 What is up everybody? Welcome to week five of the NFL season and a Thursday night game worth Kicking off a week of NFL action for a change. It's been a while. It's been a minute since we've had a really good Thursday night game and tonight we get the Rams and the Seahawks really Really hard to nitpick that one Divisional matchup 53 and a half point total according to Fandall sportsbook two and a half point spread in favor of the road Los Angeles Rams There's plenty to break down for tonight's single-game slate, which is primarily what I'm focusing on so if you have questions about the Fandall single-game slate get those in on the YouTube Chat Facebook Twitter twitch if you have other questions things like props. I have a few props that I've kind of looked at if you have other season long questions, you can ask those but I'm a little more prepared to show you guys my like less simulations for tonight's slate talk about Some strategy for tonight. So again Get those questions in on YouTube Facebook Twitter or twitch and welcome on into the Fandall NFL Q&A for this week I'm your host Brandon Gadoula as I mentioned focusing on this game gonna go over some simulations some some game theory for What happens generally across single-game slates on Fandall whenever we have a Tight spread a total over 50 points. How does that change things? So that's where I'm going to start for tonight. I see a ton of questions jumping in I Question from Tyler. What should I do about Josh Jacobs? I think Josh Jacobs is fine whenever he's healthy They feed him the ball. He played a lot of snaps just kind of tracking that on Monday night The production is not quite what you want it to be But it's also pretty hard overall Nitpick Josh Jacobs you can try to trade them. I don't know what the going rate is gonna be for him I do have a trade value chart that I publish on number fire. It all comes directly from number number fires Season-long projections remaining season projections. I would recommend checking that out up on number fire comm Another question from Josh on Facebook pits or knocks Hard to go against Dawson Knox at this point, however, Calvin Ridley not making a trip to London a Russell gauge also Either unlikely to play or is out so pits could be the de facto number one receiver there So I feel pretty good with Kyle pits. He's still got a good workload They are gonna have to throw him the ball eventually so Kind of hard to fade Dawson Knox, but for me I would lean Kyle pits there Okay, I'm getting a bunch of questions about the Starts it questions. I'll get to those but I want to break down the slate That's what I'm here to do first and foremost So I'll get back to those questions. But again, if you have specifics about tonight's slate Get those questions in but for now I'm gonna jump into a single game slate overview for the Rams and Seahawks from a Fandall DFS perspective For tonight, I always like to start looking at things like Past defense rush defense receiving defense and pay stuff to kind of get expectations for a particular game because games Depend, you know game flow depends on certain things try to look for outlier matchups and there's not a whole lot that pops up here On this slate now one thing that does jump out to me is that these teams are kind of Weak in terms of passing success rate allowed to opposing quarterbacks That means that they're basically giving up consistent production consistent positive plays to opposing quarterbacks That's not really the recipe to stopping Matthew Stafford or Russell Wilson So that is going to be a key for me this for tonight's slate kind of looking in it to You know expecting these teams to move the ball efficiently Against one another which isn't that big of a surprise given the total being over 52 points again on Fandall sportsbook with that tight spread so it could be back and forth So that's something that I'm looking for for tonight the Rams Just kind of the rushing defense overall just kind of rates out as about average a little bit sub par Big question for tonight is going to be Alex Collins and what we do with him at his Fandall salary in the 7,000 range on Fandall Because Chris Carson is questionable to play So I run some simulations based in number fires projections Carson and Collins are kind of at half projections, but there are some question marks around Alex Collins regardless. So That is one thing that I'm kind of looking for for tonight not necessarily going Locking in Alex Collins. I think will be very very popular on Fandall With a good matchup it makes sense with the salary it makes sense But the sheer end upside might not be quite what we want it to be and then from a receiving standpoint the Rams do rate out top 10 in Player level adjusted fantasy points So basically looking at what a player typically does on a per target basis and then what they do against this team The Rams have been good against receivers the Seahawks not quite so good Both teams are about top 12 against tight ends in terms of receiving But they are susceptible to production out of the backfield to running backs and Combined these teams rank about league average in pace, but they've had really up and down paces Overall, they've had you know flashes in the top five top ten Then also some weeks where they really slowed things down One way for this game to be for the under to hit which it you know It's a lofty total on the under can hit it could still be you know, 48 50 points and The under will be hitting