 In the future, we have to look at some facts that may be rather painful, like loss of revenues or loss of opportunities or change of business model. Talk about Nokia and companies like that, right? The pain that you experience of having to recognize that something has really changed, that you have to reinvent. So it's about pain and love, you know, falling in love with an idea. If Jeff Bezos had not fallen in love with the Kindle, we wouldn't have an e-book reader today, because nobody asked for it. So falling in love with an idea is crucial, and we kind of need both for that future. Briefly about myself, I used to be a musician and producer. I work now as a futurist, which is basically about four sites, understanding what goes on, helping people discover the future. I have my own TV show called The Future Show, and I live in Switzerland. And this is my job in that shell, taking a very complex environment and bringing it down to a key point. And I will not be talking the whole time, you will be delighted to hear. I'm just doing a short introduction with a couple of slides, and I'll be moderating the rest of the day. Important for this conversation, I think for the whole discussion about technology, is this sign that's derived from Pablo Picasso and actually been extended by Kevin Kelly of Wired Magazine, who said computers are for answers, humans are for questions. And that's a very interesting part when it's about the future, right? What is our job going to be in that near future? So I'll get going on this, and then we'll move on to the other sessions. Again, if you want to tweet anytime, you can ask the question through the system. My assistant is looking at the answers, and we'll decide if we're going to display it. The first thing about the future is really difficult, is that we're moving into an exponential society, right? We're moving into a world where we no longer have linear changes. And this is basically because now technology, as Moore's law and Metcalf's law and other laws of digital advancement technology, make it possible for things to happen in a very short time that we thought were science fiction. For example, automatic translation. You can now buy an app called Say Hi for $2, and you can translate in real time in 14 languages. You can have a conversation with the Japanese sushi cook without speaking Japanese from Arabic to Japanese in real time. And he will answer back using the same app, talking about science fiction. And these things are now happening every single day. There's lots and lots of advancement in computer learning, technology, deep learning. It's kind of like this GIF here, this little clip. It took a long time for anything to happen, but when something really gets going, it basically fills up very quickly. And there's a great quote by Hemingway who said, basically, how does a person go broke? Gradually, then suddenly. And this is something we have to remember that. We look back and we're saying, we talked about this 1995, digital media over the top, television, big data, right? But it took forever and now that it's here, it's explosive. So just the fact that we think it took a long time does not mean that our future will not be exponentially larger. You look backwards and you say, okay, it was quite clear 10 years ago that people were interested in electric cars or hybrid cars. And nothing happened for a long time. And all of a sudden, every single car company in the world has one goal, is to build electric, self-driving, assisted driving, shared, public cars. That happened in two years. So change is exponential. There's another great word that goes with this, we should put on the list for the wrap-up later. It's called combinatorial compound. Basically means all these trends are happening at the same time. If you look at all this list, which is a rather geeky list, social media, cloud, big data, internet of things, robotics, and so on, all these are happening at the same time. So if you're in the business of telecom and communications, you're not going to get around thinking about robotics, thinking about the value of data, cloud security, education. And that makes life rather busy, right? Because the next seven years are going to be explosive in this combinatorial future. Here's another truth, I don't know who said this first, but I like to use this. That technology or machines, robots, software, does not have ethics. It will do whatever it needs to do to get the job done. And it will do whatever it needs to do to make itself stronger. If you give a robot 50,000 CPUs, if he can, it will pull it all inside himself to make himself stronger, because that's what they do, right? That's what machines do. So we have to think about ethics, because most of these issues that we're currently facing, big data, security, data standards, all of these things, privacy, those are ethical issues. Just like we have to think about if a country is allowed to have a nuclear power plant for energy, or if they are allowed to build a nuclear bomb. It's 98% the same material. Those are issues we have to think about when it's about data and the future of communications, and the question of why we use technology. You know, 10 years ago when I was an internet entrepreneur, our first question was a very simple question. We had a plan, we wanted to do something, and the question was how do we do this? How much money do we spend, and what technology do we use? And the question was gone. The question was also if we can do something. Today, the answer to every single question, whether you can do geoengineering or climate control, is usually going