 What's up navigation traders welcome to this week's video update Exclusively for pro members today's Friday December 13th Let's jump into the community get started talk about who got caught being hot this week goes to our friend Wes. Why? Wes shared a little scan that he set up in toss to do some Efficiency in his duck hunting and so if you haven't seen that go to the community I posted it here in this thread as well. So thank you Wes good stuff In any kind of little trade hack. I mean we are trade hackers After all any kind of little trade hack like that is always helpful. So thank you congrats Wes. You got caught being hot Let's go to the To the alerts for the week starting with Monday the 9th Let's get down here had quite a few alerts this week actually In comparison so first trade was a rolling adjusting trade in natty gas So we got down to under 21 days. We're at 17 days to expiration on our short strangle So we wanted to roll that out. We kept the strikes exactly the same We still have that inverted short strangle and so we just rolled that out to the next cycle So here it is Price is hanging out right here now if price were to continue lower We were going to add to this but price has moved up this week And so we're just holding for now. We may still add to this But for now we just have the one set of short strangles in natty gas Next trade closing adjusting trade in foreslash ZW which is wheat So we closed one set of our iron condors booked over 50% of max profit on that piece of the trade and We've got a another piece still on here. Let me check that out You can see prices hanging out right here in the middle. So nothing to do there except for weight Next trade was an opening trade in SPX. So we put on a new iron duck with 21 days to expiration And so let's take a look at that We had another one on we actually there's the closing bill We had another one on Or we have another one on excuse me that we put on today But the one that we put on earlier this week is this one here You can see price has run up the duck beak with this market continuing higher If we put this on the expiration date, which is 1231 If we move our price slice here to the edge of our beak You can see we still have a about a 30% chance that price could come back into that max profit area So not looking to take that off yet. However, if price does continue higher into early next week We might see a chance where we take this off early But but for now we are holding and then the other one we put on today. I'll kind of skip ahead to this alert We put this on with just seven days to expiration. So it actually has less Than the the other one that we had so price is hanging out right here Price came down a little bit since we put this on so still in good shape there But that expires next Friday So we've got one that expires next Friday and then we've got the one that expires in what is now as of today 17 days to expiration So that's where we're at on spx Next trade opening trade in rut. So we put on a double calendar in rut We did this with with nine days in the front week, which is a little bit more We like to be kind of in that six seven eight day range, but I just like the risk reward here So we went ahead and put that on Price is kind of bounced around in there, but we are still in good shape still well within range here Price is coming down in the Russell today And and so you can see we're down based on just the implied volatility movement But still within range here So hopefully we can ping pong around and book a profit in that one next week Next trade rolling adjusting trade in XLK's we have our long put vertical that we've been holding for that short delta Exposure we're about three to one on our ratio of short delta versus our theta when we beta weight that to SPY so In decent shape there. We definitely need a down move in this market. I mean, it's just been such an extended rally We need a little bit of two-sided action But roll this out adjusted our strikes accordingly prices moved up since we did that so it's just outside of our range here that The market's closed so that P&L graph is a little bit off so don't pay attention to that but That's where we're at in XLK Next trade rolling adjusting trade in XLK. Oops, what did I do here? Looks like I oh Oh, yeah, I had a correction here. That's right So what I did just to kind of further explain it what I did is I accidentally rolled this to the weeklies I just didn't change it on the on the platform and so I sent out this correction alert so We in we meant to roll it to the 37 days to expiration in the monthly cycle But we accidentally rolled it to the weekly with just 23 days and so we just went ahead and hold it held it Well, we'll we'll roll it again here as we get closer to expiration, but there was no reason to Roll it out again immediately So anyway, that's that's kind of what I did there So I just wanted to make sure everyone was aware that's in that trade Next trade we did a closing trade in booking and booked big profits in booking Price ran higher a little little chance to get back. So we're not gonna hold it all the way till next Friday We just went ahead and booked that big profit and freed up that capital Next trade opening trade in Amazon. So we put on a new duck in Amazon at that point We had nine days to expiration and so if we take a look at that We took off a one of our iron ducks in Amazon today And actually it's come down now towards the end of the clothes could get at it better prices Had we held a little bit longer, but we could get out at even better prices had we exited first thing in the morning So Just part of the game though. Don't I was having a conversation with somebody in the community this morning about, you know What's the what do we when we get to that expiration day? What's what should we be doing as far as exiting and What I said and I and and I want to reiterate here is that you know 90% of what we do is mechanical, right the setup the exits the management the the roles and all that stuff It's it's it's very very mechanical 90% of it's mechanical, but there's still about a 10% of trading that that's got to be subjective and What I mentioned here is for example on that on that Amazon iron duck, let me just actually let me just grab it and Put it