 Welcome traders to the first weekly market trade analysis session with me, Patrick Manolio for 2023. I would note today I have a hard stop here because we have inflation data coming out in 30 minutes. So today's going to be a bit of a quick fire session and next week we'll expand the opportunity set in terms of the charts we're assessing and the instruments there. So before we jump into today's setups let's quickly review the disclaimer most pertinent to today's discussion is the fact that Houston opinions expressed by me in this presentation are solely mine, they're not indicative or representative of those held by Tick Mill the UK or Tick Mill Europe Limited. Very quick introduction to myself for those of you who are here for the first time, after I graduated from the University I left with, I joined the city plc consulting firm and ultimately left with some colleagues and went on to successfully co-found an exit a consulting startup focused on C-suite executive search for technology businesses. Essentially I have print row C to the dot com bubble witnessing people make and lose a fortune in the markets sometimes quite literally overnight so I decided to explore my curiosity for markets with some capitals play with and some time on my hands. I started day trading the S&P 500 or probably more appropriately at that stage day gambling after some early beginners luck I racked up some pretty solid gains however as is often the case my beginners luck ran out and as the market phase changed I began to average down into losing positions giving back all my gains and ultimately experiencing a significant six figure hit to my personal capital say that was a gut wrenching and sobering experience is really an understatement. So I had to stand back and figure out if it was feasible for me to make a living from the market so I decided to get serious about trading and sort out a mentor with an excellent trading track record working with my mentor for a period of 18 months to two years it was a time during which I really upped my technical game in terms of researching developing it says to be back and forward testing strategies that crucially suits my personality all of which were underpinned by a rigorous risk management approach most importantly during the creative mentorship I significantly developed my mental game and probably most importantly of all I made the more to share shift from being a highly goal orientation individual focused on financial gains to become impurely process orientated so what does that actually mean well it means I had stopped focusing on what I could make from the markets and start focusing solely on managing my mindset to allow me to consistently execute my trading strategy oftentimes in the face of negative feedback from the markets in the form of losing trades but once you become process orientated and have a professional trading mindset and you understand the true nature of trading simply being a numbers game in which you're playing the probabilities you lose that emotional investment and hellish emotional roller coaster of living and dying by the outcomes of individual trades so I'm no longer concerned the outcome of individual trades or even a small string of trades my focus is on the next hundred trades because I know if I focus on excellence in execution my edge will demonstrate itself over an extended series of outcomes a multi strategy approach has delivered profitable annual returns since 2008 since 2013 I've also been managing investor capital through a managed account service again delivering annual positive returns since 2010 I've minted hundreds of private traders of all experience levels from complete novices to former CME floor traders in developing the technical and mental skills to reap consistent returns from the markets in addition to my fund management and mentoring I'm a resident market expert exclusively providing market and trade analysis to tick mill clients I provide an in-depth daily market outlook breaking down fundamental technical drivers for the trading day ahead I also provide daily technical trade setup videos which I share through the tick mill trading view accounts and I'll post a link for that at the end of my presentation I also run tick mills E-mini strategy Facebook group where I post a daily trade plan giving my pre-market thoughts for the cash trading session ahead in New York I give my bias for the day ahead in specific action areas where I'm looking to engage the market these pre-market plans have offered close to 6000 points of profit since we launched the group in April 2021 the second tick mill strategy group I run is for traders who really want to take their trading to the next level the tick mill futures telegram trading group is a real-time environment where on a daily basis I share in-depth insights analysis and real-time trades I also provide live market commentary during the opening hour of the cash trading session in New York where traders can essentially see in real time how I dissect the market and identify asymmetric trading opportunities these sessions act as a platform helping traders to develop a professional consistent approach to navigating markets and most importantly those mental mind games that must be mastered if you're going to make it as a profitable market operator okay so that gives you a flavour of where it is I'm coming from we are going to jump into the charts as always if you have a question just drop it into the chat box and I will come back to any questions at the end