. Bitcoin, Bitcoin's not catching the bounce. The markets are Bitcoin, negative by another 900 bucks. We almost got a 19,000 handle in Bitcoin. Missed it by $25 at early 530 this morning. You're back to 21,000. Got a couple articles pulled up on Bitcoin. Ethereum, you almost made it to a 900 handle on Ethereum prices. You're trading right now down $91 at 1112. I was chatting with my dad this morning mentioning, you know, that you back things up, right? Where are we folks? Right back to the highs when this thing's first went public, public when it first started trading on futures is probably a better way to say it. If you recall that high, yeah, and look at that. The back to December of 2017, when the futures started trading, it was the first time that you could short Bitcoin on a regulated exchange. Hindsight's always 2020, but quite an opportunity, man. This thing got shorted. It went from 20,000 to 3,000 over the course of 12 months. From there, you got a rise to 13,900. You pull all the way back to 4,200 in March of 2020 on the COVID lows and from there, the run began really accelerated towards the end of 2020. Point being, you're back to this price level, man. You break below here. I'm not sure you're next stop. You know, maybe you're sitting 13,900. Maybe you're up there. Yeah, I'm talking about 10,000 folks. It's a nice, easy round number. You make 20,000, think how quick we just went from 30 to 20. We can do the same thing right back to 10. And maybe, maybe that's an area that you find a little support. We chopped around there for a while. We were also double that area when you started trading on futures. But interesting, there's nothing in the way of this thing trading down from 20 to 10. If you look at where it accelerated for the better part of 2020, but we are at this area that when it started trading on futures and how about the opening print on the futures December of 2017, 20,650. The high print for that number, 20,650. If you just bought the opening print on the futures when Bitcoin started trading in December of 2017, it took you almost three years to see a positive price. And now you're right back to that price level. Crazy action in the cryptos to say the least. All right, we jump over to gold. There's a little bit of a different chart longer term, back to the short term. Gold, catching a little bit of a bid since the closing yesterday. Gold's up $20 at 1832. We got an emergency meeting going over at the ECB this morning. Interesting in the context of it being Fed Day as well. The ECB in action. So we got some action there. We'll be talking to our man, Teddy Kegstad at 40 past the hour. Great day to talk to him. When we got a Fed Day, we got an ECB meeting going on. We got some action in terms of rates, yields all across the globe this morning. Ten year, we're up 27 ticks off of the low. There's a full point off of where we were just yesterday. And you're talking about on yields, where are we back to right now? 3.38%. Think about that though. You got the 10 year at 3.38% and that's after we've risen a full point off of the lows. Just dramatic, dramatic yields in a big way. And I'm sure Chairman Powell will have a few questions having to do with that. Coming up at 2.30 on his press conference and we jumped to the VIX Volatility Index this morning trading at 32.26 right now. All right, let's jump around to the headline of the day and there it is. 75 basis point seems to be baked in. We'll be talking to our man, Kevin Hinks. After the first break, he was talking yesterday, saying maybe we'll get 50, Chairman Powell. He's been very deliberate about forecasting his moves, but this might be a game-changing moment. I was listening to Fast Market yesterday, they were having a discussion with Randy Frederick, who works, I'll get his exact title, but I think he's charging of derivatives at Charles Schwab, derivatives trading. And Randy did a program on TFNN a while back and Randy was making great points on the other side. I'm gonna ask Kevin about saying, this is a special circumstance. So special circumstances, call for special actions. The market seems pretty convinced. It's almost at about 100%, we get 75 basis points. I'd say the only risk is that do we get a point in terms of do we get that number? But you're talking about Goldman, JPMorgan, Barclays, they're citing at 75 basis points, city and Bank of America economists, among those who still think the Fed's gonna go to 50. So it's interesting to see, right? When you listen to that Fed tool, that it's at 75, it's nailed on 75. I mean, you can disagree with people at city and the people of Bank of America and the economists. You can disagree with Kevin Hanks, but there's a lot of smart people that are still saying it could be 50, folks. You at least have to