 Week two was a wild one. We had massive, massive comebacks. We had huge implosions, these massive outbursts from specific players in individual games. It was a delight to follow both from a DFS and a betting perspective. And we're here to wrap it all up. To recap, what went down in week number two, let you know what it means going forward and take a quick look ahead to the week three, NFL DFS main slate. Welcome on into the Heat Check Fantasy Podcast powered by Number Fire. That's right here on the FanDuel Podcast Network and NumberFire.com. My name is Jim Saunders. I am a senior writer and analyst for NumberFire.com. Joined here as always by Brandon Gedula. He is the senior managing editor of NumberFire.com. Brandon, week two still has two pretty fun games left, but week two outside of that has been a blast beyond the Trey Lance injury. How you doing today? No man, I was doing great till you mentioned Trey Lance. I know, our darling boy. Yeah, but yeah, it was a good week overall. Really interesting games and also for us when we look at things from a DFS standpoint, also some games that kind of simply reinforced the fact that it's okay to gloss over some teams. We can talk all we want about the fun teams, but I think that certain teams proved that they don't really offer a whole lot for DFS and that kind of makes it easier for us. Well, I think that it's a couple of things, a couple of things that were important for this week. The first one is that, making your research easier, crossing off a lot of teams. But also, I think it was a good week for concentrated player pools because we talked a lot on Thursday's show about how we felt good about, if there was no George Kedal, I was like, okay, I think it's two quarterbacks to the top, Kyler Murray, Lamar Jackson. And when we got down to crunch time on Sunday, I had 42% of both of those guys. And that made up for a lot of mistakes that I made. I made a lot of mistakes. Like Daryl Henderson, his role got real bad real fast. Like that happened. DJ Shark, I had a lot of. Robbie Anderson had plenty of, but it didn't matter. It was still a profitable week for me because of Lamar, because of game stacks. I think the other thing too is the value of game stacks. If you get that push and pull for all four quarters, that's going to just erase a lot of mistakes. So tight core, mistake erasers, prioritizing upside at all times, game stacks. I feel like it was a good week for our specific process, the one that you and I have, I think that we overlap the most. Yeah, I mean, pull up any tournament. And this, I mean, this would be the case in, you know, cash games tier degree as well, but pull up any tournament, look at the winning lineup, very, very rarely do all nine of those, or we'll call it eight, we'll skip defense, but like very rarely do all eight of those guys hit. You know, you can see someone win a big tournament with one or two sort of under performers, but that's because they hit on high ceiling plays. And one thing that I was thinking of a lot with the slate yesterday as it unfolded was like, okay, yeah, Lamar Jackson, I think probably ended up leading the slate in rushing yards, he did for a bit at least, but it's like, okay, this validated playing Lamar, because we said if he hits his rushing ceiling, if Kyler Murray hits his rushing ceiling, nobody else can really match it. Now, one player did, it took him over 400 yards and six touchdowns to do that. Jared golf almost got there too. Let us not disrespect our other son, my other son, sorry. It's he's a half son, it's fine, don't worry about the family tree here. The thing though is it's very easy to look back in hindsight and say like, well, yeah, Tua and golf put up huge games and I could have just saved a bunch of salary, but you're cherry picking those huge outlier performances. And yes, Lamar had a big outlier performance. I'm not saying he didn't, but you're looking at, you know, after the fact picking the right one or two of 20 value quarterbacks who went off, it's just goes to show that the predictability of rushing quarterbacks and the upside of rushing quarterbacks can really, really pay off and erase a lot of mistakes. Yeah. And I needed those erasers this week. Yeah, I needed that. Every running back I used, I think it was bad, although every running back on the slate was bad outside of Nick Shub basically. So it didn't really hurt you to have bad plays at running back, but that definitely did help have those guys go in bananas. We're gonna break down in the big week two takeaways and what it means going forward in just one second, the first air reminder to make sure you're subscribed to the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed. We are live here on Mondays and Thursdays, Monday recap, Thursday preview. I like your mug. 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Russ has a really low passing success rate, which I think I should have paid more attention to heading into this week. It did get lower, but it was also pretty low in week one. Kind of feasted off of some bigger plays. He got five based on that. I should have paid more attention to that when I was looking at this slate. Also didn't help that Jerry Judy got banged up in the first quarter he got rolled out at halftime. KJ Hamler did not play in this game, which I don't think helped either. If we look at Russell Wilson's targets after the Judy injury, Coral and Sutton got 10. Givante Williams had four, Tyree Cleveland at three. Nobody else had more than two. Sutton a 44% target share and a 57% area share after the Judy injury. So I wanna ask you first about the Broncos offense overall, but then also about how we look at this offense if Judy misses time. Yeah, I mean, it's not good to see what we've seen from Denver. It's not just a small sample of Russell Wilson maybe getting off to a little bit of a slow start. It's play calling issues. It's delay of games. The Denver stadium, the fans were chanting the like play clock countdown. Almost like when you watch Yonah Santeta Combo like attempt a free throw like that. With that much energy so that they did not get yet another delay of game. There was a third and short or fourth and short and they ran like a tight end option or something. It was, it's kind of, it's just head scratching. And so while we can write it off as like a small sample of getting acclimated, I haven't seen a whole lot to get me very excited. Russell Wilson obviously does not run the ball. So he's just the pocket passer. He can be at his peak, a very good pocket passer. But one of the things that I would struggle with with Russell Wilson, even at his peak with Seattle was that he's obviously had the volume issues and he thrived off of efficiency. And now if he's not gonna run and he's not gonna be super efficient, I don't know what he's really giving us. And I don't wanna just write it off entirely but watching him too like kind of took some snap he doesn't look like himself. He took a snap and kind of rolled out and just stumbled and ate a sack. And like, yeah, that's an accident but that's not like the crisp offense, like the crisp Russell Wilson that, when I would have faded Russell Wilson and Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf in the past, I would have felt like he's gonna take a snap, do something magical and like throw a dart 40 yards downfield. And I don't really know if that's how I view it now. So I mean, I'm a little bit concerned. What are your thoughts here? Well, I'm concerned because of the injuries. Like KJ Hamlin might not be a big target earner but he's a field stretcher and Sutton gets downfield targets but it's more so because of physicality than like raw speed. And so they don't have the field stretcher there. Judy's now banged up. That's a lot of pieces to loosen this offense. So I think that your concerns would be valid in general but then you add on the fact that they're partly explainable because of injuries. I think that kind of makes it worse because I do like Givante Williams. I wanna use Givante Williams. His role was pretty good in week number two. Still got, still ran a lot of routes. Only four targets, only one catch but like he's still had a pretty good role and also to get a lot of work towards the red zone. So I wanna be on Givante. I wanna be on Coral and Sutton, but it is concerning. The thing with Ross is Nate Tice of the athletic he would always call Baker Mayfield Ross with less athleticism. Does that mean that Ross is now Baker Mayfield and we're not leaping to use guys to hide to Baker Mayfield? So I think your concern is legit. I think it's more concerning or it's more legit if these guys wind up missing time. More time I should say. Yeah, I mean, Jerry Judy's a really good receiver. There's not a whole lot behind Coral and Sutton. I mean, you can say Albert Okaue went on but he didn't really get the usage bump. Two targets, baby. So it's tough. I mean, I guess if you want, you could say it just as easier to stack Russ now with Coral and Sutton or maybe you stack him with Givante, but... That would apply to Russ at quarterback and I can't do that. Yeah, this went from, you know, hey, look, we liked Lamar, we liked Kyler and then maybe Russ and Trey Lance were like three and four. Yeah. I don't think I'm gonna be able to put them there and maybe they go out, you know, obviously we don't fully look ahead to next week. I don't know when they play or who. They play on Sunday night. So they are off the nameslate, bless them. Oh, we're gonna have a Russ Jimmy Garoppolo matchup. Yeah, it was, yeah, we'll talk about that half of it. Had I known that matchup before the season, I'd been like, oh man, Russ gonna be cooking in Denver. Trey Lance, yeah. And I like Jimmy Garoppolo fine, but this is very different. We can like Garoppolo and say it's not nearly as fun. Yeah, it's not as fun. We'll talk about that in the injury section, but let's talk now about the Cardinals. Really slow starts. Like when they're in the game plan section of it, things don't go well. Last week, the second half surge was probably because the Chiefs didn't need to do anything. They probably didn't care. This week though, the Raiders cared and Kyler's kind of did stuff. They were very dependent on Kyler just doing stuff, but it did work. So the Cardinals come back, but it's still a struggling offense. Now James Connors banged up. He's got an ankle injury. After he left, Darrell Williams played 37 snaps with eight carries and three targets. You