 and welcome to my show. I'd like to consider myself the Regis Philbin of Portland. Regis just passed away. The tributes on television for this wonderful, wonderful man I've been all over, all over the news. One of the most incredible things about Regis is that he set the Guinness World Book of Records for having the most time on TV. And I'm gonna try to surpass that if I live to be 140. Folks, over the course of years, I've had the pleasure of looking forward to my guests, Brenda Lee, the singer, Effley Bailey, the attorney, Janet Mills. But the gentleman I'm about to have on is one of my absolute favorites. And that's because I read him every single day. He is one of the best columnists, not only in this state, but in the country, in my opinion. He's got three important qualities. One is a conscience, secondly, intelligence, and thirdly, a fantastic ability to write. I have to admit that I sometimes emulate his style when I wrap my own columns, but I don't come very close. And he is Bill Nemitz, Bill, welcome aboard. Thank you, Dary, it's good to be here. This doesn't make me Catholic Gifford, does it? I always wanted, first of all, the effusive remarks about him. And they lasted 15 years, and Terry Gammie and I, and Steve Schwartz did a few years. And the last time you were on was with Terry Gammie. But Bill, I want to start right out of the blocks with something that you wrote about a couple of weeks ago. And then it made news again, and that is the situation at the park in Buxton. Are things better there now? Well, it's shut down, so I guess, yeah, they are. Nobody can get in. And in fact, after the weekend that I wrote that column, for those who might know Pleasant Point Park is a town park, which was deeded to the town from the state. Beautiful, beautiful. Six acres on the Sarco River. And it's been getting trashed every weekend, really badly. But then it took another step. It wasn't just the kids and the litter and all that stuff. When the police would go down there and try to see what's going on, a couple of times it became kind of threatening for them. They were treated with disrespect. Well, they were surrounded, and one time there was this one cop down there, and he's got 45 drunken young people around him. So they've had to kind of beat a hasty retreat. So that was what prompted the chief to say, we're going to shut this thing down completely, which they did. The weekend I wrote that column. And sure enough, they put up the tape. They put up the signs that Saturday. I think that Saturday and Sunday, I think they made upwards of 30 odd arrests. Really? They kept coming. But right now, as far as whenever I've been down there, it's quiet, and the town right now is trying to figure out a way to open it back up. Folks, I wrote to Bill the next day because I'm fortunate to live right near Fort Williams. We live right at the street. And when I go to that park, folks, and see people from all over the world, and it's an immaculate park, and they sell the lobster rolls, and even if I see an errant gum wrapper or something, which is few and far between, I'm so proud to go there and enjoy myself. And I felt so bad for the people of Buxton that can't go to their lovely park and enjoy themselves and not feel threatened. And the deed restriction is such that you could say, okay, just let people from the town go there. Well, that's not the way the covenant is written. So it has to be open to everyone. So they're trying to grapple with that right now. I mean, the number of empties they took out that one weekend, they're talking about trying to be able to fund a park ranger. If you took those empties to the Redemption Center, you probably could have paid a park ranger for that week with the number of empties. You know, Bill, I almost was gonna ask you, would there be such a thing as a bunch of people having a GoFundMe situation so that they could hire private security guards or something, but I assume that might have been thought of. Well, they're working on it. The select men are working on it and just trying to come up with a plan so that they can make it accessible to people, but control the craziness. I got a boat, we go up and down the, that stretch of the Soccer River all the time, and the favorite part of the boat ride is, you know, you come to a stop in the river and you watch the kids coming off their own swings. Yes, yes. You know, and it can be dangerous. No question. And there was a tragedy there was lack of, I think it was two years ago. Yes. And so, you know, it's a great place. It's just, I don't know, sign of the times, you know? People go and stir crazy, you know? Sign of the times, anger. Some people have got some anger. Yeah, and the reaction to the police, I think was unwarranted, you know? Thank you. By the way, over the course of this interview, I might throw out a couple of questions and just come out of nowhere, but folks, the title of this show is The Elections. Who's going to win and why? And I want to tell you folks that I have friends on both sides of the equation. I have friends that think Donald Trump is the greatest