 be very cautious for tomorrow. Again, you don't need to trade every single day. And if you are trading tomorrow, again, maybe trade a quarter size, third size. Welcome to Access to Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, good evening, everybody. Welcome to another edition of the Access to Trader.com, that wrap up show. Hope everybody's doing well. Hope everybody had a good day. So let's talk about the market, let's talk about labels. People always throw around labels. Too short, too tall, too fat, too skinny. Market is exactly the same way. People always do this bullish markets, bearish markets. Sometimes a market is just a market, right? And we've been in this really great bull cycle, very, very, very strong, very aggressive, but very, very linear, right? I think, again, if you've been watching this broadcast, you kind of know what's going on right now. And sometimes the market just gets tired, right? The way, and I talked about this from time to time, and I kind of went over this in the webinar today, it's like, imagine you run a marathon, right? You run a marathon, you run 26 miles, you train for it. Everything is all good, you finish it, you throw your hands up, you're very excited to get the water and you're like, wow, I can't wait to rest. This is great, I accomplished it. And then somebody tells you, hey, by the way, it's not a marathon, it's a triathlon. You still have five miles of swimming and you still have like 30 miles of biking, right? A little bit of depleting. Doesn't take away from what you did, but a little bit of deflated because again, you just realize, well, wait a minute, I thought I got to the goal line and there's more to go. And this is kind of what the market's been. I think a lot of people try to overthink, right? And overthink and over contemplating their minds what exactly is going on. And they wanna call tops and they wanna call bottoms and this stock and this is this and this is that. Sometimes the market is just the market, right? The market's job from 9.30 in the morning to four o'clock PM Easter standard time is just to function as an orderly area, macro, micro and everything in between for investors and traders to kind of dance between the lines. And hopefully if you are kind of in the area of expertise, you kind of know what the hell you're doing when you're trying to take out more than you give back. And a lot of people look at this tape as, the market is there for their entitlements. The market has to give you something. The market needs to give you something. The market is always gonna give you opportunity. As much as you think that is the case, a lot of times the market is just the market. The market is tired and the market is exhausted from a linear move. And that doesn't mean the market is waiting for this massive pullback and the market's going back underneath the 50 day moving average. Sometimes it means, you know what? It's just an average Tuesday. And you wanna just label it as an average Tuesday. A lot of times people will try to turn around and say, well, I know what's gonna happen. I know what's gonna happen tomorrow, right? None of us do, right? And everybody who pretends and thinks and tries to echo the point that they know what's gonna happen tomorrow, you better leverage everything you have behind that notion and go on that side of the market. Because if you don't, nobody knows anything. And the point is we have our diligence, we have our sentiment, kind of we check the temperature of the sentiment, we do our research at night, we formulate a game plan. And then if we are lucky, our game plan flows very, very smoothly. Everything confirms and we make it to the next day, again, AKA we stay in business. And today was just one of those days that the stocks got, you know, were very strong at the open. The game plan was pretty aggressive at the open. And then the market got time. And that's all it is. We don't wanna use this as a label. The market just got tired. And to turn around and say, well, this is definitely the top. We're gonna roll over tomorrow. Maybe we will, maybe we won't, right? And if you've been kind of saying that for the last, you know, for the last two months since we've reclaimed the 50 day moving average, you're probably underwater and you're probably sitting behind the April. Like again, for us to try to be so arrogant and so, you know, just so out there to think that we can predict what's gonna happen tomorrow is crazy. Can we get prepared for it? Absolutely. Can we do our research with a fine two cone? Absolutely, right? It is nothing more. There's nothing more better than you being in control of your trading. But for an environment like this, that's been punishing shorts on any weakness or literally any weakness, the most important part is when things start to get, you know, a little bit heavy. And I think that's where it was today. Things started getting a little bit heavy, maybe too much, too soon, too fast, whatever adjective you wanna use. You know, at this point, you're not starting to get to the bear case, but you are starting to get a little more defensive. You start maybe from days, maybe you wouldn't look at on an average day, maybe you wouldn't look at any shorts. Maybe you start looking at some shorts, look at, start looking at the areas of the market that you know what didn't participate in the last move or maybe participated two, three months ago, but just kind of just sitting in a channel and never got above water and just starting to break down. There's a lot of stocks like that, right? Maybe they wouldn't be obvious to you, but there are a lot of names. So for example, names like an AMC, I know again, we've been seeing pretty aggressive put buying now for a while now, right? And again, I wanna kind of talk about this from the most neutral point of view of all, okay? What do they call it? The apes, the diamond hands, whatever they call it, right? It's not to offend you. It's not to offend the short sellers. We're kind of just kind of look at the chart, right? Kind of look at the chart and for what it is. The movie business, it is what it is, right? Disney came out with great numbers, 80 million domestically, only 20 million came out of it on the movie theaters. Are movie theaters the future? Probably not, right? We all know this. You can say what you want, the movie theater's not the future. Now our job is to look at this thing from a