 Welcome traders to another Tick Mill weekly market outlook for week commencing the 17th of January with me Patrick I'm in the US It's going to be a pretty light week for Economic releases as most of the attention will focus upon earnings reports No worthy bond and equity markets will be shipped on Monday for Martin Luther King Day minor Releases will include housing indicators such as starts during December Minus 2% a month a month that's going to be released on Wednesday We then get home resales for December minus 0.5% month of a month expected That's released on Thursday industrial readings will include the Empire and Philly Fed regional manufacturing prints on Tuesday and Thursday respectively against relatively quite US Macro calendar the main focus in the US markets will be upon Q4 and full year earnings season after its check and start via mixed results for Individual banks at the end of last week next week We have 35 of the S&P 500 firms will update earnings including names like Goldman Sachs on Tuesday Be a very more concerning on Wednesday Netflix on Thursday United Airlines Wednesday in American Airlines Thursday analysts have set fairly modest expectations for how the season is expected to evolve so from a technical perspective the Dollar index came in to test our anticipated support zone and on Friday We did actually put in an outside reversal Campbell. So what's going to be key as we head into next week? Well, firstly any move back through the prior Lows of last week at 94 60 will be a significant bearish development And I would anticipate a very quick move down to test the yearly pivot 93 80s and then through there We will be looking for 93 20s, however with Friday's outside reversal candle There is the potential to push up now and retest prior support potentially act as resistance at 95 60s However, as any pullbacks remain shallow and supported into the 95 area There is the potential to be extend higher back into prior cycle highs in 96 92s And then on route to the upside Target zone of 97 46 to as high as 98 14 So really what's going to be key as we're coming to the beginning of the week is how we respond As we head into London open on Monday. Do we get that upside follow-through or do we roll over? Suggesting a simple profit-taking or short squeeze on Friday and take out these people 94 60 So it's going to be an interesting start to the week for the dollar index Eurozone very light in terms of Data next week really the core eurozone markets only have these any W measure of investor Expectations that is among the key fresh survey based forms of evidence to inform GDP growth expectations And we also get general readings for German Germany and the eurozone Aggregate and they arrive on Tuesday from a technical perspective The euro similar to the dollar index got a peek through the trend line resistance But a sharp reversal on Friday closing back underneath the trend line. So What's going to keep for the euro's we start the week is can we hold this prior breakout zone at? 113 80s support if we do I'm anticipating a grind higher to ultimately get a look at the yearly pivot 116 40 if however We fail to hold this support area and certainly any closes back through the pivot here at 113 30 would be a bearish development and We will be then having to think about the break of the trend line support here and through the monthly range support currently coming in at 112 70 that happens then we're looking for a test down towards 110 So again similar to the dollar index can be really key how? We open up as we head through the Asian session tonight and then into the London session tomorrow morning So we've got key levels to pay attention to In terms of Japan Tuesday is the Bank of Japan's latest policy decision The BOJ is set to keep its policy unchanged And most of the focus will therefore be on the central bank's price and growth outlook Especially in lines of recent headlines according to Reuters BOJ policymakers are debating how soon they can start Communicating an eventual interest rate hike with inflationary pressures and a more hawkish Federal Reserve in Boldening such a move BOJ has already started gradually facing out of stimulus program But markets have also been speculating about constant tightening the inflation projections are likely to be revised upwards for 2021 as price pressures in Q4 have exceeded expectations the assessment of 2021 GDP may be cut down for 2022 Prime Minister Kashida Record-sized fiscal stimulus package is set to help growth projections But the exact increase will be crucial for market expectations from a technical perspective Dolly Yen sold off from the ascending trend line resistance We're going to move back down into monthly ranges of poor and we saw profit-taking and some buyers step in there on Friday now as the Prior highs here at 115 40 actors resistance We look for a three-way corrected move to ultimately get us down to test 112 50 before we see a buyer's gonna step in and take this higher again at this stage It would really take a close through 116 37 prior cycle highs and projected monthly range resistance to suggest an early resumption of the upward drift and a target up to 117 70 UK it's all about inflation next week has a Wednesday we get headline CPI It's expected to remain just over 5% year-of-year with core inflation minus 4% year-of-year the month over month Price increases have exceeded Consensus expectations for five of the past seven months if that's any guide The inflation reading may be less stale than elsewhere because Omricom Was taking off first in Europe and then made its way elsewhere Higher prices by a damaged supply chains could be one consideration behind expectations for retail sales to decline in Friday's December reading Other key readings on the UK job market will also matter employment reports Lands on Tuesday the job prints for UK jobs in October plus 74,000 revised down from a plus 160 Revealed at the ending of the government furlough scheme had little impact on the state of the job market flash estimates for November point to Another strong gain of plus 257,000 further reinforcing the tightness in the UK labor market The reading will further inform whether the BOE will continue their tightening cycle after a surprise 15 basis points Hike in December markets are currently pricing in a hike for the February meeting from a technical perspective the sterling Took out its trend line in a decisive fashion Now look for pullbacks into that trend line prior resistance to act as support 135 70s from there We watch for bullish reversal patterns to engage on the long side looking for a fifth wave extension up into monthly range resistance 138 19 and 138 35 before the potential for another profit taking pullback at this stage It would take a close back below the 135 50 to suggest a false break and setting sites back down on a test of the pivot there to 134 20s Last but not least running things out in Australia Australian jobs smash consensus estimates last month with a game of 366,000 swiftly recapturing the almost identical number of jobs last during the three-month lockdown in From August to October job game was not from newly created jobs But rather primarily a function of workers re-entering workforce after being separated from their employment There still exists a hefty pool of job-attached workers who are either unemployed or not in the labor force that should slowly reintegrate into the work over coming months, which will subsequently drive employment and participation rates up from a technical perspective Australia dollar found resistance into the 73 20s. So we're now looking at a test of the pivot here 71 79 and the ascending trend line support as long as we hold here and get some bullish reversal patterns Then we're looking to move up into the yearly pivot 74 30s and the descending trend line resistance 74 50s However, any close back through the pivots once at 71 70s will be a bearish development suggesting the current correction is complete And then we'll be looking at extension down into monthly projected range support and price cycle lows just below the 70 handle So all eyes will be on this test of the ascending trend line support and pivot zone as always trade us plan the trade trade the plan And most importantly manage your risk until next week. Thanks very much