 Hi everyone, and welcome to this week's installment for CNC Markets. My name is Ms. Schneider, Chief Strategist of MarketGauge.com. I'm going to do a brief video of you today covering a few of the asset classes commodity-related. And of course, this is all ahead of the FOMC, which will be announced at 2 p.m. Eastern Time tomorrow in the U.S., and just to add that to the long list of things that we have influencing the market this week, CPI, PPI, war, gas leakages, and a rally that we should have not been so surprised about because last week when I did the video for you all, I showed you how if we looked at the small caps in particular, you really needed to see that line in the sand of the 80-month moving average hold up. And so far at that 170 level, if we look at IWM, that has happened. So let's begin by talking about the dollar and particularly this $1 pair, which is the dollar versus the yen. So the dollar, if you just look at the cash chart of the dollar right now, it had a spectacular move up as of July and now peaked last week and is really basically consolidating above $105.50. So keep that in mind, especially if you like trading the currencies, because the dollar at $105.50 and above remains biased and bullish. Below we can start thinking, hmm, maybe somewhat of a trouble. And of course on the heels of FOMC, with four or so dovish comments by Fed members this week in the U.S., it is possible that they'll call for a pause, which of course will mean that the dollar might fall and of course gold rally will have a look. But taking a look strictly here at the yen-dollar relationship, remember we had that big day here, that 150 level we haven't cleared, but it hasn't really done very much since. The entire last one, two, three, four, five trading days are all within the bar of this day. So not so much in terms of clarity, obviously it would be very clear if we broke the low or broke the high. But in between a little bit dicer, and that's why I tell you about the dollar at $105.50. So let's put it to you this way at this point right now. If we take a look at $148.45 above, that would be again like $105.50 and $148.55 and above. It's probably more bullish in terms of the dollar yen ratio underneath maybe the end starts to get a little bit of movement there and you could start to think that the dollar might slip. And of course the biggest, biggest point that you're going to be looking at right now is this 50-day moving average at $146.80. Of course we had that mean reversion, but that's already in play and done because what we did is we went to the 50-day moving average in momentum. Interestingly enough, momentum being weaker than the price because you can see that the 50 days right here where we still have a distance to go from the 50-day moving average in price. So that tells me that if this does indeed fall the dollar to the yen and we see this 50 break, it would be another bearish diversion which could mean eventually that the dollar will break against the yen. Okay let's move on now to gold. So naturally with the war, the gold market rallied a bit that makes sense, but a bit. I actually would have thought that we would have seen much higher levels. However, if you remember last week we talked about 1865 and so today our closing level was really pretty much above that. We did not close above it yesterday. And so now we have to say can we can continue the pattern. So a couple of things of interest besides the fact that we had held that 1830. We did have, if you look at a GLD chart, not a gold futures chart, you'll see that there's a gap, gap down then a gap up, leaving somewhat of an island bottom. We're not seeing that obviously in the futures right here. So but we do see a gap higher. So right now that gives you a very clean line in the sand to be looking at that low of 1857.5 has to hold. You want that gap to hold. It doesn't hold. I would think that for whatever reason, maybe higher rates or what have you, the gold market is going to go back down. If it does hold then we've got a couple of other key areas. Look at the body of the candle here and the body of the candle yesterday on the actual close. So 1865, right there. Give it a take a couple of cents there. Here it says 1864 and change. So between 1864 and 1865 above I would continue to maintain more of a bullish bias below. Then of course, like I said, I'd be looking at that gap. You don't want to see it filled down to 1850. Then if it holds 1865, based on this activity that we're seeing today, we did have a death cross, but that's all the way up here. Your next area of resistance is definitely going to be somewhere up around 1880. And again, then we're going to get back up to 1890. And then of course, if you see these two highs here were at 1896, 1897. So there's going to be resistance along the way unless something so incredibly explosive happens, either dovish conversation by the Fed or an escalation of what's going on the unfortunate situation that we have right now in the Middle East. Now, what is also interesting here is the momentum. We have not gotten a mean version. All we've done is come back from the lows of momentum. And remember, we talked about this, the momentum at this time, which was down here at that point, gold was much lower. So the momentum is weak in relative to the price, but