 Good morning. I'm just starting the YouTube stream. Just a few seconds to go. Okay, it's eight o'clock on Friday the 22nd of December, the last trading session before Christmas Day, and welcome everybody. Yeah, we are really in holiday mode. You can tell by the liquidity, and I will actually spend a second or two talking about the liquidity calculation that I actually do. But anyway, let us get on with the slideshow, and then we'll get to that. We have got some news, and it's in the slideshow. Oh, yep, sorry. The very first thing I must always do is do the disclaimers. So, remiss of me, but let's just do them. All bookmap limited materials, information, and presentations are for educational purposes only and should not be considered specific investment advice nor recommendations. Trading futures, equities, and digital currencies involve substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of a future results. So, that being said, there is the current snapshot of bookmap on NQ left and ES right, so we can see it's just a little upswing here on both of them. Anyway, let us do the slideshow because it is re-ripping on NQ as we can see. Let's do the slideshow because we have some news coming out in 20-odd minutes. So, that news is the core PCE, core durable goods orders, personal income, and personal spending. So, that is significant. You can see the red marker showing the importance level for the USD. I'm not talking about the Canadian GDP. That's not something I'm covering. We will turn on the financial juice feed. Maybe we're going to get some liquidity or some volatility at that news release. If anybody was watching yesterday when there was a news release, there was certainly some ripping. There was over 100 points straight up in NQ after a little stop run below. So, it is dangerous. So, please be aware of that. Just because of the time of year, there are less traders around and the ability of some of these algos or instos to push the markets as far as they wish is a lot stronger, i.e. they can do what they want. So, we have to be quite careful if we are trading. I did take one trade earlier today and I took some trades yesterday, but I think I've finished for Christmas, so I will not be trading during this hour at that news or in RTH today. But I hope everybody has had a good year of trading and things are working well. Okay, let's keep on with the slideshow. Okay, quick snapshot of ES. Nothing really to talk about still on this upswing. We've drawn across a line or horizontal ray from previous multi-month highs and we've tested it, as you can see there, but until we break down below it, there is not much to say on this daily chart. On we go. NQ very much the same. So, same again. Very bullish. Even that down day a couple of days ago hasn't really done much to the overall picture and, yeah, as I speak, we're ripping up. So, let's keep going. This is a good snapshot for today. This is the 10 minute chart. Since I took this screenshot about half an hour ago, I think we've already, yeah, we're just about to tag the settlement T plus 1 in NQ. That's where we are and we're already at that in ES. So, we have not gone anywhere near yesterday's mid, so we are very, very bullish for the ETH session and we're close to yesterday's high. So, we're in this top quadrant is what I'd call it. Okay, and a quick snapshot of the relative volume. It's at 78% and you can see the range that has been in play. Not huge for ETH. 12 out of 22 for ES and 65 out of 103, but probably some trades were available if you were looking and we can look back at those with our hindsight lens on in a little while as well. So, let's get rid of the slideshow and then move on to the TPO's. So, let's have a look. Okay, so you can see where we are here right at yesterday's settlement and very, very close to yesterday's high. So, there's a good chance we're going to take that out before that news because we are ripping. So, let's just watch what happens there, but if we scrunch everything up, you can see this breakdown day two days ago during the RTH session and you can see that breakdown point or supply zone whatever you'd like to call it. These little dotted lines in Sierra are called singles. It basically represents where on the TPO there was only one TPO before the move down. So, it is very equivalent to the LVN concept in auction theory, but it's interesting that there are two singles there and that we're almost right back at them. So, that is commonplace in auction theory, Wycoff, et cetera, that where you have a big breakdown, it often comes all the way back to retest. That's why some of the supply demand setups that you've seen, you know, me talk about, whether you've seen them on courses, on YouTube, wherever. You often see, you know, if we do take the pen out, so where you have, let's draw candles here. So, if we have a candle here and then you have, let's just draw it like that and then candles there, there, there, all this breakdown, it often comes right back to this breakdown here and that is a supply's demand setup. I haven't drawn that very well, but I think people would get the gist. So, the fact that in such thin liquidity that we've managed to get back there should not be too much of a surprise to people. Sorry, that was the ES and across at NQ, again, right at yesterday's T plus one settlement and very close to yesterday's overnight high, the globe X high. So, you can see that yesterday's high is almost the same. The yesterday's RTHI is just a tiny bit lower, but we are getting very, very close. So, once you get that close, you'd expect with a high degree of probability that we will, you know, will touch at least the daily high, if not the globe X high during the next hour or two, but we shall see. One thing about these market pulse icons is that they always stay on top. So, I don't always have them there and if you want to get rid of them, you can go on to your taskbar and minimize those so that they don't interfere with what you're looking at, but we're going to have them there for