 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network Conference tournaments are heating up across men's college basketball with a bunch of games on the docket for today We're gonna break those down from a betting perspective by talking to Aiden Connor of Fandall research getting his read on his inner bets across Fandall sportsbook for today. This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and Fandall research My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a managing editor of digital media for Fandall research Joined here as mentioned by Aiden Cotter check him out on Twitter at Aiden Cotter FD and find his work over at Fandall research Where he is a writer for us Aiden is a delight to have you on the show for today. How you doing? Hey Jim I'm doing good. It's a pleasure to be on I always think of the first day with all the major conference tournaments in action That's kind of the beginning of March madness So it's uh, it's an exciting time and I'm excited to talk some games Do you have a setup where you can put some games on? You know while you're plugging away on articles for today, like give a TV within like eyesight so you can kind of keep tabs on things Yeah, we used to do like the multiple TVs, but yeah, YouTube TV has like the yeah boxes now and it just makes things so much easier All right So you're gonna be tuned in throughout the day And I feel like that always makes the work day just kind of fly by a little bit faster when you can have stuff on throughout the day Oh, absolutely That's that's a big key for me with golf is that I can have it on during work and just kind of like you know Half pay attention to it and like tune in more so towards the end, but we are fully in the thick of things We have got day games going on today tomorrow Friday, and then of course next week Thursday Friday It is going to be a delightful stretch of weeks Aiden be back with us again next week, too Breaking down some NCAA tournament games getting his read on those We want to get him on the show here today, too Because it is a fun time to talk some men's college basketball We'll break it all down with Aiden here in just one second But first a reminder to make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast You can find us by searching for covering the spread wherever you get your podcast If you like what you hear leave us a five star rating on Apple podcast or Spotify You can also find this show on the fan dual YouTube page and fan dual TV plus. I broke down My initial reactions to NFL free agency and yesterday show tomorrow Ryan Williams will be with us to break down Some more NFL free agency news as that trickles across and then on Friday more men's college basketball with Riley Thomas He'll be joining us to break down his thoughts on Friday's games in the conference tournaments Fan duals putting the ball in your court for the rest of the NBA season because right now new customers get $200 in bonus bets with any winning $5 bet That's 200 bucks if your bet wins bet on the NBA with a wide range of bets Including quick bets live same game parlays player props and more so visit fan dual calm and make your first bet a layup Fan dual official sportsbook partner of the NBA must be 21 plus in president select states Fan dual is offering online sports wagering in Kansas under an agreement with Kansas star casino LLC first online real money wager Only $10 first deposit required bonus issued is non withdrawal bonus bets that expire seven days after receipt See terms at sportsbook dot fan dual calm gambling problem call 1 800 gambler Or if it's a fan dual calm slash RG in Colorado, Iowa, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Kentucky, Tennessee Virginia and Vermont call 1 800 next step or text next step to 5334 2 in Arizona 1 887 897 777 Over the ccpg.org Slash chat and Connecticut 1 800 9 with it in Indiana 1 800 5 2 2 4,700 or visit chaos gambling health.com in Kansas 1 877 770 stop in Louisiana visit MD gambling health at Oregon, Maryland 1 800 gambler net in West Virginia 1 800 5 2 2 4,700 in Wyoming. Hope is here as a gambling helpline MA org work 103 to 750 50 for 24 7 support in Massachusetts or call 1 877 8 hope and why or text open why in New York Now eight will break down some games with you here and just one second at first This is our first time talking to you here on the show So kind of wanted to get to know you a bit more and get to know your college basketball betting process What kind of steps do you take before you actually decide to place a wager on a game? Yeah, so college basketball is really interesting to sport to gamble on compared to some of the others especially the professional sports We're dealing with pretty small sample sizes Even once the tournament starts teams have really only played max 30 some games And so trying to draw significant conclusions from that data is difficult Especially because we're talking about college teams these the vast majority of players aren't gonna be playing professionally We're talking about 18 to 22 year olds and we're talking about coaches who have a lot more say than say NBA head coaches would And so you're gonna see players and rotations change a lot throughout the season And so we can't just look at the