 Hello everyone. Welcome to another International Relations Capsule for the Shankar IAS Academy. We have been celebrating Onam in Kerala and therefore we missed one class last week, my apologies. This time we will talk about bricks. All of you know about bricks. You have heard about it for a long time. Always wondering what its role was in the world. You know that this whole idea of brick, not bricks, DRIC was invented by an American economist who said that there were several common features between Brazil, Russia, India and China. And these are all large countries developing very fast, common economic problems etc. But of course, politically these are all very very very diverse. So he did not intend it to be an organization of any kind. But gradually an idea emerged that there could be an organization called BRIC. And later, in order to include Africa also into the group, South Africa was invited. And that is how BRICS was formed. Initially, there was really no political group to keep all these countries together. And its mission was also not very very clear. But the idea was that since these countries have similar experiences and similar problems, they could get together and discuss some of these social and economic issues. So the summits started. And when you have an organization, it has a dynamism its own. An agenda is found, discussions start. And generally it takes a line eventually in a particular direction. And then it grows. That is how international organizations are formed. But China saw an opportunity in this, which others did not perhaps. And they thought that could turn this organization into an anti-West organization. By challenging western concepts of economics, particularly the Bretton Woods institutions. Because they have been controlled by the United States and the western world. And there could be a counter to that. And India itself had that view that the Bretton Woods institutions should be revitalized, more role for other countries to play. Because in the World Bank and IMF, it is the biggest contributors who call the shots. They are not democratic organizations. So there was this sentiment generally. And China led this onto an anti-Western economic group slowly and steadily. Even though Brits also have discussed other issues. So in the last few months, maybe a year or so. There has been a move to develop or at least organize global south. Even during the ideological conflicts of the Cold War days, when the world was divided between east and west. There was some thinking about south and north also. For political division was east and west, while the economic division was north and south. Because generally countries in the north are more prosperous than the countries in the south. And of course the ideas of this division was voiced by on the one side by G7, the most powerful countries in the world. And G77, because it is more than 77 countries, but still as a counter to 7, it was called 77. And discussions took place and G77 worked closely with the non-aligned movement. And others had their own G7 meetings and so on. Russia joined G7 for a while became G8, but soon Russia was removed and G7 went back to the same position. So in the world of economics, there was the G7 and the G77. And negotiations took place and they worked out some arrangements, but of course neither was happy with the others behavior. But this continued and the summits, the BRICS summits used to be held and it was an opportunity for these five countries to exchange views, ideas, etc. And two things emerged. One was the idea of a BRICS bank. It was very small, but eventually aiming to counter the Bretton Woods institution. That's what China had in mind. And the other countries went along with it. And then also there was an idea of a development fund for the BRICS countries, which is of course attractive, not much money. But these two institutions grew and slowly China adopted a position of leadership in this group. The Bretton Woods countering the bank, which is called the BRICS bank, was established in China with an Indian director. Because India was considered also as a venue, but China wanted it. And so the director was from India, but the center was in China. So this was dragging on, nothing much had happened except for the addition of South Africa. And nobody cared much about it. But suddenly there is a big interest in global South being developed. And China of course was not in G77, but there was an arrangement like G77 and China. China did not become a member, but supported generally the developing countries agenda. So China being in it is nothing, not new, but Russia also a part of it. And so we have a new global South being formed. And particularly after the start of the Russia-Ukraine war, this strengthened because global international global problems increased. There was also the climate change issue. There was the question of the pandemic. So there were very many things that the global South needed. And there was no particular organization for that, because G77 was there, Non-Aland was there, but they were a little bit old. And so a new sort occurred about a global South. And many countries started speaking about it, the interests of the global South. And at the conference in Johannesburg in South Africa recently, both Russia and China together with South Africa noted a proposal to expand BRICS and started sounding out other developing countries, important developing countries, so that BRICS could be representative of a bigger group of countries. So many about 22 countries