to be yes. Sooner or later, you can. So we have to think about the question of why, and we have to reset our brain to think exponential, which Yuri will talk about in a later session. We have to get used to the fact that the world is ramping up like this, and we are like this, right? We are linear. We don't think faster because we use a mobile phone. It looks like we think faster. So technology is progressing at exponential warp speed, but we are down here. We are here in this place that is very much using this very powerful tool as Ray Kurzweil said, and the mobile phone that I have today, I have the power that the President of the United States had in his mainframe computer 10 years ago. That's my mobile phone today. So we have to think about what that means, how our laws are going to be impacted by these regulations. I mean, if you're a regulator today, your job is gigantic. You're not just thinking about who's going to have what frequency and what can they do in all these things, right? You're thinking about all of these things. The job has gotten a lot larger, right? But think about all what that means and how it comes together. And now we're going to have three billion new minds. I think we always had those minds that just weren't online, right? But three billion new connected people in the next five years. Look at the growth in the developing countries, right? The growth is mind-boggling. The countries that are red are going to connect, red and orange. Three billion new minds. You know what they're going to do? They're going to innovate. They're going to disrupt. They're going to find other ways to do other things. They're going to consume. They're going to create. And they're going to do it not in English. They're going to do it in all their own languages. So this is a world that is going to be rapidly different as to what it does. We're going to have powerful new intermediaries. You guys are probably all Facebook users or ex-Facebook users if you can get away. Did you know that 30% of kids between 15 and 35, call them kids, right? 30% of those people are using Facebook to read the news. They're not going on news websites. They're not going on television. They're not going to see an annular BBC. They're going to the Facebook feed to read the news. And do you know how many people are curating the news in Facebook? 15 people. 15 people are in charge of 30% of all the Facebook users that go there for news. It's mind-boggling, right? New intermediaries, new powers. And then we have the digital natives, our kids basically, my kids, you know, who are around 20. They were born digital and for them it's just like going to the bathroom when they connect to the internet. It's something you do all the time. It's something that's natural, so to speak. Look at these stats over here. You can clearly see the change here in developing countries you have a lot more digital natives than we have in Europe or the US. The change that's going to come from that will be absolutely astounding. Here's some scenes from a digital native, right? This is an old video but it still makes around is how a kid has figured out to use the iPad now it's using a magazine it's trying to zoom into the magazine, right? I'm sure you've seen this before. Mind-boggling, how behavior changes. And then there's people on Facebook who are trying to find new friends when there's friends knocking out at their door. I'm sure you've been there too, trying to find more friends. And this is what happens when you do texting while you walk, right? This is a very common problem. And this is a street sign in China. Forgot it very exactly. If you're looking at your mobile phone you can only walk in a certain lane. It's regulated because there's so many accidents people running into each other. So digital natives are taken over and those are different kind of people. They're going to pay differently, they're going to consume differently, they're going to study differently, they're going to vote differently. And they're going to expect other things from us. This is an investment that Google made last month. I think 700 million dollars in this company called Magic Leap that is reinventing how we see things on a computer. 3D immersive without wearing any glasses, virtual reality coming out of your computer. So you can go inside of an environment. Mind-boggling changes that are expecting us there. The reinvention of how we see things with the Oculus Rift and virtual travel, we'll see some of that later. Augment in a virtual reality. All these things in Google Glass. For example, this is a scene from a Google video talking about what happens when you wear a virtual device and you go into a store and you get set information from points of sale in the store on your eyeglasses. This is now commercially available Google Glass. So it's showing you stuff and showing you directions in the store. Okay Glass, how do I know when avocados are right? Well you can see that on YouTube but you get the point that I'm trying to make here. And that leads us to something like smart cities, right? Connecting cities. Finding a way to save energy. Finding a way to regulate information. Ever since that happened, for example, in Los Angeles 4,700 traffic lights have been networked together. 