 Welcome to Tick Mill weekly market outlook for week menacing the 25th of May with me Patrick Munlow. The rally in risk assets is proving a little slow of going now, especially as the turn in COVID-19 curves and lockdown exit strategies have been factored in. Instead now, investors are left to guess how hard President Trump is prepared to press China in a fragile election year, with a current focus on potential US sanctions in response to new national security laws in Hong Kong. This story may dominate the early parts of this week, especially in the final few days of the China's National People's Congress. After Monday's Memorial Day public holiday in the US, the US calendar gets into gear with the Fed beige book, the first revision to first quarter 2020 GDP and consumer sentiment for May. Markets expect the GDP release to be revised a little lower down from that first minus 4.8% quarter over quarter annualized print and the market to remain to look for fresh US stimulus, which may be several weeks away. From a technical perspective, the dollar index found support in the middle of the range, and we've now got a close on Friday above the monthly pivot. Whilst we defend Friday's lows, we can look for a retest of the range resistance 100.30 to 100.50 and we'll see if we get further bearish reversal patterns to set fresh dollar shorts. However, if we do get a close through the range resistance then I'm looking for a test of the equality objective at 101.30 before lower. Whilst we're talking about the dollar, let's check in with gold. Gold duly tested, it's a quality objective at the 1766 area and we did find fresh supply in the market, a bearish reversal on Thursday saw some consolidation trade on Friday. Whilst we hold this 1766 area, we can expect a retest of the minimum of the 1700 area. If bids don't develop in advance of the 1688 area, then we could see a deeper correction back down to test support to 1650. The euro had been finding a little more support recently, buoyed by the Merkel-Macron EU recovery plan. This coming Wednesday, the European Commission will try to convert this plan into proposed action. While there will be pushback from the more frugal members of the EU, markets suspect that the plan will be greeted well. Other events this week include German Efo on Monday and ECB chief economist Philip Lane speaking at an IIF virtual conference on Tuesday. Our balanced market watchers expect the ECB will announce a top-up to its pet programme at the 4th of June ECB meeting. Our remarks from the chief economist in that direction could be seen as euro supported via the fiscal risk channel. From a technical perspective, euro traded up into the 110 resistance area and we did see profit taking and we're now moving back down to test the midpoint of the range. If we can defend the 10850 area, then the bullish target on the interim basis is still that 11050. However, if we lose 10850, look for a quick move back down to test 108. If sufficient demand isn't seen there, then we could anticipate a deeper pullback to actually test down to the year-state lows at 106.30 and the interim equality objective. It's very quiet week on the UK data front with the market already penciling in Bank of England interest rates to start turning negative by year-end. The near-term negative impact from the expectations of the looser monetary policy is already started to weigh on sterling. The next main hurdle for sterling should be the negative news flow on the UK-EU trade negotiations and the likely no extension of the UK-EU transition period. As limited risk premium is priced into the sterling spot market, speculative shorts not being material and the sterling implied volatility curve shows signs of complacency. The likely non-extension of the transition period and the associated negative news flow should be weighing on sterling. As such, we saw bearish reversal patterns from the 122.250 interim resistance. We now look for price to test down to the confluent area of the 120 zone. I'll be watching for bullish reversal patterns in and around this area to set long positions targeting a move back up into the middle of the range towards 124. In Japan in the week ahead, we'll see Japanese data updates on Tokyo's CPI, jobs, retail sales and industrial production. They should all be pretty soft. Tokyo department stores sales fell 76% year-over-year in April. We probably want to keep a focus on whether Japanese authorities are actually doing enough to support the economy. The dollar yen has been somewhat resilient and it's probably been caused by the US dollar funding issues where Japanese banks are still drawing down $9 billion a day in the 7-day US dollar swap auctions with the Fed. So, from a technical perspective, I'm looking for the dollar yen to make a test of this 108.30 area where I'll be looking for fresh supply and if we can get some bearish daily reversal patterns up here, then I'd be setting short positions targeting a move down to the long-awaited 104.50, which is the primary equality objective. However, if we don't see the anticipated supply at 108.50, look for a move up to retest range resistance at 109.30. In Australia, the news is really about Australia and China who've entered into a diplomatic spat lately with the Australian government pushed for an investigation on the origins of COVID-19 and possible responsibility of the Chinese government. In what many identified as retaliation, China levied tariffs on Australia, Bali, and is reportedly working on a list of other Australian exports to potentially target with duties. If iron ore and coal were hit by the protectionist measures, the negative implications for the Australian economy and the Australian dollar could be considerable. Markets had shown some complacency around rising tensions between China and some developed economies lately. Now, the risk of a new geopolitical turmoil and possibly a new trade war starts to be priced in and recent developments in Hong Kong may further unnerve investors. The Australian dollar still has some relatively strong fundamentals, one of which is being a good commodity backdrop thanks to its extra resilient iron ore prices, largely boosted from strong Chinese demand. However, Australia-China tensions mean that the Australian dollar may see bearish spirits re-emerging and pick up in volatility. We did see some bearish reversals in the Australian dollar, but as we hold the 6450 area, I'm still looking for a test of the 67 handle, which is the primary equality objective. Once we get up here, I will be looking for bearish reversal patterns to set short positions, ultimately set up a move to retest the 62 area as support. If we don't find the anticipated sport at the 6450 area, look for a move back down into the 6360 zone, watching for bullish reversal patterns there to set long positions for the 67 target. That concludes the weekly market outlook for week-e-ment seeing 25 May.