broader data. We have to kind of narrow down into season splits too For me, I like to start by just checking out some of the models that are available out there just to get a Insight to where lines are showing value, right? There are so many lines. There are so many models out there Yeah, and POM is obviously the big one that you have sites like Bartorovic our number fire model So there's plenty of data out there So I like to check that out and see like is there some sort of consensus Hey, this line's too short. This line's too high and go from there The other big thing this time of the year is I'm really looking at bracket projections and try to see What teams have stuff to play for still? Yeah So realistically, there's already like 35 to 40 teams that are pretty locked in And so that can impact how much teams are willing to push in these conference tournaments And then also how much they're willing to scale back or kind of mail it in at this point this season Then obviously we have like our player specific match-ups Looking at shooting splits looking at where teams are giving up a lot of points Just as you would for any other sport now I want to go back to you discussed blending models And I think that that's something we discuss a lot here on the show is like wisdom of the crowds because One model is good three models is better. So when you're looking across these models, are you looking for a consensus? Are you trying to find like a blend of like here? We go, you know If I blend 33% Bartorovic with 33% Ken Palm, etc. etc trying to find it that way What process do you go through in deciding how to weigh? You know the various models or do you just want a consensus effectively? Yeah, so I'm typically looking for a consensus, right? I want the main three. I'm looking at our Ken Palm Bartorovic and hazelnut metrics. I Want them all to be within a point or so. Yeah of this side. I'm trying to get on. Yeah at the same time I'm also these are three different models. They're waiting things a little bit differently So I'm okay to stray from one or the other if I'm feeling a lean towards a certain game And is that based on like eye test for you? Are you kind of using that as like, okay? My starting point is eye test I think that we'll throw this out there for you as a lapel I think dating to be fair by 15, you know, because you're a dating guy So let's say I think dates be fair by 15. Let me check the models It's kind of like a check on my eye test or how does that process work for you? Yeah So it's almost like an inverse, which yeah I want to see where the model lines up with the actual lines Okay, and then go back and actually look into the teams themselves and that's where I want to apply the eye test Okay, see where those numbers match up with how I am doing these teams. Okay. I like that I think that's a smart way to do things in general leaning on other smart people which the smart people built those models Leaning on that's pretty smart But then also factoring in because you're a sports fan You've watched these teams you've watched these games, you know what you're talking about So I think that factoring in the eye test on top of that is a good way to do things So excited to talk to you about these games after hearing all of that So let's dive in and take a look here at the various games tonight over at Fandall sportsbook opening round of the big 10 Tournament is tonight just two games on tap across the big 10 But any bets send out to you for the big 10 tonight, Aiden Yeah, the big 10 has like their bottom four teams squaring off tonight So I'm not in love with any of the lines with any of the spreads here But I am interested in the total for this Maryland Rutgers game. Okay So this will be the third time they've played this season and they split the season series Somehow the road team won both games and then both games finished with exactly a hundred and nine point total Tonight we have an over-under set at one twenty five and a half When you look at these teams, they're both top 15 nationally in defensive efficiency They were the second and third best scoring defenses in the big 10 Maryland plays at an absolute snails pace and Rutgers is not afraid to get up and down a little bit But they're one of the least efficient teams in the country Maryland is also Not much better on offense and they could be without their second leading scorer Julian Reese He missed their season finale haven't gotten an update Just based on some Twitter searches this morning didn't look like he was on the plane to the big 10 tournament But that's something I want to wait and see getting official word-out on him But even if he plays I think I would be willing to play this game down to like 122 Yeah, 125 and a half right now is the number for Maryland versus Rutgers at Fandle sports book under is minus 110 and like that's that's like peak college basketball or college sports in general is searching Twitter trying to find information it is My least sort of thing to do on a Saturday morning during college football season is like doing Twitter searches of these guys You get like all like the weird fan accounts and stuff like that too, but I understand the process for sure So Rutgers versus Maryland under 125 and a half