this purpose. Okay, this is the filtered, this is the filtered heat map for NQ and it's only filtered to show orders that have not changed by size or by price. And what is interesting is if we scrunch this up and we go back a few hours, so you can see this came in, this is the liquidity that provided the magnetism. It came in, it's at the 16950 level and it came in at the German Open, about 2 a.m. Eastern time, and that was the magnet that, you know, was pretty prevalent if you were looking at your heat map a little bit earlier. So, if we have that there, I think I've got this dimmed out as much as I can, and we go back all the way to the London Open, you can see that that was the brightest liquidity up there acting as a potential magnet. The only caveat was that it was at a round number, but that has drawn us up there and passed. In fact, they actually, they did interact with it. I haven't got any volume dots as you know on this chart, but it did interact with that and then we've come back down and then back up through it. Okay, yes, an unfiltered heat map. I'm going to, we can have a quick look across at the filtered heat map, whoops. In fact, why not, why don't we just blow it all up to max size. Let's just have a look at what they are drawing our attention to up above. So, what have they got? They've got 4, 8, 1, 8 up above, and do they really have 500 orders? Let's just zoom right in. Yep, that 541 is smack bang on the button. That is a huge number in such thin, thinly liquid markets. And that brings me on to that segue. So, let's talk about, I mean this is, let's talk about some, a subject that is very relevant at this time of the year or at any time of the year when we're going into a major holiday mode or, you know, whether it's a public holiday or it's a festival like Christmas. So, let's talk about it. Okay, I'm going to drag something across. So, bear with me because I haven't got it in as a tab. Let's just make it a little bit bigger. Okay, so this is the chart I'm using. I don't look at this chart. This chart is used to derive a calculation or to make a calculation for me on liquidity. So, what is that liquidity calculation? It's shown down here in this bottom region, this liquidity calculation. So, it's looking at the 10 nearest bars, you know, in the order book, sorry, the 10 prices on offer in the order book above and at the bid below. So, the 10 at the ask above, 10 at the bid below. So, it's looking at 20 price levels, 10 plus 10 and dividing it by 20 to give an average number. Occasionally, look at this graph and it can be quite interesting to see. I mean, you can see this correlation of swing points with dips in this liquidity and that's why some of that book pressure, you know, may be of interest to you. There are lots of different ways of looking at book pressure and I won't get that into too much detail here. But the purpose of this chart is not really to look at book pressure for turns in the market. It's just to determine how thick the book is within 10 price levels. And you can see where I get that from. So, when I look across at my numbers that I have, I can see in ES that that liquidity, that average is 92 and in NQ that's 8. You know, that's really not too bad. I mean, I'd actually be expecting it to be quite a bit lower than that. Again, you know, the markets change constantly. They evolve. So that liquidity calculation of 90-ish in ES is absolutely nothing compared to how the ES was even just three or four years ago. That would not have been 90. That would have been about 200, 300 at this time of the day. So that is how much markets can change. And there are lots of reasons for that. You know, we can only speculate on those because we will never be able to prove exactly why the market has changed that way. But that does not mean that volume has changed. So the volume in the ES is as high today as it was three or four years ago with much lower liquidity. So when you see that, that means that without those limit orders, they will be attending or they are very, very likely to be attending to break up their larger orders, talking about the bigger players, because they're not appearing in the book as limit orders. When I see that order of 541, it is unusual at this time of the day, and it stands out like a sore thumb. Okay, let's have a look at some live order flow action as we go into this. I've brightened up the heat map a little bit so we can zoom in on this one. This is to distinguish between the two tabs I've got. This is the zoomed in one, which has got about two or three, four minutes worth of action. And this is the filtered one, which is zoomed out to show significant levels in the book over a much longer period. So the idea is the same as a short time frame and a higher time frame chart. So that's how I'm using those two in the book map. And again, in ES, whoops, done it again. A lot of people like having the liquidity not dimmed out. So if we go all the way in, that for me is way, way too bright. With this slider, I was one of the people that encouraged them to do this slider on this heat map. This is years and years ago back in 2015, before these two sliders actually existed. And I just find it useful because what are we trying to do by way of our discretionary trading charts? Whenever we have a chart, and it's not purely mechanical or algorithmic, what should we be trying to do? My personal view or opinion is we should be trying to make it as simple and as clear as possible for the simple reason that we want to achieve consistency with what we do. The only caveat is that you do not want your mistakes to be consistent. You want your losses to be consistent, but you're not your mistakes. If you keep making the same mistake again and again and again, that means you are not learning from your mistakes. But other than that, that sentence does apply. Okay, and then when we look at this, you know, it's always worth interesting as well before we get to these new releases. We've got about 15 minutes exactly to see where they might be