 Okay, very good morning. Thursday 30th of January. Hope you're doing well. Just having a quick look at the usual first starting screen. That is something we're very familiar with now, which is a quick spot check on the Wuhan Coronavirus and where that's at at the moment. And you can see numbers still heading north at the moment, but I would say at a relatively controlled pace. We're at 7,783 total deaths at 170. So certainly, you know, I don't want to come across like I'm belittling this as an issue for the people obviously experiencing this on the ground in China and worldwide, but from a market's point of view, I don't think this is too dissimilar to the type of pattern I think that that people were anticipating. I know it's quite small, but here on the left hand side, you can see where the confirmed cases by region are. And as we know, still predominantly based in mainland China and surrounding regions. So in kind of chronological order of size of cases, Thailand, Japan, Hong Kong, if you scroll down to the bottom though, USA, where the five cases first came about, it's probably about four or five days ago now, that number hasn't moved. Germany's at four, Canada three. So far then, other than Germany, kind of mainland Europe has been pretty much untouched. You can see here, small little dots there in France and Germany. So a couple of things, certainly we are looking out for on this matter in regard to the World Health Organization experts. They were going to give a press conference yesterday. My understanding is that the experts will meet today in Geneva to consider whether or not to declare the outbreak an international emergency. The organization then have 15 countries now would confirm cases. But irrespective of that, even if they did go and take that step, how is that going to immediately move markets? I don't think so, would be my view, but as has been the kind of case throughout. What we've been seeing is that certainly this is having an impact on the Asia Pacific session, perhaps not so much as yet, given those reasons about how aggressive or not the spread has been globally. It hasn't really quite influenced the other markets like it was back on Monday. This is just a quick look at the MSCI Asia Pacific Index. So this kind of clubs together then the region as a whole to create an overview of how that region is performing. As you can see here, going back over the last 12 months or so, the key issue that really has been Trump in the escalation of those tariffs and those various points, both through Q2 and Q3 of last year. However, that for the moment at least has been put aside as we have the phase one trade deal, but the virus concerns certainly have had to be baked in to stock prices and a little bit of catch up of course, given the kind of return of markets, Hong Kong, Taiwan and everyone else, I think have consumed to see some pressure. But overall, the point being it hasn't really spilled over into Western markets. So one to monitor going forward. For oil traders, one thing the implications of course is that the more that economic growth falters and in GDP gets impacted by the significant kind of impacts of activity in mainland China and beyond, then demand for crude has got to be kind of reviewed in respect then that yesterday we were hearing from the Chinese government economist that was talking about potential implication of around a 1% GDP loss taking growth in China down to around the 5% region and that would be you know lowest kind of levels that we would have printed in Chinese growth since around the early 90s. So quite quite unprecedented, but I would say certainly not unexpected growth in China has been slowing for a long time and Wall Street estimates are for an equal sized impact as things stand at the moment in terms of the virus is concerned. One thing this is leading to though is there's actually an OPEC meeting. So when all these oil exporting and producing nations gather, that's set to happen at the beginning of March. But given this kind of unprecedented situation with the outbreak that's materialized with the coronavirus that they're trying to bring that forward. And according to the Algerian minister, potentially that meeting could happen next week because these oil producing nations will be very mindful of the fact that they will want to be getting ahead of any potential downside issues, particularly on the demand side, that might materialize and manifest almost if the coronavirus gets worse. I know Sam's going to look at these charts, but just looking at some of the near term price action, we're not actually that far away from quite a key bottom end of the range of which we've been seeing for this week. And certainly this is the reaction to the reopening of trade in the virus and we gap down in equities. We also did gap down in oil and over that period on that one very brief open on comics overnight session, we did print a low at 52.15 and we're trading about a 30 cent range of that at the moment. So definitely worth keeping an eye on today. But yeah, the oil ministers will be mindful that perhaps they might want to take action, deepen the cuts just in order to mitigate their potential weight that could happen in the price. And obviously that's not a good situation for a lot of these oil producing nations where their general fiscal break evens are being squeezed down at these low 50s. Never mind if we start to break into the 40 handle. Okay, a few other points just generally, as you can see, if you were looking at your charts back to the Fed last night, there's not a great deal of movement overall. I guess the one equities were pretty unfazed, pretty similar in the currency market. If anything gold was edging up and and tea notes remain pretty