 Welcome traders to the Tick Mill weekly market outlook for week commencing the 29th of August with me Patrick Munley. In the US it's really all going to be about the August jobs report and the focus of the trading world's attention for this week. Despite the US having been in technical recession through the first half of the year, the economy has created 3.2 million jobs year to date with 528,000 of them coming in July alone. Markets don't expect anything like that for August, though given vacancies have started to fall off and business surveys have suggested more caution on the economic outlook. Nonetheless, a 250k print would still be very respectable and will certainly keep the Fed in hiking mode with the unemployment rate set to remain at 3.5% and wages continuing to push higher. Markets favor a 50 basis point hike on September 21st rather than a 75 basis point move. However, should the economy add substantially more jobs, say 350k plus and the wage number posts a second consecutive 0.5% month on month increase or higher, then it could swing the argument in favor of that 75 basis point move, especially after we have that hawkish toad from Powell at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday. The data of note will be the ISN Manufacturing Report and Construction Spending, while August Auto Sales numbers will give an early indication of consumer spending. Also, watch out for a number of Federal Reserve speakers obviously following up on Powell's comments on Friday. So from a technical perspective, Dollar Index is a decent outside reversal on Friday, so I'm looking for a follow-through early in the week and ultimately we're looking for a move up through 110 to test into the 110-30, 110-50 area. From here I'm going to be watching for bearish momentum divergence to be maintained, to actually watch for bearish reversal patterns to engage on the short side, looking for a corrective move back into test support down to 104.50s before setting a base for the next push higher. Moving to the Eurozone, and it's a big week for Eurozone data with the August inflation reading out on Wednesday and an employment due on Thursday. With the September ECB meeting coming up, the debate between hawks and doves has become more heated, again as government council members are returning from their holidays. These figures will be key inputs for the meeting, while some supply side factors are currently bringing relief as input costs fade, gas crisis continues to push prices for consumers up at a very fast pace. Expect another increase in the Eurozone inflation reading for August. The unemployment rate will give a sense of whether the labor market is responding to weaker economic circumstances. Moving to the charts here, Euro rejected from resistance at the 10090s. Now looking for follow-through earlier in the week, and we're actually looking for a test down now into the year the S3 into this 9760 area. From there, as long as we maintain bullish momentum divergence, we'll be watching for bearish reversal patterns to actually engage on the long side, initially looking for a move up to retest trend channel resistance cited just below the 101 level. If we get through there we look for an extension up to retest that resistance area at the 10360s. Moving to the UK and lighter data week for the UK, we're actually only looking at nationwide house prices to be released on Monday, looking for a 0.1% print there. Then we also get Tuesday, net consumer credit looking for a 1.8 billion print there versus 1.6 billion print in the prior month. That really is the only data or a note coming out in the UK next week. Obviously attention still on political developments with respect to the new Prime Minister, hotly tipped to be in his trust at this stage. From a technical perspective, Sterling put in an outside reversal on Friday, bearish patterns. I'm looking for an extension down through these prior lows at the 1.1720. I'm looking now for price to test into 1.15. From there, watch for bullish reversal patterns to potentially engage on the long side, initially targeting a move back up into test the projected channel resistance coming in at 1.2050. At this stage, only a loss of 1.14. The downside would suggest that we have further to go to the downside in the next area of interest will be the 1.10 level. In terms of the yen and Japanese data next week, again, a little light on the counter. We do get a new composite leading economic index on Monday, looking for a 100.6 print there. We will also get the jobless rate on Monday. 2.6% is the anticipated print there. Then on Tuesday, we get retail trade, looking for a negative 1.3% month over month with a year over year of 1.5. We then get consumer confidence on Wednesday, looking for a 30.2 print there. We'll see housing starts looking for negative 2.2 in terms of housing starts. Then we round out the week with capital spending on Thursday, looking for a 3.0 print there. It's from a technical perspective, Dolly Yen being a bullish reversal pattern on Friday. I'm looking as long as we maintain support now, at 1.3570. I'm looking for an extension up to test 1.40 on the upside. From there, be watching for bearish momentum divergence, bearish reversal patterns to engage on the short side, looking for a pullback into the 1.3390s. Rounding out the week down under, all with Australia on Tuesday, we get building approvals, looking for a 2.6 print there, month over month. Then heading into Wednesday, we get private sector credit, looking for an improvement there, up from 0.8 last time to 0.9%. We also get private sector credit, looking for a 9.1 print there. Then we round out the week on Thursday with private capital expenditure, looking for a negative 0.3 print there. From a technical perspective, the Aussie Dollar bearish outside reversal pattern. Looking now for a test of this potential pitchfork support here, 6840s. From there, be watching for bullish reversal patterns to engage on the long side, looking for a move up into the high volume node at 7180s. At this stage, any close back through the 6840s will be bearish development. We did get an inside bearish week in terms of the weekly candlestick set up there. Any follow through through those 6840s, I want to be engaged on the short side, obviously looking for a test of the equality objective versus the swing high at 7660s. We are targeting a test of 6640s. We'll just wrap things up by checking in to see where Bitcoin is over the weekend. We have traded below the trend channel support, testing the 20K level, actually printing below 20K over the weekend. We will see now, as long as we maintain resistance at the 21,800 to 22,000 level, we are looking for this test of the major equality objective down to 12,185. That concludes the weekly market outlook for a week, commencing the 29th of August. As always, trade us, plan the trade, trade the plan, and most importantly, manage your risk. Until next week, thanks very much.