adding liquidity right before that release. And you can see that right about now, or what time was this at 8am ish, they added the liquidity in this zone here. This is the 4808 to 4810 levels. You can see that, you know, if we zoom back back down, you can see that there and they added some up there as well. So it will be interesting to see if that stays in place right at 829, 830. You know, are they flagging where they want price to get to? You know, that's the reason why we've zoomed out and we're having a look. It doesn't mean that price will get there. It's just an advertisement. And at the moment, that's where they're advertising up above, not below. There is a level way, way below, and it's unlikely we'll get there on that news unless it's so far out of expectations. And that level is 365 at about 1750, 471, 750. That's quite a long way down from where we are at the moment. That's 80 points. Unlikely today on one piece of economic news, maybe during the course of RTH, we'd get down there if it was a down day. But the moment I'm just saying, I would disregard it for the purposes of this news release. Okay. So I'm just having a look at what we're doing here. So we're right on yesterday's high here. So I've got it marked at 9825, which is just there. So when they've been grinding, I think grinding is an okay term to describe. This is not spiky sweeps. This is just a gradual push up towards yesterday's high. You'd think that they are looking for some looking to see what is above it and to start with by triggering some stops. A little bit of a way to go in NQ. They put that liquidity there. And it will be interesting to see whether we get there before that 830 release, but we are right on it in NES. So we look at that, I'm just looking to see what we've traded. I'm just I'm just doing a shortcut on my mini profiles to see what has been traded so far. At the top, we are just forming a new high. We've only got three contracts traded at this very, very top. But the fact that we are not rejecting from it straight away suggests that we are going to trade some more up there. And the fact that we're hovering around this level rather than immediately pushing back down. But the moment there's only three traded there. There's no harm just adding that column back in as well. So we'll just have that one as the numbers. Okay, so it's showing a total of 34 over more than one visit. So it's three on this visit. At least I'm getting three. Yeah, so maybe a bit slower today in our talk, and I will diverge and go and talk about other things as well. But I'm not expecting the action to be thrilling. So, you know, it's not going to be a scalp party. Maybe at 830 we'll get a scalp party, but the action should be slower during the rest of this webinar other than whatever may happen at that 830. Meanwhile, I'll keep, I always forget. Yeah, we've got some people watching. So very welcomed. I'm very much in Christmas mode today. We haven't got a lot of people in Discord. We've got a few people in YouTube. Feel free to ask any questions. If you've got anything on your mind that you want me to talk about my trading or trading in general, just feel free to ask those questions. As I said, I'm not trading today and I'm very happy to focus on any questions or any particular topics that people have. I have got a couple of topics in mind that I will digress on. But meanwhile, let's just see what's happening here. So we've got 40. So we'll ignore what I said when I said there were three. So now we've taken out that 40. And we have, let's just double check this one. Yesterday's globe X high. Yep. 9825. So we've taken that out by a tick so far. And we've got some resting liquidity that they're trying to get to. And we're watching to see whether we interact with this. But nothing so far is spiky rejection type action. We're just slowly grinding up here. So would I be fading this? Not just yet. In fact, where are we now in terms of time? We're within 10 minutes of a news item. Hey, Tabash, I got your question. We're within 10 minutes of a news item. So a major news release. So I would not necessarily be taking any trades here. Just because there may be a very, very good setup that you get. You might have had some reason to take a short here. But the problem is that any trade can take a while to play out. And if it takes more than nine and a half minutes right now, you could be trapped when there's a sudden surge upwards like there was yesterday at the news release. And I can't remember what that release was yesterday. But it was, you know, the reaction was quite special. Yeah, Tabash has asked a question. What is my trade management like when trading NQ? Okay. Tabash, I would have to answer that depending on the sub-session because how I manage a trade in that first hour of RTH is completely different from how I would manage it in, you know, this breakfast session or during Asia. In fact, if I would manage it, if I took a trade after the China Open, which is, you know, China time 9.15 in the morning to 9.30 in the morning and trying to think, yeah, that's currently 8.15 p.m. to 8.30 p.m. New York time, I would manage that in a completely different fashion to RTH. So in RTH, I would have really quite wide stops for that first hour and I would not be expecting my timing to be that good in terms of I would be expecting to be underwater for quite a bit, you know, quite a few points because RTH or that first hour is ridiculously choppy. And, you know, if you're 10, 15 points down when you take your trade, even if it happens to be a very, very good trade, that, you know, that can often be fine. So I'm alluding to, you know, the fact that I talked about the rotations as well and how those rotations govern how I'm placing my stops at the moment. And if you look at those rotations, I've been talking about in terms of a zigzag measurement of rotation, I'm talking about a minimum of two bars and a minimum tick distance, which is going to be different in ES from NQ. That's how I'm measuring that zigzag rotation. I