 Hello and welcome to NewsClick. We are going to take stock of the year 2018 with Paranjaya Guhatakurtha on what have been the most important issues that he sees for this year. Paranjaya, let us take first the issue of institutions, because we have seen a lot of institutional crisis from the court, to the CBI, to even the statistical organizations. Not to mention the Reserve Bank of India. Not to mention the Reserve Bank of India. How do you see as the major, shall we say, issues of confrontation with the government, if you will, and also the aftermath of this confrontation, and what does it bone for the future of these institutions themselves? Let us look at what has happened in the year that has gone by, which has never happened before. We have had different kinds of crises over the years in the judiciary. We have had judges being superseded. We have had all kinds of comments and allegations, but never before have we had a situation of the kind we had in January 2018. Four of the judges who were the senior most judges just after the Chief Justice of India addressed a media conference, a public conference. Judges don't talk to journalists while they're serving judges, and they pointedly criticized the then Chief Justice of India, Justice Deepak Mishra, saying the manner in which he was constituting the panels or the benches of judges as the master of the roster was objectionable. In fact, the argument was he was keeping the most controversial, controversial according to the government issues to his bench. And and and to judges who were perceived to be sympathetic to the ruling dispensation. Three of the judges, Justice Chela Mishra, Justice Madan Lokot, Justice Kurian Joseph have all retired, and Justice Ranjan Gogoi is the Chief Justice. And we've never had something like this before, it's unprecedented. So it was in fact a moment of crisis for the court itself because the Supreme Court has been also been under attack for shall we say the way it has conducted itself on various occasions, the kind of selections it has made, how much it has backed its own selections when the names have been returned. These are all matters which are festering with the Supreme Court, but this is a very unusual occurrence. Yes, you know in the past too there has been criticism of particular judgements. There have even been allegations of corruption against the judiciary. The question of how do judges select themselves? Who judges the judges? These are issues which have been debated and discussed at some length, but never before as what you would say are like a revolt played itself out in the open. That's how the year began and what a way to begin. Do you think that the Supreme Court has got over this crisis or it still remains? To some extent the crisis is not over perhaps. The judiciary especially the apex court is an institution where in which ordinary people have a lot of faith. Now it depends on which side you are arguing. You could say the so-called revolt of the four judges eroded the confidence of ordinary people in the judiciary. You could also argue that the faith of ordinary citizens had been getting eroded over the period of time which culminated in this kind of flashpoint. At one point of time people were wondering what would happen? Would the then Chief Justice of India Justice Deepak Mishra actually recommend the name of the next senior most judge to succeed him? But finally Justice Gogoi did indeed succeed him and time alone will tell to what extent ordinary citizens' faith in the judiciary remains more or less in that. There has been an erosion undoubtedly but hopefully not so badly eroded that it cannot be repaired. And compared to the other institutions and I would come to the shall be say the end of the year crisis of the CBI, the Central Bureau of Investigations called a caged parrot by the Supreme Court earlier. So what has happened to the caged parrot? Again unprecedented. Here is a police agency considered to be the premier investigating agency in India and it's an armed wing of the government. Absolutely. You know it's not just any other agency it's one of the armed wings of the state itself. Never before have you seen the two senior most police officials heading this agency first their fight out in the open trading allegations of corruption against each other. Never has this happened before. Finally in a amazing decision that took place after midnight both these two individuals were quote unquote suspended and another person put in charge and we really don't know finally whether Mr. Alok Verma who still officially the director of the CBI will be reinstated in his position before he formally retires at the end of January. Now what had happened was it also raised into the it raised questions about the manner in which these appointments were made. After the whole Vinit Narayan case we had the CBC the Central Vigilance Commissioner being the sort of a supervising authority over the CBI but that too and the manner in which the CBC acted raised more questions that provided answers. Also the fact that the you had the CBI head being sort of retired in advance or suspended or we could call it transferred whichever way language you want to use but without actually the Chief Justice who is supposed to be consulted on this matter is being also consulted. So the authority which appointed Verma the CBI director is not the body which took the decision to remove him and also it seems that the NSA Mr. Doval played a rather important role in the decision on which he has really no role. You know many have argued that