10% of gas can be saved by networking the traffic lights. Just by very simple means. You're seeing the rise of urbanization of course everywhere around the world and smarter cities and the whole debate about smart farming by connecting fields and plows. I mean this is a mind boggling opportunity for developing countries. Smart agriculture. Smart cities. Smart energy. There's a spot for leadership right there. And we have two large things that are happening. One is the internet of things. Connected things, you know. Traffic lights. Wearables. Monitoring devices. Stuff that basically connects everything to the internet of everything as some people say, or the industrial internet as Google has come to call it. And the other part of that is artificial intelligence that allows machines to emulate humans. The most simple thing is if you have an iPhone or even I think a Microsoft phone does it as well, you can speak to your iPhone and ask the question on Siri and you can say how is the weather today and Siri will give you an answer. That is essentially a form of artificial intelligence. Every single internet company in the world has number one goal right now is not to improve search but to develop an artificial intelligence that knows what we're doing and what we want. It's potentially quite scary and also very powerful. Connected cars. Connected households. Connected people of course. Connected thermostats. Those are mind boggling things. Some people are saying that if we put this together we can achieve an energy saving of 40% worldwide and together with a switch to renewable energy, at least partly with renewable energy, we can solve global warming based on the internet of things. So there's lots and lots of things happening and then there is stuff that's happening in business where all of a sudden we can see all the way through facts because we have huge feeds of data. We have the possibility to look all the way through and get some sort of super intelligence. If you look at software that does this for example now you're able to analyze your customers and their behavior with two people where it used to take you 300 to figure out what they're doing. Very powerful big data. We'll talk more about that in the panel discussion later. We have this whole trend towards technology can predict. Google has decided not to get involved with predicting the stock market which they could. See of Google said we could do this because we have all the trends in what people are searching for. We have all that intelligence. This is a scene from Minority Report and predictive analytics of course are taken off everywhere. And then of course as you know if we use mobile devices with broadband then we're giving our data into the network and we're starting to put stuff into the cloud. For example, the phone number of your relatives. You don't remember you put on your device. If you're looking up somebody on LinkedIn you're using the cloud as your biography. So you're outsourcing your thinking to the cloud if you have a cloud of course. But make no mistake about this even in the remotest part of the world in five years this becomes a standard. Connectivity at high speeds, cloud computing because basically the efficiency of that is extremely powerful. But I can ask you, you can answer later in your feedback session now who's in charge of this? I mean who actually runs this cloud? Who makes sure that my data about my health records doesn't go to any doctor that pretends to be a doctor? Or any police agency in the world without a reason, without a warrant? Who is in charge of the social contracts? Will we end up in a world that looks like this? As this book says, the circle, it's a famous book about privacy, a novel everything that happens must be known. Will this be the end of anonymity, privacy, boredom? So those are some questions we'll debate later but basically what we see here is quite clear that people are connected in a really high powered way right now and we can see what they're doing. Everybody is becoming a source of data. All of us are a constant source of data. And there's companies like Facebook who are using that data to build a gigantic business. Not saying that without any question and we'll discuss that later but basically what we see here is that data is really becoming the new oil. We've said this 10 years ago and it's interesting to say that here in Doha of course and in the Gulf region, data is in fact running the economy already. Some people like McKinsey have said that within 10 years the data economy will be bigger than the fossil fuel economy. So the question is, can we do this without having this disaster of an environmental like data disaster, like a Fukushima of data, an explosion of data that's not supposed to happen. And then we have these things we'll be debating in the second part of the day where some technologies are becoming available that are quite useful to some of us but very concerning to others. The idea of having nanotechnology in your bloodstream that fixes your cholesterol, that maybe changes your genes, that orchestrates medication. That idea is wildly popular now. Personalized medicine? Of course it's great if you're sick but otherwise would you like the idea of people having the internet access on their iris with a contact lens? That's becoming a reality as well. Brain-computer interfaces. Just last week a major breakthrough of being able to control a machine by thinking and having it picked up through a stream. The connection of humans and people. What we do on smartphones is to use them as an outside brain. Some of us are very excited about this. Other ones feel like this is very creepy because the system is sort of moving inside of us or we are moving inside of the system. You can see here the world's first family robot called Jibo. This machine was funded on Kickstarter for several million dollars and what it does, it's a house robot you put on your desk and it