 Week 14 was one of those weeks that really showed the value of tight games because we had a lot of games in week 14 where things were not so tight and that wound up leading to a lot of rough stuff across the board for running backs on those games on both sides for usages and a lot more. We're going to go through what that means going forward. We can learn from those games, but we can't learn from those games and recap injuries, role changes and more that we saw on week number 14. Welcome on into the Heat Check Fantasy podcast with the power by Number Fire. That's right here on the FanDuel Podcast Network and NumberFire.com. My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a senior writer and analyst for NumberFire.com. Joined here as always by Brandon Gadoula. He is the managing editor of NumberFire.com. Brandon, my voice sounds terrible, so I'm going to let you talk. How are you doing today? Well, my plan was to throw it back to you because you were out in Arizona for FanDuel FanFest, the WFFC. I was going to ask you about your experience, but maybe it's just past that. We can. I just feel bad punishing the good listeners with my hideous voice right now. How about this? How about we just plan for a hyper-efficient week where you have no offhand comments, no color, it's just all stats and takeaways? I don't like the idea of not interrupting you, so I'm going to go ahead and reject that proposal if that's okay with you. But it's fun. It was a good weekend. We had Saturday was FanDuel FanFest in Scottsdale. They had Zachary Levi was there. It was pretty cool. Got to meet Chuck. Kurt Warner was there. They were putting the new movie that they did about Kurt Warner's career. Edger and James, Anquan Bolden, Mikhail Bridges. Got to talk to him, Frank Kaminsky, as a guy from the Midwest. My brother-in-law went to Wisconsin, so I was pretty excited about that. It was a fun experience. That was all fun. I was excited on Sunday, though, because Wayne Crabette qualified for the WFFC. I don't think he was there, but he qualified for it. I was like, oh, man, I grew up a jet stand. I might get to meet Wayne Crabette. This is awesome. Didn't meet him, but I was pretty excited to potentially meet him anyway. Sunday was Wake Up, Watch Formula One Race. I got to bet Formula One for the first time in my entire life. It was awesome. That was good. I heard it had a wild ending. Yeah, it was pretty crazy. I bet Max Verstappen to be Lewis Hamilton, but I like Lewis Hamilton more. But then you watch the national anthems after, and Max Verstappen sobbing. His dad is sobbing. The Red Bull Racing guy is sobbing. I'm like, okay, this is kind of fun. I can live with this now. So that was fun. Got to watch that. And then filled out lineups, went to the WFFC, did that for a long time. Had a lot of fun. There was an amazing sweat. At one point with, I don't know, like a quarter left, we thought there were three people who could win. And then all of a sudden those three people all dropped down and seven new people popped up because the San Francisco Cincinnati game went over time and the Bucks Bills game went over time. And it just totally changed everything. There were a bunch of people who could have won it. Ataros wound up winning half a million dollars to first place. And it was really fun to be there. Watch that atmosphere, the people celebrating and stuff like that. There were a bunch of dudes in the corner chanting, like, let's go, Renfro. Every time Hunter Renfro make a catch. And then they eventually transitioned to let's go, Lenny. You tell who they had basically based on what they were chanting. It was awesome. A lot of fun. We did Korean barbecue after and I like had never had Korean barbecue before. And like, it sneaks up on you how much you just ate. I didn't really realize. So I look at this one, I was like, huh, might have overdone it. Very possible. I went too far in this, but it was fun. It was great. It was a grand old time. So now I fly back today to sunny Syracuse and say goodbye to Scottsdale. It was fun. It was really cold here though. Also, we saw Nelly. I forgot about that Saturday night. That happened too. Yeah. I mean, I sat in my house and watched Red Zone. So I don't really have much of a story. I watched Red Zone. Be proud of me on. But the problem is. So I watched Red Zone, but I kept my primary focus on like the individual games because I do still like watching that more. It's too scatterbrained to watch Red Zone. So like, I liked having the individual TVs up too. So I could like go back and forth. So I think the optimal way to watch football is if you have like multi screens and you have every individual game. Exactly. I'm not here to argue that. But as opposed to watching like just the national games and flipping back versus Red Zone, Red Zone definitely takes preference there. It did make me want to go to like a sports bar though to watch games in the future. Like having all this. I was actually going to make a joke because you're always up in Syracuse. You're getting every Buffalo Bills game. Yeah. And this week you would have gotten a good one. But you're actually. Yeah. Although you did. You were in Seattle for that. That nice Seattle Green Bay game a few weeks ago. So. Oh, God. Hey, you won one. You lost one, I guess. I mean, can that really be a loss when I had Russell Wilson and Tyler Lockett and DK Beck half in that game? Definitely not. Could not be. We're going to go through those close games and those non-close games and what that means for DFS. And just in second, but first sports fans. Fandals offering an exclusive promotion for new sportsbook users. Join Fandals Sportsbook today and make your first bet. If you lose, they'll give you a refund of $1,000. I credit within 72 hours. Your first bet after depositing will qualify. If you have multiple selections on one bet slip, be the first selection you made head over to the Fandals Sportsbook today. If they place your first bet must be 21 plus and present in Arizona, Colorado, Connecticut, Iowa, Illinois, Michigan, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, or West Virginia. Max bonus $1,000 in site credits. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fandall.com. A gambling problem called 100 gambler is a fandall.com slash rg in Connecticut call 888-789-7777 or the ccpg.org slash chat in Indiana 109 with it. For confidential help in Michigan 1802-707-107 in Tennessee call the red line at 1-800-899-789 in West Virginia 1-800-gambler.net in Arizona 1-800 next step or text next step to 533-42 week 14 headlines. I think the key thing here, even above the Lamar injury is close games because we had a couple of close games to close out this late between the bills and bucks and then also the Bengals and the 49ers. But early on it was a lot of bloods. That led to alterations in the usages of Patrick Mahomes, Tyree Kill, Clyde Edwards-Elair, Josh Jacobs, Ezekiel Elliott, Antonio Gibson. All these guys saw their workload shift due to blowouts and this is something we talk about a lot, the value of close games. And I think Sunday might have been the best example of that we've gotten a very long time. Yeah, I think that that's absolutely correct in looking at the optimal lineup this week. I know we had overtime games, but we had Josh Allen at quarterback. We had Jamar Chase, George Kittle in that game. The Seattle game actually was close for a while. Tyler Lockett made it unsurprisingly after his big day. Kind of in Rashad Penny as well. Yeah. But yeah, that definitely speaks to, boy, I'm just sorry, looking at this. Allen we liked, obviously. I was talking about Tyler Lockett in the Seattle off-passing defense, Jamar Chase, George Kittle we liked. Although I was talking to someone and he listened to our show and he was like, oh, so whichever one Jim likes this week, use the other one between Jamar Chase and Teagan. I was like, yeah, that's probably right. That sounds about correct. Yeah, that sounds fair. But yeah, and sorry, I just got kind of sidetracked looking at the optimal. A lot of plays that, a lot of plays I liked, but I did not have a particularly good week that I got, I was just thrown off by the running backs this week. It did not have a good week, but a lot of that, like you said, came down to blowouts. A lot of, I'll just call it hate for Ezekiel Elliott. He did not play most of the second half. We'll touch on this in a little bit more detail, but you know, once that game got close again, because Daxter picked six and that game just like was strange. He came back in. So that would just leave me to believe that if it were closer, he would have been playing. I think he was still a good process play with the snap rate. But yes, absolutely. The value of tight games matters. And that's why you would, you know, you and I, I think the best example is quarterbacks who are big favorites or big underdogs. There's kind of a theory that big underdog quarterbacks will get a lot of pass volume. That's really been proven to be not necessarily reliable. And then as far as quarterbacks who are playing from ahead, I was big on patch with my homes this week. He just had such muted volume and that really affected the chiefs and actually was tilting this as well. Such a big day from the chief's offense, but Terry kill Travis Kelsey kept it for targets. It was like a Denver Broncos game. I looked it up. There were eight games this year, like team games where a team's max pass catcher had four targets or fewer. The Broncos did it twice. The Patriots did it twice once in the win game of week 13. But the chiefs are on that list. And it's like, so, you know, a lot of good calls. Some bad calls that didn't pan out, but I think the bad calls mostly, and this is not like taking, you know, making an excuse, but the blowouts really de-wrote a lot of the plays that I had been on most. And I think that the close games were the mistake erasers this week because I had my two highest exposure players where Antonio Gibson and Zeke Elliott, because of the other backs in their backfills being out. And I still had a fine week because Josh Allen, Tom Brady, those guys were able to come through with such big games. So I think that