perhaps Mr. Ajit Doval has become the most powerful individual of his kind. You know like once again let's- Should we call it an extra constitutional authority? That's a difficult difficult to say because all of this is under the surface nothing is out in the open unless you have some sort of a Nuremberg trial and you call Mr. Doval and he's interrogated we might never know the full truth but the point is let's understand they've been very very powerful national security advisors. Mr. Brijesh Mishra combined in him I mean he was both the principal secretary and the national security advisor in the past two there have been differences of opinion between the director of the CBI and others there have been allegations against both remember this is also the first time in the history of this country that two former directors of the CBI are being investigated by the same agency they headed. So yes there have been allegations of corruption there been all kinds of allegations but never have these differences never have been allegations been out in the open. In this way. In this manner you've had senior officials of the enforcement directorate raising allegations about the finance secretary you know the enforcement director being described as an extortion directorate in a petition in in a court petition by a former DIG who's been transferred from the CBI. So whereas differences of opinion rivalries, factionalism within these agencies have existed. Including leaks. But never before is it so upfront out in the open. What is I'd like to just draw your attention to one more thing Astana had six cases against him earlier. Now there's supposed to be only one. But he has only one and the the what what is that biotech Sterling biotech. Sterling biotech seems to have disappeared out of this lot of cases and there are people who's supposed to have disappeared from India with about 30,000 crores going to the banks. You're talking about Sterling biotech one of the notable features with the way in which 2018 began was the biggest ever bank fraud of its kind involving the Punjab National Bank with with diamond dealers like Nirav Modi and Mehul Choksi. Again you know this is unprecedented. You've had bank frauds before. But this time it was being investigated by the CBI. Mr Astana had been sort of put under the lens because of his daughter's marriage, the bills that Sterling biotech owners seem to have been footing. And the fact that suddenly he once once all this is over he ups and takes goes out of India with 30,000 crores owing to the banks. Absolutely and you look at that it started sometime ago with Lalit Modi and Vijay Malia becoming absconded. You add to that list the big diamond traders. This is one of the cases against Mr Astana and that's no longer in the list currently. We don't know what's happened to these cases but on this whole issue of Mehul Choksi, Nirav Modi and Jatin Mehta. Again you talk about non-performing assets. Windsome diamonds also known as Suresh diamonds is one of the biggest has owed a huge amount of money to the public sector banks and banks in general. And all these three individuals some of them are in London. Somebody has become a residence of Barbados. Somebody else has become a citizen of St. Kitts and Nevis. The short point is they're not in this country and they're unlikely to return in a hurry. Even as the government has raised the hue and cry and made a big deal out of trying to extradite Malia. Yes my schoolmate Mr Malia and hoping that he'll be able to come by but I don't know whether he they'll be successful in this endeavor. Yeah anyway it looks like the judicial process is not going to be that quick but at least in the case of Malia they have apparently made a reasonably good case in the court. But if we look at this particular CBI issue it still remains a open sore and we don't see a closure like the Supreme Court at least it tidied over. This doesn't seem to have tidied over. No nothing yes we don't see any closure yet far from it. We see only ongoing the crisis the crisis seems to be only ongoing. Coming back to the other institution. Other was the major tension shall we say with the reserve bank and it seems to have been on two counts. One is taking out the regulatory powers of the reserve bank on issues which are what would be called the digital fintech companies financial companies which operate with really apps and other things. So essentially trying to take those transactions of the regulatory powers for those areas out of the reserve bank perfume on which Viral Acharya had come out with open statement saying its money reserve bank deals with money therefore you have to have only one regulator. The second as we discovered later was with respect to the reserves that the reserve bank has and therefore asking that a significant part of the reserves be given to the government for its financial year which of course is also the lecture year. So do you think that the reserve bank crisis which led finally to the resignation of the reserve bank governor. This again is unprecedented. Reserve bank governors may have resigned early but not in this kind of crisis. Never before since the case of during Pandit Nehru's time when T.T. Krishnamachali was the finance minister, Benegal Raman Rao had quit the post of the governor of the reserve bank of India. The first time since then and T.T.K. Krishnamachali was a big crisis later as you remember. That was the Mundra Haridas Mundra crisis but I am saying before that happened and Nehru stood by his finance minister rather than the governor of the