in that scenario But we like you know, we like to look at pass rate at number fire a lot And if you look at each team's pre snap win probability between 20 and 80% so basically non garbage time We see that the Seahawks still one or one around the ball. They're 24th in that contextualized pass rate so that could be a reason to be a little bit wary of stacking the passing team the passing offense is here But that's going to be the default build for me for tonight. Anyway Four reasons I'll get into one caveat there is that with Alex Collins kind of getting a lot of hype Not hearing a whole bunch about Daryl Henderson and his role has been awesome But I'm gonna dig into some historical optimal lineup notes based on games that kind of fit this bill over the past Three seasons from 2019 through 2020 look at a games where a total has been at least 50 points with a spread of five points or tighter In this split, we do see that quarterbacks are most commonly the MVP and optimal lineups They get about a 4 percentage point boost relative to the overall sample For running back it it goes down about 8 percentage points And for receiver it ticks up 4 percentage points to the point where receiver actually is a little bit more more common To be the MVP, which is really telling for tonight With multiple multiple receivers who could be in the consideration for MVP again odds are It's gonna be a quarterback, but the biggest leverage spot might be with wide receivers one thing that was noteworthy to me when digging back into these slates is that tight spreads high over unders We get a 50-50 split in terms of MV MVP frequency on favorites and underdogs So that could sort of put us more on the Seahawks. So again our two and a half point Home home underdogs compared to the Rams who are favored So I don't think Russell Wilson is gonna sneak up on anybody, but he would fit the bill as Kind of whenever there is an underdog MVP historically in these similar game scripts. It's been a Quarterback so Russ again not gonna sneak up on anybody, but that's what the data says And then one thing I also always like to look for is just the percentage odds that a kicker makes the optimal lineup Overall, it's about 35% across all these games in this split where there should be more Yardage and touchdowns with a high over under kicker odds go down We typically see kickers make more optimal lineups when there are fewer touchdowns to go around and Teams are settling for field goals. So not quite What we are expecting for tonight with that high over under. So there's just some baseline takeaways for me based on optimal trends and just the matchups for tonight. Okay digging back into some questions here Question from Arthur. Thanks for the help. You're welcome In a full PPR format who sits from Zeke Chase Edmonds James Robinson, Stefan Diggs Tyler Lockett and Cordero Patterson For me, that's gonna be Chase Edmonds Even in a PPR format just because his touchdown upside seems really capped with James Connors role in the red zone James Robinson had a really nice snap right now. I will say Zeke is a bit banged up So you want to keep an eye on that? I would honestly have said possibly Cordero Patterson despite his three touchdown game Because the snap rate for him Has been not that high. I played about 30% of the snaps last week with his breakout game however, I already mentioned Calvin Ridley is not traveling to London and Russell Gage probably not gonna go either So Cordero Patterson shouldn't get some extra volume So out of those guys Chase Edmonds unless of course Zeke is rolled Is rolled out Question from Victor on YouTube favorite MVP for tonight's single game perfect question So I'll jump into my slate simulations here Let me close this out and then I'll go over my slate simulations from Kind of a top-down perspective sorted by median Fandall points and then I'll dig into some other stuff here But Russell Wilson is expected to lead this slate and Fandall points for tonight his salary of 15,500 it does not make him the highest salaried player Had had to stop myself from saying golfer because I usually do these and I'm talking about Golfers when I do the PGA or when I do the Q&A. It's usually PGA, but Russ is projected to score the most of Fandall points for tonight across a thousand slate simulations Followed by Matthew Stafford and we see that Russ is about 33% likely to lead in Fandall points Stafford about 30% so you have those two up. It's about 63% again That's a little bit higher than the historical optimal percentage For quarterbacks, but in terms of project ability His story like it's just easy to project quarterbacks, especially ones who run Russ has been running a little bit not a ton But for me, I think so the the question for The way to answer like your favorite MVP is Who do I think is most likely to finish as the MVP? It's gonna be Russell Wilson Who do I think is kind of a sneakier sort of guy who's not gonna be as popular as he deserves to be? I kind of think it's Daryl Henderson again Everyone's gonna be talking about getting Alex Collins in your line-ups that that savings of 7500 again Carson and the Collins are about half projected right now According to number fire Collins is gonna jump up if Carson's ruled out, but his top score odds probably aren't gonna go over about 67% just because we have seen Travis Homer be mixed in and if you're playing the angle that the Rams Play from ahead we could see more Travis Homer pretty easily So I'm not gonna