 I would like to call on our first speaker, Professor Antoine Flauot, who is the director of the Institute of Global Health at the University of Geneva. Antoine? Yes, thank you, Mr Chairman. Thank you, Michel. And also thanks to the organizer and Thierry de Montréal for inviting me for this session in this very promising conference. If I can ask for my slides, please, I will introduce you a few updates and questions regarding this COVID-19 crisis today. So I am waiting for my slides because I cannot push them myself. Thank you very much. So the first slide shows a recent map we are providing on our dashboard with an everyday update, where we forecast for 209 countries and in some countries like in Switzerland or in Canada or in the USA, we provide some regional figures. What we can see is that the North Hemisphere today is facing a huge surge in cases in most part of the North Temporate Zone Hemisphere, except in Asia, where the surge is also going on, but in Japan, for instance, in South Korea, not in China. But it is very well controlled and at a safety level, I would say, much below the incidents we are perceiving in Europe or in the States or in Canada. Canada is not yet controlling its wave, the USA neither. When Europe is for the moment trying to control and to take over control on its epidemic second wave. My next slide shows Africa. We have some troubles in Africa because it's a great zone, if I can say that, because we don't have any sufficient tests to analyze the trends in many, many countries, but we can say that there are three profiles. The northern part of Africa seems to have a very similar trend as in Europe, where it has seen a winter, I would say, cold season wave recently, like in Morocco or in Libya or in Tunisia. In southern Africa, it's very strange, of course, as I said, we don't have a lot of data in many parts of Africa, of southern Africa, but in the countries where we have them, like in Senegal, in Cote d'Ivoire, in Ghana, in Togo, in Nigeria, in Ethiopia, in Kenya and other countries, it seems to report very little activity. So it seems that there is not such a dynamic wave which has been observed in this country. It's not clear to know why. Of course, it's short investing, as I said, but really, if some burden had appeared, it would have been detected. It has not. So is it the whole of the climate? I'm not sure. Of course, there is no winter season, but we see respiratory viruses, such as influenza, in all parts of inter-tropical zones, and in Latin America or in Singapore, for instance, there were some activities of the coronavirus, so it's not very convincing. The whole of demography could be more convincing because the median age is much younger in southern Africa than in Europe where it is 40, 45 years. So true, but there are still some elderly people in southern Africa, and we do not see them, fortunately, in hospitals, or I would say very, very few of them. Consimmunity has been said, but has never been documented for the moment. That would be the immunity provided by other viruses and which could block the propagation, the spreading of this virus, not very convincing for the moment. And about the protective genetic characteristic of the fact that black people would be protected against the coronavirus is not convincing also because in America it has been seen that black people were deeply hated by the virus. So there is no clear explanation, and it's really a pending question that we should explore more. And the third profile is about South Africa, which behaved like Australia or Chile or Argentina with their winter wave between June and September, which seems to be controlled, but if I can show, there is some signal of increase again, which is worrying in South Africa and also in Brazil and which may be a cause of concern in the coming weeks. As you can see, we do not predict long term. We only provide daily prediction for the 209 countries in the world and territories, but only seven day predictions. We refrain ourselves for long term predictions. You may remember this CDC, US CDC forecast for Ebola in 2015 when they predicted one million plus cases and fortunately that was only for Liberia, but fortunately in all of the world there were less than 30,000 cases, which is much too much, of course, but which is not the same order of magnitude. So let's avoid long term and even midterm predictions. I don't really know what will happen in next February for this pandemic. And I don't think we can for the moment. The basic reproductive rate is important to understand well because it's not a constant, it's a variable. When we say it's two to three, it's an average. You have to realize that maybe almost 70% of the cases will not contaminate anyone and maybe 20% will contaminate only one person. They will not contribute at all in the pandemic. We have to focus on those who contaminate the 10% of them who contaminate more than one person. They only contribute to the pandemic. And that has a consequence is that we have two tracing approaches in the world, one the western style one, the forward tracing is the research of contacts of the reported cases. It's not very efficient because for 90% of these reported cases, they will not contaminate anyone. So the backward tracing is a lesson we can learn from Japan and from other democratic Asian countries, the research, the contact of the one who has contaminated you, who has contaminated the reported case because of this over dispersion, because that 90% of cases do not contaminate anyone or only one person. They do not take time to trace their contact. They only take time to trace the contact of those who have already contaminated me. And if there is someone who has contaminated one person, the probability is that he has contaminated more than one person. It's, of course, much higher. One of the main root of transmission for SARS-CoV-2 is still a debate and even a vivid debate. There are three major root. Of course, there are some other potential roots, but the three major roots are large droplets, ballistic root, when you cough, when you sneeze, even when sometimes you speak, you may expel some large droplets, more than 100 micrometers, and it may just hit someone, the nostril, the eyes, the mouth of someone and contaminate him. It's probably not very frequent except maybe in, I would say, home care facilities or for taking care of children and sometimes also, of course, in hospital settings. Small droplets are the droplets you expel when you breath, when you speak 10 times more, when you sing or when you yell, which is 50 times more than breathing. Small droplets are aerosols of, are aerosolized and in these aerosolized small droplets because they can float in the air for a couple of hours in poorly ventilated closed settings, these aerosols may contain some coronavirus. And these droplets, when they fall down on surfaces, they contaminated for mites, which may root of transmission. It's not clear that various attributable parts of each root and it depends on the settings outdoors, the aerosols do not play any roles indoors, probably they play a leading role. The intensive hand washing programs have been assessed through randomized clinical trials and they show a risk reduction of 16%, which is substantial, but not major. So probably the major root should be droplets, small droplets. I would say there's not one COVID-19 disease. There is three or maybe four according to these colors. I like these Danish series of