reserve bank of India. There have been differences galore between finance ministers and reserve bank governors but never before have we seen this kind of a what should I say this kind of a difference of opinion playing itself out. Now what is very very significant like Mr. Lok Balmah who was appointed by the government he was an appointee of the I mean he was appointed by the appointments committee of the cabinet so too was the governor of the reserve bank of India. Both took place under the Modi regime. More than two years ago before demonetization Dr. Urjit Patel had replaced Dr. Raghuram Rajan as the head of India's central bank and apex monetary authority. Now interestingly he suddenly put in his papers a little before the outcome of the assembly elections the assembly elections we can discuss that on the 11th of December. After the votes were cast but before the decisions over and above the points of friction that you mentioned one was about you know the payments issues of who regulates digital payments and the second issue was how are the reserves of the reserve bank of India to be used by the government how much should be given two important points should be noted. There were sharp differences of opinion between the reserve bank of India the country's central bank and apex monetary authority and the government of India the ministry of finance on issues of the prompt corrective action on banks particularly public sector banks not only there the declaration of financially stressed assets as non-performing assets so that there those issues can be resolved under the insolvency and bankruptcy code by the national company law tribunal among them were major power companies including the company set up by Adani, Ambani, SR etc etc etc but wait absolutely but let's again look at something else. Dr. Urjit Patel replaced Dr. Raghuram Rajan soon after he became the governor we had demonetization and then he was perceived to be a person who supported the government wholeheartedly on a very very controversial highly disruptive decision which Raghuram Rajan had opposed in his term as governor. Absolutely and not only that I'm here drawing a parallel between Alok Varma and Dr. Patel, Dr. Urjit Patel both were government appointees appointed by the appointments committee of the camp both were perceived to be rightly or wrongly they would be quote unquote loyal quote unquote subservient to the Narendra Modi government and we found both in their own way thought that enough is enough never before as I said something like this has happened and today the gentleman who has replaced Dr. Urjit Patel he was the face of demonetization he as the in the finance ministry was the person who kind of supported demonetization as is the person who replaced who is who who replaced Dr. Arun Subramaniam as the chief economic advisor and is currently the new CEA. So these critical appointments which were always you know you had this facade of these organizations being autonomous and independent but there were always political appointees but I never before I can argue has the appointments been made in such a contentious and prison manner. Well Mr. Shaktikanth Das part of being in the IS senior IS of officer before he retired was also a main history and some somebody has quipped that I hope that he will not make RBI also history. So we can hope that all these institutions whether it be the Supreme Court of India whether it be Central Bureau of Investigation and the Reserve Bank of India would be resilient enough to withstand the shocks and the turbulence that has they've had that has been inflicted on these institutions I should say I'm really hopeful because these are institutions their individuals come and go governments come and go but these are very very critical institutions and the more ordinary citizens lose their faith in these institutions the worse it is for every person in this country. You know Dr. Pranab said came on to news click as you know for a discussion on the Central Statistical Organization and he made a very important point he said you know you can have policies which the government makes but the evidence must be independent that should not be informed by the government's policies because if the evidence is also tainted that the policies have no meaning and CSO has also been shall we say also victim of the credibility crisis of the institutions because it's back series which it prepared seems to have been shall we say how do I phrase it? Doctored in a way to show UPS growth is lower than NDA otherwise it doesn't make any sense if you take all other economic data into account and also what Professor Dr. Mandal had done that he had prepared a back series for the GDP once that you have a change of method of computing GDP which showed what would be expected from other economic indicators do you think this is also another blow to institutional crisis that we see under the current regime? Undoubtedly. One more institution has been undermined as you rightly pointed out as Dr. Pranab and rightly pointed out every political party will take certain decisions you will slice and dice the data when cherry pick what suits you to arrive at to justify whatever policy you have but the data itself you know we know that calculation of gross domestic product they are imperfect it based on sampling techniques based on extrapolation based on a whole lot of assumptions you make you change the methodology of calculating these numbers then when people asked for the back series you appointed a committee and then you start nitpicking and then you