takes pictures, it talks to you, it orchestrates your reality. And here's a quote from the founder who says she envisions a day when every household will have one and then she says they are not robots, they are not tools, they are partners. And this is not a joke. This is a real life project. So we'll discuss that with Rolf when he comes on later. Robots that move far beyond what we used to call machines. Seems like a trip into science fiction land but it's just around the corner. So the question I have for you is like does technology have seemingly... I have to connect this. Can you please connect the power to my computer there? It's running out of power. So technology is very important to look at what happens there. When we have technology that connects us, the question comes up, do we actually become like technology? Technology becomes extremely powerful but we don't really want to come and compete with technology. Can you switch back to my presentation please? Just put the power plug in. You can just switch back, there was battery left. I mean I can just ramble on without my slides but I think you would prefer to have that to switch back to my slide. I will pay you extra bonus tonight if you switch back to my slides. We'll need it for the rest of it too. This is a preview of a poll we're going to do later. So the question is should humans become technology? I think the answer is clearly not and you may have seen the cover of Wired magazine two years ago when Ray Kurzweil, who is the founder of the Singularity Movement, talked about how we can potentially live forever because of technology. Not forever but maybe 150 years. So those are very interesting questions that are kind of wondering whether we're going to resort to what has been referred to as machine thinking. Thinking of our environment as a machine. To that I have a small comment in this cartoon that the cartoon says, no you weren't downloaded, you were born. And that is kind of a good summary of the whole debate about humans versus machines. So where will this take us? We'll discuss later on on the panel. We have artificial intelligence that has been called by many people to be an extremely startling and unsettling phenomenon. For example, Elon Musk, the founder of Tesla, he said it could be as dangerous as nuclear power. And you've seen some of those quotes we'll discuss later on the panel as well. So this is leading us to new kinds of arms race. The next arms race, the next military is going to be about guns and soldiers, as it is already not really. It's about technology, data computing, cloud security, cyber security, cyber warfare. Up to 50% of all military spending in five years will be going towards that resource. So that's a huge thing for, of course it's also a business opportunity, right? But it's a new kind of arms race led with data and artificial intelligence, a kind of war click. So this future is leading us to an interesting place and you can judge for yourself and give us some feedback on this later. Are we moving into a future that's hell or heaven? And there's a great American word for this called hell then, hell and heaven. Because technology really could be both. It could be heaven because we can be efficient, we can save energy, we can communicate, we can fix things, we can innovate. Or it could be hell, you know, what the difference between humans and technology is. Or if we lose privacy, or if we become addicted to this world. Automation, everywhere in the world we have automation. From the hotel key to ordering food on the iPad to giving your luggage away at the airport, everything is becoming automated. And you know what that means, for example, if you live in India and China, from there, you know, manufacturing is impacted by this every single day. Many companies, I just saw the other day that a robot was ordered called Baxter, over a million of them were ordered for factories in China. A million. To replace people doing jobs that can be automated. So this idea of software technology taken over jobs, that's with us now. And right now it's just repetitive jobs, but in the future it will also be white collar jobs. Financial analysts, bookkeepers, futurists, no, not futurists, never. But routine based, average jobs, look at the stats here from the Oxford study. It's between 42 and 64% that could be impacted by the change of technology automating digitizing things. This idea that has been generated here for a long time, starting with the latest Honda project, the Asimov. So you know, if my kids go to school today, I'm not going to tell them to be a bookkeeper, or a telemarketer, or a data input clerk, because those jobs are going away. So the future for us also holds this intermediation. All of a sudden what's happening is that lots of traditional businesses are being threatened by new businesses like M-Pesa, mobile money. That used to be the banks, at least in not in Africa, but other places. Now it's mobile money. Going direct, for example, using an app where you can get a house loan. So what you do there is you just use the app to find a house and go online, Facebook for news, Uber for the taxi chauffeur, and even for airplanes. If you like to go on private airplanes and you have the money, you use JetSmarter to get one over the Internet, just like a car. Mind-boggling, all these disruptive technologies. This software called Xero, X-E-R-O from New Zealand. Their goal is to put about 10 million bookkeepers out of work, because they have reinvented every step of the bookkeeping process that cost me $200 a year rather than $3,000. And that's happening across the