of my presentation equally if you have an instrument you'd like me to take a look at if I have time today I really want to wrap this session up within the next 15 to 20 minutes so I can prepare for that cpi release but I will cover off any instruments you want me to take a look at if you specify the time frame as well that's helpful equally if I don't get time to do that today I'll what I'll do is if uh if someone does have specific instrument I'll uh I'll record a trading view video and that'll be posted to the trading view the technical trading view site and I'll give you the uh a link for that like I say at the end of the session so starting with the s&p 500 I have been long uh since the holidays really and and closed out some positions for for about 100 points of upside earlier this week I am I'm along again here heading into this cpi release ultimately what I'm looking for my interim upside objective for this move is up into this 40 4040 4070 area from there I'm going to be looking for some momentum divergence to develop to give us an opportunity for a corrective move to play out likely we retest back into the 3980 3990 area before extending again to complete a bullish sequence here to the upside and I'm looking for a move up to 4100 area as the the primary upside objective for this move now obviously this comes with a caveat today because we have the cpi release coming out now if cpi comes in softer than expected I would expect a pretty risk move up to the upside to test into that initial target zone however if the cpi comes in hotter than expected so something close something above 6.6 percent on a on an annualized basis then we could see a pretty dramatic repricing of risk and I would be anticipating that we could be looking for a sell-down back into that 3900 level on the downside but from there again I'm going to anticipate some stabilisation to come into the markets I don't think we will we'll immediately roll over there but if we do take out that 3900 on a closing basis then we'll be looking back into the 3845 area as the next downside objective so you have to be cognisant of the market response to the cpi if we look back over recent releases so certainly we can think if we go to the daily chart here let's just below this view a sensor type of scale of movement this was this was our december cpi release so we traded from 40 23 up to 41 79 so about 150 points of market response there equally then we had the october cpi so 3500 up to 3700 so 200 a 200 percent sorry a 200 point move there and then we had the november cpi again 3750 up to 3965 so again 200 points so what you should be thinking in terms of potential reaction today if and when I talk about a reaction the market is only likely to really have a significant reaction if we have a print that is either above 6.6 on the upside or is is below 6.4 6.3 on the downside then we can expect these outside reactions so what you want to factor then is we're currently trading 4000 on the e-mini scp 500 so we can think we could trade up 41 50 on a really soft print that would be a bullish reaction to the upside to the downside we could be thinking about 38 50 if it comes in hotter than expected just going on those three prior months of of market reaction so those are some levels levels to be cognizant of if we come outside of market expectations if we come in line or slightly softer then we can expect to grind up into that target zone that I mentioned of the 40 50 40 70 area and from there I expect we do then get some consolidation from a decent rally here start the year so some consolidation before then basing to put in the an excellent to the upside tutorial at 41 level now like I say if we if markets come in if this if the print comes in hotter than expected and we start to meaningfully reprice to the downside I'm not really going to get too bearish unless we take out this 3700 level on the downside we take that level out then we could be heading heading to the downside in a more meaningful fashion but for now above 3700 I'm still looking for some upside targets to be achieved before we see the next leg to the downside so moving to the NASDAQ and again bullish setup here in the NASDAQ let's just put in some targets using the equality objective so we have this swing low into the swing high and our current low of 10 10761 we are targeting a move to 12616 so what I'm looking for what I anticipate is that we could see a pullback we haven't had that pullback yet in terms of the NASDAQ but any dips at this stage should be we should be looking for an opportunity to get in on the long side let's just get an interim target here using the four-hour equality objective so I've been looking for a move now into this 11720 and then from there I've been looking for a correction equal in scope and scale to what we saw in the base move here out out of the low so anything up into this 11750 look for pullbacks then to find support back into 11360 area and then from there we look to engage on the long side and our target like I say is 12616 so plenty of scope for this to move on the upside in terms of the NASDAQ just want to to my mind anyway I've been looking for that corrective move something similar in scope and scale to this initial pullback and then we want to engage on the long side tells me move up to that 12616 objective the YM or the Dow Jones obviously has been the outperformer heading into the back end of last year based on the its relative growth sorry its relative value-weighting in terms of the components