know, Benjamin 33 snaps, five carries and four targets. So the offense is volatile. It has been awful, unbearable at times, but they have shown flashes of being fun when they've had to, but I don't know how to view them. What's your view of them? What's your read on this backfield if we assume Connor missed his time? Yeah, if we want to talk about injuries and absences, at least a little bit for Denver, obviously no Deandre Hopkins, I know Ron Del Mor yet for the Cardinals, but it's like you alluded to with the slow starts. You want to kind of see teams have their first 15 and do some things, but Arizona now has the third lowest offensive success rate through two games in the first half. Connor Murray in the first half has a passing net expected points per dropback rate of negative 0.16. League average is about a 0.10 on the positive end. Now in the second half, he's at 0.13, so he's a little bit above average, but obviously when we're talking about Connor Murray, we want, or we should expect like and hope for average passing efficiency with a bunch of rushing upside. So like that works, but I mean, it kind of kills the stacks if I feel like I can't really expect four quarters of good play here. So again, it's another situation where I don't want to write it off completely. And when I talked about some offenses that made it simpler to just write them off, these are not the offenses I was talking about. It's more like New England and Pittsburgh and Chicago, that kind of stuff. So I'm not like out, but I think there's like, if I don't know what Ron Del Mor is going to be, if he's going to play next week, obviously still in though, no nuke for a bit, like this could carry over, take James Connor off the field. We've kind of come around on James Connor, you know, but this is not a good situation. I think the one thing that was encouraging is that they did start to funnel more targets towards Marquise Brown and Zach Hertz. AJ Green still got more than he deserved and he looked awful outside of that two point conversion. Like my gosh, I was complaining about it in Slack and JJ Zacharyson said, you can't spell JAG without AJG. And I was like, okay, I like this, co-op that, so we're going to go with that going forward. I think that getting Marquise Brown 11 targets and Zach Hertz 11, that makes me feel a bit better because like they might still sputter, but at least I don't have to worry about it. Okay, I mean, Greg Dortz had a touchdown too, you know, but just four targets for him, 55 yards. If I can feel better about the Brown and Hertz side of it, that does help things. But like... So here's a good question though. And this will depend on specific teams, but we're through two weeks now. Are you looking more, are you waiting week two more heavily? Are you looking at games one and two? Because combined, Marquise Brown's up to a 20.5% target share to lead the team. That's not really what we're looking for. He has 42% of the deep targets though and 29% in the red zone. So I'm okay with that actually. Like he's probably over salary, but like they're facing the Rams next week. High total tight spread. I can feel okay about putting him in there. He's over, he was 74 this week. That needs to come down to like 69 or so, 68 somewhere in there. I think that'd be about right. He's 7,000. Okay, that's fair. Cool. What about, what about Kyler? Hertz 55, Hertz should be 55, I would say. Hertz 52 can give me a Kyler. Kyler was 85 this week. He should be bumped down to 83. He is 78. Oh my gosh, they're gonna make me do it again. Mm-hmm. I hate it. Yeah. I hate it so much. I wish I could. That's the, it's the Jake Gyllenhaal broke back Mountain Gif where he's just staring off in the distance saying, I wish I knew how to quit you. That's me with these stupid cardinals. I hate them. I hate them so much. And I'm gonna hate them again next week. We're gonna be here one week from today. And we complain about the stupid freaking offense on the show again because I'm gonna use them again and they're gonna let me down again. Although I guess my Cardinals money line won yesterday. It's like, why am I complaining this much? I don't know, whatever. I'm gonna regret it. I'm gonna regret it. Again, we start to look ahead on this show. So it's not all planned out, but it's looking like there are gonna be four games with totals over 50 and a lot of other games with totals close to 40. So it might be an easy week to study up on. Yeah. What's your read of this backfield? I feel like it'll probably be split. I prefer Benjamin, but seeing Williams get that much run in that game was, did dull my enthusiasm there. Yeah, I mean, I tried to pull up the play-by-play stuff and actually look and see, were these guys getting on the field before the injury? Cause that can tell us a lot, but it wasn't really the case. So. Benjamin played more last week, I think. Let me pull that up quick. I think his snap rate was not negligible. 35% last week and Williams didn't play an offensive snap. So that's why I favored Benjamin, but like we didn't see that this week. What would his salary need to be for you to plug him in? Cause I'm assuming he'd be Game Stacks only, but. 55? Like. If I've been Eno and I saw Gino and I was like, he's, there's no way. 75% for it. 68? 63. Yeah. Okay. Well, we'll read what Cliff says throughout the week for whatever that's worth. Probably not much, but we'll see. Other struggling offense right now is the Bengals. They get the Jets next week, so we got to talk about them. They're now 0-2. It's a similar pattern with the Cardinals where they've gone up to slow starts and then been somewhat relevant the second half, but Burrow has taken 13 Sacks already so far this year. That's a bummer. And it's, you know, it could be the offensive line trying to jail cause they got a lot of new guys in there. Burrow himself is kind of a rust-esque player where he hunts for big plays and gets himself sacked as a result. The good thing was that with T Higgins being back this week, the offense was pretty concentrated. 10 targets for Higgins, nine for Jamar Chase, seven for Hayden Hearst. So they've struggled, but at least they're still concentrated. And maybe we can see an uptick. What's your view of the Bengals right now? Yeah, worry some with the Sacks. They come with the territory with this team. Joe Burrow has like a really high pressure to Sack conversion rate, which is not what you wanna see, but pretty sure I saw that he's not getting blitzed a ton by comparison, which is especially not what you wanna see with such a high Sack rate. Yeah, he's down toward like the league, like the bottom of the league. He's been blitzed on about 15% of his drawbacks league average this year is 26%. And yet he is guys around him who have been blitzed at a similar rate. This doesn't account for volume necessarily, but Tom Brady, three Sacks, Aaron Rodgers, seven, Stafford, eight, I guess it's, who those guys, who Stafford can... But 13's a lot. 13's a lot. And those are drive killers. So it's tough. I would say for next week too, the Jets defense is not what it used to be. Like they've got some dudes who are fine. I know that the Browns put up 30 on them yesterday, which shouldn't happen, but like it's not as laughable of a defense as it once was. Yeah, I think this is gonna be of the, well, not quite because Arizona plays their Rams, but I think this is potentially the, still the most fascinating because we could see salaries dip a bit unless they just automatically were frozen because they're playing the Jets next week, but the total is 43 and a half Cincinnati is favored by four and a half on the road according to Vandal Sportsbook. So, you know, their implied team total is gonna be fine, but your research has shown totals like that low are not great conditions for receivers. It's specifically bad when guys are popular. So I could see a scenario very easily where people kind of overlook the struggles and flock towards Higgins and Jamar and also like Nixon as a result of, you know. Burrow bounce back to. Yeah, like I can see that happening. So I wanna get rid of if they're popular. If they're not popular, I could see a bounce back very easily because I still have faith in these players and still a concentrated offense, but if they're gonna be popular, I think you have a lot of leeway to pivot based on that, based on everything going on here. So let's take, what? Chase was what, 87? He's the one I'm most interested in just because, where would you put him now? I thought he's too high there, honestly. I thought he was too high. Like he's probably like an 83 and Higgins is probably like a 70, 78, 77. When I think of Jamar Chase's player card on Fandle and I think 82. Yeah. And what'd you say for Higgins? 77, 78. I'd probably go like 75, but. Okay. Where they at? Chase is 85, Higgins, 73. Okay, so it's a T week next week. Good to know. Let's dig in some injuries for this week. The big one and the sad one is Trey Lantz broke his ankle Sunday, he'll be done for the year. That sucks. Jimmy Garoppolo came in, didn't light it up, threw a deep on three of 21 attempts as you would expect. Efficiency may change if he gets a full week as starter that can game plan around this stuff. But looking at Garoppolo's targets, seven out of 21 targets to Brandon Ayuk, five to Debo Samuel. Debo did rush four times for 53 yards. So Lantz is done, which stinks. We also don't know when George Kittle will be back. Did practice Friday, so I think he'll be back this week, but it's uncertainty there. As far as the backfield goes, Jeff Wilson led a committee over Tyrion Davis Price. Wilson, 18 carries and two targets, actually played well too, which was weird. I thought he'd get volume, but play bad, which is why it was like not super, super high on him, but like I used him. He played better than I thought he would. TDP 14 carries, a 40% snap rate. Wilson ran around a 10 out of 25 drop backs. Same number as TDP, TDP no targets, but both guys get in 10 routes. So it's a full split here. Wilson did have six red zone chances compared to TDPs too. How are you viewing this full offense going forward? Now, Jimmy G at the helm in place of Lantz. I don't mind it. Like honestly, I'm more inclined to play the pass catchers because there should be more just passing volume and Jimmy Garoppolo is fine for sure. I was pretty upset when I had to go into my priors sheet this morning and increase or passing efficiency. I was like, this feels wrong. I did decrease the rushing efficiency. So