 Welcome to Tick Mill weekly market outlook for week menacing the 6th of April with me, Patrick Mullerley. With the Covid-19 pandemic leading to increased measures to control the outbreak, the economic data flow has started to reveal the impact on the global economy. The coming week sees more official data released to cover the month of March, but market watchers are going to have to be careful in interpreting official numbers as many agencies will struggle to calculate data using established techniques such as face-to-face interviews. As the number of cases of Covid-19 increases across the US, any emergency measures are becoming more stringent. The impact of the outbreak and uncertainty surrounding its longevity continue to grow. As such, jobless claims will be eyed for further signs of mounting job losses after recent record jumps in numbers. Consumer sentiment surveys will be eagerly watched for signs of further decreases in spending and expectations. Given an insight into the housing market sentiment is the release of mortgage application data, which could show a steep reduction in the number of buyers who are holding off from purchasing. FOMC Minutes and Inflation Updates are also released from a technical perspective. The dollar index has reached the equal-leg target of the 160 level, and we'll be watching how sellers respond at this area. If we can get a key-day reversal pattern on the daily charts, then we could be looking for a second leg of downside. However, as this 100 area acts as support, there is the potential to see another leg higher here to test the next upside objective of the 101 65 to 101 91 area. Like I say, if we can see a close below the 100 level, that will encourage the view that we are about to embark upon the second leg of corrective downside with a target down towards this 9650 area. Once we're talking about the dollar, let's check in with gold. As it holds this 1624 area, I've been looking for another leg of corrective downside now with an equal-leg target at this 1547, which also represents the 50% retracement of the advance that we've recently witnessed. So I've been looking for buyers to step in here on intraday or daily reversal patterns to set long positions, targeting a retest of this 1644 high and ultimately a break of those highs up then to test the prior cycle highs at the 1700 level. If we fail to find support at the 1548 level, then the next area of interest will be this 1500 area, which represents the 161 extension of this current ADCD pattern and the 78.6 retracement of the advance. So that's the next key level if we fail to hold the 1548. February industrial production figures are due from Germany and Italy over the coming week. February manufacturing PMI data showed signs of stress last month, primarily in export orders and on the supply side as well as input deliveries from China, which were severely disrupted as the number of COVID-19 cases in Europe continues to rise and authorities keep public health measures in place to stem the spread. The economic impact will only worsen prospects for manufacturers at bleak as intra-European trade looks set to suffer tremendously, particularly as the continent's largest economies are those suffering the heaviest outbreaks. From a technical perspective, the euro dollar has tested the equal leg level of the 10816 and we're looking to see now if buyers can step in. We really need to see a close above 109 to confirm a base, setting targets then on a second leg of corrective upside up into this 113 area. However, if we fail to establish ground above the 109 level, look for a further leg lower to test the 10670 and more likely not a retest of the base here at 10620. In normal circumstances, UK monthly GDP update will be analysed with fine detail to guide full quarter growth expectations, but the latest release of February data will be largely irrelevant in being too backward looking. PMI signalled a record decline in overall business activity in March as the UK stepped up its public health response to the global pandemic. Historical comparisons of the PMI with the GDP indicate that the March survey reading is consistent with GDP falling at a quarterly rate of 1.5 to 2%. More than sufficient to push the first quarter into negative territory and put the UK on course from very deep recession. That said, official export and services data may provide extra detail of the early impact of COVID-19 on external demand of tourism. From a technical perspective, as the sterling dollar continues to hold 122 support, there's the potential to see another leg of upside to test the 12780 to 128 hammer. However, if we fail to hold 122 of support, look for a deeper pullback this week to test 11950, where again we may set a base for another leg higher. In Australia, the Reserve Bank of Australia meets this week on Wednesday, but a further rate cut looks unlikely after the RBA rate cut rates twice in March to a new record lower of 0.25%. Meeting minutes showed that the bank had ruled out adopting negative interest rates and considered the current cash rate as it's effective lower bound. From a technical perspective, the Australian dollar, if we can hold the current 5980 area, there's the potential to see another leg of upside to test the 64 hammer. However, if we fail to hold the 60 area, then look for a deeper pullback to test 5850 before the Australian dollar could try and base to take out these prior highs at the 62 handle. However, a failure below the 5850 level will open a much deeper pullback to retest the 5650 at support. In Canada, far and away the most significant development over the coming week will be Friday's Jobless Report. It's likely to be really ugly and quite possibly shatter not only the prior all-time job loss record, but also far exceed the pace of US job losses during the month in proportion of terms. Jobless figures that arrived next Friday are from the Labour Force Survey of Households. It's roughly conceptually similar to the US Household Survey, whereas a separate lagging Canadian payroll survey is more aligned with non-farm payrolls. Monday's virtual OPEC Plus meeting will pose significant risk to the currency and energy sector given uncertainty surrounding loose decisions to cut oil output by 10 million barrels per day. From a technical perspective, the Canadian dollar look as we hold this 140 level of support looks poised now to test an equality target at the 14440 to 145 area. From here we could see sellers re-emerged, but if we don't look for a retest of this 14670 level. Finally, in Japan, the only two economic events of note are Tuesday's Karen McCann release and Thursday's speech by BOJ Chief Corona. Market watchers will be passing the details for any additional monetary policy action to help fend off the economic impact of COVID-19. From a technical perspective, the Dolly Inn held the 107 support and we now look for a move up into the 10940 to 110 area to act as resistance for a second leg of downside to ultimately target a move into the 10430 area. However, if sellers don't re-emerge at the 10950, look for a deeper move to test 11080 and potentially then back into the price cycle highs at the 11180 area. That wraps up the weekly market outlook for week commencing the 6th of April.