 Let's get over to our man. Mr. Tim or as we do every Tuesday and Thursday, and don't forget folks You can reach Tim every trading day at odd hyphen Oracle comm that's odd hyphen Oracle comm Tim did an amazing workshop for us It was a great workshop. We're gonna be doing more of those workshops Tim or what's going on brother? All right, I think you over some charts We got time to go through them. We definitely got time man. Yeah All right, so we went we start with chart one. Okay, and It's kind of just this looks at the bigger picture. This doesn't try to pick out You know the day of the low I guess you might say but does get you close to the the lows in general Okay, and what what it is is the weekly American Association individual investors bullbear ratio and all it is it kind of measures what the individual investors are doing out there if their bearish usually has to bully sign if they're bullish use the a bearish sign and today actually I Circled in red there and whether I say that we're actually yesterday Which is point five five and anything below point seven five. You're looking at a low now Now that's a Marcus gone up This is yesterday three but the you know mark's gone up for over a week not up today But it was straight up and these guys remain, you know on the bearish bearish side of things Right, so that that bodes well for the bigger picture is what I'm saying that say we can have some short to pullbacks Most likely we will at some point and maybe maybe start one right now. I don't know but on the bigger picture You know over the next several months anyhow, this is a bullish sign Yes, so that's kind of the bigger picture. Yeah, let's flip the chart to okay and That's in the top window. I use this arms index a lot it The trend or arms is the both same thing Richard arms came up with I think back in 1970s whatever But it measures volume and it measures up volume and but down volume and also major advance and declines and it combines all in into a a Ratio, yeah, it's just basically as it's yes over declining issues divided by up volume divided by down volume and you do all those ratios and you come out with a number one is basically everything's neutral You got as much up volume as down volume on advance usually declining issues doesn't say much But when you start getting volume on the down issues this ratio starts to rise and you would think that Would be bearish But it's really not it's actually bullish and more people rely on this sell side on their declining stocks the more bullish that becomes and So when you get this ratio on a 10-day average, so that's like two weeks of trading This is a 10 trading days. Yes. I use a 10-day and you get up around 1.2 you got a lot of down volume on a lot of down stocks in general and It turns out to be a bullish sign and all that Shaded pink areas are times when that ratio was above 1.2 so Currently we had going back here. It looks like about The October we had a bunch of that reading near 1.2. Currently. We're at 1.18. It's it's more bullish than bearish Yeah, because we yesterday with the market flying up. Yeah, yesterday I mean here look at this folks. Okay, cuz this is this is a big diversions Yesterday, we have a closing one of 1.5 to men and the market, you know, it's up slightly. It's like, okay, really Yeah, and actually the day before that yeah 1.23 the day before that this three days ago 1.28. Yeah, so as the market was going up, I you know people are kind of selling it here, right? so So let's get to the just of what we're talking about I sent you another chart 3 and what that I do is just put to chart 4 oh chat for you. That's right 3 4 Okay, I get 4. Yep. Yeah 4. It's it's it's kind of Here's where we really are if you look at the back in the April-May period, you know shade in light blue and The market was great. We we covered this quite a few different times, but that April-May period was bumping against the February highs and We talked on your show This is the BVIX VIX ratio and there's two I look at it both ways There's a VIX to VVIX ratio, which goes against the trend. In other words when that When that race going up marks going down This is kind of just reverses it so when the S&Ps are going up I hear the music Stay right there folks. Tim and I gonna be coming right back We have the Dow Industrial's down 220 and Aztec off 116 S&Ps are up 34. Tim and I come right back folks Welcome back folks. Tim Lloyd, Tom McBrown. We do appreciate you growling and prowling with us out here We have the Dow the Dow Industrial's right now down 228 and Aztecs off 126 We have the S&Ps off 37. We're talking with our man, Mr. Tim Lloyd and we are I'm on the third shot that he sent Tim, which is the the spy over the I got We're doing that chart number four Okay, so a chart number four is the TLT over the VIX of the is that right? So that that'd be chart five Okay, oh, I see so I thought you want to Replace you didn't want me to replace one you just one second. Oh, I came back. Oh, yeah, actually I just skipped that Chart which is chart three I could we can go over that chart the one the new chart I had a chart three and I updated and sent you another one chart three. Yeah, I have that one up Let's do that one first and we'll go back. Okay, and that's the VIX to the VIX ratio. Okay Yes, it is I believe one second. This one says spy Hold it one second be up in the top right top left corner. Oh, yeah. Yeah. No, that's what it is. Yes That's what it is. Yes. Let's all