like I think the net wound up being pretty much a wash, but I was pretty sad about it. Yeah, and maybe we have different reads on this, but it seemed like George Kittle was fairly close to playing this week. So he might be back and then throw a wrench into everything. Obviously increase the efficiency, but kind of make the market shares here a little bit irrelevant. So maybe we can dig back and look at historical numbers with Jimmy G for the preview show, but if they're on the main screen. Well, they're on Sunday night, I think. So, awesome. That's right. See you guys. So we don't have to worry about it. These goons over here? Yeah, I mean, it's probably Elevate Ayukabit. He's probably the biggest beneficiary of more passing volume because Dibo's gonna get his work. Kittle might be limited, but he'll have a high target per route rate. So it's probably just better for Ayuk. And I don't think I saw enough in the backfield to want to go here. Yeah, I think they'll have weeks where they can like put up enough where it's like, I kind of wish I'd used him, but are they gonna burn me for not using them? Like what's their ceiling? Probably not super, super high. I think the Wilson's got the edge, but there was always a chance that Tyrion Davis Price's role expands as things go along. And again, yeah, I mean, we can see a two touchdown game from one of them, but in hindsight, you can identify those not necessarily before this like locks. And even like without the passing game work, like two touchdowns, 60 yards is 18 points. You're not gonna, that's not gonna kill you for not having it. So I think that's the way I'd view this one here. Justin Herbert suffered a fractured rib cartilage and he is day to day. I'm not sure if I phrase that right, but anyway, he's got that. It makes it seem like he'll be good to go this week, but he's probably not gonna be feeling great. So any worries for you with his Charger's offense with Herbert banged up, even when he plays? It looks like sports books are assuming he'll play. They've got a lineup with the Charger's minus seven. I'm showing some value on that as of right now. So maybe they're kind of playing it, hedging it a bit under the possibility he doesn't go. I think that should be like a 10 point spread based on my numbers. So it might be a bit of a hedge against Herbert there, but what's your read on this offense with Herbert banged up? You're way more plugged into the news than I am. What's Keenan Allen's situation? See how he's playing this week? He seemed like he didn't have a chance to play this week because it was a short week, which to me implies there's a decent chance he goes. Okay. And then Herbert also gets like the mini-bye playing Thursday and then waiting til Sunday to play. So I mean, in this situation, I kind of trust this offense enough to figure out ways to get the ball out of his hand quicker. Part of that could funnel through Austin Eckler who kind of did the undertaker Giff. I mean, Diddy though? A little bit low. Diddy? We can talk about it, but that was a lot of garbage time dump offs, man. Yeah, but I mean, if they check down a lot, I mean, yeah, they're gonna be trailing the Jags at home. Our Jags. Sorry, not to be disrespectful to our Jags. Not to be disrespectful. They put the clamps on the Colts. I mean, that's because the Colts suck and the Chargers don't. Like, Matt Ryan with his nude alarm and his dusty legs, a little bit different than Justin Herbert, broken ribs or not. Geez, how many redstone plays did they have? The Chargers? We'll talk about the Eckler side later on. I've got theories. We can talk about that later on, but like- Just guys theories. Yeah. I love the good gym theory though. I think if they're willing to let Herbert play, that to me says he's healthy enough where we don't need to downgrade the offense. That's what I would think here at least. Yeah. It's too early to say. We'll find him in the salary scroll. Eckler or Herbert? Herbert and see why he stacks up. Cause he could be interesting depending on- It would stink if he gets down, if he doesn't run. Cause like that, that play at the end of the game where he like had open field and just kind of like chucked it away, that was disconcerting. Hunter Renfro is being evaluated for a concussion after yesterday's game. You had hidden that last play. I didn't see any updates on what his status was, but it didn't look good. So that didn't look good. Renfro led the team with 10 targets. Darren Waller and Mack Hollins. Mack Hollins had eight targets. Devontae Adams had seven. I think that like, we're probably gonna see that a lot going forward where teams are just like, oh, okay, Derek Carr can't throw it to anyone else efficiently. Let's put the clamps on Devontae and just like disregard these other jabronis. I mean, Waller's not a jabroni, but like, you know, whatever. How would things shift for you if Renfro missed his time? I mean, I'm not like a huge Renfro changes the efficiency of the offense kind of guy. It would probably make Mack Hollins like a tertiary option if I'm stacking games. He went from having the worst target per route rate in the NFL to having like two catches in the first like three minutes of the game it felt like. But yeah, with Devontae specifically, I think we can probably lower him a tick because the efficiency was so bad. His catch rate over expectation was a minus 26%. Caught two of seven targets. Did have four targets downfield, which for me now is 10 plus yards downfield, not 20. I'm gonna kind of see a shift there. He'll consist easy with this guy, gosh. Yeah, but I'm trying to improve. That's the thing. Trying to adapt just like potentially defenses will adapt to not letting Devontae Adams just be wide open in the red zone, which he seemed to be always in green base. But yeah, I mean, I think you bump him down because this is within the range of outcomes. And I would probably would say not really within the range of outcomes for like Cooper Cup. Not that they were salaried the same, but Cooper Cup doesn't really have these like two catch 19 yard games or 12 yard games. It's probably accurate. Yeah, so. I think that's right. I'd agree that too. And I would expect teams to keep doing this. It's a bit easier too if there's no Renfro. I mean, like Renfro is not a huge threat, but like, you know, it's a competent body out there. And that matters. So I'm not saying like, oh, we can't use Devontae anymore. He still has a 32% target share for the year. He has half the deep targets, seven total across two games based on 16 plus yards downfield. So I don't, you know. So they play Tennessee next week. That, oh, there's it. Where there's a total, it's 45 and a half. Yeah, the total came down because some shark is out there betting under 47 on Sunday mornings, you know. I just figured they, I don't know. But name is salary for Devontae. I think he's the most interesting name here. I still think he should be 87 because like the floor, there is a lower floor, but the ceiling is still there. So 87. He's 87. Yeah. Do you agree with that or no? I probably would have said like 84, 85, but that's not a huge difference. Fair enough. Dalton Schultz heard his knee in week two with less than three minutes left to play. It didn't look great. I think he was trying to go back in there. So I'm not sure what the read on this one is, but he had four targets at the time. CD lamb 11 targets for the second consecutive week. This time seven catches 75 yards. So more efficient somehow. Tony powered seven targets, Noah Brown five. Any interest for you or any extra interest in lamb, Pollard, Noah Brown, if Schultz sort of missed time or is the quarterback play enough to just push the night of play for you? I don't know that CD lamb is dead just yet. He's Brandon Cooks. We've seen high volume guys be relevant. He actually got the 75 yards on a catch rate under expectation of about 3.5 percentage points. I like that four downfield targets. I'll take it. I think he's interesting. You can do that. We'll talk about this team later on. I think they're gonna suck for pace. So pace, not pace pass rate. Sorry, you're right. You're right. You're right to make the distinction. I'm sorry. You're right. I misspoke. You're right. You're right. Oh goodness. They play Monday night at the Giants. Cooper Rush versus Daniel Jones on Monday night in a football. Oh no. How do you have a total under 40 for Monday night football? That's bad. That's bad. We do a Monday night football betting preview every week with Ryan Williams over on covering the spread. Good luck. What am I supposed to... Hey, okay. Well, we'll get to that later on. Let's talk about some role changes here from week number two. The big ones are a lot of rookie receivers doing some stuff. Garrett Wilson. 64% snap rate for the Giants, but that was in part because he left for time to do a back injury, but he had 14 targets, 102 yards, two touchdowns, kind of a homecoming thing for Wilson who played at Ohio State, was playing in Cleveland. I overlooked that. I suck. I know. I know. I know. It's my fault. I agree. I've beat myself up for this plenty. Believe me. You've got one job here. I know. This is my only job is the narratives. And I messed it up. I also missed the Leonard Ford at homecoming game in New Orleans. That was on me too. He didn't do much, but I still, I still messed it up. So we still have Joe Flacco at Life League for at least one more week, but Garrett Wilson's role is really good. So if you do decide to go with those burrow chase situations, are you putting Garrett Wilson in a game stack or are you worried he'll get too much steam here? He very easily could get too popular. He's such an obvious bringback after. And I'm going to look into like air yards and depth of target stuff for Thursday's show and talk about why it's important and it's not just made up and doesn't matter. Like I got some people telling me on Twitter, but speaking of air yards, Twitter's like Garrett Wilson had a 43% air yard share. He had a 178 total air yards in week two, trailing only Chris Olave and Jalen Waddle. Really good role. So I'm fine to a degree chasing it because the role was good. It wasn't just two targets on, or sorry, two touchdowns on like five or six targets. Yeah. And it could have been an even better game if you didn't leave for a bit with that injury. So I think that, I think the air is up. My question to you, obviously, is it within this game stack? What do you think is right for Wilson? 