 The following is a presentation of TFNN. The morning markets kickoff with your host, Tommy O'Brien. Good Friday morning everybody. I'm Tommy O'Brien, company live from TFNN. I think we're gonna have an interesting one today, folks. It's been an interesting week. It's been interesting two weeks, you could say. Since we got that CPI data, lower lows, lower highs, and today things accelerating into Friday trading, we got a little bit of pause in the acceleration yesterday, but it picked up in the final few minutes of the trading day. There's your 345 bar, and yeah, you go from 3805, we're now a solid 80, 80 points below where we were trading at, just at 345. Now the S&Ps right now, futures negative by 44 points, that's about 1.2% in the negative right now, but guess what? That doesn't incorporate that 15-minute sell-off, and we've just been chopping around at these price levels since about 645. We're gonna back things up on a daily to see the move, there is the CPI data move, I should say. Now, going into that data point, reasonable voices would say, folks, right? This is kind of what you were saying, as in even you go into the data point and CPI, you go into forward, and yes, we gave back a lot of S&P points on that day, but what I kept saying was, where did those 200 points come from that we gained from 3,900 to 4,100 coming into that CPI data point, okay? Yeah, they obviously weren't deserved, they obviously weren't priced correctly, considering everything going on, and realistically, that was just an anomaly, and it's been basically a one-way straight trip, folks, okay? That was a bear market rally. I don't know who was buying, accelerating into that CPI number, okay, or what was happening, but you traded from 3,900 up to 4,150, and now we are more than 400 points below. You're talking about more than 10% below where you were on that CPI number, and man, it's been a straight trip since we were trading at 43.27, you're talking about 600 points, folks, we're down about 15% in the indices in the last five weeks, whew, today's gonna be an interesting one. NASDAQ 100, we give it all back from where we were in June, basically, you're within about 400 points from where you were in the NASDAQ 100, we just traded down about 1,500 points from where you were on September 13th. Dow was down as much as 400 points this morning. We're climbing, well, within about 200 points of the recent lows in the Dow and the Russell right now, just above that level as well, trading at 17.05. Bitcoin, under 19,000 right now, you have crude. You wanna talk about some volatility, man, how about crude? Under $80, folks, $79.93, we put crude on a 15 minute. You talk about moves, man, from 86 bucks to 79.91 in a pretty quick move, to say the least, gold, trading lower today as well. We got some action in currencies for sure, folks. We're gonna jump over in a moment, the pound moving in a big way this morning. And notes and bonds, you talk about movement, man. Hoof, yesterday, when I got off the program, folks, we were trading right at 113, okay? I was even making the note, maybe we'll get a 112, friend, didn't quite get it. Got it just shortly after that. Well, guess what? We were just trading at the 111s. Now you've climbed back, okay, to 112.25, but we got yields higher across the board. I think one of the headlines I got pulled up right now is the two-year, pushing 4.2% right now, higher yields across the board, even as we save ourselves a bit in the last two hours this morning, and we jump over to the volatility index. I've been talking about this as well. If you got your spikes up, folks, I just talked, had a great conversation with our man Larry Pezzavento this morning. He's got some great programs coming up, folks, today, tomorrow, and Tuesday. He has bearish this market to put it lightly. Can't wait to hear what he's gonna have to say on his programs. One of the things I was talking about though, if you think fear is at a peak, folks, okay? Not even close, and that's just going back to some of the drop-offs that we've had this year. I'm talking about when you get peaks in the VIX of where we've sold off. I mean, look at where we were in June. The VIX was at 35. All the markets are almost back to the price level that we were at in June. Meanwhile, we still got the VIX sitting at 28, okay? People are not paying the type of premium where they're expecting the moves that are actually happening in this market right now. Pretty remarkable. All right, let's jump to some of those headlines, and we got a lot to kick things off. I mean, this one sums it up well, though. Global risk assets swept up in route on UK stimulus, okay? So let's jump over the UK biggest tax cut since 1972, as if their pound was not already in enough trouble, crashes the pound. It impacts, of course, bonds, package costing 161 billion aimed at stimulating the economy. This