 वहां, य zasadकोग कोई नजानिया, बवास था मुरी आपर्डार वहाँ वय जेमात काई और, आ यन वे आपर्डोन, अपने लिग चटाएद. मच्ठमतने कोछने लिग नहीं! आप बिजद में, और आपर तोलगाज़ए चारगे कोगने डीसा के जेड्भत बरैह्ताता, मोंने जोया करशो Ni rajte bati asar yam sumo टॉक को भ Як भ मनhö� offi बसाँ दीजी लेगी बुत दीने गारी अजी पनगजेगे नहींु पाट़्गेइगी डिन्गमलार, truck तूभ present &convictive.I take this opportunity to welcome Ambassador Rajat Bhatia, sir to our university. Sir, welcome to university. Thank you. We shall now begin the programme with the initial remarks of Honorable Vice Chancellor sir, Professor Nependera Narayan sir, Sharma sir. I request our Vice Chancellor sir to offer his initial remarks. भीजे़ भुजिभ मिया नवाश्खार सुईजोट राज़ेप भत्याdullahहा जी ज़ुद everywhere because thank you. Dr. Vijay Dmira. Namaskar, Sriyajith Rajiv Bhattiya Ji. Namaskar. नवाश्खार. Namaskar. नवाश्खार. Namaskar. नवाश्खार, नवाश्खार नाश्खार, स्विकार अगे चीछन च्रसची, Sriyajith Rajiv Bhattiya. ओलने को विच़ोहा पीठMon औंकलर शबविएका सपझ़तसै औक छोदे कोन्रner, विंbab clusters क्या आ सरची मेत म हो जीा विसदें guys and Wouldnji आ स подарelledएकर सबध्ये हुँ cheesecake ma lon अग़ी। वजजो खुमर्विया श्कुल अब सोष्यल शंजज़, भगी प्रतिकि प्रटृगा़ भी, वगी लग्ट्टे प्रेसेख आप दखनेग, जीो बोलितिक ज्ज़ग धाव ओब भी वगी लग्टेखाग, अगर थे वग जिन्दे क्ये, अनधिस देलिवरी सेजो रास Nov meek switch ॐूू ॥ ूू ॐू ू । ू ू ू ू ू ू ू ू Now, the whole-war in a post-cobie scenario the situation is changing and as if we are experiencing some kind of multipolar world order and in this scenario the role of Indoor specific to geopolitical context and the power structure all these things are changing and what happens alongside this we have been experiencing a lot of changes in the way that trade and economies are functioning after the offides of GATS and the emergence of World Trade Organization we have seen the process happening and lots of Mc�row environmental changes are taking place अखयों नउनानेू than आज में से ध्या की खुद और दोलौग स मैंगीशर्� shikd ama karje ke gayoine ko�का��। अखय hed planetsask already 맛있어요 खूढ़ में सी क्या कोस्फोंठीरे off younger karishya kat ka ogya देखा थेकी मैंवै में थे आच्� behavioura 2 Fantastic ॐू। ॐू. ॐू. ॐू. ॐू. ृू. ृू. ू. थी younger। उसमाच बाशबुवेटा ये। चाआईक अदर श्वाल देख़िए। तो वो थमती बाश्वेट्या तुच्स कहाए बाशबुवोद्या आप दी को जाँगें थी चि mayonnaise चाने काझे बाशवाल। तूल कर्गेईषी तुबलाशा वगर शिड़ेशों हाजिए कर सुथा, वगर बाद्चोई वाड्चोःवता गद्जह कर मेरे दश्कता. तो आड़ाक से ऐतुझा आप आदी कसो आपसा हैं, तो आब आपी मगाम से हज़ाँक विसेज़ां तर औग आप युई आप वूथ आपनी ज्डिसोग से रगट शतचे। वुल्गला में लेखी या थी अड़ा सी वो और छाँई. और्वाँ की मिक्षाःत Strandingily Navarra अगरा में बआरज ता बण्चान्सिलसु जांःटिन चाई किश्टेएं किश्टेवेर जांचाई किश्टेझेजि मिक्चाई. अगयढीकादिमाड at , highlighter आदने राजिः बर्ट्या सिः配 साव दा़ा work अशियँ ु्टी भीईच की सखिला अगज्ँाी आदनेखा� by आबता्यक टीbike acoustic Chleve पात्ची बाटिया उसझो जिसंआचर वहत्रे क्यनी गाशित स Warren ौ ौ ौ For For For बदोन कोंस्यल कब सत Jump Noon LakUMreci सेह कि आआँ भी थी ऐताभ बीöstेक's आदMr1 विय tears हम जोौन एकुना интересно आउन,। पाव्लान layuk మారంటా సైధరిత్రి. మారిల్నిరండిజి కపరరిడి మనాఋదిక౾యి, మరిహిసా దిరికి. అప౟రికరికినిసివరిత్ఁవ ఆందరికి. మారిత్తురికినింటు� ॐ अब आई पाजी को बाचेशा पाटे, ूगरे आप वाढिज के शिएको दीब ताब वह गोंगजा बाचेशा बापटे ख़ोत करब परचीए मैं ठाधीश, आबयजीत आबजी, तो प्लैश्श्य कुव आप आप अब आई वाढी दीद, अपऊव हाटिच को जो जाए म from students and faculty of this great university. I would like to first of all begin by expressing my heartfelt gratitude to Professor Sharma, Vice Chancellor of the University who has taken time from his busy schedule to grace this occasion with his presence and to make some truly meaningful remarks as a preface to my lecture. I also want to thank all the faculty members, Prof. Jyodip Barua and Prof. Vijit Bhujan for thinking of me and inviting me to this occasion so that I can connect with students primarily of the Northeast but perhaps also of other regions as well. This concept of open university is a very good one and now the marvels of technology have made things possible which were not so easy or so feasible in the past. Here I am sitting in Noida at the periphery of Delhi the capital of India and my voice I hope is reaching out to the offices and the university classrooms or to the homes of my listeners. So I am grateful for this invitation and I want to make full use of this occasion to share whatever limited modest knowledge that I have acquired in course of the past five decades. Dear friends, you already now know the exact topic geopolitics of the Indo-Pacific. This is 11.10. My plan will be to speak for about 35 to 40 minutes because I know that I must retain the attention of my audience and thereafter we will have some questions and answers from all of you and if there is a need then there can be also a brief conversation between me and one of two faculty members as well. We will take this right up to 12.30 exact time and we will finish it so I hope all of you have had your breakfast and you are fully with me. Can you Abhijeet hear me properly and see me properly? Yes, I can hear you sir. So here now I am going to take a second to share the screen and project my PowerPoint presentation on the screen and this will remain there until I finish my lecture. So dear friends, you have seen me now and you are now familiar with my voice. Please rest assured that I am with you and I want to make a very structured and analytical presentation and at the same time it is meant for you in case you wish to take some notes etc as well and later we will see how we can help further so that you absorb all my ideas. You are seeing the first slide. I hope it is already on slide show. Yes sir, it is visible sir. Great and I want to begin by saying that the idea of conceiving this lecture is really an innovative one because this helps me to serve as a bridge between three institutions today. You have of course your university and I hope we have got the right photograph and then you have side by side the part of South Block in Delhi which houses the Ministry of External Affairs. I must bring this up here because this is the institution which is part of the Government of India. I worked for 37 years. I joined it as a young man when I was 24 year old having cleared the Indian Foreign Service Examination in the first instance and I left it only when I retired at the age 60 which is the mandatory age of retirement for all government officials in the central government. So what I learnt and what I gained by way of experience in the field of foreign policy and diplomacy is the result of this great opportunity I was given to serve the nation through my work in the Ministry of External Affairs so it must be here. And then you are seeing the emblem of Gateway House. This is a prestigious although small think tank based in Mumbai, the business capital of India. It's a unique think tank it was established