board. That's the power of technology, and that's of course also the threat to the system, and human work is because of that environment, is moving up the food chain. This is a great clip by IBM showing how in this pyramid our work and our future is moving away from data information knowledge, that is computers, to the top level, wisdom and intelligence. Things that only humans can do. So more dependency on technology, but hopefully also shorter work hours, at least in the developed countries, will be partly of our future. I have a few more slides and then we'll get some questions and some debate. So basically in the digital transformation of society that we're seeing, there's a flip part of this as well, and we have to look at this and we'll discuss it later, and that is the transformation of the ecosystem. The entire world is now becoming interconnected, interdependent. Everything is mashed up with other things. I mean all of the industries are now mashed up, and new players and new industries come along, and now we have a new principle coming up called People Planet Profit, a new way to think of how you run companies. And this is not about ideology, this is about the future of economics. And we had invited a good friend of mine, Jeremy Rifkin, to speak here, unfortunately it didn't work out, but he talks a lot about this, principle of interdependence. And I think this is really what we're seeing now. If you're in a telecom business, you're in the education business, because education will happen over the network. It's all connected to each other, and that's basically the future that we're going to see with energy. For example, the whole discussion about how people are changing from the internet to what we call the intergrid, you know, energy that goes into the grid, not just information. And then the whole change of how people think, you know, the millennial generation, the YouTube generation, is what's been referred to as Generation Re. They reuse, they repair, they recycle, they refuse, and they rethink. Generation Re. And there's tremendous potential here. I think if you're looking at the YouTube generation and then Generation Alpha, which is the really young ones, that's what they're going to be doing. And they come from developing countries. They don't come from Europe or from America. They're still there, but the large numbers are somewhere else. So to solve this problem, you know, food, terrorism, energy, basically it's going to be on the same exponential curve. And some people have called this the rise of sustainable capitalism. I'm not going to get into detail, because it would basically take the rest of the day to explain this, but you're welcome to Google it. But basically, it's those three different points. The past was about profit. The present is about profit, and some people, they have to admit that we're now more concerned with people, and the future will be people, planet, profit. That is possibly a total redesign of the stock market, for example, and the whole reason for making money. And companies like Unilever have started this, and Patagonia, and many other companies on the very same path. This is the book by Jeremy Rifkin, who was going to be here, called Zero Marginal Cost Society. I would recommend that you read this. Two more trends. As you know, offline is now the luxury. It's funny that when you're in a developing country, you feel happy to connect, because it's working, you know, you can get your emails and you can do things, but when you are fully connected, sometimes you're very happy if it doesn't work. In fact, now in developing countries, there's hotels that guarantee you cannot get on the internet. They charge extra not to connect, because then you're free from having to answer something, or free from having to communicate. And it's really funny when we look at this, you know, we used to say that being online is a luxury, because it's expensive, and that is still true in many countries, of course, as we know. But we have a mix of those two scenarios. This restaurant, for example, in New York, gives you 10% deduction on your dinner bill if you check in your mobile phone before you go eat. So you can be in the moment as it's been referred to. So very important, I think, for the rest of our discussion today, to determine the balance between humanity and technology, we can not just be worried. I mean, worry is only a minor motivational driver. You know, we worry for a while, and then we, you know, go and get drunk or something. You know, we can't think about the future by just being worried. We have to go beyond the fear of what is happening there. We have to try to find our way inside of this. And lastly, great story from Henry Ford, the car inventor. If Henry Ford had asked people what they wanted, they would have said, faster horses. Because that's all they knew were horses. And so it's very important, I think, for us as leaders, we must go beyond the obvious. So I'm going to ask you repeatedly today to go at least one step, if not two, not 10. You can leave that to us if you want. One or two steps beyond the obvious, because if you ask your people what they want, they will tell you the obvious, and you already know that. And some of them will tell you a little bit more. But go one step beyond the obvious requires foresight. So thanks very much for your time and attention. It's been a great pleasure to talk to you. Don't forget our website, futurediscussion.com, to leave comments, and we're monitoring that right now, or to use it on Twitter. So thanks very much, and let's get ready for the next panelist. Thank you.