right. Okay, just okay. That's chart three. That's what the chart four, okay? I might put just just That's a daily. That's the TLT And the VIX, right? No, there'd be a VIX. I see that'd be That's chart five. Okay. Oh the one just give me one second one second. Sorry about this folks So I'll get this one second. Hold it because there's only one shot that I didn't put up But I missed I misunderstood. Okay. We were replacing it once they just give me one second. I'll get this right now Okay, where Where'd you go, Jacob? Oh, where's your hat? Oh my god? I kind of find this hat now Jacob if you hear me, we send it over again. Okay. Let's do the TLT the VVIX first. No, okay Let's do that. Okay. Okay that one now. This is Okay Yeah, the middle window is a daily PLT, which is a bond market over the VVIX Which is the bigs of the bigs. Yes, and you wouldn't think this would draw any conclusions of anything worthwhile but it really does and There's a divergence process and there's a acceleration process and we talked about actually we had this similar chart on our webinar on Tuesday, yes, and what I want to show you the top window is the rate of change the 10 period rate of change for the tilt VVIX and the right and the second window down from the top is the RSI 10 now. There's a two-week RSI and I pointed out the divergence, but also I point out the acceleration So when this this ratio accelerates to the downside and both those ROCs and RSIs gets over Oversold you're looking at a short term low and all those red dotted lines across the chart when that happens It can also work the other way when there's acceleration to the upside There's also a consolidation or a reversal and that's happens when the RSI 10 and and ROC 10 reach above Well, I'd be above 70 and the rate of change would be above Actually 30 and that's that the blue lines across the chart. I see that. Yeah. Yeah, so yesterday We reached you know about 40 So that ratio has gone up too fast too quick And so it's due for a rest as it means at top, you know, sometimes it means the salivation if you look at the April period 2023 I got a circle in blue on the bottom chart there. I see that. Okay. Yeah, I just went sideways And the other two times they had minor pullbacks, but neither one hit new lows or anything Kind of just stalled the rally. So I'm doing thinking We've gone up too fast, you know, what's going to do next is probably also We've been up eight days in a row going to yesterday Up eight days in a row predict the mark will be higher a hundred percent of the time This is over the last five years within five days and the average gains point seven It's about the same statistics is up seven days in a row So even though there could be a minor pullback here. We're such a Momentum up another five six seven days up in a row or eight days in our case The market just doesn't top go back down and it may have the mouth and salivation, but it goes up again So well next week be a down week. Yeah, maybe the first part next week But probably towards the end of next week is probably going to go up now Tim No, I know I was going to ask you this question I was going to ask this question because I was well aware from when you were on on Tuesday Explaining the deal that if you're up seven or eight days, it's a hundred percent of five days later Is that five trading days Tim or just days in general trading days? Okay, cool That's five trading days So, you know yesterday so that would predict next Thursday. Yep would be a higher high So can you have a pullback going off if you're thinking about puts in here? It's probably a bad idea I'll put it that way right all right, so But you know, I guess if you I don't know how the pullback's gonna work You know if you get it you get a 10-day trend up around, you know close to 1.2 That's not an ideal short period. You know if you're down around point eight. Yeah, maybe but not up around 1.2 And so don't get buried, but did you get that other chart? I have it up right now. Yes. I do. That's the the vvi x Slash vixx. That's what I have up. Okay. All right, okay this this chart If you look at the first light blue area, okay Time of April May time period tested the February high as the market went sideways. Yes, and we talked on your radio. I'm thinking now We're gonna go higher the reason why higher because of this ratio the vvi x the vixx ratio It was breaking out to new highs and so currently The left hand blue area currently we're testing the October highs right now on The SMPs and if you notice that ratio is making higher highs same situation We had back in the April May period test in the February highs. I see that whether yeah, so there's a mild consolidation coming You know, we're probably gonna start breaking up again So I don't know how big the consolidation is but in my opinion should be pretty minor according to the eight-day Eight days up in a row or seven days up in a row and he had a trend of 1.18 Which you're neither one is buried plus a bullish divergence on the bvi x vixx ratio so, you know Don't know what next week plus. There's another city to next week Is it 10th week is week of the year is it can't yeah, man You get so many statistics of it's so cool. I love it Yeah, yeah, I should get a life or something You know, no, so so watch this folks. This is kind of intriguing. It was really intriguing because you know If we have this S&P up seven or eight days in a row, you got a hundred percent of five days later We're talking like next