 and now we do a little Q and A. Let's see. What the hell are we? Banners, get that out of the way, I don't need that. All right. Pick me, okay. I have a question, when someone capitulates, what does it mean? It means they're just done. They're just like, I'm just gonna capitulate. I'm done with this stupid market. They just don't have anything left in the tank and I'm done. What, why do they do this? What do they do? What do they do? Well, they just get away from the market. I think the capitulation is coming. It's already here for a lot of people, actually. There's just some people who are hanging on that are kind of teetering. But I do think that very soon, and like I said before, the price action's not gonna kill people. What's gonna kill people is boredom. Do you wanna sit here and watch Bitcoin chop sideways for two and a half years? No, you don't. You don't. Most of us don't. Do you wanna sit around and listen to the developments that are going on in the crypto space? Some of you do. That's why I do this show. Or do you just think to yourself, you know what? Peace out, I'll see you in about a year and a half and do whatever. I might still, I might, because I would draw it, I might not, but I think that's what it is. So capitulation is just like done, gonna give up. That's it. Block jock, it's a good name. If you run the Twitter space, it's correctly, it will be awesome. Cardano over coffee does it every weekday, 6.30 PST. It's a good time. Guests on a regular are building a cardano. I'll just, I'll check the show out and see how, what they do right and what they do wrong and just steal everything from them. Ah, junk bond. Do you have an opinion on Blackdag? I did not, I'm sorry. Don't know, don't know what, can't. If I don't know what I can tell you, I will not talk about it. Let's see, Niels is just waiting for the minor capitulation. I think we saw someone rise to 18K. Really, it's gonna come down to, of course, the hash rate. You know what's a good place to find some really good Bitcoin data? Look at a Bitcoin. Sweet Mary Jules, I talk about these guys so much, you think they pay me, but they don't and it's free. So, you know what they did, you're getting a great deal. So let's see here, charts, life price, on chain. Nope, balance, no, ah, here we go. Money charts, first things first, the hash rate. Let's see if it's going up or down. So the hash rate, you know, we see just how many Bitcoin miners are on the rise and cranking out all that computational power. The higher it goes, the more Bitcoin miners are on, they're competing for that 10 minute Bitcoin block. You can see that we hit an all-time high November 11th and then we just crashed down. Then for some reason we were able to get back up and now here we are at the price of 16443. Some Bitcoin mining operations, they have everything kind of priced in and they can continue to work. The other ones that are smaller, they shut off. I expect them, I expect the hash rate to drop. Hash rate drops, difficulty level drops, goes into cycles. Puell multiple, this is a good one. The Puell multiple is calculated by dividing the daily issuance of Bitcoins by the 365-day moving average. So all you gotta know is, when's a good time to buy and sell? Well, when it gets to this red area, things are overheated and it's been pretty accurate so far. Like, let's see. This was December 2017, pretty good time to sell. And then, let's see, 2013 around here, didn't do so good of a job over here, but not too bad. This was in the all-time high. It just touched the tip, just the tip. And it was at 59,000, not a bad time to sell. So right now, you can see the daily issuances of Bitcoin, still the same, but down here is the accumulation zone. And you couldn't really go wrong with a 16,000 Bitcoin, 16,443. And let's see what else we got. Hash ribbons indicator. This is just, we had talked about this before, but once the 30-day and the 60-day crossover each other, it's just a good time to buy potentially and it just happened not too long ago. We're in November, yeah, in November. So same thing. As far as capitulation, miners are still gonna be around for a while. But the real question is, you know what the real question is, is who's selling? You wanna see who's selling? There's a great site called CryptoQuant. And I'm gonna sign in, put in my password, one, two, three, four, five. It's not my password. And then let's see, my dashboards, my dashboard, great. Here we go, Bitcoin miner outflow. Let me expand this. This will tell you the miner's wallets when Bitcoin leaves those wallets. So the mean amount of coins per transaction is sent from the miner's wallets themselves. And once miners move their Bitcoin out of their wallets, cold storage, hot storage, whatever, they have cold storage, then there's a good chance that they're probably moving it to sell it unless they just like to move Bitcoin around a lot. It just depends. So we take a look here, blow this up. There's a pretty big sell off beginning of November, November, not too bad actually. November 