we talk about mistake erasers, you know, guys who can make up for dumb stuff or just variants that you have elsewhere in your lineup. And to the most part, those tend to come from closer games just because like it's back and forth, you can get overtime. Like you mentioned the caveat of overtime, like overtime's within the range of outcomes for a close game. So I think that's kind of the key to me is re-emphasizing that like, okay, what we're doing here is not totally stupid. We want competitive games. We want these things to be going deep. We want the ability to have overtime, stuff like that. And obviously, like if a team blows a team out, it's not always going to be like the cheese. Like that's that they just happen to be everything broke in their direction, but even like the Cowboys game, like because Zeke was kind of banged up, he just didn't come back in, you know, until the very end of that game. And I think that that, that again is something that can happen. So just re-emphasizing that's why we talk about game stacks the beginning of the podcast on Thursdays is because we want to get those close games. We build our own game stacks. We want to identify those because there, there is big upside in doing that. Anything you want to add there before we move on injuries? No, I don't want to, I don't want to like harp on it, but that's a big part of our process for a reason. All right. So let's talk to you about Lamar Jackson going down with an ankle injury at the start of the second quarter. Ravens were down 10-nothing at the time. Tyler Huntley came on and honestly, like he wasn't terrible. He was a 0.04 passing at expected points per dropback. He missed some open throws, which is kind of disappointing, but like, if you look at that game combined with the Chicago game or just overall this year, Huntley is a negative 0.05 passing at expected points per dropback on the season. Again, league average around 0.11 or 0.10, probably by this point given what, what happened in week number 14. Week 14 specifically, nine targets to Mark Andrews from Tyler Huntley, seven to Marquise Brown and Rashad Bateman, Bateman Brown and Sandy Watkins had two downfield targets from Huntley. Andrews had one. So obviously it's a downgrade to go from Lamar Jackson to Tyler Huntley. And we're expecting or at least I would expect Lamar to miss some time here at this injury. So how does this impact your view of the past catchers? Also, I want to put Devonte Freeman there too because I used him at times on Sunday. And I think he's at least worth discussing here too. Yeah. So Freeman, just because we threw him in there, 67% snap rate after we talked up is 68% snap rate last week that was a, the 68% was a running back high for the Ravens. So basically matching that it's still a really good role for him. And as far as this offense overall with Huntley, I was trying to pull up their pace in these two combined games, but they were pretty fast in week 14. I know that they were trailing, but they were fast in week 11 as well. That's kind of, that was one of the surprises that I remember from week 11 was that they really ran up tempo, even with Tyler Huntley. And if you give me a quarterback who, yes, not a great showing back in week 11, but a much more promising week this week in relief, partially could be due to the fact that he came in in relief and the Browns weren't really game planning for him. But if he's going to feature Mark Andrews, Mark East Brown, Rashad Bateman, and this team is going to feature Devonte Freeman, that's very, very helpful. Mark Andrews had a really big game. Mark East Brown always has that potential. Tyler Huntley could have hit him for a big touchdown as well, just overthrew him. I mean, not, it wasn't like fingertips, but there's an overthrow, but it wasn't egregious. And then for Rashad Bateman is going to have an increased role and get some downfield work. It was his first 100 yard game of the season. Like I'm not going to write, I'm not going to write these guys off if they're entering a good game. And they might have one next week with the Packers. So that could be kind of interesting. It's also worth noting we talked about Bateman last week with the role change. He reverted back to his previous role. He ran around on 33 or 46 drop back. So back to being a starter again. I don't know what happened last week. It was really weird, but he played well. And I think that like the door to keep Rashad Bateman out of the Ravens offense has been shut. He kicked the door open. I don't know, whatever. Anyway, he's going to keep playing a lot because he's good. I watched that game and I was just so mad that like, because I hadn't used it in DFS recently, but like I was like in season long, whatever. Have an extra minute in the season long league as well. Why couldn't this happen earlier, man? Come on, let's open the floodgates earlier. But I think that that's worth noting. Like Huntley is competent and a competent quarterback with concentrated usages can be enough. So I think, because like Huntley was amazing in college and like he's been the backup for the Ravens for a reason. So I don't know. I mean, I don't want, I don't want like Teddy, Teddy Bridgewater to catch strays or anything here, but like I'm not saying that I expect more from Tyler Huntley than from Teddy Bridgewater efficiency wise, but I can't use that. I can't use Denver because of the way that they operate. Yeah. I'm the way that they share the ball. So like this is at least better than that. And I think, I think that we'll probably wind up talking about that Baltimore game. Although the total is pretty low on Thursday and a little bit more detail. And what is it at? Because it wasn't open when I checked last night. Well, I see it from number fireside of 42. I don't know if it's currently up or 42 and a half. 42 and a half. Sorry. I don't know if it's currently up on Randall's portable. Yeah. It is 42 and a half. Okay. By six and a half on the road. Okay. So they're applied totals very low, but still I wouldn't be shocked if they were to go over their, their total, their team total for that one. We'll see though. Austin Eckler got taped up in the third quarter for the chargers. They play Thursday against the cheese, which is why I think this is pretty noteworthy because it didn't seem serious, but like he didn't go back in. They were ahead. So it's possible it could have been a Zeke thing. We're like, Hey, they're up. You know, who cares? But after Eckler left, the chargers ran 22 plays. Joshua Kelly had 13 snaps. Justin Jackson played the other nine. Kelly had seven carries. Two of those were in the red zone. Jackson had five carries. Three of those were in the red zone. So I think there's a decent chance that Eckler can't go on Thursday. If he can't go, how would you view this backfield in that one? I think I lean Kelly just because he played more snaps. I would assume that Jackson would have a better receiving role overall. But the fact that he that Kelly plays more snaps. I mean, again, it was a small sample size overall. But I think it's more, it's very likely a 50-50 split. I'm kind of glad it's not on the main slate. So I don't have to try to assume. Of course, Eckler could be back because it's your Thursday show though. You're going to get to talk about it in depth there. No, people will just ask me about Sunday starts it. Yeah. But no, I mean, I really think that it'll be a, it's a spot where if this were on the main slate and let's say Eckler's out, I don't think I would know enough to want to chase it. So that's kind of adding context into how I'm viewing the backfield. Yeah. I think that it's going to be split with the high leverage stuff. And I think that that's where things really get dicey. So they're playing the chiefs. I think, I think they can win that. I know they're three point dogs. I already bet them though. Like, I think they can win that game. It's kind of weird to me that they're three point dogs. I don't know. It's just because like I have my numbers, like the charges a lot and it's really detrimental at times. They're like the AFC Vikings, but I think that it's going to be pretty split up there. I think that what it also does is Justin Jackson's a good pass catch, but he's not going to command the same target shares. He's going to open up some more targets for Keenan Allen. He's cleared from Mike Williams. Stuff like that, maybe not a ton, but like it could do something there. So committee likely there. And sorry, I know I'm making a lot of faces, but I pulled up totals and spreads for next week. And we were talking about how it's to start the week, or to start this, this recap show. We might have to talk about it again on Thursday. Cause I see six of the 11 main slate games. Is the Carolina Buffalo game still a 10 and a half? Or is it 11 and a half now? I guess Josh Allen might, Josh Allen is turf. Maybe that's why they're cranking it down anyway. Yeah, that one's just seven of the 11 or have spreads of at least six and a half right now. That's not too bad. Fun slate. Cream hot exited with an ankle injury in the first quarter for the Browns. Nick Chub wound up in in like kind of a juiced up version of his usual role. 66% snap rate. He's usually around 50 or so. 17 carries four targets. Four targets. Very nice for Nick Chub. A very positive game script. Chub also had 42% of their seven red zone chances, which is something he can run into at times as well. So if cream hunt misses, how much do we alter our view of Nick Chub and DFS? So sounds like you're a little bit more optimistic than Yeah, four targets, man. That's pretty sick for you. Well, you said Nick Chub is usually around 50%. He was at 49% week 12, 58%, 59%, 55%. So I didn't see it as much of a big increase. I saw it more as like 10 percentage points. Pretty big. But his average wasn't 50%. It was okay. So yeah. All right. Yeah. 10 points up to 65%. If he's going to play 65% of the snaps. That is like not enough for me for most running backs. And then I got to play the Nick Chub game of being worried that I'm going to miss out on an extremely efficient rushing game from Nick Chub. I don't like to do that. Are they on Sunday? We got Saturday