 The following is a presentation of TFNN. The Tiger Technician Hour with your host, Basil Chapman. Call now. Call free at 1-877-927-6648. Hi everyone, Basil Chapman, Tiger Technicians Hour. We're looking at the Dow down 294, 35,335. This is going to be very interesting because we had Facebook come out with very disappointing everything. And it's down 25%. That is a monster move down. And that's just telling us that growth is still being impacted, but possibly the value area is starting to move a little bit better. We'll see. Question of the day. Let me just do this. Well, did you get a trim flash high yesterday? Yes, I got a high trim reading which said that there should be a 9 to 11 point move in the E-mini, even if it's from a lower down level. And of course, it got smashed overnight. The E-mini, look at this, the ESL, go to the continuous contract just for the moment, just got decimated. It went right down to the 14-period moving average after hitting. That was 46, just missed it, 4586, round number high. And this morning, early this morning, it went down to 4505, 100 points. I mean, that's just, that's nothing to sneeze at. Don mentioned sneeze. And what we're looking at is right at the Chapman Way inside track repellent zone. That's exactly what we're looking at. Will we be able to break above that by Monday of this coming week into the 4600? That's going to be a big question. Right now, what we've seen is huge selling. Then there was a buy attempt pre-opened that looked good, but I was very nervous about that. And then there was a failure. And that retest in this H pattern, let me just see if I can get there, because this is a really important moment in the general market today at this particular point. You see, the 200-period moving average in the E-mini at that, look at that 200-period moving average. It wiggled around it for about, this is a 10-minute chart from about 2 to this morning to about 4, maybe 5 o'clock, just at 4.30. And then, eastern time. And then it plunged. And then it went right back to retest and said, hey, where you at? I'm not finished. I want to see if that 200-period moving average is a repellent or a propellent. Well, it was repellent. Boom. It goes above that. And that was at 7 o'clock. And that failure took out the left side low, and it took an equal one-to-one to the downside of the move and the arch formation. And that was important. And right now, we're looking at the chance that we're going to try to form a, but any of these rally attempts were way premature. I think from, what do we, from about 10.15 to 10.20 this morning, that's about the time that all the selling pressure should be over. And at least a little, the potential for a relief rally is there. I say relief rally because we don't know yet. It's still a little early in the day to see what's working. I always think of it like a sieve. You've got your grains and all the little grains that keep falling out and the bigger ones stay. This is what we're looking at today. And that's what I say to subscribers. We want to see, what does it say? This is a key sifting session for value and for value and things like staples or maybe within the sectors that are different sectors. You could be talking about the different sectors in the commodities, whatever it is. That's the moment that you're going to be looking at. What is, what is working? So let me just go back here. As I say, this is the moment that you try to find a base and about from 10.15 to 10. I'd actually say somewhere around 10.15. Where are we now? We're at 10.10. Yeah, somewhere within this from now until 10.35. That's going to be really important because any rally that sustains and it caught it to his heaven. We're looking at the Dow only, only it's down 300, only down say 210 to 180. That says, okay, now you can see what's working, what's not working, what's failed to rally, et cetera. Now let's get back to our story. So we went there. Let's just go to the actual S&P itself because I wanted to show you something very interesting. Look, the magnetic cross positive. You usually, I like to see that in a leg B to the upside. I also like to see this stochastic at about 58 to 68% on this particular move. Well, it got to 60%. I also like to see that the histogram of the MACD having cross positive is now holding nicely in the positive area. That's the 0% line. Yep, that is. That's a plus 10. I also like to see that the nine period moving average, which in this case is in a cell mode, is attempting or getting really close. To the black 14 period moving average, and he's trying to cross positive. The moment it crosses positive, there's a really good chance that I'm going to be upgrading the S&P by signal, not the weekly, weekly cellular cell mode. The daily by signal to a by mode. I haven't done that yet. I haven't got close because that nine is still way underneath the 14. But if that happens, that would imply that at least we're going to push over this downtrend line. Definitely falling exformation. I always have new people coming in. So let me just talk about that. I have a lot of questions I'm going to get to in a moment. I just want to take a