26th, and just been pretty steady. So yeah, I don't think it's, they've capitulated yet because once you start to see like these big huge spikes, let me refresh that. Let me break this down over here and you can see, wow. December 28th, 2020, correct me if I'm wrong. I think that's about the time that, because look at that, that was a big spike. I believe that's when the Chinese Bitcoin mining ban was in effect. So they had to sell a bunch so they can move it out. But you can see in different times like, wow, I don't think they would do that. Bitcoin price sets almost 50,000 is when you had a big huge sell off. That was in March, 2022. Then a sell off in June when things started to go down pretty heavy. September, big huge one in November. No, that's the one. So yeah, it looks like a little bit of capitulation, not too much. Good question. Nikolai says, you guys still DCA stop for the past month. We'll probably buy something until in a year. My fingers are itching. I still DCA, but it's called micro DCA so I'm not for sure. We did a video on Sunday or Saturday and we just took a look at how much you would make if you would DCA a year after the all-time high. So like we took a look at 2014 was a year after the all-time high of the four-year cycle in 2013. And then we took a look at 2018 and we look at 2022 and how you would do. And then also 2023 versus 2015 versus 2019. And all actuality, all the data told me, told all of us that I was wrong that it's not as, you'd think that just the delicose average just as soon as like the bear market hits which would be like the year after the all-time high but in actuality you do a lot better with a lot less risk if you just cut out the year after the all-time high. So like, if I would have never done any delicose averaging in 2022, thankfully I talked about micro DCA and you can find the video. It's not so bad. I mean, I'll still make out in the end when we hit another bull market, whatever that is. But if I just would have waited a little bit I could have put more money in right now in 2023 which I think is when we're gonna see some really big lows. And that's all I'll say because if I give you a number, it's people freak the freak out. Ah, ah, Daniel says big, Binance should buy Celsius assets and just give us two options, larger haircut and we get our crypto or smaller haircut and we get BNB. Not a bad option actually. I mean, BNB wouldn't be a bad option unless Binance goes down. Then where are we? I go, can I post a loss for 2022 taxes if I had money and I earn a count on Celsius? Great question. What I did is I partnered up with the guys from Coin Ledger and we're gonna do an education series starting in January. We'll do February and March. We'll get the CPAs on and they'll talk to you about what your options are for doing that for taxes. But it's a good question. How do I get this one to pull in your blue screen? It's tough. First of all, you gotta remove this green screen that I have back here. And then of course it's just in my mom's basement, all this stuff. So that's it. Hey, Rob, whether it looks nice in your green scheme here at negative two, jeez, that sucks. Yeah, in Puerto Rico, it's always the same. It's like Groundhog's Day. It's 72 degrees in the morning and it gets around the 80s in the afternoon and it goes down to the 70s at night. That's it. Like just yesterday I was playing sand volleyball. It was awesome. The pool man. That's pretty adequately named for my channel. What happened with DCA? No more James Ben and the Mighty One. So no, I told James like there's no bad blood. It's just that I just said, James, I think I'm done with DCA for a while because it's just, it's so toxic when we get like all our tribes together. Like there's a lot of overlap, you know, for the people who watch me and people watch James, people watch Ben, but it just seems to be like when we all three got together it was just madness. And I was like, I don't think this is really helping anybody, you know? Cause that's just how it is. So I said, let's just, you know, separate. And that's it. And then James, you know, James came up with the DCA idea and he got a CTO, Larson, yeah. And a banter. So, you know, hey, there's a show. So I mean, all the best, but we're out. And let's see, Alex, I keep hearing prices could go down, but with so much sell-off with the various exchanges going down and the number of wallets holding back over a year, who has left the sell-on profit? I gotta tell you, the same thing was said in June. Remember that? People said the same thing in June like, well, who's left to sell? There's always somebody left to sell, always. I hate to tell you that. And I know like when you say like, well, there's, you know, 69%, well, let's take a look. I can tell you exactly what that date is at. So if we go to block, into the block, sign in. I'll show you in my screen a second. Whoops, it's not right. That's why I don't show you on my screen so I always screw this up. Okay, there we go. So if you look at, it's a great website into