 Okay, and we have liftoff. Thank you very much for attending today. This is our weekly charting analysis webinar. My name is Jasmin Lawler talking about CMC markets. As you can see, we've got the risk warning on the screen here. Just cruising through that and then we will get stuck in some of the major markets that are popular to trade with CMC markets. And of course, any points if you had any other markets you wanted me to have a look at and any questions on or just anything in general, please send a message either to the group or just you can send it directly to myself. Hi, who you were? Obviously, the big event that called some fireworks last week and I hope some of you on the right side of that was the non-farm payrolls. That came in massively under expectations. And so the result was a collapse in the dollar, good rally in commodities, especially gold. And US stock markets dropped off pretty sharply initially after that jobs report, but then pretty much rebounded. And as of the moment, we pretty much retraced most of those losses. But I think what that probably boils down to is that obviously it was 38,000 jobs created and we were expecting 160,000. There was a rise in strike, a count of about 37,000. So, you know, but still you're looking around 70,000 jobs created. And that's obviously way beneath expectations, even the lowest expectations came nowhere close to that. The previous month also got revised lower. So basically, the three month average is a lot less than it was prior to Friday. And it's that long term stretch of data that the Fed tends to look at when deciding whether to raise rates. So, you know, on the face value, the Fed not raising rates is a good thing for stock markets. And so what we were looking for today and I think why the markets have retraced those initial sort of knee-jerk reaction losses, stocks that is, is we've got a speech from Yellen today. And what we're looking to see is whether she changes her tone a little bit about when the Fed is likely to raise rates. She previously said that a rate hike in the coming months is likely. And she's probably going to say something pretty similar here. But I think she may caution it a little bit. And I'm sure in the back of her mind, I think she's going to probably leave July open as a possible place for the Fed to raise rates. The giant meeting that is. I think June is pretty much off the table. But I think probably in the back of her mind, like a lot of the other Fed members, they're probably thinking, actually, September would be the other time to raise rates. And it's all pretty conditional on the data. And if this trend of weaker data continues, you know, September could easily not happen. So that's a sort of weaker dollar story. And it's just unwinding a bit more of this strong dollar we've had over the past few years. So that's the dollar we're talking about here. But let's just talk a bit about US stocks there. So let's kick off in some traditional fashion. I tried to do this. The US there, in the US. This has zoomed in a bit. It's still a daily chart, which tends to be my main focus. And what we were looking at was a potential head and shoulders pattern here. That still vaguely could come off. But we also had this declining trend line, which we referenced in last week's webinar, valued up to the previous high, came down, touched the trend line nicely. We've had three days of long-tailed candlestick patterns. And now we're moving back up possibly to re-challenge that peak. And so what you'd be looking at here is basically this was the correction, broken out of the correction, came to the high test, then moved up to the peaks. And that's my default assumption as to what's happening here. And that obviously negates the head and shoulders pattern. We've pretty much already ruined this right-hand shoulder, but have moved up through this 17-9-30 area with pretty much a cancel world pattern. In general, though, still kind of sideways chopping markets. And I think if we do move towards the top of this range in the 18-150 type area, then the highest probability trades, when you're not in a trend, is to sell the top of the range and find the bottom of the range. Obviously, we can break out, but we're very close to record highs, as I've sort of symbolized by this shaded area up here. This is our record high from last year. So that's some big old resistance for us to have to get through for that rally to have much legs beyond the peak that we reached in April. So you've got to imagine that there's a strong likelihood, even if we take out that high, we're going to roll over somewhere within that shaded zone. Now there's similar looking, the US markets are certainly by far outperforming, but there's similar looking setups in the other markets too. So let's just go to the UK, which by the by is doing the best out of all the European indices today, largely off the back of the fact that the mining companies do, you see them listed up here, put them at the top of my list here, just because they do tend to drive the FTSE one way or the other. Today it's to the upside. And just the logic there being that the dollar goes down, commodities are denominated in dollars, commodities go up, and miners who mine those commodities go up. So that's the kind of simplistic logic there as to why miners go up. That's a questionable long-term scenario because obviously if the US economy does peter out, that doesn't bode well for the global economy and doesn't bode well for global demand for commodities. So here this is, if I just push this out a bit. This is the UK 100, similar long-term situation here where we've broken out of this downtrend. We've come back to