 Hello and welcome to the non-farm payrolls webinar with myself David Madden hosted by CMC Marcus Today's date is Friday the 8th of December And the time has just gone 115 p.m. UK time as always with the webinars The first thing I'll do is leave the risk warning on screen for you to have a read through and what we've been doing is Leave the risk warning on screen. You guys have a read through it. It's all very straightforward If you've been to our webinars before it's a it's a it's very it's common practice If it essentially states anything that is stated and or discussed in this webinar is just purely my own personal opinion on my own views It's not to be construed as explicit investment or trading advice But we will be obviously having a kind of a chat about what's going on in the markets. It's an interactive webinar So we will have that feedback from yourselves If you just want to continue on reading through the slides in with the usual one down I'll talk about what's going on in your economy talk about the expectations for the webinar talk about what's going on in the The markets in general when the numbers come out a quarter and a half past the hour We will discuss all the numbers and see how they're impacting the markets I'll take a look at some of the markets which you could see attention moves on on the back of the results So this is the last slide. I'll just leave up there in front of you So the quick read of that and we can progress on to the webinar itself So now that we've gotten ash with the actual The risk warning all the way we can actually focus on the actual interesting bit was actually the non-famperals figure itself The figures are in about in about 12 or 13 minutes time And let's go on the training platform to the market pulse tab and the fourth option down is the market calendar This gives us a breakdown. This is our CMC markets economy calendar It gives a breakdown what we can expect in terms of the economic events for the economic events for the day for the days By ahead of us. So looking around here on a calendar at the economic calendar strong now to half one Looking at the at the on the non-famperals figure We can see here that we're expecting 200,000 jobs to be created in the month of November This is the forecast here that the the previous months of a reading of the October figure came in at 261,000 so bearing in mind Is it you consider it be a decent size drop-off? In if we get to we get 200,000 or north of 200,000 but still US economists how stated that the United States economy needs to be adding about 200,000 jobs every consistent on average consistently every single month for the for the US economy to keep it growing at the rate it has been growing at Also in the report We do have we do have the unemployment data coming out as well The whole problem with rate is tipped to come in at four four point one percent remain unchanged from the previous October reading of four point one percent As always with the non-famperals the devil is actually in the detail I started in city about ten years ago and the multiple times I've seen the the headline figure is the main figure here either coming above or below Expectations and the market moves one way and Then the other details can mean be it revision revisions to previous months non-famperals Or perhaps a change in the unemployment rate or even which you come on to in a moment's time The earnings figures can actually skew or kind of get a graph to the altar How the overall job report is viewed and obviously it's called non-famperals. So that's a number that everyone looks out for But we may even see it again today because we often do Whereby the headline figure comes in one way and the other figures about the other figures I mean the revisions the unemployment and the earnings figures come in a different way and Speaking of earnings on a multiple month basis average earnings in the United States is expected to tick up by zero point three percent That compares with zero growth in from the from the From the November rating and all the year on year on an annual basis Even though we don't have the forecast inserted here another news news terminal predicts the forecast their consensus is to be an increase of two point five percent and that compares with the Previous rating of two point four percent. So we are expecting a tick up in both The monthly and the yearly the year-on-year average earnings figures and why is earnings important? The the headline unemployment rate four point one percent at multi-year lows multi decade multi decade lows In the United States it's something American politicians are very proud of The talk about the headline figure, but if you give a delve further into that we have the rate of which Up job the job the rate of which jobs creation is rising in the United States is vastly outpacing earnings growth And we have this type urgent provide people are actually in jobs, which is actually is obviously good people People who are employed can't spend more money hence driving on the economy But one of the issues is that wage growth in the United States has been plateauing a bit We have seen a small bit of a tick up in the last few months But by and large of the last few years it's been a bit of the slug aside our people don't see a decent pick up any in Income therefore they don't they're in there's supposedly come what they've left to spend kind of you know luxury items Or not