the block. I don't have a affiliate link, but it's a lot of great data, a lot of good on-chain data, which I will remind everybody, can be manipulated pretty heavily. But if we take a look at holder's composition by time, which means that these haven't moved, right? Let's see. Classification adders according to their weighted average holding period of the token. So 72% have held Bitcoin for a year or more. And that could be a year or two years, three years, 10 years, 20 years, right? Well, not 20, it's dumb. So I mean, around it's like 12 or 2009. So same thing, 22% is one in 12 months and less than a month is 6%. But I will remind you, 28% of people who own Bitcoin can cause a hell of a lot of damage if they wanted to just capitulate and start selling like crazy. And don't forget the people who are one year plus, they'll still sell. And when I hear about all this stuff about, oh, well, you know, the diamond hands will never, they'll never harm us. They'll, those are the guys, you know? That's, that of course, prop of everything. Those guys are a bunch of liars. So there's this great website. I'm just kidding. Look at Bitcoin, look at whale shadows. Whale shadows will show you right here where it says, you have, of who are Bitcoin wallets that have held for four to five years, five to seven years, seven to nine to 10 years. If you take out this noise, actually know what, I'd be curious to see what that is. People who hold four to five years, guess when they sell? They sell when it starts to, you know, blow off tops. The same people that were telling you never to sell your Bitcoin were the ones that were dumping on you. Okay, now let's take a look at five to seven years. Oh, there we go. Well, when are they selling? When the price starts going up, they can dump on your heads. How about seven to nine? Same thing. Maybe they just held it. Well, cause we have to shift to the right cause it's so long. But, but you know, 10, 10 plus your people, they'll never dump on us, whatever. They'll dump on you too. So if you think about it, just remember that people can still sell. They will still sell and don't trust anybody. Not even me. Okay, thank you. Please refrain from profanity. You can cuss a little bit. It's just, and I don't, I don't ban anybody unless you're being a real, real solid jerk, but it would take a lot. I can't read that, but it's pretty funny. I'll take a screenshot of that. Okay, say that one, a little nugget for later. Norm, yeah, Norman's got a good question. People often talk about miners as if they're a homogenous group, but they're not are they? They're not some mythical creatures that are out there in the wild. They're just people that have a job or they have a business and they have overhead. They have prices, they have electricity, they have employees, they have taxes and they got to sell. So once the price starts going down, they're like, well, I've got to pay my employees. I got to pay for this mining operation. I got to pay for the electricity that keeps going up like crazy. What do I do? Well, I have one asset and that's called Bitcoin. Well, I guess I'm gonna sell it. Not everybody. I mean, some of the bigger operations, foundry and those guys, they have brokered immense long-term electrical deals with the power grid sources or for the communities that they serve. They're the ones that are gonna make it. They're gonna do pretty well. It's almost like, if you're old enough to remember this, Southwest Airlines, they brokered a great deal for gas. I forgot which companies they did it through, but they said, we're gonna pay you this same price in advance, like years, like five, 10 years in advance for all the gas that we think we're gonna need through our growth cycle. And they did it for so long that they were crushing all the other airline industries because the deltas and the United Airlines, those places, they couldn't keep up because there was rising cost of gasoline or fuel. But now with Southwest, they had brokered a deal and go, we'll get it for the same price, we'll pay in advance. And me as a business owner, I'd like that too. I'm like, wow, you're gonna pay in advance? Sure. So for these Bitcoin money operations today, they're the ones that are gonna win. And that's how it is. That's how it is. I'll be wrong. What do I know? Give me a number. Bitcoin prediction 2025, somewhere between $10 and 250,000, pretty sure. Clock that in. I'm a hundred percent sure of that. Plus or minus 200% error. Yeah. I was just having drinks and beer. Yeah, I messed up my knee yesterday playing. So I was drinking a little bit too much and I posted a bunch on Twitter. Ah, Puerto Rico meet up in May. Free golf lessons, free beer, I like that. I don't drink as much beer as I used to. It's like the antidote for working out. If you wanna gain weight and lose your muscles, muscle mass, just start drinking. It's very easy. Edward Fox. Lots of mods in this channel. I've been in a wrench now. Edward, would you like a wrench? I, we've got a lot of mods here. All the OG sweat coiners. Is