 Good morning and welcome to the weekly market update with me. David Madden today's date is Monday the 14th of December 2020 and the time has just gone 12 o'clock GMT and it's been a fairly positive start to the European trading session The main kind of news has been Surprise surprise the UK and the European Union didn't reach agreement over the weekend the Sunday deadline was passed Cal Surprise But both sides said, you know, they're gonna go the extra mile to try and work out on an agreement Michelle Barnea the the EU's chief negotiator this morning Say that it's you know, it sees a way in which a deal can be achieved, but we've been hearing this in a rhetoric Redrick for a while Ultimately traders have taken that as a sign of traders have taken the Reactive thing to do is by thinking well talk to slow go on going therefore the silly possibility of a deal being achieved So European equity markets are higher across the board The pound starting is Is that performing on top of that? But we also have kind of chatter and speculation about a stimulus package from the US There's a 908 billion dollar. That's a bipartisan package. That's going to be introduced today There isn't a huge amount of optimism that is going to get it get achieved Gonna get support, but there is a bit of bipartisan support cross-party support So that's that boats. Well, also Steve Mnuchin the US Treasury Secretary Has also proposed a few days ago proposed a different stimulus package. So With that kind of in the talk in the in circulation that's kind of lifted sentiment over on the in the US As always what I'll do is I'll run through the week ahead article And then talk about the major markets and then look look at the major markets of the week because this week I am working a short week this week I would do I would mention a couple of other additional markets Which I ordinarily wouldn't really cover in this in this update kind of in lieu of my separate chart of the week video So I'll go to the week at the week ahead article now. I then go through the major indices Currencies and commodities So the week ahead the week ahead article can be found on our website Cmsaracus.com under insights and then news and analysis So tomorrow well overnight, we're going to hear the Chinese retail sales That's going to give us a good indication of domestic demand in China China's been bouncing back nicely in the wake of the COVID-19 crisis and These the this report could give us an indication of how well the economy is recovering probably bricks the the property crowd the and the state agent They're going to be They're going to be in focus tomorrow because they had half your numbers out. We have seen a fair bit of activity in the in the housing market in the last few weeks and months So their their update is going to be fairly interesting Tuesday tomorrow, we also have UK unemployment numbers Wednesday, we have first half number numbers from Dixon's car phone Electronic items and kind of anything that can be used for a home office has been a high demand in 2020 So that's likely to be affected in their update. The Fed reserve meeting is on is on Wednesday You know, we're likely to hear the usual commentary about how they're committed to keeping interest rates very low We'll also probably hear Calls from the policy from central bankers to say, you know to politicians, you know, we can't do this alone guys Can we have is there any possibility of a fiscal response? We hear the flash Manifact, you know the flash PMI reports From Germany and France on Wednesday, we've the Bank of England interstate decision on Thursday given that The Bank of England given that UK and political, you know The the turmoil of the the COVID-19 crisis the uncertainty in relation to the future relationship between the UK and the EU It's highly unlikely, you know, you know, all It's likely we're going to hear from the Bank of England, you know pledges to keep it pledges to keep monetary policy accommodative to the state of the UK economy FedEx the The delivery company they've numbers coming out second quarter numbers coming out on Thursday They're going to be of interest because given these been a huge surge in online shopping They become a good barometer for demand particularly on the one up to Christmas. We also have Nike Second quarter numbers coming out on Friday. They're they're they've been a very popular sports brand Simra scenario ties in with the whole Christmas retail sales scenario Which brings me on nicely to UK retail sales the report for November will be posted on Friday morning So when I run to now is the major indices starting off at the with the footsie with underush I'll go through the big indices go to the big front currency pairs a couple of commodities and then a few other markets I find interesting So the footsie with underush not too long ago Was was up at a nine-month high. We've retreated ever so slightly But the broader uptrend particularly of the last few months were basically since late October onwards It's still very much intact. So if we do press on higher from here with Kubrick, Newtara getting this zone here in a 6891 if you do have a pullback below the kind of six thousand five hundred area I Could potentially take us back down towards the kind of six thousand forward zone So a bit of consolidation around there, and if you go below that Excuse me, please keep an eye for this area here in a six thousand two hundred and fifty eight Excuse me. I'll take a look now. What's going on up in Germany on the DAX In relation to the DAX we can see here that it's had a like the footsie It's had a great run between late October and into November and December. It's been range bound The last few weeks, but we're sort of very much in