is the tough one going on here, man, right? You got economies all over the globe that are slowing down. You wanna stimulate them, but you got inflation raging. That's the problem, folks. Economists say measure will add to inflation into the debt. The new UK government delivered the most sweeping tax cuts since 1972, slashing levies on the rich households and companies in a bid to boost economic growth and a move that triggered a massive market sell-off of the currency and bonds gonna cost about 161 billion pounds over the next five years. That fan concerns about inflation already near a 40-year high, okay? Tax cuts are the largest since Edward Heath was prime minister, not familiar, myself. But yeah, let's pull up some currencies, man. First, we'll start off with the dollar index. How about a 112 handle for the dollar index, man? It just don't stop, folks, in this dollar index. You jump from there, we'll jump to the pound. Now, I had been talking about the pound, man, but boy, when you break out of a channel line, folks, all right, no to our man, Bud Rolfs, the man. Maybe you come back and you wait for this thing to test that channel line, okay? I had been talking about, and this is where, you go off the information you have, folks, while this was in the channel line, okay, I was respecting that channel line. You should have been too. When it breaks below that channel line, things change. That's what happens, all right? Things change, the pound, now breaking, dramatically lower in the face of the fundamental news we have going on with tax cuts, even potentially furthering inflationary tendencies over there. Now, if you're looking to go short the pound or you're looking for some type of a recoil, maybe you wait for a little bit of a bounce to get up to that channel line. Nonetheless, the pound man down to 110, we jump over to the Euro. Euro US dollar, yeah, so much for even close to parity. We got a 97 handle, folks, and if you just trade to the bottom part of that channel line, right? What are you talking about? 95 or so on that channel line? It's dicey action all over the place. Now, the yen was the one that had all the action yesterday with the Bank of Japan stepping in. We jump over to the yen today. Pretty tame action considering the action going on with the pound right now, right? That was your action in the yen yesterday, but be careful, man. When I was reading those articles yesterday, yes, the Bank of Japan is stepping in, okay? But there are bigger forces at work potentially in terms of if they can stem the tide of the moves going on. Now, this move's been pretty dramatic. In terms of hitting almost 146, you put that thing on a chart, man. You're talking about from 115 in March up to 145 right now, but that's just one bar of a pullback and we've already spiked a bit back near 143 right now in the dollar yen, but boy, you talk about it, man. Euro-US Dollar pushing 97 folks and you look at that channel line, okay? You don't have to be a superstar technician to see that channel and respect that channel and realize that there are lower prices potentially coming at us for the Euro-US Dollar as the pain does not stop just yet. And yeah, with that in mind, the dollar index basically inverse of that chart is we're pushing 112 right now, no reprieve in sight just yet. We jump back to that 10 year, well below where you were in June as we're at 112, 28 and that is a full point higher from where you were at 111, 25. We'll talk a little bit of yields when we get back. Stay tuned folks, I'll be right back. 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We got the S&Ps right now, negative by just 40, so a little bit off of the lows that we have early this morning. You're talking about a yield right now in the 10-year. How about 3.7%, man, the yield in the 10-year? And yeah, as I was talking about the two-year, top in 4.2% right now, if you have any cash, folks, all right, yields finally high enough that you better be putting it to use, because it's worth it, man. Even on a three-month basis, okay? You got 50 grand, you got 100 grand sitting around, and I don't say sitting around, right? Nobody has it just sitting around. If it's in cash, that is a great thing. But boy, you're now talking about a three-month treasury yield of three and a quarter percent, folks. Your money's back to you in 90 days. Remarkable to see those types of yield, let alone you go to the two-year. You're now back to 4.12. It was above 4.2. Yeah, it hit 4.266, a 15-year record, okay? That number on the two-year right now, the 10-year, as I said, pushing 4.7 and the 30-year at 3.62. Mortgage rates probably going up yet again. Where does this hit the real estate market? How does that one settle, man? I was taking a walk last night. There's a development going on near us. And I'm out in the middle of Florida, folks, near Lakeland and