games. Yeah, we got Saturday games thrown in. It's too early for this. So I'd have to, I'll pull up the Saturday slate at least, but. So like to me, if he's going to get passing game work, which he did, he got four targets, potentially because in Joku and Bryant were out. That's, that could change this week. Also our Donovan People's Jones Jail and Guyton Bet was not terrible. Guyton at 87 in the touchdown, DPJ had 90. So you won. But like they both had decent days. So that was less embarrassing than it should have been. Pretty sure Guyton was in the Sunday million winning lineup as well. Yeah. I mean, there were people who were tracking at the WFSE who had them. They did well. So it was actually a good bet. But like if you give, so Chub is someone who has massive upside with a bad role. If you give him a better role, he, he still has a massive upside, but his floor increases like the odds he busts decreases. I think that matters a lot. The floor increases, but I kind of view this as it sounds like you're viewing it as a much bigger plus without I think it's a boost, but I don't think it's like, oh, Nick Chub is played more than 55% of the snaps in one, two, three, four, five games this year in those games, 65 yards Sunday. But the other games, 144, 163, 69 and 170 yards in scrimmage. That's like, okay. So Jonathan Taylor's role changed. But like before his role really, really juiced up, that's kind of what he was doing. And like that's, that's a good role for daily fantasy when it's a hyper efficient player. So I think that's why I'm higher is I know what he can do on a bad role. If you give him a better role, that's pretty sweet. So if I were to like, if he were on the main slate, because it's different if he's on Saturday, like hypothetically main slate to give you an idea of where I'm at from a sour perspective, I would say $8,200 is where his role would be if there were no cream on it. Okay. Honestly, these salaries don't look that different as if they would be on the main slate, but he, his salary is 8,000 for Saturday. I think that's, I think that's justifiable if this game were on the main slate, I think 8,000 justifiable. But what I'm saying is there's always like that Nick Chub tax you have to pay. Yeah. And I personally don't think I would really build around him at 8,000, even if he were on the main slate. And we knew for sure, cream hunt was out. I would consider it, depending on the rest of the running backs, because like that's a, that's a good situation. And like there's still passive failure, like that's very true, but the past upside become more plentiful if there's no cream hunt. Washington lost Terry McLaurin and Taylor Heinecke in the second half against Dallas. Kyle Allen came in and also struggled potentially because there was no McLaurin. He averaged negative point one nine passing that expected points per dropback. Heinecke was at negative point seven eight. What do you left? Boy, Adam Humphries led the team in targets followed by DeAndre Carter and Cain Sims with a nice touchdown catch. Ricky Seales Jones ran a dropback or ran a route on 16 to 39 dropbacks. There we go. I did that all the time. Yeah. So RSJ is off the map. And that I kind of thought that might happen given how run centric they've been given that John Bates has been, he's a rookie, you know, been playing okay from a blocking perspective. I thought this could happen. RSJ just, you know, just don't use him. But like the rest of the guys, I also don't really want to use them because if McLaurin and Heinecke this time, I kind of feel like it just sinks the entire offense. Are you kind of thinking the same thing here? Yeah, I don't think that I would want to go with any football teamer. That includes Antonio Gibson. If this offense is that bad at a certain point, like, yeah, let's say Antonio Gibson, Jamie, because it's still out, but there's no Terry McQuarran and we can try to project Antonio Gibson for a heavy volume bump out of the backfield in terms of his targets. If that's tied to a team with an applied team total of like, are they, okay, 19.75. They're facing Philly, which is kind of inflighting that, I think, because the defense is not great. It's not terrible, but not great for Philly. Yeah. So I mean, that's not really a spot that I'm going to target. I guess the only maybe positive as you say, Philly doesn't try to run on Washington, who's a little bit better against, well, much better against the run, because they're not good against the pass. But I don't see that happening. So, you know, this is one of those spots. It's almost like the Jets this week. Very, very different matchup, but there were some ostensible value with the Jets just because of how depleted they were. And it didn't come to fruition. Some fake value. Yeah. I think that could be the case. And I think, like, if you were to give me Heinecke back, if you were to give me McClurrin back, then, you know, we consider guys, but like, Janie McKessick will probably be back too, which hurts Gibson. It doesn't rule him out, but like there are factors that work against him as well. So I think this offense is kind of at the tipping point from that perspective. Let's talk about the bills. Oh, quickly. Give me a salary on Antonio Gibson. Let's say McClurrin, Heinecke and McKessick all play, and it's a good, you know, inferior matchup against the Eagles. Where are you with him? 7,000? 7,000? Yeah. It's 6,900. I think that's about right. Yeah, I'd agree that. Is that where you'd have been too? Yeah. I think that's about right. I just want to make sure we kind of hit the gauge of how far he fell for us. Yeah, it was mostly, it's mostly McKessick being back more than what happened on Sunday. Like he fumbled and they kind of benched him for that a little bit, but like, it was just a weird game. It's hard to put a lot of stock in games that are that lopsided, which we'll talk about with Zeke later on. Emmanuel Sanders exited in the second half for the Bills. Big usage here for Cole Beasley and Gabriel Davis. Beasley had 11 targets. Davis had eight. Dawson Knox also had nine. Beasley had that was 3.3. Davis's was 7.1. Davis had three red zone targets for the second straight game. So he was playing a lot early on him. Did my eyes this evening or was he playing a lot early on? Gabe Davis. That I don't know. I think he was playing a lot early. I thought I saw him out there quite a bit because we had talked on Thursday about how that was why it wasn't on Manny was because I thought there was a chance that Gabe Davis took over as being like a every down type receiver. Kind of think it happened. So when looking at this Bills team, digs is the clear one. Knox is number two. I didn't use any Beasley or Sanders this week, despite the fact that I had stacks across out the butt of this game. I would be willing to include Gabriel Davis in situations right in on the Buffalo Bills offense. Would you do the same? Yeah, he had an 84% snap rate, which was actually higher than Cole Beasley at 81%. To speak, try to speak to early down or early half first, sorry, first half for the game. It's got all populated. Davis had three first half targets same as Cole Beasley. Digs and Devon Singletary had four. Dawson Knox also had three. So he was definitely involved in the first half. I don't know exactly when Manny was hurt, but is a quick test. He wasn't coming on just late. Yeah, because Manny played 30% of the snaps, which means he was in there for a decent amount of time before he left. So I think that's a pretty promising role for Davis who had, as you mentioned, the three red zone targets, but also two end zone targets. Those are money. I think there's always a little bit of like that chief survive with this team when they get into red zone, minus the running backs that the chiefs also kind of give the ball to. But, you know, with Manny out ostensibly, presumably this is the more appropriate word there, but I think that's good for Davis and good enough where I would definitely consider him. How low would this, like, we're talking about from a salary perspective. I think he's like a 53-ish type player, if I had to guess, but at 53 I'd be willing to use. Yeah, I was going to say 55 within this line. So that's appealing. It's not the greatest matchup against the Panthers. They're ended at 10.5 point favorites at home. We talked about the value close games and I'm going to talk myself into a lot of Gabriel Davis, but I think that like I said, we got five out of 11 games have a spread of at least eight points and seven of the 11 on the insulator, at least six and a half. That's the good thing is they can't run. So it doesn't matter. High efficiency situation, which is good for lower salary receivers. So I had ordered home, you know, although I guess eight out wasn't high this week, but 7.7 is better than Beasley. At least better than Beasley is not a borrow on a set or a dot comparisons anymore. One thing I want to note without digging into is that Aaron Rodgers said after Sunday night football that his toe suffered a setback during the game. He could get surgery, but it's my understanding that like he could still potentially play if he gets surgery like the week after. So keep an eye on it. We've seen how big of a downgrade it is to not have Rodgers, but keep that in mind with that Packers team throughout this week. Let's move into role changes here. We'll talk about more Packers in just a second. Let's start things off with Thursday night football with no Adam Thielen. The Vikings just gave everything to Dalvin Cook and Justin Jefferson. Cook had 27 carries and three targets, 222 scrimmage yards, two touchdowns, 79% snap rate, what shoulder? What shoulder? Justin Jefferson had 15 targets. That's a 48% target share. He had six of eight downfield targets. He had four out of six in the red zone. He had all five end zone targets. KJ Osborn had nine targets with two downfield 29% target share. Nobody else more than three. The Vikings play Monday next week. So not in the main slate, but Thielen's got a high ankle sprain, could keep missing time. I mean like how high is too high on these Vikings guys right now? There really isn't. I don't think a number. The workload