really be playing Alice Collins at MVP. It's a very contrarian way to go But I think that it's gonna be Daryl Henderson For me as a sneakier MVP his workload has been awesome He plays like 90% of snaps whenever he's healthy. He was at 94% a week one 89% Last week whenever he came back from his injury and then in week two it would have been He played like he played I think literally every snap before he got hurt and then Sony Michelle came in and played That's a really hard workload to avoid and it's very clear that once you be once he came back and was healthy Sony Michelle's week three was not very relevant for week four. So again favorite Chalky MVP pick it's gonna be Wilson over Stafford sneakier MVP play for me. He's gonna be Daryl Henderson for tonight All right scrolling through here So Adam says really engage or both out already yeah, I know I saw that really was out I wasn't 100% sure with gauge it kind of score past him. So if you're out there and you're really looking for Some depth you could consider picking up Alameda Zacchaeus he could probably be their number one there. There's gonna be a single game slate for that on Sunday morning 9 30 Zacchaeus would be interesting. I don't know if Kyle Pitts will get enough usage to be an MVP But that's gonna be a fun slate to go over So Adam's asking on Facebook. What's up with the Seahawks starting running back? Is he gonna be out? So Chris Carson is questionable sounds like it's a game time call last week He basically got his workload cut in half and Alex Collins was very much involved Their reports were basically that he wasn't hurt, but it came out Just just basically overnight That there is an injury. So if he doesn't play Everyone's gonna be going to Alex Collins and I don't disagree with that call But I would also say Not to get over eager out over your skis here because Travis Homer is very much in play Let me see you pull up my stat sheet here and look at just week four for Seattle For now And I'll filter through the running backs and just kind of get a feel for what we saw last week So Alex Collins played 41% of the snaps and this will be small to read for you guys So I'll blow that up 41% of snaps compared to Carson at 46% Six routes for Alex Collins just one for Homer Chris Carson. So again, I said that Travis Homer has a chance to be involved from a Receiving standpoint, which is very much the case. Let me see this full season the full season numbers here Travis Homer so 5.3 routes about 18% for him and his healthy games Collins playing in three games Six routes. So I wouldn't just necessarily say it's a guaranteed lock that Alex Collins has the Chris Carson role through like weeks one one through three when we saw Carson just be the lead back So I can't say if Carson is gonna play It sounds like he's not if he doesn't Alex Collins I'm not gonna say he's a bad Fandall play at 7500 very good play Probably not enough juice for me though to want to play him very frequently at MVP And if we're talking, you know single-game slates, we're talking game theory We're talking, you know, what's most most likely but then also how we can benefit if the most likely doesn't pan out In that situation, I would say Kind of be willing to avoid Alex Collins a little bit and consider Travis Homer Especially if you're playing the angle, you know, maybe you play a Matthew Stafford MVP lineup You say I think the Rams are gonna leave this game Cooper cups gonna score Robert Woods despite all the narratives not gonna be more involved than the normal So there the Seahawks are gonna trail and they're gonna have to throw a lot And I think that actually benefits Travis Homer. So that's a way to play it always with basically every single single game lineup You want to be telling yourself Some sort of narrative so that the game if it plays out the way that you put that you think you can get some you get that leverage so again, it's really hard with Alex Collins because Odds are he's gonna play 60 plus percent of the snaps the salaries really good But everyone's probably gonna be thinking that and so you can benefit a lot if you just say hey I'm gonna avoid the the easiest value of the night Hope he doesn't do a whole lot and then you can benefit if that's the case Question from grim fan on YouTube. Do you think the Bucks beat the Dolphins first probably? Yeah, I'd feel pretty good with that Could be a little bit of an emotional letdown week, but Jacobi Berset's not been particularly good So I would feel pretty solid with that Question from Kyle. Do you expect Ramsey to shadow either of the Seattle receivers? so he hasn't He hasn't been shadowing as much he's actually been playing a lot out of the slot and if Seattle's smart They could put just they could just leave Freddie Swain there And keep DK Metcalfe to lock it on the outside That could be a horrible read, but based on what they've done so far I think Ramsey is at like 55% of his snaps in the slot. So they'll have some match ups But based on what we know through four weeks. I wouldn't expect shadow coverage So that's kind of how I'm playing it I also DK Metcalfe. I wouldn't worry about about the cornerback matchup Tyler lock it maybe not a hundred percent So I'd be a little bit more concerned, but for me DK Metcalfe is a full go One thing I will say kind of while I'm talking about the Seattle receivers Metcalfe and lock it Probably not the strongest correlations. Sometimes it can feel really good You know if we let's say you want to play