 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network We have actual football games that matter to discuss this week week zero is finally here for college football We're gonna break down what Ed's model says about those games What goes into Ed's model and get you set for our first weekend of actual real games of 2022? It is a great day. You talking to all of you welcome on into covering the spread That's right here on the Fandall podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim saw this I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire calm joined here Once again as always by my Wednesday co-host dr. Ed Fang you can find his work over the powering calm Ed we got games coming up this weekend on Saturday. I'm ecstatic. How are you doing? I'm doing really well. I'm excited to have some games Although kind of overwhelmed with all the things that need to be done before then but yeah, we're gonna roll Whether I'm ready or not. So here we go. We absolutely are and we're gonna break down what goes into the numbers You're looking at we're gonna break down your favorite bets of this week. We'll break down Some of the key games aren't really any big games this week, but who cares? It's college football I can't talk about got the game of the season the game of the century Ed. Let's not let's not your hat Denotes a tune and playing in this game of the century. I mean it's NU versus NU the the battle of NU the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, which is not NU by the way versus Northwest University, which actually is NU out in Dublin, Ireland I'll be there on Saturday. I am flying out today on Wednesday. That's gonna be a whole lot of fun I saw that there is a Northwestern bar set up in Dublin somewhere. So we're gonna have a blast We're gonna watch some college football in person. I will now have seen Northwestern play in Evanston obviously a couple big 10 places But then Jacksonville Nashville and we'll add Dublin to the list and those are very random places It feels like to see a Northwestern football team play Well, I mean it's it's gotta be a fun venue a fun trip. I'm glad you're gonna get a chance to get away before Everything goes crazy with the NFL soon. Yeah, that's that's that's the issue here is I had a bachelor party last weekend Got Dublin this weekend Fandall events in Chicago coming up off week one of NFL then I have a wedding in Denver in week three So a whole lot of travel not a lot of rest But we'll dive on in and break down that NU versus NU game and much more in just one second But first NFL kickoff is still a few weeks away You can get on the action now on Fandall sportsbook with their NFL super win bonus right now anyone who places at least a $50 Super Bowl winter bed will get $5 back for each Win your team has during the regular season There are also a ton of other futures markets available like team win totals division winners player props and so much more There is no better place to get ready for the football season They end on Fandall America's number one sportsbook and official sports betting partner of the NFL must be 21 plus and president select States only bonus issued is not withdrawable free bets that expire seven days after a seat max a free bet $50 Restrictions applies to terms at sportsbook.fandall.com gambling problem call 1800 gambler or visit fandall.com slash RG in Arizona one at a next step protects next up to five three three four two in Connecticut one eight eight eight seven eight nine seven seven seven seven or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Indiana one eight hundred nine with it in Louisiana one eight seven seven seven seven zero stop in New York one eight seven seven eight Hope and wire text open why in Tennessee called the red line at one eight hundred eighty nine nine seventy nine in Wyoming One eight hundred five two two forty seven hundred in West Virginia one eight hundred gambler Dot net also regarding the podcast for the next couple of days Tom Beck yeah We'll have you covered Thursday and Friday Tom filled in for me last week on Friday to get you said Talks and MLB and some NFL Tom back with you Thursday Friday So still having daily shows here on covering the spread I'll be back with you on Monday fresh off the plane to break down more MLB next Monday as well So get all those by subscribing to the covering the spread podcast feed Let's dive in now this week is zero slayed Ed We'll talk about the actual games in the second to first we were talking last week and our win total show about What goes into your win total model and the complexities of that but now we're talking about actual games So when we're talking about your actual in-game model What are the key data that you lean on to try to predict how a single game will go? We're in the preseason right now. So You know, it'll change in a regular season, but we're looking at preseason metrics and all of that Is based on one of two things it's based on data from past seasons and teams tend to persist in college football So I used four years for example to look at how a team has performed and So data is one aspect of it and then the other aspect of it and actually probably what's unique to what I do at the power Rank is I use market win totals And I have code that backs out the rating for every team Given the price to go over and under a specific win total and then of course your schedule. So, you know Seven and a half wins means different something different in the SEC West than it does in in the Sun Belt So, yeah, there's some code that does that I've