 All right, I'm Jay Fidel. This is ThinkTech. This is a Corona watch. Right now, it's the most important program we have. Stephanie Dalton and Winston Welsh join us for a discussion of how Corona is doing this week. Very scary. Let's talk first about the speed and spread of the epidemic. It's been declared by the World Health Organization. Finally, it took them a while as a global pandemic. So Stephanie, what does this mean and how fast is it spreading? And what are the boundaries here, if any? Well, I think we're getting a sense of that through the television portrayals of the states infected and shown on maps. That's how I'm tracking it. And it's going very fast in just a few days. It'll go from one state to another. I mean, we started with what, one or two? And now we're up to 36 is the last count I heard this morning. So it's going very fast. And then within it, the geometric progression of the infections is terrifying, frankly. And people need to take precautions. Every time you look, there's more countries involved. Last I looked was something in the 70s, in the middle 70s, and that for all purposes, that's pretty much the whole world. So what's the sense, though? This is, it's like hard to imagine, isn't it, Winston? It's hard to imagine how fast, like a brush fire, moving as fast as you, like those fires in California. Every time you look, boom, it's another mile ahead. Yeah, it's a good analogy because those fires can pop up, the embers can travel like a mile down the road. So even though it may not be right next to you, it pops up a mile down the road. And trying to get ahead of that is near impossible. I saw that Sacramento yesterday has given up on the idea of containment. They're just going for, they're not even saying to self-quarantine anymore. They're just saying if you feel ill, then quarantine. But if you're not feeling ill and you think you've been exposed, you still got to go to work. And the reason for that was because you had one case come in from what I read in the Sacramento Bee, I think that said, and they ended up, it was a patient who they did not test for corona initially, I believe. And they ended up putting out over a hundred people, doctors, nurses, anybody that might've come cleaning people in contact with them. So they realized they were quickly gonna run out of healthcare workers if they followed this policy. So they've changed that. And from what I understand as well, the response now is basically local, it's state. Obviously we have some federal involvement here, but I think they're just gonna try a whole bunch of different things and see what works on the ground because those people got to deal with it right there. Oh, scary. And you know, if you look at the numbers you find that Europe has, you know, country by country in Western Europe, they have like 1,200 cases. Italy has lots more, but the UK has three or 400 cases. No country, you know, not even small countries that are exempt. And the US is right up there. It's not quite as high as France or Germany, but it's 1,000 cases right now and climbing. So what's happening is this wildfire we're talking about manages to cross the border crest across the world. And we should talk later about how biologically it could do that. But it strikes me that the US as a country has failed to contain. It has failed to come up with a policy and it is now incumbent on the states. So we have, the federal system, the states are trying to do things. The states are making a decision as in Sacramento to contain or not contain, which may or may not be the best thing. And then the federal government, its participation here, has been to provide kids or not provide kids. And if you said to yourself, gee, I have a bad headache and I'm sweating and I'm coughing and my chest is tight and all that, you know, you don't really have a lot of options. Not here, not in any state. What are you gonna do? And you don't wanna infect anyone else. What are you gonna do? What are you gonna do, Stephanie? Well, the federal level has certainly not met its expectations for helping the nation along. And of course, in that case, the states have to take it on. Whether they would take that leadership role without a partnership with the feds is something we can't, we're gonna find out about because I hope the federal level is getting up to speed providing the diagnostics and the information and building the government in the direction and encouraging the work to come out of the government at the level that the US is usually functioning. I think that we've just lost our leadership position in the world, much less nationally, for taking control or being a resource for everyone to get through this in the best way possible. So I think the states are gonna have to step up and do what they need to do. And without that in operation, I think that they could be lauded for doing a better job than the federal level has been able to do. Well, yeah, but even then, you have this thing moving so fast and we don't know that much about it and how it moves. And so in the end, it goes from federal, not doing anything, state, and really not able to do that much, and then the person, the person. And so you have to look at the individual, you, the individual, have to look at how you modify your behavior. So Winston, how have you modified your behavior? How will you modify your behavior? Well, that's a good question. I have a bit of a germaphobe like the president and so I use typical things like, an extra paper towel to open the doors from the bathroom and that sort of thing. And very aware of when I shake hands and that is going out of style. And I love what the secretary general, I believe that the WHO did and he does this hand to his heart and vows and that's the new handshake for him. I like that. You can do the Vulcan symbol as well or Japanese bow. I think all those are great and a long time coming. So these are basic things we can do, but as we're learning more, I think the effort now is on, if we're going, moving towards containment, it's social distancing, it's canceling essentially everything from what I can understand to not because we're gonna slow the numbers of people that get sick, although that might happen, but it's to spread out the illnesses so that the healthcare services can actually cope with the numbers that are gonna come down the