 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network Four divisional titles are still up for grabs as we enter week number 18 in the NFL We're gonna break down our outlook for those various divisions least in those competitive ones and take a look at the futures markets We get set week 18s a big movement in the NFC based on what we saw in a week 17 We'll talk to Ryan Williams for today get his read on that future market talk about the the ASC in the NFC south And then I'll dive into what my number say about week 18 over at Fandall sportsbook This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and Fandall research. My name is Jim Sonnis I am a managing editor of digital media for Fandall research joined here as I am every Tuesday by Ryan Williams Check him out on Twitter at Ryan Alexander underscore W Ryan. Happy New Year to you. How are you doing today? Happy New Year Jim. Happy 2024 Covering the spread of the new year. So very excited to get after it with you We're still talking about the 2023 season So we got a fun week 18 on tap. It's been a been a minute I feel like since we've had a situation like this where there's so much Uncertainty heading into a week 18. That's usually or you know, we're still new to the week 18 Just right playing out in it of itself. But yeah, I still I just feel like, you know, usually we're talking about You know, who's gonna be sitting and you know, what's what's gonna be happening? What kind of chaos are we gonna see on week 18? And there's so much to for a lot of teams to be playing for On Saturday and Sunday as well have games on both days yet again. So I you know I I'm excited to see how this plays out I am as well. And I think that the fun thing about this is that it's a lot of fun teams that are still Potentially fighting for the playoffs. I love watching he CJ Stradma Texans, you know That game should be a thrill on Saturday night. We've got the bills versus dolphins to cap things off So it should be a fun one for sure We'll dive in break down and read on the NFC south or the ASC south as well And then talk about the NFC and how the general picture looks right there given Philadelphia's loss and Dallas's win in week 17 But first a reminder to make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast back to a more regular Schedule now with the holidays in our rearview mirror back with you Tuesday through Friday for this week And then Monday through Friday for next week as well with the course some prime time breakdowns via Tom Vecchio and Prime time Tom to get you ready for this week's key games to get those as they are posted Make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast You can also find the regular shows on a fan dual TV plus and fan duals YouTube page as well Now Ryan Let's begin things off by talking about the NFC because there was a massive shake-up this past week The Dallas Cowboys now in the driver's seat to win the NFC ease Which gives them potentially the two-seat if they can lock up a win against the commanders on Sunday and as a result they are now down to plus 380 to win the NFC the 49ers still the prohibitive favorites minus 120 equals plus 550 the Lions plus 850 when you look at the NFC market right now at where things stand given we saw this past weekend any Value stand out to you with where those teams currently sit Yeah, I Mean, you know the value is probably was San Fran at minus 120 If we're be if we're being honest that I am interested To learn this week about the Christian McCaffrey injury, you know They really tried their best on the broadcast of Let of last week's game to kind of downplay What that meant, you know, it's oh he was cramping. Oh, no, it was a hamstring. Oh, it's a cap strain And we all know, you know, what that means now I will say, you know, this is kind of like a system and that don't get me wrong like Christian McCaffrey I don't think they have a chance of winning it all You know, let's not forget like at one point, you know, they had a situation where like Eli Mitchell was Running this thing with Trace sermon and you know, other guys there and it's like the system, right? Like, you know Brock Purdy's shown enough with IUke and Samuel and Kettle like the steam is still pretty scary even without him I think that's what made them leaps and bounds, you know the favorite here You know Dallas can handle business and and you know win the division. I think that would get them the second seed Which would which would be interesting, you know, I think that there's you know a lot that's been talked about with Dallas here You know can deck do it or are they, you know, are they Super Bowl capable with McCarthy? We just had the ring of our Ring of honor this, you know past weekend with Jimmy Johnson and just throwing back to the 90s And like that's been the whole narrative is like can this team get back to the promised land? And so I think with the way the defense is playing and if you can get some home games out of it I think that that definitely is is good for Dallas But they've shown the propensity to kind of blow