well bid here in the bottom right. My overall assessment of the meeting last night was it was a relatively dull affair. If you did join us live last night, I tried to make it as exciting as possible, but I'm afraid that's just the nature of it. It was very much going to be a wait and see meeting that kind of materialized. The one potential soft dovish hint that came and perhaps as underpin that rise in tea notes is that Powell said this idea of tweaking the statement hinting a greater resolve to hit 2% target and the Fed chief saying the FMC are not satisfied with the continued overshoot. And what this would mean then is that it's dubbish in the sense that well, how do you promote that? Well, you use looser monetary policy to try and stoke inflation. And so that was a kind of subtle hint towards possibly that and that might explain it. But otherwise, it was pretty, pretty vanilla trade uncertainty is eased. He said, though it's not disappeared, global global growth looks to be bottoming out with the economic fallout from the coronavirus still a wild card. So he didn't really say much about that at all. But that was as expected. There's not much evidence here for him to make any real accurate assessment of it. And it's overall implications just yet technical tweaks to the interest rate on excess reserves. That was nothing really unexpected. And then they said they're going to extend repo operations at least through April. And that fits within the timeline we already know. So I'm not going to talk about the Fed anymore. It's come and it's gone. And we move on. The main event then for today definitely is the Bank of England. And it's set to be quite an interesting one. And certainly it's going to be one where I'm going to do a full kind of breakdown of what to expect a bit later on this morning. But quite interestingly, people already seemingly getting a little head of themselves here, the pound already coming under a little bit of downside pressure. You can see just broken through yesterday afternoon's low. And we're just bringing into target now the low that was seen two days ago on Tuesday. We're just testing that now in the future. So obviously there's the risk if anything here is we see we see the first rate cut in a while. And that's what we're going to discuss. And I want to show you this one first. This is a let me just transition my screen. This is a the change in expectations towards essentially markets expectations of what the action from the Bank of England could be. And this is looking at on the right hand side the percentage probability that the Bank of England cut interest rates. And so this black line would show that throughout really all of 2019 the probability of the Bank of England cutting interest rates was was sub 20%. Now, one of the things was we started this year and that remained the case if anything it was even lower. Because if you remember, obviously Boris Johnson managed to secure a resounding majority and that if anything kind of saw risks diminish on the near term at least about this kind of disorderly Brexit. Because as we've seen the formality is is that UK will leave European Union as of this Friday and we go into that implementation phase. But it's all been relatively smooth as far the hard works yet to come so to speak. The problem that you've had though is that economically the UK economy has continued to suffer and the hard data things like GDP as you can see here have been weak. We're factoring industrial production, the PMIs generally have all been softening construction through manufacturing and services. And then you had quite an interesting interview by Gertin Fleger, who was particularly dovish. And that did see quite a big pop then in people increasing their bets that the Bank of England has got to take more immediate action. So this is that kind of forward guidance interpretation from these BOE speakers. Retail sales inflation data was kind of the peak of that. We actually got up to around a 70% chance of a cut only around 10 days ago or so. However, since then some of the more forward looking soft data, particularly the latest PMIs have seen a bit of an about turn because that now encapsulates the period post the election. And generally then if that's forward looking and it's showing indications of people getting more positive about now the economic future, well then why the needs to cut rates now, why not better to see if whether or not that does indeed materialize economically because they're soft. That's our expectations and our confidence about the future. So better not to perhaps wait and see. And what this has led to then is a repricing of this. And this is looking at basically short sterling, so shorter dated interest rate futures. And as you can see here on the right hand side, this is where rates reside of course in Britain at the moment 0.75%. And there's a 55% probability that they're going to remain on hold. There's a 45% probability of a cut. But as you can see here, this is kind of worst case scenario as far as the Bank of England are concerned. Because if you think about it, forward guidance and its objective is to be as clear as possible so that markets can be as prepared as possible. So that if there is any type of policy change or tweak, that it can be digested in an orderly calm fashion that does not create unnecessary volatility in markets. But what this is telling you is that it's an absolute coin toss. And markets are very undecided here, which means then, as we're going to explain later, that initial release of when the information comes out, and it's going to be hold or cut, and then the vote split, that those two pieces of information that come out first are going to see absolutely wild movement in the pound