 Hello and welcome to CMC Markets on Thursday the 24th of August at this quick look at the week ahead beginning the 28th of August now We're coming off the back of the annual central bank symposium at Jackson Hole and markets have really been obsessing about The next steps I think with respect to central bank policy not only from the US Federal Reserve But also from the European Central Bank now whether or not we get any further details on that I think I don't think what isn't what isn't in doubt is that the ECB is on a path To potentially tapering its asset purchase program I think the real the real debate really is about the timing of Such a tapering process and ultimately I don't think mr. Draghi is really in any rush to furnish any further details with respect to the timing of Such a tapering program I think what will happen is it will probably happen next year whether it happens in the first quarter of next year or the second quarter of next year It's neither here nor there ultimately. I think it will happen and I think what Jackson Hole will do Is it will ultimately allow Janet Yellen of the US Federal Reserve and Mario Draghi to try and coordinate their respective Monetary policy programs the Federal Reserve wants to Wind down the size of its balance sheet and I think mrs. Yellen will have one eye on her legacy Given there's no guarantee that she will be in situ at the beginning of next year We already know that President Trump has other potential candidates waiting in the wings Ultimately, we don't know who they are, but one of those candidates that has been terrorist is Gary Coe Whether or not he he does become the eventual Candidate for that particular role only time will tell but we're also having to deal with an awful lot of what I would call domestic US politics and More bombast from President Trump about the debt ceiling and I think that's really the next key risk for US markets will the Republicans Agree to raise the debt ceiling by the end of September and we have been here before We've been here in 2011 We've been here in 2013 the difference this time is the Republicans have control of both houses So the real question is is President Trump bluff bluffing too early to say the economic data out of the US So still fairly positive services PMI data was pretty positive this week and as we look ahead to the Beginning of September in the end of August all eyes this specific this upcoming week starting the 28th of August Are on non-farm payrolls, which is true on Friday. So tune into our monthly webinar, which starts At 1 15 with me and Colin Sezynski, and we will cover the numbers live I think that's really the key event for this week along with a whole host of PMI releases and ISM releases from Not only the United States, but also from pretty much across the entire world. We've got European PMIs We've got UK PMIs. We have US ISM Manufacturing data as well and they all come out at the back end of that week We've also got a second iteration of US Q2 GDP. I think that will be a that could well be a key indicator But I think the main focus for this particular week will be on the payrolls data on Friday the 1st of September More importantly on the wages data But what we have seen over the past course of over the course of the past few days is sharp downward thrusts in US equity markets and we can see it on this S&P chart that I've got in front of me here now We have broken below that 2450 area as designated by this support and resistance line here The next key area of support for me is around about 2410 and I think that for me will dictate whether or not we get a rebound and a retest of the highs around 2490 or whether we get a further downward move in Equity markets and I think a lot of that could well depend on How the dollar performs over the course of the next few days Well, we've also seen as a continuing and continuing Down move in of the German DAX as a result of the stronger euro and again I've talked about this before the 200-day moving average and the downed the down channel that German markets have been in since the end of June that continues to be the case So I think the next key support for the German DAX is not only the 200-day moving average and we talked about this last week And the euro stocks 50 it's also the lows that we saw in August and As well as the lows that we saw in early March And I think if if if there is a break lower there that could well be as a result of a weaker dollar Which could be US politics driven and a higher euro Which could be on the basis of events at Jackson Hole as of yet as of which yet I have no Prior knowledge, so I think by the time you get this video some of that could be out of date We could certainly get an awful lot more detail about what comes out of Jackson Hole I don't expect it to be a significantly market moving event I think the big I think the big thing to watch out for with respect to Jackson Hole is really Doesn't Mario Draghi try and talk the euro lower Central banks as a general rule don't worry too much about five or ten percent moves over the course of safe For example an 18 month or a two-year period, but when it happens over a very short period of time I think that does I think there comes a time when they probably have some concerns About the extent of the move higher or lower So there may be some softening of the hawkish message that I think has been coming out of Europe with respect to the data and the ECB's policy with respect to potentially Highlighting or guiding with respect to when they might be inclined to look at a tapering program So that's it for this week as I say the only the only data of note comes at the back end of the week It's very much manufacturing PMI based and US non-farm payrolls and ADP payrolls But ultimately join us for the first of September for that non-farm payrolls webinar until then this is Michael Houston talking to you from CMC markets