assign the possibility that that happens. What happens in the market if we get 50 today after basically listening to talking heads for the last 24 hours, say 75 is coming at you. Fed tool saying 75 is coming at you. We find out at two and 230 today. It'll be an interesting one to say the least. All right, we jump from there to the ECB. So they hold an emergency meeting to address the market sell-off. Italian yields have surged about 4% this week. You have spreads widening, first the German yields. The meeting is set to take place at 11 a.m. Frankfurt time. Did that already take place? No, what time is that? Yeah, that's probably already taken place then, right? What time is this article out? Yeah, this article was out early, early. So 11 a.m. Frankfurt, what are they? Like six, seven hours ahead of us? What time is it in Frankfurt? Let's see, let's look it up. It is currently 3.13 p.m. Yeah, they're six hours ahead of us. But check out the spread. So Italy's 10-year yield climbs about 4% for the first time since 2014. That's the Italian yield. And you were just at starting this year off at 1%. Here's the crazy thing, folks. That's not that crazy even compared to the U.S. The U.S. began this year at 1.5%. We were at about half a percent last year. That's almost akin to Italy. Italy was about half a percent at the co... Nah, they weren't quite that low, I guess. Yeah, they were at about half a percent in the COVID lows. They came into this calendar year at what, 1%? We came into this calendar year at 1.5% and they've reached four while we've reached 3.5. I did see at some point, I think, a chart of the actual... Maybe this is it. Yeah, here is the spread. So the spread between Italy and Germany is now 2.5%. So that's an interesting one to see. You have the spread widening, Italy surging. We'll talk a little bit more about this when we get back, but they have a crisis tool after the Italian bond blowout. That's how Bloomberg puts it. But stay tuned, folks. We'll be coming back. We'll be talking to our man, Kevin Hinks. We'll get his take on the market action. It should be a great hour. Stay tuned. We'll be right back. At a time of booming inflation, we are purchasing powers eroded. There's no better place to protect your harder and money-thinning gold. This, the gold's flagship asset, is the Monk Todd Gold Project in the Northern Territory of Australia. This is Australia's largest undeveloped gold project. We are talking a world-class gold project in the Teowon Mining District. This is a large-scale, low-cost project with significant existing infrastructure and a politically safe and friendly mining jurisdiction. 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Your host, Kevin Hicks, Tom White, doing an outstanding job, bringing on guests, breaking down the day's market action, walking you through hypothetical trade setups, folks, talking about options. Every single trade they set up is defined risk in a market that has risk just about everywhere right now, especially on Fed Day. Kevin Hicks, good morning. Good morning, Tommy O'Brien. Yeah, it's a big day. Jerome Powell, welcome to the hot seat, right? I think this is gonna be an interesting day. And, you know, Tommy, I think we're gonna find out a lot about Jerome Powell today. I think we're gonna find out, remember, he's 69 years old, so he's probably a parent, probably a grandparent, right? We're gonna find out how he reacts to pressure from, you know, let's face it, a mob of traders and investment communities that want him to do more. You know why they want him to do more? Because he already gave them 50 basis points. And that's why they want more. And that's what this market always does, it always wants more. It wants more, it wants it faster, it wants it better. And I think Jerome Powell is the adult in the room here, Tommy, I think it's gonna be an interesting day. Yeah, it's pretty wild, man. When you put it that way, that it was already out there for 50. So if you know you're gonna get 50, it's human nature to want more. And they're kind of in a little conundrum. I was listening to one analyst, can't recall over the weekend, or maybe even earlier this week, just saying that it's a tough one, right? When, and this was before the odds had swung so dramatically and everybody was talking about so dramatically into the 75 camp, but just saying it's a tough spot when, you know, you go 75, your view is potentially even panicking or behind the eight ball, you go 50 and it might not be enough with the numbers we're getting, it's a tough spot, man. And he's gonna have some questions to answer, I imagine with where we go from there, yields pretty remarkable, but retail sales, what's your take on the sales number as we see a little bit of a miss to the downside for retail