that upward trend If you press on higher from here, we could look to retest kind of the recent We'll get the top end of the range in around thirteen thousand four hundred and sixty-two if you go beyond that We could then be looking at retesting will basically the all-time high Which is achieved in February just before the COVID-19 crisis kicked off Moves to the downside could find some support from this area here in around well just north of thirteen thousand It'll cut thirteen thousand thirty three. I should we go below that we could look at heading back down towards this blue line here the fifth of the moving average and The fifth of the moving average comes into play at 12,000 eight hundred and seventy seven I keep in mind there's been a few occasions in the last few weeks and months with the fifth of the moving average Active both as support and resistance. So metric has been important in the past It makes it more likely it'll be of importance in the future, although there are no guarantees the US markets like it like as like I mentioned and At the top of the video is I'll talk about a stimulus package whether it'll go through not as a different story But the fact that this has been spoken about as elevated us index futures. We're calling the essence that the The Dow Jones North it's going to open north of thirty thousand two hundred So we're currently expecting it to open around thirty thousand two hundred and seventy We're talking we're pretty much at or near all-time high territory So we're talking that the markets are clearly very bullish if you press on higher from here, you know tears You'll be looking out for thirty thousand three hundred four hundred and so on as the fourth because we are let's face it Heading just just about, you know looking upon Uncharted territory If you do have a bit of a pullback You can a thirty thousand big psychological number that could act as support a move below that could take us back down for this area here at the lows of late November in around twenty nine thousand Four hundred and sixty one and if you go below that, you know, we could be looking heading back down towards well south twenty nine the area of 29,000 down to around twenty eight thousand eight hundred and sixty eight. So this is all in here Looking over at the S&P 500 similar scenario we're kind of Not we're not too far away From all-time high territory, which is achieved last Wednesday if so if you kind of we're currently in around 3688 if you press on higher from here We could look at retesting the the all-time high in that area in around 3714 or 15 there they're about and if you go beyond that Cheers, we're looking up towards three thousand seven hundred and twenty thirty so one and so forth Any moves to the downside could if you know, so if you do take out last Friday's low We could take us back down towards this area here in around three thousand six hundred I don't move below that could take us down towards this area here in around well with the fifth The moving averages this blue line in a three thousand five hundred twenty nine down towards where this line here is in a three thousand five hundred and eleven Yet three thousand five hundred and eleven So take a look at now. What's going on the currencies starting off on Euro dollar So you're a dollar at a great one recently It's highest level since 2018 had a bit of a pullback. We've had a very bullish move on Thursday So we are moving higher a continuation of the kind of upward trend we've seen in the last few months So if you press on higher from here, and if you take out the highs of early December it could take us back up towards The one twenty three area this zone here, which was last seen in April of 2018 Move to the downside could find support in around here in a one-spot 20 58 a break below that could take us back down towards 120 it's kind of a big number for Euro dollar and even if you go below that you could then be heading down toward this zone here in 1923 Looking at pound dollar So there's been broad dollar weakness across the board and and even though there's been a lot of uncertainty in relation to the UK Future relationship with the European Union starting as broadly speaking held up fairly well Obviously at a fairly negative day on Friday just gone where I felt it was the lowest level since mid-November, but You can have quickly rebounded today We're still in the upward trend over the last few weeks and months if you press on higher from here We could be looking up heading up towards one spot 35 one spot 35 15 Which is and if you go beyond that we could be looking up heading up towards one spot 30 608 Now these levels the last saw one spot 35 15 but just over a year ago in mid December 2019 on the back of the Very sizable victory by the Conservative Party at the UK general election of last year And if you will be on those highs we could take us back up towards this area here in a one-spot 30 608 Moves to the downside keep an eye out for this blue line here the fifth at a movie average in a one-spot 30 160 We can see how it acted nicely as support was just below it On Friday just gone and on a few occasions in the last few weeks and months It has acted as both the resistance and support. So keep an eye out for the fifth at a movie average Coming on to commodities now taking a look at what's going on with gold market Gold has had not a pretty great run recently Obviously had an all-time high in August had a quite a sizable sell-off trade range bound for a bit had a leg lower It tried to kind of reclaim the highs of mid-September which you couldn't get to and really since early November onwards has been trading lower Coincidentally, you know coincidentally this is around the same time stock markets