applied. India was against it in the beginning because of the fear that Pakistan might be brought in some form. And we are fed up of multilateral organizations with Pakistan racing, Kashmir issue everywhere. So we were against it, but in the process of this discussion, it was decided that it would be only on the basis of consensus. And we opposed Pakistan and therefore Pakistan was left out. And a general selection was made. Latin America needed a representation, so Argentina was brought in. Then of the Arab countries, Saudi Arabia and UAE and also from the same region, Iran came in and Egypt. So these six countries were invited to join with the opportunity for others to apply 32 of them to negotiate their way into the BRICS in the new course. So the six countries with the six and the old five now, this is BRICS 11, which took certain decisions in Johannesburg. So basically what BRICS had been saying earlier, but with a greater authority and so on because two big powers are there, Russia and China. And major powers from all parts of the continent of the world are there. So it assumes certain legitimacy and a certain clout. But it's too early for them to make demands on the developed world. And so they were sounding out what to do. One of the things they did was in the final declaration, two or three important things. First was this whole idea of expansion of BRICS. So the others will also be brought in. So it is possible that by the next time, by the time the next summit takes place, there will be some more countries in this. So it is gaining some kind of legitimacy and importance. So one of the things they did was to reiterate the support that BRICS had given to India, Brazil and South Africa to become permanent members of the Security Council. And for BRICS to say that was fine. But now with two permanent members in the organization, it may have been difficult for them to say so. And even if they said so, they would not have meant it. So, but in spite of that, they allowed that reference to be made. That this organization, BRICS 11, supports India, Brazil and South Africa for permanent membership. But I do not see any hope for that because Russia and China, they may say it in this group, but outside it, they will oppose any expansion of the permanent membership. In fact, permanent members are not the only ones who are objective to such expansion. The majority of the member states are not in favor. That also we know. So that is more a formality. And the other important thing that they discussed and gave to some conclusion was about using of a currency for the group. And also, deep dollar rise in the economy of the world, economies of the world. And there's something which is being discussed and China has been very ambitious in this. And they have been wanting the yuan to become the global currency rather than the dollar. In the expectation that they would overtake the United States one of these days. They had that hope during the pandemic. They thought the United States was disappearing and China should take over the week. But that did not happen, of course. And still they have this intention. And so they floated this idea in this group as to whether they could have their own currency. That the BRICS put out so currency, but naturally others did not support it. So the agreement that came about was that the members of BRICS 11 could trade with each other in their own currencies. That's an option that everybody has. We had it with ruble trade with Soviet Union. We recently signed an agreement with UAE and UAE happens to be now in BRICS. So there's nothing unusual they could decide on selling and buying goods in their own currencies. But it did not take the form of a regular currency for the world or even a compulsory currency for BRICS itself. So the east-west divide while it remains now has a powerful north-south divide also. And this organization will keep take on many agenda items that BRICS had dealt with. And it will be generally a grouping of developing countries to fight the developed countries for the development of the developing countries. And demands would be made, negotiations would be made. East-west north-south negotiations would be possible for a new world. So the significance of this BRICS 11 is that in a way it has contributed substantially to the new world order that we are all thinking about. Because at the moment there is no world order because people are not respecting all the resolutions and decisions of the United Nations or these groups themselves. And even bilateral agreements like China have refuted all the bilateral agreements that signed with India. So a new world order is necessary. And the first shot about this was done by the United States by offering India the privileges of an ally. Even without India becoming a member of NATO or even allowing the Quad to become a military bloc. So India had refused it. But suddenly because of its problems with China, the United States decided to offer us a large amount of technology and equipment and even weapons which are normally provided only to NATO countries. So we became like a non-NATO ally of the United States. So one BRICS has been laid for the global, the new global order. So in the sense that it is now established that the differences will be between democracies because the Quad are all democracies. And the autocracies with Russia and China having signed a solid agreement between them. So that is how the new world war was emerging. And India now was very close to the United States having accepted the new