Bartow, Florida. A lot of land, a lot of cow land, farm land. Used to be beautiful cows in the development next to us. Now it's being built out with something like 1,400 or 1,500 homes, okay? So imagine, I'm watching this all get built out. I'm watching the roads get built out. I'm watching the infrastructure get built out from literally cow pasture to a small city with 1,500 homes. What is gonna happen to those homes, man? When you've got mortgage rates at 6.5 to 7% trying to pull people in, right? What is gonna happen? It's an interest. I don't have all the answers, folks, but I was finding myself now. It's such a large development going on, folks, that they actually have multiple, and I have to get exactly which companies are doing it. LaNar is one of the companies in there, okay? It's many companies, though. They actually form together to have multiple companies that are in their home builders, building homes as part of the development that it's so large. Maybe they're just diversifying some of the risk. Maybe just in case something like this happens and you've got a property with 1,500 houses that you're trying to sell in the markets, tanking in real estate. That's not tanking yet, man, but boy. You know, I know that they're always doing this, and those companies, it's a constant cycle, right? It's not like this was their ultimate build out that if they just got rid of these 1,500 homes, that would make their company, this is what they do. They do it every single year. They build out homes. They sell them. So when there is a downturn, inevitably, they are going to be stuck with some of that capital. Some of that inventory of homes is probably a better way to put it, right? But boy, a year ago, if they had finished this job, they probably would have sold those 1,500 homes like hotcakes, man. Right now, that sales team, they got to be getting their eyes dotted and their T's crossed because they got some hard work ahead of them, man, selling that many houses. Now, where, as somebody that could potentially be an investor, where would you be an investor? Not yet, man, that's the tough part to figure out, right? It's like there's really not that much damage done yet. I'm thinking about them trying to sell these 1,500 homes. That's going to take a year or two to really come to the realization that the market's not even there if it's not even there. And I don't know how the market's there if you're trying to sell houses for $300,000 or $400,000. Exactly, Duffy. What are we at right now? 6.5% mortgages, and that was a couple days ago. And meanwhile, every single day, it seems like I wake up and we got rates at new highs, right? It's a tough one, man. 1,500 houses, exactly. Selling them to, anyway, 5, 6, 7, 8% man that we may be pushing. That is a tall order, man. And if that's a tall order, how far do they have to bring down prices to accommodate buyers? They're going to have to pay that type of a mortgage rate. We're getting into some pretty lofty levels, folks, all right? We're not talking about just higher rates. We're talking about rates we haven't seen in decades. You've got to be aware of that, man. Larry Pesavento this morning, he was talking about that he's looking for a crash of some degree, man. I'll let him say the words because he said it was just kind of just speaking, the two of us, right? And said, yeah, you should be pricing in the probability, folks, that this market can pull back dramatically lower. Doesn't mean it's going to happen, OK? But you better believe there's a probability of it because what's going on right now is all we're back to is where we were in June. And in my opinion, things have gotten a lot worse. As in, if you told us in June that in September, right, we'd still be dealing with inflation numbers that we have, we'd still be dealing with an economy that's pretty healthy giving the Fed the ammunition they need to keep raising rates. We'd be dealing with a two year at a 15 year high, right? And we'd still be dealing with inflationary tendencies that are running so hot that they're actually going up versus going down. That's what we're dealing with right now. And we got the S&Ps within about 100 points. And the final kicker, why you better believe that there's the possibility, folks, it has been a straight run up forever, OK? This is not what a carnage on a chart looks like, OK? If you pulled this chart up and you showed it to somebody, let's say a child that has no idea of what the market looks like, right? Compare the pullbacks we've had in 2000 and in 2008 to what's on the chart right now. All that does is look like basically the pullback we had during COVID, which was pretty harsh. But we're talking about much higher levels. You've only pulled back more than 20%. Meanwhile, though, and I bring this one up a lot because this is kind of a great way to wrap your brain around the context