59, just because the offense is so bad. I'd be surprised if he didn't get over 6,000 on his results, but again, we're talking, we're talking what we would be comfortable. I'll say 6,000. Okay. He's 61. Okay, that's fair, but that probably means it'll be more popular too. I think that's, it's okay for him to be popular. I wouldn't really, I'd be pretty inclined to not use him if you're popular, but I think it'd be like justifiable chalk, but I can still pivot from justifiable chalk at a volatile position like that. Yeah, it is volatile for sure. Receiver value pivots or receiver value chalk is basically the worst thing to chase. Because again, these guys are gonna be coming off of hot games usually and you can not always score multiple times. In a row, so. Well, he might because he has eight red zone targets through two games, which is absurd. He could, yeah, he could, but I think he's interesting, probably will be more popular than he deserves to be though. I just want DeGaff Wilson back, Zach that is not Garrett. I know that Flacco like does some stuff, but I don't know, I think we'll see, we'll see how that goes. Probably enough where like, would you consider pivoting to like Elijah Moore as a bring back or has Wilson sucked up enough where you would probably just run it with no bring back and avoid the frustration with the Jets? Yeah, I'm probably more likely not to go there because Corey Davis showed a pulse this week. Elijah Moore's there, they can and do throw to their running backs. So it's very possible that the Jets offense is not irrelevant, but that nobody really goes nuts. And that's not what you want for stacks. Agreed. The Saints, wide receiver distribution changed a lot in week two, centering around their rookie Chris Olave, 13 targets for him, Michael Thomas had nine, Jarvis Landry had five. In week one, Landry led with nine, Thomas had eight, Olave had just three, but Olave got a lot of downfield work in this game. More than three hundred air yards on 13 targets. Michael Thomas also got downfield work, his eight out was 11.3 yards. Joanne Johnson did maintain a nice roll, ran around on the 34 or 46 drop backs, earned seven targets there. So we get Olave getting deep balls, we got Michael Thomas, not looking like his old self, but looking like a very relevant player. What's your view of this offense right now? Yeah, so if you, this is an interesting team to look at from a week one, a week two, and a full season, which seems weird to call it full season, but just the two weeks. Because we saw Jarvis Landry with the best roll in week one, we saw Olave with the best roll week two. The steadiest roll has belonged to Michael Thomas. I think it's pretty easy and safe to say that Michael Thomas would be the default if you could play any of the three, not caring about salary. I think it's hard to argue against Michael Thomas, but Chris Olave's workload in week two was pretty phenomenal. He did surpass 300 air yards, which has been done four other times since 2016. And those guys that did it were Mike Evans, Marquise Brown, Julio Jones, and AJ Green. I know you made the joke about AJ Green already, but AJ Green was at one time the best to receive a football, basically. So I think that there's a lot of potential and the fact that he didn't do a whole lot with it and the fact that I think a lot of people don't care about things like carry yards and actively hate them might mean that Chris Olave is not as popular moving forward as he probably should be. So I would say Thomas still number one, but Olave would be the number two and I think I'm probably down on JARV, but you were on JARV this week, so maybe I'm writing them off too soon. Another guy who's mistake needed to be erased, I might have bet the over on his receiving yardage prop as well because I suck. Yeah, I think that for me, I should have been more skeptical to Jarvis Landy rolling week one, I think is what I would say. And I think that what I want to do is go based off of the full season data, like you said, make that kind of my view of the offense. We look at the full season numbers here for this team, we've got scrolling, MT at a 24% share, Olave is now at 22%. That makes a lot of sense, honestly, Olave 39% of the deep targets, Thomas at 22%. Then Thomas has a third of the red zone targets, it's only three out of nine, but I would say it's Thomas one, I would bump Olave up to two and Jarv three. I feel like that probably means I won't use Jarvis and should not have used him this week. That was probably a mistake, but mistakes happen plenty often. We'll talk about the running backs with this team right now, actually. With New Alvin Camara, the Saints were largely a committee. Tony Jones loaded the 49% snap rate. Mark Ingramd looked good at times, Dwayne Washington had some bursty type runs in there as well, Ingram was banged up coming in. So I don't think we should use Jones. I don't think I want to go there. Would you consider a healthier Ingram next week if Camara were to sit again or are they just a cross-off? I don't like this offense enough. So I want to target their running backs where I needed more, I either need like dedicated volume or expected efficiency, like a Clyde Edwards-Elair situation. The total next week, 40 and a half against the Panthers. That game could be ugly. That could be a 3-3 going into half-time sort of game. Can picture that one with the graphics. So no. It's two former number one overall picks. Baker versus Jamis. There we go. Let's talk about the other rookie receiver who had a good week that was Drake London and talked about the Falcons here. Cordo Paterson's role was underwhelming. Even with no, Demian Williams is now an IR. Paterson played just 59% of the snaps. 10 carries and one targets. And you split early down work with Tyler Algier. So that's kind of a bummer. But Drake London, 12 targets led the team. Nobody else had more than three. Kyle Pitts, I had three. So Paterson, I think I can personally shove him aside. I don't want to speak for you, but I think personally, we weren't super in him at a salar anyway. So just kind of see ya. But London is fun. Is he kind of the one guy for you here? Or are you still holding out hope for a Pitts surge? Where are you at? Yeah, I mean, London was one of my favorite plays of the week. I thought he was really under salaried for what his role was and could have been. So I'm high on London. I think Pitts is probably the more intriguing name because you see the two catchers, 19 yards. In both games, Tweet done a ton. You'll see that a lot this week. So he's consistent. But the thing that worries me more is that Arthur Smith said about Kyle Pitts's role is that it's not, quote, it's not fantasy football. We're just trying to win, end quote. And if you don't think that forcing the ball to Kyle Pitts more helps you win, that's not what I want to hear as DFS player. I will say that it could be worse on the season. Now he has a catch rate over expectation of about minus 20%, but he still has a target share of 17 and a half percent, surround that up to 18%. Now, if you compare him to the elite tight ends, obviously he doesn't stack up. But if you compare him to the other tight ends in the value, like in the salary range where he was this week, I think he's fine. The main issue obviously with Pitts specifically has been touchdown expectations. If the offense is projected to be poor, it's hard to score. And if they're not gonna force in the ball. So what I'm getting at is like Kyle Pitts, I don't view as like someone who should give me FOMO if I don't get there. But I don't think that we should see him in the same salary range as like T.J. Hawkinson or something and just be like, I can't play Kyle Pitts. It's not bad. Yeah, I think that it would, I would need him to be not popular for once. I'm not sure if that'll ever happen. Maybe well now the people are finally like annoyed with him enough. I need that to happen first because like I'd rather just use Drake London to be fully honest. Like, I mean, London's great. Name me a salary for London and then name me a salary for Pitts where you'd actually have actually have to be tempted by him. Okay, so they play, and this is always match up specific Seattle 42 and a half point total. I wasn't like, I thought it was gonna be not gonna lie. There are like four games with totals over 50 and like almost everything else is bad under 44. So there's gonna be a pretty big gap. I'd say for London, he should be like, cause I still care about the offensive expectations. I'd say 66. I thought 63, he is 62. So regardless under salaryed. I think that's pretty fun. Like he, is it odd to say that he's a cash game consideration at that number? No, I kind of like don't yell at me for like exact roles and stuff, but I'm getting like 2020, I was trying to think of the year 2021 Amon Ross St. Brown numbers where like, they're just gonna get him involved and like feature him even if the offense isn't fantastic, but his salary is in like the low 6,000 range. Yes, that sounds like a floor argument, but stealing comes from volume. Yeah, but he's getting, he's had, he's had five downfield looks, 45% deep rate. Yeah, I agree with you. So like he has a ceiling I think, yeah. Absolutely cash game kind of guy will probably be in our head-to-head against each other unless things really shake out differently from expected. I would say for Kyle Pitts though, probably not a whole lot of change. He was 59, I think this week. I'd probably put him at like 58. I don't think that like, what's his role compared to the other upper 5,000? What's his role compared to the lower 5,000 guys? Like we can get Tyler Higby at 53 this week, would you rather Higby or Pitts straight up? With offensive expectations in that game Higby? I'd rather Higby too. Pitts is 56 next week, I would have said 55. So like he's low enough to be a consideration, but I'd rather use London and I'd rather get my lower salary tied in the better team unless no one uses him, then I'll consider him. Speaking of Higby, let's talk about those Rams. They're running back, committee did Titan in week number two, much to my dismay. Daryl Henderson played a 57% of the snaps, came acres at 44% acres, letting carries 15 to 10, he had three targets compared to none for Henderson. They split Red Zone work, acres got three carries in one target, compared to Henderson's three carries. Should we just avoid these guys? What are we doing here? Yeah, I think we have to. Again, I think I got away with