sales? He's gonna have some more questions to answer, I'm sure, about that number as well at 230. Yeah, here's what I think. I think Jerome Powell's biggest problem is he's looking down the barrel of a weakening US economy. I mean, one of the headlines this morning, B Riley downgrades eight semi-stocks on demand, destruction, risk. Does that sound like an environment where you wanna be raising interest rates at an accelerated rate? You got retail sales this morning that were a big miss in terms of retail sales. So, Jerome Powell's gotta be real careful here in how he squelches the market because you can think about this, Tommy. Everyone's got an opinion on the market, but at the end of the day, history is gonna put this on Jerome Powell. And if he misses, if he overdoes it on interest rates and the unemployment rate goes from 3.6 to 5.6, they're gonna blame him. And history's gonna blame Jerome Powell for this. What he's trying to do is allow this market to land gradually, even if it means inflation's around a little bit longer, even though everyone raves about the CPI a week or so ago. But the core came down, actually. It's just not coming down as fast as everyone would like it to, which it never does, by the way. It never moves as fast as you'd like it to. But I think this is gonna be a really interesting, today's data gave Jerome Powell more fuel to stay where he is, Tommy. Yeah, I mean, what the headline was falling 0.3%, up 0.1% if you take out auto and gas, but slower than what they were looking for, electronics, furniture and e-commerce, some of the headlines posting declines over there. It is a tough spot when you think about that I think consensus, and I'm not speaking for everybody, right? But it's pretty tough to say that they weren't late to the party when you have inflation where it is. So he's kind of in a defensive stance right now, which is a tough spot to be in, man, when you feel like there's a consensus that you're late, now can you go too fast if you go too fast? Kevin, what's your take on the impact that some of these hikes would have? Because I think it was Kathy, what was out there saying, you can't be hiking because that's not gonna solve things because we're dealing with inflationary inputs, like the war, just like supply chain issues still coming over from COVID, et cetera. Some of those external factors that the rates might not impact as much. It's like the cost of food going up, et cetera, some of that having to do with the war, et cetera. No matter how much the Fed hikes, there's a lot of factors right now outside of just interest rates that are causing some of these inflationary tendencies. Do you think about that at all? What's your take on that one? I think about it all the time. I think here's the problem. Trump has one tool and it's interest rates and working on the demand side. The U.S. administration has several tools. You saw the letter that President Biden put out to crude oil companies and energy companies this morning, but which is it? Which is the real message? Is it what he said during the election, trying to get elected about fossil fuels and wanting to ban them all? Or does he want more? How would you plan if you were the CEO of one of these energy companies? Energy, if you look at the CPI data or the data on inflation in general, the lion's share of it is energy. Now, there's inflation across the board, but the biggest numbers to outliers, the one that's making it the most outlandish is energy. What is everyone complaining about? Gas prices, right? That's what has to come down. If you do that, you'll get most of this beat, Tommy. I think there's several things that the administration can do that they aren't doing. There's only one thing Jerome Powell can do. Yeah, he's a little constrained, man. And that's what worries me a little bit, in terms of I think they gotta try to bring it, at least for the foreseeable future as in prices, they do have some type of an impact, but things like whether it's airfare numbers still through the roof, right? I don't think that if the Fed hikes that somehow we're booking less travel tomorrow. Yes, it is a factor in the economy. People have less money. They can borrow less money. That'll impact their buying goods and that should impact how much you're gonna spend on maybe airfare that's out of whack. But man, I can't wait to travel in still, Kevin. I feel like we've been out of COVID for a little bit. I know it's still around, but I've had the travel bug for a while and I feel like I'm gonna have it for a while longer, which is a good thing. So we'll see how that, I'm not sure that's a good thing for airline prices, but we'll find out. So with everything out there, the obvious of what you guys will be talking about a fast market at 12 o'clock, but