for Dalvin Cook, you really can't get a whole lot better. Then 33 adjusted opportunities with a running back who is generally efficient. You don't really have to say a whole lot more than that and he gets the red zone work. Jefferson, so long as he can keep his cool with Kirk Cousins missing him often, because I feel like it could have been even better with how it went. I have a metric that weights in the added value of a downfield target and a red zone target for players. So his 15 target game was equivalent to a 23 target game based on the amount of leverage he got. If he were on the main slate, I'd say he should probably be the highest salaried receiver by a decent margin. I mean like if you gave Devonta Adams more deep targets, that's kind of the range he'd be in, right? Yeah, Cooper Cops rolls like kind of sinking. So it's really those three entire league can unfortunately sort of vanish as well. I think you're right. No, I think you're right. I think he would be the wide receiver one if you were on the main slate with like this current role. So I can't push back on that. Like it's awesome. Skull Vikings keep these just tight. KJ Osborne I think also worth mentioning that like that role is pretty legit. I would expect some fluctuation back and forth between him and Tyler Conklin. I think Conklin could have a game similar to what Osborne had, but it's good to know that Osborne has a game like that in his range of outcomes. I think that Conklin has good games like that also within his, again, range of outcomes for the 15th time in the past minutes. We did see the Packers in a pretty neutral script on Sunday, but it was still a lot of AJ Dillon. It seemed previously as if like they would use Dillon when they were up big and like they were down for a lot of this game. And Dillon still out snapped Aaron Jones, 53% to 45%. Dillon had 15 carries to Jones's five, but Jones did have three targets to Dylan's none. Dillon had seven out of 13 red zone chances. Jones had just one. So is Aaron Jones usable? Is AJ Dillon usable? Or are they just a backfield to avoid at this point, which is weird. I mean, so this just sort of goes back to one of our core questions and is it, are we ever okay with backfield committees in DFS? The answer generally is no, unless the offense is so good that they generate numerous red zone chances for these backs. This is one of those spots where there is a bit of an exception that we can make in that regard, but anyone who's been listening to the show for a while knows that I have like a weird phobia with Aaron Jones, where I kind of just view him as like this majority back, but definitely not a feature back. And if he's going to be like a minority back, it's really hard to get there, especially with the fact that like AJ Dillon gets red zone work, can catch the body of the backfield. He's like, I think I'm just out, honestly. I think you can talk yourself into it if it's like a, oh, there's slight dogs, but how many teams are they slight dogs to? Like, I don't know. And it's just tough. I think the real question with this backfield and backfields like this, like the Broncos really come to mind, it's going to be what's the running back slate look like. If we get a slate like this week, like I used Givante Williams this week, even with Robert Gordon back. He was the highest rostered player in the Sunday million, or highest rostered running back should say. And so within the context of the slate, Givante Timmy was still one of the best five plays. And AJ Dillon's salary has been very low the entire year. So like maybe we could talk yourself into him. Okay. We know that they play Baltimore with a low 42 and a half point total. I think that's second lowest of the 11 games on the main slate. Give me a salary for Aaron Jones. Like 6,000. So he's 75, which I can't do. I think it's the same for AJ Dillon, 6,000 as well. He's also 75. What? I think I'm just, I don't think that that's a realistic. I didn't have FOMO at that salary. I don't either. Cool. That's right. Past catch and roll that Dave Montgomery had last week stuck around this week. He had seven targets here. And that's important because last week was Eddie Dalton. This week was Justin Field. So both quarterbacks, he got targets in them. That was the one big flaw that Montgomery had his role previously was that he didn't get targets, but now he is. So how is your view of Montgomery shifting given the target load the past two weeks? I'm just, I'm surprised that they're on another prime time game. Why are the four and nine bears playing so many prime time games? Justin Fields is fun. Is that like the? I don't know. I don't know that's the reason. That's why I'm okay with it. Look at the salary. And then I remembered right away that they're on. Yeah. I mean like on Monday night. So do I want to watch typical four and 19? No. Do I want to watch a four and 19 with Justin Fields? I'm down with it. It works. And David Montgomery, right? Yeah. Exactly. He's been your guy. You've had a much better read on Montgomery than I have this year. But I do think that on the, you know, within the context again of like a full slate, there's enough here. Yeah. That would be appealing. It's really hard to fade outright a running back. He's playing 80 plus percent of the snaps. We don't get a whole lot of those anymore. And I would say back when we started this show, we have, you know, like three backs who played 95% of the snaps. We're lucky to get 80% for a lot of guys at this point. The route rates been good. The targets, of course, as you're talking about. So it's a really good situation, even if the offense isn't flawless. But you also have been pointing out you've been kind of beating the drum for Justin Fields, showing a lot of improvement. So you can't really use his full season numbers. Well, I mean, he did throw a couple bad pick sixes, you know, but it's in struggles too. But, you know, I'm just saying it's probably 30, you know, for the week eight on. No, it was earlier than that. So like the numbers aren't going to look very good. But because like last night's numbers didn't look good. But I don't know. I think that they're just more competent offense than we've, if you then if you include the first couple of games, like the first game he came in relief, second game is with Matt Nagycom plays. I think you can do from week four on, honestly, and like look at that. I don't want to make you do it right now. But I think that like the overall thing is fields can have good games and that's that's worth noting. It's not like he is. It's not like a like I'm not going to. Zach Wilson is in a very bad situation. I am not throwing shade at Zach Wilson. I do not think we should give up on Zach Wilson, but it's not a Zach Wilson situation where the range of outcomes is small in a bad way. Yeah. Well, for the sake of argument, I will not mention any numbers on Justin. Okay. Let's go to Debo Samuel then instead. Debo came back, played is 77% of the snaps of the 49ers and just one targets. George Kettle at 15, Brandon IU Kettle 11. Samuel did line up in the backfield a few times. He had nine backfield snaps, eight carries, 44 snaps to receiver, but just the one target. Jeff Wilson played a 59% snap rates usage was bad because he lost carries to Debo and like, you know, kind of what we could have expected. He also just he had no red zone chances. So Kettle IU featured Debo getting work in the backfield but not getting the same passing game volume you had before. How do we view this? This is a very weird and unique situation. For me, also, sorry, I deleted some stuff out of the notes that I had written. So I made it a little more convoluted for Jim DeHuster. You did a phenomenal job. I just wanted to commend you. I'll say firstly, Debo Samuel has now had under 25 receiving yards in three straight games. Despite that, he's had 12.4, 20.3 and 15.9 Fandall points. I don't know what I'm supposed to do with this information. So, like, I don't think we should look at the passing in the receiving yardage. I don't think that matters. I think we should look at total yardage. Total yardage furthest your point, but I think it's more. So, like, if you look at the four games where Debo's been used to running back more, he's at 91 yards per game. That's actually pretty good for a receiver. Before that, though, he's at 113. So, like, that's a pretty big downgrade. He's living off touchdowns, but, like, they're giving him high-leverage work, which can lead to touchdowns. So, I think it's a downgrade for him, but I also don't think it means he's, like, just doing the, like, it's, again, so let me talk about this with Gronk. You can't use the, he can't keep getting away with this. Was he called Laro Patterson? Kinda? But he's getting fewer targets? Yeah. I don't know. Yeah, so, like I said, I mean, the words I specifically said were, you know, of the effective, I don't know what to do with it. Like, I don't, I do not know how to handle a wide receiver whose salary is, like, close to 8,000 generally. Yeah. Who is treated as, like, a part-time running back. Like, the guaranteed carries are awesome, but I don't really want to roster a guy, and I'll have to pull up some touchdown regression numbers that probably would tell me something, you know, that the role is, is touchdown friendly. So, like, that's the other issue. Yeah. Well, like, again, it's not just touchdowns. 