it in multiple spots So they have to go out and prove it and you know, I think this offense is really there's still a little suspect You know outside of CD lamb who carried this team into, you know the position that they're in, you know I Brandon Cooks has stepped up so I'll give them his flowers, but you know outside of those two guys like Tony Pollard hasn't been able to get going like, you know, it's it's kind of tough So then we look at Philly Philly's plus five fifties it'd be the NFC championship winner And we know this is a proven team who's been able to go on the road and you know Shock the world before and it's like is it really a shock to see the, you know defending Super Bowl? You know team Representative of the NFC I should say be there yet again. And so at 550 The way that they could win the division It's a long shot because Dallas is 13 and a half point favorites on the road against the commanders But you know if they handle business against the Giants, then, you know, we'll see if Dallas can go on the road I think Washington, you know, they have a lot of issues there, but they do play divisional opponents pretty pretty well They've had some tough losses against Dallas in the past historically over the past couple seasons But you know one and two Washington's one and two against this team And so I you know, I think at 550 if we if we're talking about this early in the year And you told me at any point that we'd get the Eagles at 550 I'd be willing to take them there You know, I think the Lions are a fun team I it's hard to you know, trust them to be the NFC championship Just with the what the defense is really what's suspect to me. I mean defense just gives up so much And you know, definitely when you're talking about playoffs that usually when you want to see your defense really coming into the fold I love their front seven I love how they pressure the quarterback But the secondary is just so suspect that it makes it hard for me to choose them here I actually think they got a pretty big boost this past weekend the Lions did because with the Cowboys winning That means that even the Lions wind up being the third the three seed their second round game would still be indoors Like they would face Dallas on the road But it would be in a dome and we know that Jared golf at every offense This is true every offense But like they're much better when they're playing indoors their path is indoor game in the first round Indoor game in the second round and then on the road likely Again, San Francisco in the NSU championship game for plus a 50. That's not bad CJ Gardner Johnson did not play this past week But I would guess he'd be active for the first round of the playoffs product Probably this week is like why bother with him. I mean maybe to knock off the rust But like they could get him back and I think if I were forced to take someone right now The Lions would be where I turn a plus 850 just because I think the path for them is pretty good Also, Ryan my pro dome agenda got a big boost this week because we did get the Cowboys up there I want every game played in the dome and now if we get the Cowboys at home, too Not does that benefit my son Jared golf but also does benefit the pro dome agenda So I think they were sneakily one of the bigger winners of what happened this past weekend That's a fair point Jim. I think if you're if you're on that track, then, you know, let's look at I Guess we'll talk about well, no Let's talk about it now because if we're if we're gonna say that Lions plus a 50 like right is a good value You're a decent value from those odds. Let's just look at them from Super Bowl like Super Bowl plus 22 to 1 and it's at a legion stadium indoors like Jared golf is a Super Bowl quarterback. He's been to the Super Bowl People making that trade with Matthew, you know format with Matthew Stafford involved because he can can do it And it was all the talk this year about like well, you know The Lions are trying to do what they do, but they're still gonna go after it with with Jared golf And so that that is interesting I think it for for that reason alone and that's been one of the biggest things for me with Jared golf this whole year is like Get this guy indoors Especially if he's not playing at home because you know, he's just not not great And outdoors and that's been the case with the Rams And so if we're gonna if I'm looking at it plus a 50 and this team is making it like let's just go ahead and take them 22 to 1 To win the Super Bowl if that's the case. I'm in you talked me into it Ryan. We're all aboard the Lions Restore the roar 22 to 1 to win the Super Bowl this year Let's talk about some divisions that are still up for grabs specifically the AFC and the NFC South Let's begin things with the AFC South right now the Jags are minus 225 now If you're betting on either the Colts or Texans to win this division You are saying that that team wins a game on Saturday night and then the Jags lose to the Texans on Or to the Titans on a Sunday So it's basically a two-game parlay here Ryan any interest for