up here so you can see what I mean, so What we had was this one on here. Here's the one we took off today Well, you know when we first got up price was right here We have a max profit of 606 on this trade and we were up about 450 bucks and then price ran higher It was out here in the beak and so That and I exited at about two o'clock today with about an hour or so to go In the day in the end till the market closed And so we went ahead and close that out booked over beak profit, you know, it's a profit that that's cool What, you know, obviously we in hindsight you could have made more now? What happened is after we closed it price moved back lower so we could have booked, you know $407 on the trade and so You don't don't beat yourself up. There's no right or wrong answer You don't know what's going to happen. And so just just exit when you think the best time is Be okay with it and move on. I mean, that's all you can do I mean you're dealing with such a short duration, you know When you get down to the last day that you know any little, you know price movement can have an effect on your P&L Either good or bad I mean I've had it the other way too where you know price was way out here on the beak and I held it all the way up until the bell and right literally right before the bell within the last five to ten minutes of trading Price is shot down and I booked full max profit, you know So it works both ways Just don't beat yourself up if you if you get out and then you kick in yourself because you could have done better That's gonna happen. It's gonna happen quite a bit So just have a just kind of determine when you want to get out and just do it and that's all you can do So hopefully that's that's helpful The other iron duck that we have here in Amazon is this one here You can see prices out here on the beak with this expires next Friday. And so let's let's mark our slices here Let's move this to 1221 and Then let's just look at what kind of probabilities we have if we move our price slice to the edge of the beak here You can see we've got about a 16% probability that price could get back to the duck head So price continues higher next week. We'll just book that take it off and free up that capital for other high probability trades Next trade opening trade in Lulu So we did an earnings iron duck in Lulu and this is kind of a same situation As what I just talked about with Amazon. I mean this one we had I thought we were gonna book a full beak profit But price ended up running higher in Lulu And we got out for about 30 you 35% or almost 40% of max profit in Lulu So could have done a little bit better there on our exit, but again, don't don't kick yourself too much That's just part of the game will win some and we'll lose some will do better on some will do worse on some That's just how it goes Next one closing trade in CL so we had another iron duck in CL booked a beak profit on that price ran higher just took that off because we had a quite a bit of time and Not much chance of getting back to the duck head Next trade closing a trade in Adobe So we closed our pre earnings long strangle in Adobe never really got the price movement or IV expansion that we needed in Adobe, let's take a look at the charts ADB E and let's go to our three month daily chart and So what you'll see here is, you know implied volatility from the time that we put it on we didn't get a pop but then it just kind of You know moved sideways and then price just kind of moved sideways And so we exited before the earnings announcement and I took a little loss on that one I did get somebody also posting in the community. Hey, you know, look at what Adobe did Shouldn't we have held this until after the earnings we could have we could have made money Well, that's hindsight trading. Don't do that. That's I mean We're never gonna buy a straddle for earnings. We're just not it's a losing game Through and through and you may have been able to book a tiny profit had you got up got out, right? When is it the top point of the day? But you can't trade like that. So We are out of that one Same thing in Costco. We had a pre earnings long straddle Took that off for a tiny loss. So Book that or close that one out before earnings as well Next trade closing trade in spx. We closed out one of our iron ducks and spx already mentioned that We booked a little bit over beak profit on that one if we go back to spx and Take a look. So we've still got that that one left that we're going to so that's the one we added today And then we closed that other one out already already mentioned that Next trade opening adjusting trade in ZB So we added a short strangle in ZB and then we are we're still holding our other Adjusted strangle, which is at the 161 straddle. So if we take a look at ZB, we've got these two different pieces here Here's the straddle got a nice move up today in our favor And so that's helping out that piece and then our other one that we just put on Got a nice contraction in implied volatility. So already up a couple hundred bucks in that one Next trade rolling adjusting trade in Apple Apple just continues to be strong We've been holding this for for short Delta exposure. So we rolled this that one Rolled this out to January with 35 days and then adjusted our strikes accordingly. So if we look at Apple here Here's what that looks like now You can see prices moved up a little bit since we put this on but still well within range So just looking for some downside to benefit that Next trade opening trade in SPX. So that's the other one. I mentioned we did that with seven days expiration Closing trade in Roku. So here's another one that I was hoping we might get a chance at a Duckhead, but we ended up booking just a bit over beak profit. This was a this was actually a reverse iron duck and So we closed that one out Today as well and then I already mentioned the closing trade in the Lulu earnings and the Amazon Iron duck as well. So those are all the alerts. Let's take a look at some of our other positions starting with 6b So I was trying to close this out just for a small profit today. We're down to 21 days to expiration I mentioned on a video earlier this week yesterday, I believe that, you know, we're at 21 days So typically we like to roll our clothes once we get