the previous peaks, we've come back, retested the the broken trend line and we're pushing higher. Now the the bullish development that we had the before last was that we pushed out of this kind of tight range we're in, we pushed out and we rolled back over, we've retested the 200-day moving average as well as vaguely the top of that tight range that we're in and we're pushing higher again. So a bit like that US 30, we've had the little dip, we're coming back to the peaks again. This would be equivalent to the 18150 in the US 30. Here it's about more like the 600 to 6430 in the UK 100. So that kind of correlation between global indices is pretty well intact at the moment. And so again, even though we're in a sort of range-bound environment generally or it does make trading trickier when you're in a range, because obviously we can just kind of chop around inside that range and it's certainly more difficult to call when we're in a more defined trend. But it looks like we've had a correction, tried to break through that 6000 and 50 kind of support that we've banged against multiple times, failed to do so, come up, found support at 200-day moving average. And to me the logic would be again to push up to that peak from April. We jump over to Germany, similar I can think. Again the 200-day moving average in a fairly tight range that we broke out to the top side came around. As we currently stand, we're testing the 200-day moving average and this kind of long-standing pivot that seems to have acted a number of times now. And they're not every time, it breaks obviously, but has been an important sort of buying and selling location for the most part of this year. So that's the sort of 10-100 kind of area in Germany-Berti and the moment support and advice. So again I think my default assumption here is we've got this kind of rising wedge pattern. That actually is more bearish, but still the fact that we've broken out and retested their former resistance now turned support to me suggests we're pushing up to the highs next. If we break through these supports it's pretty clear that assumption, that scenario that I'm painting here of the bounce is obviously not happening and then we've got a question why. We've got to revisit why we'd be retesting this bottom trend line having not pushed up to the highs again. That would be risking a scenario of a lower low beam. You've got to have your base case scenario and if the risk reward makes sense you've got to go for it. So obviously we're talking about Yellen specifically talking today. That's at 5.30 British summer time by the way this evening. So obviously after our markets close so if there is any fireworks to be had we'll be seeing it at tomorrow's open. I suspect there won't be. But it's one of those things where we know the event's happening is unlikely to be anything special particularly said, but based on what she does say that's how people are going to position themselves when they get their price levels that they're looking for one way or the other in the coming week or so. And obviously bearing in mind next week we've got the Fed meeting. So you know talking about the Yellen otherwise a few data points but not much this week nothing compared to last week we'll be at DCD and OPEC and a lot of other non-farm payrolls. Tuesday we've got the RBA, Wednesday we've got UK manufacturing, China trade data on Wednesday too, China's CPI, PPI later in the week but that's about it. Not even much in the way of earnings, kind of earnings season. We're out and down now pretty much. I've got the same Bruce sales data which could push around the supermarkets later this week. So we jump straight to the euro against the US dollar. Again, tricky environment. Long term we're in this range and we came down from the top of the range. I've just got this drawn in because I think the camp highlights it both. We've just got the false break out there and back into the range. We've got the false break on the downside. I just want to see what I said last time. Okay well actually I kind of caught it about right there when it was when it was pushing into that one 140 sort of saying well actually yeah we're into the oversold area on the RSI. We're approaching it at least, chance of a near term bottom and that's kind of what happened in the end. We've had a false break to the top side and now we've got a false break to the bottom side and obviously just a massive move lower. After that kind of momentum higher you typically don't want to be on the other side of that. We could definitely pull back fairly substantially back even down to the back into where we broke out with a sort of one to 20 area. I don't suspect we'll get that far. I suspect we're probably going to keep pushing up. By the by though I mean we pushed right through the bottom of this highlighted box out but you know this is this is the kind of area of which the market would roll over again if this downtrend into lower into the range was continuing. Very you know we've had this strong move it's not to say that it has to continue though. You know you can certainly it's almost you know looking back at the previous strong moves that we had it's almost a pre-cursor not every time to a bit of a point back in these really big moves. Not in this case. Here two moves lower that big move there. I think the fact that we've held the 200 day moving average to me is probably the size of fact and all that says we're up to challenge the highs again. And I suppose again back to correlations if you believe that stocks are going to rebound up to the equal highs again you probably in sync with that and the euro is going to do the same. So with James Cable