by two women over a decade back somewhere around 2009 and it has done some very good solid research and outreach work. I've been working with them since 2016 and the leadership of Gateway House is very pleased that I have this chance to connect with you all. Now as you know the purpose today of this lecture is for me to analyse for you a complex and evolving situation or a subject. So those two objectives are important to note it is a complex one and that is why we will approach it systematically we will define the basic things and then see how much we can build on it and it is an evolving subject which means it is also a subject of current affairs things are happening week by week day by day and therefore my hope is that after this lecture when you continue to read your newspapers and get your news from the digital means all that will begin to make a little bit more sense and here when I say IFP I would like to start by making a few general comments on the Indian foreign policy and this is still part of the introduction why Indian foreign policy because the subject matter indeed forms part of the broad domain of international relations or IR and something that is very relevant to the students of Indian foreign policy Now here I would like to talk a little bit about India's foreign policy and maybe in fact if there is a requirement later and I am not seeking it but I am just making a suggestion that Indian foreign policy itself is such a complex and broad subject that in future if there is an opportunity I will be very happy to speak on the Indian foreign policy itself to this audience but in a nutshell today Indian foreign policy is as old as independent India 75 years it is a policy which has been designed to protect the national interests of India and national interests do not really change you know sometimes their definitions and their interpretations may change slightly but fundamentally they remain fairly constant but that explains why our policy has been marked by a very strong degree of continuity regardless of the change of governments and yet we have to remember that the continuity which is mixed with some change why the change because the international situation the world affairs, the world itself it is constantly changing there are new powers that come up new groups and institutions are created new power dynamics or interstate relations develop and so sometimes our interpretation or whatever foreign policy should be also changes now without going into the previous phases I should highlight that since 2014 Mr. Narendra Modi became the prime minister in the last 7 years or so Indian foreign policy has been at the center of our attention and in fact if I may say the world attention the policy has been first of all very proactive it is partly based on our deep interest in summit diplomacy because the prime minister himself is very deeply interested in foreign policy affairs and thirdly it is the policy which is aimed at broadening the area of friendships between the world and the world so why is it so? it is so because India has a world view which has really expanded over the years as India's economic strength has grown in the decades since our economic liberalization program began in 1991 and as India's technological excellence has been noticed by the world and as India's diplomacy has secured many gains the world view has expanded and therefore it is normal for an Indian foreign minister or an Indian diplomat to take interest in the world ranging from Latin America to South Pacific and from Scandinavia in the north to the southern most part of Indian ocean and even in Takhtar so if the whole world is our oyster and if the whole world is our stage to play it is clear that we need to understand the foreign policy of India in all its complexity and covering all parts of the regions of the world so with that background let me say today we are focusing our attention on one very large chunk of the world and it is called the Indo-Pacific what is this Indo-Pacific what does it mean Indo-Pacific just to first explain right here before we go to the definitional issues Indo means Indian Ocean Pacific means Pacific Ocean so this whole story is about the region whose shores are washed by the two oceans Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean now this is where now we get into the definitional issue the second part of my talk let us again since we are in an academic setting it is best to start once again with these two definitions what is geopolitics and here I have made things simple by simply bringing a definition from Webster dictionary and it simply says that geopolitics is the study of the influence of factors such as geography, economics and demography on the politics and especially the foreign policy of a state so in simple words how economics, demography, geography impact on a country's foreign policy is geopolitics geopolitics and so what we are doing is we are trying to understand the various geopolitical factors phenomena, interactions, dynamics in the region of the Indo-Pacific and what is Indo-Pacific that is the second question now the scholars are quite divided about working out the meaning of Indo-Pacific of course you know now that it is about the region washed by these two oceans but is it a geographic space is there something when we look at the world map we can say this is the Indo-Pacific no not really so is it a new geopolitical construct or a policy or strategy I think this is exactly what it is it is a geopolitical construction essentially to say that the entire area washed by these two oceans is now treated as one single space where developments in the Pacific region are impacting developments in the Indian Ocean region and vice versa what happens in the Indian Ocean impacts on the developments in the Pacific reverse is also true so we can for the time being just accept that it is a new geopolitical construct and from that construct eventually governments make their own policy and strategy which also they call as the Indo-Pacific we will begin to understand this a bit better once we get out of this theoretical framework now Indo-Pacific will be better understood if we look at the older concept which is called Asia Pacific Asia Pacific is a very interesting concept Asia Pacific which basically is shown here it ran from somewhere the middle line of the Pacific Ocean because this is America so close to American coast but it was considered to be here up to the southeast Asia this is the other line in other words it did not include India that is the central point Asia Pacific was the Pacific coast of America and that part of Asia which is stopped at India so it had Korea, Japan, you know coastal China and Southeast Asia this was the concept of Asia Pacific and you are not old enough to remember but I remember that very famous newspaper the International Herald Tribune they