not essential items what I call that Increases and what you want to see is a scenario where by Americans are actually it not only in job But you also want to see real growth So you do want to see growth pick up on top of that. You know that will Give a better chance of actually having a proper and sustained recovery because some of these jobs have to be low-income jobs It can be casual jobs. It can be jobs, which are part of time. They can be very different contract jobs Obviously, they're not an agriculture. That's why it's called not farm payrolls in the report, but bearing in mind You do want to see a decent rise in average earnings To be more confident that the better reserve are going to continue down their path of monetary tightening And speaking about of the Federal Reserve, we do have the we do have the Federal Reserve update next week It's widely expected to have an increase in the interest rates by 0.25 percent to 1.5 percent Obviously, we're going to have the press conference that one, but that will run alongside that as well That's gonna be that's gonna be the highlight of next week's session seeing as the Markets have been heavily pricing in for a long time now the rate the rate hike of 0.25 percent next week So the commentary and that goes along with the press conference next year Is going to be it's going to what's going to be in play Speaking of the Federal Reserve Even though as always the press conference is going to be quite important it's also worth noting that in 2018 at the end of 2017 a comparison with the middle of 2018 The Federal Reserve make-up is going to be quite different. It's going to be quite different We've a number of new members coming in with more members to join the Federal Reserve as well So the make-up of the Federal Reserve is going to be a bit is Something of an unknown for the time being and if it's something of an unknown the markets may err on the side of caution and actually do you think you could mainly see On say on the three interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve in 2018 whereas more kind of bullish Analysts and economists might be predicting four rate hikes from the Federal Reserve in 2018 But once again, it's an unknown quantity seeing as we've had We've had a couple of new appointments and we have more to come But if you look at the economic data we've had on the last of the United States in the past few weeks It has been broadly speaking quite positive. Just just Yesterday, we have the initial job as came figures, which actually fell slightly from 240,000 240,000 so 238,000 down to 236,000 Not ever so slightly better than expected on Wednesday. We had the ADP 500 employment report which came out and if you look at the if you look at the That that figure it came in at 190,000 jobs were created broadly in line with expectations But it was a reasonable decline on the previous month's rating of 235,000 jobs that were created So it's nothing that would really kind of Set the market on fire But it's fairly solid numbers if you get somewhere in around the 200,000 mark that will be respectable And to mention at the top of the webinar economists broadly Believe that the United States continues the ads of 200,000 jobs to the payrolls every single month that should keep the economy moving along nicely But I also I also I also feel The need to have a decent pickup in wage growth as well to actually accompany that It's not putting half the people in jobs for the sake of jobs when actually the the The recovery is only going to go go so far if wage growth isn't actually very decent as well But looking beyond The actual employment and jobs rate of data out of the United States. We've recently seen That the pce figure the core pce figure private Private consumption and expenditure, which is the riches that kind of barometer the Fed It came in on a new basis at 1.4 percent remained unchanged So it's it's it's not Up up whereas whereas it like it but this is actually moving in the right direction Next week we will be natural the headline cpi numbers coming out from the u.s And they're on a new basis. It's expected to remain unchanged at 2 percent Going back to the pce comment We did see a decent pick up and most recent rating of it and the actual private income private income picked up by 0.2 percent So that was actually something that that actually worked noting seeing as we're keeping an eye out for the average earning figures That are coming out in about five minutes time looking at looking at other aspects of the united states the United States economy in terms of economic indicators New home sales pending home sales and the conference for consumer confidence figures Which all come out in the last few weeks are all quite strong We had very respectable durable goods figures and also and also ism manufacturing numbers out of the united states In recent weeks as well. So by and large take a look at my picture for the United States is looking fairly decent We have four minutes left On the on the clock as we're let's take a look at them Let's have a quick discussion before the numbers come out about other Other news what's been going on very quickly in the financial markets. So the big news in the past in the past Say 12 or 15 hours has a core has been trees in may Turning around and getting a deal with the Brussels and the EU in relation to the Stage one as it's as it's called of the brexit negotiations