of where we are and how things are not as bad as they may seem when we've dropped off 1,000 points, OK? Forget about 4,800, folks, OK? That number was not a reasonable representation of the market capitalization of the companies in the indices with everything going on. It's not right now. We might get over the CPI numbers to dealing with. We might get over the rampant inflation in the economy, OK? We might get over the Fed that's battling those numbers that the market is rightly so intimidated by, OK? But that number was not a fair representation of what we're dealing with right now at least, OK? The market got a little bit ahead of itself with way too much optimism over what would happen to inflation, and it was wrong, OK? Market can be wrong, but it corrects itself. So now it's said, OK, 3,700 is more a fair representation of everything going on. Folks, when President Trump got elected in 2016, I bring it up because you've got to remember the mentality of what you thought the market was like, what you thought life was like, what you thought the economy was like during that presidential election. And I think both sides would agree that things were pretty good. You had the S&P going from 665 to 2,200, OK? Now, Democrats said Trump inherited the great economy that was just on an upward trajectory. Republicans said he passed the tax cup, so keep went going up, right? But nonetheless, I think we can all agree that things are pretty good back in November of 2016 with the economy. And what happened? We were at 2,200, folks. We're still up 1,600 points over six years. I mean, I talk about this all the time because that is from November of 2016. I'm not cherry-picking some crazy statistics from the market low, OK? I'm not cherry-picking a time in history, OK? I'm talking about that over the last six years, not even, OK? We still got two months to go until six years. We have gone up 1,600 points about, it's almost 1,500 now, a 2,200 point index, which is a 72% return. So since November of 2016, the market is up 72%. That's more than 10% a year, folks, OK? That's not what carnage looks like. You have to realize that we've given back some irrational gains. All we've done is trade back to the beginning of last year, right? If you told anybody at the depths of COVID, and I'm just trying to reset everyone's mind a little bit because context is important, OK? We're not sitting at 3,700 where we've been consolidating for seven or eight years, and there might be some real carnage where it takes it all back. We're sitting at 3,700, which is up well off, where we started 2020 after going through a pandemic. We'll be right back for the open, folks. Good time of booming inflation. We are purchasing powers eroded. There's no better place to protect your harder and money than in gold. Vista Gold's flagship asset is the Monk Todd Gold Project in the Northern Territory of Australia. This is Australia's largest undeveloped gold project. We are talking a world-class gold project in a tier one mining district. This is a large-scale, low-cost project with significant existing infrastructure in a politically safe and friendly mining jurisdiction. Vista Gold just completed the Monk Todd Feasibility Study, which resulted in a 7 million-ounce gold reserve in a 16-year mine life. 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TFNN airs live financial content streamed live on TFNN.com and TFNN's YouTube channel with Tiger TV, live every market day from 8.30 a.m. to 4.00 p.m. Eastern. For free, each host is an experienced trader and gives their take on the market by taking calls and questions live from around the world. From the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds, Tiger TV has eight different shows with expert hosts to help you make the right moves with your money. Watch online at TFNN.com or on TFNN's YouTube channel and become the investor you were born to be, TFNN. Educating investors. This segment is brought to you by Think or Swim. For more information, just click the Think or Swim banner on the front page of TFNN.com. Welcome back, folks. We've got markets open and you do have the S&Ps bouncing a bit coming into that opening bell, but man, there is no reprieve in sight just yet, folks. We're negative by 1.1% in the S&Ps. You're negative by 1% in the Nasdaq 100 right now. You're negative by 1% in the Dow and you're negative by 1.6% in the Russell 2000. We jump over to crude, continuing lower. We almost got a 78 handle. We're trading at 79, 37 in crude. Gold contract, negative $21 and you were negative $30 at one point in gold. We jump around to some of the currencies as the equity markets open. You get the dollar index still above 112 right now. The pound getting a lot of press this morning as they have a big tax cut going through the pound down to 110. We're gonna see pound parity, man. We were just at 113 yesterday