do you go on over any individual equities this afternoon, Kevin? Yeah, we are looking at Kroger that has earnings coming out. We're looking at Harley-Davidson hog, and then we're looking at Snowflake. S-N-O-W is our third name today. So we're looking at three interesting names. We trade stocks and names. Today is a day you really wanna be watching not only the equities and the indices, but the 10-year yield already sharply lower than yesterday. You wanna be watching what the 10-year note is doing in the 30-year bond. You wanna be watching the US dollar and it's moving today. The word out of the EU about what they're doing. So there's a lot going on today. We're gonna stay with a grocery chain, a motorcycle company, and some cybersecurity, Tommy. Well, we look forward to the program, man, and you've talked about it before, Kevin. I got a chart up on the Thinkorswim platform on a weekly. That March 15th, March 14th meeting, you got quite a bit in the market as you actually came into that meeting after an acceleration lower. We'll find out if that's kinda action we get today, man. We appreciate the time as always, Kevin. Have a great one, and we'll be watching at 12 today. Have a great day, Tommy. You too, Kevin. Stay tuned, folks. We'll be right back for the open. If you wanna take advantage of this sector, now is the time to subscribe to my Gold Report. The Gold Report is a comprehensive look at the metal sector as well as the markets that move gold, which is the currency in bond markets. New subscribers get a 30-day money-back guarantee so you have nothing to lose. Every Monday morning, I publish the Gold Report with coverage of gold, silver, bonds, DXAU, HUI, GDX, as well as more than 30 different mining equities. 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In the Tiger's Den, you can look over the shoulders of Tom O'Brien and the other TFNN hosts while they analyze charts during their live Tiger TV programs and join an interactive trading community with hundreds of members exchanging ideas, interact with other tigers and tigers as they share trading ideas, news analysis, and discuss the market action all trading day, even at night and on the weekends. The Tiger's Den at Discord is accessible on mobile or tablets as well, so it's always at your reach. To sign up today and become a part of this educational community of traders, just visit the front page of TFNN.com. TFNN is excited about our new software charting program, The Art of Timing the Trade Charts. In collaboration with Tom O'Brien and using his best-selling book, The Art of Timing the Trade, Your Ultimate Trading Mastery System, David White has programmed an outstanding piece of software that will complement any trader's methodology. 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We have an S&P up about 38 points, trading up 1% right now at 37.79, jumping back to, as I finished up the conversation with Kevin Hicks, some great information there, folks. If you haven't checked out the program, Fast Market, TD Ameritrade, Think or Swim, they are a sponsor. They do an outstanding job, though I learned myself a tremendous amount from watching that program itself with the way they set up trades, the way they roll trades, trade management, defined risk in all of those. Right now, you get the S&Ps up 1%. So what I was talking about was, you go back to March 14th, 15th, okay? That is the meaning that they began hiking, and you see the relief rally, you could say that we got in that time. Now, that relief rally got us back to 4,600, folks, which is about 900 points above where we were trading at just at yesterday's low. Really remarkable. So it was nothing more than a relief rally, but something to consider as the market is usually ahead of the action, okay? So we have sold off about 10% in the last week, we'll just call it, ballpark. That could be pricing in whatever we get from the Fed this afternoon. Interesting to see how it plays out. The great part is we find out four and a half hours from right now with an announcement, is that it? Four and a half hours, yes. Four and a half hours exactly from right now is two o'clock, and then five hours from right now, we get that press conference at 2.30, and yeah, this one is an interesting one. I'd say it's one of the more volatile in terms of where we are, what's been happening. And this is kind of what I've been alluding to for a while as in we're really gonna start to find out whether things are going good or they're going unexpectedly over the next six months, okay? Because for the longest time, you could make the argument that inflation was ramping up towards the end of 2021. So when you were dealing with comps towards the beginning of 2022, that were still very difficult. That's why they said March probably