91 yards per game is still a good amount. Like. Sure. It's still a good amount. It's just not as good as it was previously. So, like, if you were to ballpark a salary for Debo, give it to me. What I, so here's one where I cannot really separate what I would feel comfortable with. No, just tell me what you feel comfortable with. Just tell me that. I would feel comfortable at, like, 74. Oh, yeah. I think that's where I'd be, too. Yeah. I think that's, that's actually spot-on. He's 82. So, like, I think 74 is probably about right in his current role. Like, it's an awesome, fun role, but it's not the most fantasy-friendly one, because the yardage is down, because you don't get as many yards rushing as you do receiving in most situations. Like, so I love him, and I wish he were in his previous role. What about how you can kiddle now that Debo's commanding if you were a target, targets, and they're just like the focal points of the offense? Yeah. So, I think kiddle is the tight end one. I feel good with that. I think that he deserves, like, the historical Travis Kelsey treatment where it's like, George kiddle really could put up such a game that you can't really make up for it, unless you literally hit on a value tight end who puts up, like, 14, even though he got to 22, and you use that salary to, like, nail the rest of your lineup, which I know is the case for saving salaries that you can roster higher-ceiling players, but George kiddle honestly just has, like, such a good role and path to yardage upside and tight ends don't have yardage upside. So, when you find tight ends who have yardage upside, that's what makes them so viable. So, I think kiddle is the tight end one. I think a salary is going to be just something that we have to deal with. Brandon Iuk, I hope his salary remains in, like, the 6,000s, which it could, but his role, and it hasn't just been, like, a four-week thing. His role has been improving since, like, week three or four, and I think people are still not really a fan of him because he was so, like, yeah, that donut game and we'd want to, I guess it would have been. So, I hope Brandon Iuk is in the mid-6,000s because I will continue to go to him, but George kiddle, and I just saw his salary, I think it's very justified. It's 78. Yeah, like, if you put him at receiver at 78, like, he's kind of, I'm trying to think of a comp. He's Mike Evans-ish, right? We're like, he has yards upside, but he also has this touchdown upside. Just Mike Evans. I don't want to re-smart Mike Evans. Maybe Mike Evans wasn't the right comp, but the last two weeks, 181-151 yards for George kiddle. That's stupid. That makes me... It's stupid. The targets are now different, but that, like, 150 plus, but also touchdown upside, that makes me think Justin Jefferson. I think Justin... Like, I'm not making, like, a one-to-one comp, but if I'm transferring that same theory, I think Justin Jefferson can get there with, like, 159-catch game without scoring. I think it's either Justin Jefferson or Donovan Peoples-Jones, one or the other you can pick. Also, Iuk is 66. I think that's great. I think he's supposed to, like, have 7,000-type goal right now. All right, I'm going to open up a new Google Doc and put Brandon Iuk in my Player Lobs for a week or two. Yeah, I think so, too. I think that's pretty sick. Against the Falcons, I'm just... I'm not going to overthink that. Also, Jeff Wilson's toast, right? Yeah. We don't have to use him? I'm not going there. Thank goodness. Okay, let's talk about Zeke here, because I think it's, like, worth mentioning. I don't think it's worth freaking out over. He played 65% of the snaps in this one. Corey Clemente out here in 13-12. Bid Zeke still ran 28 routes. Clemente ran 9. Six targets for Zeke. So Zeke was off the field. He heard his back, like, very early in this game. Came off as a getting it checked out, but, like, stayed in because he's, like, ridiculously tough as, like, a football player. Like, just keep playing through stuff. So I think had he not gotten hurt and had that game been more competitive, we would have seen Zeke in, like, an 80% snap rate type role with 17 carries and his six targets. And if we get that, that's a pretty good role. So I think personally, if we continue to get no Tony Pollard as he deals with this plantar fascia, I kind of think that, like, Zeke would be justifiable as a guy to use in DFS. What about you? Yeah, people do not like Zeke. I don't know. I mean, I kind of get why, but people are really down on him. He's still playing heavy snaps and had been, even whenever Tony Pollard was at his peak. It's, you know, in terms of the spell situation. And I'm with you where, like, I don't know. The passing game work could have been really good. He had six targets. I don't know what else we should, like, what else do we want here? Like the fact that he got dinged up and it was a blowout, that's not specific to Zeke really. No. I mean, it might be because he's not 100%. Right, right. But nothing in his overall snap rates have shown us that, like, he's playing 45% of the snaps because he's hurt. Yeah. He had a 58% rushing success rate, according to the number of fires numbers, .09 rushing that expected points per carry. He was efficient on the ground. He was the receiving back within this offense. I don't, like, I don't know what else we can ask for, aside from big results because this game was closer. So they get the Giants next week. Let's pretend that there is no Pollard again. Name that salary for Zeke. So this one's really interesting and I can't really quite answer this without knowing he was 6,900 this week and didn't have a big game. So I don't think I'm going to have to say a number as high as I need to, but I'll play it the way that Jim plays it and say what I would pay to roster him. I think about 75. I think he won't be over 7,000. He's 67. I think that 75 is spot on. That's exactly what I would have said. And if there's no Pollard, I'm going right back. So let's keep it tight here, Mike Lennon. Their implied team total is 27 and a half at his second highest on the main slate. Yeah. They are big favorites, which could lead to a similar game script to what we had this week. But that's if we get fourth quarter, Mike Lennon or first quarter, Mike Lennon, because, you know, there's a slight difference yesterday between those two guys, although which Dak Prescott will we get? Come on, man. Let's not. I love. I love how dare you. I'm changing the subject. Melvin Gordon came back and seems like the role didn't really change between him and Givante Williams. Gordon and Williams had an even snap rate at 49% a piece. So right down the middle. Gordon now carried Williams 24 to 15. Williams had both the running back targets. They both scored twice. They both paid off. It was awesome. The one sliver of hope here is that Williams did run 15 routes on 26 drop backs compared to Gordon's six routes. So we typically avoid splits like this. I will say like, I don't regret using Givante Williams. Obviously because it worked out. But I think like even if you would like, I think that like even knowing that the workload, I don't feel like I got away with like robbery by using him here. I think it was still fine to use him despite this usage. We knew this was in the range of outcomes. I need to stop saying that word, that phrase. Anyway, we knew this could happen. We thought that there was a possibility could be better. And like if that possibility occurs, he's going to be like disgusting and he was disgusting even in the same role. So how are you doing this backfield knowing that Melvin Gordon is still a factor here? So I can't really talk about this backfield without talking about the Packers because we just talked about similar workload splits and snap rates. But I think the key difference despite the fact that yes, Green Bay's offense is much more efficient and they should be seeing much heavier implied team totals. Green Bay is much more of a past heavy team. Over the past five weeks, I have them fourth in non-garbage time pass rate. Denver is 24th. We know that Denver wants to run the ball. But I think that they would walk off the field doing a New England Patriots and throwing it one time and just being happy with that or where they throw three, I don't know. But whereas we're not going to get that with the Packers, the touchdowns for Green Bay could go to the receivers as we saw last night. Denver, I think, is fine just pounding it in with the running backs and not throwing the ball. I don't even know if Quarlin Sutton had a target, to be honest. Like you had two. Because I was tracking that. But yeah, they don't want to throw the ball. They don't want to feature anyone. So it is a different situation. And I don't think these guys will have high salaries. But if they do, if they are getting like the Packers treatment of $7,500 apiece, I'll be out. But if they're in like the upper sixes again, which would mean that they had big games and their salaries didn't move, I think I'd probably be interested because running back right now is really ugly. Yeah. They're facing the Bengals at home. One out point favorites. And the Bengals are not an elite team, but they're not the Lions. I think that that's a key difference here is that it's not like a team that has like 50% of the roster on the COVID list. Let's hope. I think that that matters a lot. But I think they're like, I think the key takeaway is when they're in spots like that, there's enough there where we can use them. And when they're in a situation like this where it's not like a decent opponent, we don't need to run away. We can at least look at them. I think that's what I would say about it. Yeah. I mean, that's not to say none of what I said was really meant to imply that like, I'm locking in these guys no matter what. But they're more in the considerations than any other like 50-50 split would ever be, basically. Yeah. If you told me back on like week three that these guys were doing the same exact thing, I'd be like, no, because we're going to have better running backs to pick from. I'm not playing Melvin Gordon over Derek Henry or like a healthy Christian McCaffrey. We don't have those guys. It's a very different situation. Yeah. So I think against the Bengals, Givante 7000, I would like to not get there. It's because, but like if I, if the running backs isn't good, I'm resupply to it. You know, like, I think that's the way I'd say it. Recept it to it. If I need to. I and look. I don't know. I just want to follow. What? 7000. So, yeah, Fandall just made the Packers guy 75 and the Broncos guy 7000, which I think is fine. Jonathan Taylor's like 10-2 is not he minds also 10-2. Yeah. Because it's the same exact situation with us. What do you mean? Rashad Petty came to life on Sunday. This is awesome. I know you were a Rashad Petty guy back in the day. So a vindication for role Brandon, 58% snap right for Rashad Petty, 16 carries and one target turned it into 238 yards. Passing