 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network NFL win totals are now posted at Fandall sportsbook for this upcoming year Which means we've got a lot to dig into 32 teams have win totals up at Fandall sportsbook And as mentioned as we've been discussing for agency I do have my own model as well where I have projected win totals for each team Which means we can compare those to the market and try to identify spots where there could potentially be value Over at Fandall sportsbook We're gonna do for today is dig into those initial win totals and outline five spots Where my numbers de-vaped in the market and four of those I want to bet right now to lock them in before things could potentially change Throughout the office is so today digging into NFL win totals of Fandall sportsbook and letting you know which ones I'm targeting right now. Welcome on into covering the spread. That's right here on the Fandall podcast network and Fandall research My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a managing editor of digital media for a Fandall research here to break down my thoughts on the opening 2024 NFL win totals over a Fandall sportsbook and let you know where I'm seeing value for This upcoming year will dive into all that here in just one second first I wanted to remind you we do have some MLB betting talk daily over on the Fandall research podcast feed That is the solo shot our daily MLB podcast I go through my top props of the day talked about a couple of strikeout props for today and a home run prop And of course talks in DFS as well So if you want some thoughts on each day's MLB slate Make sure you're subscribed to the Fandall research podcast feed to get the solo shot as it goes up each and every week Day that show is also over on Fandall TV plus if you watch covering the spread on a Fandall TV Plus you can also watch the solo shot there So again, if you're trying to bet baseball daily, you can find my thoughts on that strikeout props home run props and more Over on the Fandall research podcast feed We'll still talk baseball here uncovering the spread too But can't get to it every weekday because we got a lot of other stuff to cover as well So if you want some daily baseball thoughts subscribe to the Fandall research podcast feed Also big stuff here this week on uncovering the spread Of course the men's and women's final four is coming up next weekend. We'll talk about those throughout this week But a lot of the stuff throughout the month of May as well So subscribe to you covering the spread or we get your podcast You can find this on the Fandall YouTube page and Fandall TV plus as well And of course your bracket is busted doesn't matter because you can still bet over at Fandall sportsbook for the men's and women's tournaments You can bet on and up so you can bet on the chalk whatever you want right now new customers Get $200 in bonus bets if your first $5 bet wins That's 200 bucks to use on point spreads money lines going to bets and futures whatever it may be you can do all that at Fandall Just go to fandall.com and bet on college hoops until they cut down the nets Must be 21 plus and president select states Fandall is offering online sports wagering in Kansas under an agreement with cancels dark casino llc first online real money wager only $10 first deposit acquired bonus issued as non withdrawal of bonus bets Then expire seven days after a seat see terms at sportsbook dot fandall dot com gambling problem call 1 800 gambler over some fandall dot com slash rg colorado iowa michigan New jersey ohio pennsylvania illinois kentucky tennessee virginia north carolina ed vermont call 1 800 next step Or text next step to 5334 2 in arizona 188 79 777 7 Or is ccpg dot org slash jack connecticut 1809 with it in indiana 1805 22 4700 visit chaos gambling health.com in cancels 18077 770 stop in louisiana visit md gambling health on orga maryland 180 gambling dot net in west virginia 1805 22 4700 wyoming hope is here visit gambling helpline ma.org Or call you 100 32 750 50 for 24 7 support in mattsachusetts or call 1 877 open y or text open y in new y Let's dig in now to the nfl wind totals across 2024 Over at fandall sportsbook. It is a glorious thing to see these now posted there. We can dig into the markets We're going to start with one I've been talking about quite a bit here on the show during free agency It's not because this team has been buzzy, but because Teams in their division have been a bit buzzy I think the saints are undervalued at fandall sportsbook right now With the wind total setting a seven and a half wins the over is minus 130 so you are paying a bit of a price to get there but Even considering that I think that they're undervalued right now This is the biggest discrepancy between what my model has what the market has and The saints have a good schedule and an efficient passing offense and the defense last year was good Despite having some impactful injuries It's also an easy division. So that's why I like the saints is those reasons but I'd have them above seven and a half wins even if They didn't have the division they were in like if you look at their power rating in my model and just kind of get a A projected wind total from that not accounting for the teams they face They'd be above seven and a half wins for me even before we count for the tote for their For their schedule and they get a bump of 0.8 wins for me based on their schedule for this year Once you head in that schedule, I've got them well above this number It's again the biggest discrepancy on the board for me And yeah, the saints had some weird vibes last year It's weird when Derek Carr is getting yelled at by his offensive lineman You don't really want to have a lot of faith in the situations and the division to get tougher with Kirk Cousins now in Atlanta But they haven't lost a ton of key pieces yet They could get better along the offensive line which was a key issue last year and it's important to remember Despite those weird vibes. They did still win nine games last year going over this total by one and a half wins so They'd have to get a bit worse in order to go under this number even when you account for the fact that Kirk Cousins Is in Atlanta as well So of all the wind totals at Fandall sportsbook right now My favorite is the saints over Seven and a half wins minus 130. I understand the concerns I saw them last year too But I can't get to this number