you in betting the Colts or Texans to win the NFC South Given you also need the Titans to win against the Jags on Sunday. Yeah, I think there's there's some merit there I'm interested to see what's going on with the Tennessee quarterback situation That would make me feel a little bit more comfortable in taking one of these but you know the Texans at plus 460 is the play I mean garnered men's shoe has been fun and the Colts have been handling business so I mean, you know, they're one point favorites I believe is what the what the line is most recently against Houston in at home, but You know the funding I think that's gonna be a shoot at the game I think we're gonna see a lot of points and I think you know CJ Stroud is is that guy, you know coming back off of an entry You know last week To be able to handle business You know, I love how the defense is playing. I think they're very opportunistic and to take some Can take some chances against garnered men's shoe And this team and the Colts defense has been a little bit suspect to me as of late So I think they have some merit the thing about the Titans is you know This is be this will be the first time and you know some some time for Vrable to not be you know playing getting this team ready for the playoffs And so I'm interested to see because this is a this is a team that I you know I usually will take every every time that I get when they're at home and As a doc because of how Mike Vrable coaches this team and so they are out of it, but I think he still You know has respect for the game enough to say that you know if we can you know take it to you Know one of our division rivals like let's go ahead and do that and handle business They do have some you know offensive pieces that I think they still want to get looked at You know Ryan Tannehill if he ends up starting this game He's you know, is he trying to play for a new spot because he's likely not in Tennessee next year So a lot of a lot of narratives there that speak to me and in Jacksonville is just you know They're struggling. I mean Trevor Lawrence missed his first game and we saw what that meant to this team and CJ Bethard being the backup quarterback there I it's just hard to kind of kind of trust them right now and I've been saying that you know for quite some time So why would I stray away from that now? I love the Texans. We've talked about them multiple times this year I've pulled for CJ. It is interesting to me that in the in the rookie market rookie of the year market that is His number has dropped significantly He's only 850 minus 850 to win the award and he had been like 20 to 1 like 2 weeks ago So I think that's like a very interesting Scenario that's kind of rear to Ted But you know if they're if they're in the playoffs today when this game against the Colts like it's it's a sure-gone conclusion That this guy's won in the award. I think it is now But I just can't believe that it dropped so significantly that that is a little bit worrisome Right and Nikua having rookie records in his sights. He may have broken it on Sunday I can't recall for sure on that one, but rookie receiving yardage record and things like that like I understand why That has shifted but like CG Stroud like he said if he gets into the playoffs gonna be hard to deny him that award I had the Texans favored in this game 51.2 percent to win against the Colts no shocker I've been on the Texans basically every game that strat has been healthy so far this year So not a huge surprise there and I do agree with you the Titans be pretty frisky in this game The spread was four and a half yesterday I think it went to five and a half once the news came out that Lawrence should be good to go The the wording was intends to play this weekend. That doesn't mean he will be able to So like I think there is a value in the Titans Titans money line is plus 190 I think that I'd rather take a swing at the Titans or the Texans or Colts if I thought that the tech Titans win That game take a look at the divisional market and bet The the Colts or Texans depending who you think he wins rather than taking the Titans money line there because you'll get better You know more favorable odds there and again, I think that the Texans should be very slight favorites in that game So plus 460 for the Texans. I think is also pretty intriguing. So I do agree with you there, right as well Let's go with the NSE south right now the Bucs are minus 245 Saints are plus 370 situation there is if the Bucs win Against the Panthers on a Sunday. They win this division So effectively it's the same thing where if you're betting on the Saints or Falcons You're betting against the Buccaneers as they take on the Panthers So any interest for you at the Saints or Falcons in that one or is it a stay away because? It's the Panthers on the opposing side. Yeah for me. It's I don't know how anybody can trust the Falcons at this point I mean this team is like so far gone If there's any, you know kind if there's any consolation to that You know shout out to listen to my hometown team the Chicago