Wednesday to Thursday You know so so picture it'd be kind of cool if you did have some sort of a pullback you know and Then all of a sudden, you know for some reason, you know, you got an expansion, you know topside I mean that as soon as Paul was talking about it Paul was talking at 2 o'clock today Tim and the IMF and He was much more hawkish than he was even when the Fed basically came out with their You know statement last week. Yeah, just stay right there It's him stay right there folks gonna shot break Tim and I gonna be coming right back We have that out on 236 Nasdaq up 136 S&P's off 39 Tim and I come right back folks Well, welcome back folks Tim or Tom over and we do appreciate your growl on a problem with us We have that out and I was trading down to 240 and as I got one 40 S&P's are off 39 And the chart that we're looking at right now is the the vvix slash vix So yeah, I just sent you another chart on gold. Okay, Jacob get it. Yep I'll bill. Let's see. We will we will get that we will get that beautiful one two three. Okay Let's see I'll get them. It's yeah, go ahead inflation deflation ratio. Yep. Okay. That's all right here one second All right, you can start talking about it. He'll get it right over to me. All right All right. Yeah, I sent it a couple just a minute ago. Okay, I thought this is worth covering because this is a pretty rare It's a it's Martin Pring's inflation deflation ratio Martin Pring's been around Longer than I have yeah a long time at both of us So if he's a yeah, I came up with this ratio actually don't know what the internals are But over time his work this chart goes back to mid 2015 and I marked the times This is on a weekly time frame so Yeah, it's on a weekly time frame and I just use an RS high for it now is that and it did extremely well Picking out the bottoms and actually does pretty well on the tops, too But it does really well at the bottoms and you don't get many signals on this chart But when you do as well as work really good it picked out You get the chart up yet. Not yet Okay, go ahead. That's all right. Just keep talking But anyhow The second window up from the bottom. So when you get to it was I thought I Got it. I got it. Okay. Cool. One second. I got it. There we go. I got it Tim. Go ahead right the last low in August 2022 I have other indicators that said that was an important low Yes, and and I said at one point I said, I don't think that lowest ever We're going to be years for that low is going to be broken and The market rallied up and it's been consoling since about April May of this year We're into a kind of a sideways pattern and we had a sign of strength over here a few weeks ago Yes, last couple weeks Marcus just been consoling or in that consolidation The RS I this is on a weekly time frame. So these So you have to have quite a bit of pressure off all the way through the week even though price damage was really not much in GDX or XEU that inflation Deflation ratio on a weekly time frame went through the floor And that's really a good thing if you're bullish because if you look at the RSI it has to get below 30 as Of last week it was 28.89. So it's blow 30 right now to get the signal. You have to close back above 30 But usually 30 is pretty much where it turns around at So I don't know if we're going to rally this week or not, but if it does These signals if you look back You know that they come maybe once a year at most okay So so it's a rare signal last time we had a signal was August 2022 Which was correct the market went up and now we got another signal that we're November of 2023 I say we're getting in the process of getting a signal We need to close above 30 now to have that triggered But these signals are multi month signals are not like a week or two They're multi month and sometimes they can you know last a long time that the one in 2019 You know one straight up for about six months. We kind of get Back and forth, but anyhow, or the way of 2016 was straight up for Yeah, that was a beauty. Oh, that was a nice one. You know, that's the other signal type things that Are suggesting something close to happening here. Yeah, because if you take a look at this folks Look at this for a second the GDX went from 17 to 45 That's the 2016 one that was a beautiful run. Yeah, yeah, that's the last big run Really? Yeah, it is the last big run we got right Yeah, so so we got that going on right now So I guess let me ask you this what we don't know in inside of this signal What you just said is that how does he get the the correlation of the inflation deflation deal, right? We don't we just know that this is how this works, right? Is that correct? Right? That's how it works Yeah, I probably should look at the definition what he's got in there. I don't know That's all right. I was just curious right something with it, right? But it's like anything it's acceleration, you know a lot of these signals are generated through acceleration of these These are ratios and stuff like that. Yes, that's what the trading public is missing You know, they're all looking at moving averages or right Trin lines up and down stuff, you know, the true meaning of the market a lot of times if it gets Accelerated in one direction too far is going to snap back to a norm. Yes, and That's what this inflation deflation ratio is all about. It's just gone down too fast too quick It's going to snap back to a norm and and so it's it's it's kind of opened my eyes Of how to look at the markets and I