 Welcome to Access to Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, good morning everybody. Welcome to another edition of theaccesotrader.com. We can update show. Hope everybody is doing well. Hope everybody's having a beautiful weekend, relaxing weekend, great time of year next week. We got Halloween a little bit, maybe excuse me, not nine days, not a little bit close, but so far, so far on deck. So let's talk about the tape. So the majority of the week had a couple of themes, right? Number one, earning season kicked off. It kicked off by the banks. Banks did fairly well, right? You had notable names like Bank of America had a nice quarter. Goldman Sachs had a nice quarter as well. Okay, Tuesday came along. We had technology earnings started kicking off. Netflix, so we'll get the individual pivots in a second. Netflix had a really good quarter. They guided higher. They beat the top line, bottom line. Hell must be freezing over somewhere because IBM beat their quarter as well. Okay, not all good news on the earnings front. You had Tesla came in a little bit light on their numbers. Elon did give a pretty good guide of an expectation of 50% growth in the next couple of years. Basically saying, I'm going to sell every single car we have. Nobody's doubted that. I don't think so at all. And Snapchat got completely torn apart on Friday. So now that we're in kind of full blown earnings move, what's going to happen next? We don't care what happened before. We don't care what we think is going to happen next. If you look at predominantly the market action, and if you just look at the chart, and all I had to tell you was below this light blue line, bad above this light blue line, good. That's the most basic part of technical analysis is understanding which ways the wind is going to blow. And we all understand that the market does have pretty good moves. Even though we're in a bear cycle, it definitely has pretty good moves. And the question is, what has changed? And that's an answer that price action could only dictate what happens next. And if you look at the chart, you'll turn around and have a really, really very vague opinion of what do you think is going to happen next. A lot of new traders are going to turn around and say, well, that was definitely the bottom. That CPI reversal that we had the previous Thursday, that was definitely the bottom. Definitely, definitely, definitely. The bear case is going to turn around and say, well, what has changed? We're still underneath the 50 day moving average. We're underneath this oil supply. And you can see here, we're kind of putting in lower highs all across the board. And they're right as well. And that's the most important part. It's not trying to figure out what's going to happen at the closing price of next Friday. It's trying to take the research that you have. If this is your first time watching this broadcast, it's all about taking the research from the night before and seeing if it confirms. If your thesis confirms the next day. Beyond that, we don't have a clue. If you think for a second, or if anybody thinks for a second, they know what's going to happen two days from now. We might not be here two days from now. So you're guessing. Anybody who's betting on option expiration for next April, they're guessing. It's all about guessing. So instead of guessing and wasting your time hoping that something comes into play, this is where technical analysis comes into play that you don't have to guess and it's all about levels. And if you trade both sides of the market, if you traded both sides of the market, especially in the last four months when we've kind of got below the 50 day moving average again, you know there's really good opportunities. And this is why this bear market is so unique. It's giving both sides of the market really good meat on the bones on most days. So even if you are a permable and you just don't trade on the short side when there is opportunity, really clear opportunity in the short side, you're being kind of made whole because there's so many days now throughout this period. Look how many intervals you've had. They have multiple days of operation bull market action. So everybody's getting a taste of this market. But if you are a new trader and you want to trade it, especially in the active intraday basis, I really encourage you to try to really understand both sides of the market because again, it's all fun and games until you are on the wrong side of bias and you don't have a clue how to get out. And that's a very, very important thing. The earlier you set your foundation, the better you will be. So let's talk about this tape. We'll talk about the key levels. The Fed spoke all day, every day. Sometimes people ask me, hey, Dan, this is a Fed speaking tape. Fed speak every day. There's some sort of Fed governor or somebody or this one or that one, even the janitor has an opinion. So assume the Fed is speaking every single day. After an event, before an event, leading up to an event, talk, talk, talk, talk. They're not saying anything different, but they're talking, talking, talking. And if you look at Friday's action, we had this really big gap down pre-market, really, really big gap down. The Q's, and we were talking about this 268 level for the whole week, the Q's were down to like 265 and change pre-market. And this is where the Fed actually said something that benefited the bulls. The Fed came out pre-market and said, hey, you know, we're not going to keep this aggressive 75-point basis points, right? We're not going to do the 100. Maybe we'll scale back a little bit. Let me see how we feel, right? Let's see how the economy is. Maybe we'll scale back to 50. Maybe we'll scale back to 25. And if you saw the pre-market action from Friday, we were all the way down here, 265. We gap down like four and a half dollars on the Q's, and the market fell in love with that headline. They