found that to be a very powerful predictor over the past I found it to be, you know, the point spreads you get out of that to be Very good at predicting what's what's going on in the future and for week one and you combine that with some other metrics you trust as well and Those are the member numbers that I will talk about today And how much does it change as you get actual in-season data? Like is it a blending of two separate models that spits out like once we it's like week three How does it kind of integrate as we actually get real game data here? Well by week three. Well, I mean actually after this week Yeah, so after this week it'll start adjusting based on data from the current season and you'll see those adjustments for the teams a couple years ago I started making some way more aggressive adjustments in college football because That is what I feel is needed to really capture How these teams change it is also what in some of the pros that I've talked to I think that is the right approach for college football So don't be surprised if you see, you know, if you see a team that You know, maybe it looks kind of terrible. We'll talk about Georgia Tech in a little bit but that is a team that is kind of on its last legs maybe with a coach entering his fourth year and If they they put a real stinker out there on against Clemson You could see and whoever they're playing in the first couple weeks You could see some drastic adjustments there Clemson is another team that can move Well, I mean Clemson is actually the perfect example of a team that You had to move on pretty quick last year because the offense just stunk and actually never ended up getting better over the course of the season the defense was still pretty good but My model wasn't quite aggressive enough to capture Clemson last year I think I think I did not end up overall profitable Betting on Clemson last year, you know, that's what my model said and with the belief that look This is one of the preeminent programs in college football. So it's always, you know, you have to You have to put some objective analysis over the model as well I mean, sometimes you're gonna be able to catch teams. Sometimes you're not and That's that's kind of the art of a betting Yeah, for me, I've always found a blend of having a model to tell me spots I want to look at and using subjectivity to decide do I agree has been The biggest successes that I've had has been a blend of that too And I think that's kind of along with what you're saying there as well So let's have a week zero games here again Not the the best most robust sleep will start things off with the headliner over in Dublin It is Nebraska versus Northwest from right now a fan dual sportsbook Nebraska 13 and a half point favorites Total here is 50 and a half said I Have spent two of the past three years watching and hit a hideous product product on the field for Northwestern Looks like Ryan Helinski is probably won the quarterback one job based on his Instagram I know that's very very official very informative Coach Fitzer feases it to say who's running a quarterback, but simple question. Do my cats have a chance here? For sure. I mean, I mean maybe to cover in particular I mean, it seems like this line is getting out of control a little bit So these are two interesting teams in the sense that you need to ask how much are they gonna regress to kind of their program mean I don't even know if no, Nebraska has a program mean anymore. They've been Significantly underperforming throughout the Scott Frost era. You can quantify that a little bit They were 0-7 in one score games last season. I also believe they lost to Ohio State by 9 Which is pretty good given how good Ohio State was So it was it, you know, you're not supposed to go 0-7 in one score games. You strongly Expect things to regress to 500 there. So So they shouldn't be 3-9 again Markets have win totals at about seven and a half for Nebraska. I honestly think that's a little bit high Based on some of the models that I looked at They have things a little bit lower for Nebraska and you know now that I'm talking about and thinking about it It's like, well, where is that program mean, you know, it hasn't really been I mean, it's been a long time since they were a permanent program and they've gone through a lot of coaches and had to figure things out They, you know, they kind of they got quarterback case Thompson from Texas in the transfer portal I don't know if anyone's convinced that he's necessarily answer. They're resorting to a lot of other transfers to To get this program to the next level. That's what you have to do when you're Scott Frost and really on the hot seat To really turn this program around. I mean three wins again. This season is not going to do it now They should win more than three games But the question is how many, you know, they they're probably gonna get this first one against Northwestern. I Have this game at a neutral site and I've Nebraska by 11 and that's about a 79 percent win probability, so Your Wildcats are not favored, but you know one in five they could potentially pull the victory here And you know Northwestern, they've been well last year They were significantly below what their program mean is and we kind of know what the program mean is for Pat Fitzgerald, right? It's somewhere between 25 and 60, you know In in in FPS and that's just where he is and sometimes you win a lot of close games And you go 10 and 2 and in win a bowl game and sometimes it doesn't work out You know last year was an outlier because they were really