this is on the more interesting side and you don't have to talk so much about the Fed all the time. Obviously we're in our own situation in the UK with Brexit and situation quite a remarkable turnaround. I actually had last week off just in the space of that week a number of polls have come out in favour or including today in favour of the Brexit campaign to leave. So the people on the basis of what's happening is the people on the sidelines are clearly weighing up the debate all this time saying they don't know. They don't know they've decreased the numbers and they've all shifted to the to leave camp. You know certainly it's just politics really to speculate why that's happening. My suspicion just that all these big institutions have come out talking about the economic risks but just not enough said really about the democratic arguments and the other side of the coin for more like the political side right now because inside that's very immigration obviously. There's political issues coming more to the forefront which is more supportive of exiting than the economic argument that you know the loss of confidence means we are in an economy that's going to tell us what we need. So the net result is that you know the default scenario that we've been dealing with since the start of the year well since December obviously we had that first massive drop is that the higher the chances of an exit means a really you know downside risk to the pound and so we tried to break out a couple of times above 147 but we're basically in a range now and so we just tried to break out didn't quite happen it's not in any shape what I think most people probably agree it's more likely we're going to remain just as a safety vote I say this every week but it's not quite such a foregone conclusion as it seemed like a couple of weeks ago now and we're back into the range because we could put the we're basically challenging this old support here but this this broken trend line has worked quite well and my suspicion is that this works quite well with the historical load I think we could be heading back down to 142 and change you know but it's all fairly poll dependent and again we're in a range um poll says one thing we're back here you know poll is favorable to brexit we're down another poll comes out saying you know the remain camper ahead you know we're higher so it's tough but my suspicion is that we're probably drifting down to the bottom of the range basically range bound and again just that same old better to sell in the top half of the range buying the bottom half of the range this point we kind of mid range so it's a trickier trade we basically paying on the continuation of the move down to the bottom of the range it's just going to be choppy on the way there so you kind of have to have the deeper pockets larger stock losses to go for that kind of trade again also been an interesting one here so we highlighted this area of resistance in last week's uh that was the last week the week before webinar and uh we basically got a false break ran into that fairly solid support at 111 and just rolled over massively and we're we're back down to the lows now and so my sense here is though that we we've had a good strong bounce off that last low we almost made a new eye we didn't uh my suspicion is that we could probably go down to challenge in our highlighted level was 105 to 30 that we mentioned what you mentioned in a couple of videos now which was this this pivotal point here from the peak in 2013 and that low in 2014 you know I suspect that we dip down test that and then bounce back up into a range again so that's that's if you're buying at the low it's counter trade it's counter trend but I think especially if we've got another drop in on the side down to 23 70 24 even 30 just a just an oversold level um in combination with hitting that support it's counter trend but I think it's it's more it's high probability than the most counter cent trains I think we're we're heading into a range now after that steep sell off by the buy I still tend to think that we're headed to 100 but I just don't think it's happened quite yet I think 105 pretty much 100 so let's move on to crude the initial reaction was a sell-off in oil to the the non-farm pay-offs result on Friday but again um it it's kind of bounced back since because again that same argument supported commodities and suggests that you know we could dollar it good good for oil in general so we're basically trying you can see here just by the we've got above a 50 a couple of times in our charts here but we just haven't closed above 50 on the cash rate we've had it bounced up it perfectly we've had a little spike above close below spike above close below and we're probably you know it was a good chance we can try it again today to push above 50 but the difference maker will be when we get that close above the risk here is that we've got some bearish divergence look at this rsi slicking down while the prices making higher highs it's it's higher highs but it's struggling to even make a close below above 50 and and this rsi is it's gradually drifting down um I you know tricky to trade off the um such a strong bullish trend and divergence by itself but in and around 50 you know it's it's um you know it's a big round number a lot of people paying attention to it there's a good chance it ends up being the top somewhere in that area if you're looking for a bit of extra confirmation before you know rather than just calling the top outright at 50 you know if you're looking for a bit of a breakdown first to kind of confirm the idea then I think this rising trend line here in the price would be the kind of