being as low as it is So to me the saints are the best wind totals at target at Fandall sportsbook over seven and a half minus 130 Is my favorite bet on the board with where things stand right now Looking elsewhere trying to find some other ones. We've not discussed yet. You're on the show Some teens are not discussed I like the jags quite a bit and this is a reversion for me because In 2021 the jay or 2022 I should say the jags were a team I bet constantly and it became a bit annoying It was always the jags in the line showing value for me last year Things got a bit higher on the jags and I could get to so I ended up betting against them a lot But I feel like my my numbers have had a good read on this team the past couple of years buying into them When they've been good selling them when they've been off And I think now is the time to buy low on this team to bet on a good quarterback and trevor lorence Now obviously last year Lawrence was shaky at times But he dealt with a lot of injuries and this offense a lot of injuries their offense a line was banged up They had some weird things going on a wide receiver They didn't have the good bodies and you could say hey I mean like they lost Calvin Ridley and replaced him with game davis which is a downgrade for sure And they've had to cut some key contributors elsewhere too And they're still not as good as you'd like along the offensive line So why would want to take the over an eight and a half wins? again, it's because of lorence because Last year was what it was but go back to 2022 He shredded that year and led this team to the postseason and it went into the postseason too Without Calvin Ridley Ridley was suspended that year He was on the roster for half the year But was he was suspended and they could still have playmakers Via the draft to replace that production they lost with Ridley They got their first round pick which should be in a good range to get a good wide receiver They got a second round pick Hopefully add some offense a line there and this draft is deep in the positions where the jags need help If you give trevor lorence the supporting cast of christian kirk gabe davis evan ingram and a solid rookie at wide receiver I think that lorence can be efficient once again That's why i've got the jags went all at 9.6 wins right now They're an eight and a half year at fandall sportsbook over his minus 110 i'm pretty good buying into that gap I also think you could justify betting the jags to win the afc south personally I'm hesitant to do so because I don't want to bet against cj stroud that feels gross They're plus 240 right now to do so. So if you want some more upside I think that could be the route you go is take the jags to win the afc south at plus 240 Don't feel the titans is being a huge threat there. I think the colts would be fine but The gap between the jags and colts. I think should be a bit wider so to me The best market to go with here to take advantage of the fact that trevor lorence is being a bit slept on right now Is the jags over eight and f wins minus 110? I think that's a pretty quality one Just based on the fact that we've seen lorence be efficient with a bad supporting cast in the past I think he could do it again This year and there's also a chance that supporting cast could get a bit better So jags over eight and a half minus 110 Third win total I wanted to discuss involves a team that was pretty vexing to me last year in the eagles Early on my number should value betting against them quite a bit and they continued to Make me feel very stupid for that That came around later on in the year where The team fell apart and it was profitable to bet against them And you look at what happened with that defense with that team last year is all about the defense Like jalen hurts was still efficient Down the back stretch of the year not really in the playoffs that won playoff game, but like The offense was good. It was a defense that struggled and I don't think they've done enough to address concerns Defensively they did a vik fangio and that matters a lot because going from That patricia the second half of the year to vik fangio You don't get a lot of dc Changes that are going to be more impactful than that But they lost letra cox the secondary for the eagle still pretty old. They brought back cj gardener johnson, but Struggle with injuries last year. So is he the still the same player? He was back in the day You know hard to tell there. I don't expect super stout linebacker play here and that impacts the run game obviously, but also it can impact the passing game when You know tight ends running bass can shred you in the passing game too The movement at edge for the eagles obviously trading wing hassan reddick. They brought in brice huff I think that's a pretty lateral move honestly Huff hasn't had a At every down roll throughout his entire career whereas reddick has so I view this being more of a lateral move for the eagles So I guess my big question with them is Why should I expect this defense to be any better this year than it was last year outside of vik fangio and vik fangio again does matter, but How much do we have to bake that in in order to get to a win total a 10 and a half? Then there's the offense. They did lose jason kelsey there, too They've got guys who can fill in they've got some good depth along the offensive line Just outland is amazing as an o-line coach and it's okay to bet on him But it's still a key piece to lose within that offense And then you never really know if the bad vibes from last year will be fixed during this off season So I've got the eagles closer to nine wins than 11, which is what they need to get over on this number Maybe dallas struggles. Maybe daniel jones isn't healthy in week one that can help them here Maybe the commanders struggle the rookie quarterback That could open the door for the eagles to go over 10 and a half wins But it's hard for me to get there personally So I'll take the eagles under 10 and a half wins minus 118 again you're showing good value there based on my numbers and It's one I I agree with the numbers as well I need there to be a major major adjustment up for vic fangio to justify betting it over here Eagles were involved in that son retic trade over the weekend Other side of the trade was the new york jets and the jets went total right now fandal sports because it nine and a half under his minus 115 and I understand what the