liked it. They liked it enough. They took that and compounded that with the pretty good earnings that we saw in the beginning of the week with financials, some really good earnings that we saw. And again, the bar was set very, very low for technology such as a Netflix and an IBM. But again, this is one of those scenarios that we talk about all the time when bad news or any type of bad news is being embraced. That's a good thing. Again, it doesn't mean that this is a bottom. By no means, anybody in their right mind is so arrogant enough to call this a bottom. It's just an area that made it low that we bounced up five days ago. So is it going to be a bottom? Who knows, to be determined. The only way that we'll know that the CPI reversal was a bottom is when we get above the 50-day moving average. And then we could point and say, hey, remember that day? That was the bottom. Again, other than that, nobody cares. If you're in this business about being right and getting followers and getting clicks and all that, you're doing it wrong. Everybody sees you're doing it wrong. You're cheating yourself out of a business that you have to be so freaking dominant in your attention to detail that you can't afford to be right or wrong. You have to afford to be responsible. And that's exactly what we try to do every single day, collect the data and trade off that data. And don't be afraid to be wrong. I'll give you an example. We came into Friday's session. I was 100% cell bias. Every single pivot we had was to the downside. Literally every single one, one, two, three, four, five, six, seven. Once the market started rallying and they took down, and by the way, all these stocks were below, way below, right way below their pivots, two, three, four dollars below the pivots. And we're like, wow, this is going to be a really hard day now because everything's so far below their pivots. And as everything else in the market, things change very, very quickly. Stock started Friday reclaiming those levels very, very quickly. And then we started the rally. And this is kind of what we talk about, trade both sides of the market. So next thing we went from, hey, nothing is obviously going to get confirmed. Let's start looking to the upside. This is obviously 270 on Netflix, not 370. That would have been a hell of a pivot. But Netflix, IBM is waking up. And the most important part is the market brushed off bad news. They had every opportunity this week to kind of roll over. You had that news from Apple this week that they were cutting either, for some reason, I forget the headline, was they cutting forecasts for the 14, whatever it was, but the point is the market embraced that, embraced it, and they didn't sell off. And every single day that passed, they couldn't sell off. That news from the Fed kind of pre-market really catapulted the market in a really, really strong way. And now we're getting to very, very important levels. And we'll get to that in a second. All across the board, you have all the indexes putting up 5% gains for the week, which is super bullish. This week, in all intents and purposes, was kind of successful. Overall, the earnings season has kicked off pretty successful. Obviously, Tesla not so great, but it recovered some. Snapchat got torn apart, whatever. But now going into this week, we have 25% of the S&P 500 reporting. And this is the week for a heavyweight, right? I'm talking about heavyweight technology that's obviously going to set the tone. Let's talk about that really, really quickly. Monday, you got a little bit of a light session. Nobody really that significant. But Tuesday starts it up. You got Microsoft. You got Google. You got General Electric. You got Visa. Chipotle. General Motors. Coke. Spotify. JetBlue. TripleM. UPS. You kind of get the point. A lot of names, very significant names. Wednesday, you got Meta. You got Boeing. You got Ford. You got TDOC, right? You got Bristol Myers. NOW. But Thursday is definitely the day. Thursday is the Super Bowl of important tech leaders, right? You got Amazon. You got Apple. You got Intel. You got Shopify. You got Pinterest. Obviously not as significant as the other ones. Gilead, McDonald's, so forth, Caterpillar, so forth and so forth. So it's going to be a significant week, right? And obviously that is the immediate catalyst. Can the market continue to shake off bad news, right? Can the market continue to shake bad news and start propelling higher? And again, day by day, one-traded time. So this is the most important areas for the market coming up this week. For us to have any significant legs, right? Especially in technology. You see this whole channel here, right? This whole channel here that's trying to get above. The queue is going to need to build above this 277 level, right? If the queues can build above the October, October 18 highs, then if you believe in the theory supply, supply, demand of the man, that's kind of the whole point of this fear, 60 theory. If we can get above this 277 level, then look at much room we have. The next measure potential move is 284. So it is a very, very important week. The last thing we want to see is all the things that the bulls accomplish and make sure the bull, the bears would not get control and kind of lose all that on a test of this 277 only to get rejected, right? It's a very, very important area of the market. So that's going to be super important this week. The spies, really great move, okay? Incredibly, incredibly really good move here. Here's the next area that's super important going into next week. You got 375.50. If the spies can get above this 375 level, and it's 375.50, you could tell here we closed 74.80, excuse me, 74.20s. But if we can get above 75.50s, then you have a nice move here, measure potential to 79.81. Again, this doesn't mean we're completely out of the woods, and this is the bottom, no guys. That's the whole point I'm trying to say. Day by day, take it day by day, trade by trade. Don't overthink. Don't start putting the cart in front of the horse while talking about, well, now we need a build above 387. 