president that ever lived. I've got friends that think exactly the opposite. Same with Susan Collins, Sarah Gideon, both sides. People that think LePage was the greatest governor that ever walked, and we now have Janet Mills, who I think personally is doing a very good job. So, the views you're going to hear today not necessarily views from our hearts, although maybe from bills, but more from my experience as a government major at Bowdoin College and having been in politics, having worked in Washington for Ed Muskie and knowing politicians on both sides. So, I'm going to start right out of the blocks now. LePage. LePage. LePage. Will he run? Will he run, first of all? In 2022, I suspect if I had to guess today, I would say yes. Okay. Yeah, I mean, he's, well, no great insight there. He said he's going to run. A lot of things in the past too. That's correct. I think he's itching to get back into it. I think a lot of his activities over the past several months seem pointed toward that. I don't think he's going to be able to resist the temptation. Okay. Next question, I'm going to give you my answers. The next question, if he does run, can, not will, but can he win? I doubt it. Okay. Yeah, I really do. I think at this point, Governor Mills is riding pretty high in her handling of the pandemic, which seems to kind of overwhelm everything else. But she's out of the blocks, I think she's doing pretty well. And you know, I mean, the incumbency is always a hard hurdle to get over. So I don't think he can beat her. Okay. So folks, question one, I say he's not going to run. I say there's going to be something about health or that the party will talk him out of it. And number two, we disagree on that too, because I think he can win. And the reason is, is because I have a feeling that some people, that side will be so angry about the virus that happened, something to happen to them with unemployment. I fully agree, they're still there. Okay. But especially if he were, you're right, he'd have to win the nomination. Yeah. But I don't think that would be terribly difficult. Yeah, okay. And number two, he would, you know, he's always benefited from three-way races. Sure. So- So be throwing another, Elliot Cutler. Yeah, I mean, we'll have to see. I mean, then they have to get over the rank choice, voting hurdle with the state constitution, all that stuff. So, you know, it's, I think the real answer is it's too soon to tell. Because as you said, it's two years away and anything can happen. Okay. I mean, if 2020 has taught us anything, don't even try to predict what's going to be happening a month from now. That's why I said, I didn't say will, I said can. I, Bill, I knew this was going to be fun. And by the way, you folks, I told Bill when we started the show, we want to be laughing here. We want to be serious the whole show. Okay. The next, next question. Second district, Jared Golden against a, an obvious pro-Trump running on that, on that issue saying, we, I'm going with obviously if Trump gets elected, he'll ride those coattails perhaps. So got a question. Second district, Golden, will he win? I would say yes only because if you look at the history of the second district, you'll call along Mike Michio held on to that seat. Once again, the power of the incumbency. I know Jared's in his first term, but you know, and he's done, he's been very careful much to the chagrin of a lot of Democrats all that during this first term. More profile. And to stake out this ground that, you know, he edges him away from the far, the further left elements of the Democratic party. So he's been, I think he's been paying a lot of attention to his base, if you will. And I think Dale Crafts is a strong candidate. He's a very personable guy. Really. Have you met him? No, I haven't. But I've been watching him on television and I've been saying, you know, he's not a nasty guy at all. He seems like a very, very personable, which he said, would you love to see? Right. Let's start with nice people. Yes. But I think that it's Jared's race to lose at this point. Okay. I really do, especially going into this November. That's a great compliment to the other candidate. So the other thing is, so we agree on that. Next question is landslide or close with Golden? Landslide or close? Not a landslide. Not a landslide. No, I don't think so. I mean, you know, two mains, second district is a whole different ball game. So I don't think I'd be surprised. Okay. So now on this question, Bill and I are 100% in agreement. We predict Golden. We predict that it's not going to be a landslide. Okay. Next question I want to ask you, Bill. Why did COVID become a political issue? How did COVID, the mask wearing, how did mask wearing become a political issue? Two words. Donald Trump. There we go. I mean, well, anything like this is going to, that requires government intervention, which this obviously has on so many different levels, is going to become a political issue because that's what politics is all about. That said, the president early on decided that this mask stuff was a bunch of nonsense, refused to wear