 Hello, everyone. Welcome to Looking to the East. I'm your host for the show, Steve Zercher. I'm a professor and Dean at Kansai Gaida University. This is our inaugural show for 2022. I want to wish you all a very happy new year. And I decided to start this year with our roundup show. This is the third time now I've done this where I've had several guests from Kansai Gaidae and also from Japan as well to talk about current events that affect Japan and the United States relationship. I'm very happy to welcome all four of them back. I have S. White Kim, who is a professor of political science diplomacy in particular at Kansai Gaidae University, and Johnson port to who's also a professor at Kansai Gaidae in political science. I have Paul Scott, who is emeritus professor and also teaching. He lives in Paris, France. He's joining us as well with the European perspective and last but not least we have my good friend Jerry Mistecchi who is a partner at Kitahama partners also a Kansai Gaidae graduate from the Asian studies program. So thank you all for joining in the show you guys I really appreciate it. Yeah, absolutely so the topic for this show is to take a look at what transpired in the last year in 2021. So when I was thinking about the various topics obviously the ongoing pandemic has affected all aspects of economic activity and political activity. So let's talk about that. Currently, as with most of the rest of the world, we have the Omicron virus in Japan, even though the levels in Japan are far lower than they are like they are in the United States and certainly Paul where you are in France I've been reading that the numbers are quite high. But any comments from you on the effect of the pandemic on over the last year, actually two years now. And maybe a sense of where we're going with this going forward maybe Paul I'll start with you since you've been watching what's going on in France now for the last two or three months. So it's interesting over 300,000 cases today in France and for the last week have been about 300,000. The government has the Macron government was who was up for a reelection in in April with serious challenges has taken a, an approach, different, I think, than in the United States and in Japan definitely. And there is a there is a vaccine mandate, excuse me mandated. What's called the pass sanitaire, which I guess is a vaccine passport and the French like to protest, but there's very high compliance on that and that vaccine rates for adults is is over 90%. Wow, that's higher than Japan. I guess well you know it's it's everything is how it's reported and, you know, when you start at age 15 and calculate, you know, the numbers of vaccinations it's big basically the most 90% of the adult population, and the French government is really looking at not just the economic costs, but the generational costs students going, you know, have to go to school. It's no good to isolate people. And as we know in Japan suicide rates are up. I think the key is in school is that is extraordinarily high. There's that, there's that. I don't know how long lasting the damage will be, but there's a social impact, which will be I think more devastating than than Omicron you know for the Omicron again I don't want to talk too much 300,000 infections but the death rate is 0.05%. So, so when governments and this is including Japan is going to declare this an endemic instead of a pandemic. It's a public health issue, but an incredibly political issue as well. So, I went to Rome for Christmas. Oh, you traveled. I went to Rome for Christmas. Yeah. I had to, I had to show a PC. I had to show an antigen test. And I've been vaccinated three times. It was, it was, it was lonely. So, so I'm involved in this, I'm sorry, go ahead to Francis. No, no, no, no. So, so I'm very concerned about maybe one casualty of COVID is the politicization of public information. Yeah, that's definitely the case. Go ahead, Johnson. I have to tell on that a lot of political scientists thought that this last election in last October could have been a critical juncture. And it would have been a critical juncture if more than 70% of the population had actually of who could have voted actually went out to go and vote. It seemed like a lot of people were angry about the COVID response. And what the LDP did was, was basically incredibly savvy politically savvy is that they seem to have got the public to believe that we were in a post COVID era, like so the big kind of the population was drawn down. And as a result, only about 55% of the population went out, went out to vote so it wasn't a mandate the same people that voted in the previous election ended up voting but the people that could have gone out to vote actually didn't. We have the status quo so it wasn't a critical juncture. I think the decisions, a lot of these health decisions, I think we're politically, we're political calculations. Yeah, yeah. Go ahead, Jerry. I'm sorry. No, no problem. I think that 2021 was the year of the vaccine right I mean I think that that's the year that not only in Japan, but I think worldwide people got wide, you know, widespread access to vaccines which I think is a very good thing. And I think it's also the year that as was mentioned earlier, we're getting to the point this is not so much a pandemic as it as it's going to be sort of an endemic and endemic type of disease which is going to be with us for a very long time and is going to be manageable and I think 2021 is the year where we found out that despite the spread of, you know, Delta variant, Omicron variant, everything else, that we now have medicines, vaccines, therapeutics, so the things that are hopefully in the future going to keep this from being nearly as deadly as it was in 2020 so I think that's very good news and here in Japan, despite whatever you know, political machinations. The fact is that Japan has done extremely well, numbers wise, as far as infections and