little time because it's so important to be able to articulate your thoughts. And I'm very visual. So I know that some people like me want to see it. So what am I looking at? You see this decline? It's like an expanding code formation. Well, look, that's what I call falling as you go up and then you come down and make lower highs, much lower lows. And then all of a sudden you start to form a base. And if you break out from that trend line on the downside, you can have a one to one to the upside and maybe test the left side high. I don't know about that. We have to go to the first time, which is really way up in the 4700s. Let's just, we can't even talk about that. We haven't got to the 4600s. So let's just say that this is the pattern I would be looking at. And this is the moment within the next 10 months or so that I think we'll start to see. Well, let me just do the VIX index because that's also part of it. The volatility index must have popped right up. Yep, it did. It popped to 2412. It hit the 200-period moving average yesterday in a league beat to the downside. It's trying to rally. It's up $1.49 at 2358. I suspect that we need a little more time for the market to decide what's working and what's not working. And we are seeing some areas that are holding pretty well. I need to do this because as I'm saying, holding very well, we want to see what is the XLF doing. We spoke about this quite a bit yesterday and the day before. That's the financials. Well, the S&P financials are trading down to six pennies at 3981. Nice action. And one of the reasons is for days and days I've been wanting to talk about this and I just keep forgetting about it. And now I can mention it because I didn't forget. I remember it. When you get a straight line down in a major move, 41.70 on the 13th of January in the XLF, and you cascade down to the 3660s, I think it was. I think you did the exact number to the 3682 level on the 24th of January, 3682. 36.82. Invariably, if there is a turnaround, you could have a very sharp turnaround and it could go to a 50% retracement. And that's kind of what you seem to. So this is very important. There's a lot to look at. I'll be back in a moment. And I will be back in a few seconds. Are you looking for a way to consistently add winning trades to your portfolio? Tom O'Brien is here to help. 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We did experiment with a growth ETF, just one of the biggest growth ETFs since being on the downside. Fortunately, we had really tight stops and it got hit with that Facebook. Well, it got hit yesterday. We got out with a few percentage loss. I'm still looking at it, a scan saying, well, let's see what happens with this particular instrument over the next couple of days. It's very oversold, but I'm not even going to touch it until I feel a little bit comfort in saying that we've got a mix, and I spoke about this for about a week now, that the value side of things are working way back last night. In fact, that's a good example. The spy last night was down about six points. The spy, that is, the S&P fund. That's the S&P spider fund. The SPYV, the value, was, in fact, most of the night, it was just unchanged, down four, five ticks, and yet it is down 17 pennies at 41.68, down 0.36, and the S&P is down 1.1%. So that's what I've been talking about. We spoke about the same thing, the difference between the IWM, which is trading down 16 cents right now, 201.21, and the IWN also came and got badly hit, but on a relative basis, look, it's up now 18 cents at 1.5698. I think that's telling us a lot. If you look at the XLP, I mentioned this today, in my opening call newsletter, the S&P Select staples is holding very well at the upper range. It should still go to the 78 area was about the high. It should still go to a leg D in the weekly chart. This is really interesting. This is very important because for subscribers, investors, money fund, it doesn't matter where you are. You're looking to see where can I put my money? If I built up a cash position, I've been doing about a cash position for a very long time now, building it up. For months I've been saying that. We just broke out in the E-mini now, it's only down 47. That's a lot, let me tell you, but it's trying to move higher highs and higher lows, and that makes the 45.21 area really important support. Let's go back to our story here. I don't want to waste time on the near term. When we're looking at the big picture, I want to say that within the context of the market, it is really unusual to have seen markets at all-time highs just recently at the same time that the staples are at all-time highs. When people say it's different this time and then others roll their eyes, we always hear that it is different this time. How can you have the TLT-1s not become a safe haven for markets that have been smashed to the downside or stocks that have been smashed to the downside? It's really unusual to see this, and that says to me in the bigger picture, the yields are unable to decline. They're at the higher level. Here's the TNX at 1.8% up 65.65, and 18.31 is up 0.065. What we're looking at is in the higher level, look what's happened. It's rising in price. The MACD is kind of weak. Circassus is very weak at 49%, but price is the arbiter of a trend. Remember that. You can look at all the technicals you want. You have to be putting it together with are there higher highs and preferably higher lows? This doesn't have to be, but you don't want to break the major low. Are there higher highs or are there lower lows and lower highs? That's your trend. Just to put it, it looks like a head and shoulders. This is on the left side. You've got your left shoulder. This is the high of the 10th of January, 22. Then it makes a higher high of, I'm giving you the numbers that are written, 18.74, of course, it's 1.874. 