Clad Edward Dealer in week one. Definitely think I got away with, not that it helped me, but I at least got away a little bit. You didn't kill me and it should have, yeah. We got away with it because like, there weren't any good running backs on the slate. So we got away with it, we shouldn't have. I think we kind of, I mean, I know CEA should have a game on Thursday, but like you cash your chips, you walk away from the table, you be happy that you're up and you go elsewhere. And like, I'm not putting this in the same tier, but based on what we saw from the Rams in week one, it wasn't great. Then I'm not saying like this, they're in the same tier as like the Cardinals and Bengals, but I have a, I don't know. I just, I'm not as high on them as I used to be. You got to adjust to the fact they played the best quarterback in football one week and then Josh Allen the other week, you know, facing Marcus Mariota this week. I knew it was coming, but I don't know how many other people did. You got to adjust to that, you know? You can't keep them off the field. Plus 4.7% completion percentage over expectation for Mariota this week, you know, it happens. It happens to the best of us. Yeah. And he was making some scramble plays for first downs and he's the best. Got the pressure on. I think honestly, the Rams are very similar to the 49ers right now, where they have passed to a decent game. I'm not sure they have passed to a great game in their backfield. So the FOMO factor for me is pretty low personally. For now, that could change. Something to change for sure. It's also sort of baked in that these guys have their roles capped. Yeah. Yeah, exactly. Austin Eckler did increase the snap rates in week two from 51% to 64% route rates from 35% to 60%. 14 carries and 10 targets. Somehow still got under 97.5 rushing plus receiving yards. Shout out Austin, appreciate that bud coming through for the team. Are you viewing Eckler differently now or was that a result of a mad scramble at the end and no key to now and which is my theory? Yeah, it's a little bit more of my theory. He was boosted so much by touchdowns last year. The role itself did not stack up with the elite running backs, which we talked about entering week one. We haven't quite seen it this year yet. So he's not, it's not awful. I think if you probably blocked out the name, you'd find some other similar backs with roughly similar workloads and be interested at lower salaries. He's kind of like Aaron Jones with a much higher salary and a higher sentiment. Yeah. And like Aaron Jones has passed to a ceiling. Aaron Jones in my MVP spot for a single game. Like there are paths to that, but I don't want to like, you know, I don't want to get overconfident in things like that. So... Bigger favorite next week, seven points at home. I know that Eckler's not the traditional like milk the clock running back, but that'll probably lead to some popularity with a high implied team total. What are you thinking salary wise for Eckler that you would actually want to play him? It'd need to be in the seven thousands. I was thinking in 75 just sort of split it. Yeah. What is it? Do you know? 87. What am I supposed to do with that? Like he had a 61% snap rate in the first half this week. He wasn't running it. Like it was better, but like it still wasn't good. I'm not touching 87. I don't care if it burns me and that's fine. I've been burned before. Damian Pierce's role was a bit better, neutral script this week. He played 63% of the snaps, 15 carries one target. Rex Burkhead, no carries and three targets. Pierce had three out of six red zone chances for the team. The big flaw for him is that he ran a route on just 15 of 41 drop back. So he's gonna be a couple target per game max kind of guy. I think that his role is better now than it was, obviously, but still not in a spot where I want to consider him for DFS. Where are you on Damian Pierce right now? No, thanks. I don't think there's enough time. I need to be better at being open to value backs or non-elite backs so that I can play or also never play Cooper Cup ever if I'm not open to these guys, but I don't really know if this is it. I think he's fine for season long. This is more appealing for, based on what we saw in week one, but I really don't think this is it, honestly. Potentially similar discussion with Josh Jacobs. Again, his role is better than I expected last week and then it was better than last week this week. He played 75% of the snaps, 19 carries one target. So still not great passing game work, but he did run 21 routes. So maybe room for improvement there. The problem is that Brandon Bolden didn't play and I'm not sure much of a role that played in it. I'm guessing a pretty big role in his expanded passing game work. So it might not stick, but where are you on Josh Jacobs right now? Honestly, another spot where I think the sentiment is too high on Jacobs. Even in game stacks, I don't like to go there. I guess maybe you say if Renfro's out and there's no Bolden, he can naturally just filter in for another two targets. I don't think he's necessarily like a game-changing receiving back though. So I'm probably just gonna pass. Yeah. I'm curious how popular he'll be because he was more popular. Like I've looked at Ross Ray projects in Sunday morning and I was like, uh... He's always more popular. He's always drafted earlier. People hate him. People just poop talk him on Twitter all the time and yet he still wants it being popular. I don't get it. How does this happen? So they're playing the Titans. The Titans will be on a short week. Next week. But Vegas is also traveling and playing a one PM game. True. Jacobs last week had one of six red zone chances. Brandon Bolden had another one. Brandon Bolden played 29% of the snaps in that game. This week in the red zone, Jacob... I don't have it sorted by name yet. He had three out of 11 red zone chances. So like the red zone rule isn't even great either. Not gonna get a ton of red zone work. Not like the focal point there. He's not getting a lot of passing game work. I think that like, that's the case in areas like a hundred yards and a touchdown and like that 16 fandal points. So I'm lower. He's better than he was, but it's still not good enough for me to like be slobbering over him. Like 66, 67, 66 probably. Yeah, somewhere in there. But he's 65, so I don't know. It's still not super, super tempted. The Dolphins backs were different this time than they were in week number one. Raheem Mostert started, played a lot early and did ultimately out Snapchat's Edmunds 57, 50 to 49. As the script got super negative though, Edmunds did take over. Neither guy hit 70 adjust opportunities or 80 yards. I don't think they can run the ball. Mostert was more successful with it than Edmunds was last week. So I'd expect that early down roll to stay in his favor, but I just think they're bad from a rushing perspective. So is this a backfield to avoid for you? This is the kind of backfield that I feel like will just lose you bankroll longterm. I agree, not even for game stacks. I can't, I don't think I want to go there. Just use Tyreek and Waddle, easy money. Amari Cooper doesn't have the best quarterback situation, but he was treated like a true like alpha receiver this week. 10 targets on 25 routes, 40% target per route rate mark, which is something we see only. We saw just through receivers again week one, that was AJ Brown, Tyreek Hill, Devante Adams. I don't want to use guys in a Jacoby Bersetlet offense, but it is a substantial change. So how are you viewing Amari Cooper after week two? Like, I think he's on the menu for like cash games if the situation's not abysmal. And the salary's low. It's gonna be abysmal in a week. Sure, but I thought it was noteworthy because only a few guys got to that threshold last week. Some guys, some other guys who crossed 40% this week, Drake London, 48%, Jalen Waddle, 45%, Garrett Wilson, 41%. So all the rookies except for Waddle is the second year guy, cool. This is kind of fun. I like the young guys. And then Amari. It's like guys on new teams and rookies are just getting like- Which is weird. Yeah. Like if you told that to 2019 fantasy football world, they would have like lost their minds. Okay, let's go into situations to monitor more rapid fire things that stood out to you this week. What stood out to you in week two? The results weren't there for Leonard. I think we might've lost Brandon. We're getting back. Hey, you're back. What's up? Talk about Lenny again. Talking about Leonard Fournette. Results weren't there, but 86% snap rate, 24 carries four targets. So a great role for Fournette. David Montgomery is a snap rate. Let's go back to Lenny quick. Sorry, I forgot. Well, you were even saying anything. Yeah, no, I did. I dropped the ball. So we did lose Brandon again, but with Fournette next week, Tampa Bay is facing Green Bay. I think that game is on the main slate. Let me check here. It is indeed on the main slate. Green Bay and Tampa Bay is on the main slate next week. Fournette, I love what we saw from them from a role perspective this week. Obviously there's a chance Chris Godwin plays. Mike Evans might be suspended for this game. So we might need to downgrade the offensive efficiency a bit. I'm not sure if Donovan Smith will play. He was doubtful this week. So the offensive situation, the environment is not great, but I love Lenny's role. So Brandon, name me that salary for Leonard Fournette this week. 81. He is 72. I think that's our first to write that down this week, isn't it? Yeah, that's a results-based thing. He's got a great role. That's a pretty good game too. I know, you know, we can talk about this stuff, but Lenny is a cash game play this week unless something weird happens. That is a really good role for his salary. Okay, what else did that do? David Montgomery, his snap rate improved from 66% to 81%. He ran 64% of the team's drop backs, or ran a route on them, and that was nine routes, which, you know, it is what it is. Montgomery can be interesting if the salary is right. What would his salary need to be for you to be interested? So they get Houston next week, which is the best situation to have the entire year. I would say based on his current role, 81% snap rate, a lot of work, some work in the passing game when necessary for the passing game as much as it exists. I think that role is worth like 73, right? I would say 72 to 74. Yeah, and his salary is 71. So I prefer Lenny. Oh, yeah. But like Montgomery is a consideration of that number in that specific matchup, I think. Yes, I would say so as well. Jet's Backfield, I think we're just gonna be checking in on this and not really have much to say for at least a bit, but Michael Carter built his lead over Breeze Hall. 61% snap rate to Hall's 26%. Each had seven carries. Carter had five targets to one for Hall. Hall was more effective, but nothing you can do with this from a DFS standpoint. Similarly, James Robinson, 63% snap rate, extending a lead over Travis ETN, 37%. It was a 50-50 split and we won Robinson just a really good workload. 