 Hey, everybody, what's going on? I am Greg Sussman joined today by Jim Sonos of Fandle, who's here to help us break down week 12 from a DFS perspective. What's happening, Jim? I'm excited, Greg. It is a bad quarterback week. A lot of guys who have struggled so far this year are in plus matchups, which should be pretty fun. So I'm excited to talk about them and talk about this slate. How are you doing today? I'm doing fantastically. I'm ready to rock, ready to look forward for week 12, ready to get back to it. So let's begin with your favorite snack of the week in the Balsa Atlanta Falcons, who have been playing really well as a blade. So this week you're matching up Matt Ryan and Julio Jones against the Bucks. What more is there to say? Yeah, there's really not a whole lot. We know that the Bucks try to encourage teams to pass against them because they're very good against the rush and not that good against the pass. And obviously the Falcons are a desirable spot. Now, people will look at Julio Jones's record against the Buccaneers and say, we should use him because of that. But honestly, that doesn't matter because it's a different team, different offense around him, and the Bucks are a different team. The reason we should want to use Julio Jones is because he's good and because he's been getting a lot of volume recently. If we look at the three games, since Mohammed's the new left, Julio Jones has 27% of the Falcons overall targets to go with 56% of their deep targets in that time. He's been getting fed, and that was true last week too with Austin Hooper being out. They just announced earlier that Austin Hooper will miss once again this week, which should guarantee that Julio's gonna get a lot of volume against the 24th ranked pass defense. And they're much worse if you take sacks out of the equation. So Julio definitely in play. He is $8,400, Matt Ryan, $7,900. He is at home, he is facing a bad pass defense, and Matt Ryan has been good this entire year. Now, it does matter for Matt Ryan that his pass catchers have been depleted, but he's still got, he's still got Julio Jones, still got Calvin Ridley, so I think that it's still okay to go with Matt Ryan here, and what should be a pretty fun game. So Ryan at 79 makes sense, as does Julio. I would say Calvin Ridley is still a bit underpriced honestly at $6,700, so I would never talk you out of him, but Julio is primed for a blow up here pretty soon. He's getting tons of deep volume against the Bucks. He is more likely to convert on that. So I am not gonna go with Julio because he's done well against the Bucks. I'm going there because he's been getting a lot of volume and he is more likely to convert on that volume. So I think Julio Jones' week may finally be here in week number 12. You know it's coming. It's only matter of time before the Julio blow up week against the Bucks. The history may not be great, but that's fine. This secondary is brutal. Matt Ryan paired with Julio Jones at these prices and makes all the sense in the world. They're who are being locked into my lineup and they should be locked into yours as well. But if you don't like Matt Ryan and Julio Jones, that combination, or the other side where James Winston and Mike Evans, they make sense. But I gotta throw this out there to you, Jim. The Atlanta secondaries played a lot better as of late, especially coming out of the buy. They certainly have. And I think that's something to keep in mind here. And I think that that's a good enough reason to not use James Winston and Mike Evans in cash games because Evans is very expensive and we want to prioritize expensive running backs and Winston has a bad floor because he will occasionally fumble and throw picks. And by occasionally, I mean pretty often. Those are reasons why we can lower the Bucks for cash games. But for tournaments, we can still go here because when we go to James Winston and Mike Evans, we're not going there for efficiency. We are going there for volume and that volume should be there when they are on the road and facing the Atlanta Falcons. Additionally, we can look at those two games to the Falcons and be totally off of using teams against them, but that Saints game was a pretty big rivalry. Maybe we can justify it that way. And Kyle Allen played terribly against the Saints as well or against the Falcons as well, independent of the defense playing well. And we look at defenses, defense is harder to predict. It's less sticky than offense. It's a two game sample here for the Falcons. So I believe they are probably a significant amount better than what they were before there by. I'm not ready to say they were a defense we need to avoid in tournaments just yet. The personnel is still lacking with Keanu Neal being out. So I think that's definitely a plus for the Bucks here. And I think that if it lowers the interest in people and using God's like Winston and Evans, that's even more beneficial for us because Winston is just $7,600. That's a really good number for a guy who should be throwing the ball quite a bit this weekend. And Evans is down to $8,000. He's had some struggles recently in the past two games, but the yardage is still been there. 