bad on both sides of the ball Programs traditionally been really good on defense You lose a legendary coordinator and you're kind of starting over and you're you're trying to figure things out on that side of the ball the offense it's kind of stunk for a while and I don't know. I mean it should get better I mean Northwestern should be somewhere between the 25th and 60th best team in the country. That's not where they project right now But it's the same, you know, it's the same head coach and he's done it before and and you should get back to that program mean If that's anywhere near the case, then I do think there's a little bit of value in Northwestern plus What'd you tell me the number was 12 and a half? Yeah, 13 and a half 13 and a half seems like a lot. Yeah for A Nebraska program that I'm not sure anyone who who thinks deeply about college football really trusts. Yeah I I think last year Part of it was the quarterback situation, which is not better this year because again Ryan Holinski He's probably the starter and he's the same guy who was in there for a lot of last year But also they're replacing Rashawn Slater who did miss the 2020 season two because he opted out due to COVID Greg Newsom was gone. They had a lot of guys. They had to you know replace and they didn't they didn't do that well, obviously, but They've had some seasoning on these guys now. It was a decently young team So 13 and a half is a big number and I'm glad your numbers say there's value there Because we will hope as I get on the fly But we'll see how that one plays out over in Dublin between Nebraska and Northwestern So Ed's numbers do like Northwestern potentially plus 13 and a half in this one Let's stick in the big 10 and talk about Illinois Illinois now a 10 and a half point favorite Against Wyoming this game is in our band of champagne. I believe total is 43 and a half and We're talking about Illinois last week on the show and you said you like the wind total under for Illinois So we're looking at an individual game now versus Wyoming. What are your numbers saying about the Illini here? Yeah, I mean, we're seeing the market go away from my number again. I have Illinois by 9.3 points I just think it's gonna be It's gonna be a step back here for for Brett Bielumov before maybe he gets this program back to To to where well until he gets the program better They lost a ton of production on both sides of the ball. They they lost a quarterback wasn't particularly good and It's probably gonna be a little bit of a reset. So so I do believe in that. I'm not exactly too excited about Betting on Wyoming in this situation They've been decent on the defensive side of the ball with Craig Ball but not so much on offense and and I'm not necessarily convinced that they're gonna do it as well. So I'm probably staying away from this but In general, I do think I'm looking to fade Illinois this early early in the season now with both these first two games we've seen spreads that were more ambitious than what your numbers said and I I'm inclined to go into your numbers early in the season because there's a lot more variants. There's a lot more volatility which typically When you have a wider spread it implies certainty it implies we kind of know what we're dealing with Do you feel the same way an inclination towards? You know not laying a massive massive number when there is this much uncertainty Especially with programs like Illinois, Nebraska that it's hard to in a vacuum see them covering massive massive spreads from the get-go Yeah, I mean, I think so I think some of these spreads are a little bit high. I I I haven't ever quantified this but I personally do think there's a difference between NFL and college football College football the market seem to be a little bit Happier to acknowledge that a team is gonna be particularly good I feel like the NFL spreads are very cautious those first couple weeks in the season. You tend to see small numbers You don't yeah, you the markets are essentially assuming regression to the mean Right like you're not gonna give any team credit for being particularly good And it's only after you see teams Just think it up for a couple weeks and we're all when you start seeing those double-digit spreads and and then you can start Fading that I don't feel like that's a particularly good strategy in the NFL in the first couple weeks Probably a little bit more so in college because I do feel again I haven't quantified this but I do feel like the markets tend to give the favorites a little bit more of an edge Yeah, I think that that is interesting, especially the way we've seen things move for these first two games But also for this third games. Let's go now to Hawaii. I'm going to Dublin. I wouldn't mind going to Hawaii instead So if Northwestern wants to play I guess USC in Hawaii in a couple years sign me up I'll go to that but we got Vandy at Hawaii right now Vandy eight and a half point favorite This one six and a half Tuesday morning. It is now eight and a half again a lot of points a total here is 54 and a half Typically though Ed. We're seeing Vandy against Tougher competition Hawaii not quite in that realm. How does this Vanderbilt team compare to Hawaii in Hawaii for this week? Yeah, so this is a game that I Did that I don't kind of understand quantitatively so my numbers have this almost a pick and I don't know. I'm not sure Vandy should be an eight point favorite against anybody FBS anywhere This is a program that hasn't really done. Well Clark layers in a second year on the job and he's got a lot of work to