used to often use the word Asia and exclude India from it for them Asia ended at Thailand so this was quite strange to my eyes and ears as I was growing up in the foreign service and therefore when roughly about 12 or 13 years back scholars began to talk about Indo-Pacific and you know it was a broader concept I felt very happy but then now the question is Indo-Pacific still begins from the western coast of America but where does it end this is where scholars disagree again and the governments disagree again broadly there are two views one is the view favored by the Americans who say that Indo-Pacific is Asia Pacific plus India that means in a simple language they said it's an area which runs from Hollywood which is located as you know on the western coast of America and Bollywood which is there in India so this was an easy definition to remember from Hollywood to Bollywood and this is largely the American definition but another view is which is favored by India and the Indian government that Indo-Pacific runs from eastern shores of Africa which is here which is here to the western coast of North America okay that means it goes beyond India includes all the Indian Ocean states and also include coastal literals of Africa like Tanzania, Kenya, South Africa so this is the difference this one Asia Pacific no forget Asia Pacific the American definition of Indo-Pacific is narrower stops at India and Indian definition is broader it includes Africa and the Indian Ocean states so in simple language we began to say that Indo-Pacific runs from Kili Manjaro Kili Manjaro is a mountain on the eastern coast of Africa India and said references for the land okay that is the definition part Indo-Pacific has with a big big condition here there are at least two big countries which are still wedded to the old concept of Asia Pacific please remember I mark my words who are these two big countries one is China and the other is Russia what is China's point of view China's point of view is that if you use Indo-Pacific this brings into Asia the new importance of India so they are not happy with that they feel that Indo-Pacific is a new concept invented by the Americans in order to contain the rising influence of China this is the problem with China so they still prefer Asia Pacific but they are the only ones now with the backing of Russia why Russia again Russia is essentially a land dominated country okay it does have some sea here but it is cold water and it has a little bit of sea here and Indian Ocean Pacific Ocean are quite far and it is not all there developed so they still see themselves as the Eurasian power and as a result they are still happy with Asia Pacific but the rest of the country is Europe Africa Indian Ocean states India Southeast Asia most of them they find Indo-Pacific as something that makes much greater sense okay good so now we see it here again just to explain this blue kind of this is American definition of Indo-Pacific whereas in addition to this you know this dotted red lines also in our view include Indo-Pacific and it includes you know the whole Africa and Indian Ocean states and even the Gulf region so narrower bigger one quick word where is this concept emerged now I have been very lucky I have followed this trajectory very closely because it began soon after my retirement and I was already in the field of academics so I was cracking it it has a mixed parentage prime minister of Japan Shinzo Abe who as you know expired recently he was assassinated he had thought of the idea that the security and development of Indo-Pacific Ocean and the Indian Ocean are interlinked and he had talked about the convergence of two oceans you have heard of convergence of two rivers Ganga and Yamuna and of course so many others merge in a river that you know very well Brahmaputra but you may not have heard of convergence of two oceans Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean that is what Abe's concept was and from there it took off there was some scholars in Australia which began to write and produce a theoretical construct there and then the US government took off and supported this idea and that is how eventually India also bought and these four countries have been very clearly pushing and advancing this concept so this is the origin or parentage of the concept now here I come to the third part and this is the heart of my presentation key trends in the Indo-Pacific what exactly is happening in the region how has the concept been evolving and here I want to present to you a very systematic point of view so that you are aware but before I come to the trends a quick look here is also important India, Asia and the world that is what is India's position in Asia and the world so I hope you can see this second chart it is showing that there are top 5 economies in the world India is the number 5 with about 3.5 trillion dollar economy ok and you still have to clear Germany Japan China and US these two are the biggest economies US and China and we are at number 5 so this is one way to look at it of course this is GDP it is not GDP per capita per capita why we are still far behind but in terms of the global size of economy we have become number 5 and the other is Lavi Institute which is an institute in Australia every year they publish their Asia power index and this again shows that in Asia the number 1 power comprehensive power military economic diplomacy is US then China then Japan JP stands for Japan and then India and then Russia so we are at number 4 in the Asian power metrics just to remember where we all stand today ok and now we can also before going to the trade this is another slide I have prepared for you to show you the importance of the Indo-Pacific the entire area the country is the maritime space all that put together it shows that Indo-Pacific represents 2 third of the world population and nearly 2 third of the global GDP so which means that if you can understand the Indo-Pacific and what is going on here you have really understood 2 third of the world and it is very important for India in particular because 50% of India's trade is centered in Indo-Pacific and 90% of the energy resources travel through this so importance I think we need to keep in mind ok now we come to the key trends and I have been pointed some 6 or 7 trends I will be brief because I am keeping an eye on the watch and if there is any interest on any point I can elaborate it later I just want to hold your attention so that I don't lose you so the first trend is China's rise and their aggressiveness all around their periphery China as you know is a big country and they have a lot of disputes with their neighbors problems with India as you already know as we all know their problems on the other side with Japan then they have a lot of problems with the ASEAN countries with regard to the South China Sea this is very important for you as