at minus 110 Aiden is liking that one for the opening night of the big 10 more of a fun night in the big 12 Aiden has got some like Legitimately fun teams playing the big the big 12 for tonight. So what do you seem there for the big 12? Yeah, so if you're like just getting into college basketball this time of the year Big 12 is the cream of the crop right last year. They had seven teams in the big dance They've now added four teams two of whom have pretty much already locked in their spot in the field 12 of the 14 teams in the conference are top 100 on Ken Palm And so even in these games featuring higher and lower seated teams, you're gonna see some tighter spreads in some closer games Right off the bat and when I was going through these lines when they first came out yesterday TCU opened at two and a half against Oklahoma and that right away stuck out to me as something I wanted to get on and it has now dropped I believe to one and a half as of this morning back out to three and a half now, okay So I saw like you're on the same side as some other people out there who were influencing this line. I Still think I can play that TCU and Oklahoma are both Have pretty similar resumes TCU is a little closer to the bubble than Oklahoma is but they both probably should be in Oklahoma feels pretty comfortable that they're in they've already announced that one of their key players seems to revolve the source He's gonna sit he turned his ankle in the season finale He's been the relieving score for the last five games kind of been that X factor It's an upperclassmen transfer And then they're also gonna be out with gonna be out a big man who scored 14 points the first time that they played And in that first meeting to see one by nine was at home But the big thing that I like to look at is the turnover battle TCU won that turn about 14 to seven and that's kind of been their ammo all season, right? The Horned Frogs love to get up. They love to push the pace They love to force turnovers and get easy buckets and transition And that's been an area Oklahoma is kind of struggled in all year They have one of the highest turnover rates in the big 12 and not having one of their senior guards is not going to help that one bit and It helps TCU's best player manual Miller had his second high scoring total the season the first time these teams played Like I said, I wrote down I liked it at two and a half and then I would be happy to take it up to four and so even at three and a half I am willing to play that definitely more thin value now a minus three and a half the minus three and a half is minus 115 which probably implies the given the way it's moved so far. There's a good chance It does get to four and it sounds like to you once it gets to four That's the point where it becomes a stay away. Is that correct? Yeah, I think four is about where I draw the line Okay, so three and a half right now minus 115 on TCU still potentially some value out there But I'll be cautious because that line is very close to being efficient in Aidan's eyes any other big 12 bets you're eyeing for tonight Yeah, BYUCF and Texas, Kansas State. Those are games. I'm kind of trying to stay away from but the Kansas Cincinnati game is Really interesting to me So when you pull up this game at first glance, it's probably a little jarring you're gonna see Cincinnati as a favorite here And that's because Kansas has announced that they're sitting their top two players Hunter Dickinson and Kevin McColler Dickinson dislocated his shoulder in the season finale. McColler has kind of been banged up all year And so Bill Self just said okay. This is Kansas. We're not playing for a seed. We're already in the tournament Let's rest our best guys. Let's go into the actual tournament healthy and that probably is gonna help them next week this week I Think it really really has me leading Cincinnati So they already played once this year and McColler and Dickinson were both healthy and Kansas pulled out a five-point home win in A game where Cincinnati shot three of 18 from three and Cincinnati is not a good three-point shooting team. The three of 18 is hard hard hard to do I Was excited to back Cincinnati when the bracket first dropped as sort of like a plus eight plus seven and a half When Kansas had their guys healthy without those guys healthy I think they could cruise here and I kind of talked about it earlier having these motivations in these conference tournament games Without their two best players kind of already signaling that they're willing to turn it in and move on to next week I think this is kind of a game that could kind of get out of hand in the second half And so I am definitely willing to lay the two and a half here So you mentioned the Kansas sitting key players Do you think it's a spot where they even be willing to of the guys who are playing scale back minutes on them in order to keep them fresh? Are we talking like a pretty extreme? Get Kansas ready for the tournament spot type here. Yeah, it's interesting because Kansas has their MO all year It's been like they have this really nice five-man lineup Mm-hmm, and then there's just not much off the bench and okay I haven't gotten much from the reserves So I'm interested to see how self kind of