 Okay, Traders, that is 1 p.m. London time. Welcome to this week's live market and trade analysis session with me, Patrick Munley. Before we get going today, as always, I want to adhere to the risk disclaimer. Most pertinent to today's presentation is the fact that the views and opinions expressed by me are solely mine. They're not indicative or representative of those held by Tickmill UK or Tickmill Europe Limited. So for those of you who have the first time, a very brief introduction to myself. After I graduated from university, I joined a city PLC consulting firm. I left with some colleagues and went on to successfully co-found and exit a consulting startup, which was focused on C-suite executive search for technology businesses. Essentially, I had a front row seat to the dot com bubble, witnessing people make and lose a fortune in the market, sometimes quite literally overnight. So I decided to explore my curiosity for markets with some capital to play with. And some time on my hands, I started day trading the S&P 500, or probably more appropriate at that stage, day gambling. After some early beginner's luck, I racked up some pretty solid gains. However, as is often the case, my beginner's luck ran out. And as the market phase changed, I began to average down into what ultimately became significant losing positions. I eventually lost a six figure sum to say this was a gut wrenching and sobering experiences and understatement. So I really had to stand back and figure out if it was feasible for me to make a living from the markets. So I decided to get serious about trading. And I sought out a mentor with an excellent trading track record. Working with my mentor for a period of 18 months to two years was a time during which not just my technical game in terms of researching, developing, and extensively back and forward testing strategies that crucially suited my personality, and all of which were underpinned by a rigorous risk management approach. But most importantly, during that period of mentorship, I significantly developed my mental game. So what does that mean? Well, it means I had really had to make the watershed shift from being a highly goal orientated individual focused on financial gains to becoming purely process orientated. So what does that mean? Well, it means I had to stop focusing on what I could make from the markets and start focusing solely on managing my mindset to allow me to consistently execute my trading strategy, oftentimes in the face of negative feedback from the markets in the form of losing trades. But once you become process orientated, and you have a professional trading mindset, and you understand the true nature of trading being a numbers game in which you're simply playing the probabilities, you lose that emotional investment in that hellish emotional roller coaster of living and dying by the outcomes of individual trades. So I'm no longer concerned with the outcome of individual trades, or even a small string of trades, my focus on the next 100 trades, because I know if I focus on excellence in execution, my edge will demonstrate itself over an extended series of outcomes. My multi strategy approach has delivered profitable annual returns since 2008. Since 2013, I've also been managing investor capital through a managed account service again, delivering annual positive returns. Since 2010, I've mentioned hundreds of private traders of all experience levels from complete novices to former CME floor traders in developing the technical and mental skills to reap consistent returns from the markets. In addition to my fund management and mentoring, I'm a resident market expert exclusively providing market and trade analysis to tick mill clients. I provide an in-depth daily market outlook, where I break down the technical drivers and the fundamental dynamics for the trading day ahead. I also provide daily technical trade setup videos for about two to three markets that I'm actively tracking for that trading session. I share those through the tick mill trading view account. I'll post a link for that at the end of today's presentation. I also run tick mills e-mini strategy group, where I post a daily trade plan for the S&P 500 or the e-mini S&P 500 futures contract depending upon which one you trade. That's specific for the cash trading session for the day ahead. I give my bias for the trading day, specific action areas where I'm looking to engage the market. Those pre-market plans have delivered now in excess of six and a half thousand points of profit since we launched the group in April 21. The second tick mill strategy group I run is for traders who really want to take their trading to the next level. The tick mill futures telegram group is a real-time environment where on a daily basis I share in-depth insights, analysis and real-time trades. I also provide live commentary during the opening hour of the cash trading session in New York. These sessions essentially provide a platform for