down to that point But we're you know, we're just I never got filled and So I'm just gonna hold this over the weekend if we can get a little bit of a down move will book book profits If not, we're just gonna close it out regardless Reason being is after the Brexit vote implied volatility just got crushed like we thought it would and so Let me see what happened today So implied volatility got crushed And so I don't I don't really want to roll this and manage this and just and try to fight this position With implied volatility as low as it is now So we're just gonna close that out early next week and either take the take the winning or the loot take the win or the loss in 6b Next trade whoops Next position. Yes, so we've got on this long put vertical here. Just holding that for short delta We'll be rolling this next week. We're down to seven days to expiration in our December trades We still have four different positions QQQ DIA IWM and and ES here, so we'll be rolling those We'll spread those rolls out next week. So oh and SPY as well. We'll roll those next week 4 slash GC. We've got an iron condor in gold. See prices hanging out right here We've got some profit not quite enough to take off yet. So we will you know if we get some more contraction in gold We'll potentially be able to take that off next week Nat gas I mentioned ZB. I mentioned wheat. I mentioned that Apple Amazon DE John Deere. We've got our long put vertical in Excuse me short call vertical in John Deere price hanging out right here near the break even so looking for some downside to benefit that I almost rolled this closer to price earlier this week prices way out here almost a 50% of max profit I was giving it a little bit more time and now price ran up So we're just we're still in good shape. Just looking for some more downside to get back in DIA we've got these two sets of short call verticals because he prices out of our range So just looking for some downside and like I said, we will be rolling these next week Same thing with IWM Same thing with QQQ. So like I said our short Delta Position we're about three to one on our short Delta versus our Theta. So Pretty short. I mean we could definitely use a down move Here's our rut double. I already talked about that shop Shopify Shopify continues its climb it moved into the duckhead area. We're up a couple hundred bucks We've got a max profit of 1,100 bucks on this one. So this would be a real nice duckhead to take home next week These expire next Friday. So we'll see what happens You know the one thing to keep in mind is we've got way out here You know past our break even before we get to our kind of exit point So we've got a lot of room to let this one roam Hopefully it just kind of stays in this in this range and we book a nice Duckhead profit, but that's where we're at in Shopify SMH had a strong move earlier this week moved out of our range But if we look at the untested side just the puts you can see we still got a lot of premium in those and So we're not looking to make another adjustment yet And we're not going to add to this one applied volatility is low it if we if we pop back up You know even if it's not quite to that 50 level, but if we pop back up earlier this week Early next week we will look to potentially add to that one SPX I talked about SPY. I mentioned same story. We're gonna roll that early next week and then already mentioned XLK So that's all the positions. We do have some dry powder We do have some cash sitting there ready to be deployed. So we'll be looking at some different options next week Some of the things that I'm looking at is Roku Let's go to a chart here or okay you Premium continues to be decent in there for especially for a hundred and thirty dollar stock. I mean the The options are pretty elevated. I mean we're able to easily do ducks and reverse iron ducks in there even though it's a lower price stock so The the monthly volatility in there is is really nice. So Roku Potentially add another one in Shopify We've got that that reverse iron duck and Shopify. So we may look to do another one there Google is another one. We'll be looking at Booking comm and CMG. So those are all kind of your your The list that we're looking at for iron ducks next week Last thing I want to cover is the expected move for next week. So let's go to my weekly expected move By the way, I'll be sending this out to members Just haven't yet working out a couple little Quirks in it before before I give it to you all but it's it's almost ready. So This is the weekly this is the expected range for next week. Look how look how narrow it's getting I mean look because of this, you know contraction and implied volatility the the Price of option just really getting compressed which affects our kind of our expected range here. So you can see You know, it's just up to about thirty two hundred and down to about thirty one thirty two thirty one thirty four in that range So as you can see compared to last week, which is this here This week is is gotten really tight and that's just due to the low volatility that we're seeing You know, I mentioned last week We just we had this really narrow range and then I'll send boom it popped up and what do you know right up to the expected move? And so we'll see what happens next week, but That is where we at. That's where we're at. The other thing we're really watching is bonds Bonds are really moving. I mean these are these are big moves for bonds and And so we'll see what happens the the expected range for bonds actually is more narrow Next week as well, but that has to do with the implied volatility contraction if we look at TLT You can see we had a big contraction the last couple days A lot of that has to do with the Fed announcement coming out and saying they're not gonna do anything for 2020 has a lot to Do with the ECB in the whole UK Brexit thing being over and done with so seeing some major Contraction in implied volatility across the board. I mean look at if anyone had a trade in Netflix I mean this thing just got crushed today. I mean the the Price didn't move and implied volatility just got annihilated. So a lot of fear coming out of the market. So beware and And so that's all I got for you. Everybody have a great weekend. We'll talk to you next week