gonna be the peak, right? But when we come into April, when we come into May, when we come into June, and especially the later parts of the year, that's when we're dealing with numbers. Last year, we were dealing with, I think a headline number of 5.5, maybe a core number of four, something like that. So that's why when you get the CPI number that we got last Friday, that CPI number from May, 2022 this year was going against a May 2021 number that had already risen by like 5% of the headline and I think 4% on the core. That's gonna be the case for the next three or four months and then things really ramp up at the end of 2021. October, November, December, January, things were really getting elevated. March was 8.6%, right? Well, this is when it's kind of time to put up a shut up as in for those saying inflation had peaked in March and I'm not being rude or crude as in it's really just a time though that either you're correct or incorrect and on the CPR number on Friday, we found out that many of those people had been incorrect, that inflation was gonna peak in March and then wane. That has not happened even on a core basis. So Chairman Powell, we find out but the market is down about 10% over the last week, folks. Repeat that, the market is down 10% over the last week. Keep that in mind as you sell doom and gloom into this Fed decision. Even in a market where 3500 is totally in play here. If you think it's not, you're crazy. 280 points below where we're trading at right now with the way this market's trading. We just traded off 400 points in the last four days. Of course, 3500 is in play. Of course, 3200 is in play which is the 618 in the entire move. My dad, he was doing a show yesterday and he was saying it's kind of crazy. That's not that far from where we are right now. And it's not. We just dropped that much in the last week, right? You just dropped in the last, now this goes back a couple of weeks, okay? But let's just put it on like a 20 day going back. 4200 we'll call it for easy math to 3700. You drop 500 points. You drop another 500 points from 3700 and you're at 3200. So, it's been quite a pullback. The NASDAQ 100, you take a look at this thing put it back on a weekly, okay? We're at the 50%. You're only 1,000 points away from where the 618 is of the entire move higher to 10,473. So, we'll see what happens. Let's jump over to a little Bitcoin. You talk a little crypto, Bitcoin. Yeah, that is a decisive break of an area of support, folks. And what's interesting is I hadn't gone back that far recently you put it on the weekly, right? That almost gets us back there, okay? Does that get us? Yes, that gets us back there. The five year weekly, okay? That is where futures opened as I talked about in the beginning of the program. I mean, look where we are. We're right at that level, man. You break that level? Where's the next stop on this chart? Easily, you're talking about 13,000 and I would say ballpark number 10,000, why not? So, we'll find out. Now, micro strategy, okay? Denies it received a margin call against its Bitcoin back loan. All I'll say here is that they've come out and said that 21,000 is where they would receive a margin call and they said on that same conference call, I believe, or statement that they have unburdened Bitcoin that they can then collateralize, but just be careful, folks, all right? Because you're dealing with balance sheets and margin calls and taking loans out to buy Bitcoin as it crashes. Yeah, you're well off the overnight low of 141 to 163. That's probably having to do maybe with that denial, but be careful on that one and be careful on Coinbase, too. Coinbase basically flat today, the market's higher, you're trading at 51. You don't know a company's gonna go BK until they go BK sometimes, folks. And you wanna talk about a devastation. I mean, there's nothing to say that Bitcoin can't go back to 10,000, okay? We're at 20,000 down from 70,000. Repeat that, we are at 20,000 down from 70,000. So be very careful here, getting into any of these areas. Yes, you can do it, but you gotta realize that if you're putting money in it to anything to have to do with this, that it's probably all risk capital at this point. And if that's something you're comfortable with, then more power to you. Okay, let's jump around to see what else I have going on. Yeah, Apple, how about two trillion? What happened to three trillion? Estimates for the quarterly earnings and revenue have dropped. They are to pull up Apple. Let's see how the Apple, the big dog's trading today. Apple shares up about eight tenths percent today. You're at 2.1 trillion right now, 2.16 to be exact. What's so amazing, folks. And we all learned something, round numbers matter, right? All the talk about a three trillion dollar company, all