and you're at 110 just that quick. The Euro, you wanna take a trip over to Europe, folks. You could listen, you can scale in, okay? And many times what's going on right now, even if when I'm talking about fixed income, I'm not calling the highs on interest rates. I'm just saying they've reached a level that they are meaningful to a certain degree that they have not been in many years past. We're gonna jump to our next article which is Cash is King, okay? So you want some powder dry here? And again, I'm teasing Larry, man. Basil's up next at 10 o'clock which is just because I had a phone call just for conversation with Larry. We obviously know he's a bright guy, man. I can't wait to hear what he has to say because, you know, he's just saying you don't have to be a bear. You don't have to sell everything. You don't have to sell all the fear, okay? But boy, you could be having some great buying opportunities at lower prices and the opportunity cost you're risking there by having some cash in play, not that outlandish. And especially not that outlandish, folks. When you can get some pretty good interest rates on the shortest of short term basis right now, even on the treasury, you're talking about three months, okay, over what? Four per, no, over 3%, three and a quarter is the three month, right? But with the interest rates where they're at, there're gonna be some great deals out there from money markets, whether it's just straight up money market account at your bank or where those rates go because we are approaching some lofty levels. Now I bring that up and I did talk about, you know, whether it's if you have cash sitting around and we've mentioned it before, folks, but the deadline's coming up for the I-Bonds for the US Treasury. So you can buy $10,000 versus electric electronic I-Bonds each calendar year, okay? The 9.62% that they're paying out for these folks is good through October of 2022. So you have to get these by next month. But the cool part is, is that the interest rate will reset, I think at the beginning of November, but that's only for new purchases or for how they get compounded, okay? So if you buy these on October 31st, that are thereabouts, okay? I don't know the exact deadline. Maybe you wanna buy them at least a day before the deadline if it's through October, but I think that's what they say. You can buy them at that rate through October, okay? You get that six months, four, six months regardless of when you buy them. Now, the cool part about inflation persisting higher is that these are gonna have some pretty high interest rates for some time, folks, okay? They're gonna reset again. Now you have to own them for a year, I believe, okay? And if you hold them for less than five years, see if they say it in here, right? There is a penalty where you give back, I believe, one quarter of the inflation rate. But folks, one quarter of the inflation rate when you get to 9.62%, you cut it by four is what? 2.4% only, you're giving back. So even if you sell these right after the year and you gotta give back a quarter of that, you're still making 7% plus percent on that number when it's tied up for basically a year. And we don't know when inflation's gonna tame. So if it runs hot, these just keep running hot. Now you can buy 10,000 electronic a year, okay? So you could buy them right now and then you could buy another 10,000 January 1st, locking it at the next rate. You'd have 20,000 there. What is cool, what I hadn't realized as well, folks, is that you are also able to buy 5,000 in paper bonds if you use your federal income tax refund. Not a lot of people knew that out there, I think. Okay, so keep that in mind next year if things are still persisting. You can actually acquire 15,000 of them in a calendar year. You can buy 10,000 in electronic I bonds at Treasury Direct. And then if you get a refund, you can take up to 5,000 in paper bonds using your federal income tax refund. Pretty cool with the numbers we're talking about right now. I think that number's gonna reset in November, but guess what? Inflation has not come down like we thought it has. So that number is not gonna come down like we thought it has. And you're at 9.62%. You got about a month left to do it. And yeah, and you can tailor that in a family as in if you're a family with a spouse, I think you can both buy 10,000. If you have kids, you're able to facilitate it in that way. So there are ways that you can load up to more than 10,000 legally under the buying guidelines of the I bonds, but I bring it up because inflation is persisting, man. And the next one's probably gonna be a decent number as well when they reset those inflation numbers in terms of driving what they're paying for interest on I bonds. Okay, I talked about that we might jump over to Cash is King and that's what Bank of America is saying. Investor pessimism hits 2008 