do But you know the kind of argument is like why he's kind of starting over in some sense They brought in Timmy Chang talk Ramis fired over some allegations of player abuse and They lost a lot of key players the transfer portal and I think they're gonna start that trigger guy quarterback who was like this complete wild gunsling or last year so that that should be kind of interesting as well and So yeah, it's tough to know exactly what to expect with Hawaii I think, you know, Vandy's probably gonna have a talent edge being the SEC program I I'm pretty sure my numbers that say this is close to a picker is not right but you know, is there some value with Hawaii probably being at home in this spot, but I Think there's a lot of uncertainty there. Yeah And again, it just sounds like when there's uncertainty, it's okay to you know Be skeptical of a large spread with regards to Vandy here So we're liking Northwestern plus 13 and a half liking but not betting necessarily Wyoming plus 10 and a half and then into Hawaii plus eight and a half versus Vanderbilt for this week But yeah, we got a lot of the games on the board for this week to not the most robust way But there are still some other games any other numbers standing out to you is presenting some value for this week I want to talk about a week one game and I want to talk about Clemson and Georgia Tech at a neutral site. So Clemson is a team who's often stunk last year but Again, it's been one of the permanent programs, right? I mean, we expect the offense maybe not to be elite but to to get back closer to the program mean which is which has been Pretty good. I mean, I guess it's always gonna be pretty good when you have to show on Watson and and Trevor Lawrence at the quarterback position I think they're gonna get better. They're not gonna stink like that They have an amazing defense that really isn't gonna change and Georgia Tech is is kind of not a really good football program lost Right now lost a ton of production from last year Gonna be over our line on some transfers just not coach on the hot seat just You know a program that could fall even further from from where it's become and So anyways the market is Clemson minus 21 and a half my numbers are even more bullish I have comes by almost 24. I do think there's some value there. I think that gets away From Georgia Tech pretty early. Yeah, that game is at Mercedes-Benz stadium. So in Atlanta for that week You have that as the new cycling as you mentioned So 21 and a half the spread in favor of Clemson there at is going to lay that for week one I would advise You know with these week zero games We saw a lot of movement today Tuesday, you know yesterday Tuesday and If you like week one numbers get them now because we're seeing movement still despite the fact that these games have been posted for a very long time We are still seeing movement So if you like Clemson minus 21 and a half you agree that there or if you like any other week one games I would get them now because we will see some movement early in the week despite the fact these numbers have not for a very long time So if you like Clemson minus 21 and a half out in Atlanta I would grab that one as well That is all that we have here for this week on covering the spread But and delight to talk to you again to like talk to you about some actual games For here as well if people want to find your numbers whether it be the public-facing ones or signing up for your member numbers Where can they do so for that? It's all at the power egg calm. It's my site for better sports betting through predictive analytics And I do truly believe that predictive analytics is a crucial component of football betting So if you want to just check it out, I recommend signing up for the newsletter this is try to I write about games that I bet and then We also have seven Nugget Saturday, which is curated list of sports betting tips and news So you can check that out at the power bank calm And then also I just put up an article today about the craft of sports betting professionals So this was a product that I did over the off season. Just trying to figure out what the The processes of some top pros and listened to a lot of podcasts and wrote that up So that's something you can check it. It's pinned to my Twitter feed at the power rank If you're interested at all and how this all works You should look to what the pros are doing and I tried to make it easy for you With the craft of sports betting professionals And I would say especially if you're someone who is new to this given that we've had a lot of states legalized since last college football season If you're new to this Learn from the pros learn what they do learn those best practices learn What they're looking for stuff like that now is the time to soak up as much information as possible So finding the aggregated source for all that stuff that added compiled for you, especially helpful there So find that it's that it's on his Twitter at the power rank to find that Football and the analytics show is at its podcast and also the power rank calm to get all of ads numbers I'm on Twitter at Jim Sonnis J. I. M. S. A. N. N. E. S. You can also follow the fan dual podcast network at Fandall podcast once again Tom Vecchio with you for the next couple of days Thursday and Friday to get you into your weekend. I'll be back with you on Monday to recap What went down for this week in week zero of college football? Good luck to you with your bets We'll talk to you once again soon This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network