think the default zigzag studies in nearly every platform are absolutely fine for that. And I know there's some very expensive ones out there as well, but I don't think that you need them in terms of determining what your rotations are. Okay, in terms of managing that, because I'm going to talk about losing in a little while after this news, I'm going to get back to you on that question because I think it relates to that point. It relates to the whole subject of why we need to get better at losing and why that should be one of the aims, certainly for me, for next, you know, calendar year. I mean, you know, we're coming up to the time of the year where we're going to make trading resolutions for the entire calendar year next year, whether we keep them or not is another question, but that is one of the resolutions that I will make that I will get better. I will, and I will record statistics on trying to get better on, you know, observing my stop 100% of the time. So, yeah, in terms of live order flow analysis, one of the reasons, I'm just noticing this again, one of the reasons why I have these two charts side by side, and you can only say this when you've got them live side by side, not with any hindsight screenshots. One of the reasons why is because you might have a level and you might have liquidity on one that is influencing the other one. In other words, we might already have tagged yesterday's high in ES and we have, but we have not tagged it in NQ. We do not know which of the two markets is the real driver at the moment. You don't know because you're not a giant player with billions of dollars. So, even though we've just tagged this and we're right at liquidity, they may be trying to drive us right up to this liquidity at 16969 in NQ, or maybe they're looking for stops above the globe X high, which is from what I was saying is right, yeah, is right next to the RTH high. So, they may be thinking that there's a bunch of stops because you've got two, the high of two sessions right next to each other. So, that is one of the main reasons why I think you've got to have them or one of the reasons why I have to have them right next to each other so I can see that, oh, you know, we're on a drive to settlement, you know, during the London Open, but, you know, we might already have, you know, I might be watching NQ, looking for trade in NQ, but ES has just tagged settlement and is bouncing straight off settlement and I'm trying to hold out for along at that settlement and, you know, the boat may already have gone because I was not watching what ES did and, you know, that's why you, so we've just gone through this little bit of liquidity in NQ, then our supporting and trying to push us up into this other liquidity there. And I think we have just tagged ES days RTH high, which is 966 in NQ and most likely we are going to go above it. We've got four and a bit minutes and I will turn on that newsfeed in a little while as well. By the way, Tapej, when I start talking about losing a little bit later, I'm not going to just try and just do it generically, I'm going to refer to some generic stuff, but I'm going to try and relate it to some of the stuff that I do and to what is available in bookmap in terms of, you know, the types of setups and targets that we, you know, we are accustomed to looking at in this particular stream. So, yeah, I'm just watching this live order of flow analysis because it's setting up right before the news release. So, it's quite interesting that we're now at the high of the day or just about the high of the session, the overnight session in both ES and NQ, into a major news release, okay. That does not mean we'll go down. You know, quite often we can be at this high, then the news will be favorable in their eyes and we just bolt another hundred points higher in NQ. So, but it just, it is interesting, you know, if they were to go down, it's a very good position for them to have gone down. I'm also looking at the auction in the last little while in NQ and I'm seeing, you know, we can see it here, you're not seeing a huge green delta tail at the top here in NQ, you are seeing it to some extent in ES, but this is quite mixed so that's not suggesting to me at the moment that we have a great delta fuel basis for taking a short. And the fact that, you know, we are still pushing up steadily, not spikeily, towards this double liquidity suggests that they haven't quite finished doing what they're doing. But again, I cannot predict the future. I can only observe what they're doing and I can zoom in and have a look. But, you know, when they have a spike down or a spike up, you can see that one there, or sweep up or sweep down whatever name you wish to give this whole process. It's pretty obvious in bookmark because it's on a millisecond basis. I wish I hadn't made my yesterday Globex high band so wide. I've made it wide to cover both the the RTH and the Globex one. But, yeah, you can see it covers about seven points. So it looks kind of silly in the cloud notes in bookmark. But, bear in mind this thing can easily fly a hundred points on a news release. So in that sense it's not silly. Okay, 828. Let's turn on that news feed. So I will shut up for a second or I will get it going and make sure that we are connected. Yep, we are connected. We are streaming or our friends from financial juice are streaming. So we will listen in to them. I am listening but I can't actually hear anything yet. I am watching my icon on financial juice. It is flashing that it is streaming. So maybe we will hear them but I can't hear anything. I will just check my volume. Yep, that is better. Okay, so they are going to lead with the US PCE price right at in 50 seconds time. So I can see it in NQ. I can see a little bit of fuel. Just this little delta mini profile here. Mini distribution here. That could act for fuel for a little bump up to the liquidity above but let's see what the reaction is. Sometimes they are in the know before it is actually released and I will get the PEN tool out