traders to watch how I identify asymmetric trading opportunities. They ultimately help traders to develop a professional and consistent approach to navigating the markets and most importantly mastering those mental mind games that have to be made. One, you certainly need to be aware of them and two, in terms of capturing your own mental approach and emotions in response to market data is a key milestone in developing as a professional trader and becoming consistently profitable in the market. That gives you a flavor of where it is I'm coming from. Let's jump into today's charts. As always, before we get going here, what I would say is that if you have any questions or there are any charts you'd like me to take a look at that I don't cover in my presentation, then feel free to drop those into the chat and I will cover them off at the end of today's session. Equally, if you have any questions to do with trading that aren't specific to any trading instrument, feel free to drop those into the chat and I'll cover those off at the end of the session. Okay, so let's get things going here with the S&P 500. As those of you who were here from last week will know, we were looking for further upside post a corrective move and we got that set up. Personally, I've been long this week and looking for that 41-46. That's the equality objective and for those of you here for the first time when I talk about an equality objective, I'm talking about an equal legs move in the market versus the first swing and the reaction low there at $39.02. My target was $41.46 and we achieved that yesterday into the FOMC meeting. So in terms of the next setup or next opportunity, I'm looking for some consolidation here as we head into the cash trading session today and I'm going to be looking for an upside break through the resistance in that 41-65 area to take out the prior swing highs 41-80 and what I'm looking for is a test here of this weekly R2 and projected ascending trend channel resistance coming in 41-90s. What you'll often find with these futures is that as they get near to this big figure level, so obviously 42-100 is the psychological magnet for the market, you'll often find that as we head into those 41-90s that we get a sharp pull back before making the next push. So I'm looking for that dynamics play out today as long as we maintain momentum divergence here on the four-hour timeframe. You can see we've got potential for triple momentum divergence as we test into that area. We're watching for bearish reversal patterns there to engage on the short side, looking for a three-wave corrective move back in to retest these prior highs 41-09 and as low there as daily projected range for 40-90. And then from there again, I'll be watching for bullish reversal patterns to reengage on the long side to take out that 42-100 and our next technical upside objective is 42-22. At this stage, can't really consider any meaningful bearish price action until we take out this internal trend line support here which currently comes in around the 40-80 level. Moving to the NASDAQ NASDAQ also traded to target. Last week, we were looking for the pullback into the 11,800s to act as support. Lots of nice bullish reversal patterns there and we have traded up to test into our target area of 12,600. So what am I looking for with the NASDAQ now? Well, I'm anticipating that this is a five-wave sequence that we're playing out here. So I'm looking for another leg to the upside and my target, my next target for the NASDAQ is 12,770s. Now that's the 127 extension of this last leg to the downside. Also, we have the weekly R2, 12,749 and daily projected range resistance 12,800s. So again, similar to the idea with the S&P from there, I'm watching for a pullback, looking for a three-wave move back into these prior highs, prior resistance to act as support, 12,340s, 12,300. Look to set a base there and watch for bullish reversal patterns to engage on the long side, looking for the next leg to the upside. My next upside objective is going to be 13,049 on the NASDAQ. Note also, we've got this trend line resistance coming in at that 12,700 area as well. So I'm looking for some interim pullback from that 12,700 zone. But as we then hold prior highs as support, we look for further upside extension to target 13,049. Dow Jones, YM futures contract. Again, traded to our target last week. We were looking for pullbacks to find support, 33,702 target, 34,199. That trade played out. We got some rejection there. Price action has been a bit messy. Yesterday, certainly, we saw some volatility. We are testing resistance now, 34,400s. Whilst we hold there, there is the potential, and certainly a dynamic to be cognizant of for you guys is that obviously, when we had the Fed in an overtly hawkish cycle and rhetoric, the Dow was actually leading the market higher. And the reason for this is, essentially, that the Dow contains more of what you consider to be value stocks, your cyclicals, utilities, healthcare, etc. And