it. I guess every once in a while he's putting one on, he's starting to come around. But I think he alone turned this, I think it would have been anyway, but he poured so much fuel on that fire that now it's got nothing to do with public safety. It's got nothing to do with transmission of the disease and it's got everything to do with labels. If you wear a mask, you're a weenie leftist liberal. Right, right. And if you don't wear a mask, you're a... Well, folks, I'm going to indicate to this audience that my next show, I intend to talk about those establishments here in Maine that require masks. I'm going to mention one, the Petro's Market, South Portland says no mask, no pizza. However, I've been to other stores that don't require masks. There'll be five of us in there with masks. One person came in, didn't have a mask. When I saw the bumper sticker that said, Janet Mills should go somewhere, I realized, gee, this was another political statement. So we agree on that. I have to say, can we agree, Bill, that if on the very first day, Trump got on and said, excuse me, this mask, please wear them. We go, oh my God, there we go. I think, well, he came kind of close to me. When Fauci was the new Brad Pitt, right. But, and I think that, yes, I do think it would have that impact. I mean, I got my mask on, what are we, seven feet? Right, we talked about it folks, and we decided to do the mask on it. Well, the problem is I couldn't see it because my glasses were fogged up. But I think if he were to do that, I think it would have a noticeable impact on the number of people wearing masks. I don't think he's capable of doing that because to do that would be even a tacit admission on his part, that he was wrong. And this guy just can't say he's wrong. And I'm not going to make any comment on that, but that's true. The next thing I want to talk about is, because let's face it, I'm a huge player in the Senate, huge player in this election. And folks, I went through and got some pictures of people that I was going to show, and my director Josh is going to put them up later. But I did, I tried to find a decent picture of McConnell and they're all like this. And I'm not trying to be mean here. I tried to find like, I got a good picture of Susan Collins, beautiful. So I wasn't trying to be mean, but out of the blocks, McConnell, is he going to win? You know, I would have said yes, but the more I see Amy McGrath, the more impressed I am. I mean, this is a really down to earth, not, you know, she will never be accused of being a member of the squad. You know, she's not a fire-breathing liberal. And every time I've seen her, I've said, whoa, this woman has some real sense, and I don't mean to disparage the squad, but she's much more attuned to the state in which she's running. So if it all comes crashing down in November in terms of not just the presidency, but the Senate, and if there is a major shift from the Republicans to the Democratic majority, I think it would not surprise me if McConnell went down. I mean, he was one of the least popular senators in his home state, right along with Susan Collins, as recently as what, this spring? Right. Bill, I love it when we disagree. I'm going to say that McConnell wins, and... I didn't say it was going to lose. I just said I wouldn't be surprised. Wouldn't be surprised? Oh, okay. I'm hedging. You're going to... I'll put an H down on there for hedge. And so either way, I also put the landslide a close, and I think we both agree it's going to be close. Yeah, no question. The reason why I think he's going to pull ahead is because I think he's got an incredibly powerful machine, and I think that they will use very strong cow-rove political tactics. You mean nasty? Yeah, I think it's going to get nasty. But all bets are off. All's fair in politics and war. And so I think he's going to win, and it's going to be close. Okay, the next one I want to go through, folks, is Collins and Gideon. And this is the picture, folks. This is the picture I chose of Susan Collins. Probably the nicest picture I've ever seen of her. And I also... Have you seen the pictures they're using? Yeah, and we're going to talk about that, by the way. One of the things I wanted to bring in was a newspaper, Letter to the Editor, in which a woman said, I'm a Democrat and I'm voting for Susan Collins, and let me tell you why. And she went through and spoke about all the good things that Susan's done, the bipartisan stuff, a position on gay rights, even when she voted for Kavanaugh. She said, I like his position on gay rights. I want to digress for a second, Bill. I want to ask you about the gay rights decision. Was that not one of the biggest fake-outs in political history? Which one? The Gorsuch decision on gay rights, getting civil rights, the gay rights decision that just came down. Gorsuch wrote it and John Roberts agreed. Right, right. It was on my show last week. Gorsuch faked everybody out, first of all, by writing the opinion. Secondly, by being very strong, Kavanaugh had a descent, a scathing descent, saying, what are you guys doing? I was just