clue you want equally this this rising trend line in the in the rsi which you can either use this previous low or you know maybe maybe ideal maybe a bit safer slightly lower as these two peaks the rsi here break down through both of those you know I think that opens us up firstly back down to this quite nice pivot area of 46 we could actually get a bounce from there uh but perhaps even back down to to 40 43 50 um which would again sort of put us we've been in a nice trend for a while we're pretty overdue just drifting back into a sort of rate more stable range I think there are a lot of calls out there for the ball price to settle into a new range between 40 and 50 so there those projections may become reality in the future and if gold as I mentioned was one of the the more interesting moves um obviously I think dollar related was pretty good on Friday but um here in um gold would basically based off this last run lower we've pulled back 50 percent so 50 percent and this big reaction low here on the 19th of May is basically where where we've stored out on this massive move higher on Friday so there is this rising channel which we push back into now but there's still risks um there's a rising channel which still to me the fact that they're broken it poses some various risks and if you ignore this channel completely if you kind of you know sometimes you paralysis by now since you do too much just cut it out and again simplistically we're in a trading range aren't we and so you know basically this has been by near the bottom of the range trade basically um yeah this is the safest definition of the bottom of the range down uh one one ninety and uh we've we've rebounded just above that basically basically the one two hundred you know if you just had a simple buy order down at the round number you'd done undone pretty nicely uh off this trade so far with you know the 50 percent retracement but uh also not far off just the midpoint of the range which if you are buying the bottom of the range the more conservative first target is the midpoint of the range the more aggressive target obviously is the the other end of the range uh got a question here do i think oil will reach 80 by the end of the year um i don't well i mean you know it's in a strong trend right now and i don't think it's an unreasonable question but i tend to think we're we're going to roll over and um and stick in a lower range is my default assumption here um the supportive factor for for all push going that high i think would be if the Fed completely held off and the dollar weakened but i think the sort of unsupportive idea for that is that the global growth risk if the Fed decides not to hire to tighten that's bode well for the well bode badly for the global economy and also just more specifically on the supply and demand for oil um you know maybe i should put up WTI for this but uh just in terms of US crude i think what's what's going to happen is that as we approach 50 we've already started to see it by the way in terms of the rig count we saw this but the first rise in the rig count in i think it was 11 weeks last week so basically as oil price gets higher uh US Shell producers come back in and start producing more oil and that result is that we get more a bigger supply of oil we had the OPEC meeting last week they're not going to stop pumping at record levels record levels from OPEC US Shell comes back online at higher prices means eventually that supply blood is still there and if you base on the US jobs numbers slightly weaker data from China the demand is not really there either so i would say there's probably more risks to the downside than the risk to the upside there i hope that makes sense so i think uh i'm about done here i didn't see any other questions um oh yeah uh okay here we go dollar CAD yes have a look at that obviously very much related to the um to the oil trade and at the moment slightly more dominated by the moving the dollar by the buy this is actually quite an interesting pattern here literally just spotted that looking but we've got basically our head and shoulders in the RSI here we've had a failed um you know lower low here failure to make a new peak in this little retracement we're heading down to the lows here so perhaps some some short-term weakness involved um we've had a break of a only a two point trend line looks like we're up we're up into trying to test that trend line at the moment um but a big bearish engulfing candle failure to make a new high um you know kind of coming off the top of the range and obviously slightly more dovish yelling today perhaps and uh and a weak dodge report is is out of the dollar um supportive of the CAD would be higher all prices and at the moment that you know the trend is still higher in oil um we haven't i'm talking about the downside risks to 50 but we've not actually had that top in place yet um you know i was talking about that those those kind of trend lines that we could use as confirmation that the trend is starting to turn lower so maybe at that point this trade would be slightly less intuitive because the CAD strength wouldn't be there if oil rolls over but nonetheless the you know the dollar's the main driver so we've got weak dollar driving forward in a bit of a fairly distinct pattern here um a bit of a bounce back towards the 130 mark and then we could see some renewed weakness in this dollar CAD i think short-term weakness in dollar CAD looks like yeah hope that helps okay done and done thank you very much for attending today uh very much appreciate your attendance um good luck with the trading and uh we'll talk again this time next week cheers jaspalola signing out