18.74 at peak E on the 19th, pulls back down to the 17th, low 17th, has a big rally, and that rally takes you to on the 22nd, 26. 18.57, and now it's gone sideways. Now, I always say, a head and shoulders pattern, just one of my least favorite. I have other ways of using this as a technique. I don't dismiss it. I'm just saying, no, it's one of my least favorite because of the time you recognize it's breaking the neckline. It's kind of too late. Both of them have been done. So I'm just saying that this, I prefer to think this is the oval pattern within a range. If it takes out 1.7 on a closing basis, or 17 in this case, that's a failure pattern that should go lower, that means yields go lower, bonds go higher, and if it takes out decisively and gets into the 19th any time in February, that says watch out, because that's extended leg C in the monthly chart, and that whole area that's my target of 1.949, 19.49, back in December of 2019, so over two years ago, that becomes the target. And if there's a break above it, I think we're looking at a market that's going to say, uh-oh, much higher yields, inflation based on the DBA, the DBA which is the DBA good culture fund, up two cents today at 20.44. And yet at the same time, I keep looking at this and I say, why is the IAI, our IAI, actually has broke a deal at ETF, which we've been long since 24th of March of 2020, having taken lots of little bits, but still have a nice core position. And 1.949, why is that working so well? Had a question about Goldman Sachs, remember now we've just moved from the XLF to all the way through to Goldman Sachs. And the question was, is it a good time to buy Goldman Sachs? I said, yeah, I think it's holding well, you've got to have a very tight stop, but my favorite in that particular sector is Schwab, which we did have and don't have right now, and it's breaking this resistance right now, it's up 84 cents at 91.20. This is telling me that their public is just, they've taken a hit, but they have money, they have taken some money, and that they are buying stocks. This is my interpretation. I have no proof, probably I should ask someone like Kevin Hanks, but he's not going to tell me because it would be part of the TV Ameritrade that would mention those things, and rightfully so, because it would be a conflict. But I'm thinking that the public is here. They are playing the market. They've decided this is the place to be. Even if we get hurt, it's the place along the term. It's kind of my interpretation. I'll be back in a moment if we didn't look at the SMHs, which is the semiconductor index. Okay, back quite nicely, only down 4279. I think they're going to struggle for a while, but they're holding quite nicely here. I'll be back in a moment. You having fun trading the markets, but having trouble finding like-minded individuals to discuss your trading and investment ideas with? Become an Apex creditor in the trading markets and join the Tiger's Den Trading Room only at tfnn.com. 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Individual companies are going to do nicely in this little phase right here. But on the whole, I think that once we get to the 289, 291 area, that's the big test of follow-through strength. Can they do that? Now, let's just have a look at the e-mini because I think that we should have a little bit more of a rally. Yep, there we are. So that is e... It's either a chat wave or instant restart. So it's either eF or f slash b going to c. I'm going to call it... I'm going to be as conservative as possible right now called as f slash b. Maybe on a Friday, tomorrow's Friday. Maybe tomorrow I'll spend time. We'll actually do this live as if it was a trading session just so we can go through different techniques in the chat wave. So this is going to g slash c. It looks like a c right now, but I've got to be careful because the MACD is just starting to lose a little energy here and you've got to turn around on balance volume. All right, we'll be back for a moment. Let's go on. Now, this is what I wanted to show you. With the questions that came in, let me quickly go through the questions. In the den as well. Almost the same question. Where was I? So earlier on, WFC. This is Wells Fargo. This is one of the whole banking sector. Look, Wells Fargo. Since the low that was made on the 24th, it's working its way high. This is still a gray b. It looks blue because it is blue. I'll make it gray because you need to