 Welcome to TICMO Weekly Market Outlook for week commencing the 15th of March with me Patrick Mullerley. The highlight of the week ahead will be Wednesday's Fed meeting. We'll get to see the new set of quarterly projections where 2021 GDP will likely be revised higher from 4.2% median in December. There will also be a lot of interest in the Fed Fund Rate dot plots. Does the Fed 2023 dot plot median shift to 25 basis point hike? Probably not, but the dollar would probably rally if it did. Yet a largely unchanged FOMC meeting and a meeting statement and the J-PAL press conference repeating that the Fed has a long way to go before reducing stimulus should prevent the dollar running too far ahead. That said, it's hard to see that the Fed chairman altering his laser fare comments about the US Treasuries made to the Wall Street Journal just a couple of weeks ago. And on that subject the Treasuries, there is huge focus on whether the Fed extends its US Treasury exemption from the supplementary leverage ratio due to expire at the end of the month. Failing to extend it would be a big surprise. Hit Treasuries and also hit equities on the view that US banks would have to raise more equity capital. Away from the Fed, US data released over the next week should be a little less impressive. February retail sales should correct lower from the stimulus inspired January surge. And poor weather will have impacted February industrial production. Also look out for US-China political developments where senior officials meet in Alaska on Thursday ahead of an annual US report. Congress on Friday detailing security implications of the US economic relationship with China. Also remember that the US clocks have sprung forward and briefly narrowing the time difference between the US and Europe. So from a technical perspective with dollar index, as we held support at the 9150 area, now look for a retest of the highs at 9240, watch for fresh selling to emerge here, bearish reversal patterns set in short positions. Ultimately looking for a retest of the monthly pivot from above at 9070 and projected monthly range support down to 9060. At this stage only a close through 9260 would open a test of the 9365 to the yearly pivot at 9415. Euro held support at the 11830, the equality objective I talked about in last week's live analysis session. And the big question is, was that the end of the correction with US Treasury yields still near 1.6% and a big Fed event risk to come this week? It's probably too soon to declare that the euro is ready to resume its rally. Covid challenges in continental Europe are helping aren't helping the euro either, where rising case numbers, slow vaccine rollouts and doubts about the AstraZeneca vaccine are all delaying recovery hopes. It's a quiet week for European data after the recent ECB fireworks and the ECB have said that their front-loaded pet buying will not register in the weekly reports until Monday 22nd March. However, okay, watchers don't think a more aggressive pet will have much impact on the euro. Importantly, German regional elections on Sunday did see a defeat for Merkel's CDU party and that's briefly weighing on the euro as we come into the beginning of the week. So from a technical perspective as we hold resistance at the 120 area, look for a deeper pullback now to retest 11870, 11880 as support. As we find fresh demand here, ultimately look for a test up into the monthly pivot 12089 and monthly range resistance at 120129. Only a loss of monthly range support at 11824 would suggest a deeper move to test the yearly pivot at 11720. The BOE on Thursday should keep its constructive outlook in place with the fast pace of vaccination and the pace is poised to double from this week onwards, supporting the optimistic outlook for the economic recovery. Until the ECB last week, Market Watch didn't really expect the BOE to lean against the rising bond yields this week, but with the market already pricing a close to one hike for 2022 and another for 2023, the cautiously upbeat BOE message this week might be positive for sterling, yet not a catalyst for any profound moves with the euro poids to stabilise as US Treasuries are showing signs of less erratic behaviour. This should largely cap the recent sterling decline. Beyond the BOE meeting, it's very quiet week on the UK data front. February public sector net borrowing due on Friday shouldn't have much impact on the major cross. So with the rejection at the 140 handle, I could see the potential here for a deeper pullback to test this 13740, 13780 area. Watch for bullish reversal patterns in this area to establish long positions, ultimately looking to remove back through the prior cycle highs at 14243 and on to the monthly range resistance at 144. At this stage, only a loss really at 13650 would concern the bullish views, suggesting a deeper pullback to test monthly range support back to 13350. The highlights of the week in terms of Japan is the BOJ policy review announced on Friday. The reason for the policy review is to examine how its policies in a downturn can be more sustainable. Thus, it would seem unlikely that the BOJ meeting ends up tightening Japanese fiscal conditions. In the frame, are issues like one can ruby created for even more negative rates by protecting banks, even from some charges on excess reserves held at the BOJ, to examining more flexibility in its JGB buying or stock ETF buying operations. BOJ will be only too aware that loosening up of that 20 basis points target around 0% 10 year JGB yields could trigger a JGB sell off in the current global bear market for With upside risks to US Treasury yields still present, Dolly Yen showing the tightest positive correlation to those yields, there is the potential that we trade higher this week. But with three month dollar Yen hedging costs still a very low 0.35% per annum through the three month forward, markets are still a little surprised at the above correlation. In terms of indeed what we would want to see with surveys of Japanese life insurers released in the coming weeks, markets will be looking to see greater allocation of weights made to hedged foreign bond portfolios and a reduction in the unhedged bond portfolio weightings. From a technical perspective, while the Dolly Yen continues to hold support at 108.30, now look for a test of 109.85 where we have the yearly R1 Pivot, we also have the monthly R3. I would anticipate some profit taking pullback from this area to retest 108 as support. So watch with bearish reversal patterns in and around this 108 sorry 109.80 to 110 area, set shorts, targeting move back into test 108 as support. Really at this stage only a close through the monthly R1 at 110 could see prices extend higher to test offers to 111.30, 111.50. Lastly, in Australia, the Aussie took advantage of a recovery stabilisation in local bonds and the generalised supported risk sentiment to consolidate above the 77 handle. The Reserve Bank of Australia's interventions in the bond market have eased thanks to weakening global selling pressures on bonds, but the bank likely stands ready to step in with more big purchases to counter any future spikes in yields. Markets may have a confirmation of this in the minutes from the March RBA meeting published this week, which may shed some light on the RBA members' views on the recent bond sell-off and measures to control bond volatility. Signs of lingering commitment to defend the yield target and keep yields capped may provide some mild support for the Aussie this week. On the data side, jobs numbers for January should give some encouraging signs, but the impact on RBA expectations for the Aussie should be limited. Iron ore prices have faced a correction over the last week after the Chinese steel-producing city of Tanshen imposed restrictions on steel production to reduce polluting emissions, with Chinese demand having been the key driver of iron ore prices over the past year. Concerns about any slowdown in the SNAT sense should continue to have a magnified effect on iron ore prices. Elkids continue to deem the current levels of iron ore prices as unsustainable, and the material risk of a bigger correction is a threat to the Aussie in terms of short-term ability to remain supportive. So from a technical perspective, the Aussie dollar has found initial resistance on a retest of the 78 level. Again, I've been looking for a pullback into the 76-70 area to set long positions, looking for a move up to test 79 and the underside of this ascending trendline resistance to now act as resistance. Keeping an eye on bullish reversal patterns in the 76-60 to 76-80 zone to set long positions at this stage, only a loss of 75-60 would suggest a deeper corrective move to test the monthly range support at this 74 handle. And that concludes the weekly market outlook for week commencing the 15th of March. Be sure to join me on Thursday at 1pm UK time when we will be recovering a whole bunch of charts and use FX majors, commodities, equity indexes and bitcoin. As always traders, I hope this helps and have a great week.