jets are doing. I think they're making some some good bets on Player personnel and they're adding some good players players. I like a lot. I love tyrant smith I love mike williams so They're adding good players But it's a lot of gambles on older players who have had a lot of injury concerns and that's where I think we see some value in the under here is because it's it's a it's a fragile team Aaron rogers is 40 coming off a torn achilles tyrant smith is 33 He has not played more than 13 games in the seasons since 2015 Morgan moses is the other tackle for them. He's also 33 years old Mike williams 29 years old coming off a torn acl So I like all those guys and they've played well in the not too distant pass But there's a lot of fragility there That doesn't mean that jets can't succeed because a very similar team to this where it was Reliant on some players and if those players get banged up the whole house of cards comes down That was the rams the other one the super bowl like they had a very similar setup and they kept stafford kept Aaron donnell kept dealing ramsy healthy and they won they won at all so this type of approach can succeed But there are paths to an under here there is What if rogers doesn't play well? What if tyrant smith gets banged up and they have to deal with the the offense of lawn ninjas again? What if mike williams gets banged up and they once again are dependent on you know Some questionable pieces behind garret wilson. There are multiple paths to an under here for the jets I mean their defense could regress too. There are a lot of paths here. So to me I like the moves they've made. I like the guys they brought in because they had to kind of ball on a budget With the the rogers cap hit and stuff like that So I think they're making good moves, but I think that those moves still do Leave them vulnerable to an under so although I agree with what the jets are doing I do still think under nine and a half wins minus 120 minus 115 Is the way to go here for the jets so I'll take that myself as well a fangirl sports book and Bet against a team that has several paths with under in my eyes The final one I want to talk about is not one I actually want to bet right now But one I want to keep in mind for later on this year and potentially target at a later point That's the same cisco 49ers over 11 and a half wins is even money right now It's a really big number You need to get 12 wins to get there and it means you need to have good health that quarterback You need to be good obviously But I think that we can still feel good about it in this instance I've actually got the Niners projected for 13 wins right now, which is by far the most in the league They get there because of how sick their offense was last year and You know, they had the interest Trent Williams and to debauched Samuel And they did lose a couple of games there, but they were still efficient in those games despite the fact they didn't have those guys and That gives me some faith here But also they've got depth where if one guy goes down they can step up and the system is so good They can win games even with guys being out On the defensive side of things there's been a lot of movement defensively this year from a personnel perspective But I don't think they've gotten worse. They just made a lot of Guys subbed in and out a lot of depth. They've signed there. So I think it's been largely a lateral move for them defensive Now I mentioned before I like this number where it's at But I don't want to bet it right now and that comes down to brandon iuk Because there have been a lot of rumors that brandon iuk could get traded for the Niners and that could happen Around the draft because they could trade him to hypothetically the jags Get a mid first round pick and return and try to replace iuk via the draft If they were to trade iuk, I think this win total would come down It's even money over 11 1⁄2 wins right now would probably get Maybe plus 110 plus 120 somewhere in that range If they were to trade brandon iuk at some point this off season And I want to wait until that happens if it were to happen And the reason i'm okay waiting here is because I don't think this number will get a lot higher Like I don't think we're going to get taxed for waiting on the over 11 1⁄2 wins Because there's really no reason for this number to move upwards at this point So what I want to do is wait until after the draft see if they keep iuk and grab it then Because again, there's a good chance this number goes down Or we get a better number on the over if they do decide to trade iuk and it would impact my win total model too So I want to maybe run it without him and kind of see where it settles in that But I don't think we'll get a worse number than this anytime soon And we could get a better number if they were to trade iuk So I like this number the niners over 11 1⁄2 wins and even money But I want to see how things play out before actually deciding to bet it But overall really high in this team once again They've won 12 or more games in three of the past five seasons and two of those seasons did not include 17 games even so I feel good about it. Just want to see How things transpire to see if we can get a better number later on or if we can feel good about Then if they do decide to keep Brandon iuk So the five win totals i'm liking right now are The niners over 11 that even money not betting that one right now The ones I do I don't mind betting are the jets under nine and a half minus 115 eagles under 10 and a half minus 118 Like the jags over eight and a half and minus 110 and the saints over seven and a half at minus 130 That's all that we have here for today on covering the spread as mentioned a lot of good stuff coming up throughout this week We're talking some final four talking other stuff So make sure to subscribe to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast find us on the fandal youtube page And fandal tv plus as well to get if you want some mlb betting action each weekday Check out the fandal research podcast beat and listen feed and listen to the solar shot If you've got any questions for me, I am on twitter at jim sonnis You can also find fandal research on twitter at fandal research Want to thank you all for tuning in for today. Good luck to you with your bets across monday We'll talk to you once again tomorrow. This has been covering the spread right here on the fandal podcast network