Bitcoin good? Yeah, I think it's pretty good. Noah says, what times have you been looking to do spaces? So guys, so this what it'll be. So like, just like we're here in the news, news takes about 15 to 20 minutes. As soon as we get down with the news, I'll just answer a couple of questions here on YouTube. And I'll say, okay, everybody, and I'll put a link in the live chat and I'll put it in the description of the video and said, this is where the Twitter spaces is. Shoot over there, click the link. It's very easy. And then you can hear me talk like you do right now. But if you have a question, I'll just have you raise your hand. You just click a button where it's like, it'll say like, add emoji. And there's like five different emojis. Just click on that and then the hand raise. And then I'll call on you or I'll just unmute your mic. And you can ask me any question. We can talk back and forth. That's it. So it'll be the same time as like all my live streams, whatever timeframe it is for you. Like I usually do this at like 115 Atlantic time because we're in Puerto Rico. So that's 12, 15 Eastern, 11, 15 Central, 10, 15 Mountain, 9, 15 Pacific. Of course today's a little bit off because I had a bunch of stuff to do, a bunch of stuff, which was just a bunch of cleaning. Yeah, when you're, when people don't show up for your short-term rentals, who's gonna clean those places? Me, because. Raham, please stay on until you get 1,000 plus thumbs up. I don't think it's gonna, it's very tough for me to even get that. It's tough for me to get a ton of different likes, but I mean, I get enough, it's good. The people list to me, I'm happy that everybody's here. I know when enough is enough, I'm good. Are you streaming on Christmas Day? Probably not, probably not. But I will do a lot of tweeting. Doing spaces, yeah, but Twitter spaces, like I've gone to Twitter spaces, especially like, guy's name, Narwhal, and he's got a lot of great guests, but it just seems like everybody's talking over everybody because they want to get their points in, which is fine, but it leads to like four and five hour conversations. I'm like, who the hell has got time for that? I don't have time for that. So me, Twitter space is gonna be kept at 20 minutes and that's it, then we get out. Yeah, exactly. 25 hours stream, I'll get 1,000 likes. Yeah, so Thoughts in a Fidelity became a major centralized exchange next year. Fidelity's got a lot of plans and they look like they're moving ahead full, full steam ahead, but the question is, is that they've already offered crypto products to some of their higher tier customers. Doesn't really move the needle too much. I mean, it sounds good in theory, but honestly, I don't think it's a big, enormous thing that's gonna move the needle big time. What will move the needle is this, there's four things. One is that China relinquishes their zero COVID policy and they actually get moving, which will free up the international trade and commerce. Two will be when the Fed pivots and it won't be the day the Fed pivots, it'll be six months after that because that's usually when things crash and they come about. Three, it'll have to be legislation comes about and it's actually positive and it deals more with centralized exchanges more than anything else. And then four, we get some kind of real world utility app, something or other that really works out. If you get those four things, I'd turn to be super bullish Rob, not I'm short term bearish Rob, then that's it. So, no, all right, DCF says, I already sent it for their Fidelity Crypto account. I received my old equity account just to do with it. Keep us updated by Tom. Once the bear market over, you get a long time to wait, I think. All right, see ya. Thanks for stopping by. I think that's it, this is a tough. So Norman, this will be the last one to get out of you. I have a question when we reached the previous all time again, how do we know what's going to 1.3X for that price was going to 1.6X that price? You're not, you're just not, you're not. And like, for as much as everybody says, like, well, this is the top or this is the bottom, it's very hard to get it right. You can get it right maybe once or twice, I guess, but it's very tough to call everything. Me personally, I don't really care about hitting the tops or hitting the bottoms. If I hit around 60 to 80% of those, I'll be pretty happy. Alls I really care about is I wanna be able to buy inexpensive crypto and inexpensive real estate as well. And I like to sell overpriced expensive crypto. I know people will say, well, Rob, Bitcoin's never overpriced, maybe, but the markets say different. And that's just how it goes. And Ben says, pie cycle top, could be. All right, everybody, so that's it for today. So almost been an hour, but thanks so much for stopping by, I appreciate it. Like and subscribe, all the good stuff. And I will see you guys on the next one. Don't forget to vote on that Twitter Spaces. Tell me what you like, what you don't like, and if we're gonna do it. Adios, bye guys.