the price is still overall much stronger than when we saw momentum here. That tells me that if we can get a clearance of this Bollinger band in momentum, then obviously the next area of momentum we'd want to see clear is this 50 day moving average. But at this point, there's no divergence, bullish or bearish in terms of the gold chart. And really, I think this is going to be so heavily news driven. So remember those levels. Okay, so if we move on to WTI crude oil, December contract, if you just step back and see what I see, you can really see this huge basing action here, almost like a giant head and shoulders inverted bottom. And of course, we had that breakout here as we were talking about over 80. And on the big break, we basically tested the support. And now, of course, we've hopped right back above the 50 day moving average with an inside date, by the way, today to the trading day yesterday. So this chart is interesting, but I also want to show you because the momentum indicators are very, very important. Looking at this chart alone, what we can say is that we've got obviously the 50 day moving average right here at 83.66. So let's call that our pivotal point for tomorrow above 83.66, more bias on the upside below, more bias on the downside, 80 or ultimate support, of course. And if it does hold 83.66, we had a high the other day, didn't quite get up to these highs right here. So I would say 85.98 to 86 dollars a barrel would be our next place to have a look. This could actually fluctuate up and down between 80 and 90 for a while until some fresh news comes out. Either a deal that is made, that OPEC actually decides to increase production or something is going to be around, which of course would then cause the prices to screen. So don't get overly bullish or bearish at these levels is what I'm trying to say. I would anticipate $10 range. But for the very short term, like I said, keep your eye on about that 83.50 level below negative above bullish. And of course, then we'll take a look at that 86 and then 80, well, really 86 then 86.25. Until we get into the next cluster of real resistance, which is going to be somewhere around 88.40. Moving back into the metals, let's have a look at silver here. Silver chart. Interesting. This is the December contract. So with the silver chart right now, you could see there was nice clean bottoms here after this big, big move lower in March. And then again, the big move lower that we had early October. And now, of course, the war has been obviously just like with gold, somewhat of an incentive in keeping this moving higher. And also, you got to keep an eye on the interest rates for tomorrow with that meeting. Right now, the bond market is telling you that it may have bottom, but it could also just kind of go sideways here, which case then these metals can start to act independently more on other types of bullish incentives like, for example, inflation increasing because of the geopolitics. So for right now, what we're looking at right here is we can kind of forget about this bottom. We do not want to see that come back. We do not want to see this breakdown under 2160. However, if we move up to recent action, look at today's action was an inside day to the action the day before. That makes it pretty simple. When you have an inside day, you want to look at the high of the day. So the high today was 2218 above 2218. That tells me that we're probably going to move up a little bit higher again. And of course, what would be our next real level of resistance? We've had a lot of stuff happening between 23 and 2250. So I would say we'd have to look at 2250 first over that 2218. And then we can start thinking about 23 before we run into major resistance here at 50 day moving average at 2333. So that's kind of the upside targets. Obviously between 2160, then I would be looking at 2120. And of course, if we break down under these recent lows of 2080, that's not so positive. And lastly, of course, natural gas. So I have to say I feel really good about the fact that I may have been one of the first voices that got to talk to you about the base of natural gas and the fact that it looked like natural gas was ready to take a rally. We also had mentioned that at this point now it could take a rapid trip to four hasn't happened yet. So you can see we've stalled a little bit here. But the last couple of days make sense with PPI, CPI and FOMC. The war people don't really know what's going on yet. So with that inside day, again, let's show you that inside day rule. The high today was 3.471 above 3.471. I would think that this will continue its march higher with its next real resistance being somewhere here around 355. This is all short term, of course, then 380. And of course, you know, four, that's our kind of our holy grail area that we're looking at. And I would actually be probably thinking about taking some profit if you are more on a swing trade. On the flip side, however, with that same inside day, if we take out the low today of $3.32, then I think we have to go back and do a little bit of a reset closer to around that 310 to 311 level before we take another look to see if it goes lower than that. Okay, that's it for now. Hope you have a great trading day, great afternoon, and may you be safe. Thanks so much for watching and bye for now.