pike. And it's also to save yourself. It's also to save yourself, but I think that when we talk about the local responses, in a state like Hawaii, where we are so vulnerable to everything here, our shipping, everything that comes in here, we actually, everybody that comes here has to land on a plane. There's a few people that come by boat, but basically, if we have a small number of cases here and we can isolate those folks and everybody who gets off in this state gets a check or maybe those, I don't know, that maybe the state just says, yeah, we're gonna, it would kill the tourism industry so it won't happen, but you could say, like Israel, there's gonna be a two-week quarantine on you if you come to Hawaii, so enjoy your hotel room if you come. It's not gonna happen, but it's a way that it could actually be kept out of this state. Now, this virus is, Secretary Azar, Health and Human Services said we should plan on this for the duration of the year and maybe longer, and it's got a ways to burn. So we just gotta hunker down, take self-care, wash your hands twice. You're supposed to sing the alphabet song slowly. I say once for bulk, twice for remainder, so wash twice and don't be afraid to use paper towels if you can get them. So let me summarize that for a minute. You're washing your hands, you are distancing yourself. You're never touching anybody. Don't touch your head. Don't, well, yeah, but that part of washing your hands, I think, in other words, if you've touched some surface that has a virus on it and then you wash your hands, it's probably okay to touch your face because there's probably no virus or less virus on your hands. I mean, if you do both, you're safer, but that's kind of where it ends. I don't hear a lot of talk about masks. Maybe I should be. You didn't mention anything about masks. Stephanie, what about masks? Do you have a mask in your pocketbook, Stephanie? I want to know now. I do, I have masks more than one so that I can help out if needed, but the masks are only about containing one's own infectious situation, not spreading one's own problems out to others. It's not such a protection from the virus coming inside. And I have, I've seen, for instance, in these condo instructions for if the virus takes off here and we do need to self-quarantine, there's some recommendations that don't involve masks so much as they do shutting down all of the amenities so that no one can congregate anywhere. And but one of the things that's been troublesome in seeing some of the lists of condos that are putting out this guidance of what they can do is something like the mail room. In the mail room, you just have walls and tables and just covered with everybody, touching and moving materials. And you have mail. And then there's the mail. That starts by somebody else, somewhere else. Exactly, which is of course a problem in the school, in school where you're collecting papers back and forth and on all of those papers, K through 12 or preschool kids too, you're handling the same papers and getting that same contamination that the little kids can produce on their work. Yeah, so I think too there's the issue of the elevator. We haven't had enough guidance about how we're gonna get up and down in these big tall buildings. I think the mask would be helpful because we're in such close spaces in the elevator, but I think we need a little more guidance than just use your knuckle to push the button. So we've got that to help us a lot. That's some help. As long as you wash your hands right after it. So if I have a family, okay, most people live with families. I mean, that's the desire. Well, for most people that's the desired approach. And I feel that I need a self quarantine. What about my family who doesn't necessarily feel they need a self quarantine? Do I live in the same house with them? Do I eat from the same table? Do I touch the same utensils? Do I use the same bathroom? Do I use the same, all those things that living together? Or do I send them away? Or do I go? Where do we go? To a hotel room? I don't know where I go. I may feel I need to save them or save myself by separating, this is a real concern, isn't it? Winston, what do you do for that? Well, I think if you, you know, the reality is from what I've been reading, what the news has been going out there, Chancellor Merkel of Germany said 40 to 70% of people can expect to get this in Germany. I think we're not gonna be that much different than Germany. So you're probably gonna get it. Most people, it says it's not gonna be something that's super serious, but if you're one that it does get serious and potentially very serious, then obviously you're looking at a different scenario. So each of us needs to be as prepared as possible. For our families, we need to stock up on things it's not so much hoarding as just being prepared, you know, having reasonable supplies of food, electrolyte replacements, so that if you're sick, but it's more like a normal sickness where you're not completely incapacitated or needing hospitalization, you're still gonna need your chicken soup and your Gatorade to feel better. And then after a couple of weeks, if you can isolate inside of your own house and you have your room where that's where you stay and maybe if you're sharing a bathroom, you get a can of Lysol. So after you touch something, you're fastidious and make sure that you're doing all you can to protect the others in your home. Why don't you have the others go shopping for you? Have Safeway Deliver, Safeway Deliver. Okay, well, I guess my question is, and Stephanie, maybe you have an idea about this, is why two weeks? Sometimes they say a month. And what do I get? Do I get water? Do I get soup? Do I get all kinds of food? And how much medicine in advance should I get? I mean, you get various advice from various sources, not the same. I wish somebody would standardize it or give me a handle on why. But really, if the drug store is still open, why do I need to get a month? Is the drug store gonna close? Is there any real chance it's gonna close? Is the food store gonna close? Is there gonna be a supply chain problem about food? How much food should I get? Well, I think all of that, all of those are excellent questions because depending on how deeply infested our nation is, or various states, we will face or not face that situation. We