69 yards last week, he was over 80 yards a week before that. He has 41% of the deep targets this year and 35% of the red zone targets. So the bulk ability is still there for Mike Evans. Even we do assume that this Falcons defense is better than what they were before. And because of that, I still want to go at this stack. Again, we should lower expectations for the Bucks, given what the Falcons have done the past two weeks, but that does not mean we should avoid them entirely. So I think that this Bucks team still makes a lot of sense. And I really do hope that the interest in them is lowered because of what the Falcons have done the past two weeks. I think it's possible. I think you're going to get a bit of a mismatch here with the ownership levels with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers because people will be scared off by what the Falcons secondary has done and James Winston and all those interceptions as well. Mike Evans has played well over his last several games. And I think if he and James can get on the same page and we can dominate the Falcons secondary like we did earlier in the year, this is a nice spot where they'll probably be under owned and maybe worth putting in a few lineups. Moving on from this game, let's get to Cleveland where we've been waiting for the Odell Beckham blow-up game for a while. Pair him with Baker Mayfield this week against the Dolphins and it's a nice combination. If Odell goes another inch, he has a touchdown and it's a much different outlook going into this week than we currently have. A lot of people are back on the Baker Mayfield hype train this week. What say you? Count me in as well because this Browns offense has faced a really, really tough schedule so far this year. If you look at adjusted pass defense numbers over on Number Fire, this will be the second time all year in now 11 games where the Browns have faced a team outside the top 20 in pass defense and the Dolphins are dead last. So they have had nine games against top 20 pass defense is just one against worst pass defense. So one game against a team right outside the top 20 and that is while facing the first, second, third, sixth and 12th rank pass defense this year and four of those five games came on the road. This time they are at home. They're facing the 32nd rank pass defense and there is no question. This is the best spot the Browns have been in this entire year. Once you adjust to the schedule the Browns have faced they're actually the 16th rank passing offense in the league based on Number Fire's metrics. So they actually have not been nearly as bad as Perception. They've not been good. You know, 16th is not great but they haven't been as bad as Perception. That puts me on Baker me until that $7,500 and I think that it makes sense for O'Dell Beckham too. If we look at the two games that Kareem Hunt has played he's gotten a lot of volume. We still see Beckham get 33% of the Browns targets in those two games. He is getting almost all the deep work and we're getting him here at $7,000. The volume has been there for Beckham all year long but the efficiency hasn't been part of that's been because he and Baker have not been necessarily on the same page but it's also been due to tough matchups. You will not have a tough matchup this weekend. So I think if I had one tournament lineup I'd have a hard time not plugging in Beckham. I think it would make a lot of sense to pair him with Baker Mayfield as well. On the train here with the Cleveland Browns going up against the Dalfins, Baker Mayfield pairing up with O'Dell Beckham Jr. as solid as they come theoretically this week against Miami. Moving on we go to the New Orleans Saints where your parent Alvin Kamara with the Saints defense Panthers offense taking step backs in recent weeks. Kyle Allen throwing all of those interceptions last week can the Saints secondary make him do it again? Yeah, I think what we saw last week from the Saints is pretty encouraging because there was no Marshawn Lattimore in that game and they still played well. Marshawn Lattimore may not be back here but I think that even with that being the case it's Kyle Allen going on the road and when you adjust to the schedule the Panthers have faced so far this year they are the 31st ranked passing offense in terms of efficiency which sets the Saints defense up really well. We also saw last week what the Saints will do with their running backs when they're in a positive script. We haven't really seen that since Alvin Kamara came back from his injury and we saw it last week and yeah his snap rate did go down to 61% but the usage was still there. Kamara had 13 carries and 10 targets. 13 carries is not a lot but 10 targets for a running back is equivalent to 20 carries if you adjust for the value in a target relative to a carry and that's a lot of work for a guy who is hyper efficient running behind a good offense line and tied to a very good quarterback. So if you guarantee me a similar workload for Alvin Kamara this week I think he makes a lot of sense at $8,300. Now the raw touch total I think is enough where you don't need to target Kamara in cash games. You can target him there but I don't think you have to but as far as tournaments go this guy always has multi-touch down upside and he can turn any of those targets into a long game. So Alvin Kamara I think last week made me feel a lot better about him from a usage perspective even if the Saints do get ahead here which is why I'm willing to pair him with the Saints defense. Both options are very costly so it's not easy to get there but I think given the struggles that Panther's offense has had and given the usage Kamara had last week it's a stack that has good odds of paying off. As long as that usage is there for Alvin Kamara you're in a good spot. The New Orleans Saints defense as Jim mentioned, look back and if last week is any indication there's someone that you can rely on going forward certainly this week against Carolina and the interception machine Kyle Allen you gotta like the New Orleans Saints especially Alvin Kamara. Up next we get to the New York Jets I was waiting for this one Sam Darnold, Jameson Crowder facing off against the Raiders Secondary that certainly has been leaky. Crowder has been really good whenever Sam Darnold's in the lineup and Darnold as soon as the schedule of the ease is up has obviously looked better of late as well. Darnold