offers. And it was quite natural for India to be among the democracies. But now the issue is that Russia and China are also in this group and therefore this big powers interest will come in. And what they will do is to expand the BRICS to a much bigger number and then try to form as the voice of the global south. This is the consequence of this. But whether this is good or not, whether it will be useful for us or not are all these questions which are confronting us. Because when this new organization becomes strong with Russia and China in it is a new thing for the developing world has got two big countries in it. And therefore this will be a different BRICS. So the Chinese have seen it as a new opportunity. And they think that with the support of Russia also and others, they would be able to counter the Bretton Woods institutions. And at the moment it is still very unclear the expansion itself is not final because they have said that the others can also be considered. So it will be a bigger organization and whether this bigger organization will be more helpful for the grouping is something to be seen. Because when you have a bigger group and that too such a heterogeneous group and that assumes the importance of the global south, how will decisions be taken? Because both Russia and China will throw their weight around and try to get things done for themselves. And the smaller countries like Ethiopia and so on, what will they do in this group? So maybe a smaller group with stronger members would have been a better one. Because G77 became very diluted, like the normal and became very diluted. Because if everybody joins the normal and normal, then what happens to the ideology? Similarly, if everybody joins G77, so those countries Russia and China which are out of it is now in the group, whether it will be helpful or whether there will be conflict inside is the question to be answered. Of course it is quite possible that this will happen because they will be the influence and it may become a bit of a headache to India. And generally a problem with the organization itself. So it will become, the unity of bricks will become very important. How it develops and who takes what size etc. So far that was not an issue. Within these five countries, all of them were operating more or less individually. So the new countries which have joined are fairly harmless because they all have an interest in the developing countries and they are growing fast. But others like Nigeria and Kenya were also very keen to join. And since they were both fighting with each other, they took Ethiopia rather than either of them. Saudi Arabia joining and UAE is joining and Iran joining, which has a Middle East strength also. And they will naturally be working in the interests of developing countries of the Middle East. So the decisions regarding the security council and the currency are significant. But it is still very tentative and we do not know what shape it takes. And then the question of the future of bricks is also a good question. Because none of us can guess how this will turn out because China and Russia are in bricks. And now China and Russia may try to bring in more countries into it. And the idea of a global south may or may not emerge from this group. Because some countries may want to have a south group without Russia and China. But Russia and China have used bricks in order to establish themselves in this new organization. And they are not going to let it go. So suddenly bricks has become an important organization number one. Secondly, its unity is going to be very difficult to maintain. And thirdly, it all depends on how many other countries will join and push the agenda around. But certainly this is a contribution to the new world order which is emerging. If the world accepts bricks as a global south and starts consulting it, and the global north considers it a competent partner, then things may be better. But as of now, we do not know whether it will become the global south or continue to be another organization which may not have much to do in world affairs. And this has to be seen, we have a stake in this because we have been associated with bricks right from the beginning. And we had wanted also that there should be an organization which reflects the thoughts of the south. So India will be keenly watching what happened in Johannesburg was not against our interests because the two decisions taken were more or less in our line of thinking. And the expansion has also not been established for us. So we have to watch and see what bricks 11 will bring to the world. Well, India has very friendly relations with Latin American countries for a long time. But the distance was always a factor, even though people had reached their cultural linkages there are many Latin American countries which are spiritually oriented. They have interests in our gurus and so on. Then literature, Latin American literature, music etc have been popular in India. And so there are many linkages. But I mentioned Latin America in the context of having one more Latin American country. Brazil is already there but it is not Spanish speaking. So they probably felt that another Latin American country which is Spanish speaking should also be in this group. So there is no problem for us with the equation with Argentina or Brazil. But they were included to give geographical representation. And both the countries will have many new ideas to offer. Well, it is a moderate African country and we have good relations as you say. So it will not