in either direction, whatever they take. Because at the moment, the market is not prepared in one way or the other. So definitely, you know, it's going to be a really volatile initial move. And overall, I would say you want to stay out of that, because it's going to be incredibly messy and noisy. And then it's about the accompanying moves that happen thereafter. Don't forget, there's more detail in the statement. There's the minutes, then you've got the monetary policy report and the press conference. There's a lot of things going on throughout the period of the hour thereafter to look out for. So don't get the FOMO when the market explodes on the breakout then, as Sam's going to look at it technically. It's almost as if the pound's been just simmering, waiting for this event. And so it's got to be tackled with a bit of caution. If they did, and then on the vote split, it's obviously going to be quite key, and I'm going to show you something in a second. But this looks at the voting patterns of the Bank of England over the last several years. And as you can see here, obviously, the usual decision has been to keep rates as they are. There has been the cuts that happened in, you remember, in the period thereafter, the surprise e-referendum vote. And then we've had the rate hike, of course, that came on the kind of slow reversal of emergency low rates. And so you can see the actual dissents are very rare. It tends to be quite close to either outlying, you have two outlying hawks or doves, but generally a fairly large cluster. So it's quite an unusual situation to be where we are. These are the individual candidates that comprise of the NPC. And so as you can see here, I don't think it's much a surprise, given the economic situation generally in the UK, you can see that overall there is a tilted bias to the doves. And the likes of Jonathan Haskell and Michael Saunders have been dissenting members for a while. They've continued to buck the trend of the group by voting for a immediate rate cut for several months. Now, Fliga is the gentleman that was in the FT a few weeks ago that was very dovish, and hence the reason why he's over on that side. And then Silvana Tenreiro has also made some dovish comments as well. The question really, I guess, to tip the balance is, well, I guess Mark Carney, it's very rare for the governor to really break out into the smaller group. The governor tends to sit then with the general larger majority. But in this case, it is right down the middle. So could well be then though, if Mark Carney goes one way or the other, that people like John Cunliffe will go with him and then that that decides the balance. Now, for me, what do I think is going to happen? Well, for what it's worth, I think the Bank of England will hold interest rates. I do not think that they will cut. I think actually it's going to be really close though, the closest one in a long time or recent memory. I do actually think that it's going to be five, these five chaps here are going to say we should hold. And I think these four are going to say we're going to cut. I think, if anything, the most probable scenarios are either five, four or six, three. So 10 Ray Rose, maybe the perhaps the one that's a bit could swing either way. But I do think we're going to hold today. I think better tactically for the Bank of England, I think this will be the overarching mindset that they wait to see whether or not the positive bounce post-election from a sentiment point of view and the soft information we've had holds true and also how Brexit starts to unfold as we start to get in the crux of the trade deal with Europe and other trading partners. I think they'll want to keep some ammunition. Now that's all well and good with the vote split. Remember, the vote split will determine the initial severity of the initial spike. If it was to be seven two, and I'll explain this, I'll get my chalkboard out later. But if it is seven two, that would be, in a sense, incredibly hawkish for a hold in that sense. And you get a big spike in the price. So the actual split composition is going to be quite key as to that first move. I did do a quick poll. It's only about 60 votes. So I wouldn't read too much into it. But I put it out there this morning just to the general Twitter community. What do you think is going to be the course of action today? Seven two hold, six three hold, five four hold. You can see that's what I'm going for or four five cut. So they actually do cut rates. The most probable according to you guys is that they're going to do a six three. And I'd say that probably is the actual Wall Street average of what they think the split will be today. But again, it's more than just this. This is only one part of this. The actual more tradable part, I think is beyond the spike and what they actually say thereafter. Goldman Sachs, HSBC, Morgan Stanley, they think there's going to be no change today at the Bank of England, Deutsche, Barclays, Nat West, they're all predicting a cut. And one of the things you're probably going to hear is that if they cut, it's probably going to be a cut in rates, but a fairly more hawkish commentary to just signal that look, they're not in ultra accommodative mode yet. They're just looking to just tackle the recent situations unfolding economically. But if they do hold, it's probably going to be accompanied by a relatively dovish monetary policy report. Again, this is the management of market expectations. Okay, moving off that, a quick run through of a couple of earnings reports. I did tweet all of these from the Amplify trading account this morning. So I'm not going to go through all the details. Just going to give you a very brief overview. Basically, Tesla shares are pretty much