Alex Collins or you're trying to play the angle of you know, Seattle trailing and So you play Travis Homer get some salary you can get back up to Tyler lock it and DK Metcalfe in that sense You know, they just don't have like their big games don't tend to overlap historically So it's a little bit of something that I would say just to just to be mindful of it can be really enticing to get Lock it in Metcalfe right in that 12,000 range feel a little bit under salad for what they can do and bust open a slate But not a whole lot of my lineups would actually have both for tonight Okay, lots of lots of questions here I got scrolled down to the bottom. I want to make sure I'm checking these out In order Adams is looking at a plug or be because they don't trust Josh Jacobs health. Yeah, I mean Jacobs again when he's out there, he's generally leaned on that's kind of what you get with Josh Jacobs Not someone I've targeted historically in season long leagues just because they don't seem to give him Every single touch that they could give him But yeah, I kind of understand that that mindset there Question from your boy games should I do Kenan Allen and Parker for CD and Anderson? I'm assuming that's Robbie Anderson I Would that's a pretty fair deal Generally in a 2v2. I just want the best player. It's really hard to pick between Allen and CD lamb both are kind of like sort of by lows. I would probably side with CD lamb on that situation so I I'd probably go that route again if that's Robbie Anderson Question from Jerry, how do you think Collins and Higbee? Popularity is looking for me. I think there would be slate breakers along with maybe will disley Yeah, so again, I think Collins will wind up being more pop very popular as a as a flex play on Fandall Provided that we get news that Chris Carson's out You know in advance. I don't think he'll be very popular as an MVP just because the salary is low Again, though, if I ran my simulations with him full I don't particularly I would basically just treat him as Chris Carson and I think Chris Carson has a fine floor generally, but He does not profile as someone who has slate changing upside himself Alex Collins might be I think he's a good running back But He's gonna be a great value play a great great flex play From a baseline floor perspective again I think that he might be a little bit more popular as a flex play than he should be So that's kind of where I am with Collins as for Higbee in disley historically tight ends Really need a particular game script in order to make optimals. I'm not saying that they don't make optimals, but Very very rarely for them to be MVPs The way that you would want to talk yourself into disley and Higbee is kind of more You say hey the Seahawks are they want to be past heavy or they want to be run heavy They want to slow things down If they don't have Chris Carson, they'll price try to slow things down even more So there's not gonna be a ton of yardage. It's gonna be the under therefore. I'm kind of looking at minimal TDs And you're just kind of fading You know the passcatchers specifically Cooper cup here because he gets a lot of his value from touchdowns So if you're playing Higbee, I would probably be a little bit lower on cup try to go that route But yeah, I mean for sure Higbee and disley are very sneaky plays Friday swing as well We've we've seen him be involved Enough to catch a touchdown and again if you're playing the the under that can be enough if you're playing like a 60-point Eruption it's gonna be a little bit harder for the tight ends to get there and someone like Swain who has some more yardage Upside just because historically receivers have more yardage upside And we have Van Jefferson to Sean Jackson these guys can you know catch a 40-yard touchdown and that can be enough so Very good calls on Higbee and disley. Just be careful that you're not getting a little bit ahead of yourself and I Frankly don't even play like Travis Kelsey very often at MVP on Fandall Question from DJ Damien Williams or CEH I'm gonna so we have basically a running back in the best offensive football and DJ I know you're always talking to Jim for MLB We do a heat the heat check podcast Every Thursday going over the slate. I talked in detail. I did a trend on the Bears Efficiency with Justin Fields and Justin Fields has been really really bad Despite that massive gap in offensive efficiency. I would go with Damien Williams Because Clyde Edwards you layer just does not have the role that you want him to have to feel great Especially when you have a better option Such as Damien Williams Jerry says I don't think the captain spot the MVP spot will be a factor Just my thought but Wilson Stafford gonna be popular so Personally, I'll try to fit both in every lineup You can definitely talk yourself into a double quarterback lineup Historically on Fandall, there's not enough cap to go around To get both quarterbacks at a higher rate in the optimals. I'm not saying it doesn't happen. It definitely happens I think if memory serves, it's about 30% the way that that would happen is really hitting on value So that would be one where you'd say maybe You know, it is just like a touchdown from will this Lee or and or Tyler Higby So the receivers at the higher salaries aren't Capitalizing on their high yardage upside and their touchdown upside But the thing is if you have, you know, Cooper Cup Erupt and you have DK Metcalfe erupt You're not gonna have enough salary to go around to get