deaths and so you know there is there is some, there's a bit of a silver lining perhaps. Yeah, I agree. So in Japan with decisions are really slow to be made. But once they're made, then it's really really efficient so that's that's, that's a, that's a positive so there's there's a lot of, there's a lot of risk averse I think also, in addition to the calculations that I noted, absolutely. One thing noticeable in Japan has been that there's few politicization of the vaccine issue or lockdown that shows that Japan has remained as a quiet society without very revolting resistance against government state actions. And in terms of controlling the pandemic, it has been fairly successful. Just before and since the Olympic Games, it Olympic was kind of tantalizing success. There was a kind of big worry about the danger of super spread events during Olympic Games that didn't take place. And since the inauguration of Kishida Prime Ministry, Prime Minister and the Japanese government has taken fairly direct Korean approach banning all foreigners, non essential foreigners from entering to Japan. So we should wait and see because the arrival of Omicron has been delayed in Japan, because this tight control against foreigners. But just start, it just has started spreading. Nonetheless, the vaccination, particularly boost of vaccine has been delayed. Japan offers boost of vaccine after seven months after the second shot. It's a big chance that the danger of spreading of Omicron. So we should wait and see what will unfold from now on, because just number of the Omicron spread has been increasing from last week. It may be a successful case. I very much hope so. But we should still wait and see. You know, Edelman trust barometer and I've done a little work for Edelman. It's very, very influential. They came out with a report saying that the United States is in a is in a is in a is in a, excuse me is in a cold civil war. I was shocked when I read that statement and that politicization in the United States seems to be becoming sharper, and you know that spills over. And I agree exactly with what my colleagues were saying is what's interesting about Japan is is the dampening of that. I'll use the word dampening I won't say that it doesn't exist. I think I can only remember one protest and it was a bunch of odd characters up in Tokyo and they were protesting vaccinations along with 5G. You know the latest cellular technology somehow those two things were wrapped up together and I even though it was reported. I don't think it was taken very seriously it was a minority for those viewers of the show are not familiar with Japanese culture. This is a mask wearing culture it has to do with allergies. So every year, 40 or 50% of the population is wearing masks to prevent this allergies. And today, even though there's no mandate for this. If you get on the trains in Japan, it's 100% compliance, when you're on the streets it's 98% compliance it's really remarkable. How the Japanese public I guess through peer pressure not so much through government leadership has embraced wearing the masks, and I think that's a part of this, the miracle, you know the the Olympics, the, the rates for 25,000 a day. After a month, it just went down to almost nothing it was like a, almost a miracle, and I really haven't seen a good explanation as to why the Japanese infection rates just went down to below 50 a day mask. I mean, I think you hit it on the head I think if there's one thing that that, you know, the message from Japan to the rest of the world is masks work. The vaccination rates in Japan are similar or less than a lot of other developed, you know, countries and the difference here is that everyone wears masks everywhere. It's just, it's, as you noted, it's a cultural thing but I also think Japan has has the people in the culture they've stepped up, you know, to the challenge of this and I think that it's a, again, it is something that everyone else around the world can learn from vaccines are going to get us out of this we need people to be vigilant you need people to wear masks need people to, you know, do things in order to stop the spread and that's not just vaccination so I think I look I don't know that Japan has done everything perfectly but I don't think it's incorrect to say that Japan is one of the best places to have written out any pandemic and while I also understand that the, the border measures have been very strict and they certainly have within the country. The restrictions are much less than then in other places such as Europe and other places so you know I think on balance I mean you know that knock on wood we'll see what happens from here, but overall Japan has done quite well. Yes, that's work master grade and they're also wonderful for no makeup days which is often why I use them. So if I have asked some of the students why they choose to stay home because it comes I got eyes under a hybrid policy right now so the students basically can choose whether to come in person or not. And many of the female students say well if I feel like putting makeup on I'll come to school but if not the mask goes on and you know, I just stay at home. One thing I also wanted to talk about was you guys have already touched on it with the reelection of the Jiminto yet again and basically Japan has been under one party control since the 1950s other than a few brief periods. So the election forecast was that they would probably win but not do as well as they actually ended up doing. And as a result of the election we have a brand new Prime Minister. His name is Kushida, and he's been in power now for a number of months so any comments you guys on on the election or the leadership of our new Prime Minister here in Japan Prime Minister Kushida. Can I mention just to dovetail off of what Professor Kim was talking about is looking looking around outside of Japan a lot of protest and a lot of anger and some people wondering