Between kind of broadly sticking deciding in the force bill from exiting the EU and also the Irish border situation As also was also seen to actually have come to some sort of agreement Which allows which allows the United Kingdom government to actually kind of progress on the next stage of the negotiations Which of course is it's a trade state? That of course is going to be that is going to be really want to watch because the UK government Is very keen on getting a free trade agreement with the EU once at least the EU So that's been the big news. What we saw was there were reports last There were reports late last the last evening late last night that the EU was That the Deal was going to be on the cards by this morning and lo and behold it was so we did see a push higher in the pound Last night But it would appear that the pound has actually given up some of those gains particularly against the US dollar The pound was in was in fairly decent stead this morning before the figures actually came out. Sorry about 7 a.m. before the um Just after the announcement was released But as we can see you're looking at a daily chart you can see how much how much this is This is the move here at the very early hours of the Friday morning But the pound has been sliding ever since then also bearing in mind We have had a fairly strong US dollar in the recent couple of weeks this year at the dollar index I'll look at it now on a smaller chart. It's the forward chart. I'm looking at and as you can see The broad thrust of the kind of the dollar index has been to the upside has been to the upside And especially from late November onwards For the last week or 10 days, you've seen a fairly clear and concise push higher in the US dollar As I mentioned, you've got non-farm payroll. Obviously, we have the Fed figures non-farm payroll has dropped in two minutes by the way But but seeing as economic indicators are the next house out being pushed out be moving right direction It's looking likely that the Fed at the united states government is going to introduce the tax reforms Which would be very much more pro-business and I've been ticked to a health US dollar And on top of that we do a Fed meeting next week So this broad kind of push higher in the green back of the last few trading sessions has of course Dented the British paradise you can see here for looking at an hourly chart We can see exactly what's done over the past 24 hours and it's been very clear to the upside In terms of the movement of the US dollar It's less than one minute now to the to the job as claims figures. I'll just open up the economic calendar And we'll see what the numbers are going to come in as I suspect we're going to get something in around the region of around 220 Is where I would potentially going to see the reports coming in if you have any kind of comments or any kind of estimates You want to type in the box yourself feel free to do so This kind of counting down also in other political news Martin Schultz the head of the stp the social democrat party in Germany I suggested he's open to potential coalition talks with Angela Merkel And on the back of that we're getting some figures in now 228 was in non-farm payroll figure And also it is worth pointing out The figure came in at 228,000 ahead of the estimate which was 200 200,000 bearing in mind It was revised the previous month's number, which was 261,000 was revised lower to 244,000. So the positive headline we have had our Irritation lower the previous month's number. So in a way sort of counts each other out, but I would say overall it's net positive Unemployment right remained a whole 21% bang in line with market expectations. Let's have a quick look through at the other details here as well I'm looking now at the average earnings Has this it's failed to populate so far just stay with me one second My role is terminal on a different screen. I'll just have a quick look and bleed out the figures from there It's been one second So average earnings managed to cook on a on a year on year basis ticked higher to 2.5 percent In line with the expectations that I've seen a different economic calendar on a month on month basis They grew by 0.2 percent But bear in mind they were expected to increase by 0.3 percent We've also seen actually some revisions To the average earnings figure on the year on year basis average earnings The previous report was 2.4 percent Today's report came out 2.5 percent and but the previous report was revised down to 2.3 percent Adding to that the previous month-on-month figure for average earnings was 0.0 percent It's not being revised lower to negative 0.1 percent and on top of that Today's month-on-month figure came in at 0.2 percent lower than expected 0.3 percent So it's very kind of mixed signals there on the average earnings figures We've had a revisions. We have had a tick up on the on the month But also a revision to the other month's number So sort of a mixed bag on that front at the overall it seemed it seems to have been A middle of the road a fairly decent Nothing out nothing outstanding in terms of the actual economic indicator in terms of the actual performance itself I'll have a quick look now at the US dollar index Yeah, I'll have a quick quick look now at the dollar index And then I'm leaving on to a couple of currency pairs All right, what we can see here is the first reaction was negative On the looking at the dollar index