parabolic at the moment. I got a chart sent to me from Will last night when their earnings came out. And I thought I was looking at Bitcoin, but it was Tesla. And Tesla, Tesla basically up another six, seven percent last night, you know, their share price has just gone crazy in the recent few, few weeks. I think everyone needs to just do a little Cisco shakedown Elon style and apparently shares just rock it higher. But yeah, Tesla really strong last night, Microsoft equally. So Microsoft shares are up about 4%. Again, exceeding earlier all time high called the revenue topping estimates by more than one billion. Again, winning some really big flagship cloud contracts. The demand on that side continues to be incredibly impressive. Facebook though, the opposite Facebook shares actually fell about 7%. Yeah, social media network user gains stagnating in the US and Canada revenues increase, but actually it was in looking back in previous courses quite slow pace, still a lot of pushback on general regulation, regulatory environment to their privacy concerns and so on. Other earnings in Europe, it's also been equally busy. A quick run through BT down about 5%. Shell down about 3.5% at the open, adjusted their profit and miss. They've also slowed down their buybacks. Deutsche Bank down to LVMH negative, Unilever maybe a slight initial sweet spot at the open up about a percent. So earning season definitely in full swing at the moment. Calendar wise, obviously the focus for us is really the Bank of England. Before that, you do have the German state CPIs. A couple of those have already come out this morning. And to give you a flavor, Saxony minus 0.6%. It's on the month-to-month reading, but the Saxony year-on-year 1.8 up in the previous 1.4. So keep an eye out for those. That's a decent lift month-on-year-on-year basis. That might provide a little bit of support for the euro. Let's wait and see. You'll get the others, Brandenburg, Baden-Württemberg, Bavaria, Hess and the rest coming out all the way through up until 9am. They've got the German unemployment change in rate, worth keeping an eye on. It doesn't tend to be that market moving, but certainly as per usual rules apply, anything on the outlying stretch of the range needs to be monitored. You can see that the range for the unemployment change is very wide, minus 29k to plus 15k expectations for plus five. As I said, Bank of England really is where it's at for today, is the main event. And then also this afternoon, you've got the advanced reading of GDP coming out of the US, which is going to be particularly interesting. Remember, this is the advanced reading. So this is the one that's important that will be potentially market moving. Expectations are, if we look at US GDP, that basically it prints the same as it has done 2.1%. However, you've got a range of one to three. And as far as GDP data is concerned, that's a fairly wide range of estimates. So definitely 130, that's going to be quite key. That's alongside the regular weekly jobless data, but really that gets brushed aside as people will lock in on the GDP number. That's what I'm going to talk about actually. I'm going to hand you over to Sam. I think that's enough from me and let's hear what Sam has to say from a technical viewpoint. Okay, thanks very much, guys. And I'll see you for the Bank of England later. Hi, guys. Looking forward to the Bank of England later. The pound this morning actually just coming under a bit of pressure, whether you want to get involved and trade this before the announcement or not. I'm not too sure, but let's have a quick look. We set that long term chart. The bottom part of that trend line just coming under. A bit of pressure now where we close the day will be key. And the chart will tell you really what happened and almost be able to tell you the vote as well. If we have a look over at this trend, you can see, depending where you take it now, we're almost bringing in this one just using the bottom of the 8th of November and the 27th just testing that. I know this one we had on before was really well-respected. We couldn't close below it. And again, didn't close below there yesterday, but certainly testing that and 130 now on all those lows. What an area of support it has been. Does it go today or not? Time will tell. A break of that. Just be aware of all of these potential lows where price could get to if we were to have a way more dovish result on that. If it holds, let's put it onto the 60 minute now. And you can see here quite a key resistance point just over the last couple of sessions around 130, 46, certainly a level to have marked up there. We'll go through all of this of course ahead of the announcement. There's a couple more key resistance points, 130, 60 as well that I'd be wanting to have marked up prior to that release. And then we've got a trend line coming down from the top as well. Price really getting squeezed. And you can see here already just a little reaction to that trend and the low that we had from the week. And even below there, obviously you've got all of this area of support. So the pound, I'm not too interested in training it now. It's a wait and see and prepare as much as possible for that. The euro finishing yesterday, well, I would say the fact that we finished above the low that we had back on Thursday, Tuesday is quite key. However, we are still in this bit of a trend channel if you like over the last few days. So I don't think it's enough just yet to get too excited about wanting to buy. We're just coming to the top end of the morning range. You can see here the high that we had during the Asian session overnight. We're just testing that now. The lows are in place as well. It's a small range, only 12 ticks or so, but