could face no, it certainly hurt here in Hawaii. There can be no food and there can be no supplies. As there are no supplies, no masks are available and won't be for a while. So we are really vulnerable here in Hawaii, even more so than on the mainland. So I think these things need to be considered and we do need those kinds of supplies in case it gets to be that bad. But hopefully we're catching up on the work that needs to be done to know how to handle this situation. Go from your lips to God's ears, Kirsten. You know, I think that we've got some really great guidelines out there that the state and the city have come out with after our missile scare last year and we realized or the state exactly gives you a list of what you need to have and the city. Whatever's on it, I would say double it, right? I think the Mormons are right. They keep six months of food or maybe a year of food that they rotate out. We're obviously not, everyone's not gonna go and buy a year worth of food, but they can probably stock up and have a couple weeks or a month worth of food and just stack it over in the corner if you have a small place. Be prepared, if it turns out that you don't need it and you wanna rotate it out, there's gonna be plenty of people here in food banks that need you to donate that. So I think it's a wise idea for us to all go online, go to the Honolulu.gov, see what their recommendations are, see if that feels reasonable for you or if you need to double it. I think the last time I heard even though a lot of these things say two weeks supply they actually came out last year and said you really should have a month's supply in case of tsunami, earthquake, epidemic and a month's supply. The way to think of it is like this, Jay, I think not only are you gonna have to provide for yourself, I've been in a major disaster before where I had three different refugees after an earthquake who came to live with me. So I had supplies fortunately for everybody at that time, but it's not always the case, but you can think that maybe you're not just gonna be providing for yourself or your family or someone else. I think that's a really, really important point. And in fact, you know the Nextdoor website, the Nextdoor Social Media, they suggest that you think along those lines, that you think to help your neighbor and because your neighbor may need maybe desperate for some help and it'd be nobody else but people in the neighborhood. And that goes further. It goes further to a kind of mindset about caring about your community, caring about your society, however large or small it may be. And Hawaii is like famous for that, I think. And we may find ourselves in a test for that. So how far can you plan to go, Stephanie? Yes, I'm going back to thinking of the Ebola crisis that happened a couple of years ago. And what you say is very worrisome because we do have a family and a loha here and that involves touching and hugging and those kinds of things. But even in the home, working or serving a sick person, these precautions need to be taken. And that was one of the ways they were able to break the Ebola contamination because people were touching and helping and even after death they were preparing and why is she doing cultural things with their and their faith-based approaches to managing their dead loved ones. So all of those things had to be broken, those deep cultural practices and these loving bonds have to be reconsidered when you're up against such an infectious agent as this virus seems to be. So we face a lot of challenges. In addition to the logistics of getting the food in, I noticed that all the sardines were gone at the place I went. And then tuna was low, a lot of people were grabbing the spam, but so this is real. So people are actually taking. I think that's going to continue seriously. So Winston, you know, one of the things that has been discussed, and in fact, Josh Green, kind of governor and a doctor has been here, I think, a couple of times. And one of the points he's discussed is testing. You know, for a while, the state of Hawaii had no testing kits and the CDC blew it on providing testing kits we talked about last hour. But you know, do we have testing kits now? The tests they reported a week ago, there were six tests, six tests. And I think maybe one was found positive or maybe none. The problem is who do you test? And that depends on how many test kits you have. Now in Korea, they have a lot of cases, but maybe they have a lot of cases because they've tested a lot of people. They have drive-by testings where you can get tested and you can know the result pretty quick. This is really good. I haven't noticed any drive-by testing here and I don't think there will be in the near term. And furthermore, I think that we don't have the kits to do anything. I just, you know, it's interesting you mentioned that because I just saw right before the show that Urgent Care Hawaii is going to be offering drive-by testing. Really? Yeah. That's an advance. It's an advance. And I think, you know, humans are very resourceful people. While this is going to be changing our society in ways that we can't quite imagine yet, there's going to be a lot of good things that come out of it too. And a lot of things, unintended consequences, good and bad, the world of remote meetings and remote work is certainly going to increase out of this because people are going to realize I really didn't need to see that person in person when I could handle this. So we're going to be a little bit more electronically changed probably, but in other ways, there's going to be new types of civic groups and communities and perhaps we will get out and meet our neighbors a little bit more and see if they need something to see how they're doing because it's going to be up to us. Their son might be trapped in the mainland and not be able to come and look after them or whatever it is. So we do need to look out for each other. We do need to reinvest in our humanity and just delve in and just rediscover our humanity. That's been so lost in the last few years. That's the biggest threat of all. Stephanie, I want to talk about the plague for a minute. Okay, the bubonic plague, the black plague. The black plague, smallpox, what have you, millions of people were killed. A big percentage of Europe died and in the Middle East I think also had