Bears like it's it's been a season You know five five Home wins in a role, you know five and two in their last seven games I believe so, you know, they're doing what they can to handle business, but I digress I mean that's there's just I just don't believe in Atlanta and I would I would hate to see Atlanta in the playoffs Like I really would so that just as me As as a little bit bias and where this division is. I mean, I've been banging the drum for Tampa Bay So so much this year. I feel like that's the one, you know That's the one thing that the covering the spread the community can like get in its add-on is if we you know Yes, that in the Texas. Yeah, they've been listening to the show like we've just kind of been beating the drum I mean it shaped up so perfectly for Tampa Bay to be in a scenario like this that I Do have faith in them to be able to handle business to against Carolina I think there's a lot kind of writing on this for for Tampa Bay one being with Baker Mayfield because you know We'll talk about the the market in a little bit, but I do think there's some merit for him being comeback player of the year The Saints have just kind of you know, they they put themselves in this position I mean they kind of had you know, the driver seat for for a little bit of time this season and Reeling and Derek are you know was out for a little bit of time and you know, they're playing the Falcons at home I I think they should be able to handle business there. It's just I believe Tampa Bay will as well, too So I think the interesting merit then becomes like, you know, what is the do what what's New Orleans Saints? What are the New Orleans Saints outlook like going forward after week 18 because we're gonna have a matchup between You know to NFC North teams and the Bears and and Packers and if the Bears play spoiler You know at Green Bay, this will be the second year in the row By the way that Green Bay has an opportunity to get into the playoffs and a divisional opponent can beat them on week 18 to in there at Lambo to knock them out So we might still see the Saints, you know in the playoffs without winning the division But I think the division is Tampa Bay's to lose for sure How wild would it be to have two NFC South teams make it given how much we've just dumped on them the entire year It would be it would it would be rightfully so like the way that this season has gone Jim It it just you know, it has Reason to play out that way. Yeah, it's been a weird year for sure. So, you know, you can't rule it out It's only a three-point spread in Lambo for that Packers Bears game, too So it's not totally out of the question. We could see both the Buccaneers and Saints make it I agree with you that both those teams of Bucks and Saints should be able to take care of business And I hope they do so by six points and four points respectively as a little sneak preview of what I'm talking about Later on in the show any other futures you want to lock in before we get to week 18 Ryan Yeah, I thought it was, you know, like I said It is is very interesting to me, you know, I think Flacco is the second favorite behind the Mara Hamlin now which I I guess Has merit to it, but he hasn't played the full season like I Get the narrative that Joe Flacco kind of comes in and you know, but it's not to win the division It's just to get them into the playoffs and it's not like they're on some type of playoff drought Like they've made it in two out of Stefanski's four seasons there So to for him to be plus 105 that close to the Mara Hamlin I mean what you know, we we didn't talk about this market a lot this year But I feel like in the beginning, you know, it kind of was like when we're going through the spectrum Who's the Mara Hamlin's to kind of not even lose but it just felt like it was his award Like if he goes out there and just even plays, you know, a couple snaps like what happened last year But now, you know, you're seeing the scenario here The Baker may feel narrative like him winning the division like taking over for Tom Brady. It's 16 to 1 here We're just looking at the market there like if I lose out on 16 to 1 I'm gonna be okay with that I don't know how you can really take Joe Flacco being that close to the Mara Hamlin and and feel okay I think Much money has to be coming on him for him to be plus 105 but that would not That would not sit well for me to give Joe Flacco the award over a guy like Baker may feel that he's able to win The division and has played the full season and that just you know It's not like Joe Flacco is winning the division or it's not like they wrapped up the number one seed or anything like that That you know, he did what he had to do with this team to come in and get them to a playoffs And I think it's a great story, but not necessarily for this market in When we're looking at futures here, I got I got it. I just got to go back to them I just got to see what what it's like for Kansas City to go on the road here. They're For Super Bowl odds, I'm not sure. I think they were they're in the 400s when we're talking