23 of 32 running back carries, 205 running back targets. You could maybe prioritize him a tad, but I'm not quite there in this offense. Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalfe have really good market shares, but somehow terrible rolls. Lockett did a 48% air yard share. Metcalfe 28%, but these guys have no yards after the catch. Lockett did 25 yards after the catch on 12 catches. Metcalfe did four yards after the catch on 11 catches. I went back and looked at all of DK Metcalfe's catches and he's basically just getting hit as he's catching it. Nothing's really going down the field. They're either screens or like curls or outs with no juice on them to go down fields. Metcalfe has the eighth lowest expected yards after the catch in the NFL among qualified receivers. So just something to keep in mind, market shares can be very helpful, but this is not a good situation. And then just because we're always looking at tight ends with anything, Evan Ingram, eight targets for a 27% target share, 32% target per route rate. It's at least noteworthy. So they're facing the Chargers next week, which might be a game that we're interested in. Would you consider Ingram as a bring back or is it just Christian Kirk, market share, God? I think you have to be open to it. It'll depend on the slate itself, but his eight odd is terrible, 4.6 yards. So we have both Andrews and Kelsey on the slate. Holy. So I think that- We're banking on those guys to bust. Yeah. So that's noteworthy for sure. Christian Kirk still has a 26% share, a lot of downfield, or like not a lot of downfield work, but enough downfield work. And then he has a five red zone targets for a 39% share. His hours of 71, I don't think that's egregious by any means. It's getting more respectable. Still receptive to it at least though. All right, things I'm looking at here. Christian McCaffrey's role a bit better this week, largely the similar, but a bit better. He played more snaps at 93%, but still limited work in the passing game with just five targets there. He was very effective with 128 yards of scrimmage, but it's still pretty mixed about how to view him right now relative to what he was. I think it's definitely down from what it was, but keeping it on that one. The Ravens will likely get JK Dobbins back for this next week. So we can probably just cross off their backfield until then. Nobody played more than a third of the snaps. Until Dobbins is back, don't use anybody here. And even when Dobbins is back, might want to go there either. Kenny Galli got benched this week, even with Wanda Robinson out and Kaderius Tony being banged up. So when Shepard ran around on 33 at 37 drop backs, David Sills ran 36. I think he's a converted quarterback. I think he played quarterback before he went to West Virginia, if I remember correctly. David Sills quarterback. Let's see here. He went to El Camino College before this, before West Virginia. I think he played quarterback at some point. I could be lying. Anyway, next Edelman. But 36 routes. I probably don't want to go with the Giants if I can avoid it. But if you do Shepard first, followed by Sills, but Saquon is still one. In the first game with no time on gummary, Remondria Stephenson had an edge for the receiving work, but still was not a good role. Stephenson ran a route on 13 of 35 drop backs. He did out snap Harris 62% to 39% to Harris is more productive. I think the Patriots is still a cross-off even without time on it, do you agree? Are the Patriots a cross-off? Sorry, you're right, dumb question. You're right. Let's dig into philosophical changes here from week number three. We saw the Dolphins concentrated targetry. It does help how past heavy they are. I think, yeah, because they can't run. They had a 71% early down first half pass rate. So the negative script did help. Jalen Waddle and Tariq Hill, but so did the fact they can't run and they're just passing a lot. Through two games, Tariq has a 31% target share, Waddle's at 30% and we saw two go nuts. So two questions. How are you viewing the two receivers here and Waddle and Hill? And do we need to be receptive to Tua and DFS at quarterback after his huge game or can we still ignore him because he's not a huge rushing guy? I think we can generally ignore him because he needs like 400 yards and four plus touchdowns to put up like a true, true ceiling. Are you asking like, do I prefer one of the receivers or just how I feel about them in general? I don't want to make you choose. That seems very rude. I wouldn't do that. Yeah, love them. I will say that the real shift is that I thought Jalen Waddle's salary was a little bit high at 72. I don't think that anymore. Yeah. I think it's very fair for what he can do. But yeah, I think Tua is going to matter primarily compared to the rest of the quarterbacks. If we have upside guys, then... I think we have the homes on the slate, which we do. Hertz is on the slate next week, including him in the accent, he's earned that. Did they play Buffalo? It's like, what, Josh and Alan? Buffalo, Buffalo, Buffalo. Oh yeah, so Josh Allen's on the slate too. Forgot about him. Shouldn't do that. That was dumb. Kyler's on the slate. You know, we got all this. So I think in that situation, you're correct. Where he needs four and 26 yards and six touchdowns to kill you for not using him. He happened to get that, but even with a 71% early down first half pass rate, you're not expecting that. Very similar general game script potentially for next week where they trail against the good offense. He's 7,300. I think he will be a very popular play based on the expectation that they'll have to throw a lot. They're underdogs. People don't tend to use underdogs ever. I thought people used underdogs because they want passing volume. No, they don't use them at all. There were like five total underdog running backs who were popular last year in DFS. Isn't like quarterbacks? Roster rate, yeah. Total underdog quarterbacks. And there were six in perfect lineups. There were more quarterbacks in perfect lineups that were underdogs than there were that were popular despite to being three per week that are popular and one in the perfect lineup. So I'm not going to use them. I'm just pointing out that people don't use underdog quarterbacks. Name that salary for Hill and for Waddle. Hill, 85, Waddle, like 78. It was 84, okay. And Waddle is 75. I think we need to be on them both those guys. I think they'll be very popular, but like, you know, that's fair, fair numbers. And I'm more receptive to popular receivers if it comes to the 30% target share, which for both guys currently it does. That's why I'd be there. The commanders were also super, super pass heavy against the Lions. How about that? 68% early down first half pass rate for them. They were 59% last week, which is also pretty high. And that's good too because they have three pretty fun receivers. Curtis Samuel, Lead and Targets. Again, this week, he has 24% of the overall targets so far. Terry McClory did rebound to eight targets on a 13.3 or eight dots. Just five targets again for Johan Dotson, but he also scored again, which is good. Samuel doesn't get downfield looks, which does obscure his path to upside a bit, but Dotson and McClory and get downfield looks without the same overall volume. How do you feel about these guys? Where are you at on the commanders receivers right now? I like them. I'm a little bit worried that it's one too many guys for DFS and it could be one of any of the three and it's probably gonna be statistically, if I play, if I'm heaviest on one, it's gonna be the other two guys. Unless we really think that there's a clear distinction between them. And while I have my preferences, I don't, this is just not, I don't like to tie up too many lineups with very, very hit or miss guys in terms of what their workloads can be. I would say that they've hit so far despite having these spread out market shares because they're past heavy. Yeah, and if I've learned anything in DFS, it's to chase guys who have scored and have high catch rates over expectation because that always sticks. How low would their salaries need to be for you to alleviate your concerns? Oh, like I'm not saying like they gotta be like 55, but I'm saying even if they're all roughly around 6,000, I don't know if I have a strong enough preference to pick the right guy. If I'm building one lineup against you, like I'm probably not putting any of them in there. Oh, I don't think any of them in play for cash gains, but like they're facing Philadelphia next week, which is a game I'll probably stack. Sure. And I'll use all of them. Maybe not Samuel. I don't know. I'd probably show you Samuel, but like he's annoying. But that's the thing. Like you build lineups and you leave out Samuel or you build so many lineups that you need to play all three, then get a little bit out over the skis. No, I just won't use Samuel and I'll hope that doesn't do what he did again. I think Dotson is 6,000, but I'm saying like, that's a very nerve wracking thing to have to say is I hope that I don't care. Okay. All right. Let's look at these salaries for... McLaurin 69, Samuel 63, Dotson 6,000. I'm gonna be pretty decently high on McLaurin and Dotson again next week. Dotson is 6,000, I think. Is this the biggest stand out there? Although he's been catching a lot of passes. Because he's good. Yeah, not 60% over expectation good. Is this game in Philadelphia? Oh, it's in Washington. I was gonna say a homecoming narrative. I know Philly and Penn State are not super close, but like, you know, we could have gotten the homecoming narrative. It's the small state that does not take 16 hours to drive through East to West. It's not the most annoying state of all time. I'm just kidding. Anyway, before I make you more mad at me. Not surprisingly, the Cowboys were super, super run heavy in their first game with no DAC. Early down first