so we can mark it because there is likely to be some volatility at this release. Okay, so a little bit of spiking down in NQ. Even though we haven't released yet. Eight seconds. Okay, I will turn them off. Right, so what do we see? We saw a little sweep stop right on the release. It was a bit like yesterday's but instead of yesterday's having a little sweep stop and then going up 100 points all we did was go up grab the liquidity and then come down. So it is looking bearish because all we did was grab that liquidity and then we immediately went straight back to that scene of the crime which is this blue cyan line and you can see that same thing in ES and now I am looking across at my profiles and I can see that we have got some fuel up above and so this is exploring down so we are looking to see in this where is this liquidity and they have got this liquidity here only 25 at 937 in NQ and let's just make sure on the right chart in ES so we can see all these MBO stops a little bit less bright I have to zoom it out a little bit that 37 level got taken away and they went through it so if we had been watching this chart we would have seen that liquidity there got moved down and then it got taken away so I don't think it ever interacted with that and if we zoom all the way down we have got the round number 16900 where that is steady at 48 orders but so far the action has been bearish in terms of was there a setup again I remember I am not trading but you'd probably be looking at this little balancing zone there so if I draw it here this little zone there and to the extent that was a range you would be looking towards the upper quartile of that range to get to get short and this is you know this is a very choppy market so if it just goes down then back into that range you know once it gets back into that range is moved because the price is resented so it is irrelevant now what I was about to say is irrelevant but what I was trying to say was that you know if you've got that little range there which is just a round about there you know a test up to there and then will it continue to go down is the question nice little spiky action there let's get rid of all of that still not giving me my cursor aha got my cursor back so one thing to note with this is this sweep all the way up there right so that becomes a marker that we're likely to retag that or there's a good probability that we'll retag a large portion of that sweep at some stage the danger with all this thin liquidity as I said before is it can move further than you expect so this could now be that retest of the scene of the crime that we were talking about that we did not have you know the aggressive trade I was talking about was a retest of this balance but it went straight through it so you know we would have been stopped out if we'd taken that trade so it tried to test back up to it so I'm saying that this little area if I draw it it's going to probably re-center it for me but if I try and draw a level across back to the 945 level and so that at some stage you know in this little while there would be a good probability that we'd you know we'd get back down to that level maybe a little bit lower but yeah we're talking about we're talking about timing and price action which is not the best today because we are in the holidays so what I ordinarily say may well not work very well today and it's one of those things you know you have to make a decision are you prepared to trade when a lot of your stuff that you ordinarily might use won't work well today it is a question you know I've made that decision now that I'm done you know it's been a good week I'm quite happy with the week that has happened but yeah so you know you're looking to get in there and but it hasn't come down yet so we're going to have a proper retest that's here in the crime and then maybe get back down they've got this liquidity at 47 but you're also looking at this so you zoom right in and you see are they just trapping sellers so that's not the fuel that you want you want trap buyers to get you down yep that was the exact opposite kind of fuel and then they rip it up this is the absolute danger of trading in this type of market so that could just be because you know for absolutely no reason other than that they could do that yet not for any other reason they took away all the liquidity below smashed it higher and they continue to smash it higher now so this is nasty volatile choppy action and that's probably why a lot of the people attending this webinar are not trading today I'm just looking to see yeah we're at a new high for the session and we are well above yesterday's high now and we're nearing we're closing in on that 17,000 level again let's have a look at what es has done since that scene of the crime at 30 down it's like a v bounce almost in es and you've got this great big liquidity here that they can see that we talked about earlier you've got the 18 level which is 557 and again I still would not be surprised if we didn't come back down for nasty chops up and down so we could hit a lot of liquidity maybe we're going to come back and retest that scene of the crime who knows yeah so one good thing you know one good thing about this is it's a very good segue into the concept of losing okay as I said earlier one of my resolutions for the new year is to get better at losing and what does that mean that means respecting your losses each and every time um I'm going to point you to uh towards three general or not general but you know some of them are reasonably long videos on youtube you know feel free to pause this if you're actually watching a replay of this you can just search each of these webinars that I have watched and um you or um you know just just search for the title there or if you or you can type in the address that I've linked there and it's all about this mastering the essential art of losing you know because we could talk till you know till kingdom come till the cows came home about perfect techniques for using the heat map for using