know that it's just... It's a counter trend rally at this particular point. In a V-shaped pattern. Doing very nicely as long as the yields are going higher. It should help... Not be the only thing, but it should help Wells Fargo. Leg D in the monthly chart. Peak D in the weekly chart. Peak D in the dead. You're 58.87 on the 14th of January. Pulls back to the 51. Seven points. Now it's coming back nicely. I suspect that this rally, the big test will be... I actually wrote it down. How many stocks have made these double tops and then pulled back within pennies? Let me just go to... I wrote down one that I was just looking at the other day. Met. This is MetLife. Look how well met the... Where did it go? It was this... What I wanted to say is... Oh, did I write that in? MetLife? Oh, it was this particular hide that I was looking at right here. Look at this. The monthly chart goes on in May of 2021. Goes to 67.68. Pulls back pretty sharply down to the 55. So, yeah, 30 points is 20% correction. And then what does it come back to? It comes back to 66.86. And then it pulls back again. We've seen these double tops. And what happened to the shallower, the double top, the greater the chances of a retest. And yeah, you've got your retest. MetLife. And this is an area that I mentioned on my sadded overview for subscribers. How some of these insurance companies, different kinds of insurance, but basically the kind of insurance companies have had these done very well and continue to do very well. MenuLife. MFC. Thank you. MFC. I was going to look at yeah, same pattern. Look at this. MFC came back nicely at 21. I've done just 14 cents today. ABC, PC and the monthly chart. It should go to D, it should still go to the 22 level. A lot of them, one that I was particularly interested in was now, I can't remember the name. So it's MAC, MT, CB, checkout CB, I'll check out CB. Oh yeah, CHUB Corporation. Look at that, all-time high. And that's what I'm seeing. This is a bifurcated, it's actually a bifurcated market because you have, within the tax sector, you just have some things that are holding really well. Others are just collapsing. Within the financials, you've got some stocks like we still have Bank of America, a long position from 31, it's at 47. You went all the way to 50.08. These things are holding pretty nicely considering what's going on. Let's see where Facebook is now. They're biased. Yeah, let's come back to near the high of the day. It's down only 75 points down 23. It had a low of 237.07. I wish it was a round number low. Tomorrow I'll spend time on talking about gap downs, what I expect, what's good, if it takes out the low of the bar of the gap. In other words, if it goes, tomorrow if it goes under 237.07, especially if it closes under 237.07, that's going to be very poor action. But if it happens to close inside the gap, what a huge gap from the 318-ish area down to the days of 248. Oh, round there's your round number. Remember, we always look for the round numbers on hysterical days. So if 248 is taken out on a closing basis, especially today, that'll be a better sign. Anyway, we'll talk about that tomorrow. In the meantime, could I post CLF? Yes, I can get to the questions. Now I haven't finished. I've got the gold, right? CLF, very nice action. 19.20, up 33 cents. Cleveland Cliffs, this is almost one that I wanted to include today in our list. I just needed to be very careful. That's all. So, yeah, it's acting very nicely. Counter-turn rally, because that rectangle formation is going to form a huge at 20.34. You'd love it to go from 1920-2034 up a 1-point gain, 5% gain, gives you a little bit of room. But that's what I'm looking at. Looking out in 2022, I suspect the CLF Cleveland Cliffs flat-roll steel and iron ore pellets will make an all-time high above the 26s into the 27s. Prediction, let's see what happens. All right, you reloaded at 16 fabulous. That's great. Congratulations. Question I had about CF, which is CF industries holding hydrogen, etc. The stalling pattern right now, you remember someone that emailed me to say what do I do? I've been lightening up a little bit. I'm just saying, and I'd say yesterday I wouldn't do too much lightening up. I think this is in the right area. I think it's doing products, fertilizers, clean energy, emissions, all sorts of things like that. I like this. And CF is a symbol down 78 cents, a 70-78 made a new recovery high. Was that an all-time high yesterday? Just under 76. I'm still calling this a B. It could give it an alternate count, F slash B. I just don't see it right now. MACD's rising stochastics at 85% on balance volume says, yeah, but needs a little bit of a pullback and a tad overboard. I like it. Weekly chart is improving. Monthly chart looks good. So, yeah, I do like CF. We didn't have it. We're going to have it right now. CF added to fund strats by this. Okay, good. XBI question about the XBI. What was the question? XBI is balancing. You know, the XBI, the whole building area, this is S&P. Oh, sorry, XBI is the biotech area. XBI, I spoke about this the other day. This is go to the IBB should have the same pattern pretty much. Yep, it does. So, the IBB as they biotech ETF, they're both actually moving, sometimes they're going different percentage gains or losses, but yeah, they're acting very much together. I think right at this particular moment, I think the biotech area, the breather that it's taken from mid January to this, this is the last big breather, says that now you have to make just a little bit, have to pull some bases. Yeah. Despite the S&P insurance, you have to pull. Okay. Yeah. Yeah. I'll be back in a moment. Are you in the market for buying or selling real estate in the Bay Area, including the surrounding St. Petersburg, Tampa and Clearwater markets? Tiger Real Estate LLC is a firm that has extensive experience in the Tampa Bay Area. 