alone moved it sharp moved to the downside on the dollar index As you can see here some of it say So far we haven't As the numbers have not gone down well. I'll have a quick look now at what's going on in the euro dollar Let's change it up. No We're gonna find the chart So the euro has made a fairly decent move to the upside on the back of that bearing in mind We were just looking at the dollar index and the dollar of the euro isn't quite a substantial waiting within the dollar index So keep in mind that the two are fairly correlated as there's a lot of cross cross contingencies in both That is a That is a very decisive move to the upside in the US dollar versus the The euro versus the US dollar as you can see here. I'll take a look now I think a big picture chart We have seen a fair bit of kind of range bound trading and sort of uncertainty in the euro versus the US dollar And over the last few weeks It managed after having a fairly decent sell off from september down to november We pushed higher here took off the october highs the november high took off the october highs But we have been sliding back now And we're in around the fifthly moving average which comes to play in around 1755 So we're in around that level at the time being If you could manage to hold above the fifthly moving average that could put us instead back to potentially November high of 1961 and as I mentioned already taking a look at even smaller data Lower data chart did they consider move to the upside initially? On the euro versus the US dollar I'll have a look now at the pound versus the US dollar I've got a smaller much tighter time frame Very similar situation. So a lot of that setting pressure this morning on Well, the gains that were made on the back of the political announcement only lasted a few hours those games managed to reverse themselves traders in high anticipation of a strong number of a strong jobs report had a Certificately buy the dollar on the run up to this number and we're now seeing a reversal of the actual position Taking a look now at the pound versus the US dollar It's even though we have seen a we have seen a push higher in the last few minutes The big picture for the last number of months for the British pound versus the US dollar has been very much to the upside It's this trend line here from the loads of loads of march connecting the loads of April So a few difficult load here in November both were very much well off and well above the um The trend line support here while we remain north of the trend line support and also Looking at metrics in around like for example the fifth of the moving average in around the kind of 132 50 region I suspect the outlook for the pound is going to remain positive against the US dollar This jobs report in my opinion is sort of a kind of a B a kind of a B minus or so It's a very kind of average, you know average report the headline figure Was good at top expectations. We had a previous vision to the October report all in employment came in at 4.1 So no, we're going to create surprise there. We had some mixed numbers on the average earnings And if anything It's off in a weird way It's often more important to give credence to the to the revision because the revisions revisions can often be the final Say rather than just the headline figure because even though we did see a decent We did see a respectable year on year growth bigger for average earnings the previous most number of was revised lower I'll have a look now and see um Let's see how the the rest futures I should have looked now to see how gold is reacting to that because gold Has obviously has tends to have an inverse relationship between the price of uh of gold and also the us dollar So we saw here is gold Obviously a lot of volatility When the number was released, but as you can see here This is this could be what I was just talking about how everyone was looking at the headline number Everyone was focusing on 200,000 mark came in at 228,000 We saw a move to so initially Kind of a large kind of spike to the upside and then down again on gold. So there may have been a suspicion There may have been a kind of a skewing of the numbers that seeing the 200 280,000 See 128,000 jobs been added may have sent gold initially lower And then the market actually digested and realized is that hold on is actually not as strong as the jobs report as the actual Headlines figures was let on. So you're seeing a lot of consolidation Another kind of uncertainty when it comes to gold on the back of those figures that report. So We're now trading a bit lower because it's kind of sunk in that the the headline figure was better than expected But at the same time We did see some some mixed numbers and mixed data coming out in terms of average earnings. So on my view we could see dare I say Quite an uninteresting afternoon trading because it's sort of there's something in this report for everyone it isn't in a particularly clear direction, whether it's an overly good report and we're And things things are adding to the hawker sentiment in the United States or it isn't a particularly A weak report that would suggest is uh, there's problems in the u.s. economy. It's somewhere in between I take a look now. I see how the u.s. Index futures are Are reacting to the numbers Looking at a very one minute chart here just have to see here. So that so it was very clear and obvious The numbers came out here at