you know the stops and icebergs or or the market the market pulse we could we could do that forever and we could talk about you know about you know timing and entry so that you know we were pretty darn good at it you know we we could get better and better about it but what that precludes is that there is a lot of chance in this game there is there is a lot of randomness in this game I mean we just experienced that with the way that they just ripped that price up after they'd ripped it down okay you know today is probably a better example of the level of randomness than other days oh yeah yep sorry Ronja I'll get back to that so I'm just um you know I'm just focused just for a few minutes on this concept of losing so I'll get off that screen and we'll get back on on on the heat map and this is the filtered heat map so you can see those levels up above are staying in place especially that 995 level where we've just been so that's acted as beautiful resistance okay yeah now I'll answer your question before I get on to on to my interpretation of a couple of those videos Ron so Ron what I'm saying is that I mean let's have a look at this let's use this chart and use what happened at 830 as a very good example okay right Ron I've just stopped time there and you can see I've stopped time at 832 30 seconds okay and this is the scene of the crime which is effectively the price level or zone that price was at before that major economic release came out at 830 all right and what I want you to look at is this delta column here and you can also look at the little distributions you can see each of those distribution you know there's probably one there a much larger one there and another one there so there's a lower distribution a middle distribution and a higher distribution by distribution I'm just talking a large range or balance same okay so what I'm saying is that um price often or nearly always goes down to go to go up so they will go down first to get the fuel to get up and fuel um in these markets you know if if you're talking about a market in isolation that was not connected with every other market which they are but for this purpose let's assume that Nasdaq futures is its own market and is not interconnected with all the other types of markets that are around there whether it's the DAX the ES the YM etc when it comes down here as you can see on this delta column the red means that there is more sell volume than buy volume and in this bottom distribution which you can see earlier let me just get the pen out the bottom distribution really is this part there if we ignore this little top bit of the of the buys which managed to get us to the bottom all of this are potentially trap sellers so that red massive red delta tail acts as fuel to get us going on our way up and here we had if you look at all of this from 830 onwards most of this is red right so you know if we ignore this we're ignoring a good piece of market generated information that they have got a lot of potential trap sellers who will act as fuel to go upwards why will they act as fuel because all of a sudden they're on the wrong side so they've sold so to get back on the right side you know to get to get back to cut their losses or to reverse or whatever they then have to buy all right so and how many of them have to buy a lot of them have to buy and that gives us you know a lot of fuel to suddenly go stonking higher and then when the market is really thin and we look to the liquidity calculation to work out how do we determine whether the market is thin versus thick and remember you have to compare this to similar times of the day on similar days a week etc etc but you know when it's really thin it's easier for them to move the price a considerable distance higher or lower and so they went down on this occasion and again i'm talking in hindsight i'm not talking live and they got a tremendous amount of fuel and then they used that fuel to to to stonk higher which they did so if we ditch all of that go back to that and then we go there you can see we're now at a new high of the session and we're closing in again on that 17 000 level so yeah so that's effectively how they use that that delta and yeah i know it was a little bit hindsight you know a few minutes in hindsight and i didn't talk about that live but ordinarily i would have talked it live had i been stalking or actually correctly analyzing what the live price action was but but i must admit i'm in pretty much holiday mode and i'm really thinking about my trading next week and next year and a very very important thing is if you are trading you have to remain in the present so if i'm trading right now my mind is not right here right now in the present tense and i'm looking at what's happening where whether it's the delta column the profiles whatever else i'm looking at i'm not focused on the present tense i should not be trading it's as simple as that you know you should have rules set in place that you haven't got the requisite functions in place to trade so just don't trade it because it's a lot lot cheaper a lot more profitable for you if you don't take those huge losses okay so hopefully ron that answered that question of how i use that one okay um right yeah just going back to this this essential art of losing and you know i've zoomed in or sorry i've zoomed out of nq and i've zoomed out of e s so we can just watch them on a higher level basis um with the fact that the advertised liquidity is all above really in both es and nq so on that basis we'll just watch them we can zoom in a little bit more in nq horizontally that is and just zoom in a little bit and maybe they've got to come down now and pause and breathe and get some more fuel if they wish to keep going up or maybe they've had enough who knows again we cannot predict the future okay um i may need to draw all right okay and so i'm not drawing something specific to what is happening in the markets right this second okay um just i'm going to you type in some words as well okay let's assume that