the stocks that are in the Dow Jones so again what we're looking for here at the moment now let me just draw in target that I'm using so any move through on the daily timeframe here any close through 34616 sets up initially the monthly projected range resistance 35500 and then on to 127 extension of this consolidation period which gives us an upside objective of 35878 at this stage in terms of anticipating any corrective move or deeper corrective move sorry what I've been looking for would be a break back through the 32800 let me just blow this chart up actually guys so it's easy for you to see and I'll give you the downside target where we would be looking to re-engage on the long side so if this inflation print today comes a little bit hotter than expected let's get this tool working we will look for a pullback now let me guys we will look for a pullback into 31690 from there we also have monthly projected range support and the backside of this trend channel resistance to potential actor support so like I say if but if we get a negative surprise here today we look for this move to develop and then from there we'll be watching the bullish reversal patterns to re-engage on the long side looking for that extension up into our target zone which initially is going to be into that 35878 level equally like I say any close through 34650 I've been encouraged then on the long side to again target that 35878 as the next upside objective moving to the DAX still seeing some real relative strength in terms of the DAX let's just go to the multi-chart view here so I'm looking for the DAX to test this weekly high-volume node now 15500 that also coincides with the 200 extension of this consolidation phase so we're breaking out here so what I've been looking for our pullbacks now into anything that tests into the daily and weekly projected range resistance 161 extension of a consolidation any pullback then in a three-wave move it gets us back into the 14600 area I want to be a buyer there looking for that upside extension into our target zone of 15500 equally any move into that 15500 I would I've been watching for bearish momentum divergence to set up for a pullback to develop but for now any three-wave corrective move back into our 14680 area watch with bullish reversal patterns to engage on the long side and like I said I'm going to target that weekly high-volume node just just about 15500 and Nikkei so what we're looking at the Nikkei here slightly weaker performance relative to the other equity indexes I'm looking for an equality objective versus this this current swing structure let me just blow up the daily chart so you can get a clear review of what I'm targeting so we are looking for versus this move from the highs here into the lows in October we have an equality objective down at 24,000 just below 24,900 so if we move to the intraday trading time frame and look at the technical setup here what we can see is we have the potential for a five-wave sequence to play out so we have wave one two we've potentially completed a wave three low here and we've traded into the yearly pivot at 26,500 so I'm looking for any break back through this trend channel support now 26,200 there's an opportunity on the downside we are targeting 24,890 that's just scale this chart a little bit so this is our daily target 24,890 now more often than not the minimum downside objective for that wave five sequence will be a five equals one so our wave one to the downside from our potential wave four highs so at a minimum we will be looking for 25,400 if we can break through this trend channel support and the other target we can use as well for that fifth wave extension obviously we have our equality objective 24,890 but we look for a one to seven extension which broadly coincides with that wave one target so again thinking about 25,300 there but noteworthy we have that one six one extension which is another regular or frequent downside objective for a wave five extension to the downside coming in 24,900 so just above our equality objective at 24,800 so those are the downside targets if we take out the support here back through 26,000 on the Nikkei moving to the nifty as you'll remember from the back end of last year nifty has been the stellar outperformer it's the only index that has made new cycle highs post the post the pandemic advance so what i'm looking for now is an area to re-engage on the long side with the nifty still have a target on the upside versus the swing low at 16,700 we are looking for that 19,680 on the weekly we have that one one to seven extension of this potential wave four consolidation so again just so you can start to think in terms of seeing these patterns yourself that this three-way corrective move which to from a sequence perspective satisfies a wave four cycle low and then we're looking to our fifth wave extension up into firstly that one to seven extension at 19,500 and then we have that equality objective 19,680 we can get through there then we'll be thinking about that one six one extension above 20,000 into that 20,695 so we've got some chunky upside objectives to play for in terms of the nifty so let's try and see if we can identify potential entry point now one of the methods i use is a symmetry swing calculation so what i'm anticipating here is that this last leg of decline before our last five-wave sequence you can clearly see a nice five-wave move here so we have one two this is going to be our three four and our five we're now in a corrected phase so what i've