the talk about Apple hitting three trillion dollars, the three trillion dollar mark was 182 and change and they hit 182.94. They literally hit it for a day and they never hit that number again. Think they might've got there on January 3rd and then they actually closed about that number for the first time on January 4th. And just like that, we've given up $1 trillion in market cap in Apple, just absolutely wild. Let's jump over to the tenure right now, see how we're trading. You're getting some positive lift right now. We're up more than a full point from where you were trading at in terms of just yesterday, but we are seeing a little bit of a drop on the open. Yeah, no, we are not up a full point anymore. You got yields, the tenure back to 3.4%, 3.4% the yield on the tenure right now. We jump over to Crude in anticipation of talking to our man, Teddy Kegsack, coming up after the break. Quite a pullback on Crude. But boy, you put things in context, folks. We're sitting basically pretty healthily at 118.29 right now in that crude market. You pull up the daily, okay? That's an uptrend channel, folks. I don't know where you draw these lines. Maybe that thing got a little out of whack to the upside, but I was talking about earlier in the week in the program. That uptrend channel that we've been in since December, okay? Even if you don't incorporate the extreme volatility to the upside when the war first began, we're still in that channel, which is pretty remarkable. And all you've done in this pullback from 123 to 118 is just kind of traded toward the bottom part of that channel. Now, yeah, you could maybe drop that a little bit lower. Okay, where's the line? Is there a little linear regression there? Oh boy, crude, man, relatively strong. Stay tuned, folks. 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The funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors, distributor for side fund services, LLC. This program is brought to you by VistaGold, traded on the NYSE American and TSX under the symbol VGZ. Welcome back, folks. We have markets in positive territory, catching a little bit of a lift even on the open. You got the S&Ps right now up one and a quarter percent. We're up 46 points, trading at 37, 87. Let's jump over to our man, Teddy Kegstad. Folks, we talk to Teddy every Wednesday at 40 past the hour right here. You can reach Teddy every trading day at his website, forex-trading-unlocked.com. Teddy Kegstad, happy Fed Day, man. Yeah, happy Fed Day is right, and what a trading week it's been so far. Whew, I mean, how about 10% in the indices, Teddy, in the span of like less than a week? Just crazy volatility in those yields. We got the 10 year at 3.4% right now, I think, and that is off of the highs that we had yesterday, almost a little relief there, but 3.4%. Surprise ECB meeting going on today as if we didn't have enough on the plate. Where do you wanna start, man? We have some action at the end. We got some action in the Euro, the pound, and crude, holding up relatively well. Where do you wanna kick things off? Okay, well, we had the obviously a dollar index broke out to the upside two sessions ago and followed through yesterday. I think what you're seeing today right now, though, is the beginning of a bounce. They want now, obviously, there's a Fed Day and there's also this ECB thing. This could change a lot of things, but technically and fundamentally, from the way the market's been moving, I reverse yesterday. I actually, you know, I've been on the US dollar Swiss and US dollar Yen for a while, especially the Swiss also recently. I sold out of them yesterday after the markets closed and I actually reversed. So yes, Tommy, I am short the US dollar Yen right now. Nice, things changed. I mean, it's been some amazing moves, man. I have the US dollar Swiss up here, back to parity from 96 after being at parity on what, May 13th, is that right? Just that type of action. And yeah, the Yen, I was checking out the Yen early in the program on one of the breaks, getting ready for you. That thing just continued, even after we talked, a little bit of a, not consolidation, but not quite the move that it had off of 127, but we hit a new high today, just above the high yesterday, 135.56. So you'd be looking for a pullback in that number in the Yen as well? Well, here's what I'm looking for and we're gonna have a little divergence of the currencies right now. So not only did I get short those currencies, I got long the pound dollar, I got long the Aussie dollar, I got long the New Zealand dollar, I mean, I also got long the Euro US dollar. So now the Euro US dollar and the Swiss, US dollar Swiss right now are not act, they're kind of quiet because of the CCB meeting, okay? That is definitely putting a lag on them. They caught