game role was still muted. He did run a route on 11 to 28 drop backs. It's not like he did nothing in the passing game, but there was, you know, he looked good. He is the first CX running back to have a pulse this entire year, but he got by on two big runs and they're a bad running team over a larger sample. So, name that salary on Rashad Petty in week number 15. This is going to be one where I'm not as high as I should be despite the fact that you pointed out I was a big Rashad Petty fan. You know, it's still a 58% snap rate. I don't want to overreact to that. This offense is trending up because Ross is playing better. He's getting healthier. They're not going to play the Texans every week though. So 58% snap rate, which could always, you know, come back down if he fumbles. This team can do that. I'm not going to get out over my skis on salary. So I would, I don't think I could see myself rostering Rashad Petty if his salary is over like 62. I thought 65 and he's 61. I think that like big comp guy, love comps, love a good comp. Comptroller is what? You're a comptroller. I think that's what that means. I always get weird out when it's on the ballot. It doesn't, it confuses me. Anyway, I think he's Damien Harris. Damien Harris were behind a less good offensive line, like a less, well, old Damien Harris, not current Damien Harris where it's like everyone, you get a third of the snaps. You get a third of the snaps. You get a third of the snaps. Like back earlier on this year and like, that's worth something, but it's not worth a ton. It's like they're facing the Rams next week. That's a tough sell for me. Yeah. Okay. You be the comptroller and I'll be the comptroller and I'll just make fun of all the comps you come up with. So I'm glad you clarified. Is Jeff Wilson the comptroller? What? Is Jeff Wilson the comp if you're trolling for Rashad Penney? No. No. No. No. I mean, Penny showed some life. Yeah. It was good. And I think the distinction here is that Pete Carroll said that he was going to be a quote unquote big part of the offense. He's such a liar. I hate it. Like, no. Okay. You're right. Wilson became a big part of the offense because Eli Mitchell was out. I get where you're going. Yeah. He's a liar. He's a liar. He's such a liar. I hate him. Like it's 6100 for Penny next week on a team with an applied team total of 20 and a half. That's 13th out of 22 teams. I'm realistically not going to get there unless running back is so awful. But I consider a wide receiver flex lineup, which I did kind of joke about to you. That did win a Sunday million this week. And the often was a double tight end. Second three week, actually, that's happened, by the way. So maybe when I really don't like running back, I don't just force in three and I just kind of play it differently. Maybe that's, yeah, that's a big boy. Potentially. Yeah. It's, I needed to be really bad slate to get on him at 61 against the Rams. It was a bad running back slate this week. It's a fair salary, but it's just not the best situation. He's going to be an optimizer. He's going to be an optimizer of love play. Chase Claypool's role stayed pretty bad. And then he had that weird celebration thing, you know, whatever it is. I don't care. I think celebrations are cool. It didn't really, maybe not then 61% snap rate for the second straight week for Chase Claypool. Ray Ray McLeod out snapped him. 84% snap rate. Claypool did still have nine targets. Deontay Johnson at 10, McLeod had eight. So Claypool's role is not what it used to be. He's on a bad passing offense. Where are we at with this situation right now? Yeah, the reason I even made this note is because we're usually so strapped at receiver in the mid range that I'm looking and clawing for any scrap of value I can find. Claypool as a player, as a talent, has the potential to have a big game. We know that he also has multi-touchdown upside. Did he score four one game last year? Yeah, because it was the joke was Chase Traypool, because he had three, but then he scored another one and ruined everything. Chase Quadpool, I don't know. Has he scored since then? How dare you? But yeah, that's the reason I wanted to look into this a little bit closer. And his snap rate's been down two straight weeks. You mentioned the not great passing offense. I think it's fair to say Ben had a lot of production this week, but that was just kind of game script related. This whole offense is down because of the passing efficiency. So I think that Claypool is another crossoff in the mid-range, despite my best efforts to try to find reasons to want to play high upside plays. They play the Titans next week. That feels like a Smash Mouth game. He's still 64. His sour is not moved. No. I was wondering if he's 59. He's in the 5th out. Yeah, exactly. But he's not. But it's 64. There's not enough. Yep. That's a bummer. OK, situations to monitor. What else did you take note of on Sunday? We talked about blowouts. But one thing to kind of keep in mind is that Joe Mixon came into that into this week's game with an illness. He played 60% of the snaps to just kind of keep that in mind with his role. Don't probably don't overreact, especially if he's full practices next week. Josh Jacobs had six targets for 46 yards, just 24 rushing yards on nine carries. But that game was better. He really could have had a great role. Played 73% of snaps even in the blowout. We've been talking about his passing game usage. I believe six targets is now his solo third best game, which would give him three of his four best career games in terms of targets. So he's basically just a brand new player with this workload. Speaking of the Raiders passing offense, Hunter Renfro has a 25% target share in six post-buy games for almost 80 yards a game. I think that he is someone that we have to continue to change our tune on and kind of shed the old priorities. I like the comp. Like a really high volume low ADOT. Yeah, I can't think of any good comps for that. Yeah. But low ADOT is still able to convert that into yardage because he's pretty good after the catch. Is that like a prime? Don't say prime. The kind of view like Larry Fitzgerald. Maybe or like 2020 Devo? Yeah, I could maybe see that. But was Devo's volume that good last year? Maybe, yeah, no, I think you're right. Yeah, he was hurt the whole year, so it was hard to like judge. Maybe like a, I think that's kind of like where he'd be is around there. So like someone you kind of lock in be like he's going to get like 10 targets and like there's some juice there that wasn't really there before with his role. So continuing to monitor this and make sure that I'm not ruling out Renfro, which I wish I had not done this past. I tried to trade him in a dynasty league before the season. It's a tight end or a tight end premium dynasty league and it was Hunter Renfro for Dan Arnold and someone was insulted that I would dare send that offer. Like how dare you insult me with Hunter Renfro for Dan Arnold? Well, I also insulted Renfro because when we were talking about like the game stacks and the Raiders on Thursday, I forgot to mention Renfro. I got to stop doing that. Like the 25% we're talking about, you know, 80% snap rates for running backs. Not a whole lot of receivers have 25% target shares in this new I think he's the number one bring back unless you expect to be very close game, which in which case you go Jacobs. Yeah. Yeah. Just this isn't super relevant, but it's kind of a stop. Stop mentioning Chuba Hubbard thing. Amir Abdul allowed snap Chuba Hubbard 60% to 39%. It's a fifth straight game. He had more snaps. I know Chuba Hubbard scored, but like Chuba Hubbard is not a thing right now. Robbie Anderson might be a thing had 12 targets after not having more than six in five straight games. Also was in the Sunday million winning lineup. I wouldn't have got there over 10,000 lineups myself, but do you view this as a shift for Robbie Anderson? Nope. Move on. And another one of Jim's favorites, Amon Ross St. Brown had a second straight 12 target game. Jim's rubbing his face. He has a 27% target share with a sub five-yard ADOT since a role spike four games ago. I think you could do worse if you really, really, really need some value at receiver. So you're acquired 12 targets in both games, 86 and 73 yards. Hey, your checklist is 85 yards. I know, but Dr. Reynolds can get there on like three targets. So like, has he? He's had 79 and 52. Yeah, but I'm just saying 27% target share is noteworthy regardless of who you are. He's a rookie. It makes sense that there are shifts going on. Whatever. Anyway, I had a couple of James and Crowder shares this week. I thought he would be a target hog. Who's the dummy now? It's me. He wasn't in the team. It was terrible. I think they might be so bad that we just try to avoid people even if they get volume. Like Braxton Barry has got 10 targets. He's a fake player. Like they're all fake players. He had like, I was, I was track, I was tracking that trying to see if James and Crowder was even like playing, but 10 targets for 52 yards. They're top two receivers are slot guys. Like Elijah Moore should be in the slot. Like he's good outside too. But like, yeah, I know these out, but like with Elijah Moore out this team is dust. Just don't use them until if he comes back. He might not. I mean, because he has, they have four games left. And he has two more on IR. So he comes back. Sure. If not, no, Titans backfields. Nobody played more than 37% of the snaps. So that's bad. But Julio is back limited role. He had six targets, 20% share. He's the guy I'm most willing to use here, but even most willing to use the situation might not mean I will use him. But he's on the map is what I would say. I'm going to begrudgingly go with some talent over role and situation lamps with Julio Chase Clay full stacks next week. Just like, I'm not going to do that. And then Hunter Renfro, Amon Ross, St. Brown, who's other just like weird Derek Gore guys running 468s are going to like make the perfect lineups instead of them for all the weird sport, man. We can probably stop using Cam Newton in DFS. He got spelled at times by PJ Walker. He also just struggled to spyping at home against the