totally unbiased, pure technical point of view, right? This is the lowest close in this whole formation. Everybody see that, right? This is literally the lowest close in this whole formation here. 3760 was the low here and this is literally the lowest close and it's traded right below this channel here. And we started watching today, you started seeing really, really aggressive put buying coming in in the 35 weeklies in the 30 weeklies in the September, also 30 weekly puts. They're coming in pretty aggressively from a non-biased point of view. And again, I will be definitely, definitely looking at this thing tomorrow. If this thing confirms this whole channel here, there's a lot of room down. Say what you want. I understand people are very, very emotional about this thing. Say what you want. Technical analysis is the only thing that matters. So if I'm wrong, this thing gaps up to more than three, four dollars. What's the difference, right? What's the difference? It cares about being right or wrong. The point is when you put your money on the line, you better believe that technical analysis needs to be behind your back. And if this whole channel starts, really starts getting penetrated and they start building below this channel, well then this thing loses the 50 day moving average and then you have a lot of room down. Same thing with a stock like GameStop. And you'll see, again, GameStop, it's a big, phenomenal job of staying up as long as possible. Stock went to 300. The stock is still a 180. But now again, you're starting to look at ranges, right? And you can see here, it held this whole range here several times, right? It held the whole range here several times. And the same thing as AMC. And again, one is not really the same as the other. But again, it's kind of tied into this whole, ape, schmape, schmuck, whatever the hell they call themselves. And if this thing starts losing the bottom of the channel here, again, there's a lot of room down as well. So from a non-bias point of view, and if you believe in the theory that stocks trade from supply to supply to demand to demand, then those levels that we just talked about here, you have to pay attention to, especially if you are a bull and you're sitting there helpless and you're kind of wondering and hoping, are these stocks gonna recover? Are they gonna go higher? Maybe they will, maybe they will. We don't know, right? But the one thing that we do know is tomorrow morning, you're probably gonna have a definitive answer from order flow, right? From order flow, not only the options market, but from the equities market as well. And if one group sees control of the bottom of the range or holds the bottom of the range, then that's probably going to be the short-term bottom and make a balance or the short-term area where the new leg down is going to form. And based on the option activity that we saw now for the last two, three days, especially in a name like AMC, again, gun them ahead. And again, there is no gun to my head, if this range starts falling to the downside, you're going to have a lot more room down. And again, if you look at a lot of the other names, especially the Nasdaq names that had big runs, is it possible they finally get a rest? Right, sure, I think so, right? I mean, if you look at a name like a Roku, right? Roku's just holding on to the five-day moving average. Again, nobody's calling for destruction of equity prices. But again, if this channel here, and if you look at the 60 minute, right? If this whole channel here confirms, can it get a move down to 4.11, 4.12? Sure, why not? If you look at Zoom, right, look at Zoom. Zoom is holding on to this rising support. Now for four days in a row, it's held this rising support. Look at the 60 minute. If this thing starts losing this whole rising support, why can't Zoom come in for a pretty good trade? Again, there's a difference between being a perma bear and saying, everything's going to zero, the country's going to zero, everybody's going to zero, blah, blah, blah, blah, everybody dies, right? Again, you could trade both sides of the market. You could still be friends with bulls, you could still be friends with bears. Technical analysis doesn't have any friends. Technical analysis is pretty cut and dry. There is no gray area here. Either bulls clean up supply and stocks go higher, or bears clean up demand and stocks go lower. And I think going into tomorrow's session based on how, just call it timing, right? Again, without the whole labels, just call the market tired. I think you have to have, you know, both sides of the market to be prepared for, okay? Are there some longs that look pretty interesting? Yeah, there's some longs. I still kind of like this checkpoint held up pretty well. Maybe it finally wakes up tomorrow after the big run on Friday. It's kind of going sideways a little bit. Yeah, that looks pretty good. Maybe a name like FISV, right? It's coming out of the bottom channel if it confirms. Maybe, you know, maybe it gives another two, three dollars to the upside, but there's a lot of names that tire as well, okay? Tesla had a nice run today with the bottom channel, red to green continuation of yesterday's move. But again, look at Tesla, right? You're talking about Tesla had a run from 620 to 695, right? 620 to 694 in three days. It needs to rest, right? Nobody says it's going back to 500, 300, 200 Tesla Q. Nope, nobody's saying any of that. The point is the stock is tired. Look at the NASDAQ 100 as a whole. The Q's just ran from 354 to three, almost 366. Just talking about 11, 12 point move in four days. That's a lot, right? Again, the whole theory of marathon, I finished a marathon, well, wait a minute, it's a triathlon, you still have two stages left. Stocks don't go straight down, stocks don't go straight up. There's a process of rest, there's a process of consolidation. And maybe tomorrow's session is not one of the greatest sessions of all time, because again, stocks are tired, doesn't mean they're gonna implode, right? And stocks that, you know, are still sitting there, doesn't mean they're gonna explode, but they might be tired. And what tired means are smaller channels, right? They might start to contract even more, okay? And you might have another day, maybe a two day cycle that the market just rests. Maybe it goes up, maybe it goes down, maybe it goes absolute sideways, but this is where being a trader