students of political science to understand that South China Sea is supposed to be largely a free international waterway but now for over a decade China has come up with a concept called the 9 dashed line and they have grown up lines on the map saying that this is all essentially China's link it is part of China what are the basis they quote some ancient history and they totally ignore the fact that they have signed an international maritime treaty which is inconsistent with this notion of 9 dashed lines so in short there are problems in South China Sea East China Sea Taiwan you would certainly know that island which is next to China and which has been the center of crisis recently when the US speaker went to visit there so Taiwan creates a big issue between China on one hand and the US on the other hand Ladakh you know we all are familiar with the Kalwan valley clash big problems and then there are these other problems this last thing quickly needs one comment unipolar Asia China's policy essentially is working to at least dominate Asia and make it where only one power center exists that is China and that creates a lot of problems for other countries particularly for India because India believes that not just in Asia but in the whole world there should be several centers of power that means the world should be multipolar and Asia should be multipolar so that is the problem or issue with China second what has been the US response so I say that US is the status quo power China is the revisionist power US is the status quo power US is number one today in terms of military power economic strength technological innovation but it is feeling insecure because China is trying to press and press and finally trying to press ahead of China America so the American policy line is that we are willing to seek cooperation with China and we can compete with them and we would try to avoid conflict and this we will do through a total method of difference in coordination with our allies and friends so I think we should keep that in mind this is China's response then third trend is Russia now I am not bringing in Ukraine all that much here Ukraine conflict is yet another complete subject Russia expert to talk about it because this is the number one subject today of interest and if need be I can cover it a little bit in the question answer session but Russia has moved closer to China that is the simple point this is not to say that the two powers do not have differences they have as late as last week there was the Shanghai cooperation organization meeting they were uncomfortable with the Ukraine war is being fought Russia so Russia-China relations are very close and when it comes to opposing the US they are definitely on the same side but Russian experts point out that experts on Russia in India point out that China and Russia may not be friends in the long term then the fourth trend is about the quad powers what is quad four countries which have built up a coalition and these are US Japan India and Australia US Japan India and Australia okay and these powers are they are all democracy they want to have a free and open Indo-Pacific which means basically a peaceful region where maritime security is ensured for everybody and where every country has an opportunity for atomic development equally this is the vision that quad powers have in simple language they are there to curb the influence of China they are there to make sure that China does not become a bigger problem than it already is okay of course quad is not a military organization they force on cooperation on peaceful areas they have launched a special scholarship to connect the youth of these four countries so all those things are there and quad has made a lot of progress in the last few years particularly since Biden became the president two years back but in the last few years he has made a lot of progress in the last few years but this is the trend you cannot study Indo-Pacific without fully understanding what the quad is doing and a lot of material is appearing in the newspaper so please focus a little bit on the formation of the quad, the goals what they are trying to achieve and are this being successful okay so this is quad for you another trend a trend is in respect of ASEAN what is ASEAN this is a 10 member regional grouping and it has countries like Indonesia, Malaysia Thailand, Singapore Myanmar, Prune all the names are given here it is an organization wedded peace and regional cooperation Indonesia is the biggest member some of the other bigger members are big members are Malaysia, Thailand Philippines but the rest of them are small countries the problem of ASEAN is that it would like to have best relations both with the US which are at lower heads now ASEAN wants assurance of security from the US which is the number one power and ASEAN wants assurance of economic cooperation from China which is now the number one economic power I think in Asia at least and number 2 power in the world but this was fine as long as US and China relations were good ASEAN had a great time for the last 40 years but now ASEAN is in difficulty because US and China are in conflict with each other so clearly there is a lot of pressure on ASEAN and they are trying to find a middle course for them and here I should very quickly mention to formations because without this an explanation of the Indo-Pacific would be incomplete one is AUKUS AUKUS stands for Australia, UK and US so these three are English speaking white countries largely which have formed a strategic partnership that will help Australia to develop nuclear powered submarines and these submarines can challenge China's growing naval power so this is a new development and the other is another formation called IPEF Indo-Pacific Economic Framework this has 14 countries and here the aim is economic cooperation so India is not a member of AUKUS but India is a member of IPEF and of course India as I said is a member of QUAD so that find point why India is not interested so much in military cooperation as a group but is interested in economic and technological cooperation is something that we need to understand and underline very quickly we should also talk about Europe in the last 2-3 years European Union has become much more interested in Indo-Pacific than it used to be earlier they were quite happy doing their own thing in Europe but even as the Ukraine problem came up European Union began to understand that much is happening in the Indo-Pacific area the entire the entire Indo-Pacific area and that they must have a bigger role here and so I have put in a few bullet points about European Union as to what they are trying to do they want largely economic cooperation and at the individual level European countries such as France, Germany, Holland they also want cooperation for maritime security and they are working with a number of partners