the at this time frame As you can see the overall kind of trend has been to the upside in the Dow Jones it would appear that I think that the Dow futures are clearly happy with this with this report Even though in my opinion, it's a fairly decent report nothing to you get overly excited about There's some good numbers in there. There's some there's disappointing revisions But what we can see in this reaction is positive and if you take a look at how the Dow is actually performed On a wider basis. It's been very much to the upside. We can see here. This is on a Four-hourly chart it's been very much a classic example of higher highs and higher lows It is a textbook example of a upward trend higher highs higher lows higher high Mark the Dow Jones has been Instead of performance in the last number of last number of months It would appear that were that the the chart has given no indications that that this Market rally is coming to an end so far So if you do happen to see any pullbacks in the Dow Jones We could see some new from fresh buyers enter the fold seeing as buying on the dip has been a proper strategy For the last number of months. So if you do see any moves lower in the Dow We could be looking heading back down towards yesterday's low in around the just north of 24,000 region But overall I would say it's a fairly retrospective report And if you do kind of do push higher The first big devil to watch out for would be the recent record high of just north of 24,500 I love looking at the S&P Um, I'll be I'll be I'll be I imagine it's going to be a fairly similar move on the S&P 500 I look at a one minute chart to get their reaction. Oh apologies. That was the Dow Jones again Very similar looking chart the market was was was pushing higher into it and certainly post trading in a few minutes 11 minutes trading after the numbers have been released. The uh, it has gone on to session highs So things are absolutely looking quite positive on the market has liked so far has liked the The S&P 500 has liked the jobs report from the united states Very similar to the to the Dow Jones that has been a clear and concise offer a trend buying on the dips has been the kind of popular strategy over the last number of months when it comes to the um When it comes to the S&P 500 So if you do happen to see any kind of pullbacks, we may find some support in around the lows of yesterday in around the 2626 level or maybe even down as low as Wednesday as low as 2620 But as I mentioned, even if you see all that you could see a fresh fire step in Seeing as the kind of popular strategy for the last number of weeks and months has been buying on the dip So if you do move to the upside Looking to kind of target the the recent record high 2665 and then beyond that shares if you look towards the big numbers like 2670 80 90 and then 2700 itself Kind of quick look now at the Nasdaq 100 before we wrap things up Towards the end of uh in the last In early december, we did see a sort of a sell-off in us tech stocks. It was almost like the the tech stocks It's almost like the tech stocks were lightning behind the traditional industrial stocks But we have seen the the gap now between the tech 100 and the Nasdaq 100 and the and the dow Jones and the S&P Very similar situation here. The market was a bit uncertain on the on the roll-up choke But since the numbers have come out, we have actually had a decent jump higher on the Nasdaq 100 We are looking at session highs for today in terms of the the move that we're seeing And it is a once again like like the other major u.s. Industries a classic example of the markets of the markets Trading higher highs and higher lows. So as we can see here We could be looking at heading back north of 6400 for the Nasdaq 100 And then be actually take out that level the next big psychological number to look for beyond that will be 6500 So on and so forth I'll just do a quick look now and see how the FTSE 100 has reacted to the u.s. Numbers given that we have seen some weakness in the British pound that has assisted The weakness in British British pound versus the u.s. Dollar and at the gains at the Palmaid against you this morning Have been have been eroding so take a look now and see how the u.s. How the FTSE 100 reacted not to December 12 the markets Rally rallied into the number a bit of a sell-off just ahead of the number itself better profit taking Traders squaring up their position before the number comes out and lo and behold that the move post the numbers are Broadly in line what we've seen on the wall street on the on the Dow Jones the S&P 500 and of course the nasdaq 100 So It does appear at the FTSE 100. It has a has also welcomed the numbers we've seen from the United States Dollar card yet. Sure. I'll do the dollar cut down a second and then for that We look to wrap it up because then it's now coming to quarter to the hour Looking at the looking at the the chart for the FTSE 100. This is the highest level We're currently treating at the highest level in December even though the week and month is only eight days old It is worth knowing that we are pushing higher on the FTSE 100 I'll take a look now at the daily chart so the FTSE 100 had a fairly It's in a fairly decent pretty obvious downtrend from late from early November the November high failed to take out Take out the all-time high and then ever since then Lower low here lower high lower low pushing higher here