for a very, very long time, some of you guys are only trading for a year, two years, three years, you don't know the difference between going aggressive and macro channels confirmation, then market being very, very tired. And again, the same day does not exist, okay? As we say all the time, one day you can have like a Jacob DeGrom come out there and pitch, you know, nine innings, give up zero runs, and the next day they throw out some other pitcher and he gives up seven runs in an inning and a third. Every single day is different. Momentum is only as good as the average who range. And based on what we're seeing here, again, is it possible we could have a res day? Absolutely. I am definitely prepared for at least the day that potentially I'm gonna watch the opening range lows. If some of these opening range lows start to confirm, I do believe there'll be some channels to the downside that we could take advantage of, you know, like a Zoom, right? Like a Zoom, for example, obviously like an AMC, obviously like a GME, you know, even a name like Splunk, right? Even the name like Splunk really hasn't rallied, you know, had a big, big run and that was just kind of holding onto its channel as well. So I think tomorrow you have to be flexible. I think tomorrow it's very, very important. Be open-minded at, like I say all the time, especially in the webinar, you don't need to trade every day. You definitely don't need to trade every day aggressively. Not every single day is going to be in your sweet spot. Okay. And it's very, very important to kind of identify what type of day it is going to be before it happens. So going into tomorrow, I'm not gonna be shocked if we have a slower day, if channels are slower and it feels like it's two o'clock in the afternoon when it's only 11 o'clock in the morning. I get it, right? You know, this isn't my first rodeo. I've seen what happens. But if you're a new trader, nobody sits down to you and tries to explain, hey, by the way, you can't drive your vehicle one speed every single day. That's when you start to turn around and believe that every single day is equally advantageous and you're gonna find out very, very quickly your role. And all those little paper cuts, right? That you should be getting or trying to avoid, then they start turning into a severed head because you're trading a two, seven offsuit the same way you'd be trading a pair of aces if you got dealt that way. So be very cautious for tomorrow. Again, you don't need to trade every single day. And if you are trading tomorrow, again, maybe trade quarter size, third size, wait for channel expansion, right? Isn't that the name of the game? Wait for aces, wait for kings, wait for queens, wait for jacks. Don't trade a two, seven offsuit. And if you are, don't trade it with any meaningful size because again, this whole point of this business is stay around for the premium hands. And if you do your research and look at a lot of charts, you're not gonna, it's gonna be very, very tough for you to find a lot of great value long charts, especially with a potential rest, right? Rest, exhaustion, whatever you wanna call it. And again, there's not a lot of stocks that have been showing technical damage because again, the market's been up since May 20. So be very, very careful. So let's talk about today's pivots. Again, everything basically happened off the open today. CPI came out this morning. I said, keep in line. Look, the market's been on a linear run since May 20. Despite the bulls holding last week, it doesn't mean they will hold today. Again, look at the scoreboard. Let's see what happened at the end of the day. Market doesn't need a reason to pull. Stay away from any overextended names. And again, if you look at over the extended names, the other ones that got pulled first. Nice move here, nice move here on Tesla. There's actually a red to green scenario up above here that we'll talk about in a second. Big move yesterday from that 666 level. Traded all the way up into the 795s this morning. Great job there. It also gave us a chance on the bottom channel to go on the red to green for another seven, eight points. And then the market just kind of died here. Snow, really nice move on snow. 270, 272, we talked about snow yesterday for a resumption date. It's exactly what happened today. Rested yesterday after a big move. 270, 272 big spots. Here was snow, right? Here was snow. It took out the 270, took out the 272 and traded right to the linear regression line we spoke about last night in the video to 275. It's going to reclaim 275 in the future to go higher. But nice move there. Checkpoint I still like for the next couple of days. I'm still watching that. Disney 85 woke up on that CNBC report. Not a big move at all. Disney only ran up like 60 cents or so. It took out 85 and traded up to 85, 60s before it reversed with the rest of the market. PDD got a little bit of strength with the China names. Here is PDD off that 1175, right? Off the 1175, 12 area. Almost went to 15, actually a nice little move. Again, this is my point, guys. Watch for charts that are coming off the bottom, not off the top. There's a lot more meat on that bone. Bill, I still like, never got to the 86 level. CCIV never got to the 2750 level. Tesla, again, for aggressive traders only read the green with a 682 stop. It went red to green and traded all the way up to 693. So a big $7 push right into supply. Good job for you guys, it took it as well. You know, Snow, take on the way up. Overstock, nice move there. Rejected 98, yes, they needs to build. 101 will be the next area. Nice move on overstock. Here was overstock, right? So it took out the 98, took out the 101 and went all the way up to 102.75 before it reversed. Amazon 3660, not a big move at all. 3660 traded up to 3675 and then really got hit along with everything else. Overstock take on the way up, 101. Netflix never reclaimed that 545, 30 second entry. And here's my notes, right? Here's my notes on AMC. Buyers continue to come in for the 38, 35, and September puts any close below 3875 will start the next leg down. Let's definitely watch that opening range below tomorrow, it could get hit very aggressively. So again, guys, learn how to kind of shift speeds, identify what potentially could happen the next business day. And the most important part, folks, stay in business. Guys, have a great night. I'll see a lot of you guys tomorrow.