in the region finally there is the African angle now this is something I really wish to underline that this is important for India and some of the Asian countries who say that Indo-Pacific extends right up to Africa but African countries say that in this whole debate of the Indo-Pacific you do not include us you have excluded us so Africans feel marginalized in the large debate on Indo-Pacific so there is a need for countries like India Indonesia, Malaysia to talk to Africa and see how their role can be increased and can be constructive in this overall issue of contest between the US and China so that is the African angle so we have run through key trends and you would see that this makes it a complex region now what is India's policy in the next few minutes let me make that very clear I think the first line says it all India developed its first version of policy which was known as look east policy I am sure all of you are fully aware of it because it began back in the 1991 then when prime minister Modi came it was changed to act east policy people in northeast are familiar with these two the third phase is not the official word but this is my research and understanding and I want to underline that IPP means Indo-Pacific policy so in the last four years and I have mentioned here the number of countries which show you number of years when major speeches by Mr. Modi were made and those speeches have defined these three phases of the policy and at this stage the one project which India is particularly pushing hard is called Indo-Pacific oceans initiative now you people staying in northeast you are still a bit far from the ocean but you are not very far from the bay of Bengal so it will be worthwhile to read a little bit more on Indo-Pacific oceans initiative and see how we are trying to develop cooperation centered on the maritime sector and for your benefit I have chosen this quotation from Dr. Jaishankar latest speech he delivered at Chulalongkan University in Thailand where he defined our policy in one paragraph and be useful to study and ponder over this paragraph so as I have already explained India favors the wider definition of Indo-Pacific India's plan A or the preferred plan is to have cooperation with all including China but we have a plan B and that plan B is that if China cannot be convinced to cooperate with everybody then an anti-China coalition has to be strengthened and that is quite even yesterday speaking at the US Dr. Jaishankar said that our challenge is to manage China so whether you manage through plan A or plan B that is New Delhi's choice that will depend on the circumstances but we have a challenge that we have to and of course India is keen to build bridges with all regions Europe, UK, Africa so at this stage dear friends let me include I have already actually done about 40 minutes and all that I am seeing is that Indo-Pacific has to be understood in the context of COVID-19 economic slowdown in Ukraine the three big happenings in the last two years all that has happened is that India has been very alert, very active on the world scene and as a result India is emerging as the balancer and as an influential leader on the Indo-Pacific stage and indeed on the world stage so in that context I want to again draw your attention that India is entering a very very important phase in its diplomatic history next year it will host two big summits Shanghai Cooperation Organization and G20 and therefore for you as informed citizens of India and of course as scholars of political science international affairs, Indian foreign policy it is simply inescapable you cannot avoid it but to study the developments in the Indo-Pacific I hope this detailed presentation structured systematic point by point will help you to understand developments in the future and I am very much available for any kind of questions that you may have thank you very much thank you very much sir thank you sir for your thought provoking and insightful lecture we really stand enlightened and benefited from your deliberations we have learned a lot we have actually thrown light on so many important issues like you have highlighted the complex and evolving situation in the Indo-Pacific region and in the contemporary period we have talked about the key trends in the Indo-Pacific in the region with regard to India's policy and how India has actually begun to take centre stage in terms of its in terms of our maneuvering in world affairs in the recent past we have talked about how India's foreign policy has broadened over the years as newer areas of friendship have emerged across the world with regard to India then India's world view in that context has expanded and India's excellence is being noticed by the world ever more so in the contemporary period then in the past then we have talked also about the the key trends in the Indo-Pacific region with regard to the Quad Alliance the AUKUS Alliance and so on overall we have highlighted the emerging trends in the Indo-Pacific region and how actually previously the region itself was known as Asia Pacific and how it has been rephrased as the Indo-Pacific with a stress on the convergence of the two oceans India and the Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean so now I would like to request our participants to or raise their doubts or ask any question or queries if they have actually we already have a question in the chat box we have several questions in the chat box I would say that first one is from Jyoti Khattuniar from our university itself he says it seems that Quad is interested in stopping the emergency of maybe China as a major power especially in economic and military fronts what are the practical strategies that they are going to develop in future there are some joint maritime exercises between Australia and India PM Abbott and PM Modi had an agreement in 2014 are they designed directly to stop China's maritime power let us begin with this question itself I think it is inevitable that we have to talk about China and what exactly the other side is trying to do China is the number two economy in the world today China is number two military power in terms of Navy it has actually become number one it has 350 ships which is larger holding than the US so clearly what the other side is doing the Quad is a defensive approach having seen the aggressiveness of China in South China Sea and East China Sea the plan for these four countries is to develop economic cooperation and technological cooperation within the format of the Quad but when it comes to maritime cooperation they still prefer largely to do things either bilaterally or trilaterally so for example there are lots of exercises that India and US Navy do there are lots of bilateral exercises between India and Japan India and Australia do but there is one exercise which is done among all the four countries four Navy and that is