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I guess the young person was where's it going to? the way I'm looking at it right now if the MACD can cost positive that'll give another boost and if the bonds remain low like this it should try if it can hold about 5683 touch 5735 there's a good chance to try for the 58.87 The only reason why I brought the picture of the double top end was because we've seen it so many times and then they stall. And that's what I would say that if Wells Fargo, it's another two points, actually about two and a half points, that's a lot for a stock like Wells Fargo. But if it's able to do that, if it's able to touch the 57s, then I think that 58, 87 will be the sign that says, are we now in this counter trade? I'm calling it for now a counter-trend bounce. I don't see any reason why not to call it a counter-trend bounce in the general market. But it's very selective. That means that they can go up and I put this look, keep your eye on the left side chart. Doesn't this look exactly like the rally? This is just the left side chart. The rally, the 50% or slightly more from the 4170 on the XLF high of the 13th out to the 36.82, 24th of January low. And yeah, so this is another thing. So by Tuesday of this coming week, I've got to give it a few days. If it can hold the XLF, can hold 39, 37, that's comparable to the same thing in Wells Fargo, about 1%, 2% pullback. And if we can keep going higher, that's going to be very important. But if the direct angle formation in the weekly chart says, that has the look of a potential head and shoulders coming up. And I'll be watching to see what happens at 40.80. If it gets there in the XLF and that'll be Wells Fargo would be comparable. Gee, if it gets to on a weekly basis, there's nothing on the left side. So this is a little more open. So as I say, 57.10, can it go above that is a big question. Here we go to the question of in the den. Hey, Agilent, well, what was it? Would you buy Agilent at these levels in a peak A? This is a peak A, great peak A because it's a retracement. Well, we've been long since right here. Let's just go through this. We've been long. Sorry, we're long at 70.69, back on the 3rd of April, 2020. We've taken lots a little bit all the way to about a 100% gain. And I've tried to keep a core position, even though I plummeted from 179 down to 130.40 points. I mean, that's 23%. That's a big turnaround. But I've said a reason why I want to keep it for subscribers is if it can hold this week, I might consider it an add to. And then new subscribers can get in because it's in the Agilent technologies, in the scientific solutions for labs and businesses. It better have a decent bounce because it's got the one to one already to the downside. So I'm just going to say at 142, the only way I would do this if this is brand new to you, just put your foot in the door at 142.85 just to get a feel for your own portfolio risk and all that. And I would even there have a two point stop. I would not want to break under 140.85. 140.30 is the ninth period exponential moving average support. It's still a little early. I want to see leg B, or even if it's A, but I prefer if it's B, have one decent pullback and then add another leg, going to test the 147 level of the 200 period moving average, which it did once before and then it broke down. So that's key to me. So you could go in here, 142. If it manages to go one penny above the high of yesterday at 144.76, just add another small little position and you try to build up a position. But the weekly chart says, wow, there's a lot of work to be done. And the monthly chart says it has to look more like a D than a B, but I have to call it a B for now. And that's almost like the S and P in a way. We'll see. So a question came up. All right. That's it. Question and keys. So keys is another one that we were looking at a long time ago. Someone had mentioned it and I said, wow, oh, oh, someone in the den said he works for the company that does the same as Agilent. It's called keys or the keys, key, key site, tech does the same thing. But I didn't quite like the chart as much as I like to Agilent. It's pretty much the same thing, but this rebound isn't even close. So this is the one that I'd avoid that I prefer just nibbling at Agilent. That question is, oh, oh, they report earnings in February. Both A and keys were reported in February. I'd buy both. Okay. Thank you. That's 