so in a tightening cycle, funds tend to flow into those value stocks and you tend to see the YM or the Dow Jones out perform. But with the potential shift in perspective yesterday from Fed Chair Powell, obviously, they raised rates by 25 bits and are likely to do so in future. Or certainly, he suggested they're likely to do so in future meetings. I think with the world's pause now. But the market is taking that as a bullish signal that there is an end in site now, a terminal rate to this rate move. And as such, starting to see some outperformance in the NASDAQ, obviously growth stocks there. So as we get the loosening in financial conditions and capital becomes a little bit freer, that supports the growth stocks. And you'll generally get the S&P following the NASDAQ to the upside. And what we'd anticipate then will be there'll be underperformance by the Dow Jones. And so that's why I'm seeing, we're seeing a bit of a lag here. So I don't immediately have a trading opportunity as such here in the Dow Jones, I think we'll see a bit of congestion, a lot of sideways action now as the potential of the NASDAQ and the S&P lead to the upside. So nothing for me to do in the Dow at the moment. DAX. So we were looking at pullbacks into this trend line support and consolidation and break to the upside. We are trading just shy of our target zone, 15,500. So what am I looking for now with the DAX? Well, we have certainly got some momentum divergence and play here. We've got the high volume low on the weaker chart, 15,530. So what I'm anticipating, similar to these other equity indexes now, let's see, we've got five wave secrets potentially here. So let's say we run up into the 5,600 area, this projected ascending trend line resistance. So I'd be looking for any move into this zone. As long as we maintain momentum divergence, I make new high in price, fail to make similar highs in terms of the momentum study. Then I'm going to be watching for bearish reversal patterns here. And I think we get a tradable pullback. And what I'd be looking for would be initially move into what could be the start of a significant wedge pattern. Let me just tidy this up here. So any move up into this 15,500, 15,600 area, I watch for bearish reversal patterns to engage on the short side. What I'd anticipate is from there, we pull back into the prior highs, trend line support. And I'd look for a three wave corrective move back into test our current potential wave for low. And we have weekly projected range support coming in there at 15,000. So that's the type of pattern I'm watching for in the DAX. And obviously that aligns with the perspective in terms of the NASDAQ and the S&P is there. If we see a deeper pullback, if we look at the daily chart, let me just blend that up here. So in the daily chart, we could actually see a deeper corrective move. So we're trading up into our target zone here, 15,500. Watch for if we don't find support in that 15,000 level could see a deeper pullback. We have an S3. We have this daily sending trend lines for 14,800. Once again, even if we do pull back to there, I'll be watching for bullish reversal patterns to reengage on the long side, looking for further upside extension. Let's see where we can head there. We can start to think then about 15,800 as the next upside objective for the NASDAQ. Moving to the Nikkei. Let's get a multi-time frame view. So the Nikkei we were looking for a break to the upside. We haven't had that just yet. We had the Asian markets coming back from the Lunar New Year holidays and we have been in a consolidation pattern. So what I'm looking for here with the Nikkei, let's just pull this across. So I look for any pullbacks into the projected pitchfork support, 27,150. Watch for bullish reversal patterns there. Our next upside objective for the Nikkei is 27,920. At this stage, obviously any close back through this projected pitchfork support would be a bearish development and we'd then be looking at downside targets. But for now, against this projected support area, bullish reversal patterns engage on the long side. The Nifty. So last week you'll remember we were looking for a pullback into test support at the 17,630, which was a symmetry swing objective. When I talk about symmetry swings, what I'm talking about is equal moves in a cycle. So as we were trading up into this high, the last major correction was here. So we overlay that versus our high and that gave us a 17,626 target for the corrected move. We trade into there, a nice bullish reaction trade up into trend channel resistance, 18,094,4 pulling back again. And we're testing this area gain as support. Now, I want to be careful here, because if we take, let me draw this in here. If we don't hold here as a double bottom, then there are, there is another downside objective that we want to pay attention to. Let's just get rid of that. We'll just keep that. Don't bring in our fib retrosion tool. So if we can't hold this double