cases in the first wave. They show that below 50, you do not have a high risk of dying, of having severe complications of COVID-19. You are almost as safe as for many viral respiratory common cold. Between 50 and 70, it becomes a very severe disease. And if you have comorbidities and 50% of the population at this age has some comorbidities like hypertension, diabetes or overweight, you have a risk of dying, which is very close to the one for SARS in 2003, almost 10%. It's a very, very dangerous disease. And above 70, it becomes a very dangerous disease like Ebola in the west of Africa. There's four available breaks to slow the dynamic of this pandemic, the spreading of this pandemic. The preventive measures, hand washing, wear mask, physical distance, ventilation. These are the lockdown measures including homework, including of course the closure of schools, of universities, of non-essential business, of bars and restaurants, restrictions of mass gathering and all these limitations of movement. There are some more personalized lockdown measures, which is in fact the testing tracing, isolating process because you lockdown those who are found infected or at risk. The third force is the seasonal force and environment. The seasonal force, we have seen it in the south hemisphere during the winter time and we are now observing it in the cold seasons in northern hemisphere. The seasonal force is not a blockage. It's a break. It may happen that it's slow the process in summertime. In temporary zones. Environment, I will come back later on that. And the fourth one is immunity. Of course, the more the disease progress without any mutation, there is an acquired immunity. Probably in Paris, in London, Geneva today, we may have reached almost 20% of the population being immunized. It's not enough to block, but it's a break. It's slow down the process. And vaccines and treatments, of course, will help a lot for that. The season and climate, what we have recently published is a work where we show in four different situations in tenories that was in canaries that was due to sand storms. So the dust particles, fine particles in the atmosphere were followed by outbreak of COVID. And in London, in Paris, in Tecino, in Switzerland, we have seen that due to weather, anti-cyclonic conditions, fine particles accumulate in the air atmosphere and were associated with a spike of an outbreak of COVID-19 very soon after. And we have seen that for the first wave and it has been reproduced also for the second wave. So the climate and seasonal conditions may play a role and also environment. I want to show you this slide. In fact, Ireland, as known as all other European countries, a second wave very recently. And the 21st of October, they decided to lock down again. And the 25th of October, excuse me, the 25th of October, four days after we saw cut in the exponential trend. It is quite exceptional to see in four days the effectiveness of a policy, a political intervention. In fact, we can say that they were a citizen participation to this policymaking. And in fact, you have the Google mobility data in the right side of the panel. And you can see not the red curve, which is the fact that during the summer times, the people in Ireland goes in parks and outside, outdoors. But the yellow or brown curves show the mobility to go to work and to go to use public transportation. And it decreased, of course, a lot in the first lockdown. But it decreased a couple of weeks before the official lockdown, second lockdown, this fall. So it is interesting to see that the self-lockdown methods use the people in Ireland to anticipate the political decision has been shown also in France recently. Regarding the treatments where we are not very far, we have only confirmed the efficacy of dexamethasone and old corticosteroids. We are on the verge to see some interesting results for monoclonal antibodies, those who have been administered to the President Trump when he had COVID. And we have some non-pharmaceutical treatments like prone positions, assisted ventilations, and oxygen. But all the others may be promising, and many of them are still in clinical trials under assessment. So we don't know for the moment if other products will contribute significantly to the treatment. But what we can say more optimistically is that the survival rates in hospitals are dramatically improved in time. In the six previous months, we have improved by 30, maybe 50 percent, the survival rates just by dexamethasone and better care of using non-pharmaceutical treatment. Regarding the vaccines, we are of course, and you have noticed that much more advanced, and we have very promising results. We have not seen any complications for the moment, but the dossiers are under evaluation in agencies, and today the UK agency has approved the BioNTech Pfizer RNA vaccine. The Moderna is following soon, and AstraZeneca, which is a vector-borne vaccine, will probably follow also very, very soon. But maybe we'll be a bit delayed because of some difficulty in access of some data. But the two very promising vaccines, we will talk about them, BioNTech Pfizer and Moderna. There are many others, 150 in the development, 40 of them, 50 of them, under clinical trials. So probably we will talk today of other options which will come to the market soon. And my last slide, so we don't know exactly for how long the immunity will last. We can hope that it will last for a couple of weeks and months, but of course we don't have enough experience on that. And my last slide will be about the scenarios for the upcoming months waiting for the effect of the vaccine. First, we have to learn towards the safety zone in all countries before easing and lifting the lockdown measures. And after we will have to change and adjust our testing strategy towards a backward tracing strategy and prioritizing it, not maybe giving up with the other one. We will have also to improve isolation of contagious people in dedicated hotels or something like that, as did the Asian and Australian people. We have also to use better and more apps and the digital traces we have because it's a very useful partner for catching. And after we have to conduct cell prevalence studies to know exactly what is a quiet immunity, because if we have a low immunity in some areas of the territories, the risk of resurgence will be very high and it will be very difficult to ease the restriction. If we have moderate risk, we will have to take caution. And if we have high prevalence, maybe you're both 25 or 30 percent, that will represent a beneficial break and a low risk. And we probably can open bars and restaurants and other non-essential business with some caution, with keeping some preventive measures. So the winter time, the cold season in the North and the Middle East will be a dangerous period and we can try to have some values proposal according to the situation and particularly the immunological situation. So my last final slide is not a slide, it's more a kind of flyer to say how to avoid COVID-19, avoiding crowding indoors, low ventilated area, keeping distance even with aerosols, the close proximity of these factors, avoiding long duration in these rooms, the reason why we are not all with Keri de Wombrial in the same theater today, avoiding to be unmasked, avoiding to talk, to sing and to yell too long in this situation. Thank you for your attention. Thank you very much, Antoine. Thank you for this overview that sets the scene.