why are Japanese citizens not angry at you know at a lot of the gas which were made early on. And one of the arguments I've heard that is, it's not my argument, but it's by somebody else that I know, and she's testing it but it's on this manufactured Mukanshin, or manufactured indifferent so making Japanese politics, basically boring like trying to manufacture this apathy. And it seems to have worked right so if you actually look historically across elections in Japan after the post war period, voting rates were pretty high, right in the in the high 60s sometimes even 70s, and then from the 90s it be actually 93 was the last time and then it dropped pretty low, then you had higher rates again in with the 2009 with the election of the DPJ, and following Fukushima it's dropped back down so it seems to be working in the favor the LDP did not really get the hit. The hit for for COVID, but that might change we're going to have a new election for the, for the upper house which is the most insignificant house among in Japanese politics but we should see what's what's going to happen. You know when I first heard from the great resignation, because of my background I thought yeah of course that's that's you know a kid on me, that's to be resigned, and I thought that's a very much part of a Japanese cultural trait. You know, shogunai, shigateganai, there's no there's no way around it, and the resignation, and yeah I agree with you completely that, but it's the weakness of the opposition as well. And perhaps, you know 250, what's the LDP won 259 seats. And the political party that increased it's, it's, it's innovation party was Ishinokai right innovation party based in Osaka. So I'm curious whether or not Japan like some other countries is also showing a center right swing. One thing I'd like to catch up. Okay, sorry, is that there's a external factor that has been awakening Japanese population and establishment alike, which is the challenge imposed by the assertive China in South China Sea and East China Sea. America and Japan and Australia had tried has been trying to have been trying to tackle it all together along with India. Under the name of free and open Indo Pacific. But this trend has also impacted upon the last general election. The LDP did not perform superbly. It could retain its power base. And as Scott noted, noteworthy development was the advancement the progress of the Japan Innovation Party Osaka Ishinokai. If you combine this Osaka Ishin, I mean innovation party together with the LDP, they can achieve the two third majority required for change of constitution. So it's really issue to wait and see and then Prime Minister Kishida have stated that he would pursue a project to achieve the revision of a constitution. In addition to that acquiring a capability military capability to launch preemptive strike to enemy basis if they are ready to launch attack to Japan. So these are very much noteworthy changing trend that is taking place within Japanese politics in conjunction with the change in external environment. Two points on that one, the LDP did win 261 seats. So they had they had lost the number, but they still retain their absolute majority and then they have Kometo right or the clean government party, whatever it is in English. But the margin of victories in these in principally the winner take all elections was was the margin was fairly slim so it wasn't, you know, a lot of people, you know punishing the LDP and then going to the Constitution Democratic Party or it was they were either not voting or they were voting to the to the safe Osaka LDP chapter called Ishinokai or the innovation party, the innovation party. The second thing I want to say about the China issue the China issue actually helps the LDP. I mean the LDP's main thing or actually under Abe was Abe's Abe's baby was constitutional change, and he was an extremely powerful Prime Minister probably the most powerful Prime Ministers maybe in the post war period. You got Nakasone and all they're in there I don't I'm not sure about that but certainly powerful. And he's a Prime Minister mean, meaning he has a lot more power than let's say a US president. And he had a lot of support within the LDP, yet he still couldn't push through constitutional change. Right, that means that probably the majority of the population still doesn't want it. One constitutional change to happen would be my guess. The thing that worries me about China is something that we started off earlier in the program was that China has China's GDP growth rate has begun to decline. And that's what makes me worry so as the as China's economy is growing and growing and growing, the cost of going to war increase increase increase and as it goes down, then maybe the Chinese Communist Party is going to have to figure out some way to some other way to legitimize itself. So there's what we call window opportunity Chinese growth would continue but would be eroded within 10 years. She and Chinese leading Communist Party might want to achieve some goal, such as including the unification with Taiwan, which has raised a lot of lambels on the side of Japan and United States and then now as Stephen is keen, we have new ambassador from United States will arrive to Japan. Right, yes, one of the things I wanted to touch on but but before we get to that, one more general question having to do with the relationship between the Japan United States. Guys, we've gone 22 minutes into our show and we have not mentioned Trump. The last shows of course that was topic a. So I want to ask you, now that we have a new president, Biden, looking back across the last year has the relationship between the United States and Japan changed in any material way under the new leadership in the White House or is it pretty much the same in your interview. I mean, I did Steve I would say on that that I think that I don't think it's just Japan I think Japan and a lot of countries have