the Malabar exercise the point to remember is that these bilateral, trilateral quadrilateral maritime exercises they are outside the purview of the Quad officials have made it very clear that Quad's focus is not on security and this is all, you have to appreciate why they are doing this Quad's focus is on economic and technological cooperation because they want to make the ASEAN feel comfortable with them to Quad it's very important to have ASEAN on their side and as I said ASEAN doesn't want to choose China and the US and if you bring in the concept of hard security then ASEAN will be put off and therefore ASEAN came up with its own concept ASEAN's outlook on Indo-Pacific which is quite similar to India's outlook and therefore we must remember that maritime security is taken on a different track and the Quad collaborations is a slightly different kind but the purpose is the same strengthen the democracies strengthen their partners and friends so that the rising imbalance created by the growing power of China could be correct and could be managed okay thank you sir, then we have another question from our director sir he asks how do you visualize the active policy in the near as well as distant future what would be or should be the key elements or focus of this policy given the changing situations that you have referred to in the Indo-Pacific in particular thank you very much first of all for you to be part of our program here today of course you are the one who have conceived it and you have invited me and thank you very much for asking me this question I am sure you already know the answer we do have at present active policy but my personal view is that we have moved to the third phase which is now the IPP or the Indo-Pacific policy so what is what are the key characteristics of this phase of the active policy I think first of all after Galwan clash in 2020 I think India's eyes have opened even more about the threats or the danger that China poses to us so everything that we do in the east is sensitized by the fact that we need to curb the rising influence of China whether it is in the field of economy or technology or climate change or cyber security or maritime security so in a way there is a sense of realism there the second point is that I think the policy is now based on realization of increased need for cooperation between India and Japan India and Australia on the other hand so you noted that Prime Minister Modi is going shortly to Japan to attend Shinzo Abe's funeral that is a political signal that is being given about the interest of India in Japan and with regard to Australia I think in the last 5 years there has been so much happened in the bilateral relationship including the early harvest FTA that we can say that Australia-India relations are in a new phase altogether beyond that I think as I mentioned we are still focused on ASEAN it is not easy to persuade all ASEAN countries to work closely with India because there are some of them which are very closely aligned with China as you know Laos Cambodia and now given the complex situation even Myanmar but then there are other countries Philippines they have just bought BrahMos missiles from India there is a big strategic development Indonesia which has been working with us to do increased defence cooperation that is also a very positive thing so fundamentally to my mind the current avatar of ACTI's policy or what I call IPP is focused on two principle pillars one develop stronger economic and technological cooperation among like-minded countries and second keep accelerating defence cooperation and maritime security cooperation with select countries this is what India is doing now right thank you sir then we have another question from from from Jhanavi Devi she asks she actually states thank you very much for your presentation on a theme of immense significance and then she goes on to ask sir what is your opinion regarding IPP will it be possible for India to implement plan A in near or far future or maybe eastern future thank you so this plan A and plan B is also really the outcome of my research plan A really emanates from the word which appears in all the speeches by the prime minister and the foreign minister and that word is inclusive India stands for free open and inclusive Indo-Pacific inclusive is a code word to say that China will be part of this and this sounded convincing before 2020 but after 2020 when in June Indian soldiers were killed and also the Chinese soldiers were killed India-China relationship really went south and despite all efforts for the last 2 years there still are 2 or 3 major border friction areas and then on top of that there is a perception that even the areas where they have withdrawn from and where now the buffer zones are being established they are on the Indian held territory so given all this I am not all that sanghwain about plan A how do you include China in a region-wise political and security framework when they continue to defy international law and therefore my way to understand what India and other countries are doing is to call it plan B which is to say that we will have to do things directly to curb and counter the Chinese influence through whatever methods that are available to us and that is why exactly as Prof. Abhijeet Bhuyan had told me in the beginning that sir please help us to understand Indo-Pacific with the focus on China this is exactly where it is plan A cooperate with them but if that doesn't work plan A be ready to strengthen the anti-China coalition and all efforts to counter China thank you sir sir then again she asks sir although India is a part of the US what do you think regarding recent F-16 fleets sustainment that was given to Pakistan by US and which India has opposed do you think this was a one-time transaction or do you think this represents a strategy of the US to cause disturbances in the Indian subcontinent region and manage India since it is emerging as a fifth largest economy sir actually I was also thinking along those lines sir I would like to hear from you sir regarding this I have a different perspective from the perspective of the person who is asking this question I think he or she may be influenced generally by the regular media headlines on this subject first of all the world does look different from Washington and Delhi so for Delhi to think that Washington will do everything that pleases us is unrealistic just as for Washington to think that Delhi will do everything that pleases Washington is also unrealistic they have their own constraints we have our own constraints just as we insist on our independence in decision making they have their own independence in decision making second the short point is that Pakistan remains an important partner for the US partly to deal with the surrounding region the Gulf of Afghanistan the rest of it partly to make sure that Pakistan