a nice low bounce off the lows yesterday. Now, the interesting thing is you had, for instance, the Euro US dollar did not make a new weekly low, okay? Over the past couple of sessions, the pound did, okay? So there's some, got a nice little bounce, okay? Australian dollar made a nice new low, sort of the New Zealand dollar, they're bouncing, okay? So right now I'm looking for just a corrective bounce, meaning the dollar index is Pierce New Highs, I'm looking for a little pullback in the dollar, okay? So now this is without taking the Fed meeting or the ECB into play. So right now I think that that's the trade that's going on right now technically, okay? Because the momentum is running out of gas right now, short term, okay? Now what Chairman Powell does today or not, I can't, I don't have a crystal ball on that one. I would hope that all this talking head nonsense is, you know, who was saying already a long time ago the Fed should do a three quarter point or a full point? I've been saying that over a year ago that they needed to do that. Now is not the time to start getting that aggressive because you have a Treasury Secretary that just finally admitted that, oh, they got it wrong. Inflation really is here and it probably isn't going away anytime soon. So how is the Fed going to react to that one, you know? So and I think if they really juice the interest rates, I mean, were they trying to break the system? You know, I mean, we already know that with the economic numbers that are coming out that you certainly get these lags, especially in sales. And if this hits like the car markets too, like if you raise the interest rates three quarters of a point, I mean, mortgages are slowing down, refinances are slowing down, car buying, even electric car buying is going to get, you know, it's going to have a noose around its neck. You know, so, and I think that these are things that the Fed, if the chairman, if he's not paying attention to this and doesn't address this today and actually follows the talking head speak, I mean, we're going to have some really volatile swings not to mention, you know what? It's going to be really hard on the stock market. You know, I mean, it's attack on the oil industry also, if they impose this nonsense about if they have more than 10% profits on the year, I mean, you're looking at an industry that struggled for a couple of years over the last year and a half because of presidential mandate, they're making money, you can't put a noose around their neck because that means any business at any time, they can come in and say, by the way, TFNN, you can only make 10% more than you did last year. The rest goes to us. Yeah, it's a tough one, man. That's not a good thing for the market. But anyhow, back to the Fed thing, I think the dollar is going to turn on this number today. Yeah, I mean, I saw something, I think the 30 year mortgage is up to like 6.28% and a ballpark in numbers, folks, but I saw something like a $450,000 house last year at 3% is basically akin to like a $320,000 house this year at 6% for the payment. Meanwhile, that $450,000 house last year is probably $550,000 or $600,000 or something bonkers if it's in Florida, it is mind with the real estate prices they're at, so all of them combined, it's pretty wild. And we have a 10 year yield that's at 3.4%. We're almost up 2 full percentage points from where we began the year and maybe this is where, you know, maybe, maybe. Yeah, I just mammoth moves. I know, I mean, do you remember the conversation, Teddy, and it was a decent conversation as in people weren't crazy saying, maybe we stop at 2.5 for a little while, right? Maybe we stop at 3% and the market just kind of digest this number and then the market becomes okay with 3% as we get three or six points. I mean, it just doesn't stop right now. So eventually it will stop though and maybe we've kind of, maybe we're inching closer to that point. Crude, what's your take on Crude? We had a little bit of negative action yesterday, but we've talked about it before, man. In context to where this market's been, five and $6 swings are almost the expected norm at this point, 118, 14 I have right now for the price of a barrel of sweet Crude. What's your action in the crude market? Just a little pullback. I think it's just literally just a little pullback. That's it. We keep on making higher move highs and higher move lows. So I think that no matter what, it's an edgy trade. Oil is not just shooting up to 150 overnight. I mean, there's nothing like that's going, but the trend is still edging higher. And especially as interest rates, I think that one of the things as interest rates, if they get a bounce here in the short term, I think that you can see oil probably stabilized for a little bit and maybe play