bottom, the next area of interest for the Nikkei is going to be an equality objective versus swing high at 18,383. So that gives us the 78.6% retracement of our last five wave sequence to the upside. This move is overlapping in nature. So it suggests at this stage that it's corrective. That's the information we need to take from the overlapping natural and price action. And so any move into this target zone, 17,220, 17,285. Another possibility is that we trade in there, watch for bullish reversal patterns from there to once again engage on the long side, looking for our next leg to develop to the upside. Moving to the bonds, a positive response obviously from treasuries as they rallied yesterday as bond yields come down, treasury prices increase. Obviously there's an inverse relationship there. Still waiting though, we haven't had the breakout through our 109.60. I'm watching for a breakthrough there. If we do on a daily timeframe, a daily close through there, I want to re-engage on the long side. We've got a target then at 116.63. So that's the second bit still remains valid and we're just consolidating below our breakout zone there to re-engage on the long side. Moving to forex here, starting with the dollar index. I was long the dollar index as we broke down into our target zone, covered that yesterday for a small loss. I'm still of the belief at this stage given the technical setup. Let me just extend that through there. So have we got a five wave sequence here that can play out in terms of the dollar index to complete a five wave sequence? So any move into this 130 area, as long as you maintain momentum divergence, I still think we can see at least a three wave corrective move play out in the dollar index. Obviously if we lose the 100 level, all bets are off and we are heading down to I think I mentioned 98 as our next downside objective for the dollar index. But let's see how we trade if we test this weekly S3, daily projected range support and this descending trend channel support as well. Watch for bullish reversal patterns there. Obviously it's key, well for me anyway in terms of my strategies, it's key that we don't make a new low in terms of the momentum study there. So watch for that divergence to be maintained, i.e. new low in price, no new low momentum. Bullish reversal patterns, there's an opportunity there on the long side to play just for a correction. I'm not expecting anything meaningful. I think this trend channel resistance currently comes in 103.30s on the daily time frame. Rejection from there is going to be the next leg to the downside and I am looking for a break of 100 down to target that 98 level as our next downside objective. Euro dollar, we have the ECB out shortly. Have they already announced? They were looking, we're looking for a 50 bits hike from the ECB and what I'm looking for here is a three-way corrective move back into test. The prior highs here, 109.30s is the area to watch from there. We get bullish reversal patterns. I want to engage on the long side. Our next upside objective for the Euro dollar is 112.66. That's the 61.8% retracement of our 2021-2022 down cycle. That's the target there on the Euro dollar. Again, can't really get meaningfully bearish until we take out this interim trend channel support through 108.70s. Darling, BOE have been out and relatively initial negative reaction to the rate move there. I'm still looking at this as a bull flag scenario. So any moves into 122.20s watch with bullish reversal patterns to play the break of this bull flag resistance back through 124 gives us a test of 125 as the next upside objective for sterling. So remain constructive on sterling certainly above this daily trend channel support 122.20s. Dollar, again, so last week you'll recall I was looking for resistance at the trend channel here, 130.40s, 130. We've seen that. So this move is starting. It looks like it's starting. I would anticipate a retest price cycle lows now. 127.20s as balances remain contained. We look for a downside extension. We are targeting 125 as the next downside objective. We move things along here from a time perspective. So let's take a look at the Aussie as our proxy for these antipodeans. I am looking for resistance now to develop 71.50s, 71.60s, weekly R1, 71.80s. So we've got momentum divergence. So we're looking for a rejection in this area to play for a three wave corrective move, initially targeting 70.50s. Now, if buyers don't see that, we can see a deeper pull back into test support back to the 69.80s. However, if we do get bullish reversal patterns from there, I'd be looking to move out of short positions, reengage on the long side. We are targeting a test of 73.30, which is that weekly trend channel resistance. And we also have that equality objective 73.40s versus our swing structure and swing low at 66.20s. Moving to gold. So gold traded up into the targets over 1950 is what we've been looking for. I'm now looking for a correction to insure