half pass rate, 36%, woof. When they did throw, as I mentioned before, a lot of target CD lamb. But so they're not slow from a pace perspective, but runs keep the clock going. And that's gonna put a cap on how fast they can be because they're gonna be run heavy. So to me, their defense is still pretty good. Micah Parsons is still destroying worlds. I think the defense will be good. I think the offense will be run heavy. To me, that's going to lead to a lot of unattractive game environments for DFS. So that's gonna hurt CD lamb for me, but it's also gonna hurt opposing teams. What's your view on game environments of the Cowboys if they're gonna be this run heavy, but also have a weird pace? I mean, they planted a pretty up tempo pace this week. Still third in adjusted pace among teams that played so far this week. 24th of 28 teams that played in pass rate over expectation. I get it. I think we talk about pace and pass rate a lot. I think pace can be very easily overvalued. Sure, it can be viewed as the only thing whereas it's a component in the next year. Yeah, and if there was efficiency here, you wouldn't care so much. It's questions of efficiency. That said, I can boil all this down to, do I like the only guy that I would play here, CD lamb? And do I like CD lamb and his role enough to play him in the right setups? Yeah, if he's gonna get double digit targets. And I know that they wanna rely on his EQ, value it and all this, but there's no excuse for CD lamb not to get nine targets every game. So again, that sounds like floor seeking, but ceilings come from, they're tied heavily to volume. So I think CD lamb's still appealing and that's really all that matters to me here. I don't wanna do it. That matters to me. I don't wanna, I'll pass. Salary scroll. We're gonna take a look at the week three. Fan dual main slate go position by position. Just kinda scroll down, get a quick glance of salaries and just get a gut check on things to stand out to us as being, huh, that's interesting. Let's start a quarterback and Brandon, I'll let you shout out the first thing you see. As usual, the thing that stands out is how many guys are above 8,000 or in this case, 78, because Connor Murray, I would say, meets the potentially elite fantasy football checklist. And there are two, four, six guys there. Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Justin Herbert, Jalen Hurts and Connor Murray. That's the best quarterback slate we've had in a long time. Yeah, if you're gonna be playing like, you might be tempted by Tom Brady at 74, Tua, 73, Derek Carr, 71. I feel like people like to play Derek Carr, but you are really, and I comprehend that saving 1,000 or 1,500 in salary on a quarterback opens up a lot, but you're banking on six guys. It's a six player parley that they all bust. That they all sort of, and again, bust in this sense. Or sorry, yeah. Not go for like, one of them goes for 35 or so, because if they get to 25, other guys can match that, but the thing is these guys can get to 30, 35. And then at that point, you're probably being optimistic if you think that the 1,000 or 1,500 you save, you're gaining those points back by picking the right like stud receiver. You might, but. Yeah, I think it's a great quarterback slate. And Joe Burrow's gonna be, I think Joe Burrow could be popular at 75. And that's a mistake. Yeah, Aaron Rogers is 74. Like that's probably under salary, but it doesn't matter how weird they're in stupid, they're passing offenses. No, I don't think so. Yeah, I think it's another week where we just, we turn towards those upper guys. One like lower salary guy who I would say. Jared Goff? No, who I would say he has my interest. I'm not probably not gonna use him. Trevor Lawrence. I pulled up his player page. I did pull it up because it was like, okay, our Jags are a little past heavy this year, feeling a little frisky. They've been good. I noticed that I come with Christian Kirk. I don't, I'm not gonna cross him off just yet. If I, if you made me use one guy underneath Kyler, it might be Lawrence right now. Might be. I think it would be, we'll see, we'll see how the Buccaneers health goes. Yeah. I don't know if, I don't know, I don't know enough about the rules to know if like Mike Evans would be suspended a game, but probably not. Sounds like they're thinking about it. Okay. So that's what reports are. But if he gets Mike Evans, maybe Julio's back again, I don't know. If you're not on the slate, I don't know. I'll revisit it later in the week the next week, but he could be interesting. Yeah. Okay. Let's go to running back. What stands out to you there? Is that Austin Eckler has a higher salary than Christian McCaffrey stands out? I hate it. McCaffrey 85. Dalvin Cook's salary is 83. That feels really low, right? Am I wrong? I mean, 77% snap rate last week. He left the end at the end of the game though, because they were up by whatever and Madison got some work at the end. 20 carries five targets. We'll be on a short week, but I think that's low. I think that's real low. I don't think it's really low. It's not Lenny low. No. Like Lenny's still the better value relative to salary, but that's low for old Dalvin there. Yeah. Lenny against 72. The guy above him is Clyde Edwards-Elair. And Cordero. Well, that's... But I mean, like, that feels wrong. Yeah. CEH's passing game rule was, I thought, okay in this week, but 73 is really high, even in a game that I'll probably want to stack, despite the fact that he's facing Noodle Arm on the other side of that KC Indie game. Yeah, I think that's pretty low for Dalvin for Lenny. I think people probably fear the Tampa Bay defense, but Aaron Jones 7000. Yeah. Coming off of a 30-point game. Only three targets there, but that's in part because they were up so big because of him. They didn't have to throw very much later in that game. In week one, he had five carries and five targets. Didn't have a ton of work, but because of the way he gets his work is so good, he still had 9.1 fandal points. Like, I think his floor might be a bit underrated because he gets so much work in the passing game. I don't know. Yeah. We're gonna like the Philly Washington game. Antonio Gibson, we liked him a lot this week. His role, he did get worse. Little bit, yeah. His route rate fell from like, what was it? Week one. High to not as high. 48% to 29%. JD McKizzak had more of the passing work, so. Yeah. That's tough. I'm not saying he's out of the conversation for game stacks because there were plenty of Jalen Hurts and AJ Brown, but not like for anyone maybe wondering, hey, we liked him a lot last week. What changed? The receiving role changed. It actually did change. Scrolling down a bit, I wanna see what Devin Singletary's role is tonight because we talked on the recap show last week about how Zach Moss had a fumble late in that game. James Cook had a fumble early. I'm curious what Singletary's role looks like tonight. I think there is a possibility he gets an 80% snap rate. I'm not saying it's like an assumption, but I think it's a possibility. And he would at least be interested in $6,100. What? I just kept scrolling and noticed that Rex Burkhead, running back one from week one for Houston, now it's the same salary as Julius Chestnut, who I've never heard of. Is he on the Titans? Yeah. So I'm guessing he got soured up in case Henry gets hurt. Yeah. I'm guessing that's what that was, but yeah. I mean, I've heard of almost everyone who plays a skill position in the NFL, but I've... Would you use Rex Burkhead if his sour were $52? And I'm $5,252. Would you use him? I just did it a lot of this week for stacking, but that... No, you didn't. Yeah. No. Yeah. I figured, hey, if I'm banking on a Russ shootout, then Burkhead could get eight targets or something. Looking down here, I don't see anything else that stands out. So I think to me, Singletary's a guy, a flag, otherwise like the 7,000s, low 8,000 range is really good this week. Yes. And to keep it like noteworthy though, we're looking now at very likely high salaries at quarterback and running back. I think we're looking at mid at running back though, because Montgomery's 71, Lenny's 72, Jones 7,000. That's still pretty high. Realistically, if you play three of those guys in a stud quarterback, you're... Let me do it. Okay, got you. I got you. Okay, so let's put Jones in there. Let's put Monty in there. Let's put Leonard. I called him his full name and it felt weird. I don't like that. Okay, defense. I'm gonna stick in. I'm not gonna put the Cardinals defense in, don't you worry. I'm not gonna do it. Let's put in just the Seattle defense to place holder. I can't use them against Marcus, but we'll do it. That's low, 34 realistically, but even still. Okay, fine, fine. I'll go up. You're right. You're right. Fair enough. Bengal's defense at 36. That went so well last week. Let's run it back again here. Good, good, good. Okay, so we'll do that. They're 36. And then which quarterback do we wanna go with? Like, who's our favorite of this group right now? Is it Mahomes at 87? I defaulted to Jalen Hertz. Okay, so Jalen Hertz 81. 