we've got a magnet and we've got price price is currently here right um and we might have a prior swing high there right and price has gone down here and we don't know what's about to happen next right um but there are two reasons why price may go up it may go up to um you know continue exploring three reasons may go up to continue exploring upwards you know for example there's um key levels or the market's undervalued um the key levels above there's further liquidity above they may be secondly they may be looking for all the stops above this swing high and thirdly they may see this liquidity level here or liquidity zone as a magnet you know there could be lots and lots and lots of reasons right and we are here right we and we have no other history right you know if we take along here and we choose to go up right one thing that we could do and this is on the basis you know watching all this stuff about becoming a better loser is that we tell ourselves and we accept more importantly that you know whether it goes up or whether it goes down is a 50 50 proposition right but you know if it does go up you know we've got a clear target which is there for our first main target so you know um that would become our first main target right around about here right um and you know we might have some basis for entering our trade right here right it may be a prior demand zone it may be an LVN on the profile it may be lots and lots and lots of things but the important thing that those videos stress is um is that it is 50 50 because you cannot control where the price goes up or down you can on a longer series of trades have determined yourself a probability that it you know might be slightly different to 50 50 but in reality you know unfortunately the hard truth is that on this individual trade it is 50 50 it is a coin toss whether it's going to go up or down when you enter that right um and what the next one video did for example was that you know if you have established for yourself um you know say there is a clear invalidation point here right you know if you accept that this is 50 50 right and that you've got your invalidation zone here why you know after it's hit this you know and why wouldn't you wait until it gets back to this invalidation point because you then know you know even if you're talking pure risk and rewards that your your risk is essentially that and your reward is that right and you've lost the need or the absolutely you know compelling urge or desire that you must be right and get this exactly right um because you've accepted that this is 50 50 and you've also accepted that you know you know you you've determined that this you know that might be um you know let's say that's two points and that's four points just as an example you know in other words we're imagining a two-hour trade here in terms of risk reward multiples and he doesn't like using that term but i'm just going to use it because it simplifies things here all right so you know why now why aren't you going to show the patience when you know it's 50 50 you know what's this going to do to you it's going to stop you chasing you know so you get in up here because you know that your invalidation is is all the way down here so this helps massively because it's it helps you with your concept that is that might be killing you which is precision or over precision or or or just impatience generally uh and also you know it's good you know if it if you do go into into um into the rate yes say this was you know say this was the rth session and that too was like 20 and that was four was 40 points right so that if you suddenly are 10 15 points down it helps you with your psychology of being down in that trade as well because you're accepting before you got into it that it really is just a 50 50 and that um you know that you know it's quite low that it was going to go down as much as it is going to go up uh right and then why do you accept this 50 50 you accept it because of this you know this equation here two versus four two are right and you accept that on the basis that if all of these trades are coin tosses and you've taken um it on this basis of you're mentally going to be happy just to let this run up to there and you've got a good reason for that being your target then you know if 50 percent of the time it does go there and 50 percent of the time it does go there and it takes you out out stopped out at your invalidation point you're going to be absolutely fine because you're going to be profitable in the long run and depending on the size of your bets you're going to make you know potentially a lot of money so you know that is why you know that is so important and that's why I've linked three of those videos today um it is such an underrated skill you know so many of these webinars including all of them you know lots and lots of mine have been focusing on on very tight order flow analysis where you know or i'm talking about what should likely happen in the next few seconds to few minutes you know i'm i'm pretty good at that you know you can go back through some of those webinars i'm pretty good at calling it live and i'm not doing it in hindsight um but that still gets us away from this which is far more important than you know the thing than being so precise um anyway that was just my rent for this session so i hope that wasn't a bit overboard on people i'm just going to do a time check 852 so yeah we're now going to go back to live order flow analysis let's ditch all of this go back to that let's go back so we're coming up probably the third approach to the 17000 mark oops and we're assuming with a fair degree of probability that they're attracting us up through these magnets above certainly this even if this turns out to be a brick wall resistance um price often gets very very close or if not interacts with that brick before it turns around and the same again in nq and the reason why we have that filtered one is it's because it's so much easier to see you know um rather than those algavans which make