and Crowder this is an easy one if you wanna go down and not spend the money up for the Atlanta guys. Yeah I agree because the Jets are in a good spot from a fantasy perspective because what they are this weekend is they are a home favorite who is a slight underdog against a bad pass defense. What that means is they'll probably get a good amount of volume from a passing perspective and they should be efficient in that volume which is exactly what we want for Sam Darnold at $7,400 facing the 27th ranked pass defense that the Raiders did perform well last weekend but they're facing Ryan Finley at home. Now they're on the road and facing the Jets and yeah Sam Darnold has been volatile and he has failed to come through even in a good match up against the Dolphins but he has also shown good upside, good volatility and the ability to have a ceiling gain which I think is what we want out of a quarterback regardless of salary do that with Darnold here at $7,400. I like him a lot as far as stacking him. You could go back to Robbie Anderson but the volume just has not been there. I think that he's still intriguing but I mean Jameson Crowder is $6,500 and he has had an awesome role whenever Darnold has played exactly as you said. Crowder in the games that Darnold has played has 26% of the team's targets partially inflated by that Buffalo game where he had 17 targets but even since Darnold came back we've seen Crowder getting a lot of targets and some of those have been downfield as well which has allowed Crowder to have some yardage. He has had 75 or more yards in three straight games. He has had at least 75 yards, five total times this year, five out of seven games Darnold has played so we don't think of Crowder as being a big yardage guy but the yardage has been there which gives him upside especially for $6,500. So this is a script that sets up well for a lot of pass attempts to the Jets and it sets up for efficient pass attempts and Crowder has been the best piece in this passing offense so I think that when you're going with Darnold you can get some thought to Robbie Anderson but with the volume Crowder is getting it's really hard for me to turn him down at $6,500. Like you said, an easy spot for the New York Jets this week at home against the Raiders team that's vulnerable. Raiders are riding high right now. Jets, well they're playing pretty well as well. They're in a good spot here. Take advantage with James and Crowder and Sam Darnold. One last stack to get to and that brings us to the Seattle Seahawks. Coming off of bye, you're pairing Russell Wilson with DK Metcalf is because we're still questionable about Tyler Lockett or is just the fact that they're facing an eagle secondary that has proven to be vulnerable all season long. It's a bit of a combination of both but I think that DK Metcalf is a good option even if Tyler Lockett does play because we've seen now three games since we'll dis or a couple of games since we'll disly got hurt I believe it's four games since disly got hurt and Metcalf's volume has been good in that sample even while playing alongside Tyler Lockett. In those games of that will disly Metcalf's target share is 25%. He's averaging just a hair under two deep targets per game, he's getting work in the red zone too. So even while playing alongside Tyler Lockett Metcalf has been really good and then getting a lot of volume. If we, you know, take Lockett out of the equation or simply just lower him a bit that would bode well for additional volume for DK Metcalf. He is $6,700. And I think that when you're getting that many high leverage targets for that salary it's really hard to pass up. I think this Eagles defense as I've gotten healthier has gotten a lot better but they're also facing Russell Wilson. Russell Wilson is efficient against pretty much any defense. I think that Wilson makes a lot of sense here as well. I should not be talking into him but I think that Wilson is always a fun guy when his odds of having to pass are a little bit higher. This time he is on the road. He is facing Philadelphia as a two point underdog and a lot has shifted in favor of Seattle. So maybe won't be a two point dog on Sunday but it's still a script where we should not expect the Seahawks to get a lead and then just grind, grind clock with Chris Carson. That is great for Russell Wilson. I hope that Alshon Jeffery is able to play here because that would be better from a shootout perspective. Hopefully we can get the Eagles to score some points too and keep the Seahawks passing. But I think overall it's still a good spot to go at the Seahawks passing offense. Lockett makes sense that he can go. He had $7,400 but I'm also okay taking those savings, jumping down to DK Metcalf at $6,7000 and locking him in with Russell Wilson. The savings you get from lockett to Metcalf, especially with Metcalf being healthy and locking at this point in the season, makes a lot of sense. And as you said, when you get a passing spot for Russell Wilson, we got to take advantage. That's what we have this week, hopefully against Philly. And as you mentioned, we want to get that back and forth game that keeps Russell Wilson passing. Otherwise, Brian Schottenheimer will bring this offense into a shell and we'll go back to the old Chris Carson, Seattle Seahawks defense stack. That's gonna do it for us here on the hurry of Jim. It's been a blast. It's been so much fun. We should do it again tomorrow. Yeah, why not? We'll talk some values tomorrow. Should be a good slate for that too. And I think it should be a fun slate overall. So looking forward to it, Greg, and we'll talk to you again tomorrow. Undervalued plays is the story for tomorrow. We hope to have you here. For Jim Sannes, I'm Greg Sussman. Have a great night. We'll see you back here tomorrow.