does not totally go and sit in the Chinese court so that is the American compulsion and the third is that there is a long established relationship of trust and cooperation between the Pakistani military and the Pentagon in the US therefore as a result of all this these fighter jets have been given to Pakistan obviously New Delhi is not happy it's not in our interest so India has already conveyed its concern protested but my point is that this is where the matter should end and we should move forward India is now not an insecure country India is a strong powerful confident country and Pakistan is not what it used to be Pakistan has become a really weak country a country where one third or more of the land is lying under water a country which is economy is collapsing a country which is finding very difficult to run BRI with China which has become a liability so I would urge our scholars to recognize that for us Pakistan is a threat but our number one threat is China and therefore we should begin to trust our American partners it's only by trusting them and not you know distrusting them that India America cooperation in the Indo-Pacific can be furthered right so actually now I have a question for you sir so actually I was just wondering because we have this policy which was launched by Prime Minister Narendra Modi very recently namely the Sagar policies security and growth for all in the region can we synchronize this policy with the quad the lines or the activities that are being undertaken by the quad lines and secondly another part of my question is could the quad alliance in itself be could it be transformed into a military alliance or could we see it being graduating into a military alliance somewhere down the line sir I mean a few years for now and what implications would that carry sir if it so happens thank you very much so first of all about Sagar you saw from my presentation it is mentioned there I did not elaborate it much but you remember this was articulated by the Prime Minister during his visit to Mauritius in 2015 exactly sir that was the time when we were very much into cooperation with all phase we still had very much hopes that China will play ball and be to rules and regulations in international law but much has changed between 2015 and now so of course Sagar still remains valid as far as the other countries are concerned security and growth for all in the Indian Ocean region and in the Pacific region is still very much our policy and in that context as you know very well India has been taking a series of steps to first of all diversify and strengthen cooperation with countries such as Mauritius, Seychelles Komoros, Madagascar Kenya Tanzania, South Africa on that side and ASEAN on the other side but you know after Doklam and after Galwan and after the failure of discussion for the past 2 years culminating in the inability of a meeting to take place between President Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Modi at Samarkand you know it makes it very clear that the relations are chilly between New Delhi and Beijing and in that situation clearly this approach on inclusivity and therefore Plan A is no longer valid at this time and therefore we have to keep thinking about going beyond Sagar going beyond what was stated at the Shangri-La Dialogue in 2017 and focus more on what Dr. Jaishankar had said at the Chulalunkar University in Thailand so this is my answer to your first question the second question is very interesting and I should not presume to know the answer fully let us begin by saying that initially Quad was very much covering maritime security in its embed but I think once Biden came to power and the perception in Washington became clear that we have to cultivate ASEAN too very quickly after the first summit and as you know four summits have taken place two physical summits and two online summits it became clear that maritime security will be kept outside the Quad framework they will focus on those six areas which I have mentioned and therefore that has been the present position but your question is can the Quad alliance develop into military alliance so first at this stage it is not an alliance it is a strategic partnership for economic and technological cooperation but can it develop into military grouping or a military block or as some critics say can it become the ASEAN NATO Chinese think that it is already ASEAN NATO which is completely wrong reading of the situation so I would not know the minds of the policy makers but I would say that traditionally India is extremely very of military alliances India likes to stop at the strategic partnerships and I think that probably will still continue in future that does not prevent India from developing bilateral relationship of the kind that helps it to fulfill its security and military responsibilities so I am leaving that room for improvement and maneuver and yet I think we have to note which I mentioned earlier that one example of military exercises, naval exercises that is taking place involving all the four which is Malabar so in effect what seems to me is that if things really get bad it is quite possible that military cooperation may have to be at the level of four countries but we are not there yet and the time being the judgment is that working with one or two countries only we can fulfill the responsibilities and manage the challenges that is where we are thank you very much actually I don't think we have any more questions well let me urge let me urge the students once again I mean we are still at their disposal you know I could have elaborated everything in even greater detail but I wanted to leave enough time for questions so while I am going to speak for 2-3 minutes more I earnestly request the students at least two or three of them to come out or come up with some questions meanwhile let me make a couple of points for general nature all of you are very lucky because you have access to technology today this is not like our times when in order to increase our knowledge we have to rush to library borrow books or take somebody else's notes today you know everything at your fingertips you just have to google search and get to learn about quad about IPF about Indo-Pacific about China's designs about Lavi Institute but you have to use it you have to use it fully and please don't think that oh what will I do with so much knowledge in my head I just need to clear my examination dear friends my experience tells me that you can never acquire too much knowledge in fact the more knowledge you acquire the more clear things become in your mind and then when you write the whole thing in simple language your teacher and your examiner would immediately know how to acquire a girl here is a student here is a scholar who has understood the whole thing clearly you know I want to relate this to my own experience for last over a decade