both quarterbacks in I Again, you can see my slate simulations here very clearly. It says these guys are the most likely candidates To finish with a top score, that's always the case just because quarterbacks have a high median projection They have a pretty stable range of outcomes from a standard deviation standpoint. I Would say For me, I do prefer Russ just because he's the underdog So that should help him a little bit on Fandall, but From a Fandall perspective again, it is kind of hard to build around a double quarterback lineup Okay question from Jeffrey PPR need a receiver and a flex Patterson Corey Davis Marquise Brown Devontae Smith That Atlanta Jets game has to be high scoring, right London games are weird they it feels like they either are like a bad Thursday night game or that they do erupt So if you need a receiver and a flex from there, I would go with probably Marquise Brown as the receiver there and Cordero as the flex But that's a pretty good problem to have that's honestly quite equal. I can see the path. Geez. Those are high high ad hoc guys High risk guys high reward guys so You know that one could that one could blow up, but I would I would go with With those two for tonight Adam says I can IR Jacobs later on and get another plug player Yeah, IR spot if you if you guys play in season long leaves without IR spots I'd really tell your commissioner to implement those moving forward. They're very helpful there They make a lot of sense just as swing is a solid play as well, but it's a chance on him, especially out of the slot so yeah again, I Don't know what the Rams are gonna do I don't like to say there's no way that the Rams are just gonna let Jalen Ramsey play on Freddy Swain In the slot just leave it at that but again based on the data. We have the best that I can say is Swain's gonna face Jalen Ramsey a good bit You would have to think that that's not always the case on a hundred percent of his snaps And if they just go away from Jalen Ramsey then Freddy Swain should realistically be a really strong pivot For tonight and I would say that it's 6,500. He's gonna be one of my more popular value plays especially because For a thousand more in salary, you can get to Alex Collins. I Like again single-game slates, you got to think a little bit differently here and be okay saying I'm gonna I'm gonna waste that thousand when I could play Collins and I'm gonna pray I'm gonna play Swain instead. I Hope he gets the touchdown and hope that Collins has a little bit of a more reduced role than anticipated Victor says can you play cup and Henderson together in GPPs? You can Cups a little bit difficult for me compared to other receivers simply because he scores a lot of his scandal points from touchdowns Henderson is gonna do the same just because he's a running back but That's a good That's a really good question and I would say that you can do that and you maybe just kind of play the angle of Hey Henderson scores and you know, they play from ahead He plays 90 percent of snaps cup scores once in his targeted and if you're gonna do that then you got to say I'm not buying into the the higher-risk profiles for Van Jefferson or to Sean Jackson. I'm not buying into Robert Woods now, you know the squeaky wheel narrative getting the grease So I would if I'm gonna go heavy at those two in the same lineups You have to bump down other Rams But I do think that you can do that because the over unders high if the over under was lower and we had Lower expectations with touchdowns. I would say no but with that high total absolutely Question from Michael I got Hollywood and Moss for Melvin Gordon and Sutton. Did I win? Yeah, I love Coral and Sutton his area arts profile is amazing But the quarterback situation is not it I mean Teddy seems to be like he's training in the right direction at least I'm not super high on Melvin Gordon. You would expect you want a to Get more work throughout the season Zach Moss in a really good offense Hollywood honestly could be like a top five receiver the rest of the way if he can catch You know convert on those but absolutely Um Draze asking is ever gonna play so I don't know he has to test negative once more if he does play at 6,000 That's a really strong pivot away from The chalkier plays. I think that a Russ Everett stack makes a lot of sense and you kind of avoid the receivers That's something I've been eyeing up, but here disley. I'm at that same salary very much in play for me For tonight I Know that there are some more questions. I'll try to I'll circle back to these if I don't get to him in the chat Josh is asking Alex Collins or P. Ryan, so it sounds like The Bengals will go with a committee approach. So if we find out that Chris Carson is inactive I would just play Collins and not worry about it too much If you picked up some oddity P around like I did You might not get kind of what you're looking for for For this week, but that's all the time that I have for today again I'll circle back and hit up these Answer some of these questions in the chat, but that's gonna do it for me Best of luck tonight. It's gonna be a fun game. It's always fun to think differently about high scoring games And for me again My favorite MVP of the night is gonna be Russell Wilson, which I know is chalky But my my kind of pivot play is gonna be Daryl Henderson He's probably gonna be a little bit less popular in MVP slot than he deserves to be so thanks for tuning in best of luck Tonight and we'll see you again next week