Falcons. That's like the best situation you can have. They're coming up by two negative point one, one passing that expected points per drop back. He'd need to go bananas as a rusher to make up that split. So just don't use them. Russell Wilson 0.55 passing that expected points per drop back. It was in a dome against the Texans, but it's nice to know he has that like that upside again. He also threw deep on 32% of his passes. Seven of those nine deep passes were the Tyler Lockett. He was basically old Russ. So they get the Rams next week. That's a lot tougher. Rams on the road, a lot tougher. It's also in a dome, but a lot tougher than the Texans. So are you willing to trust this passing offense now that Russ is Mr. Unlimited once again, maybe? Well, so I want to kind of take a win here because I talked about Russ in a trend. I couldn't quite get there myself because I preferred other quarterbacks. Despite the efficiency being good, where you have like 260 and two touchdowns. I always have an issue with Russ because it feels like his best games are 250 and four touchdowns. Yeah. Not really like a 400 yard passer. So what this does more for me is put, keeps Tyler Lockett, Deakey and Matt Kafe relevant, Gerald Everett begrudgingly bailed himself out with a touchdown. Did he bail himself out though? He didn't get 10 points even, despite scoring a touchdown. Yeah, but at 4,800, again, though, I mean, who were the value tight ends? Jared Cook, Moreau, Everett, and then good luck if you didn't have Mark Andrews or George Kittle. Jared Cook? Oh, where are we? I'm trying to search the wrong thing. Here we go. Okay, Jared. Nice on Thursday. Oh, boo. Okay. I was trying to use the player pool to find his game log and that was not working because he was not on either slate that I had pulled up. So that wasn't particularly good. I'll pull it. I don't want to take a section here because he wasn't Josh Palmer or Jaylen Guyton. Eight targets, a touchdown. Or sorry, sorry, five targets, eight yards. Oh, well, okay. Good. I know you. Yeah. Okay. Anyway, back to, let's talk about lock it in that calf because I'm not using Gerald Everett. Yeah. I also don't think I'm quite using Ross unless the salary is phenomenal. Yeah. So there's six and a half point dogs next week against the Rams. Russell Hussle. $7,200. $7,200. I think in that situation, you got to tell yourself that that game is going to score like 60 points. Good. My one fear is that after Rashad Penney did the thing. Oh, no, you're right. They will try to. Pete Carroll's on the sideline going vindication. I don't. I don't know if Adrian Peterson will be back. Not that his snap rate is anything relevant, but again, we're, we're dealing with teams. We're a team in the situation that wants to run the ball and they will do it even if it is at the behest. Is that the right behest of efficiency? Sure. I don't know. It sounds good to me though, but that's a concern. Yep. I still think it's interesting though. Interesting. I think we'll be talking about them Thursday, whether we're saying yes, we should use them or no, I think there'll be a discussion point. Behest ain't the right word, but I tried. What about Devin Hester? We'll do that. I'm going to tell you. Devin Hester vibes from the Bears though. They're special teams. That's true. Jekeem Grant, the new Devin Hester or the new Reggie Bush. Okay. I'm going to tell you some facts and I want you to ignore them. Okay. So I don't know if earmuffs is right here, but like I'm going to tell you this and I desperately want you to ignore me. Devin Singletary played 80% of the snaps on Sunday. He had four carries and seven targets, 89 yards, no red zone chances. So some of the typical Singletary limitations were still there. It's worth noting that he had 80% snap rates. I am telling you I'm aware of this. This is a note to say I'm aware of this and I don't care because they just said, Hey, we're not going to run, which is what they should do. But I'm not using Devin Singletary. You could not pay me to use Devin Singletary. I will not do so. How dare you ask me? Let's move to philosophical changes for this week. What if I told you, what if I told you that you get all of those, all of those variables for a salary of 5,400? I could not care less because you won't have that role next week. He is going to be, it's going to be Rashad Penny. No, Zach Moss to be active next week. It doesn't matter. He's still going to be optimizer loves. The Saints were super run heavy in their first game with their quarterback having a broken finger. They had 16 rushes to 10 passes, no way down from the first half. The problem is that Mark Ingram will likely be back next week. So we can't even like put a ton of stock in Alvin Camara. Just getting all the uses this week. So I'm medium high in Camara and out on the right. I'm not going to be using Devin Singletary. I'm not going to be using Devin Singletary. I'm medium high in Camara and out on the rest of this offense outside of Hill in the right spots. What about you? Yeah, I have their non-garbage time. Pass rate is 36.7%, which is wild. Wild. I'm not. Well, first of all, I wasn't on anyone other than Jason Hill and Alvin Camara. I think I'm probably going to, as much as this hurts to say for a quarterback who has 50-yard rushing like touchdown potential, I think I'm probably just going to avoid Hill as much as I can and hope that he doesn't quite get there with the rushing touchdowns because the passing numbers really not expected to be there long term. They get Tampa next week. It's not the main slate, thankfully. But that's going to be a weird game for them because they don't think you can't run, but he also can't pass. They didn't probably start Trevor Simeon in that game, honestly. That might be in their best interest. They're not going to do that. Free touchdown, Trevor. Also, that's the reason that Taysum did well yesterday was because it was a Trevor Simeon revenge game. I want you to know that that was the reason why. Time on Gumray, too, but like it's mostly Trevor. So you're welcome, Saints fans, for Trevor Simeon guiding you to victory via his revenge yesterday. Sorry, we're yet in Camara assuming Ingram is back next week. Kind of expect the role to scale back a tinge within an offense. It's not ideal. Again, in that specific matchup, you'd expect Camara to get heavy receiving work. But let's play that if that game was on the main slate game. Assuming Ingram plays. Assuming Ingram plays like. Tough matchup 81. Yeah. I think that's fair. Okay. It's probably slower than he would be. I know that. He wouldn't be a core play. Yeah. This one's kind of interesting. The Texans actually let it rip a bit with Davis Mills. They had a 59% early down first half pass rate. It was 50% through their first 12 games. Does this make you any more willing to use Brandon Cooks and Enico Collins love? I was hoping Brevin Jordan could be a thing, but his route numbers actually were not that great. So I restrained myself. But any interest here? Is this a serious? Yeah. This isn't like a prank. No. Tell me. I don't know if this was going to be one of those situations where you're just setting me up to look like a dummy. No, I'd never do that. I mean, this would make me feel good about better, better about bringbacks really only with Brandon Cooks. But they play the Jaguars next week. So I'm not going to target them as a primary offense. And I'm definitely not targeting any Jaguars. So I'm going to miss out on a Brandon Cooks game. Yeah. I think I probably will too, but like I think that they're more acceptable than they were previously, which is worth noting. Oh my goodness. Name a salary then that specific matchup for Brandon Cooks next week. 58. He's 6,900. So you thought I was a joke. You thought I was a joke. Jokes on you, bud. Jokes on you. Not a chance for me. Nope. So I'll see where that stacks up. Oh, OK. Let's do it. Let's go to our salary school here. We're going to skip the Saturday slate because it's two games. Let's go straight to the Sunday slate starting off at quarterback. Shout out things that you see as you run across them. Oh goodness. We have two quarterbacks with salaries over 78. Oh, because my home is on Thursday. Herbert's on Thursday. Baker's not on the main slate. That's why. We've Kyler Murray, 8,800 at the Lions. Oh, buddy. I want to want some of that. And then Josh Allen, 87. And then it drops down to Jalen Hurts at 78. So like, you're either going to be playing Kyler Murray and Josh Allen or you're not. Like, and that's going to change the way that you build your lineups with that extra thousand a little bit. I mean, it's not like it's 4,000 difference, but. Seeing Dak Prescott into a tongue of Iloa with salaries that are $100 apart is jarring. And it makes me want to use Dak in every lineup. I know, I know he's had some issues. But like, that's a low salary for a guy who long term is a very good quarterback. Yeah. Three of his past four under 13 Fandall points. Yeah. I understand why the salaries low. Maybe I'll, um, if I remember, I can do a deeper dive on what's going on there. It also depends on if Tyron Smith is out anyway left early on Sunday. I'm not sure if he didn't come back in because he was hurt or because of the blowout. A lot of cons got ejected. They've got some depth of tackle, which helps. But like, when Smith is out, it's actually a pretty legit downgrade. Aaron Rogers is also 76 if his toe is healthy. I know it's a really low total game, but like, that could be interesting. I do think that like Ross is 72. Not totally out of play. No, because of the context of quarterback, although. Like we could just look at, we could be looking at all of these. The game you're going to, we're going to have to play as do Kyler or Josh Allen get to like 30 plus because if they do odds are you need them to like, I don't know if I said this on the show or before the show to you, but Tom Brady was in the Sunday, million winning lineup. Josh Allen and the optimal like, because they were the only, yeah, I think I said this, but yeah, we're looking at the same exact Kyler and Allen get there. Stafford is 77 as well. Tyler Huntley 64. Probably not. Probably not. Not