now Like I said, we're not we're not currently trading at the high of the month December is only eight days old But still drinking at the high of the month We're approaching approaching towards the tunerly moving average and the turning moving average comes into play at 6,000 sorry 7400 And if you do take out 7400 I have a decisive move north of that We could be looking back towards the late November highs of 7 policies 472 But if you do continue in the downward trend that has been in for the last number of weeks since early November We could be heading heading back down towards the December level 7278 I'll quickly do dollar CAD and dollar yen and Given that we're running out of time that unfortunately will have to be the last few currency periods we look at also in the In the excitement and hysteria of the non-farm payrolls We also had some numbers that came out from Canada and that in the time period. I believe they were housing data so we could really housing starts Which came out a half Sorry, 115 just beforehand and clearly housing starts by the looks of which came in better than expected It was an increase it was higher than the forecast and on top of that is like increase on the previous month and also at the A half past the hour we had the Utility capacity utilization rate which remained fine in line with market expectations and unchanged on the quarter dollar CAD a dollar CAD I'll have a quick look at the one minute chart. You're going to get the initial reaction as you can see here As you can see here market sold off quite heavily bounce back more than clear losses And now it's sold broadly lower Before before the number that she came out itself bearing in mind We did have some numbers out of Canada which came in that unexpected Not too long before the jobless claims figures come out of the United States And then of course adding to that we then had a mixed report broadly good, but mixed report often earlier about white home about So so the the the movement we've seen it on the dollar CAD in the last week has been fairly It's been fairly range bound. It's found it's very difficult to get north of the 120 129 region And at the same time it's usually found support in around this area here I know the broker at 126 66, I know it obviously appears to that level here, but it didn't go far too far below So it appeared to be range bound for the time being And we're near the upper end of the range but as you can see that we're slightly lower since the non-torn payrolls come out. So if your trader is interested in range bound trading strategies We could be looking at a scenario whereby the market if it fails to get north of 129 We could be heading back down towards the lower end of the range in around the kind of 126 66 Or indeed maybe perhaps even down as low as um as the as tuesday is low Which comes into play in at 126 37 So there are the kind of areas you could be looking at obviously if you break north of the of 129 The tuesday moving average at 120 at 129 55 You got to keep an eye on and then if you go beyond that you could be looking to the june low of 131 64 moves to the downside may find support In around the lows the mid the lows of mid of mid october in around the 124 50 region Let's take a look at the dollar yen now before you wrap this up So the dollar yen has take a look now at the Minivan minivan chart So the additional reaction was to the downside and then we saw the mark We saw that we saw the market balance back and then of course move lower again So this is the classic non-torn payrolls kind of market moves one direction the numbers digest And and and then eventually we kind of look to actually get a proper direction out of it So taking a look now at the daily chart, we can see here that after the After the highs of november, we did see a decent sell-off Try to blow the ternary moving average and pushing higher ever since Notice how we have a decent sell-off here. There's a steady increase negative momentum on the MACD histogram and on the MACD indicator And then of course that negative momentum declined then as long positive Confirming that they're going to push higher in the in the extra move of the underlying market the data versus the end So it would appear that the the momentum is with the buyers. The price is pushing higher That's been the trend for the last week or so If you do manage to take out the 113 57 region The next price beyond that keep an eye out for is before 114 and move north of 114 We'll then put but then bring it aside in november high of 114 73 Move to the downside many counters support in rather quickly moving average resistance We call that acceleration in around there that comes into play at 1285 And then south of that heading back down potentially towards the 112 region That's all it from our from our webinar this week. Thank you for tuning in Please bear in mind on on the monday coming up Which is monday the 11th of yes monday the 11th of December i'll be hosting our weekly monday webinar at 12 15. So please feel free to sign in and listen to that Also, there will be recording of this webinar on on the market insight section of our platform That can be found under market polls second option down market insights and i'll also treat it out myself You're very welcome. You're very welcome. Thank you for your kind messages. Uh, that's All for me this week. Thank you for listening. Have a good trading week and good luck