about conferences, but plus yeah plus a 50 for Super Bowl It's still Patrick Mahomes like yeah, you know, it's still Andy Reid I know what the narrative has been all year The offense looks broken and this is somebody who was hammering this team in DFS this past weekend Because the spot just shaped up so well but you know the two things that I think are Different with this Kansas City team that haven't been there in the past necessarily is the defense is playing really well like they've they've played really well to kind of mask a lot of what the offensive woes have been and Isaiah Pacheco coming into the fold here has been absolutely outstanding like this, you know They haven't had a running back situation Like this, you know, Jerick McKinnon shout out to him like he did what he needed to do when you know His his his number was called but Pacheco is is a is a force and if this if this offense You know where she rice is coming into his own and you know, McCall Hardman's coming back He's been there before with this team Travis Kelsey, you know if they just come together And you know can rectify some of these things like it's still the freaking chiefs And so, you know, we're getting these numbers on them right now Like let's let's take some shots on on the defending champs because you know Would it would it shock us to kind of see them in that type of situation? I don't think so You know that being that close to Buffalo. I think the money on Buffalo was last week I think that's when you wanted to kind of get in on it because it felt nice But yeah, that's that's kind of my thing right now is is with the chiefs Just looking at them in that regard and then you have some you know Interesting, you know kind of scenarios here in the playoff market as well to just with the Texans They're minus 105 to make the playoffs. The Saints are plus 250 to make the playoffs Which I think is you know, definitely a shot enough to take, you know, close to three to one on them Seattle's in that kind of same vein to I believe Plus 270. Yeah. So, you know, there's a little bit that needs to break their way as well, too But a lot of these teams, you know, just got a win. So I think I think we'll take some chances there. Yeah, and I Think that's going back to the chiefs Isaiah Pacheco shout out to him for winning me a dynasty championship because he is the best running back of all time One thing keep in mind is the bills are not guaranteed to make the playoffs If the Steelers win on Saturday and the bills lose on Sunday night, they're not in and that opens up great that Takes away a lot of the threat in that conference So keep that in mind with the chiefs keep that in mind with the Ravens honestly and other teams as well Because if we do see that the bills miss it That's going to open up a big void where there is a bit less talent in the AFC Once we get to the playoffs, so I think that's one thing to keep in mind when it comes to the chiefs as well That is Ryan Williams make sure you check him out on Twitter at Ryan Alexander underscore w I believe we have a Monday night game for the first round of playoffs. So looking forward to that We'll back with you again next Tuesday Ryan to check in on Things we get set for the first round of playoffs enjoy The rest of your week and we'll talk to you once again soon. Yes, sir. I can't wait man. Have a good one We'll talk to you guys later. Alrighty same to you. That is again, Ryan Williams check him out on Twitter at Ryan Alexander underscore w and we'll get it back here on the show once again in the very Near future we're going to dive on in to week 18 and dig in to where my numbers show value Across this week in just one second but first the NFL regular season is wrapping up But there is still time to get in on the action with fan dual America's number one sportsbook right now new customers get $150 in bonus bets guaranteed when you place a $5 bet That's 150 bucks in bonus bets win or lose the app is so easy to use and there are so many different ways to bet like live Same-game parlays bets in the new explore tab make a Parlay in the parlay hub the best way to find popular parlays and more so visit fan dual and make your first bet a layup Fan dual official partner of the NFL must be 21 plus in present and select states Fan dual is offering online sports wagering in Kansas under an agreement With Kansas Star Casino LLC first online real money wager only $10 first deposit acquired Bonus issued as novel travel bonus bets that expire seven days after receipt Restrictions apply see terms that sportsbook fan dual comm gambling problem call 1 800 gambler What was the fan dual comm slash RG in Colorado, Iowa, Michigan? 