era high. Very pessimistic out there, right? Cash sees weekly inflows, stocks bonds have outflows, sentiment unquestionably worst since global financial crisis. How about $30.3 billion? So cash, that's straight cash folks, going into cash. Now the good thing about that is people have cash to buy when it's time to buy. Okay, the tough part about that is if they just took that money out probably gonna let things sort out a little while, right? Because what's the risk? The risk is you miss the buying opportunity. I don't see this in market accelerator any higher just yet, folks. You can make that case if we get some soft CPI data or we get some turning ties there. That's crude under 80 bucks gonna help, okay? So much for $5 gas, that's not happening, man. Did not think we would see crude under 80 bucks but that could be indicative of some economy woes going across the globe, man, for slowdowns in particular and what we're not even talking about which is a part of this conversation especially for crude is how does the China's zero policy for COVID change at all? Or how does that move forward? Or what does that look like in the years to come? Because I think we're all aware now that this is here to stay for good and China's in big trouble, man. They have tried to clamp things down over and over thinking they could probably eradicate it to some degree. That looks like it's not possible. They don't have the vaccines that we have in terms of the effectiveness and they just shut down cities with 20 plus million people in it. As many people as in the whole state of Florida folks they shut down cities when there's 100 cases of COVID or 15 cases of COVID. Now, going back to these numbers. So you had equity outflows, 7.8 billion. Bond funds, 6.9 billion, 400 million left gold, right? Everything is just getting sold. This is what happens, man. Losses in government bonds, the highest since 1920. Boy, people in retirement funds, if they're getting slammed on this fixed income part they're getting hurt, man, in a big way and it is a bummer. Cash, commodities and volatility continuing to outperform bonds and stocks. Bank of America's custom bull and bear indicated returning the maximum level of bearishness. Yeah, and we're right back to that June level almost now. S&Ps are still about 100 points away but I think the Dow's only within 200 I pulled it up. Yeah, this market's just giving it up again right on the open, man. The Dow, let's see where we are. We just hit 29,708. Yeah, within 100 points of that low back in June. We jumped to the S&Ps. You're talking about a low of 36,39 and you're talking about the Nasdaq 100 within about 300 points of that low. Let's see how some of the bigger stocks out there. Let's jump around the fang stocks as we come into this break right now. Amazon off 1.9%. Excuse me, Apple off 1.4%, 1.4%. Google off a percent. Gonna be a lot of green on the board obviously today. Stay tuned folks. Interesting Friday to say the least, we've got some more action to cover we'll be right back in three minutes. 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Welcome back, folks, so much for that bounce on the open right now. There's your chart on a 15-minute basis, man. We trade higher at nine o'clock. You get a little bit of a pop in the market opens and gives it back dicey area in terms of chopping around basically the lows we've been at since about 6.45 in the morning. You talk about Europe, you talk about the pound, Europe's stock's big negative action right now. How about the stock 600 down 2.8% right now? In big numbers, you get the DAX down 1.6% FTSE off 1.8% CACAROL off 2.1%. Big numbers, to say the least, UK government announcing a raft of tax cuts. And yeah, you get the pound down 1.8% against the dollar today. Bank of England also hiked rates by 50 basis points yesterday. That's the seventh consecutive increase. So something about the Europe was at the 32nd. Let me see if we can pull this up. Where are we? I got too many headlines to talk about, folks. I think it was the 32nd week. Was it in this article that I was looking at? All right, I'll find it. No, I'll find it. It was something like the 32nd straight week of outflows out of Europe equities. Maybe, I'll have to find that article. They're in tough shape, to say the least. Where was I looking? I wanted one more final wrap up of, here we go. This was the article I was talking about, Cash is King. They're talking about, folks, corporate earnings, the forecast, even just corporate earnings, okay? This is talking about earnings. This isn't talking about a reevaluation of valuations or multiples, right? This is talking about earnings are gonna change, which means the multiples change. And that brings us, this is Hartnett, I think of Bank of America, I'll jump through, but 3,300 to 3,500. There's a lot of reasonable minds, folks, saying that the market can edge lower. That's 7% below where we're at right now. Goldman Sachs, slash their year-end target for the US benchmark index lead Thursday. Also, you jump to them. They're talking about to 3,600 from where? 