extends his rotation. Yeah, there's just not a lot to extend Yeah, right and the guys outside of Dickinson and McCuller. They have a few guys that are worth mentioning but I It's gonna be hard for them to overcome losing too high usage players like those Okay, so that's where the eye test comes in where you know, the bench is pretty thin the bench is not gonna be Able to duplicate what Kansas typically does so Aiden is on Cincinnati minus two and a half That is minus 110 right now at Fanduil sports Let's shift focus now and talk about the ACC for games there as well out in Washington DC We're using value in the ACC for tonight Aiden. It's been of a bit of a down year for the ACC outside of the North Carolina teams I'm not really loving any of the lines here. I If I had to pick two I would be interested in the underdogs and their name and Boston College I think they're six and a half and eight and a half respectively. I Think I could talk myself into that by the time the games start up But where I'm really looking here are player props So starting in the Wake Forest Notre Dame game We can look at Marcus Burton who is Notre Dame's point guard over 18 and a half points So Burton he's a freshman super shifty guard. He's from my hometown of South Bend, Indiana Went to Notre Dame cool story But he has just been lighting it up over the last month since February 1st He's averaged 20 points per game. It's posted a 33 usage rate, which is like Zach Edie level usage He's taken over 16 shots a game He went for 31 against wake on February 27th got to the line 11 times And it helps that Notre Dame is a slow pace team But this is a pace-up spot up against wake forest who likes to get up and down and push the pace a little bit And so you're seeing like a mid 130s total Which is a bit higher than you normally would for Notre Dame And so I think this is a nice spot for Burton to stay hot and for him to hit that over on points So you mentioned Burton is a younger player Have you seen progression for from him throughout the year that has kind of led you to think like, okay Now that we're in crunch time, they're going to lean even more heavily I don't know if you can given the usage rate, but like Is he going to be the focal point now the games are really at the the most critical? Yeah, absolutely when he started off the year He was kind of hovering like that low 20% usage rate You could tell is like a freshman coming in they had a new head coach He wasn't really trying to take over the locker room But as the year went on that talent just kind of overshined everything And he's really just taken on this huge scoring load for them Okay, so Aiden is on Marcus Burton over 18 and a half points minus 118 That is for the Notre Dame versus wake forest game bit of a lean towards Notre Dame plus six and a half But not as firm as with the player prop on Marcus Burton any other ACC bets you're eyeing for today Yeah, so I got another player prop in the Syracuse NC State game So NC State Played yesterday they played against Louisville barely pulled it out They were without their leading scorer DJ horn and he wasn't even in shoes in basketball shoes and warm-ups Which leads me to believe he's not going to play today. And so I do want to wait and see What his official status is but if he doesn't go this is a great spot for DJ burns To go over 12 and a half points So if you're not familiar with burns, he I highly recommend turn tuning in tonight on ESPN 2 and checking him out He is I think Jay billis earlier this year described him as a 275 pound ballerina He's this monster of a man kind of got this Zach Randolph body But just these super agile feet and just great with the ball. He's an elite isolation scorer a Doesn't have a ton of stamina He doesn't play big minutes all the time and he can struggle with foul trouble But if you go through his game logs, you'll see in some of the bigger matchups He really likes to turn it up and when he's out on the court They run everything through him right kind of like what I was saying with Burton where he has this high usage rate In acc play burns out a 30% usage rate. You only average 11.6 points per game but In those bigger games they kind of relied on him more when they needed to get a bucket in isolation And run their offense through him when horn was struggling and so if horn is out I love dj burns over 12 and a half He went for 14 and 10 in two games against qs this year and I think he can stay hot again tonight In what could be his final collegiate game? I mean if we get an incentive to walk to 275 pound Cinderella as well while betting dj burns over 12 net points Minus 110 I think that that helps Move the needle a bit too that's again for the nc state versus syracuse game burns over 12 net points Keep an eye on on the tabs of the nc state nc state players to make sure We'll get some more usage funneled towards burns direction, but 12 and out of the number right now for burns in that game against syracuse Let's open up the board to you now aiden any other spots where you're seeing value for tonight at fandall sportsbook Nothing super big stuck out. Um, there is a pretty high spread out in the mountain west We have new mexico taken on air force and the mountain west has had a really