here. We have momentum divergence in play, making new highs in price. We're not getting any meaningful new high in momentum. So I'm watching now for a breakthrough. Let's draw this in for you guys. So we look for a break here of support back through these prior cycle highs in 1950. So look for a breakthrough 1950 to target a three wave corrective move down into test trend channel support at the 1900 level. Then from there, we let the bullish pattern refresh and we watch for bullish reversal patterns at the 1900 level to engage on the long side, looking for the next upside objective, which is going to be a test towards the $2,000 mark. At this stage, it would take it closed back through 1900 to suggest a more meaningful high in place. And then we'd be looking for a deeper correction before high once again. Moving to crude oil. This one's getting close to a setup for me. I had a good running crude in January, racking up 300 or 400 pips of profit. So I'm looking for a test of the $75 level here at crude oil. We are then looking for bullish reversal patterns. We look for a break then back through this internal trend channel resistance to engage on the long side. It gives us a nice chunky target above here at 8380, which is the daily equality objective versus the swing low at 7250. So still looking for that test. Obviously any close back through the $74 level would be a bearish development. Hopefully you move back down to test 72s as the next support on the downside. Last but not least, let's take a look at Bitcoin. So Bitcoin, we are looking for the yearly pivot to get tested here. So 26,800 is our next upside objective. So we are looking for further upside objective. Might see a bit of stickiness at 25,000. They tend to stall out around these round fingers. But ultimately we look for that 26,000. Let's get it in here, the yearly pivot. So I want us to move up into the yearly pivot. And from there, I'll be looking for a more meaningful correction to ensue. Something then equivalent to our potential wave one low there. So let's take a look on the four hours roll out. And so once we get if we get up into that 26,000 area, what we will be looking for is something similar in scope and scale to what did we get here. So we have 18,360. So about 2000 pullback. So what we look for is move into the pivot and then 26 back down should see us trading at that 24,000 area. And then from there, we'll see balls are going to step back in for the next leg to the upside. Okay, so that concludes the whistle stop tour for this week. I hope you found that helpful. Let me see now if I have any questions. Sha, sorry, I missed the telegram link. Look, I'm going to post the Facebook link, first of all, into the chat. So for those who are interested in receiving that daily trade plan for the S&P 500, I want to learn more about the Telegram group and what's required to access that. You just simply request access to the Facebook group that will get you in there. And then you can PM me for details on how you can join the Telegram trading group. What you will require as a minimum there is a funded tick mill accounts. And then you can get access to that group and receive much greater insight and in-depth interaction with me on a daily basis. And like I said, real-time trades as well. Another question, may we see Mele, N-E-L-I, let's see, I'm not familiar with that off the top of my head. Is this what you're talking about? Okay, let's have a look. You've got the chart is telling us anyway. So yeah, we're in a bullish. So on the weekly timeframe, we have taken out descending trend channel resistance. So initially, we start to think about a corrected move. So we bring in the trend-based fib extension, our first port of call obviously is in equal legs, which we have come just shy of. So looking at the current structure here, I would say we are in a sequence that is about to complete into 1260. So let's see if we get this type of scenario. So I'll be looking for a move into 1260, 1270, watch for bearish reversal patterns there, momentum divergence, and then you're going to get a three-way correction back into test the breakout zone. And then from there, you see a bias step back in for the next big leg to the upside or potential for more meaningful high in place. As always, what you want to be watching as we get into that area, that 1260, 1270, watch for that momentum divergence to be maintained, and that will be your trigger then as an opportunity on the short side. You can also see the potential for a big inverse head and shoulders scenario to play out on a move back into 890. But first port of call is going to be 1260, 1270, momentum divergence maintained, bearish reversal patterns, retest that breakout point at 10,000, and let's say 10,090, 11,000 area. Does that make sense, Orhei? Okay, I don't see any other questions coming through. As always, traders, plan the trade, the plan, and most importantly, manage your risk. Until next week, thanks very much.