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Hope is here for the gambling helpline ma.org or call 100 3 2 7 50 50 for 24 7 support in massachusetts or call 1 8 7 70 hoping y or text hoping y in new york Let's dig in now to nfl week number 18 outline where my models see value Across this week over a fan dual sportsbook and I do show value in the total for the two biggest games of the week That is the Texans and the Colts and also the bills and the dolphins Let's start things off with that Sunday night game between the Texans and the Colts I like the under in this game 47 and a half is minus 1 15 right now over at fan dual sportsbook and the Colts operated a very quick pace Which is why we're gonna see high total so that James pretty often This one I think is a bit too high though You can understand why it is up here given the Texans got a pretty poor secondary Derek Stingley very opportunistic Which is good, but overall not the best secondary and CJ strats healthy So you're gonna get pushed back on both sides of this game But Indianapolis's offense has seemed to slow down a bit of late They posted below average marks and early down passing efficiency in nine of the past 12 games. So With garden ensure quarterback, they've been feisty for sure But they're not the most efficient team on early down through the air as we're Houston They are more efficient now that Stroud is back But they do still tend to be a bit more run heavy than you'd like and that not only drains clock But also keeps them from being as efficient as they potentially could be Were they to lean more into the passing game? So couple factors of play here in these offense a bit suspect Texans more run heavy than you would like as a Result I've got this number closer to 44 than 47 And if you take the under a 47 and a half that allows you to get a win on a key number of 47 So I understand why this number is where it is But I think it's a bit too high given the way the Texans operate given the fact that the Colts has slowed down a bit offensively I think there's enough here to justify taking a look at the under 47 and a half again is minus 115 right now over at Fandall's sportsbook. I got I got the Texans at 51.2% to win this game their money line minus 106. So no value there Unfortunately, so I can't go back to my Texans one more time in the regular season Hopefully you can bet them in the playoffs and I'll talk about them again in the show later on as mentioned I do the bets as well for the bills and the dolphins on a Sunday night and that is also an under So we are leaning pretty heavily on the unders in these games for the two fun games for this week under for the bills Dolphins of 49 and a half is minus 110 another fun game I just don't think I'd expect quite this many points The total does get a boost to via all the injuries for the Miami defense Xavier and Howard questionable right now. You've got Bradley Chubb out. Jalen Phillips already out as well So they've lost a lot of key guys on their defense But they've also got injuries on offense Jalen waddle Potentially on the wrong side of questionable Maybe does play with this being effectively a must-win game to a tongue of I low as left shoulder is now banged up as well Now the dolphins to Mike McDaniels credit have done an awesome job overcoming injuries this entire year and last year as well But it does add up when you have that many key injuries to important players on offense as for the bills They become very run heavy recently They're early down first half pass rate under Joe Brady as OC is fifty three point six percent That is down from sixty point four percent under Ken Dorsey. That's not a bad thing They've been very effective running both with Josh Allen and James Cook. So Why not lean into it? They have it's been a very effective approach for them but Running does drain the clock which is good for it under even if the team is efficient and it is optimal for the offense So not criticizing just saying and it is better for an under than for an over It is possibly could see another high-scoring game here like we saw when these two teams met earlier on this year The bill is winning a blowout there But these two offenses are very different now the dolphins are banged up offensively and the bills are a bit more run heavy Than they were back then I've got this total personally a forty five point nine That gives us quite a bit of space to go towards the under here and feel pretty good about that So again under forty nine and a half is minus one ten at Fandall sports book There was a fifty and a half available yesterday So as always check to see what you can get but even if the best you can get is forty nine and a half I do think there is value in the under at minus one ten So, you know bit of a buzzkill to bet the under on two very fun games for this week but we're getting wins on key numbers of forty seven for the Texans and the Colts and it went on a key number forty nine for the bills and dolphins So I do think that even though it's not as fun to bet in under I do think that is the right way to tackle both of these games on Saturday and Sunday night as Mention with Ryan I do show some value in both the NSC South teams that need wins this week You're like both there are three actually, but both of the Teams that are favored for this week will say I like the Bucks minus five and a half and the Saints Minus three and a half in their respective games buccaneers taken on the