so impressed with Gorsuch. Well, you know, I continue to look at this as one of those stories where the train has long left the station. I mean, if you look at the trajectory on same-sex marriage in particular, how quickly this country reversed its position on that, it was, and some people are suggesting that what's happening with race relations right now might be following the same trajectory, where sometimes something, events act as a catalyst, whatever it might be, and you get this very profound, very fast, rapid social change. That's what happened with, first with LGBTQ rights, then with same-sex marriage. So I think it's an issue that the people on the right are kind of hanging onto, never gonna let it go. As long as they can. But the rest of the country has moved on. And I think that court decision was reflective of that. Bill, you might know that I wrote a book about my daughter with my daughter, transgender, who is transgender. When Trump was running, I remember him turning to the side, look at LGBTQ there for me, Caitlyn Jenner going to his hotel, treated with great respect. And then, who does he pick for his vice president but a man who prides himself on having a wife that will not teach at a school that either allows gay students or gay faculty. And so I've gotta say that when I read the Gorsuch decision, I would like to be a fly on the wall on every constitutional law class in this country when the professors say, you wanna talk about being faked when a president puts a man on there who comes out and writes the majority opinion. Anyway, I say thank you to Neil Gorsuch on that one. I wanna go to Collins and Gideon right now. Because the letter to that woman that wrote, did say a lot of- I think that was actually a column. Yeah, it was a main voices column. Yes. That ran in the press column. And this woman wrote and she said exactly. She said I'm a Democrat but I'm- It was Mary Ann Lynch, in fact, who wrote it. And she had a lot of good things to say. And Bill, I was gonna do a fake commercial. What if Sarah Gideon got on and said, I wanna commend Susan Collins on her tremendous efforts for the state of Maine in the past XYZ years. The so-and-so Bill. However, it's time for change. I don't like these negative ads, Bill, on the part of either of them. I don't know who started them first, but I would be cautioning Sarah Gideon. I don't think you should be so hard on her. Well, this is going to be, you've talked about the McConnell races. This one is probably gonna be one of the, well, certainly the most expensive race in Maine history. Right. And correspondingly, I think it's gonna be the nastiest. Yes. And a lot, you know what happens with these. You know, a lot of the stuff that you see on television is not, they let the PACs do their dirty work for them. Yes. Although even some of the candidate ads are getting a little, already, getting a little jagged. But I just think there's so much riding on this race and there's a lot of built-up frustration with Susan Collins, particularly in the middle. You know, I mean, Democrats are gonna be Democrats. Which is probably where I would have put myself. Right, and Republicans are gonna be Republicans, but I think the place to look right now is what's happening with the migration of the independent vote, which is traditionally supported, Susan Collins. And I don't, that's where her, that part of her base has significantly hollowed out. I have to say. And it's gonna be a fight for those people. I've always been impressed with her. Efforts at bipartisanship and folks. Well, two of the people that I wanted to talk about today, two of the greatest statesmen in Maine history. That would be Bill Cohen, Republican, George Mitchell, Democrat, two men who became friends. Bill Cohen being selected as the Secretary of Defense under a Democratic president. And Bill Cohen. Remember Bill Cohen in 1974? Yes. On the cover of Time Magazine. On the Secretary Committee. Yes. And he was the Republican who said, I'm gonna vote to him. So, be careful with your comparisons here in terms of. Well, and that's, and Bill, exactly my point, because my point was that Bill Cohen could see ahead. I think I need to distance myself from this president. Or maybe even more significantly, he said, I'm gonna do what I think is the right thing. And it was a classic profile and courage for him to do it back then. And I tell ya. Stunned people, because he was his kid from Maine. Nobody knew who he was. George Mitchell has always been a hero, but I used to watch Bill Cohen play basketball. And I went to Bowdoin. And I watched him play against Maine when Bowdoin was seven, eight, 900 students beat the University of Maine in 1962. I was at the game, Bill Cohen, and I talked about it with my friend, Bob Corey, when he was signing his book. And Bill says, do you remember? We won that game. And very fond of both of them. How about this, if Collins was Olympia Snow instead of Susan Collins, different story? In this election, without a doubt. We all know why Olympia left. Because she couldn't go to a town meeting anywhere in Maine without