strong season overall and new mexico is kind of The last team Out of the mountain west teams that are in contention for a tournament spot They really need to win a couple games in this conference tournament to get in And I think this is a spot against air force where they can come out and really just put it on So they beat air force by like 20 At air force earlier in the season and then towards the end of the year the thing that kind of got them Put them back on the bubble so they dropped the home game to air force I Love backing teams coming off of those losses where they they're familiar with air force They've played them twice already this season And we saw what they could do at air force the first game And so getting them in this third matchup with a little bit of revenge on their mind and needing a win here And needing a big spread here. I can really get behind new mexico minus 15 and a half And then the other one that i'm really looking at is it might be the last game of the day is utah in arizona state And this is another team in utah that was kind of on the bubble all year and Had some rough losses and just did not end the year super well But with these conference tournaments, they are absolutely in contention for the automatic qualifier as the sixth seed It would definitely be a stretch for them to win the pack 12 tournament But even winning a couple games to get there would put them much closer up on the seed line And get them close for the bubble utah is a team that's rated well in the advanced metrics all year whereas arizona state has They haven't really shown the capability to beat good teams consistently especially away from their home court So on a neutral court on a new neutral environment I'll take a utah team that is a lot more experienced and Has something to play for compared to this arizona state team And so five and a half is a pretty nice number for me right there and i'm comfortable laying that as well That is minus 120 on utah minus five and a half the new mexico line gets air force minus 15 and a half is minus 106 Now you're talking about the incentive for them to win multiple games And I think that could work two ways where on the one hand if they need to win more than just this game They could say we got a big lead we can kind of scale back on guys Other side though is style points do matter And so I think that when you're looking at the new mexico game specifically at 15 and a half I think that when you I mean even before you like a factor in any potential revenge factor I think there is an incentive there to kind of flash. Is that part of why You're okay laying minus 15 and a half in this spot even though you know that they need to go Beyond just this game in the tournament Yeah, this has been like a big top of conversation this whole basketball season is The nca uses this evaluation tool when they're making their bracket And it's called the net and a lot of what the net is based off of is point differential right and There are some metrics hazel metrics uses this thing. Um It stops taking in data basically when the game is statistically over right the net does not do that Okay, so Beating a team by 50 even if you're favored by 40 Still means a whole lot even compared to beating a team by 10 if you were only favored by four Yeah So there is definitely an incentive for teams to lay it on especially when the when they're on the bubble and The metrics are going to be so close and the resumes are going to be so tight That teams are going to be incentivized to continue poor on the points to continue seeing their keeping their starters out there And we've had coaches come out and say This is just the world we live in now. Yeah, we have to kind of lay it on and so That has made me all season a little more comfortable to lay these higher spreads that can definitely look a little scary But knowing that they're going to have to continue putting on the points and up into scoring differential It makes me more comfortable to do that and knowing that they are on the bubble and they have more incentive to go Full throttle for the entire game. I think that does help too So aiden likes new mexico minus 15 and a half minus 106 along with utah minus 5 and a half at minus 120 That is aiden codder Make sure you check them out on twitter at aiden codder fd Find his work over at fandal research and check him out again here next week on the show breaking down The actual bends basketball tournament as well aiden a pleasure to get you on the show here for today Good luck to you with your bets today and enjoy the basketball. I'll talk to you again next week Absolutely jim. Thanks for having me on Alrighty appreciate you aiden once again, and we'll talk to him again next week here on the show Make sure you subscribe to covering the spread to get those shows as they go live as we have a jam packed week In store for next week. I am on twitter at jim sonnis You can find a fandal research on twitter at fandal research Don't forget to subscribe to the show and also check us out on the fandal youtube page and fandal tv Plus as mentioned tomorrow talking nfl free agency takeaways with ryan williams We'll talk to all of you then this has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network