Panthers and the Panthers two weeks ago week 16 showed a spark offensively against the Packers and That gave me some hope they may be okay. They're figuring things out. They've been a bit more run heavy Maybe that's allowing them to unlock some potential in this offense Last week though kind of erased all those games And I think that that allows us to look at the broader picture for for the Panthers and the broader picture says we can lay the points of Tampa Bay in this game to these offense is You know far too dependent on early down or on late down magic in order to be a sustainable offense Talked about this Ed this past week and that's why Ed was on the Saints plus two and a half in that game So like we can nitpick the Bucks and say They've got some pretty key flaws offensively, but I have a model that penalized the Bucks pretty heavily for being inefficient On our way downs and leaning a late down magic in that model The one that should view them pretty poorly as a result. They're still favored by six point three in this game against the Panthers So even when we do ding them quite a bit for being dependent on late down magic They're still more heavily favored than this spread The other model does view things more broadly and that one has a favor by around nine points JC Horn unable to go last week for the Panthers pregame warm-ups had a toe injury So he could not play and it allowed CJ Bedford to put up respectable efficiency numbers and route to a 26 Even in the games since Horn returned the Panthers defense has still been just fine Other teams been able to move the ball effectively against Panthers on early downs both on the ground and through the air The concern here in laying the five and a half would be that the Bucks Lean into their rushing attack, which is the worst in football for the second consecutive year and that could keep them from covering a somewhat big number on the road it does help at least that Doing that being run heavy is less of a blunder against this defense than most given how bad they've been against the Russians here better recently But still not great by any means So I buy into what the model is saying for this game The model says to lay the points and the model doesn't account for the fact that the Bucks have more motivation the Panthers to win this game I don't think it should frankly. That's why it doesn't but it doesn't hurt at all So I'm finally in the five and a half with the Bucks in the spot That is minus 110 at Fandall sportsbook as mentioned also showing value in the Saints minus three and a half as they take on the Atlanta Falcons for this game It's kind of buying into what Ryan said to where the Falcons I they were a team I bet on this past week did not go well there and There's kind of a team that has bad vibes right now and vibes don't matter I don't play in the model But the model does show value three and a half and again it doesn't hurt to have bad vibes They can still make the playoffs so both sides of this game are motivated to win. So again motivation not a factor here It's just that I think the Saints are a decently better team The Saints have had their ups and downs throughout this year, but when you look at the team as a whole They're actually 11th in my power rankings. I think that's kind of high honestly given that Got offensive lemon yelling at Derek Carr or the defense has been banged up and not as good recently But they're respectable in both offense and defense and 11th is kind of in that like firm middle of the NFL So it's not like super super high But Atlanta ranks 23rd despite the fact their defense has been better than what I expected it going into this year The Saints should have good success if they air it out on early downs They ranked seventh in early down schedule adjusted passing efficiency while Lana 28th defensively That's been Atlanta's big bugaboo this year is when teams have air to get aired it out against them on early downs The Falcons have excelled against the rush and on late down So if the Saints are willing to go to the air, they should be able to move the ball pretty effectively They wouldn't get a downgrade here. Valve and Camara can't go got a sprained ankle But it does sound like there is a pretty realistic chance He is able to go when you combine my two models together. I've got the Saints here by 5.3 here So I'm okay laying the three and a half in one of the bigger games of this week one of the bigger games of this year I think it is okay to lay the three and a half with the Saints in this matchup with the Falcons So again, my four bets this week are the Saints minus three and a half minus one ten the Buccaneers minus five and a half and minus one ten And then the under for the two prime time games under 49 and a half for the Bills and Dolphins and under 47 and a half and minus 115 for the Texans and Colts Before I finish up for this week got to go back through recommendations here from last week on the show in a very good week for the show This past week in large part due to Dr. Ed Fang find his work on Twitter at the power rank