been looking for now we technically we have a one two three four and we could get a five here that could complete into that 17,630 level also weakly projected ratio four and we have that high volume note there on the four hour time frame so we would be certainly aren't we watching this test here into that just below the 17,700 level for bullish reversal patterns to engage on the long side looking for that extension up back through prior cycle highs just below 19,000 and then on to our first target zone of 19,500 equally what i've been watching is any break of this current trend channel resistance so any move back through 18,380 let's say would be a momentimentary to the upside tilting a retest and break of those prior cycle highs how we do for time to 20 okay guys i'm going to uh i'm going to move this on to quickly look at the dollar obviously whatever when i'm analyzing the dollar you can basically use this dollar analysis as inversely for the the dollar majors obviously euro sterling the ozzy kiwi etc are going to be doing the inverse of what i anticipate is going to happen to the dollar what i'm looking for today the potential for today is that we get a downside spike in the dollar into test the 101 90s 102 level i've got the 127 extension of this potential wave 4 consolidation again just so you can start to visualize this for yourselves we have a three wave corrective move which satisfies potential for a wave 4 to the to the upside of wave 4 correction and from that wave 4 high 102 18 is the 127 extension so i'm watching for any move in here watch for bullish reversal patterns we've got some potential nice intraday momentum divergence here so if price makes that new low into that 102 handle is that 102 area that roughly coincides with the euro testing 108 the sterling probably into 123 the ozzy probably towards the 70 handle so any move there that gets rejected sharply i will be looking to fade this current set of dollar weakness looking for at least a three wave corrective move to retest current wave 4 high potential wave 4 high of 105 40s if i just pull up the euro quickly just so you can visualize that the alternative so the scenario i'm looking for here in the euro is a spike up into that 108 that gets rejected we've got some nice momentum divergence developing and then i'm looking for a corrective move back into 104 15s in terms of the euro quickly here sterling a similar scenario i'm not watching for resistance we've got cluster here daily monthly and weekly projected range resistance just coming in above 123 any rejection from there with i would be looking to engage on the short side looking for move back down into the 117 handle equally the ozzy quickly into a test of the 70 look for a three wave corrective move back into the potential support here at the 66 30s before we start the next leg to the upside i'll be updating all of these charts guys in the coming days once we get the cpr release out of the way uh and going into this year i am net net bearish the dollar but i think we need to see a correction first before we can meaningfully re-engage and redistribute shorts in the dollar and uh and look to buy some of these uh these risk currencies in terms of euro sterling and uh and the ozzy i've had a request for silver i'll give you a quick view on silver let's take a look here silver is currently getting towards a test of the 25 level that's the weekly projected trend channel resistance i would anticipate a pullback from there so if my view on the dollar is correct that we're going to see a bit of a pullback in terms of the dollar i look for a test up into the 25 then i look for a correction back into support around 2140s before we get the next extension of potential breakout in terms of silver silver and gold i am bullish on this year but i'm timing my entries and i'm going to be uh i'll be updating where i'm looking to get in there in terms of gold let's just quickly pull up the chart uh you'll get a sense of what i'm looking at i'm looking for gold to test up into uh just above 1900 before we get a pullback and then i'll be looking to reload for the next extension i am anticipating this year that gold will actually make new cycle highs but again i'll add further updates and details to that in next week's session where we can extend extend the time here in here we're running uh 225 so guys i'm going to wrap this up here but for those that are interested in terms of the telegram or facebook group you can request access to the facebook group through the link i'm posting in the chat now and i will also post that trading view link with me so you can follow along my updates in terms of those daily trade videos that i post thanks chris happy new year to you too so there's the trading view link guys i'm going to wrap this session up here i know it's been a bit of a whistle stop tour today we'll we'll expand on things next week but follow along in terms of the daily trade uh trade videos that i'll be posting certainly there's going to be i'm anticipating some significant updates coming in the next couple of days as we get this response to the potential cpi prints uh coming either hotter or softer than expected and for those who are interested in the uh facebook group just send a request to access there and i'll add you to the group and i'll in there you can receive further details about how you can access the telegram group as well as always traders plan the trade trade the plan and most importantly manage your risk until next week thanks very much