quite a key level 10, 1048 was also the high yesterday morning as well. Above there, just of course, be aware of that FMC spike of the initial dovish reaction there to come in. But yeah, I think the euro because of just putting this back onto the weekly chart because of just the key levels in play, those trend lines, the dollar index as well as Alex was saying last night is a bit overextended. We could be in time just getting ready for a bit of a pullback here. You can see those trend lines here on the daily again can't close below those. It wouldn't be too much of a surprise to see a bit of a retracement. Not saying I'm going to be looking to necessarily buy the euro, but preferring, I think, to sell this market a bit higher up would be what I'd be looking to go for. Having a look over US equities this morning is coming under a bit of pressure. We just bring in that chart. You can see here on the daily back down towards those lows and well, I mean, what a resistance that was there on the gap close just shows how important these levels are. You can say whatever you want about the fundamentals above that, you get a decent rally higher. The fact that it holds, well, why on earth would you want to be looking to buy if it can't do that late last night? We were doing the FMC saying because it's so slow and such a non-event do not get long unless you get that 15-minute close above. You can see it absolutely did not do that. Of course, that is a nice reversal to come in and whether you took that on or not. If you did, fantastic. You're living the dream right now, but let's have a quick look at some levels below where we're trading. Really, it's a bit of a zone. 32 is the bottom and then you've got to see the lows that we're trading at now for around 32.45 and a bit. A bit of the trend line did break yesterday, so if we were to have any retracement into the morning, afternoon, just keep a watch on any point that could come back there. If we have a look longer term, you've got the level market that could come in around 32.18, bit of a horizontal support point, and then the spike below of the year 31.81 as well you'd look to have on there. Of course, these trend lines you can see if I just bring that in already chopped through, but that longer term one. This is where there's arguments to buy little dips here and there. I don't think it's a market where you can necessarily hold for a longer period of time just because of that uncertainty, but I absolutely would love to see an opportunity to get anywhere in and near 31.00. Of course, that's still a long way away, so maybe 31.50 or 31.81. Again, that low of the year could be the opportunity perhaps. Having a look over gold dropping it down 60 minutes, the market doesn't want to go down at the moment, really resilient to any push lower. We've got quite a lot of resistance up where we're trading though, so perhaps just have that patience even if that R1 goes. Just be aware that you do have the high from the 27th evening, and of course then the 28th as well just on that. So a bit of a resistance zone if you like before looking to get in just because R1 breaks. I wouldn't be looking to buy it like that, especially given the morning. The way it's traded recently though, you can see it breaks the high, comes back and retests that. So a nice wave higher at the moment. Trend lines from the lows you can see here would also match up potentially with the previous high from yesterday around 1579.8. That would be something I'd be half interested in there as well. Oil back down to the low just printed there a new low for the day and having a little bounce on the low from the 27th low from the year, looking at this on that daily. We were saying is that the low in unless it was to get above, I think it was one of the resistance levels or previous lows, I wouldn't be too confident about calling that. But I think if we can get down towards here, this was marked that area around 51, I do quite look like the idea of as long as the price action suggests it that this could be the bottom of such a key level. However, if you're you know, bearish a break below there could really run down and see a big change in this market. But yeah, I like that area to find some support to have a look 60 minutes, just have a quick bring in of the pivots to give us a bit more of a sense of direction over the last couple of days. You can see we double topped yesterday. We filled that gap as well and early trading couldn't really confirm a breaker above any of those levels and like the US Securities, we drifted lower. So keep a watch on those lows as well 15 minute trade chart now to keep a you know close watch on yesterday's low, which is actually some nice resistance. You've got quite a lot of levels that we just stalled before breaking through. And of course on the way up, they could offer levels of resistance on that retest as well. Probably by the time we do, if we do, I should say push higher be nice trend lines in play that could guide price action. But for me 51, 51 dollars and then a few cents either side. For me looks like a nice area we could find some sort of support today likely to be dominated by the pound from midday. But it will also be interesting to see interesting to see what the stocks do down 200 this morning. But has much changed overnight? I would be surprised to see a bit of a bounce. The Dax here hit that low, the coronavirus low, if you like, and has had a decent enough bounce from there. If that is to break, we got these lows from beginning of the year as well to start to point in. Hope everyone has a good morning. We'll catch you all just before midday to go through the bank of England. I'm looking forward to it set up nicely to be one with good opportunity.