getting attacked by what was then the Tea Party. That's right, yeah. Excuse me, she said she'd had enough. So there's been a divergence there. Olympia, true to her, I don't know, principles, whatever it might be, said, I can no longer function in this political environment. Susan Collins, on the other hand, who once said she was only gonna run for two, or serve for two terms, is going for what, number five now? Right. And I would say that, to say that Susan Collins has evolved politically is an understatement. So I think that she's basically at this point, her focus begins and ends with getting re-elected. Am I gonna guess that your vote for the winner is gonna be, get in? Not ready to say that, but I will say that it's gonna be an extremely, no more of this 65, 67% for Susan Collins. This is gonna be a nail-biter. And I think, I would say that Gideon has, she's got a good chance. She really does. But again, it's July, you know what I mean? We just don't know what's gonna happen. That's why I had you on in July, so people can see all over. So you can hold all this against me in November. Typical run, but he hasn't shown a week before the, right? I can see it now, you're checking these things off, you're gonna call me in here on November, what, I'm gonna pick Gideon and I'm gonna pick it's gonna be very close. Yeah, okay, two or 3%. Okay, folks, we're now coming to the wire here. Trump and Biden. First question, who's gonna win? We learned in 2016 not to make predictions in July. And I have been saying throughout this whole year, we don't know, as I said earlier, what's gonna happen next month, let alone what the conditions on the ground are gonna be six months from now, or now a little under a hundred days from now. But I think that the circumstances are in so many ways different from what they were in 2016. This is shaping up as a referendum on Trump's handling of the pandemic. Plain and simple. Okay, I agree. If he blows that, he's gone. And there's, I've seen very little, no indication, actually, to date, that he understands how to get a handle on this thing. More importantly, that he's even interested in understanding that. You think he's, I sort of feel bad for him that, I mean, God, he was doing okay, the economy's doing good, and all of a sudden this thing comes along. I mean, he doesn't seem to be enjoying himself that much. All the things that could possibly, well, this is my other theory. I've got this crazy theory. Which is what? That he's self-sabotaging, you know? Bill, I don't mean. It's not that crazy. Bill, I wanna tell you something. I said that to my niece last week. I said, I think he knows he's gonna lose, and he's just gonna build his base, and I had the same thought, Bill. I don't mean to be chiming in like me too, me too, but I had the same thought. The other thing I said back when he was first elected, that, you know, November of 16, I predicted that he will not serve out his full first term, and I'm still not ready to give up on that. You gotta think about it in 60 minutes. I know, but just wait, just wait, because here's two, he's got two choices. He can lose and refuse to leave the White House and get carried out by Secret Service, or he can see the writing on the wall and a week before the election, if he's still tanking in the polls, walk away. Walk away. Okay, folks, you heard it first, Bill Nemitz on this show, but Bill. It might be wishful thinking. I know, I'm gonna say it's gonna be Biden. I'm gonna say- I agree, by the way. Okay, so we've grown that one. I say it's gonna be close in the electoral, but not so close. I think it's gonna be a pretty wide margin for the popular, but pretty close on the electoral. I disagree with that, because you know why? Look at the battleground states right now, Pennsylvania. You know, although Michigan, Wisconsin, well, obviously Florida, and he's tanking in Florida. So a lot of those states that put him over the top last time, you know, by tens of that, 20,000 votes, I think those states are all going in the other direction right now. So I'm not sure it's gonna be a squeaker, even electoral. Okay, folks, I'm closing with this final question. My buddy, Terry Garmy, wrote to me this morning, said, you need to ask this question. And I wrote back, said, Terry, not only am I gonna ask the question, it's my final question. You've already alluded to it. I asked our camera folks here. If he's elected, will he go, will he or is he gonna put up a fight such that it's gonna be front page news and you think he's gonna do that? Define fight. Well, he's just gonna refuse to go. He's gonna refuse to go and it's gonna be front page news. He's gonna try this, he's gonna try a bill, whatever. He will definitely challenge the legitimacy of the election, no question. No question, not a hard one. Whether he will actually hole up in his bedroom and refuse to come out on January 20th, be great TV, which is what he's all about. Okay, folks, we wanna wrap up. Bill, please come back. Alright, folks, I'll see you next month. I'm gonna do a Lock and Roll show, trivia show. Thank you. Thanks for coming.