started to question whether or not the United States going forward is going to be a, you know, a reliable partner on the United States. And I think that that sort of, you know, goes to the previous conversation I think you're seeing increased defense spending in Japan. I think you're seeing Japan trying itself to create its own, you know, alliances, I think you're seeing trying to create a, you know, credible that you know deterrent to China so I think if there's been a big change I think the Japanese government and many other governments around the world are glad that the US government has achieved a bit more normalcy, but I don't know. I mean, I think that what happened with Trump sort of shook people's faith in how, you know, the US system and the possible future and how reliable a partner they would be in the case of a serious conflict. Interesting. Others agree with that. So, even in Japan, among the establishment on the defense and foreign music side. They are always concerned remain concerned about not just necessarily return with Donald Trump, but some similar kind type of agendas with America first type of approach after Biden. And that is one reason why they are promoting the various other military capability and other hedging approaches to ready for the change of US leadership from Biden to more Trump type of leaders. Yeah, the American America seems, you know, absolutely obsessed with internal domestic politics. So it's always, you know, my triangle, it would be no skill will and finances at the at the international level and I just don't. And I think people are waiting, but I'm not sure how long, you know, how long it can waiting for the 2024 election and then what happens with that, and we're going to wait till 2029. It's not the worst case possibilities. So, it's a difficult time. I think uncertainty, no one likes uncertainty markets don't like it, and politics certainly doesn't like it is too much uncertainty for the US I think, my own opinion. The bureaucrats that I've talked to here in Japan. A lot of them, honestly told me that they felt the US lost a bit of credibility for a time. And for the next four years they expect a little bit more predictability but they're still kind of wait and see. They're not really sure what's going to, what's going to happen what's going to unfold with with the US. Okay, guys we're running out of time but as s why I mentioned we do finally have a ambassador after I think it's been a couple of years since Haggerty Jerry and I both met him several times through the ACCJ he's now a senator from Tennessee but we have Rahm Emanuel coming in before the show we estimate he'll come into power be in the country in the next week or so. And we've discussed his nomination and the political aspect of that. He didn't win position unanimously, but he won't got enough votes that were Democrats who voted against him and Republicans who voted for including Haggerty voted for a Rahm Emanuel's nomination to the ambassador so maybe just quickly. Any impression so you guys excited that we have an ambassador again from the United States. Hey, Steve absolutely. Well you know I look I worked in Chicago I'm an Illinois attorney and look I think that he has the opportunity to be a very effective ambassador I know that there were some commentators who have you know express concern well he you know he didn't have the full of you know the senator, you know Congress etc. I don't think that's what's important I think what's most important in any you know diplomat I've you know dealt with numerous. You know diplomats and ambassadors going back many many years the most important thing for the ambassador to Japan from the Japanese perspective is how close is this person to the president. And Rahm Emanuel is very very close and I think that given that he will have the opportunity to be very effective we'll see you'll need to have good people around it. And he's effective with the floor with the, with the people from the former Obama administration, who are powerful in the Biden administration. So he's got great connections. Absolutely. Johnson any any perspective on this or we just have a last minute or so or are you guys excited we have a new ambassador now. Yeah I'll just say what GD said. Okay. I still believe that ambassadors would operate under the instruction from the Washington DC. He cannot become free willing free Madonna. Although he's a political asset will be greatly appreciated by Japanese counterpart, but he he's boundary will be a bit constrained than when he was in Chicago. That would be important point. He will have to deal with or kept keeping mine. So you're asking how diplomatic will he be. He has a reputation for being very forthright. Yeah, how to balance between the two Japanese political leaders would discipline him to very quietly. One man not making provocative at all, utilizing unique Japanese way. Then he would realize that it's not like in Washington DC or Chicago politics. Now, I think Jerry and I should have an opportunity to meet him. The ambassador usually comes down to consign and the ACCJ consign hosts him in one former fashion. We're the ACCJ consign is very close to the consulate in Osaka. So I guess we can look forward to that Jerry and yes in the next six months or so when he makes his way down to consign. Hi guys that is a wrap thank you so much for starting the new year off on my looking to the show with this retrospective I really appreciate it. Enjoyed your comments. I'll be doing a show with on Japan and the immigration issue employment issue Japan also like the United States knows beginning to experience doesn't have enough workers for the amount of jobs that exists in this country so that'll be the topic in a couple of weeks again on looking to the east so once again thank you all very much guys for participating happy new year to all of you viewing this program and I'll see you in a couple of weeks. Bye everyone.