agree Allerations and ratios and stuff is you know, and the trend lines is kind of like the old the old new this It's the old theory. This is a step forward I think you know price and volume is still very important but The acceleration of the ratios and stuff is that carries a bigger story I think what the the market is going to do no, I agree I agreed Tim particularly because see the ratios that you're actually using a Very important because that you know like when you're talking the TLT Well the bond market is literally, you know, who knows a hundred times bigger than the stock market So you got a correlation there inside and then you have the fair gauge on the other side So I can see that in a second man, you know that they they're all relevant Because there's not just one thing, you know that is moving markets. I mean that that's that's the reality I mean, you know, you you have all these different things that are moving markets Particularly, it's just a movement of money, right and those ratios are showing, you know Bottom line is that one there's more fear when there's more greed, you know, because some of the remember folks, okay These ratios work on the upside also. This is what's so cool about this, you know Yeah, it's not a one-way scene which you know is very important, you know Because there's plenty of things that can work on a one-way deal, but you know when you get both sides of The correlation it's awesome because it's like, okay, when you're supposed to get out Well, you know, we know that you got out in July Why you get up in July because that ratio was basically saying hey, you know You better get out man because pretty soon we're gonna be going down and pretty soon was basically about five to ten day trading days later folks, okay, so Yeah, yeah, you know matter of fact, you know the Last chart, you know in chart five on our discussion today was that TLT to VBX ratio Getting up plus 40, you know, and that ratio hit there yesterday So what the market do today, you know go without so right? I mean it gets pretty close to wherever you need to do, you know, so I mean it's It's a you know how far it's going down. I don't think it's gonna go down much You're gonna be a little scared here and you know, maybe we fill a gap or something Which you know if you look at the SPY's there is some gaps below it Oh, hey listen man, you know, I got questions to him about a three-gap play now wouldn't that be sweet? Yeah, we did have a tree yeah, yeah go all the way back down. Yeah, so folks. I'll just do this quick Tim and I have traded three gap plays many times when the only X was there and these are something else man I mean if we get lucky enough for that Tim, it's gonna be pretty wild man Well listen Tim, it's always a pleasure. You have a great weekend a safe weekend We look forward speaking to on Tuesday All right, love you man. Love you man, and I'll go through this three-gap play as soon as we come back folks Welcome back folks who's Tim and I we just talked about three-gap play so this is how this works folks So we had three gaps on the way up, you know bottom line is that you had a couple signs of strength, right? So you get one small one a larger one and a larger one, right? So what happens with a three-gap play is this is that you get to the high Then you come back and you fill all of them you come all the way right back down Okay, now as long as you do that with lighter volume, okay, and What's happening here? We have lighter volume out here today You're going into 102 million chairs and you get 69 as long as you do that with lighter volume What you have is that at that point there at the bottom. That's the buy Because the way the gaps work when you get a three-gap play like that that the three-gap play Is the trend is higher if you had we have three gap plays lower That's that's how that works and they're phenomenal plays You know when you can get it right because what ends up happening two different things end up happening Just as we went up if it's going to be a three-gap play you're going to fill these very quickly that's what I've seen these layout here for like two and a half weeks at the highs before they do it but when they do it it's phenomenal because they come back down and You know when Tim and I would play in these a lot because there's a lot of these in the 90s We were playing in the option market because if we come back down that all of a sudden it's oh my god You know, yeah, your risk is very low versus your reward because what ends up happening all you have to do is put your stop underneath the last gap and You know, you know we go from there But that's how a three-gap play works the biggest thing to get out of that is that whatever way that you actually gap That's where the trend is going as long as you do pull back and you're pulling back with light of volume That gives you the verification that this market still wants higher price You get a fast and furious on the way down you get price price destruction without volume folks is one of the best buys out here Okay, they're very hard to buy. Don't get me wrong because when you get fast price destruction, you know, it's like oh man What's going on? Always remember folks the bank and claw your heart out the bull can run you over and thank God There's always another trade health happens in prosperity. Have a great night folks Have a safe night come back and visit Tommy tomorrow morning kicks us off 9 a.m. Great show folks Look at him folks