got a leg up because we've had the everything from Pfizer BioBioNTech the DERDA atrezenica Atrezenica offers university all the very different news about the vaccine stories So gold has been in kind of you know has been suffering as a result Traders even looking to taking on more risk. And that's why we've seen stocks probably speaking on a pretty good run the last few weeks So while we hold below the fifth of the movie average is blue line here in at 1873 It's likely we could see that the recent negative trend continue I feel you press on lower from here And if we could be looking at retesting the lows of late November in at one spot, sorry In a 1764 a break below that could take us down towards 1740 And if you go below that again, we could look at it back down towards 1700 now if you do manage to reclaim the fifth of the moving average We could then be looking at heading up towards the 1900 zone or just north of it the 100 a moving average in 1909 and we'd really need to be basically retaking the highs of early November in around 1965 this this high see this high here if you want to kind of shake off the recent negative trend and You know fall back into the wider bullish trend Take a look now. What's going on with the oil market start? I take a look at brain crude oil the cash market Sony I was only on Thursday just gone. We set a Fresh nine-month high for the for brain crude oil the cash market We've been the last we had a bit of a pullback on Friday, but we're higher again today We're north of $50 a barrel, which is kind of quite a bullish in itself If it continued to press or press on higher from here We could be looking at retesting the highs of early March in around 54 spot 28 Any moves that are downside could find support from this area here in around 48 and a move below that could take us back down towards The lows of early December in at 46 spot 81 And if you do have a deep move below that we could then like heading back down towards this blue line here The 50 moving average we can see in a few cases elected active resistance and support Not too long ago to keep an eye for that and the fifth day moving average comes into play in around $43.91 Now as I mentioned mentioned a couple of other Charts in this video to wouldn't usually usually cover because this would be the only video for this week I'll take a look at the Australian dollar versus the US dollar And this isn't this is an interesting one because the Australian dollar is often closely tied in what goes on in commodities Industrial metals and oils have been strong recently. It's considered to be a risk on the currency and it's been broad dollar weaknesses So with that, we've seen a decent move to the upside in the Aussie dollar. In fact, we're back up at Russia basically at levels Excuse me We're basically at levels last seen since June 2018 so we're in a strong upper trend If you can we're currently trading in around the 0th about 75 67 if you continue to move higher from here We could be looking at targeting the highs of June 2018 in around zero spot 76 76 And if you go beyond that, we could have been looking at heading up toward the kind of zero spot 78 area Any moves to the downside could find support in around the kind of zero spot 74 And a move below that could take us back towards the world this blue line here Well, also this yellow line as well One of the moving average and the fifth and moving average seem to be converging on each other in around zero spot 72 53 zero spot 72 31 and you know the last few weeks and months We can see that those metrics and a few occasions have acted as you know both support and resistance And of course, you know, if you have a major move below that We could head down toward this zone here in around zero spot 70 31 down to zero spot 70 And lastly and also Tying in with the Australian dollar. I'll talk about copper. I mentioned at the top of the video about China's economy is rebounding. They're very mineral hungry It's needed for the kind of the rapid expansion of the economy and it was only on Friday just gone We actually saw a copperhead a bit of a fresh seven-year high Yes, it was basically its highest level seen since February 2013 so the copper market is in a strong upward trend If you continue to press on higher from here, we could be looking at targeting the highs of January 2013 in around 377 cents a pound Take a look at the price action recently So the price action would suggest the last couple of days It seems to me to ever solve slightly other be potentially taking a breather We could see a bit of reversal just because we've had a very bullish candle on Thursday We had an all-time high on the friday, but but the market managed to You know closed below where it opened now It isn't an over, you know, it's far from a bearish engulfing But the fact that it hit an all-time it hit a multi-year high and then closed well below where it opened And as a relatively long week And the range of the days been relatively long It would suggest to me that there's a bit of a decision going on That could mean we trade sideways. It could mean we trade In the upper trade at a more gradual pace, but today's range has been very small So it seems to me that's a bit of a decision going on in copper So if you press on higher from here, we could be looking at targeting 377 cents a pound A move lower could take us back down towards the kind of the 340 area here seen in late november And even if you have a fairly sizable Pullback we could head back down towards this area that this blue line here at 320 cents a pound the 50 moving average We can see how it might actually support in early november That's all from this from this video. Thank you for listening and have a good trading week