 Now, I will indeed, as Mary trailed out, I will talk a little bit about what the international financial institutions are doing and maybe can do even better to help the situation. But I want to start with a few remarks about how we see the economic situation and being the last speaker, I have the advantage of being able to pick up and draw together a few points that have already been made. Indeed, it is a gloomy picture, as indeed painted by Gorn Svilanovich and Vladimir Iglygorov. I have to say, we do share that gloom at the moment. We try to be optimistic about the region and I remain optimistic about the long-term future. But certainly, if you look at the short term, we had in 2012 negative growth in most countries in the western Balkans. For 2013, we published our new forecast a couple of weeks ago. We don't expect much growth. It's, for most countries, somewhere between 1 and 2%, with the exception of Bosnia-Herzegovina, where we put in 0.1%, so positive, but just barely. And Croatia, which has really been in stagnation or recession for the last four years, we expect this year another decline in GDP minus 0.3%. And in fact, when I talk to my friends in Zagreb, people in the economics and investor community, they think that actually we're being a bit optimistic with that figure. So notwithstanding the great achievement of Croatia on the verge of accession, the economy really is in a weak state. For 2014, we expect a little bit of pickup. But 2014, in economic forecasting terms, is a long way ahead and we could get this completely wrong, as we often do. But we do expect some pickup typically between 2% to 3% growth for most countries, but with a lot of what we call downside risk. And I think even if we do get to, or even 3%, it's well below the potential that this region has. And Goran Selanovich mentioned the relative GDP per capita compared to the EU average. It's for these countries, when you adjust for purchasing power, then Eurostat publishes these estimates regularly. It's between 30% and 40% of the EU average. So these countries should be growing faster. We know from economic theory and from experience that poorer countries should and can grow faster than rich ones provided the right conditions are in place. Now, why has there been no serious recovery from the major crisis that occurred in 2008 and 2009? Well, I think it's a number of factors and some have already been mentioned. One can point to the collapse of foreign direct investment. I think that's been important. One can point to the external weaknesses and the eurozone, which is the main market for most of these countries. That is indeed important as well. One can look at the financial sector. And although the financial sector has managed to hold up fairly well, and I will come back to that in a couple of minutes, we have a trinity of financial sector problems. A trinity being very weak or even negative credit growth. So it's really harder now for businesses to get credit than it used to be. This ongoing process of deleveraging, so basically the foreign subsidiary banks in the region paying back their debts to their parent banks abroad. That's an ongoing process, which again of course feeds into the weak credit growth. And the third part of this trinity is the non-performing loans, which are at fairly frightening levels in some countries. In Serbia, for example, around 20% of all banking loans are non-performing and it's even higher in Albania. So I think these are factors, but we would argue that actually what we have learned over the last few years is that the boom years that Vladimir spoke about in the, say, five to six years before the crisis that they masked a failure to address some serious structural and institutional reforms. So things seem to be going well, but indeed the foundations were not really being put in place at that time for sustainable long-term growth. Now, so one can see this from a variety of indicators and there are all sorts of indicators on the business environment and progress and transition and corruption and competitiveness and so on, some of which we at the EBRD produce, some of which are produced by other institutions, but although they can be confusing taken in total, they do paint a consistent picture of a region that is lagging behind on structural reform. So what we argue is that really it's not, I think, that the region needs a totally new economic model, but the only way forward, if it's to get back to economic growth, is an enhanced focus on structural reforms within a regional context. And I take very much the point Vladimir made at the end about some of the disappointing aspects of regional cooperation, but I think if those problems can be addressed, there could be long-term benefits. Now, coming to the role of international financial institutions, so IFIs, my view, of course I'm not an impartial observer here, I work for one of them, the EBRD, but my view is that IFIs have played an important constructive role in alleviating some of the worst effects in the crisis in the last few years. And it's not just about money and putting money into the region, but although that has been very important, and most of the main institutions, including the EBRD, have stepped up their investments in the region. So the EBRD is very much a counter-cyclical institution. When regions are doing badly, we do more, and when they're doing well, we step back and let others invest. So we have been investing more, and others have been investing more. But it's also, I think, about putting in place some structures that enhance cooperation both within the region and between the region and outside countries and institutions. And let me mention those three initiatives that I think have really helped in the last few years. One is what's called the Vienna Initiative. So the Vienna Initiative was really about making sure that we didn't have a banking crisis in the western Balkans and more widely southeastern Europe and some other countries as well. And it was about ensuring that the major foreign banks that dominate the banking sectors in these countries, that they remained engaged, that they didn't all rush for the exit and pull their money out of the countries, which could have caused a panic. And that was a very important cooperative effort between IFIs like ourselves and the IMF and World Bank and others. Host countries, so in the western Balkans, home countries in Austria, France, Italy, Greece and so on that are home to these big banking groups and regulators in both home and host countries. It worked well and it helped prevent this, it helped prevent a crisis. The second one was the joint action plans that institutions like ourselves, the European Investment Bank and the World Bank came up with, which again were really about showing strong commitment to the region and about promising, pledging major investments into the region. I think that the initial joint action plan in 2009 was a very strong signal and there's a new action plan for all of central and southeastern Europe announced by those three institutions at the end of 2012. And thirdly has already been mentioned the western Balkan investment framework and others around this panel and Mary certainly know intimately how this works and how it has really I think been a very successful cooperative venture in terms of making sure that funding, donor funding, whether it's lending from institutions like the BOD or grant financing from Bellatoros that it goes to the right projects. Now having said all of that I want to finish with a few remarks about how IFIs can maybe work better. I'm speaking of course my personal opinion on these and I think there are three ways in which the way we are involved in the region can be made even more effective. One would be I think even more cohesion than we have already on strategy development and this is an idea that came to me in preparing these notes because it's fresh in my mind from the EBRD annual meeting a couple of weeks ago in Istanbul where we indeed sat down with some of our colleagues from the World Bank and the European Investment Bank and the IFC also which is part of the World Bank to think about what are we doing in each countries and can we really mobilise our timeframes in a consistent way and really come up with a very coherent growth strategy for countries in this part of the world. A second way I think we can do more is to have more rigorous analysis of what really is holding back growth in this region. A more rigorous diagnosis of the obstacles to growth and the constraints because I mentioned earlier some of these cross-country indicators on reforms and business environment and so on but they don't really tell you on a country by country basis what are the key blockages to reform and I think again there's a lot of analytical power in these institutions and it can be deployed maybe more effectively than it has been before and the third way would be to pay more attention to social issues so I take very much it wasn't news to me but I really appreciate what Goran said and Vladimir about the problems of unemployment in the region. It really is indeed a frightening set of figures when you look at the unemployment rates. Possibly some of them are a little bit exaggerated because there's a lot of informal employment and so on which is maybe not captured but notwithstanding that there is indeed a serious jobs problem and as Pavel Dobble who said at the start it's really about jobs growth and reforms and jobs I think rightly being the first of that trinity being mentioned. So I think IFI's and here the EBRD we are doing some serious thinking about how we can build analysis of social issues to do with things like youth unemployment to do with things like gender differences as one into our analysis of projects and indeed this is becoming an increasingly important part of our overall strategy. So in conclusion I don't want to end on that very gloomy note because I do really feel that this region has a bright long term future. I'm not sure if in ten years time we'll have three countries or whatever as members of the European Union but I really do feel that in ten years time this will be a much more prosperous region than it is now but it's going to be still I think a difficult two to three years that we face in front of us.