4,300. What? What? There was no revision in the middle of 700 points, right? Goldman slashes their year-end target for the S&P to 3,600 from 4,300, arguing that a dramatic shift in the outlook for interest rates moving higher will weigh on valuations for US equities. Now, the higher interest rate scenario supports a PE multiple of 15 times compared to 18 times previously. That's what they're talking about. Our economists now forecast they're gonna raise by 75 in November, 15 December, and they're gonna keep it on the pedal 25 in February for a peak funds rate of 4.5 to 4.75. Now, here's what I will say is, if we're at the end of a hiking cycle and that's the peak by February, I think we'll be okay. It's gonna be a dicey road up until February, but it's already almost October, okay? Usually the market's gonna get ahead of itself, folks. The pain and the equities are gonna come ahead of the peak rate. The quicker the peak comes, the quicker the trough can come in stocks in my opinion, right? There's gonna take time for the economy to catch up, but if that's the peak, and if you start hearing words from the Fed, that they're gonna, I mean, look at it. Basically, their economist right now said that it's gonna start a gradual decline on their next hike in November. They're gonna go 75 only one more time, and then they're gonna gradually go down to zero. They're gonna go 50 in December, 25 in February, and that'll be it. We start hearing those words from the chairman. I think things will change dramatically. So maybe we are approaching that level in the next month or two, but maybe the market needs to reset itself prior to that time. That's kind of the disclaimer there that comes with it. Yeah, risk to the latest forecasters still skewed to the downside because of the rising odds of a recession. I would say so, folks. I mean, you think about, people are pretty hyper aware right now of the costs that are going up, which should probably make them hyper aware of making sure they're not spending on money that they don't need to. Seems like we might reach that point mentally. I mean, you start seeing mortgage rates at 7%, 8%. We're gonna be there, man. I think the last print on mortgage rates I saw was it going to almost 6.5%, and that's before we've got the acceleration we've gotten today in a big way. Let's check out gold. As we have some gold action today in a big way, chipped a natural gas right after that as well, but gold, you've given back all those gains. You were up to 1665 at about nine o'clock. You give up that $10 bounce. You're right near the lows of gold, and we are now breaking below this consolidation area. And I'm gonna back this up for a five-year weekly, and maybe 15, 25, it's your next stop, man. Maybe gold's heading down to the COVID lows like everything else. Now you did make it to 1450 at one point. The 618 of the entire move higher, and their golds move higher about August to 2018. When I back this up for a monthly, you can see that it consolidated for a while. That's a good liftoff spot in terms of where this thing really started. Now you have gold bottoming from 1200. Basically, from June of 13, you take off in August of 2018. So five and a half years, you based around between 12 and 1400. Excuse me, you make the acceleration higher, and then where can gold pull back to, you think? Now, number one, there's your COVID volatility in March of 2020. We are now into that bar, which started at 1700. The low of that bar is 1450. The 618 and the entire move is at about 1525, and that's also where you had a little bit of resistance. Back in late 2019, maybe that turns into an area of support for gold. But boy, this, as Bank of America was saying, in terms of those cash numbers, man, people pulling money out for cash. I don't think people wanna own much of anything if they think that they need their cash and things are gonna be pretty tough right now. And gold, unfortunately, included oil, included as well. I mean, look at this. What's positive right now on this chart? Look at these notes. Look at this one, though. Oh, no, that's given it back to, yeah. So I have the 30-year, technically positive, in terms of higher by three ticks, not much on this, in terms of every single commodity, every single index. Let's jump to natural gas real quick, because that's got some action along with everything else. Let's just put it on a daily, zoom in on the volatility we've had recently, since basically December of last year. And yeah, where's our next stop, right? Maybe it's all the way back to 537, man. Natural gas just dropped from nine bucks to under $7. That's the low of 2022, what? Yeah, we're only talking