be against our interests. And I am sure our role ties with really Elisalasi and all that may probably come out again when we negotiate with them. But it is a good addition. But they were added simply because Kenya and Nigeria were fighting for one seat. And so they decided to give it to Ethiopia. But of course, Kenya and Nigeria will also come in subsequently. And Ethiopia is a good country for us. Yes, this is what I anticipated. And I said that to have Russia and China as part of the developing south is not very comfortable. Because even when I used to say that these bricks, two non-vegetarians and three vegetarians, two big powers and three comparatively smaller powers, how is it going to work? I used to ask that question in the initial stages. And China began dominating it. So and China wanted to expand it also and we were reluctant to do that. But we agreed. Our consideration there was that China, Pakistan will not be allowed. And also it was probably a deal. We would not have liked Pakistan to be also in this group. So since that was conceded, we may have conceded on the other countries. But we have not heard the last of the expansion. Expansion may take place and more and more and the bricks 11 will keep changing. We have to watch out for that. Because as far as domination is concerned, China will try and China and Russia together these days. And therefore there will be a formidable group inside the bricks. More African countries are interested to join the group. Can you give a small brief about England and Chinese influence in the continent? Well, we have been talking about it for a long time. But clearly India's position in Africa has been undermined by China. In fact, it was undermined during my days in Africa, in Kenya. At that time the major countries which were assisting Africa and trying to take Africa away from us were Japan and Korea, not China. So we were in a sense struggling with Japan and Korea in our relations with Nairobi, with Kenya. And I remember when we were contesting against Japan for the Security Council membership. Non-Permanent membership. And I approached the president of Kenya for the vote. And he of course hummed and hard. But he finally told me that Japan has a very major assistance program to Kenya, amounting to something like, I don't remember the exact figure, something like $250 million. And what he was suggesting was would India be able to give that if they give us the vote? You know, Africans see it in that manner. So naturally I did not encourage a discussion on that score. Because I know that we don't have that kind of money to give. But I talked more about our cultural relations, Indian diaspora there and all these are common interests. But Kenya did not vote for us. It was very clear. And so that was the issue at that time. Now things have changed further. Japanese and Koreans have also become minor players when China has virtually taken over Africa. Practically because of all the mineral wealth that is in the continent. And hunger for these minerals. Because technology development in China needs a lot of these minerals. They need to give assistance to whatever they want in order to capture that. And initially Africans have not been very wise. They were making signing contracts at low prices. Accepting gifts from them like schools and stadia and hospitals. And so on as part of the Belt and Road Initiative also a lot of money was sanctioned to several African countries. And now discovered that these are all dead traps. And also the kind of resources they are giving to these countries are things which are not in use in excess in China. Where it is people or equipment etc. Which were not usable in China. They were giving it away to Africans. So that is being found out. And some African countries have tried to get out of the Chinese stronghold. But that's not easy. Once you join with them the whole will tighten. And India does not have that kind of a code. We are still remaining there. There are very many reports and statements by African leaders. Which seem to suggest that the next is going to be an Indian Africa. Or Indian century in Africa. I do not see it happening because I myself seen the attitude of many African states. To India, vis-a-vis China, vis-a-vis the West etc. They have nothing against us. But they feel that technology is better abroad in Europe. Or scholarships are better. And therefore they make use of our assistance program only when they have nothing else to carry on with. So I am not so optimistic that India's relationship with Africa will develop very quickly. But I have some of my own colleagues writing books saying that this is going to happen. But the Chinese are not going to let it go so easily. And now Russians also will work with the Chinese. And so we will have a tough time to deal with China and vis-a-vis Africa. And suddenly may be our traditional relations with Africa will help. In terms of what we at the moment do there. We have very small assistance program. But we have also several credit lines given to African countries. But what happens is they don't even use these credit lines. Because if they use these credit lines, they have to get people and equipment from India. If they use India's credit lines. But if they use western credit lines they can go to study in America or Europe. And get more money as scholarship etc. So there again there is a little bit of balance for India. But I suppose they will see the value of staying close to India. After they have been through all these experiences. Thank you.