and check him out at the power rank Com four and one week for Ed overall across college football and the NFL So anything's off with last night's game in the college football playoffs semi-finals Ed had JJ and McCarthy were 15 and a half rushing yards at minus 114 McCarthy had a long Design run on their final drive to take to force overtime that got him to 25 rushing yards and he stayed there So McCarthy over 15 and a half rushing yards minus 114 was a winner for Ed And then the late game Ed had Washington plus four and a half at minus 115 Washington won that game outright. There was some Uncertainty run whether they'd win at the that final drive, but hey, they were gonna cover four and a half regardless So good call by a bear the model said Washington two-point dogs for Ed so good gap between the model and the market and it did come through Where they win there for Washington a plus four and a half final one for Ed and college football was Jalen McMillan over 78 and a half receiving yards for Washington McMillan did have a touchdown but Overall wasn't a huge factor in that game his snap rate They rotate a lot at receiver and you saw that kind of manifest in that game last night but McMillan Went under uh, that was minus 114 where Ed wanted it to go But did get the touchdown was a contributor just couldn't quite get the win there So two and one Fred on the college football side of things and then the NFL clean sweep Fred He had the Lions plus five and a half against the Cowboys obviously couldn't get the money line Uh, but didn't need it because that had the plus five and a half on the Lions against the Cowboys in that game On saturday night. So good call by Ed there and then finally as mentioned he had the Saints plus two and a half against the Buccaneers And the Saints and the first half really just rolled in that game kind of flashed some of the flaws in this Buccaneers team So good call by Ed across the board there four and one week for Ed Find Ed on twitter at the powering check him out at the powering.com at his back with us again tomorrow to break down The championship game between the michigan wolverines and the washington huskies That'll be up on the covering the spread podcast feed in the afternoon and fandal tv plus and the fandal youtube page as well And it'll preview nfl week 18 with us on thursday I had a three in one week in the nfl four this week. The one loss was on the falcons I had a layered bet between uh, their money line and their spread the money line was plus 136 The uh, the spread was plus three at minus 115 And the falcons money line did get movement in my favor throughout the week I think they closed around plus 126 if annual sports book Didn't matter they were the worst team in this game. They Could not come close to covering despite the fact they had a kind of fluky 75-year touchdown to tyler algae year The bears were the better team So, uh, did not deserve to win that bet and did not other three though with the packers money line of plus 110 Had that before the news that the vikings would start jaren hall over nick mullins Honestly didn't care. I didn't think it mattered too much what who they went with there So, um, the packers plus 110 easy win there I had the bills and paths over 40 to half and minus 110 this game finished with 48 total points I thought it might go over in the first half So, uh, it went over pretty early in the second half and I don't think there were any other points scored for the rest of the game so Didn't have to track it luckily But pretty easy win as far as time goes but a bit closer than I thought it might be basically the way the first half went but 48 total points at over 40 40 and a half at minus 110 and finally on the saturday night game I had the cowboys and lions under 53 and a half minus 110 easy win there 19 or 20 to 19 Final score in that game. So hopefully that sets the tone for this week Two is we're taking unders on the two prime time games once again texans colts and bill stolphins But overall really good week for the show probably our best week overall, uh, so far this year as far as the recommendations went Uh as ed went four and one and I went three and one Hopefully we can run it back and do it again in week 18 That is all that we have here for today on covering the spread once again a big thank you to ryan williams for joining us Back with us once again next tuesday find ryan on twitter at ryan alexander underscore wi I have on twitter at jim sonnis you can find me on threads at jim dot sonnis And you can find fandal research on twitter at fandal research tomorrow championship game preview between michigan And washington with dr. Ed fang nfl week a team preview coming up on thursday nfl props your way on Friday as well all right here in the covering the spread podcast feed Make sure you are subscribed wherever you get your podcast and if you like what you hear Leave us a five star rating on apple podcast or over on spotify We'll talk to you all once again tomorrow. This has been covering the spread right here on the fan duel podcast network