about July, in terms of those lows. For natural gas, just dropping like a rock, man, right now. We'll see how accrued trading right now, 79-14. Forgive me, as my phone rings. And not sure where Crue goes either, man, because Crue's below a decisive area. We're below the highs you had from October of 2021. You're approaching a 78-handle. And yeah, as you can see from this chart, man, it's kind of no man's land in terms of where you go, right? Maybe you come back into the highs of July of last year, which is about $75.93, maybe $76 bucks, maybe a nice round number, $75 to accrued. Quite a drop-off right now. This is a daily chart we're looking at. We were just at 86 yesterday, and we might finish at 78-handle on the price accrued as everything's accelerating, man. So dicey one, folks. You take a look at the S&P, and that is not a parallel channel line, but it's a little indicative of what's been happening this year in terms of lower lows, lower highs, and boy, you trained to just the bottom level of this channel line. There's your 3,300 folks, right? That's lining up. The lows in January, the lows in February, the lows in early March, the lows in May, the lows in June. Stay tuned, folks. One more segment. We'll be right back. TFNN has just launched their new trading room, the Tiger Zen, hosted at Discord. TFNN has been educating traders for more than 20 years with live programming hosted by a variety of professional traders during market hours, and now they are expanding their reach with the Tiger's Den, available to all Tigers and Tigresses for just $1 for the year. There's no catch or added costs when you join our community of traders. In the Tiger's Den, you can look over the shoulders of Tom O'Brien and the other TFNN hosts while they analyze charts during their live Tiger TV programs and join an interactive trading community with hundreds of members exchanging ideas. Interact with other Tigers and Tigresses as they share trading ideas, news analysis, and discuss the market action all trading day, even at night and on the weekends. 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First-time subscribers also get a 30-day money-back guarantee. If you're not satisfied, let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up. Subscribe to the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter today. TFNN.com, educating investors. This segment is brought to you by Think or Swim. For more information, just click the Think or Swim banner on the front page of TFNN.com. Welcome back, folks. S&P's down 62 points right now. We just made a low at 3706. We're at 3709 right now. How about the NASDAQ 100 off 1.6% the dial right now off about 1.3%. And yeah, you talk about movement. We just have the dollar index, man. We jump over to the DXY. Dollar index just pushed a high of 112.42. We jump back to that pound. Pound US dollar right now, breaking lows. We almost got a 109 handle in the pound US dollar. We'll jump to the Euro US dollar. 97.4, man, right near the lows as well. I was thinking about this last night even before today's news on the pound. Currents get a lot of attention, right? You heard President Trump out there talking about a weak dollar because it helps to sell things overseas. It helps companies at times, okay? So that gets political. But in the back of my mind, folks, here's what you always want to remember, right? Things are tough right now. And the dollar index is accelerating higher. Yields are higher, so it's tough on the stocks, okay? But in the grand scheme of things, we printed too much money, which has caused inflation, right? Think about it. Commodities are so important because they're basically life. Now, microchips are becoming commodities, okay? But crude, we're seeing commodities and how important they are right now and the problems that Europe is facing. In what universe would you not want to be able to print imaginable money, which is what we do basically for the dollars, okay? We print things on pieces of paper. Of course we would want that to be worth as much as possible from other countries across the globe and what they would pay for it. Of course we would want that printed piece of paper that literally rolls off my printer in the corner of our room for the government purposes, okay? To be worth as much as possible for the betterment of our country because that's the money that we're using and it's what people are willing to pay for across the globe. And it comes down to things, folks, okay? Commodities come down to things. Life comes down to things. Currencies pay for things. So don't get caught up in that short-term translation of ever thinking that you want a weak trash currency that you are a member of that country and are seeing a play out right now in the dollar. Tough market, stay tuned, folks. It's gonna be a wild one. Basil's up next. Have a great Friday and weekend.