with support, but I don't see it really breaking. And I think that once interest rates start to pound the lows again, oil is going to start to pound the highs again as well. Gotta love it, man. Now you've talked about it before, Teddy, was saying, people who are seeing those crude numbers, they see the volatility. If they're thinking about trading crude, currency-wise, how do you look at that market if you're thinking of trading crude, maybe in trading currencies, I know you talk about even maybe options in that market. For those that didn't catch that conversation the first time we had it, what do you look at when you kind of explained that previously, how you trade a market so volatile? I think that the US dollar yen, the pound dollar are two of the really best ones to use when it comes to trading the oil trade without using the oil futures. You can also use the euro as well. Excuse me. But I think that the pound and the yen are basically the best crosses when you want it. And also the Canadian dollar can be, but right now it's not. Because the Canadian dollar is this one big sloppy range trade. And just to bring it in full fruition, like the dollar yen as the US being a producer and the Japanese being consumers, that's where they really get hit there as that market explodes. It's a great conversation, man, as you're playing that stuff. And they're a big manufacturer too, so that's a huge thing too. Nice. Well, Teddy man, we appreciate you taking the time as always. It should be a wild day. I don't know where we're gonna be a week from now when we talk to you, man, but we appreciate the education. It's been very interesting today. So stay on the sidelines when we're not already in. Right? Seriously. Well, Teddy, have a great one, man. Have a great week, and we'll talk to you next Wednesday. Absolutely, see you next week, Tommy. Thank you. Okay, thanks, Teddy. We'll be right back. Skills as an investor is like getting better at playing a musical instrument. You have to practice, sure, but you also need excellent instruction from experts. 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You're getting a little bit of a lift as we open all things in context, folks. You look at this run that we've had just from last Thursday. Let me take a couple of Fibonacci's offer here just for some clarity. That's just the run that we had and that's kicking things off Thursday morning. Okay, yeah, the S&P is trading at about 41.50, a hair under that price level. You trade down to 37.08, almost 450 points. I almost had to check my math there real quick. A 382 bounce, folks, is still almost 90 points above where we're at right now. So be careful of those relief alleys in this market. I imagine it's gonna be a very volatile day to say the least. NASDAQ 100, let's see where that's done, where that is in terms of that pullback that we had from Thursday's action. 12,700, come on, connect, there we go. And you were talking about, let me take that one off for you. Yeah, you're talking about 11,800, saw 300 points above where you're trading at right now before you were even at that 382. And that's just from the run from Thursday, folks, of the pullback. Dow right now, up 1.1%, NASDAQ 100, up 1.4, S&Ps up 1.2, Bitcoin, 21,500, you're 1500 bucks off the lows that we made at 515 this morning. But be careful in that market, folks. I was reading today that tether, it's that tether is like untethering from the dollar. Yet again, I'm trying to see if I could find that graph real quick, but not good in terms of what could exacerbate this economy, a full crypto collapse. It's already been trillions. And we'll see where it goes from there, but be careful. It'll be an interesting day to say the least. 2 p.m. is the announcement. 2.30 is the press conference. And he's got a lot of questions. I imagine he'll get, folks. We get the market trading at 37.91, but pullback 10% just in the last week. And we'll finish it up with a take a look at the bonds. As the market's sitting about a full point from where we were yesterday, you come into the Fed meeting with a yield of about 3.4%. 3.4% yield on the 10 year. We were sitting at 1.5% to kick off the year. Quite a pullback. All right, folks. Thanks so much for starting your trading day with me. We got a treat, our man Basil Chapman. He's back live coming up right now at 10 o'clock. We got Larry live at 11, fast market at 12. You heard it. We're talking about Kroger, among a couple of other equities during the hour, along with some Fed conversation, I'm sure, as well. Our man Steve Rhodes live at 1 o'clock. Dave White with the power trading hour. He'll be live during 2 o'clock. That'll be an interesting hour. And then Tom O'Brien might have wraps up live from 3.0 to 4. Stay tuned, folks. Have a great Wednesday.