and it was really devastating. And one conclusion that John David Ann made, he's a history professor at HBU and he comes on and talks about this was that in the history of the plague, it set your back by hundreds of years. He said 300 years of a backward turn and they had to catch up later. All the initiatives, the enlightenments, the sciences, the arts are all stuck because of the plague and because so many people were killed. And what Winston said is really resonant. We have to avoid that. We don't want to have that happen to us. We want to be smarter than they were back in the 14th century. So my question to you is how do we do that? How do we do that now? How do we change our mindset? So it's not panic and it's not isolation, physically and mentally, it's something more human. How do we do that? Well, I think there's an example of that that just happened but I understand what you're saying. We need to protect ourselves and take precautions to prevent infection and infection spreading, but we also need to preserve our knowledge base. So if the numbers get high enough, it can erode the knowledge base, which is what of course happened during these other infectious plagues that occurred over the Middle Ages and we had to suffer for that and start over. But what I had recently happened is a conference I was scheduled to go to in San Francisco in the middle of next month. So just this week they finally made a decision about what to do with that conference which has international attendance as well as national attendance. And so about 15,000 people were already signed up for this annual conference that everybody goes to who's in the profession that it represents. And it turns out that they have shifted from having a place-based conference over to having an online conference. So now they're preparing for everybody to be engaged with the conference through their computers and their online resources. And I mean, if they can make this happen, it will certainly be a model for others. So it will show that we don't have to cancel the important conference that brings together the thinkers and the producers of knowledge, but we can shift into our technological capacity. That raises an interesting question. Is an electronic conference as good? Well, this morning I got a notice from the NAB, the National Association of Broadcasters, which Carol Monalee and I have attended a couple of times. And when you go to one of those, it takes the whole conference center at Las Vegas, 100,000 people plus and they're all together, sharing, communicating, learning. It's quite an experience. You know, your mind is filled with new ideas. Absolutely. And you can't do that as well on a machine. So the question I put to you, Winston, I put this to you, is will this cause better, more robust technology for remote connection so as to replace the idea of a physical conference? There's no doubt that it's already happening, like Stephanie said, her conference is going online. But humans are social creatures. We want to get together. We want to go to church. We want to go to our neighborhood board meetings. We want to go to conferences. It's going to continue. We saw what happened with SARS or even bad influence of outbreaks. We'll figure this one out. Like I said, humans are very resourceful. We've already sequenced the genome of this, which means, and the discoveries that come out of this are going to bleed through to other viral issues, perhaps cancer, where we're going to gain a lot as well from this as much as we lose. And you know, I think it's important to realize that even in China where people were on lockdown for the last two months, the stores are still open. People are getting food. They're getting medicine as they need it now. There might be some runs on certain things like masks because everybody went out and bought those right away or Purell or toilet paper here in Hawaii, but the supply chains are going to be kept open. And so we don't need to hoard and panic. We just need to be prepared in a way that we always should be prepared. So nothing new about that. And our economy will, it's going to suffer a little bit. There's no two ways about it, but I think that we're going to come back and we will be fine. It's going to take a little bit of time, but we're resilient people. We're going to play some music now, some uplifting music. Maybe you can sing for us, Jay. No, no, you don't want that, trust me. Well, you know what this raises is the fact, you know, you talk about the medicine and the science and all that. And our government under Trump has peddled backward at a rapid rate to avoid science, defund the CDC, defund the teams that have been organized in earlier administrations to deal with epidemics. And we now know that epidemics are endemic. We're going to have them, as you mentioned. We're going to have a virus today, another one tomorrow, another one tomorrow. It's just the human condition. Human condition now includes viruses. And the question I have in my mind is, you know, we were really caught short on this one. We don't have a cure. We have a treatment, but it's imperfect. And we are 18 months, everybody says 18 months. It may be more to a vaccine. We should be ashamed of ourselves that we didn't prepare for this because scientists have known for a long time that, you know, epidemics lead to pandemics lead to endemics. So my question is, you know, are we going to be able to really learn here? Or is this the kind of thing in the human condition where you only attend to it as in the plague when it's eating you? And then you go back to complacency after it. Can we actually hold the thought on this or will we return to complacency? I just wanted to mention that the Hanta virus was one of these situations that the CDC became famous over along with the University of New Mexico Medical School. So it's not so long ago, 20 years ago, that we had that in the Four Corners of the Southwest. So we did learn a lot, and hopefully that's just a small example. Well, Winston, close. Give them the wisdom you've been dying to give them. You know what? I remain optimistic that humans can overcome this and we're going to learn. We might get complacent again, but we're going to learn a lot of lessons out of this and we're going to be okay. All right. Thank you guys. Watch this. Thank you guys. Mahalo. Mahalo.