have the NETI IO which has replaced the planning commission together with the central statistics office which finally releases this data ostensibly to show that the performance or in terms of the rate of growth of GDP the current regime the Narendra Modi government's performance is better I mean again I feel sad as a citizen of this country to acknowledge never before have data evidence been so presently been sought to be manipulated for narrow political gains handmade in of everyday politics you know last question I have a few because we can go on for the year much longer do you think that all of this finally the test is what the people feel that all of this whatever you may do with the data whatever the institutions may say ultimately it is a people who speak do you think this elections the mini general elections which people have called in the semifinal five states out of which three are the Hindi speaking states and as you know BJP won most of its two 82 seats from the Hindi heartland and this three states which went were all controlled by the BJP we went to the polls were all controlled by the BJP do you think people have spoken their mind about the kind of institutional crisis which has been imposed in the country and of course on the livelihoods the farmers crisis all of these issues for which data is sought to be doctored but the reality is there in front of the people the Indian voter she surprises us every time however much we like to personalize politics Modi Banam Rahul Gandhi or what Modi was in 2013-14 and where Modi is today the short point is I think the issues that resonated the issues that mattered most to ordinary voters and ordinary citizens the crisis in rural India the agrarian crisis the farm crisis too the inability to create jobs for young people and the impact that decisions like demonetization has had on the economy I think these are among the very very important issues that mattered and I can add one more the attempt that has been made to divide this country along religious lines I think there is a section of ordinary voters who are seeing through this game by political parties and politicians and for them when they vote they make a clear choice you know we can rationalize and we can say you know politics is a choice between the lesser equals all politicians are the same all parties are the same typical middle class reaction I know but the ordinary voter she knows he knows that some things will not change but still they vote for change and I think the coming four months are going to be very very very very crucial perhaps even more turbulent than much of 2018 has been with the earth kumbing sought to be converted into a maha kumb how much religion can play is a question how much hatred can play is a question Yogi Adityanath too sir is now talking about development I well development of what we don't know yes as we saw non-productive asset like statues statues I mean if you want to have a statue bigger than the statue of Sardar Vallabhbhai Patel which is in Gujarat in Ayodhya or Fezabad will that make a difference the changing of names more and more people asking where are the good times more and more people are saying what happened to all the black money that you were supposed to bring from abroad then you described it as chunami jumla people are asking this question where are the jobs that you promised us instead of that you had a botched up way in which you implemented the goods and services tax you disrupted the economy by demonetization hurting the weakest sections of the population the women senior citizen the children who are dependent on women daily wage laborers small shopkeepers and traders farmers who still bore with it in the belief that jobs would come but it didn't I think it's boomerang I think in the coming months we will know and when elections take place in April May assuming they will take place as per schedule the 17th general elections we will see what will happen but I have a feeling and my instinct tells me that what happened in 2014 and what will happen in 2019 would be very different for the first time in 2014 the party which got a majority in the Lok Sabha the lower house of parliament with 282 seats got 31.4% of the vote but 90% of all the votes that the BJP got were stacked in 60% of the Lok Sabha constituency that means in out of 5143 in 299 90% of all the votes that the BJP got were there and the remaining 10% was scattered over 40% of the constituencies this is what Praveen Chakravarty of the congress describes as a black swan moment on ethologies always thought all swans were white until they actually saw a black swan can this happen again it seems most unlikely will once again 2019 be fought on personalities rather than issues can 2014 became akin to a American style presidential election that was Trump versus Clinton this was Modi versus Rahul will that happen again or will issues issues like joblessness the agrarian crisis the the undermining of institutions matter I would like to believe the second will matter more but time alone can tell Praveen thank you very much for being with us let's hope that this does not become a matter of personalities but a matter of politics political issues and this is what the parliamentary system is supposed to be unlike a presidential system tends to personalize the election very happy new year to you Praveen and to news to New Slick and our viewers this is all the time we have today we'll come back next year again for our years roundup so this is goodbye to 2018 and the beginning of 2019 hopefully a better year