67-50 left. And then if I go with... Do I wanna go Andrews or Kelsey? Let's go Kelsey. I got 64-100 left. If I go Jalen Hertz and then Kelsey. That's not bad. That's very doable. I think we can do that. Yes, but three receivers around 64 is very different than punting for one or two to play another stuff. So I'm saying like if this is your default thought process at quarterback and running back, that even though like we need a high salary at quarterback and like a mid salary for three running backs, you still can't really roster the stud receivers if you're playing... I got AJ Brown in there right now. If I go back down to Seattle at defense, I've got 54-100 left for receivers. So let's turn our salary scroll to wide receiver. Find me a good one. Find me a good one, Brandon. Don't let me down. Woof. Justin Jefferson Jack, that's 95. Justified. Can't push back on it at all. Cooper Cup is 98. Can't push back on that either. I remember asking on the preview show, like Jonathan Taylor at 10,000 or Cooper Cup at 97. Yeah, all my Christian Kirk stacks got nullified because I had JT as the bringback on all of them except for I had him as a standalone play, I think in like one lineup, but I had him as JT for notes every time. Yeah. Okay. Woo, Amon Ross and Brown finally got jacked up $7,800. Again, justified though. Justified. Like, he's the, oh no. I figured out my $54 receiver. Oh no, DJ Turks how he didn't go down enough in 55. No, he had a donut. Why is he still there? I thought I figured it out. He's gonna go right back to him. Ah, okay. I think you can make a case for like the low 7,000 range receiver as well. Working my way up. We have Terry McClaren at 69, Mike Williams 7,000, Marquise Brown 7,000, Christian Kirk 71, Gabe Davis, the guy 72, Michael Thomas 73. Well, we don't know if we'll have Gabe because he's banged up entering tonight. Isaiah McKenzie is 55, everyone's 55. Stupid, scandal, ruining. T Hagan 73, so I mean, rude. Again, I talk about making sure we get guys with ceilings. But those guys have ceilings. Those guys have ceilings still. So I think balance to build is probably gonna be balance or running back, balance to receivers, probably gonna be our like go-to this week, maybe. It might be, yeah. No running backs really have shown me a workload that is like back in, you know, jam a man days of like David Johnson, Christian McCaffrey playing like 9,000% maybe on bell playing 95% of the snaps and getting 10 targets a game. That doesn't exist. And so that's why historically we've been so heavy on running backs. If those roles don't exist anymore, the one week appeal of Superstar running backs is not what it used to be. Okay, going down further at wide receiver. We have the Washington guys also DJ Mora 64. He's running every route so far. Dwayne Moley Supercop. No Chauncey Garner Johnson anymore for the Saints. That does help out him from a matchup perspective with the Saints 64, not a good game, but, you know, London, Drake London is 62. Again, I think that stands out once again. That's a pencil in. Yeah, again, he was, he was a pencil in last week. He was. He should be again this week. Juju is 61. I don't, we should have had, I didn't think of putting stuff on the chief's receivers in the transaction because they were not on the main slate. Therefore they were out of mind for a four day span. But the first two games, Kelsey is at 23% target share. We've got Juju and MVS both at 16%. Yikes. That's pretty gross. Miko Harbin leads in deep targets at 33%, but that's three out of nine. In the red zone, we have nobody above a 17% target share. Good. Sick. Although, narrative, I believe Gus Bradley is the cold defensive coordinator right now. I need to Google this just to make sure. Yeah. So Gus Bradley is a cold defensive coordinator. Remember last year, Gus Bradley against, or the cheese against Gus Bradley just took a flamethrower to his ear holes, basically. He's changed, he's evolved a bit this year, at least based on, I didn't see anything from yesterday, but like in week one, apparently he's a little bit different than what he had been in the past, but that could be maybe better for them. But I'm just kind of extrapolating there. Wilson at 61, if we're not considering likely roster rates, his role is good enough to justify 61. Garrett Wilson, I think. Devontae Smith at 6,002. Allen Robinson, 6,097% route rates, though not quite the involvement you would want with the five targets, but. Yeah. Running routes in a game that's appealing is definitely not nothing. Correct. Josh Palmer, if Keenan Allen can't go, $5,600. Wanda with eight targets, wasn't super productive on them. And it seems like Herbert was a bit frustrated with him on a couple, where he wasn't in the zone where he was supposed to be. So that, you know, not the best, but like, you know, not the worst either. MVS is 56. Oh, Chris Alave is 55. Yeah. That's kind of fun. That's not a write down, but that's like a keep note for future, I think, right? Not a write down, but with how receiver shaking out. Yeah. Or sorry, the whole slate overall. Yeah. If I want to go stud quarterback, that balanced three running back build, but also not forego the elites at receiver, you'd have to fit. Yeah. I'm asking you not to hit me. I know we're not in the same place, but I'm just asking you this now. Please don't hit me. But if Mike Evans is suspended and if Chris Godwin can't play for shop parents 53, Scotty Miller is 5,000. I think I had a great role. He had seven targets of 10 plus yards down. You have a rush attempt. Did I make that up? He did for eight yards. Yeah. Means they want the ball in his hands. He's pretty fast. Like he's got some juice, got some wheels. Yeah. The fight started because he got knocked out of bounds on that deep route. Tom Brady was like yelling at Marshawn Lattimore. That was pretty fun. I enjoy a good clean American brawl. Hey, I was talking about that 40% threshold for target per route rate. Scotty Miller? Oh, he's listed as Scott Miller on Next Gen Staff now. They still have Robbie spelled with a Y, which also kind of tells me a little bit. 42%. Okay. Scotty Miller is basically Cooper Cup. Basically, Justin Jefferson. That's what we're saying. I'm saying that. I don't want to put words in your mouth, though. I don't see the lie, so. Yeah, show me the lie. Tight end? Good? Good? Yeah, more than good at the receiver. So this is an elite tight end week with both Kelsey and Andrews. Kelsey's 78, Andrews 77. Do you have a lean between those two? Because I go Kelsey. Kelsey in that game environment. Agreed. Firm agree, which could make Andrews a good pivot. You talked before about the value of pivoting on stud tight ends. He could fit that. Waller 64, especially there's no run for it. That's not bad, right? Yeah, like I said, I thought Waller was in a better spot than consensus leading into the week was. Eight targets, 50 yards with a touchdown last week. If Devontae, and I kind of made mention of it, Devontae's probably not gonna get a 50% target share all season, which he didn't. Says you. And we too. Waller also fits in that like, if people are overlooking these kinds of guys who have tangible ceilings at tight end, they're good plays. Yeah, I agree with that. Scrolling down further at tight end. Where is Hickey? Oh, 57, I missed him. Julliver is 58, Pitt's 56. Hawkinson 55. I'm kind of done playing him, but he's got seven targets in both games. Zach Huritz is 52. Just had 11 targets this past week, 75 yards. Pat the upside, pretty good game. I would go back to him again. I used him a bit this week. What? Cole commets 5,000 if you want someone with no catches so far this season. No. Uncle Irf, if he has a better role tonight, coming off of his thumb injury. I bet he'll have a better role tonight. I don't know. I don't know. Something tells me who will improve upon what he gave us in week one, which was two targets for nothing. I'd rather not do this, but like the tight ends and the Jets, Bengals, I couldn't think of the word. The Jets Bengals game are okay. If CJ Uzama sits again, because Tyler Conklin has a pretty good target share through two games, not a lot of like downfield juice, which kind of stinks, but he's 52. And then Hayden Hurst is 51. He had seven targets this week, even with Higgins playing the full game. Again, not a lot of downfield juice, but they're at least worth mentioning, I would say as lower salary tight ends. Sure. Yeah. I mean, I think it's a, it's a Kelsey slash Andrews week, but anything else sending out to you down here? Just how fickle tight end is, aside from the guys who actually have legitimate roles. And yes, you know, those guys don't always pan out, but if they do, it's really hard to erase that mistake. Yeah. So it's like a fear of missing out thing. It's like, you can play, like, no, you can play Tyler Conklin, but if he gets you like 11 points and Andrews scores twice or twice. I mean, it comes back to what we've been saying all year, where you're, if you're not using those guys, you're betting against them having in a productive game because they're stealing us much better. Like that's exactly what it is for this as well. Okay. I'm not doing defense this week. I've decided. So let's skip to a note to future me. Based on what happened in week two, based on early looking week three, what are you reminding yourself of heading into week three? I think one thing is we always call like week two, sort of the over or like under reaction week. I think it's very easy to overreact just a week two now. It's like, oh no, this is what it is, but realistically for almost every team that's not dealing with like substantial injuries. Look at the two week sample, see what that is. That's, that's going to sort of thin out again. The thing that comes to mind is Devonte Adams had like a 49% target share in week one and then felt of whatever it fell to this week. Like it's probably gonna go somewhere in the middle moving forward and that stuff matters. So it's still overreaction time, but I think it's best in general to look at both weeks now. And I think it'll be important to emphasize not point chasing this week, given that we saw some explosion games and the players who produced them are in intriguing games this week. So don't let the output by Tyrae Kill and Jalen Waddle force me to like go all in on them this week. Like try to analyze the sleigh with a level head, try to analyze it objectively, try to jam Lanny into every lineup. I think those are the key tenants for week number three. We're gonna talk more about week number three on Thursday with our preview show that'll be live on the Fandall YouTube page, 10 a.m. Eastern and also up on the Number Fire Daily Fantasy podcast feed after that. A lot of stuff coming between now and then though, is there President's Cup DFS or no? I wouldn't know until later today. Okay, well, we're gonna talk President's Cup on covering the spread tomorrow as you can find that, but also here on the Number Fire Daily Fantasy podcast feed, MLB DFS podcast every weekday, PGA when applicable, NASCAR, UFC, et cetera, et cetera, all the same place. So go find the Number Fire Daily Fantasy podcast feed wherever you get your podcasts and while you're there, like what you hear. Leave us a rating interview as well. People have questions for you on Twitter. Where can they find you there? I'm on Twitter at Goodwill13, G-D-U-L-A-1-3 and I've actually been tweeting some stuff. It's been going great. I'm proud of you, but also scared for you because I know your sentiment towards Twitter. I'm on Twitter at Jim Sonnis. You can also follow the Fandall podcast network at Fandall podcast. Big thank you to everyone for tuning in for this week. Good luck to you with your Monday night two game Slate DFS lineups to talk to you once again Thursday to preview week number three. This has been a heat check fantasy podcast powered by Number Fire.