20 people in the den. I'm just saying I still want to be a little cautious in this market. Remember, it's really the market environment that you've got to also deal with. Okay. Let's go on. We're looking at another question came in. Did I get that? Did I get that? Oh. Oh. So yeah, a statement came in, actually, it's a quote from the New York Times sent to me. I don't usually get into this because this is a really part of the political side, but this is something that I've discussed over the years periodically. New York Times front page, gerrymandering by New York Democrats may flip three house seats. So what I've said is that gerrymandering is in the eyes of the beholder. If you state out loud that it's for this particular purpose and because of this purpose, you can't even question it, then of course it's right, but the opposing person will say, wait, that's called gerrymandering. So we've seen it here in Boston under different auspices. They had a whole bunch of changes made and they said it was for the people. That was gerrymandering. I'm just talking about the term. I'm not talking about whether it's right or wrong. I haven't gone into that depth. I'm going to say, to me, I've watched gerrymandering since I've been in the United States, always a fascinating thing. The term itself is very fascinating, but in the meantime, back at the ranch, yeah, it happens. It just depends on which side you're on because it won't be called that by the people that are doing it. They're doing something righteous. So whatever it is, I just want to mention that and then someone said, market, today's market is a lacking volume, which is my book and my book is not signaling any bottom. What's happening in Facebook? It's mind-boggling. Just who is doing all this selling? Let me just speak to that just for a moment. And the reason why I'm saying you've got to be very selective and very cautious. In other words, for positions that we want to buy now at this particular point, I'm saying we need to come back down to our level so we can have a good cushion. I think that's a safer way to play things. I want to go through a bunch of questions that I got. Can I do that? Can I do Thursday morning? Yeah. Yeah. Okay. I'll do that right now. So Amazon is down 207-2804. Wait, did Amazon come out with the dollar, please? It's coming up. That was a question earlier on. Let me do that before I forget that. Look, the dollar was having a bit of a bounce today. Now it's down 51 ticks at 95.46. That is underneath the rectangle low. Why isn't gold up? Have I not done all my numbers? Yeah. Why isn't gold up? Comparably. It doesn't have to be the same proportion, but comparably in counterpoint moving up as dollar comes back. That's what I'm saying. When people say it's different this time and then roll their eyes, yes it is different this time. Is the dollar getting smashed like that? The dollar has been long since 1907, from April 2018. That is really very interesting. The gold is down 6 so far, it's now 25 cents at 375. Sharpening your skills as an investor is like getting better at playing a musical instrument. You have to practice, sure, but you also need excellent instruction from experts at TFNN. 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Oh, that is, I didn't think that. Let me just see. Yeah, diamonds, the 353 calendar calls for tomorrow. So what I'd said is if the diamonds can hold above 351.00 into the 2pm eastern time, one o'clock to 2pm hour, and actually get to the 354.45 level. I want it later. I don't want it earlier. I don't want it now. I'd prefer to see it later. I think then the Dow will show that it has a little bit of energy left. And what I would say is if it rallies into the close, take as much as off as you can, and then tomorrow will just be a gamble. But I would try to do that today because tomorrow, a lot of sorting out by the end of the day is going to take place. Where is Facebook? Has it come back? Are there other stocks? How's the ARKK, ETF handling this whole thing? Where is it? What's coming back? And what's not? So if you can do it all today, do it today and then end this jobs number tomorrow. So I would try to do that today and maybe leave a couple if you can for tomorrow. But I know you usually get quite a bunch. So and 351, if it goes under 351, you got to start being a little careful. So as it stands right now, that's what I'm looking at. So let me do this because Larry, I think Larry has a problem with his throat today with his voice. So all right, we'll see how we can handle that over the next few minutes. I think it'll be a replay of Tommy's show, it was a great show earlier on. So let's just make this as clear as possible. The VIX index, this will be very selective of you talking about having a nice cash position over the last weeks and weeks and weeks I've been saying that, I still think that's a good idea. And be selective in your buying. And this is a VIX index, it's going back, it's going to get, if the voluntary index goes under 251, a little like this off and it goes under 22, this vlog just bounced very nice. That's pretty neat. Have fun today and check out my VIX index.