our spectrum, but don't want to use them. Yeah. Okay. Running back. Yeah, that's a Kyle Allen 62. No, how, what, what? We might not know. You were joking, correct? Yeah. Oh my goodness. Don't startle me like that. Anyway, running back. Naji Harris is 9000 or sorry, $8,800. I rounded up. Nobody else above 83. Joe Nixon is 83. James Connery, 8000 with Chase Edmunds likely back. So this is why you're in Jones and AJ Dillon are the the high sour guys. They are. It makes more sense. I think the takeaway is that we don't need to allocate a bunch of salary to running back, which is nice. Yes, that is going to. Okay. So it's forming in my mind. I'm probably going to lock in Kyler and Allen and half, and half my lineups each because I don't need to. I don't need to roster Naji Harris. I won't feel the need to roster Joe Nixon against the Broncos on the road. And with James Conner likely having his role scaled back even against Detroit. Yeah. That's not a must. Cordero, 7000. His role has not been as good recently in terms of the passing game work, but we know that he has pretty good upside. I think that that's not terrible at home or on the road against San Francisco. I'm going to jump back up real fast. I know Eli Mitchell didn't practice this week, but Eli Mitchell at 78 against the Falcons. Yeah. Would you kind of view him as like the best of the four guys above 75? I'd probably be higher on Nixon by a bit. Okay. But I think Mitchell is right alongside him. Okay. One thing that stood out to me, if Darrell Henderson is not at the COVID list, Sonya Michelle is $6,800. I will lose my gall bang mind over Sonya Michelle if we get him in that situation. Yeah. Also, he gets 67. So this is not for an 11 game slate. There's not a whole lot here. I think it could be a week where we go with a non running back in the flex for sure based on early look. A lot of things can change, obviously. Miles Sanders had a pretty good role before their buy week. I know he got banged up at the end, but he's $6,500. That could work. Devonte Freeman, 59. Packers. Yeah. He might honestly end up being one of my loves based on assuming receiver looks decent. We know Titan, we have George Kittle. Yeah. Just load up. Oh, darn. I have to use George Kittle. Sounds terrible. Okay. Wide receiver. Wide receiver is a lot better. Okay. There's really not much. Devon Singletary absolutely is going to be an optimizer favorite. I don't care. Sorry. I'm still, I can't get over how bad. Yeah, it'll be fine. It'll be fine. It'll be fine. Bye Sunday. I think it's a good week to consider non running backs in the flex though. Receiver is better. I think that's good. First thing that stands out to me is that CD Land is 74. I think I'm going to wind up on Cowboys again. Jaylen Waddle with 71 seems a bit aggressive. The Jets, but with Devonte Parker being back. I don't know. Yeah. I'm Mark Cooper, 7000. He's wide receiver better. Yeah. It has Cup, Adams, Diggs. That's good to Redevo. Like Jamar Chase. Like, yeah. Receiver is better. T Higgins literally not allowed to be above 7000. He's 68. I mean, it's a tough matchup. So maybe that's why he's being held down, but 114 plus yards in three straight games. Best thing that ever happened in his career is me calling him fake. DK Metcalf, 68 against the Rams in their first matchup caught all five targets for 98 yards in two touchdowns. Sonya Michelle, DK Metcalf game stacks with Russ, maybe, maybe. You get 66. Yeah. I still think that's really nice. I think AJ Brown is eligible to come off IR this week. He's $6,500. I'm not sure if that's accurate. Oh my gosh. My bovan. He's up to 62. Finally. They put some respect on my son. Michael Gauss, 59. Say Michael Gauss for Almond Ross and Brown straight up. Michael Gauss. What? Devonte is 59. Devonte Smith. Devonte Parker is 58. Oh. Oh. Devonte Parker 58 works out pretty well, right? Yeah. I like that. This role was fine. It was, there were the, as you said. Well, he was the first game back. He was getting ramped up. As you say, the building blocks of after a buy, stepping into that matchup. Cortland Sutton is 56, which is about 56 too high still. Marquez Valdes scantling, I bet, is over on his yardish prop last night. I didn't go well, but he's $5,500. He's actually had like a decent little role recently. I can see myself going there. Receiver's kind of good. Not going to lie. I don't know why you were hating. I think it's pretty good. It's, it's good at the top. I think there are options. So I realistically do think that this might be a wider sea reflex week. I agree. I think so. Okay. Let's move to tight end. George Kittle. There we go. Put him in my lineup. Big, big drop off. George Kittle at 78. Mark Andrews 74. Dawson Knox 65. Mike Kasicki 62. So we got four guys above 6,000. It's going to be the same thing in quarterback. You say, did George Kittle and Mark Andrews have big games? If they don't, you can justify saving salary. If they do, you are going to want them in your lineups. Wow. George Kittle so good. Against the Falcons, man. Dallas Goddard is 6,000. I know he went off because Gardner Minshew was starting, but he also had like, okay. He had like a heartbeat when Hertz was starting. Problem is, do you go to Goddard at 6,000 or Kittle at 78? And to me it's a very easy question where I'm going to Kittle every time. So his salary is a little bit too high still, I think. Yeah. Zachary, it's 53, depending on what his role looks like on Monday. Because that's their first like full, full game. Because like last week was a blowout. That's their first full, full game with Nuke and Kyler back tonight. So depending on what his role looks like there, that could be something at least. Do you think we can use, we're going to want 49ers with Kittle and IU? I guess so, although we wouldn't stack Kittle with Kyle Pitts. But do you think Kyle Pitts is just like toast? No. Okay. He had like 60 something yards this week. 61 on six targets. Like when I use it, if you're a projector, you popular? No. But like, I don't think it's on the map. I think IU pit stacks are going to be very much in play. Yeah. So whenever I don't use Kittle and I use IU. Yeah. He's looking good work. You know, I think that's fine. I can, I can get behind that. I don't even want to look at the lower like super low salary tight ends. I don't think it's a week to do that given where running back is, giving more quarterback is stuff like that. I think you just don't, don't. Yeah. I don't want to get suckered in. I did that last week. I really, I really tried to find salary at tight end, which even though Monday and the thing I love about this show is I get all my, my takes out were fresh and I'm seeing things without seeing what other people were saying or reading anything else. Yeah. And then I was like, we want, we're going to want to allocate salary to tight end because we got studs. And then I, I didn't always do that. Joe, whatever revenge game. Nope. It doesn't matter. He's irrelevant. He's a fake player. Defense. I can do this. Cincinnati's $3,400 pretty tight game against Denver. I know Teddy doesn't make a lot of mistakes, but that's noteworthy to me. Giants against stack. How dare you. Jacksonville against Houston. Hey, yeah. Maybe if Jackson, maybe if Houston is really past heavy, then you can get some. Oh, yeah. Right. Okay. Can the Jacksonville Jaguar Jaguar? Sorry. Take advantage of a past heavy Houston Texans team tune in on Thursday to find out this episode of the heat check fantasy podcast. It's not looking great down there. He is 37 against Ryan Tannehill, who loves to take sacks, loves them sacks, loves them. Big sack guy. Like a Sam Cassell thing. He's a big sack guy. Anyway, um, we'll let that hang as Sam Cassell does. Denver's 4,000. I think that that's also kind of in play against the Bengals. Houston's 4,000 against Jaguars. You know, I think the defense is okay too. I actually kind of like this late running back stinks, but the rest is kind of fun. I think, uh, I think it's going to be a good slate. I'm optimistic. Like quarterback. Let me be in a good mood. Let me be in a good mood. Oh, that's shish. Shish. I'm playing my role. I'm playing my role. You're optimistic and energetic. I'm pessimistic and low energy. Yeah. Balance out. So if you're coming from that mindset, what would be your notes to future me as we close up shop for today? Um, I would say just play Kyler and Josh Allen and make sure you have enough George Kittle and Mark Andrews. Get your quarterback. Get your Kittle. Figure out the rest in there. I think that's the way the slate that's up next week. It'll require a lot of digging at running back in. If we are going just to per lineup, it's going to require a lot of digging to decide who those correct two will be. We'll be doing that on Thursday as always will be live here on the Fandall YouTube page at 10 a.m. on Thursday. Posts up on the Number Fire Daily Fantasy podcast feed after that. So find that wherever you get your podcast, we also have NBA, NHL, UFC, all that good stuff here on the Number Fire Daily Fantasy podcast feed. So hit subscribe. Go over there. And if you like what you hear, leave us a rating and review as well. Brandon, any final thoughts before we close up shop for today? Um, don't overreact to these ballouts. And at this point we're starting to see roles change players coming back from injury players leaving from injury. Just consider really thinking things through and not looking at full season numbers because by now I would say the minority of teams is that applicable to only person? Like if I look at the most relevant sample for running backs, like maybe Austin Eckler is the full seasons relevant for him. Yeah. Even that I could nitpick. So I agree with that as well. Okay. Back with you once again on Thursday to get you set up. Brandon, people want to find you on Twitter. Where can they find you there? I'm at Kadula 13 GD, ULA 13. And I imagine Sanis, J-I-M-S-A-N-N-E-S. You can also follow the FanDual Podcast Network at FanDual Podcast. Big thank you to everyone for tuning in for today. Talk to you once again on Thursday to get you set for week 15. We'll see you on the heat check fantasy podcast powered by Number Fire.