it really really hard so we know that 17 000 level has been has been called out by them as a magnet and is trying to get price up here we do not know what is going to happen when it gets there so you know on the basis of what i was just talking about saying that you know this 17 000 was a very very likely target then you know um you've got a swing point here you know if you'd have that patience to wait till it came back to that swing point there and then then take that trade and assume it was 50 50 then let it smash into that 17 000 you'd have been absolutely fine you'd have got two or three or even four uh depending on on what size your stop was and that is the point you know they they gave us a good example of of why it is so important you know firstly to accept you 50 50 and then just let your trades run and hit hit the targets that you set you know that target that we had of 17 000 is kind of useless to us if we are not prepared to let our trade you know say we got in a round about this zone here 16983 16984 16985 whatever we would have got in through whatever means that we chose to get in uh that target is kind of useless if we don't you know try to get very very close so so you know depending on uh on the size of your stop and where your worn are was but you had a very good basis the fact that this is now the third touch and the third touch we interact and went through liquidity to hold a large portion of your trade right into it or right within a couple of ticks are you not scaling out most of it until you got there and the fact that you'd accept that 50 50 took your mental pressure away of having to be right because you don't have to be right if you've only got to be right half the time you know all the psychological stuff about the need to be right is wrong for trading because it's going to affect your your your balance you know what is it going to do it's it's going to mean you know the need to be right means you don't want to let a winning trade you know go back to break even or or hit your stop you know for example you're on one of those apex things that i was talking about the other day because they have that live trailing drawdown you can see when you look at this and and why you'd hold to your target if you have a 50% likelihood of winning why if you suddenly are managing it too tightly it destroys that whole psychology and why that you know that apex live trading drawdown isn't necessarily very good for your long-term trading psychology all right i'm just having a look excuse me let me just see if i can work out what is at the top here yeah so at the top in nq we've got a volume of 254 so up here so if we add in so we turn that one into a numbers or bars and numbers for example yeah 254 that is a poor high in nq regardless of whether we have a big drop first that that becomes a lovely target much later on because in auction theory that's a poor high what does that mean means we have not finished exploring or auctioning around that zone or it is likely to want to auction further up above it again we cannot predict the future we cannot predict the future of timing of when it might want to do that all we can do is note that that is a likely outcome okay i've only got three minutes again ah sound is intermittent i'm sorry if i was not speaking directly into the microphone sorry tom um yeah maybe i am should look in the amazon boxing day sales about um headsets this headsets getting a few years old some days it's very very good and some days it's very very bad or i just don't have it close enough to my mouth okay um there's one other thing as well um before we got to this i'm talking about order flow analysis here the previous time that we got up there here um you can see that 222 so that was a poor high right so that became a target so this is the same concept that was a lovely poor high in nq so then then we came down but once we'd come down that became a really really good target um so um you know when i was talking about you know you taking a trade here at the 83 to 85 level i you know i hadn't looked back across and seen that that was a poor high so not only do we have that magnet of the resting liquidity maybe the round number as well that 17 000 has been a magnet for them all week um and the fact that it was going to be a third touch um you know like a double uh double top to be taken out so you also had that poor high as a target so that is worth knowing um tom i'm going to try really hard on some of these future webinars to make sure that i always get this microphone lined up one of the things that's hard about that is that i'm always looking around all these screens and then my mouth may not be right next to my microphone because i'm looking in a different direction but that's just one of those things yeah thanks for that comment yeah i'll just make sure um yeah i'll have a look as well see if they see if it's time to upgrade the headset or not okay um so yeah so anki gave us some good action es has now got this lovely um cell resting iceberg above us so you can see when they started it and the fact that it's resting suggests that they're not finished and they've come back up i don't think they've yet interacted with it again but they're getting close and it is likely with one six five that they will tag it again you know i would not be surprised if they don't come back down take this one out first but you know you cannot predict the future and you're bearing in mind you've got this liquidity that they've increased at the four eight one eight level and that great big band at the four eight two five four eight two seven level so they've got all those levels that they're calling out for again who knows what's going to happen in the next hour whether they go down first or they go up first we do not know and we should not try to always know as i hope i emphasize today okay with that said i wish everybody a merry christmas for monday um i hope you had a good trading year so far and thank you very much for coming thank you i will um sign off now thank