387, as far as I know, and I know, I promise you guys no math, carry the three. As far as I understand, don't you need to get above 375 and a half before we're talking about 387, right? You just don't jump steps. Baby steps, one by one by one, right? You're born, you learn to, you learn to crawl, you learn to sit up, you learn to stand, you learn to walk, and then you need to run. The only way the market's running is we reclaim the 50-day moving average, and that's not anywhere there, okay? Not yet, okay? So hopefully baby steps to bulls can start kind of marching slowly into that direction. When you look at the IWM, kind of the same pictures here. Last move, it got stuffed into supply. Some important levels we obviously need to get above the 173.50 level, right? If you can get above the 173.50 level on the IWM, then you've got to move into the recent highs of 177. Any close above 177 for the IWM, then you have at least the 50-day moving average in sight. But baby steps, again, don't run before you can learn how to crawl, and that's a very important level. And if you look at a lot of charts this week, and again it took me, I could have put 400 charts in the watch list today, because realistically if we continue, everything's going to go. It's not picking, you know, it's not trying to pick the diamond in the rough, trying to squeeze one out of the rock. If they go, they all go, right? So if you look at the charts, they all mirror the cues. So for example, if Apple starts taking down this whole level, it has room to 150, 152. If for example, Nvidia starts taking down this whole level here, this whole range here. It has room to 132, 133. There's a lot of really good-looking charts. Look at charts like ILMN, for example. Look at this thing. It's coming out of a tight, tight range. It's not usually a name that I want to really focus on. But boy, oh boy, look at this channel. This is all airspace ahead of earnings. So something like this is very important. You got names like Netflix that, you know, they were talking, they were coming for the 300s for next week. Just a phenomenal move again. We'll get to the pivots in a second. Just an absolute phenomenal movie. It looks like you have 295 and 310 coming up ahead. So now the question is, can the Bulls play with their, you know, play with the love that they found, the resurgence of energy, the resurgence of commitment to levels? Can the Bulls continue what they started going through this week to be determined? But the most important part is its baby steps. At least we got something to work on. If you're on the bullish case, if you're on the bearish case, you better understand those levels. Because if they start taking down those levels, you know, you can make all the excuses in the world. You're going to get squeezed. Again, it's all about levels, not about opinions. I love Tesla long. I love Tesla short, but I'm not going to trade Tesla long if it's screaming to me to the downside and vice versa. So it's very, very important to kind of, again, see the market for what it is and not for what you want. So, you know, the pivots again, like we talked about, right? You know, there's a really good pivot. You know, on the downside on Thursdays, it broke 207, it went down to 202. This was the pivot on Monday. 202 now needs to build. Came nowhere near. Amazon came down to the 1320 pre-market before the rally. Came nowhere near. NVIDIA, same thing. Apple, same thing. The only one that confirmed, I took this for a small scalp, 5640 for builds below can flush. Only went down to like 5580s, 5570s. And then it woke up with everything else. Microsoft didn't get close. So once everything started waking up, you know, we turned around and we said, listen, let's not be creative here. Let's look at the two stocks that had good earnings, right? It had some sort of cattle. So you can see here, nothing came close. And that was Netflix, 27 needs to build. So not only did Netflix take out the 270, and here was the 60-minute view of this 270 level, right? You see this whole area here? This whole range here? Not only it took the 270, it started taking down this 279.30. Why was 279.30 important? Because, well, that's the earnings high. So guys, 279.30, huge area. So not only did, you know, not only did the Netflix take out that 370, it took out the earnings highs. You can see it took out the earnings highs and just went out of its mind into the 390, into the 290, 291 area. Same thing with IBM, right? Same thing with IBM. IBM 129 needs to build. These are the two best charts. Everything else was in limbo. Everything else was kind of in the middle of the ranges that a lot of times were held this week. But here was IBM. Same thing. You had the earnings high being put in. You could see here on the 60-minute view. You had the earnings highs being put in, right? Here's the earnings highs right here. 129, right? Put in the earnings highs, 129.30, and then there it goes. The stock went to like 131 and change. I'm sorry, 129 went to 131 and change. So nice move on IBM. Phenomenal move on Netflix. And now we are seeing if everything else could get pulled up. Fantastic rally into the close on Monday. And now the question is, can the bulls do it again? It's like somebody winning the five-cent slot machine once for 500 bucks. You're not then deemed as a professional gambler. Do it again, right? You did it. You hit it twice. Do it again. That's the same thing for trading, right? Same thing goes for the macro picture. Bulls, you had a good week. You shook off a lot of news. Do it again. And guess what? Then do it again. And if you want to really go strong, do it again. Guys, have a great weekend. Stay blessed, everybody. Stay healthy. And with God's help, I'll see you all on Monday. Take care.