believe me almost every day I read something new about Indo-Pacific and as I stress it is an evolving subject so when told me that this subject is good for a while I was start I said where am I going to begin and where am I going to end and then I tried to put myself in your shoes and I said let's understand what students need they need to understand but they also need material to be able to respond to the questions that might come in their examination and believe me I still remember my university days when you know it is not important for you to write a long rambling essay you have to compose your thoughts and write a very systematic and structured answer which could be in 500 words 700 words or 1200 words I don't know what the format is so keeping that in mind is a snapshot of the vast literature on this subject I may have not covered many important facets but the central point which I have tried to convey to you is that A Indo-Pacific today covers a very large part of the world theater and its geopolitics be that almost all the powers of the world are involved here US, China, Russia Europe, Africa India, ASEAN and see what is happening in this region is of utmost importance to India and so India's policy also continues to evolve so that our interests are protected so this is what I wanted to say in the end I am really very very happy that I have got this chance in case there is any further question I can still tackle it Abhijeet is there any more question I see a new one sir here from Shruti Shubhabarali once again sir she asked sir do you see India being a permanent member of the UNSA in the next few years okay I think thank you Shruti for respecting my appeal and putting a question there now as you know this is a long story been going on for many many years and I know that those of our colleagues diplomats who have worked in the UN in New York they always remain optimistic they always feel that well if not this year in the next year you know something will happen there been has been some progress but not very much so your question is what in my view will happen in the future I think I am still skeptical about our chances not because India is not trying hard India is but we are struggling with a power structure that was created at the end of the Second World War and that structure has really broken down with Russia and China going their own way and the other western powers going their own way and in fact now as you have noted in the last two or three days the dangers of even a nuclear war have gone up with both president of Russia and president of US talking openly about this subject so in this slide honestly I don't see any serious consensus developing among the permanent members of security council and therefore our chances of becoming a permanent member have further dimmed but on the other hand India the importance as a key player on the world stage continues to increase and as I said in 2023 when India in fact from first December this year when India becomes the president of G20 this will be a shining moment in India's diplomatic history and I would hope Shruti and your other colleagues will really take more interest and deepen their knowledge about India's role in world affairs Thank you sir. So we have one final question from again professor Joydeep Burwa sir he asks it seems to me that Japan has a deep and increasing engagement in the region which are more subtle and more practical in nature how do you see the role of Japan in balancing the power order in the Indo-Pacific Thank you very much professor Burwa I think yes Japan role needs to be explored and explained in much greater detail Japan has tremendous potential in the role of a big power in Asia but it seems to me that the ghosts of the second world war is still haunted despite Shinto, Abe and others they have still not changed their constitution they still have a self or a defensive army on top of that they have in the past invested so heavily in China in terms of their companies investing their transfer of technology and the trade relationship between China and Japan so that acts as a constraint on what Japan can do to counter China and yet there is no doubt that Japan is very unhappy with China's aggressiveness with China's role in the recent years and that is the reason why Japan has moved closer to India and deepening its alliance with the US so looking at these two contradictory trends I would say that we have to continue cultivating Japan very closely this is where I hinted there is not only personal respect and love for Shinto, Abe but to give a political signal to those of Japan that there is a much brighter future an unexploited potential in the Japan-India relationship that Prime Minister of India is being a visit so I would agree with the premise of your question we must watch Japan carefully and sitting especially in the northeast I can add this Japan is very interested in your region they are doing a lot of work there I think our scholars and our officials need to keep developing the northeastern pillar of India-Japan relationship in a big way I have had the chance to write about it and work for it and I think every opportunity that we have to connect with Japanese diplomat representative civil society that should not be missed right sir so sir thank you very much sir for responding to our queries and dispelling our doubts so wonderfully and sir we all stand enlightened and benefited like I said before and sir we have touched upon a wide range of issues with respect to the Indo-Pacific in particular and also with regard to geopolitical issues in general so thank you very much once again sir now may I request our my colleague Jhanavi Devi to offer a formal vote of thanks and then we will conclude the session thank you very much and let me just say that you have been a terrific anchor thank you very much thank you very much thank you very much okay Jhanavi now you can go ahead just unmute yourself I think you are muted we can't hear you you are muted unmute yourself Jhanavi now please speak a little louder okay closer to the mic okay thank you Dr. Bhian now I can hear it on behalf of Ujjakumar Bia school of social sciences I'd like to offer a vote of thanks to the vice-chancellor of the university professor Anand Homa who always supports us in our academic activities I would also like to offer our heartfelt gratitude to today's speaker Mr. Rajip Hathiyaji who has highlighted to us on a theme which is immense significance in the present context I would also like to offer a vote of thanks to the IT cell of the university for their technical assistance and lastly we are grateful to all the participants for their active participation in the event thank you very much thank you my heartfelt thanks to all of you I wish you all the best for your projects and I do hope that somehow we will keep in touch definitely sir thank you very much